NEW PLYMOUTH RETAIL Client:
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Project No:
UPDATE Date:
SCHEDULE
Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader
51820.4 June 2019 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION ...... 7
1.1. OBJECTIVES ...... 8
1.2. INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES ...... 9
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 10
3. RETAIL MARKET AND OFFICE TRENDS ...... 12
3.1. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS ...... 12
3.2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN NEW PLYMOUTH ...... 14
3.3. CONSUMER EXPECTATION ...... 15
3.4. MAJOR TRANSPORT ROUTES, MALLS, AND LFR ...... 15
3.5. CLICKS VERSUS BRICKS ...... 16
3.6. OFFICE MARKET TRENDS ...... 17
4. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT CORE MARKET ...... 19
5. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ...... 21
6. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH ...... 22
7. RETAIL DEMAND AND SUSTAINABLE GFA ...... 24
7.1. RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL ...... 24
7.2. SUSTAINABLE GFA ...... 26
7.3. RETAIL EXPENDITURE ...... 27
7.4. SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST ...... 29
8. CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY ...... 32
9. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT SPENDING PATTERNS ...... 38
9.1. DESTINATION SPENDING ...... 38
9.2. ORIGIN OF SPENDING ...... 39
9.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS ...... 40
10. SUPPLY & DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL ...... 42
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11. CONVENIENCE CENTRE OVERVIEW ...... 43
11.1. BELL BLOCK ...... 44
11.2. HURDON ...... 45
11.3. SPOTSWOOD ...... 46
11.4. INGLEWOOD ...... 47
11.5. VOGELTOWN ...... 48
11.6. WAITARA ...... 49
11.7. MERRILANDS ...... 49
11.8. WESTOWN ...... 51
11.9. FITZROY ...... 52
11.10. OAKURA ...... 53
11.11. OKATO ...... 54
11.12. MOTUROA ...... 55
12. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ...... 56
13. COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ...... 64
13.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS ...... 65
14. DISTRICT PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 67
14.1. RETAIL ...... 67
14.2. INDUSTRIAL ...... 68
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ...... 70
APPENDIX 2: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RETAIL MODEL ...... 73
APPENDIX 3: BUSINESS CLASSIFICATIONS ...... 78
APPENDIX 4: CONVENIENCE STORE TYPE EXAMPLES ...... 80
4
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECAST ($M) ...... 27
TABLE 2: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS BY STORE TYPE ($M) ...... 29
TABLE 3: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL SUSTAINABLE GFA BY SECTOR (SQM)...... 30
TABLE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST BY STORE TYPE (SQM) ...... 30
TABLE 5: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRE RETAIL AUDIT APRIL 2016 ...... 32
TABLE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRES RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT APRIL 2016 ...... 36
TABLE 7: NEWPLYMOUTH RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT BY CENTRE (2016) ...... 37
TABLE 8: DEMAND AND SUPPLY DIFFERENTIAL FOR NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ...... 42
TABLE 9: NEW PLYMOUTH EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY INDUSTRY 2000 - 2018 ...... 56
TABLE 10: NEW PLYMOUTH RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY CENTRE (2000-2018) ...... 60
TABLE 11: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ...... 63
TABLE 12: NEW PLYMOUTH COMMERCIAL SECTOR GROWTH PROJECTIONS (2018-2048) ...... 64
TABLE 13: COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS IN NEW PLYMOUTH (2018-2048) ...... 66
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LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: ONLINE RETAIL SALES VS TOTAL RETAIL SALES GROWTH ...... 13
FIGURE 2: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (CORE ECONOMIC MARKET) ...... 19
FIGURE 3: NEW PLYMOUTH SUBURBAN CATCHMENTS AND BUSINESS ZONES ...... 20
FIGURE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ...... 22
