December 2016 - March 2017
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December 2016 - March 2017 In this Issue: KRE in Mexico Page 1 Global Incidents Snapshot Page 11 red24 Special Risks Locations Page 18 About us – red24 Page 19 Welcome to the December 2016 - March 2017 edition of the red24 Kidnap for Ransom and Extortion (KRE) Global Monitor. This quarterly publication, authored by red24’s Special Risks Analysts, provides Liberty International Underwriters (LIU) clients with important information on recent incidents, as well as current and emerging KRE trends. In this edition, we focus on the threat of kidnapping in Mexico. Our incidents snapshot section provides a short analysis of significant KRE incidents reported between 15 December 2016 and 15 March 2017, including details of incidents in Afghanistan, Brazil, China, Greece, India, Iraq, Kenya, Libya, Mozambique, the Philippines, Russia, Syria, Turkey and the US. Together with LIU, red24 can help ensure that your clients are protected before, during and after a crisis. If you have any feedback on the red24 KRE Global Monitor, or if you would like to suggest a specific country, topic or theme for inclusion in a future issue, please do not hesitate to email [email protected]. KRE in Mexico Kidnap for ransom and extortion (KRE) has long been synonymous with Mexico and the country's overall kidnapping threat is rated as high. Mexico has consistently featured in the top kidnapping hotspots globally for several years, and in terms of threat levels in the Americas in 2016, Mexico retained its unenviable position as the worst kidnapping-affected state in the region. red24 rates Mexico as a high-risk destination and operating environment, due to a number of security concerns, including, but not limited to KRE. Additional security threats include elevated high levels of petty and violent crime, corruption, political unrest and persistent drug cartel-related violence, all of which contribute to an environment conducive to kidnapping activity. red24 anticipates that Mexico will continue to rank among the world’s top ten worst kidnapping-affected countries in 2017. With many multinational companies maintaining large local employee bases Annual reported kidnapping incidents 1997 to 2016 and maintaining or pursuing an extensive 1800 operational presence in Mexico, 1600 kidnapping and extortion will continue to present particularly credible security 1400 risks to local employees and business 1200 operations. Although locals will remain the predominant target of kidnappers and 1000 extortionists, the KRE threat to foreign 800 travellers will remain elevated, especially 600 to persons conducting longer-term travel in higher-risk areas. 400 200 Due to the nature of the security 0 environment, and factors such as 0 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 poor law enforcement and judicial 1997 1998 1999 2 2001 2002 2003 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 systems, accurate data sourcing and Liberty KRE Global Monitor - December 2016 - March 2017 01 Liberty KRE Global Monitor - December 2016 - March 2017 authentication poses a major challenge when assessing the nature and extent of the kidnapping threat in Mexico. The general crime under-reporting rate in Mexico is assessed to be high by regional and international standards. According to a recent study by the Center for Impunity and Justice Studies (CESIJ), less than seven percent of all crimes in Mexico are reported, of which only approximately 4.5 percent are successfully prosecuted. These statistics point to a potential under- reporting rate of more than 90 percent, and a conviction rate of approximately one percent of total crimes committed. When it comes to kidnapping incidents, under-reporting rates are widely believed to be especially high; perceptions of police/ bureaucratic corruption/collusion and/or ineffectiveness and an increased possibility of retaliation (in the form of further incidents or reprisal violence), mean that the majority of kidnappings are not reported to police. Under-reporting aside, the differing methodology used in compiling official and unofficial data on kidnapping in Mexico presents a further challenge. Official government statistics are based on recorded kidnapping incidents (where cases have been opened with police); other agencies compile data using anecdotal and survey-based evidence as well. In the case of government statistics, kidnappings that result in deaths are listed as homicides. Although official data includes, but does not distinguish between, economic kidnapping (abductions for financial advantage) and political/ideological kidnapping (abductions for political concessions), other forms of the crime are excluded; these include custodial, tiger, express and virtual kidnappings. According to the