INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript,has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissenation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type ofcomputerprinter. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and phOiOgraphs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improperalignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete mannsaipt and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the Original1 beginning at the upper left-hand comer and contimJing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back ofthe book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI A Bell &Howell InformatIOn Company 300 North Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor. M14S106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800:521-0600 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING RICE YIELD LOSSES FROM ANNUAL FLOODING IN BANGLADESH A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE DIVISION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN AGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCE DECEMBER 1995 By Sk. Ghulam Hussain Dissertation Committee: Goro Uehara, Chairperson Matthew P. McGranaghan James A. Silva Gordon Y. Tsuji Russell S. Yost UMI Number: 9615527 Copyright 1995 by Hussain, Sk. Ghulam All rights reserved. UMI Microfonn 9615527 Copyright 1996, by UMI Company. All rights reserved. This microfonn edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. UMI 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, MI 48103 © Copyright 1995 by Sk. Ghulam Hussain III I dedicate this work to my wife Rima, and my daughter Prova iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to express my sincere gratitude to the all those who contributed to enrich my experience as a graduate student at the University ofHawaii at Manoa. I am greatly indebted to my advisor, Professor Goro Uehara, for his guidance, encouragement, and for giving me the freedom to conduct my research. Sincere gratitude to Drs. Matthew P. McGranaghan, James A. Silva, Gordon Y. Tsuji, and Russell S. Yost members ofmy dissertation committee, for their valuable time, guidance and suggestions toward improvement ofthis dissertation. I am also thankful to my employer, the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) for awarding the fellowship to pursue this study. Special mention is given to Dr. Zahurul Karim, Member-Director, Soils and Irrigation, BARC for his support and encouragement to undertake this research. I would like to express my deepest thanks to Drs. Munshi Siddique Ahmed, Director (Retd.), Seed Certification Board; Md. Zahurul Hoque, ChiefScientific Officer ofthe Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, and Md. Sadrul Amin, ChiefScientific Officer, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute for their cooperation. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation for the help and cooperation rendered by Ms. Judith R. Evans, ProgrfuJi Specialist, USDA, Washington, D.C. and Mr. Daniel Imamura, Computer Specialist, IBSNAT, University ofHawaii. I am very thankful for the friendship and help received from my fellow graduate students, whose support was very much appreciated during the last couple ofmonths of v research and dissertation writing. I wish to acknowledge the friendship ofmy colleagues at theBARC. I should be failing in my duties ifI do not express my deepest gratitude to my mother Mrs. Sunder Nessa, father-in-law Mr. M. A. Raquib and mother-in-law Mrs. Sitara Raquib for their constant support and encouragement. Finally, I am especially indebted to those loved ones who shared the whole experience with me, my wife Fahrnida Khanam Rima and my daughter Taskia Mahinur Prova., Without their love, encouragement, and understanding this challenge would not have been possible. vi ABSTRACT In one out ofevery two years, 20 'percent ofBangladesh is inundated. Floods that occur at frequencies ofone in 5, 10, 20 and 50 years inundate 30, 37, 43, and 52 percent ofthe country, respectively. The nation pays a heavy price in hwnan sufferings and property from these floods. The purpose ofthis research is to assemble a prototype decision support system that could enable extension agents to search for alternative ways to minimize flood damage to agricultural crops and policy makers to assess yield losses and prepare for food shortages. The prototype system consists ofa crop simulation model for rice, a rule-based system for assessing rice yield loss from flooding and a geographic information system for aggregating site-specific flood damage into yield loss for the entire nation. The system is designed to accommodate more than one crop, but this study was restricted to the rice crop. It is able to simulate the growth, development