N° 3698 Assemblée Nationale

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N° 3698 Assemblée Nationale N° 3698 ASSEMBLÉE NATIONALE CONSTITUTION DU 4 OCTOBRE 1958 QUINZIÈME LÉGISLATURE Enregistré à la Présidence de l’Assemblée nationale le 16 décembre 2020 RAPPORT D’INFORMATION DÉPOSÉ en application de l’article 145 du Règlement PAR LA COMMISSION DES AFFAIRES ÉTRANGÈRES en conclusion des travaux d’une mission d’information constituée le 25 novembre 2020 sur les dimensions européenne et internationale de la crise liée à la pandémie de covid-19 ET PRÉSENTÉ PAR MME MARIELLE DE SARNEZ Députée —— – 3 – SOMMAIRE ___ Pages PRÉAMBULE ................................................................................................................. 9 I. ÉTAT DES LIEUX : LA PANDÉMIE DE COVID-19 A ATTEINT TOUS LES CONTINENTS, MAIS A SUSCITÉ UNE GRANDE DIVERSITÉ DE RÉPONSES ................................................................................................................... 13 A. LA PROGRESSION DE LA COVID-19 DANS LE MONDE S’EST FAITE SUR PLUSIEURS MOIS ........................................................................................ 13 1. Une première vague qui a pris son élan fin 2019 ................................................... 13 2. Une deuxième vague à l’ampleur encore incertaine .............................................. 18 B. LES RÉPONSES ET STRATÉGIES MISES EN PLACE ONT VARIÉ SELON LES RÉGIONS ET PAYS DU MONDE : COMPARATIF DES RÉACTIONS FACE À LA PANDÉMIE ................................................................. 22 1. Précautions méthodologiques sur le décompte des données .................................. 24 2. L’impact des facteurs exogènes sur la propagation du virus ................................. 26 a. Les caractéristiques démographiques et géographiques ....................................... 26 b. Le rôle du rythme et des modalités de propagation du virus ................................. 28 3. Un élément déterminant : l’expérience de la gestion de crise sanitaire ................. 30 4. La place des facteurs culturels dans la réponse à la pandémie .............................. 32 5. L’élaboration de stratégies de crise pour répondre à la pandémie ......................... 34 a. La mise à l’épreuve des systèmes sanitaires et hospitaliers .................................. 34 b. L’adoption de stratégies sanitaires de crise .......................................................... 38 i. Coopération entre acteurs du système sanitaire ...................................................... 38 ii. Approvisionnements en masques et doctrines d’emploi .......................................... 42 iii. Matériels médicaux ............................................................................................ 46 iv. Dépistage ......................................................................................................... 48 c. L’impact de l’organisation de l’État sur la gestion de crise .................................. 51 6. Une variable essentielle : la confiance des populations ......................................... 55 7. Le rôle de la gestion des frontières ........................................................................ 58 8. Focus sur la gestion de l’épidémie en Allemagne .................................................. 61 – 4 – II. LA PANDÉMIE DE COVID-19 A SUSCITÉ UNE SÉRIE DE CRISES DONT LA PORTÉE A DÉPASSÉ LE SEUL DOMAINE SANITAIRE ............................. 65 A. UNE CRISE QUI A DAVANTAGE TOUCHÉ LES PERSONNES ET LES GROUPES LES PLUS VULNÉRABLES ............................................................. 65 1. La crise s’est traduite par une amplification des inégalités au sein des sociétés ... 65 a. La crise sanitaire a davantage frappé les personnes les plus vulnérables socialement ......................................................................................................... 65 b. Les conséquences économiques et sociales de la pandémie devraient se traduire par une hausse des inégalités et de la pauvreté ........................................ 66 2. Une exposition accrue aux risques pour les migrants, les demandeurs d’asile et les réfugiés ............................................................................................................. 71 B. UNE PANDÉMIE DE NATURE À AGGRAVER DES SITUATIONS DE CRISE PRÉEXISTANTES ..................................................................................... 73 1. En zones de conflits, un facteur de crise supplémentaire ....................................... 74 2. La nécessité d’une nouvelle solidarité internationale et d’une adaptation de l’action humanitaire pour répondre à l’amplification des crises ............................ 76 a. Une crise qui a suscité de nouveaux besoins pour les pays les plus vulnérables ... 