FIGURE 5: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ...... 23
FIGURE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR ($M)...... 28
FIGURE 7: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRES RETAIL COMPOSITION APRIL 2016 ...... 34
FIGURE 8: DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPENDING BY NEW PLYMOUTH RESIDENTS ...... 39
FIGURE 9: ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPENDING IN NEW PLYMOUTH ...... 40
FIGURE 10: NEW PLYMOUTH NET POSITION BY RETAIL SECTOR ...... 41
FIGURE 11: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL CENTRES ...... 43
FIGURE 12: BELL BLOCK CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW (2018-2048) ...... 44
FIGURE 13: HURDON CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 45
FIGURE 14: SPOTSWOOD CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 46
FIGURE 15: INGLEWOOD CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 47
FIGURE 16: VOGELTOWN CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 48
FIGURE 17: WAITARA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 49
FIGURE 18: MERRILANDS CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 49
FIGURE 19: WESTOWN CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 51
FIGURE 20: FITZROY CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 52
FIGURE 21: OAKURA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 53
FIGURE 22: OKATO CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 54
FIGURE 23: MOUROA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...... 55
FIGURE 24: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRACKING BY CATEGORY (2000-2018) ...... 57
FIGURE 25: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ...... 58
FIGURE 26: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ...... 59
FIGURE 27: NEW PLMYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ...... 61
FIGURE 28: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ...... 62
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1. INTRODUCTION
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1.1. OBJECTIVES
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1.2. INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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3. RETAIL MARKET AND OFFICE TRENDS
3.1. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS
1 BNZ Online Sales Index: https://www.bnz.co.nz/business-banking/support/commentary/online-retail-sales-index
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FIGURE 1: ONLINE RETAIL SALES VS TOTAL RETAIL SALES GROWTH
18% 16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4% in Previous Year Previousin 2%
0% Quarterly GrowthQuarterlytoQuarterComparedSame
Total Retail Total Online Index
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3.2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN NEW PLYMOUTH
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3.3. CONSUMER EXPECTATION
3.4. MAJOR TRANSPORT ROUTES, MALLS, AND LFR
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3.5. CLICKS VERSUS BRICKS
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3.6. OFFICE MARKET TRENDS
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4. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT CORE MARKET
FIGURE 2: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (CORE ECONOMIC MARKET)
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FIGURE 3: NEW PLYMOUTH SUBURBAN CATCHMENTS AND BUSINESS ZONES
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5. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING
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6. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH
FIGURE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
120000
106,100 103,000 99,800 100000 96,300 92,400 88,100 83,400
80000 77,100 71,650 69,200
60000
43,650 41,050 42,350 39,600 38,000 40000 34,300 36,250
Population and Households and Population 31,000 27,700 28,750
20000
0
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FIGURE 5: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT
120,000
110,000
High 100,000
Medium - High Net 90,000 Migration
Medium Population andHouseholds 80,000 Low
Census
70,000
60,000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046 2048
