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PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: COLORADO, MARYLAND, NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA, and UTAH PLUS RUNOFFS in MISSISSIPPI and SOUTH CAROLINA

PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: COLORADO, MARYLAND, NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA, and UTAH PLUS RUNOFFS in MISSISSIPPI and SOUTH CAROLINA

PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: , , , OKLAHOMA, and PLUS RUNOFFS IN and SOUTH CAROLINA

PRIME-ARY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements.

As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions!

COLORADO

Colorado holds a PVI score of +1 and features two races that are well worth watching. The gubernatorial race should be a tight race and the 6th district race features a seat that the Democrats hope to win back in November.

GUBERNATORIAL

With incumbent Democratic Gov. term-limited out, the Colorado governor race is open. Colorado tends to elect Democratic governors and this race is viewed as a lean democrat by the Cook Political Report.

Walker Stapleton (R) Colorado state treasurer Walker Stapleton has won the Republican primary with 47% of the vote. Stapleton defeated former state Rep. Vic Mitchell, Doug Robinson, a first-time candidate and nephew of former Massachusetts Gov. ; and businessman Greg Lopez. Stapleton has closely aligned himself with President. Trump's tax and immigration policies. Stapleton promises to keep energy jobs in the state and lower taxes.

Jared Polis (D) Democrat Rep. has won the primary election to run for Colorado governor in November. Polis won with 44% of the vote and has represented Colorado's 2nd district since 2009. Polis beat out Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne, former state Sen. Michael Johnston, and former state treasurer Cary Kennedy. Polis promises to protect Colorado residents from efforts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, and pledges to secure free pre-K and full-day public kindergarten for Colorado students.

CO-06

The 6th district of Colorado stretches from Brighton to Littleton and through demographically diverse Aurora and is divided almost evenly among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters. In the 2016 election, the district voted for Hilary Clinton with 50% of the vote. This district has a PVI Score + 2 and is considered a "Toss-Up" by the Cook Political Report. Incumbent Rep. Coffman ran unopposed. Coffman has defeated a has defeated a string of Democratic challengers over five election cycles, starting in 2008. In 2016 he won with 51% of the vote, but he will face a stiff challenge from Crow this election especially given the current political environment.

Jason Crow (D) , a former army ranger and current lawyer won the democratic election with 67.5% of the vote defeating former Obama Energy Department official Levi Tilleman. Crow plans to tackle education inequality, work for universal and affordable health care, and fight to reduce gun violence in the country. This seat that is seen as key in the Democrats hopes of winning the House back.

MARYLAND

This traditionally Democratic state will feature a competitive gubernatorial race in November, as well as an open Congressional seat that is being vacated by Rep. John Delaney, who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. GUBERNATORIAL

The incumbent Gov. ran unopposed in the primary, and will officially be representing the Republican Party in his bid for reelection. Hogan won his 2014 race by 4 points in a drastically different political climate, however Secretary Clinton won Maryland by 27 points in the 2016 Presidential Election. With that being said, the Cook Political Report still ranks this race as "Likely Republican" due to Hogan's popularity. (D) Ben Jealous won the Democratic primary last night with 39.9% of the vote, besting 8 other candidates. Jealous has previously served as the President and CEO of the NAACP, where was voted into his role at the age of 35, making him the youngest person to hold that position the organization's 109-year history. He is running on a progressive platform, and will be a candidate to keep an eye on in state that is gradually becoming more liberal.

MD-06

This western Maryland district is considered "Safe Democratic." It has a PVI of D+6. Its current representative, John Delaney, was first elected in 2012 and is leaving to pursue higher office.

David Trone (D) defeated Aruna Miller last night by a margin of 40.4% to 30.6%, respectfully. Trone is a businessman and entrepreneur, who gained a small fortune from co-founding Total Wine and More - an alcoholic beverage retail giant. He has strong support from the ACLU, and has been vocal in his advocacy to keep people out of prison for minor offences. He unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic primary in 2016, and hopes to replace Rep. Delaney - who is leaving his seat to challenge for the Democratic nomination for President in 2020.

