Getting More from Your Technology to Master Cash Forecasting
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Getting More From Your Technology to Master Cash Forecasting Marci Lerner, Jeff Diorio, Ed Barrie, Treasurer Director Director Hologic Treasury Strategies Tableau Agenda Framing Forecasting – Influences – Challenges – Approach Treasury Case Study: Hologic Technology Case Study: Tableau Forecasting Best Practices Forecasting Influences, Challenges and Approach 2019 Survey Results Results of interviews of 30 Treasurers put Forecasting improvement as the top item on their to-do list for 2019. Results of online survey of 400 Treasury users indicated Forecasting was #2 item they were focused on and #3 on list of knowing what their peers did. Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank Rank OPPORTUNITIES BENCHMARKING 2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2017 Working capital management 1 - - Bank service fees 1 1 1 Cash forecasting 2 3 4 Bank relationship management 2 5 7 Financial risk management, FX and 3 1 1 Cash forecasting 3 4 8 IR Bank relationship management 4 5 3 Best practices 4 2 3 Treasury staffing levels and skill 5 8 8 Treasury staffing and skill Levels 5 6 4 sets Why forecast HIGH LEVEL BLUEPRINT OF COMPANY’S FINANCIAL FUTURE • Ensure access to adequate capital – cash and credit » Short-term → Liquidity planning [Treasury] » Long-term → Capital planning [FP&A] • Ensure effective working capital management: Is cash effectively deployed? • Effectively manage risk: Where are we exposed in terms of changing interest rates? • Design a capital structure that supports business plan • Anticipate impact on earnings, profits, EPS Why are there Barriers to Overcome? A majority of organizations indicate they are “less-than-satisfied” with their cash forecasting processes and forecast accuracy Many organizations face the same kinds of forecasting challenges Low interest environment led to benign neglect Issues Treasury and Finance Users Note •Insufficient resources •Ineffective forecast methodology, tools •Poor information access/exchange •Poor internal knowledge of cash flows •GIGO (accurate data sources) •Low priority by senior management •Inconsistency between short-term cash •Organizational complexity forecast and budget Budget vs liquidity RECONCILING BUDGET CASH WITH LIQUIDITY CASH IS DIFFICULT – THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BUDGET LIQUIDITY Pro Forma Financials Manage Liquidity GAAP Accounting Actual Cash Ledger Balances Available Balances Long-Term (1–5 yrs) Less than 1 year Periodic Updates Frequent Updates Different goals Different perspective Different measure of cash Different time horizon Different schedule Treasury can have multiple forecasts / time horizons They should be linked, but all have different objectives and uses LONG TERM MEDIUM TERM NEAR TERM Objectives: Objectives: Objectives: Daily cash positioning Liquidity planning, borrowing Long-term capital management Invest/borrow decisions decisions and earnings protection Horizon: Horizon: Horizon: 1–4 weeks 13–18 weeks 12–18 months Detail: Detail: Detail: Most granular, account level Medium Summary level detail; focus on details balance sheet, business Frequency: categories Frequency: Weekly Daily Frequency: Update: Update: Monthly or Quarterly Weekly Intraday, as needed Update: Monthly Spreadsheet Limitations SPREADSHEETS ARE EASY…WHEN YOUR FORECAST IS EASY Become less effective when integrating data sources Domestic Cash Forecast 7/14/14 7/15/14 7/16/14 7/17/14 7/18/14 7/21/14 7/22/14 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Mon Tue Not truly multi-user Beginning Balance (MMF) 582.00 598.49 1037.44 1283.22 554.96 515.13 536.16 Cash Activity Expected Receivables 46.49 104.95 0.78 2.74 0.17 51.03 165.33 Expected Payables (30.00) (30.00) (30.00) (30.00) (30.00) (30.00) (30.00) – Lack controls Expected Payroll (50.00) (10.00) Netting Payments/Receipts (651.00) Treasury Wires (11.00) (100.00) – Lack audit trails IC Payments/Receipts Borrowing Activity CP Maturing (125.00) (125.00) Difficult to compare versions CP Issuance 500.00 500.00 Ending Balance 598.49 1037.44 1283.22 554.96 515.13 536.16 671.49 – e.g. variance analysis CP Outstanding (250.00) (625.00) (1000.00) (1000.00) (1000.00) (1000.00) (1000.00) All balances are in MM But most organizations forecast using spreadsheets Treasury Case Study: Hologic Company Overview COMPANY PROFILE • Hologic is an innovative medical technology company primarily focused on improving women's health and well-being through early detection and treatment • We are the leader in 3-D Mammography and Cervical Cancer screening The Company operates five core business units focused on breast health, diagnostic testing, GYN surgical, skeletal health and medical aesthetics • $3 billion revenue, $12 billion market cap, global publicly-traded company headquartered in Marlborough, MA Forecast Strategy Hologic Cash Flow Forecasting Strategy Why is Cash Flow Forecasting so important? Treasury’s #1 job is to provide the right amount of cash, in the right currency, in the right entity, at the right time, to support the business Goals Solution Result • To forecast future cash flow in order • Reval treasury management