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7. RETAIL DEMAND AND SUSTAINABLE GFA
7.1. RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL
Household Spending
Visitor Business Spending Spending
Total Retail Spending
Internet Physical Retail Spending Stores
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7.2. SUSTAINABLE GFA
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7.3. RETAIL EXPENDITURE
TABLE 1: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECAST ($M)
# Net Growth % Net Growth Total Retail Expenditure 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 (2018-2048) (2018-2048)
Food retailing $346 $380 $415 $454 $494 $531 $567 $221 64%
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing $59 $65 $71 $77 $84 $91 $97 $38 65%
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods retailing $34 $37 $40 $44 $47 $50 $54 $20 60%
Electrical and electronic goods retailing $45 $49 $53 $58 $63 $67 $72 $27 60%
Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing $33 $37 $40 $44 $47 $51 $54 $21 63%
Department stores $70 $77 $84 $91 $99 $107 $114 $44 63%
Recreational goods retailing $37 $40 $44 $48 $53 $57 $61 $24 65%
Other goods retailing $56 $62 $68 $75 $82 $89 $95 $39 69%
Food and beverage services $156 $172 $188 $207 $227 $246 $263 $108 69%
Total $834 $917 $1,003 $1,099 $1,196 $1,289 $1,376 $542 65%
2 Australia New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification 2006
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FIGURE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR ($M)
Food retailing $346 $567
Clothing, footwear and $59 $97 personal accessories retailing
Furniture, floor coverings, $34 $54 houseware and textile goods retailing
Electrical and electronic goods $45 $72 retailing
Pharmaceutical and $33 $54 personal care goods retailing
Department stores $70 $114
Recreational goods retailing $37 $61
Other goods retailing $56 $95
Food and beverage services $156 $263
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
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TABLE 2: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS BY STORE TYPE ($M)
# Net Growth % Net Growth 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 (2018-2048) (2018-2048)
Specialty Retailing $417 $460 $503 $553 $602 $651 $695 $277 66%
Large Format Stores (Excl. $157 $173 $188 $206 $223 $240 $256 $99 63% Supermarkets)
Supermarket Retailing $259 $285 $311 $341 $370 $399 $425 $166 64%
Total $834 $917 $1,003 $1,099 $1,196 $1,289 $1,376 $542 65%
7.4. SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST
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TABLE 3: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL SUSTAINABLE GFA BY SECTOR (SQM)
# Net Growth % Net Growth Sustainable GFA 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 (2018-2048) (2018-2048)
Food retailing 42,600 46,800 51,200 56,000 60,900 65,500 69,900 27,300 64%
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing 10,200 11,300 12,300 13,500 14,700 15,900 16,900 6,700 66%
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods 11,600 12,700 13,800 15,100 16,300 17,400 18,600 7,000 60% retailing
Electrical and electronic goods retailing 11,300 12,400 13,500 14,700 15,900 17,000 18,100 6,800 60%
Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 4,800 5,200 5,700 6,200 6,800 7,300 7,700 2,900 60%
Department stores 24,900 27,300 29,800 32,700 35,400 38,100 40,600 15,700 63%
Recreational goods retailing 9,800 10,800 11,800 12,900 14,100 15,100 16,200 6,400 65%
Other goods retailing 12,700 14,100 15,400 17,000 18,600 20,100 21,500 8,800 69%
Food and beverage services 24,700 27,200 29,900 32,900 36,000 39,100 41,800 17,100 69%
Total 152,600 167,800 183,400 201,000 218,600 235,500 251,300 98,700 65%
TABLE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST BY STORE TYPE (SQM)
# Net Growth % Net Growth 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 (2018-2048) (2018-2048)
Specialty Retailing 69,800 76,900 84,200 92,400 100,800 108,800 116,100 46,300 66%
Large Format Stores (Excl. Supermarkets) 53,200 58,300 63,600 69,600 75,500 81,100 86,600 33,400 63%
Supermarket Retailing 29,600 32,600 35,600 39,000 42,300 45,600 48,600 19,000 64%
Total 152,600 167,800 183,400 201,000 218,600 235,500 251,300 98,700 65%