76 b. La pandémie et les restrictions mises en œuvre pour y faire face ont imposé une adaptation de l’action humanitaire ................................................................ 77 c. Le risque de se détourner des crises préexistantes ................................................ 80 3. En Afrique, un risque d’accentuer des vulnérabilités préexistantes malgré l’ampleur limitée de la pandémie ........................................................................... 81 a. Sur le plan sanitaire, l’impact de la covid-19 a été moins important que ce qui pouvait être redouté au début de la pandémie ...................................................... 81 b. Sur le plan socio-économique, la crise risque d’avoir un impact considérable ...... 84 III. LA CRISE A MIS À L’ÉPREUVE L’UNION EUROPÉENNE, APPELÉE À RENFORCER SON AUTONOMIE STRATÉGIQUE ............................................. 87 A. UNE RÉACTION EUROPÉENNE TARDIVE, MARQUÉE PAR UNE INSUFFISANTE CAPACITÉ D’ANTICIPATION ................................................. 87 B. LA CONSTRUCTION PROGRESSIVE D’UNE RÉPONSE COORDONNÉE ...................................................................................................... 90 C. L’UNION EUROPÉENNE DOIT ENCORE FAIRE FACE À DE NOMBREUX DÉFIS POUR RÉUSSIR LA SORTIE DE CRISE ...................... 93 1. Les défis de la sortie de la crise sanitaire et de la reconstruction économique ...... 93 2. La nécessité de doter l’Europe d’une véritable autonomie stratégique .................. 97 a. Un objectif dont la crise sanitaire a fait une nécessité vitale pour l’Europe .......... 97 b. Dans un contexte géopolitique revu par la crise, l’Europe pourrait construire son autonomie stratégique avec des pays partenaires ........................................... 100 – 5 – IV. LA CRISE A EU D’IMPORTANTES CONSÉQUENCES SUR LES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES, QUI NOUS INVITENT À FAIRE ÉVOLUER LA GOUVERNANCE INTERNATIONALE ......................................... 103 A. LA PANDÉMIE A CONTRIBUÉ À ACCENTUER LES LIMITES DU MULTILATÉRALISME ............................................................................................ 103 1. La crise a mis en lumière les faiblesses du multilatéralisme traditionnel .............. 103 2. Plusieurs tendances géopolitiques ont été suscitées ou accélérées par la crise ...... 105 B. LA CRISE A SOULEVÉ LA NÉCESSITÉ D’UNE ÉVOLUTION DE LA GOUVERNANCE SANITAIRE MONDIALE ET TOUT PARTICULIÈREMENT DE L’ORGANISATION MONDIALE DE LA SANTÉ ...................................................................................................................... 114 1. Un paysage sanitaire mondial qui compte aujourd’hui de nombreux acteurs ....... 114 2. L’Organisation mondiale de la santé a été particulièrement attendue et mise à l’épreuve par la crise .............................................................................................. 115 a. Les caractéristiques de l’OMS lui confèrent une place particulière dans le paysage sanitaire international ............................................................................ 116 b. La réaction de l’OMS face à la pandémie a ouvert le débat sur la nécessité d’une évolution de l’Organisation ....................................................................... 118 C CONCLUSION DU CHAPITRE : QUELQUES PISTES POUR UN NOUVEAU MULTILATÉRALISME À L’AUNE DE LA CRISE .......................... 125 D. LES ORGANISATIONS RÉGIONALES ONT ADOPTÉ DIFFÉRENTS MODÈLES DE COOPÉRATION FACE À LA CRISE ........................................ 129 1. À l’échelle d’un continent, l’exemple de l’Union africaine ................................... 129 2. La réaction de l’ASEAN face à la pandémie dans l’une des premières régions touchées par la crise ............................................................................................... 131 3. En Amérique, le modèle mixte de l’Organisation panaméricaine de santé ........... 133 V. FACE À LA PANDÉMIE, LES LEVIERS DE NOTRE ACTION EXTÉRIEURE ONT ÉTÉ ET DEMEURENT MOBILISÉS ..................................... 135 A. LES RÉSEAUX DIPLOMATIQUE, CONSULAIRE ET CULTUREL SE SONT ADAPTÉS, DANS L’URGENCE, AUX CONSÉQUENCES DE LA CRISE SANITAIRE ................................................................................................. 135 1. La nécessité en début de crise d’assurer le rapatriement des Français de passage à l’étranger ................................................................................................ 135 2. Pour les réseaux diplomatique et consulaire, une adaptation aux enjeux et aux contraintes liés à la crise ........................................................................................ 137 3. La mise à l’épreuve des réseaux de la diplomatie culturelle et d’influence ........... 139 a. La mobilisation des services de coopération et
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