and grain yield ofrice varieties cultivated by Bangladeshi farmers in any location and season under a wide range ofmanagement options. Simulated rice yields for a flood-free crop is used as a basis for computing yield loss from floods ofvarying severity. A rule-based system called FLOODEX was developed to compute yield loss from flooding which is expressed as a percent ofthe simulated non-flooded grain yield and computed on the bases ofyield loss from depth ofsubmergence, duration of submergence, growth stage and clarity ofwater. The expected yield is a fraction ofthe vii simulated yield, and production for a homogeneous area is the product ofyield and ar~a. The geographic infonnation system enables yield loss and production levels to be displayed spatially. A major constraint to early application ofthe system was the lack ofsite-specific input data to operate the crop simulation models. These data include a minimum set of crop, soil, and weather data for benchmark locations in the country. The immediate value ofthis system may lie in its capacity to serve as a framework for organizing interdisciplinary research and prioritizing resource allocation. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v ABSTRACT vii LIST OF TABLES xii LIST OF FIGURES xvi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS xviii I. PROBLEM AND SETTING 1 A. FLOODS IN BANGLADESH 4 B. PURPOSEAND OBJECTiVES 8 II. APPROACH AND METHODS 9 A. LITERATUKE REVIEWANDApPROACH TO OBJECTIVE1 9 1. Status ofCrop Simulation Models ll a. The Rice Model 12 b. Integration a/Crop Models and GIS 12 B. METHODS 13 1. Input Data for Crop Simulation Models 13 a. Soil l.finimum Data Set 14 b. Agroclimatic Minimum Data Set 16 i. Solar radiation 16 ii. Rainfall , 19 iii Maximum and minimum temperatures 20 c. Crop Minimum Data Set 20 d Crop Management Information 22 2. Locations 22 3. Operating AEGIS+ 25 4. Application ofAEGIS+ 28 C. LITERATUREREVIEWANDApPROACH TO OBJECTIVE 2 38 1. Developing the Rule-based System ;.. 41 IX a. Acquisition ofPublished Knowledge .41 b. Acquisition ofKnowledgefrom Experts .44 D. FLOODEX - A RULE-BASED SYSTEM FOR YIELD LossASSESSMENT.. .45 I. Modification ofAEGIS+ 47 2. The FLOODEX Interface 48 a. The Main Menu 48 b. FLOODEXDirectory 53 c. Future Development 55 d. Software and Hardware Requirements 57 1. Hardware 57 ii. Software 57 3. Assessing Rice Yield Losses to Flooding with FLOODEX 57 III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 59 A. OBJECTIVE 1 59 1. Rice Yield as Affected by Planting Dates and Fertilizer Rate 59 2. Aggregation ofRice Yields in Tangail District... 67 3. Estimating Rice Deficit or Surplus 68 B. OBJECTIVE 2 72 1. Assessment ofYield Reduction from Flooding 72 a. Normal Flooding 73 b. Early Flooding 84 c. Late Flooding 84 2. Aggregation ofRice Yield Loss from Flooding in Tangail District 101 a. Estimation ofAggregated Crop Damagefrom Normal Flooding 10I b. Estimation ofAggregated Crop Damagefrom Early Flooding 106 c. Estimation ofAggregated Crop Damagefrom Late Flooding 106 d. Spatial and Temporal Aggregation ofYield Loss 111 IV. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 112 x APPENDICES 116 APPENDIX A 116 Soil Data File 116 APPENDIX B 118 AML and Menu Program Files 118 GLOSSARY 130 REFERENCES 132 xi LIST OF TABLES 1.1. Land per capita and population density in selected countries, 1992 (Computedfrom FAD 1993 data) 3 1.2. Areas affected by floods in Bangladesh 5 1.3. Flooded areas for high flood years between 1954 and 1988 7 2.1. Selected Weather Stations and their locations 19 2.2. Phenology and growth genetic coefficients used in the CERES-Rice Model version 3.0 23 2.3. Development and growth characteristics ofthe selected varieties 24 2.4. List ofcultivars and their estimated genetic coefficients 25 2.5. Crop management ofselected varieties 26 2.6. Polygon nwnber, dominant cropping pattern, General Soil Type and inundation land type ofselected Thanas 33 2.7. Submergence damage ofrice according to growth stages in Korea 43 2.8. Submergence damage ofrice according to growth stages in Japan 43 2.9. Projected yield reduction due to inundation ofIR-30 rice variety (tons/ha), (Undan, 1977 44 2.10. Submergence (25-50% ofplant height) damage ofrice according to growth stages in Bangladesh (Karim etal., 1994) .46 2.11. Submergence (50-75% ofplant height) damage ofrice according to growth stages in Bangladesh (Karim et al., 1994) .46 2.12. Submergence (75-100% ofplant height) damage ofrice according to growth stages in Bangladesh (Karim et aI., 1994) 47 2.13. Directory, file name, and purpose ofmodifications in several AEGIS+ programs 49 xii 2.14. Directory structure ofFLOODEX 56 3.1. Average, maximum and minimum simulated rice yield for traditional planting date and recommended fertilizer rates 60 3.2.