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8. CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
TABLE 5: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRE RETAIL AUDIT APRIL 2016
ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICATIONS Store # GFA# Store % GFA%
Supermarket retailing 7 23,950 1% 15%
Food retailing 53 10,290 11% 6%
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories 65 12,140 14% 8%
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods 31 21,390 7% 13% retailing
Electrical and electronic goods 7 4,690 1% 3%
Pharmaceutical and personal goods retailing 13 2,040 3% 1%
Department stores 4 26,640 1% 17%
Recreational goods retailing 22 9,470 5% 6%
Other goods retailing 75 16,050 16% 10%
NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICTPLYMOUTHNEWAUDIT (2016) RETAIL Food and beverage services 168 25,560 35% 16%
Vacant 31 7,040 7% 4%
Total 476 159,260 100% 100%
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FIGURE 7: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRES RETAIL COMPOSITION APRIL 2016
100% 1%
11% 15% Supermarket retailing 90%
Food retailing 6% 80% 14%
Clothing, footwear and 8% personal accessories 70% 7% Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods 3% 13% retailing 60% 5% Electrical and electronic goods 3%
Pharmaceutical and personal 50% 16% goods retailing
17% Department stores 40%
6% Recreational goods retailing 30%
10% Other goods retailing 35%
20% Food and beverage services
16% 10% Vacant
7% 4% 0% Store % GFA%
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TABLE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRES RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT APRIL 2016
ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICATIONS 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total
Supermarket retailing 7 7 23,950 23,950
Food retailing 50 3 53 8,240 2,050 10,290
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories 61 2 2 65 8,610 1,240 2,290 12,140
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile 16 8 7 31 4,410 5,580 11,400 21,390 goods retailing
Electrical and electronic goods 4 1 2 7 1,170 670 2,850 4,690
Pharmaceutical and personal goods retailing 13 13 2,040 2,040
Department stores 4 4 26,640 26,640
Recreational goods retailing 16 4 2 22 2,940 2,690 3,840 9,470
Other goods retailing 68 5 2 75 9,110 3,940 3,000 16,050
Food and beverage services 163 5 168 22,060 3,500 25,560
NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT RETAIL AUDIT (2016) RETAIL AUDIT PLYMOUTHNEW DISTRICT Vacant 30 1 31 4,690 2,350 7,040
Total 421 28 27 476 63,270 19,670 76,320 159,260
Total % 88% 6% 6% 100% 40% 12% 48% 100%
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TABLE 7: NEWPLYMOUTH RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT BY CENTRE (2016)
Store count GFA
Centres 0-500 500-999 1000+ Grand Total 0-500 500-999 1000+ Grand Total
CBD 219 16 11 246 38,280 11,870 33,880 84,030
The Valley 9 3 10 22 1,830 2,000 23,580 27,410
Fitzroy 24 1 1 26 3,160 560 1,060 4,780
Waitara 42 1 43 5,700 1,400 7,100
Inglewood 29 3 32 3,600 1,990 5,590
Bell Block 15 1 1 17 1,830 580 9,990 12,400
Vogeltown 7 7 680 680
Oakura 6 6 770 770
Okato 4 4 400 400
Spotswood 1 1 2 40 4,250 4,290
Merilands 4 1 5 710 1,110 1,820
Westown 19 1 20 1,570 580 2,150
Moturoa 17 17 2,140 21,40
Other Centres 25 3 1 29 2,560 2,090 1,050 5,700
Total 421 28 27 476 63,270 19,670 76,320 159,260
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9. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT SPENDING PATTERNS
9.1. DESTINATION SPENDING
3 Market View data excludes business and corporate cards. The transaction values include GST, but exclude cash out with purchases. Market View does not pick up hire purchase, direct debit/credit payments or cash-based spending.
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FIGURE 8: DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPENDING BY NEW PLYMOUTH RESIDENTS
4% 3% New Plymouth District 3%
5% Balance of Taranaki Region
Auckland Region
Wellington Region
Waikato Region
Balance of North Island 81%
South Island
9.2. ORIGIN OF SPENDING
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FIGURE 9: ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPENDING IN NEW PLYMOUTH
3% New Plymouth District 3%