Amie Hoever (R) Amie Hoever dominated the Republican primary field, winning 68% of the vote and easily beating her three opponents who combined for an underwhelming 32% of the vote. Hoever is national security expert who served as Deputy Under Secretary of the Army under President Reagan, and whose career has focused on nuclear, chemical, and biological threats and deterrent policy to combat them. Since her retirement from government, However has worked in government consulting, and is running a platform to improve ground transportation infrastructure, combat the opioid epidemic, and apply free market principles to the healthcare industry.

MISSISSIPPI (RUNOFF)

Mississippi will have an interesting election in November, at least partly because the state's two U.S. Senate seats will both be on the ballot, thanks to the retirement of longtime Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS). Republicans will look to head-off a result similar to that of Alabama's special Senate election last year, when Democratic Sen. Doug Jones was able to seize the opportunity in a deep red state because of a deeply flawed opponent.

There is no primary election for Cochran's Senate seat, and the candidates will battle for election in November.

It had one congressional race go to runoff.

MS-03

This Safe Republican seat is open in November because of the retirement of five-term congressman Gregg Harper (R). Harper currently represents Jackson, Mississippi, and won his last election with 66% of the vote.

Although Michael Evans, a poultry farmer, won the Democratic primary by 38 points, he is unlikely to win in November.

Michael Guest (R) Michael Guest and White Hughes competed in a runoff for the Republican nomination for Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District after both came up short of the 50% threshold needed to advance in the Mississippi's primary system. Guest came into the runoff the clear favorite after winning 45% of the vote in the primary, and shocked nobody when he received just over 65% of the vote Tuesday night, sealing his victory and launching him into the general election for retiring Rep. Gregg Harper's seat. Guest has spent his career working as a prosecutor in Mississippi, was an early supporter of then-candidate Trump, and has received the endorsement of Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant. Expect him to easily win the general election in November in a district that went Republican by over 30 points in 2016.

NEW YORK

New York has a number of very competitive House races this year, as well as Senate and gubernatorial races that will likely generate headlines. Additionally, yesterday produced the first defeat of a sitting Democratic congressman this cycle, joining two Republicans that have already fallen to challengers.

SENATE

Sen. (D) ran unopposed in this year's Democratic primary, and she will be heavily favored to win reelection in November. Gillibrand was elected in 2012 and won over 72% of the vote. Cook Political Report has this race rated as "Safe Democratic."

Gillibrand will face Chele Farley in November. Farley is a partner in a private equity firm and also ran unopposed in her primary. NY-01

This eastern Long Island Congressional district is rated as "Likely Republican" by Cook Political Report. It has a PVI of R+5. Rep. (R) was first elected in 2014 when he defeated Rep. (D).

Perry Gershon (D) Perry Gershon came out of a crowded Democratic primary to win the opportunity to face Rep. Zeldin in November. Gershon, who campaigned as a progressive, was registered to vote in before using his family's second residence in East Hampton to register within the 1st District.

NY-11

NY-11 encompasses all of and parts of . The District is rated "Lean Republican" and has a PVI of R+3.

The District featured a nasty Republican primary last night with former Representative (and convicted felon) Michael Grimm attempting to win back his seat from Rep. . Donovan was able to beat back the challenge and will be faced with a tough Democratic candidate in November.

Max Rose (D) , the former Chief of Staff for Brightpoint Health - a nonprofit healthcare organization - emphasized his military bona fides in his campaign. He is a veteran of the U.S. Army and served in , where he was awarded the Bronze Star and . During the campaign, he emphasized healthcare and gun violence issues.

NY-14

This Safe Democratic District was featured the first defeat of a sitting Democratic Representative this cycle. Rep. , the Chairman of the , was first elected in 1998. For the last seven cycles, Crowley had run unopposed. Even though he had a significant monetary advantage, his Democratic primary opponent focused on grassroots outreach and criticized Crowley as being too removed from his district - a message that was reinforced when Crowley failed to show up for a debate.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) Ocasio-Cortez, an active member of the Democratic Socialists of America, ran on a very progressive platform. She advocated for the abolition of ICE, universal healthcare, and a federal jobs guarantee. With the makeup of the district (D+29), she is almost assured a spot in Congress in January.

