Is the Flynn Effect Related to Migration? Meta-Analytic Evidence

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Is the Flynn Effect Related to Migration? Meta-Analytic Evidence ,VWKH)O\QQHႇHFWUHODWHGWRPLJUDWLRQ" 267 Politische Psychologie, 2018, Nr. 2, S. 267-283 Is the Flynn effect related to migration? 0HWDDQDO\WLFHYLGHQFHIRUFRUUHODWHVRIVWDJQDWLRQ DQGUHYHUVDORIJHQHUDWLRQDO,4WHVWVFRUHFKDQJHV Jakob Pietschnig, Martin Voracek & Georg Gittler University of Vienna, Austria Abstract Generational IQ test score gains in the general population (the Flynn effect) have been observed to diminish in strength in recent years, and there is evidence for a stagnation and even a reversal of the Flynn effect in a number of countries. Here, we show that there is only little evidence for effects of migration, fertility, and mortality as substantive correlates of IQ decreases. We argue that the stagnation of the Flynn effect may be explained by ceiling effects and diminishing re- turns of IQ-boosting factors, whilst its reversal can be attributed to negative associations with psychometric g. Keywords: Flynn effect; intelligence; meta-analysis; migration *LEWHVHLQHQ=XVDPPHQKDQJ]ZLVFKHQGHP)O\QQ(IIHNWXQG0LJUDWLRQ" 0HWDDQDO\WLVFKH(YLGHQ]IU.RUUHODWHYRQ6WDJQDWLRQXQG8PNHKUYRQ NRKRUWHQVSH]LILVFKHQ,47HVWQRUPYHUVFKLHEXQJHQ Zusammenfassung Die Stärke positiver IQ-Testnormverschiebungen der Allgemeinbevölkerung über die Zeit (der Flynn-Effekt) schwächte sich in den letzten Jahren deutlich ab. Neuere Studien zeigen Hinweise für Stagnation und sogar eine Umkehr in einigen Ländern. In der vorliegenden Studie demons- trieren wir, dass für Einflüsse von Migration, Fertilität und Sterblichkeit auf abnehmende IQ- Testleistung nur wenig überzeugende Evidenz vorliegt. Wir schlussfolgern, dass die Stagnation des Flynn-Effekts durch Deckeneffekte und abnehmende Erträge von IQ-steigernden Faktoren erklärt werden kann, während die Umkehr auf negative Zusammenhänge mit psychometri- schem g beruht. Schlüsselwörter: Flynn-Effekt, Intelligenz, Meta-Analyse, Migration 268 Jakob Pietschnig, Martin Voracek & Georg Gittler Zusammenfassung Zu diesem Zweck verwendeten wir zwei meta-analytische Datensätze, die in diesem Eines der illustrativsten Beispiele für den Kontext noch nicht untersucht wurden: Der Stellenwert, der der kognitiven Leistungsfä- erste Datensatz basiert auf durchschnittli- higkeit in unserer Gesellschaft zugemessen chen IQ-Testleistungen von 94 unabhängi- wird, findet sich bereits in den 1930er Jah- gen Stichproben (N = 13,108) eines wohl- ren im weithin rezipierten Buch von Ray- etablierten Raumvorstellungstests (3DW; mond B. Cattell „The Fight for our National Gittler, 1990) über einen Zeitraum von 38 Intelligence“ (1937). In diesem Werk drück- Jahren in Österreich (1977-2014; Pietschnig te er seine Besorgnis über erwartbare sin- & Gittler, 2015). Der zweite Datensatz be- kende IQ-Testleistungen der Allgemeinbe- inhaltet IQ-Testleistungsveränderungen auf völkerung in Großbritannien aus. Moderne Testinstrumenten zur Erfassung von fullsca- Beispiele für die gesellschaftliche Relevanz le, kristallisierter und fluider Intelligenz von kognitiver Leistungen finden sich in interna- 137 unabhängigen Stichproben verschiede- tionalen Vergleichsstudien wie PISA, TIMMS ner Länder (N = 2,410,759) über einen Zeit- oder PIRLS, deren Ergebnisse über nationa- raum von 54 Jahren (1960-2013; Pietschnig le Medien weite Verbreitung finden und die & Voracek, 2015). Indizes für nationale Mi- mitunter beträchtlichen Einfluss auf bil- grationszahlen, Fertilitäts- und Mortalitäts- dungspolitische Entscheidungen ausüben. raten wurden aus zwei verschiedenen Anders als von Cattell (1937) erwartet, Quellen erfasst. ließ sich über einen großen Teil des 20. In einer Serie von gewichteten einfa- Jahrhunderts hinweg eine Zunahme der In- chen und multiplen Meta-Regressionen telligenztestleistung in einer großen Anzahl zeig ten sich keine bedeutsamen Einflüsse von Ländern feststellen. In rezenten Studien von drei Indikatoren für Migration (Zahl von zeigte sich jedoch eine Abschwächung der Asylwerbern, Netto-Migration, absolute Mi- IQ-Zuwächse und in einigen Ländern sogar grationszahlen) auf die Testleistung im 3DW eine Stagnation beziehungsweise eine Um- in die erwartete Richtung (mit Ausnahme kehr dieses als „Flynn-Effekt“ bekannten von einem kleinen negativen Effekt von ab- Phänomens. Einer der Faktoren, der in der soluter Migration; dieses Vorzeichen drehte Literatur für die Erklärung dieser Umkehr sich jedoch nach Berücksichtigung von Pu- des Flynn-Effekts vorgeschlagen wird, findet blikationsjahr um). Diese Ergebnisse sind sich in der Form von Migrationseffekten. interessant, weil der 3DW konzeptuell eng Diese Theorie basiert auf der Annahme, mit psychometrischem g (allgemeine kogni- dass (hauptsächlich nicht-westliche) Popu- tive Fähigkeit) verknüpft ist und auch robus- lationen mit niedrigeren