Balance of Taranaki 10% Region
Auckland Region
Wellington Region
Waikato Region
Balance of North Island
79% South Island & International
9.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS
40
FIGURE 10: NEW PLYMOUTH NET POSITION BY RETAIL SECTOR
Grand Total -19% 81% 22% 103%
Supermarkets -12% 88% 14% 102%
Recreational goods retailing -24% 76% 27% 102%
Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing -22% 78% 18% 97%
Other goods retailing -33% 67% 18% 85%
Other Food and Liquor -22% 78% 16% 95%
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods retailing -16% 84% 23% 107%
Electrical and electronic goods retailing -19% 81% 20% 101%
Department stores -13% 87% 29% 116%
Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing -29% 71% 28% 99%
Food and beverage services -30% 70% 33% 102%
-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150% INTERNALISATION LEAKAGE INFLOW
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10. SUPPLY & DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL
TABLE 8: DEMAND AND SUPPLY DIFFERENTIAL FOR NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT
2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048
Sustainable Demand 152,600 167,800 183,400 201,000 218,600 235,500 251,300
Existing Provision 159,260 159,260 159,260 159,260 159,260 159,260 159,260
Differential -6,660 8,540 24,140 41,740 59,340 76,240 92,040
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11. CONVENIENCE CENTRE OVERVIEW
FIGURE 11: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL CENTRES
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11.1. BELL BLOCK
FIGURE 12: BELL BLOCK CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW (2018-2048)
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 6,970 2018 $13 Nominal Stores 16
2048 9,522 2048 $23 GFA (sqm) 2,414
% Growth 37% % Growth 81%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 2,658 2018 1,721 Sustainable GFA 2048 3,364
2048 3,723 2048 3,364 Existing Supply 2016 2,414
% Growth 40% % Growth 95% Future Retail GFA 950 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
44
11.2. HURDON
FIGURE 13: HURDON CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 8,033 2018 $9 Nominal Stores 3
2048 9,712 2048 $15 GFA (sqm) 1,730
% Growth 21% % Growth 55%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 3,211 2018 1,263 Sustainable GFA 2048 2,115
2048 3,957 2048 2,115 Existing Supply 2016 1,730
% Growth 23% % Growth 67% Future Retail GFA 385 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
45
11.3. SPOTSWOOD
FIGURE 14: SPOTSWOOD CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 6,836 2018 $9 Nominal Stores 3
2048 8,848 2048 $15 GFA (sqm) 280 % Growth 29% % Growth 75% New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 2,860 2018 1,180 Sustainable GFA 2048 2,230
2048 3,794 2048 2,230 Existing Supply 2016 280
% Growth 33% % Growth 89% Future Retail GFA 1,950 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
46
11.4. INGLEWOOD
FIGURE 15: INGLEWOOD CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 6,724 2018 $9 Nominal Stores 29
2048 8,945 2048 $15 GFA (sqm) 4,023
% Growth 33% % Growth 69%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 2,615 2018 1,149 Sustainable GFA 2048 2,107
2048 3,551 2048 2,107 Existing Supply 2016 4,023
% Growth 36% % Growth 83% Future Retail GFA -1,916 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
47
11.5. VOGELTOWN
FIGURE 16: VOGELTOWN CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 6,854 2018 $9 Nominal Stores 6
2048 8,621 2048 $15 GFA (sqm) 446
% Growth 26% % Growth 69%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 2,853 2018 1,172 Sustainable GFA 2048 2,140
2048 3,648 2048 2,140 Existing Supply 2016 446
% Growth 28% % Growth 83% Future Retail GFA 1,694 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
48
11.6. WAITARA
FIGURE 17: WAITARA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 7,980 2018 $8 Nominal Stores 36
2048 9,647 2048 $13 GFA (sqm) 4,737
% Growth 21% % Growth 59%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 3,256 2018 1,124 Sustainable GFA 2048 1,929
2048 4,016 2048 1,929 Existing Supply 2016 4,737
% Growth 23% % Growth 72% Future Retail GFA -2,808 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
11.7. MERRILANDS