National Commission of Security (SESNSP), a total of 5,273 kidnapping incidents were recorded during the four-year period between January 2013 and December 2016. However, in a recently released report by non-governmental kidnapping watchdog, Alto al Secuestro, approximately 8,669 kidnappings were reported during that period. Further challenging these figures, the latest 2016 National Survey of Victimization and Perception on Public Security (ENVIPE), stated that approximately 62,636 people had been affected by kidnapping in 2015 alone. In light of the above challenges, it is generally accepted that government statistics in Mexico fail to accurately represent the actual threat level on the ground. Nonetheless, they do form a consistent, and thus fairly useful, baseline from which to identify changes in kidnapping characteristics in the country, on both a state and municipal level. Analysing annual changes in kidnap incident levels, together with related crime and drug-cartel developments, is helpful in assessing and forecasting kidnapping trends. For the purpose of baseline consistency, unless otherwise noted, the graphically illustrated figures in this report are sourced from official government reports released by the SESNSP. According to SESNSP statistics, the decrease in reported kidnapping incidents in Mexico, witnessed since 2014, was subject to a slight reversal in 2016. A total of 1,128 kidnap incidents were reported in 2016, compared to the annual total of 1,067 in 2015. It is red24’s position that upwards of 4,000 traditional kidnappings occur in Mexico on an annual basis. Background to Mexico's kidnapping threat and recent government initiatives against it While kidnapping has been a key feature of Mexico’s security environment for decades, the nature of the threat has evolved in terms of scope and scale in response to domestic and regional developments. Kidnapping initially emerged in Mexico as a tactic of the militant wings of marginalised political groupings during a period of widespread political unrest in the 1980s. These groups orchestrated kidnappings as both an income-generating tactic and a means to elicit political concessions. Successful security operations by Mexican security agencies led to a decline in politically motivated and criminal kidnappings in the mid-1990s. However, incident figures surged again in 2006 in response to government offensives initiated by the former president, Felipe Calderon, against criminal gangs, which were recognising the potential rewards associated with KRE activity and increasingly participating in this form of crime. Although Calderon experienced some success in targeting and reducing the operations of kidnapping groups, unforeseen ramifications of his government’s security plan included an upsurge in violence and KRE activity between 2008 and 2011. The election campaign of Calderon’s successor, President Enrique Pena Nieto, was, to a large degree, built on instituting new military, political and socio-political strategies to combat the country's rampant violence and high kidnapping levels. During his first year in office in 2013, Nieto’s strategy appeared to be gaining momentum, with the 22 February 2014 arrest of the Sinaloa drug cartel kingpin, Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman. The creation of the National Gendarmerie Division in 2014 was also touted as a key development for improving security in Mexico; however, security-related developments from mid-2014 onwards, including the much-publicised abduction and murder of 43 students in Guerrero state, and the 2015 escape of Guzman, placed increasing pressure on Nieto’s regime to take further action against criminal kidnapping perpetrators and drug cartels in Mexico. While Nieto’s government has made some strides in addressing Mexico's security challenges, including a reported decrease in kidnapping incidents between 2012 and 2015, his strategy has also faced major challenges. These have included persisitent political instability, various socio-economic challenges, and changes in the structure and modus operandi of drug cartels in response to government offensives against them. It is within this environment Liberty KRE Global Monitor - December 2016 - March 2017 02 Liberty KRE Global Monitor - December 2016 - March 2017 that Mexico's kidnapping threat has continued to evolve and flourish, with extortion and non-traditional kidnapping activity, such as virtual kidnapping and cybercrime, increasingly coming to the fore. Furthermore, homicide figures increased in 2016, raising concerns regarding President Nieto’s ability to guarantee security in the lead-up to the 2018 presidential election, a period that precedent indicates will likely be characterised by a further increase in criminal activity, violence and political instability. As President Nieto's