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New Plymouth Retail Economic Assessment Update

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New Plymouth Retail Economic Assessment Update NEW PLYMOUTH RETAIL Client: ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Project No: UPDATE Date: SCHEDULE Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader 51820.4 June 2019 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................7 1.1. OBJECTIVES ...........................................................................8 1.2. INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES ..............................................9 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................... 10 3. RETAIL MARKET AND OFFICE TRENDS ............................................ 12 3.1. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS ........................................................ 12 3.2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN NEW PLYMOUTH ................................ 14 3.3. CONSUMER EXPECTATION ...................................................... 15 3.4. MAJOR TRANSPORT ROUTES, MALLS, AND LFR ......................... 15 3.5. CLICKS VERSUS BRICKS ........................................................ 16 3.6. OFFICE MARKET TRENDS ........................................................ 17 4. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT CORE MARKET ....................................... 19 5. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ............................................................ 21 6. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH ........................................ 22 7. RETAIL DEMAND AND SUSTAINABLE GFA ........................................ 24 7.1. RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL ................................................. 24 7.2. SUSTAINABLE GFA ................................................................ 26 7.3. RETAIL EXPENDITURE ............................................................ 27 7.4. SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST ................................................. 29 8. CURRENT RETAIL SUPPLY .............................................................. 32 9. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT SPENDING PATTERNS ............................. 38 9.1. DESTINATION SPENDING ....................................................... 38 9.2. ORIGIN OF SPENDING ............................................................ 39 9.3. NET RETAIL FLOWS ............................................................... 40 10. SUPPLY & DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL ................................................. 42 3 11. CONVENIENCE CENTRE OVERVIEW ................................................. 43 11.1. BELL BLOCK ..................................................................... 44 11.2. HURDON .......................................................................... 45 11.3. SPOTSWOOD .................................................................... 46 11.4. INGLEWOOD .................................................................... 47 11.5. VOGELTOWN .................................................................... 48 11.6. WAITARA ......................................................................... 49 11.7. MERRILANDS .................................................................... 49 11.8. WESTOWN ....................................................................... 51 11.9. FITZROY .......................................................................... 52 11.10. OAKURA ........................................................................ 53 11.11. OKATO .......................................................................... 54 11.12. MOTUROA ..................................................................... 55 12. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ............................ 56 13. COMMERCIAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ......................... 64 13.1. COMMERCIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS ................................... 65 14. DISTRICT PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................. 67 14.1. RETAIL ............................................................................ 67 14.2. INDUSTRIAL ..................................................................... 68 APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING .............................................. 70 APPENDIX 2: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RETAIL MODEL ............................. 73 APPENDIX 3: BUSINESS CLASSIFICATIONS .......................................... 78 APPENDIX 4: CONVENIENCE STORE TYPE EXAMPLES ............................. 80 4 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECAST ($M) ...................................... 27 TABLE 2: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE FORECASTS BY STORE TYPE ($M) .............. 29 TABLE 3: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL SUSTAINABLE GFA BY SECTOR (SQM)........................................ 30 TABLE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECAST BY STORE TYPE (SQM) .............................. 30 TABLE 5: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRE RETAIL AUDIT APRIL 2016 ........................................................ 32 TABLE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRES RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT APRIL 2016 .................................... 36 TABLE 7: NEWPLYMOUTH RETAIL STORE SIZE AUDIT BY CENTRE (2016) ......................................... 37 TABLE 8: DEMAND AND SUPPLY DIFFERENTIAL FOR NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ................................ 42 TABLE 9: NEW PLYMOUTH EMPLOYMENT TRENDS BY INDUSTRY 2000 - 2018 ................................... 56 TABLE 10: NEW PLYMOUTH RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY CENTRE (2000-2018) ........................ 60 TABLE 11: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ................. 63 TABLE 12: NEW PLYMOUTH COMMERCIAL SECTOR GROWTH PROJECTIONS (2018-2048) ................... 64 TABLE 13: COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE REQUIREMENTS IN NEW PLYMOUTH (2018-2048) .................. 66 5 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: ONLINE RETAIL SALES VS TOTAL RETAIL SALES GROWTH .............................................. 13 FIGURE 2: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (CORE ECONOMIC MARKET) ................................................. 19 FIGURE 3: NEW PLYMOUTH SUBURBAN CATCHMENTS AND BUSINESS ZONES .................................. 20 FIGURE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ........................ 22 FIGURE 5: POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT ........................................... 23 FIGURE 6: NEW PLYMOUTH ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR ($M).................................... 28 FIGURE 7: NEW PLYMOUTH CENTRES RETAIL COMPOSITION APRIL 2016 ......................................... 34 FIGURE 8: DESTINATION OF RETAIL SPENDING BY NEW PLYMOUTH RESIDENTS .............................. 39 FIGURE 9: ORIGIN OF RETAIL SPENDING IN NEW PLYMOUTH ......................................................... 40 FIGURE 10: NEW PLYMOUTH NET POSITION BY RETAIL SECTOR ..................................................... 41 FIGURE 11: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL CENTRES ...................................................... 43 FIGURE 12: BELL BLOCK CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW (2018-2048) ......................................... 44 FIGURE 13: HURDON CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ................................................................. 45 FIGURE 14: SPOTSWOOD CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ........................................................... 46 FIGURE 15: INGLEWOOD CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...................................... 47 FIGURE 16: VOGELTOWN CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ...................................... 48 FIGURE 17: WAITARA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ........................................... 49 FIGURE 18: MERRILANDS CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ..................................... 49 FIGURE 19: WESTOWN CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ......................................... 51 FIGURE 20: FITZROY CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ............................................ 52 FIGURE 21: OAKURA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ............................................ 53 FIGURE 22: OKATO CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW .............................................. 54 FIGURE 23: MOUROA CONVENIENCE CENTRE STATISTICAL OVERVIEW ........................................... 55 FIGURE 24: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRACKING BY CATEGORY (2000-2018) ..................................... 57 FIGURE 25: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ........................ 58 FIGURE 26: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ................................ 59 FIGURE 27: NEW PLMYMOUTH DISTRICT COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ............. 61 FIGURE 28: NEW PLYMOUTH CBD COMMERCIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2000-2018) ....................... 62 6 1. INTRODUCTION 7 1.1. OBJECTIVES • • • • • • • • • • 8 1.2. INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES • • • • • • • • • 9 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 11 3. RETAIL MARKET AND OFFICE TRENDS 3.1. RETAIL MARKET TRENDS 1 BNZ Online Sales Index: https://www.bnz.co.nz/business-banking/support/commentary/online-retail-sales-index 12 FIGURE 1: ONLINE RETAIL SALES VS TOTAL RETAIL SALES GROWTH 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% in Previous Year Previousin 2% 0% Quarterly GrowthQuarterlytoQuarterComparedSame Total Retail Total Online Index 13 3.2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN NEW PLYMOUTH 14 3.3. CONSUMER EXPECTATION 3.4. MAJOR TRANSPORT ROUTES, MALLS, AND LFR 15 3.5. CLICKS VERSUS BRICKS 16 3.6. OFFICE MARKET TRENDS • • • • • • 17 • 18 4. NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT CORE MARKET FIGURE 2: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT (CORE ECONOMIC MARKET) 19 FIGURE 3: NEW PLYMOUTH SUBURBAN CATCHMENTS AND BUSINESS ZONES 20 5. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING • • • • • • 21 6. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH FIGURE 4: NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 120000 106,100 103,000
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