FIGURE 18: MERRILANDS CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 6,013 2018 $9 Nominal Stores 4 49
2048 7,216 2048 $13 GFA (sqm) 709
% Growth 20% % Growth 54%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 2,469 2018 1,156 Sustainable GFA 2048 1,921
2048 3,031 2048 1,921 Existing Supply 2016 709
% Growth 23% % Growth 66% Future Retail GFA 1,212 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
50
11.8. WESTOWN
FIGURE 19: WESTOWN CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 2,953 2018 $6 Nominal Stores 20
2048 3,441 2048 $10 GFA (sqm) 2,150
% Growth 17% % Growth 58%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 1,344 2018 825 Sustainable GFA 2048 1,406
2048 1,605 2048 1,406 Existing Supply 2016 2,150
% Growth 19% % Growth 71% Future Retail GFA -744 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
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11.9. FITZROY
FIGURE 20: FITZROY CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 3,283 2018 $6 Nominal Stores 21 2048 3,869 2048 $10 GFA (sqm) 2,723
% Growth 18% % Growth 59%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 1,493 2018 850 Sustainable GFA 2048 1,466
2048 1,802 2048 1,466 Existing Supply 2016 2,723
% Growth 21% % Growth 72% Future Retail GFA -1,257 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1
% Growth 1 % Growth 1
52
11.10. OAKURA
FIGURE 21: OAKURA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 2,245 2018 $4 Nominal Stores 6
2048 3,125 2048 $6 GFA (sqm) 772
% Growth 39% % Growth 76% New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 872 2018 478 Sustainable GFA 2048 909
2048 1,241 2048 909 Existing Supply 2016 772
% Growth 42% % Growth 90% Future Retail GFA 137 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
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11.11. OKATO
FIGURE 22: OKATO CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 1,264 2018 $1 Nominal Stores 4
2048 1,772 2048 $2 GFA (sqm) 402
% Growth 40% % Growth 81%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 469 2018 183 Sustainable GFA 2048 358
2048 672 2048 358 Existing Supply 2016 402
% Growth 43% % Growth 96% Future Retail GFA -44 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
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11.12. MOTUROA
FIGURE 23: MOUROA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW
POPULATION RETAIL EXPENDITURE ($M/PA) CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY
2018 2,567 2018 $4 Nominal Stores 14
2048 3,128 2048 $6 GFA (sqm) 1,630
% Growth 22% % Growth 60%
New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% % Growth % Growth
FUTURE RETAIL GFA HOUSEHOLDS SUSTAINABLE GFA (SQM) REQUIREMENT
2018 1,165 2018 511 Sustainable GFA 2048 886
2048 1,452 2048 886 Existing Supply 2016 1,630
% Growth 25% % Growth 73% Future Retail GFA -744 Requirement New Plymouth District 27% New Plymouth District 65% 1 % Growth 1 % Growth 1
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12. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
TABLE 9: NEW PLYMOUTH EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY INDUSTRY 2000 - 2017
New Plymouth 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017
Industrial 7,634 8,157 8,451 9,447 10,497 10,027 10,243 10,380 10,790 10,803
Retail 4,554 4,678 5,586 5,949 6,062 6,039 5,720 5,840 5,843 5,966
Commercial 5,706 5,824 6,410 7,037 7,694 7,779 7,914 8,336 8,042 7,963
Other 7,922 8,406 9,145 9,731 9,747 10,280 10,161 10,670 10,586 10,273
Total 25,816 27,065 29,592 32,164 33,999 34,125 34,039 35,225 35,261 35,005
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FIGURE 24: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRACKING BY CATEGORY (2000-2017)
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000 Employment CountEmployment 4,000
2,000
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Industrial Retail Commercial Other
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FIGURE 25: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2017)
Legend Retail EC 2000-2017
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FIGURE 26: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2017)
Legend Retail EC 2000-2017