durchschnittlichen te Korrelationen mit anderen hoch g-laden- kognitiven Fähigkeiten in (hauptsächlich den Tests wie zum Beispiel dem Mental westliche) Länder mit höheren mittleren Fä- Rotations Test bekannt sind. Daraus lässt higkeiten migrieren, wodurch es zu einer sich folgern, dass Migrationseffekte keine Abnahme des IQs in den Gastländern bedeutsame Rolle für IQ-Abnahmen spielen kommt. Weitere vorgeschlagene Ursachen sollten. Unsere Ergebnisse sind konsistent machen negative Zusammenhänge zwi- mit bereits publizierten Erkenntnissen, die schen Fertilität und IQ sowie positive Zu- zeigten, dass migrationsbedingte Verände- sammenhänge zwischen Mortalität und IQ rungen von nationalen IQs kurzlebig sind für die Umkehr des Flynn-Effekts verant- (te Nijenhuis, de Jong, Evers, & van der wortlich. Flier, 2004). Das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist die Zusammenhänge mit Fertilitäts- und Untersuchung von Migration, Fertilität und Mor talitätsraten zeigten ein erratisches Mortalität als mögliche Ursachen für die Mus ter inkonsistenter Vorzeichen bei mehr- Stagnation und Umkehr des Flynn-Effekts. heitlich kleinen und trivialen Effekten zwi- ,VWKH)O\QQHႇHFWUHODWHGWRPLJUDWLRQ" 269 schen und innerhalb beider Meta-Analysen. alia, detrimentally affect the quality of edu- Solche inkonsistente Effektmuster zeigten cational systems, social progress, or nation- sich auch, wenn eine zeitliche Verzögerung al prosperity and security (Cattell, 1937; dieser Effekte angenommen wurde. Basie- pp.46-85). rend auf diesen Ergebnissen lässt sich Without a doubt, cognitive abilities are schwerlich ein inhaltlich bedeutsamer Ef- nowadays valued and deemed important for fekt von Fertilität und Mortalität auf IQ-Test- the functioning of contemporary societies. leistungsveränderungen ableiten. This is for instance reflected by the variety Insgesamt zeigen wir in der vorliegen- of international cognitive ability and den Studie, dass es nur wenig Evidenz für achievement comparisons that have been Effekte von Migration, Fertilität und Mortali- established by the International Association tät auf IQ-Testleistungsveränderungen gibt. for the Evaluation of Educational Achieve- Basierend auf der verfügbaren Evidenz ment, such as the PISA (Programme for In- (Pietschnig & Voracek, 2015) argumentie- ternational Student Assessment), TIMSS ren wir, dass die beobachtete Stagnation (Trends in International Mathematics and und Umkehr des Flynn-Effekts auf zwei dis- Science Study), or PIRLS studies (Progress in tinkte Mechanismen zurückgeführt werden International Reading Literacy Study). Al- kann: Einerseits können geringere Stärke though these findings are based an achieve- und die Stagnation des Flynn-Effekts auf ment data which are conceptually not iden- Deckeneffekte und abnehmende Erträge tical with results from cognitive ability tests, von IQ-steigernden Faktoren (verbesserte achievement and cognitive ability tests have Ernährung, geringerer pathogener Stress, been shown to be strongly linked (for a dis- bessere und längere Beschulung, Testrate- cussion, see, Rindermann, 2007). Results of verhalten, soziale Multiplikatoren, nationa- such studies receive frequently consider- le Prosperität) erklärt werden. Andererseits able attention within national news outlets lassen sich Abnahmen in der durchschnitt- and inform policy and reform decisions. lichen Testleistung auf einen negativen Zu- Importantly, contrary to Cattell’s predic- sammenhang des Flynn-Effekts mit psycho- tion (1937), decreases in population IQs did metrischem g zurückführen. not emerge following his publication. In- deed, the first systematic accounts describ- ing IQ test score changes in the general population indicated substantial increases 1. Introduction of test scores over time (Flynn, 1984, 1987). In the so far most comprehensive me- Perhaps one of the most illustrative exam- ta-analysis about this so-called Flynn effect, ples of how much value the society places test performance changes have been shown on cognitive abilities may be found in the to have been predominantly positive over widely-cited book of Raymond B. Cattell the past century, yielding average perfor- (1937) The Fight for our National Intelli- mance increases of about 2.8 IQ points per gence, who therein expressed his concerns decade (Pietschnig & Voracek, 2015). Typi- about potentially decreasing IQ scores of cally, the Flynn effect is stronger for fluid the UK population. Based on his observa- than crystallized IQ and appears to be neg- tion of selective population reproduction atively associated with psychometric g (i.e., patterns (i.e., low-ability individuals repro- the general factor of intelligence, see, Must, ducing earlier and quicker), he estimated Must, & Raudik, 2003; Woodley & Meisen- that IQs of the British population will de- berg, 2013; but see Colom, Juan-Espinosa,
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