NY-19

New York's 19th Congressional District is located in the Hudson Valley. It is currently rated as a Tossup by Cook Political Report and has a PVI of R+2. Rep. (R) is in his first term in Congress, having defeated Democrat Zephyr Teachout in 2016.

Antonio Delgado (D) Antonio Delgado won 22% of the vote in the Democratic Primary, giving him the opportunity to take of Rep. Faso. Delgado raised a considerable amount of money, giving him an edge over his competitors. He previously ran a record label in Los Angeles.

NY-22

The 22nd Congressional District, located in central New York, is one of the most competitive races in the country. Rep. (R) is currently serving her first term and is seen by Democrats as being particularly at risk because of a number of the positions she has taken, as well as her vocal support of President Trump. The District is rated as "Tossup" and has a PVI of R+6.

Anthony Brindisi (D) Brindisi has served in the New York State Assembly since 2011. Prior to his election, he served on the Utica School Board and has remained a vocal supporter of public schools. During the campaign, he touted his ability to be an independent voice, as well as his fights to secure increased educational funding and bringing more jobs and training programs to the district.

NY-24

The district, which includes the city of Syracuse, is rated as "Likely Republican" even though it has a PVI of D+3. The district voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last three elections, and Clinton won it in 2016 with 49%. It is currently represented by Rep. (R), who was elected in 2014 by beating Rep. Dan Maffei by 20 points. Dana Balter (D) Balter pulled off the upset last night when she defeated Juanita Perez Williams by winning 62% of the vote. Perez Williams had been supported by the national Democratic Party, while Balter was able to secure the support of the local Democratic parties and their leaders. Balter currently teaches at Syracuse University and is a doctoral candidate.

NY-25

The Congressional seat for the 25th District came open suddenly when its long-time representative, (D), died earlier this year. The district, which takes up all of Monroe County and includes the city of Rochester, is considered Safe Democratic. Last night's winner of the Democratic primary is all but guaranteed to represent the District in Washington next year.

Joseph Morelle (D) Morelle has served in the New York State Assembly since 1991 and was appointed Majority Leader in 2013. Morelle won more than 45% of the vote last night and cruised to victory.

OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma is a reliably Republican state and likely will not have any competitive House races in November. However, the state's gubernatorial race could present Democrats with an opportunity to steal a seat.

GUBERNATORIAL

The Cook Political Report ranks this race as "Solid Republican." However, Democrats have had some luck in flipping legislative seats in the state for the past couple of years, which may portend interesting things for November.

Mick Cornett (R) Mick Cornett edged out 9 opponents Tuesday Night, winning the Republican primary with 29.3% of the vote. Cornett will be the likely favorite to replace Gov. Fallin, who is barred from running for reelection due to term limits restrictions. Cornett is running on a moderate platform that emphasizes competitive pay for school teachers, balancing the budget, and making Oklahoma a business friendly state to attract jobs. Drew Edmondson (D) Drew Edmondson has won the Democratic primary for Governor after defeating Connie Johnson by a margin of 61.4%. to 38.6%, respectfully. Edmondson in a strong candidate for Governor - he is a Navy veteran who served in Vietnam, served in the Oklahoma state legislature, and served as Oklahoma Attorney General for 16 years. He is running a populist, anti-establishment message, and has promised to fight for the working class in Oklahoma against lobbyist and the corruptive influence of Wall Street. Despite his promising resume and platform, he has an uphill battle this November as Oklahoma voted for Republican Gov. Mary Fallin by a 15-point margin in 2014.

SOUTH CAROLINA

The Palmetto held its runoff yesterday to set the elections for November. Favorites in all of these races prevailed.