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TABLE 10: NEW PLYMOUTH RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY CENTRE (2000-2017)
Nominal Retail Employment 2000 2017 % Growth Growth
CBD Core 1,768 1,877 109 6%
CBD Fringe 1,078 1,328 250 23%
The Valley 35 551 516 1473%
Waitara 146 191 45 31%
Bell Block 87 150 63 72%
Fitzroy 114 112 -2 -2%
Inglewood 82 112 30 37%
Merrilands 58 101 43 75%
Westown 58 74 16 28%
Moturoa 62 53 -9 -14%
Hurdon 85 25 -60 -70%
Spotswood 3 85 82 2733%
Oakura 10 32 22 219%
Okato 8 30 22 274%
Vogeltown 9 6 -3 -36%
Total Centre 3,602 4,727 1,125 31%
Outside of Centre 952 1,239 287 30%
Total 4,554 5,966 1,412 31%
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FIGURE 27: NEW PLMYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2017)
Legend Commercial EC 2000-2017
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FIGURE 28: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2017)
Legend Commercial EC 2000-2017
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TABLE 11: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2017)
Nominal Commercial Employment 2000 2017 % Growth Growth
CBD Core 2,720 2,526 -194 -7%
CBD Fringe 708 1,401 693 98%
Bell Block 143 244 101 70%
The Valley 40 158 118 295%
Westown 52 137 85 163%
Waitara 77 102 25 33%
Inglewood 60 120 60 100%
Fitzroy 44 104 60 137%
Moturoa 25 38 13 53%
Oakura 5 16 11 214%
Vogeltown 6 12 6 96%
Spotswood 12 4 -8 -67%
Merrilands 8 5 -3 -39%
Okato 2 8 6 293%
Hurdon 0 8 8 NA
Total Centre 3,901 4,882 981 25%
Outside of Centre 1,805 3,081 1,276 71%
Total 5,706 7,963 2,257 40%
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13. COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
TABLE 12: NEW PLYMOUTH COMMERCIAL SECTOR GROWTH PROJECTIONS (2017-2048)
Commercial Employment 2017 2023 2033 2048 % Growth
H Accommodation and Food Services 412 377 446 558 36%
J Information Media and Telecommunications 418 496 515 565 35%
K Financial and Insurance Services 496 541 627 772 56%
L Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 597 528 585 689 15%
M Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 2,103 2,356 2,615 3,087 47%
N Administrative and Support Services 1,894 1,978 2,192 2,584 36%
O Public Administration and Safety 380 446 503 602 59%
P Education and Training 369 419 466 550 49%
Q Health Care and Social Assistance 1,134 1,196 1,335 1,585 40%
R Arts and Recreation Services 161 179 200 238 48%
Total All Industries 7,963 8,518 9,483 11,230 41%
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13.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS
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TABLE 13: COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS IN NEW PLYMOUTH (2018-2048)
Commercial Floorspace Sector 2023 2033 2048 Requirements
Commercial Sector Growth (Employment) 8,518 9,483 11,230
Cumulative Floorspace Requirements (sqm) 15,758 43,129 92,670
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14. DISTRICT PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS
14.1. RETAIL
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APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING
NEW PLYMOUTH TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND DISTRICT REGION
Population (Medium) 81,900 119,050 4,864,450
Population (Medium + High Net Migration) 83,400 - -
Households (Medium) 33,250 48,450 1,831,150
GENERAL Households (Medium + High Net Migration) 34,300 - -
Person Per Dwelling Ratio 2.46 2.46 2.66
0–4 Years 7% 7% 7% 5–9 Years 7% 7% 7% 10–14 Years 7% 7% 7% 15–19 Years 6% 6% 7% 20–24 Years 5% 6% 7% 25–29 Years 5% 5% 6% 30–34 Years 6% 6% 6% 35–39 Years 6% 6% 6%
40–44 Years 7% 7% 7% AGE PROFILE AGE 45–49 Years 7% 7% 7% 50–54 Years 7% 7% 7% 55–59 Years 7% 7% 6% 60–64 Years 6% 6% 5% 65 years and Over 17% 17% 14%
$20,000 or Less 12% 12% 11% $20,001–$30,000 12% 13% 11% $30,001–$50,000 19% 19% 18% $50,001–$70,000 15% 15% 15%
INCOME $70,001–$100,000 17% 18% 18% HOUSEHOLD HOUSEHOLD $100,001 or More 25% 24% 28%
$5,000 or Less 12% 12% 15% $5,001–$10,000 5% 5% 5% $10,001–$20,000 19% 19% 18%
$20,001–$30,000 15% 15% 14% INCOME
PERSONAL PERSONAL $30,001–$50,000 22% 22% 21% $50,001 or More 27% 26% 27%
European Ethnic Groups 78% 78% 67% Mäori Ethnic Group 14% 16% 13% Pacific Peoples' Ethnic Groups 2% 1% 7% Asian Ethnic Groups 4% 3% 11%