system • Short-term daily direct US cash to support short-term and long-term • Create multiple detailed cash forecast allows us to avoid cash business needs forecasts to identify future cash surprises and have funds readily • To ensure sufficient near-term needs available liquidity is in place to meet • Weekly and monthly direct US cash • Identify key variables, assumptions operational and strategic cash and stakeholders driving cash trends forecast and long-term indirect needs and variances global forecast help to identify • To highlight a borrowing need in liquidity risks and opportunities to • Monitor and analyze how the advance the business business is performing • Forecasting cycle and process helps • Monitor accuracy of cash flow to improve coordination between forecasting and make improvements Treasury and other departments - eliminates surprises Forecast Process Forecasting Cycle Hologic Treasury leads an engaging process with the Business to create our multiple cash forecasts Our TMS system is one database integrating all modules to report all Treasury transactions across the Company and around the globe US Direct CF US Short-Term Direct Cash Flow Forecast 3/11/2019 - 3/15/2019 USD ACTUAL FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST We utilize Reval TMS – an automated SAS treasury system, for Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday our Cash Flow forecasting process: Opening Balances 78,000,000 87,000,000 98,000,000 85,000,000 82,000,000 Operating Cashflows • Bank statements are automatically uploaded into Reval on a daily basis Receipts 12,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 from our main operating bank Total Receipts 12,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 16,000,000 Disbursements • Reconciliation occurs between the Reval bank activity and the bank Total Vendor & Tax Payments (3,000,000) (2,000,000) (17,000,000) (1,000,000) (25,000,000) statements Total Payroll/Benefits - - (12,000,000) (18,000,000) - • Bank transactions are automatically categorized through Reval based on Total Interest Expense - - - - - CTR’s (cash transaction reason) allowing the transactions to flow into Total Intercompany - (3,000,000) - - - the correct cash flow buckets Total Interest Income/Bank Fees - - - - - • Export daily bank activity out of Reval and into Excel and use that export Sweeps/Funding - - - - - to update our weekly cash forecast template (pictured to the right) Total Hedges - - - - - • A daily email is sent out to the Treasury team indicating where we Total Other - - - - - currently stand with cash and what we expect our end of the week Total MMDA Investments - - - - - balance will be Total Operational Cashflows 9,000,000 11,000,000 (13,000,000) (3,000,000) (9,000,000) Provides a daily view of bank activity and US liquidity - Actuals Non Operational Cashflows and Forecast Total Stock Options & RSU's - - - - - Identifies where we currently stand with cash Total Debt Principal Payments - - - - - • Should we: Total Stock Repurchase - - - - - • Invest cash Total Investments - - - - - Total Other - - - - - • Pay down debt Total Non Operational Cashflows - - - - - Borrow more • Calculated Ending Balances 87,000,000 98,000,000 85,000,000 82,000,000 73,000,000 Cash Increase/(Decrease) 9,000,000 11,000,000 (13,000,000) (3,000,000) (9,000,000) US Direct CF US Short-Term Direct Cash Forecast – Continued Current Day Cash Balances Breakdown • As part of a daily US cash Total Balance as of 03.11.19 = email, we also describe $170M cash by geography and investment account UK, $60 LATAM, $10 Other, $30 Other, $5 • This data is from Reval, US, $80 Canada, and the snapshot can be $15 pulled at anytime • Data is automatically updated 3 times a day for current day bank activity US Direct CF US Weekly/Monthly Direct Cash Flow Forecasting ACTUAL ACTUAL FORECAST FORECAST FORECAST Q2 Q2 CWQ2 CWQ2 Q2 CW 2/24/2019- CW 3/3/2019- 3/10/2019- 3/17/2019- CW 3/24/2019- Export prior week actuals out of Reval into Excel every 2/24/2019 - 3/30/2019 USD 3/2/2019 3/9/2019 3/16/2019 3/23/2019 3/30/2019 Tuesday morning Opening Balances 81,800,000 79,300,000 78,000,000 76,300,000 79,500,000 Operating Cashflows Update weekly/monthly cash forecast template in Total Receipts 75,000,000 72,000,000 76,000,000 76,000,000 86,000,000 Disbursements Excel and adjust for known forecast developments Total Vendor & Tax Payments (51,000,000) (42,000,000) (42,000,000) (38,000,000) (38,000,000) Load forecast back into Reval to ensure that the Total Payroll/Benefits (32,000,000) (8,000,000) (30,000,000) (5,000,000) (30,000,000) system is updated Total Interest Expense - - (1,000,000) 200,000 - Total Intercompany (5,000,000) 2,500,000 (4,700,000) - - Early indicator of Free Cash Flow for CFO at quarter- Total Interest Income/Bank Fees - - - - end 2 weeks before we get the “official numbers” from Sweeps/Funding - - - - - Corporate Accounting Total Hedges - - - - 300,000 Total Other 9,500,000 3,200,000 - - 2,800,000 Perform trending analysis around major operating Total MMDA Investments - (30,000,000) - (30,000,000) (20,000,000) items (next page) to stress test the forecast Total Operational Cashflows (3,500,000) (2,300,000) (1,700,000) 3,200,000 1,100,000 Approx.