GUBERNATORIAL

Incumbent Henry McMaster failed to secure a 51% majority on the Republican side, sending him to a runoff against John Warren. McMaster has still yet to win a statewide race for governor, as he succeeded former Governor Nikki Haley when she was confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in January 2017. The second, third, and fourth place vote- getters far exceeded McMaster's 154,000, leading to a runoff outcome that's anything but certain. McMaster is a close Trump ally who, as lieutenant governor, was one of nation's first politicians to endorse Trump early in the 2015 primaries.

Henry McMaster (R) On the eve of yesterday's runoff in the Republican governor's race, President Trump was in West Columbia, SC to stump for Governor Henry McMaster. Trump's last-minute trip may just have given McMaster the extra boost he needed, as he defeated John Warren by just under 7%. As the former lieutenant governor, McMaster was one of the first politicians to endorse Trump in the 2015 primaries. After succeeding former Governor Nikki Haley in January 2017, McMaster now aims at winning his first statewide race for governor. He will face Democrat James Smith in the general election.

SC-04

The upstate South Carolina district includes the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg, and has become dependably Republican, with a Cook PVI Score of R+15. Both the Democratic and Republican primaries will head to runoffs. (R) The South Carolina Republican establishment breathed a sigh of relief yesterday evening when William Timmons edged Lee Bright to succeed Trey Gowdy, who is retiring at the end of this term. Bright has a long history of bringing negative press to the state through highly controversial positions and remarks, even prompting former Governor Nikki Haley to campaign for Bright's primary opponent in the 2016 state senate race. Timmons is 34-year old state senator and former prosecutor who had the backing of many in the Greenville business community and even Senator Marco Rubio.

Brandon Brown (D) Brandon Brown defeated Doris Turner in the Democratic runoff, garnering 62% of the vote. Brown is a Greenville native and founder of the Historical Black College and University Sports Classic, which has contributed more than $200,000 to institutions across the Southeast. He'll have an extremely uphill battle in a general election against William Timmons to flip the largely conservative district.

UTAH

Utah is a reliably Republican state, and its likely that it will elect a Republican to replace longtime Senator, and current Senate Finance Committee Chairman, Orrin Hatch. However, the state also features one of the most competitive House races in the country that will bear watching in November.

SENATE

Utah will lose its long-serving Senator next year due to his retirement. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) was first elected in 1976 and has served as head for some of the most powerful committees in the Senate.

Mitt Romney (R) Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor and 2012 Republican presidential nominee, was heavily favored to win the Republican primary. Winning 71% of the vote against state representative Mike Kennedy, he will succeed the retiring 84 year old president pro temp of the Senate, Orrin Hatch, who is the longest-serving Republican Senator. Romney's succession of Hatch will present an interesting dynamic in the Republican Senate Conference as Romney has been an occasional opponent of , calling the then-candidate Trump a "phony" and "fraud" in 2016.

Jenny Wilson (D) Jenny Wilson, who ran unopposed, is a councilwoman and small business owner. She will face Mitt Romney in November in attempts at becoming the state's first Democratic senator in over 40 years.

UT-04

While the district has a safe Republican Cook PVI score of R+13, President Trump was not necessarily a popular candidate here, only winning the district by 7 points. The district is fairly urban, concentrated mainly in Salt Lake County and a large urban portions of Salt Lake City.

In a district where incumbent Republican Congresswoman is far more popular than the president, Love ran unopposed in yesterday's Republican primary. She is the only African American woman in Congress, and one of the most vocal Republican critics of the president. She will defend her seat against Democrat Ben McAdams in November, vying for her third term in Congress.

Ben McAdams (D) Salt Lake City mayor and former Utah state senator, Ben McAdams also ran unopposed and will challenge incumbent Mia Love in November. McAdams has been critical of the GOP tax overhaul, as well as supported expanding Medicaid. He will attempt to flip a largely conservative district that was last held by a Democrat, , as recently as 2014.

Prepared by Casie Daugherty, Owen Taylor, Sam Lane, and Kevin Klikenberg

Prime Policy Group | www.prime-policy.com | 202 530 0500

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