ETHNICITY MELAA Ethnic Groups 0% 0% 1% Other Ethnic Groups 2% 2% 2%
No Qualification 25% 29% 21% Level 1 Certificate 16% 16% 13% Level 2 Certificate 11% 11% 11% Level 3 Certificate 7% 7% 10% Level 4 Certificate 13% 12% 10% Level 5 or Level 6 Diploma 9% 9% 9% Bachelor Degree and Level 7 Qualifications 10% 9% 14%
ATTAINMENT Postgraduate and Honours Degrees 2% 2% 3% QUALIFICATION QUALIFICATION Masters Degree 2% 1% 3% Doctorate Degree 0% 0% 1% Overseas Secondary School Qualification 4% 4% 7%
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NEW PLYMOUTH TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND DISTRICT REGION Employed - Full Time 48% 49% 48%
Employed - Part Time 15% 15% 14%
Unemployed 4% 4% 5%
EMPLOYMENT Not in Labour Force 33% 33% 33%
Managers 18% 22% 19%
Professionals 20% 17% 23% Technicians and Trades Workers 15% 14% 12% Community and Personal Service Workers 9% 8% 9% Clerical and Administrative Workers 11% 10% 12%
Sales Workers 9% 8% 9% EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT
CLASSIFICATION Machinery Operators and Drivers 6% 6% 5% Labourers 13% 15% 11%
Full Time 8% 7% 11%
Part Time 4% 4% 4% Full-time and Part-time Study 0% 0% 0% RATIO STUDENT STUDENT Not Studying 88% 89% 85%
Wages, Salary, Commissions, Bonuses etc 67% 66% 69% Self-employment or Business 20% 20% 22% Interest, Dividends, Rent, Other Invest. 28% 25% 27%
Payments from a Work Accident Insurer 2% 2% 2% NZ Superannuation or Veterans Pension 24% 22% 22% Other Super., Pensions, Annuities 4% 3% 4% Unemployment Benefit 2% 2% 4% Sickness Benefit 3% 2% 3% Domestic Purposes Benefit 4% 4% 4% Invalids Benefit 3% 3% 3% Student Allowance 2% 1% 4% Other Govt Benefits, Payments or Pension 6% 5% 6%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME SOURCES INCOME HOUSEHOLD Other Sources of Income 2% 2% 3% No Source of Income During That Time 1% 0% 1%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 8% 16% 7%
Mining 3% 2% 0% Manufacturing 13% 15% 10%
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 1% 1% 1% Construction 9% 8% 8% Wholesale Trade 4% 3% 5% Retail Trade 10% 9% 10% Accommodation and Food Services 5% 5% 6% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4% 3% 4% Information Media and Telecommunications 1% 1% 2% Financial and Insurance Services 2% 2% 4% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 2% 2% 2% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 7% 6% 9% Administrative and Support Services 3% 2% 3%
INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT OF INDUSTRY Public Administration and Safety 3% 3% 5% Education and Training 7% 6% 8% Health Care and Social Assistance 12% 10% 10% Arts and Recreation Services 1% 1% 2% Other Services 4% 4% 4%
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NEW PLYMOUTH TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND DISTRICT REGION
Single 26% 26% 23%
Couple 31% 31% 29%
Single Parent With Children 12% 12% 13%
Two Parent Family 27% 27% 30% HOUSEHOLDS
Other Multi-person 4% 3% 5%
1 Residents 26% 27% 23% 2 Residents 37% 37% 34% 3 Residents 16% 15% 16% 4 Residents 13% 13% 15% 5 Residents 5% 5% 7% 6 Residents 2% 2% 3% 7 Residents 1% 1% 1%
NUMBER OF RESIDENTS OF NUMBER 8 Plus Residents 0% 0% 1%
Dwelling Owned or Partly Owned 54% 52% 50%
Dwelling Not Owned and Not Held in a Family Trust 30% 32% 35% HOME HOME
OWNERSHIP Dwelling Held in a Family Trust 15% 16% 15%
0 Years 21% 21% 22% 1–4 Years 31% 30% 30% 5–9 Years 19% 20% 21%
10–14 Years 11% 10% 11% YEARS AT AT YEARS
RESIDENCE 15–29 Years 12% 12% 11% 30 Years or More 6% 6% 5%
One Bedroom 4% 4% 6% Two Bedrooms 19% 17% 19% Three Bedrooms 49% 51% 45% Four Bedrooms 22% 22% 23% Five Bedrooms 4% 4% 6% Six Bedrooms 1% 1% 1% Seven Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%
NUMBER OF BEDROOMS OF NUMBER Eight or More Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%
Under $100 13% 13% 9% $100–$149 10% 11% 7% $150–$199 10% 12% 8% $200–$249 15% 19% 10% $250–$299 19% 19% 13% $300–$349 17% 13% 14%
WEEKLY RENT PAID RENT WEEKLY $350 and Over 17% 13% 39%
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APPENDIX 2: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RETAIL MODEL
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APPENDIX 4: CONVENIENCE STORE TYPE EXAMPLES
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