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Business Banking ROI Sectors Team Retail Convenience 2017 Review / 2018 Outlook Business Banking ROI Sectors Team Retail Convenience 2017 Review / 2018 Outlook The latest CSO Retail sales Index for 2017 (issued 5 January 2018) outlined continued growth in Irish retail sales with an annual increase in sales volume (excluding motor) of c. 7% v 2016 – this underpins a positive outlook for the sector in 2018. Retail Convenience: 2017 Review Summary Approval Activity Value % • Continued Growth: Continued positive trend in retail sales volume and value in 2017 v 2016 Approval Activity Value % – 2017 • Revamp Activity: Significant store revamp activity continued 3% across all brands with retailers aligning their offering to the Working Capital expectations of the discerning Irish consumer • Funding Activity: Strong pipeline of store purchase and 36% revamp proposals to continue in 2018 in conjunction with Revamp re-finance activity 31% Refinance • Competitive market: Competitive pricing and loyalty / partnership focused techniques will continue to be a feature of the grocery sector to maintain market share for leading 30% Freehold Purchase symbol groups. 2017 Key trends compared to • While strong price competition for market share between Approval Activity Value % – 2016 leading symbol brands continued to curb growth in total sales values, 2017 delivered positive growth in both volume 3% 1% (+c. 7%) and value (+c. 4%) of retail sales (excluding motor) Working Capital Greenfield • Dunnes, Supervalu and a resurgent Tesco continue to compete strongly for the no. 1 spot in grocery market share with Tesco 12% Revamp reporting a consistent return to sales growth in 2017 driven by a price focused strategy • Convenience retailers, in particular Spar and Centra, continue 49% to perform very strongly, reflecting improved consumer 35% Refinance sentiment and a requirement for convenient shopping solutions Freehold Purchase • The consumer continues to move from a larger trolley based shop to more frequent basket shops and is seeking accessible options from all leading brands (grocery, discounter and convenience brands) to meet their individual requirements Sector Developments – H2 2017 Key Numbers Sector Developments: Investment and • €5.5m: Value of trading deal agreed between Freshly Chopped consolidation & BWG announced in November 2017 • Anne Heffernan and Sharon McMahon, the daughter and • €400m: Investment made / indented by Lidl in it’s Irish network niece of CEO, Margaret Heffernan have been appointed to between 2016 and 2018 per JP Scally (MD of Lidl Ireland) the Dunnes Stores executive board of directors signalling • £21m: Purchase price paid by Applegreen for a portfolio of UK an increased involvement from the next generation of the sites in August 2017 family in the business • 500+: Number of Frank & Honest coffee outlets rolled out • The Joyce group led by Pat Joyce expanded their retail across Centra & Supervalu store network with accelerated footprint in Galway significantly, by acquiring four stores growth delivered in 2017 as part of a portfolio sale • 50: Number of new stores that Mace plans to open in ROI • Aldi opened new concept stores in Trim and Cobh with pre-2020 per an announcement in September 2017. both focusing strongly on their ‘Aldi Fresh’ proposition • Couche-Tard has announced that it will invest over €26m Key Activity in the Sector in 2017 across its Irish forecourt network in launching the ‘Circle K’ • Greater balance across customer funding requirements with retail and ‘Miles’ fuel brands revamp and freehold purchase proposals accounting • Supervalu and its independent retail partners opened new for 69% of approval activity in 2017 v 43% in 2016 stores in Dundalk, Bantry and Tower (Co. Cork) as well as • Strong revamp and freehold purchase activity expected delivering a significant revamp of its Castletownbere store to continue in 2018 in the latter half of 2017. • In relation to refinance activity, while volumes were down on 2016, it continued to be a significant feature of the sector in 2017. Bank of Ireland Information Classification: Green - Public Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Business Banking ROI Sectors Team Retail Convenience 2017 Review / 2018 Outlook Continued growth in sales volume, competitive pricing strategies employed by all leading grocery brands and extensive store revamp programmes forecast for 2018. Retail Convenience 2018 Outlook 2018 Key Numbers • Forecourt store category to remain extremely competitive with • €30m: Planned investment from Tesco in its new Liffey Valley Topaz / Circle K, Applegreen and Maxol competing with Spar store complex earmarked to open in summer 2018 and Centra forecourt retailers for the convenience / transient shopper. The food to go range, dine-in options and in-store • €9.55: Rate of Minimum wage in place from January 2018 coffee brand are now key differentiators for the Irish consumer • 150%: Growth in value terms of contactless card transactions in choosing a Forecourt store in 2017 v 2016 with continued growth in this payment channel • Brexit: All businesses should be utilising a bespoke Brexit expected in 2018 diagnostic tool to analyse potential Brexit exposure and to • 25/05: Date in May 2018 that GDPR legislation comes into mitigate same in an effective, proactive manner. force – pre-planning is required by all retailers to ensure compliance with data protection regulation. Funding Activity 2018 Retail Convenience Sector Outlook • Revamp activity to remain strong linked to a proactive revamp strategy from Supervalu, Centra, Eurospar, Spar, Londis, Mace • Grocery – Competitive and Costcutter brands • Convenience – Continued Positive Growth • Opportunities for leasehold retailers to purchase freehold title Market will continue in 2018 • Store sale activity primarily linked to succession planning will • Top line retail sales growth is projected in line with improved continue to develop in 2018 consumer spending power and sentiment • A level of refinance activity projected to continue linked to exiting • Succession planning will continue to be a key driver of activity banks and loan book purchasers seeking to deleverage. in 2018 as improved store values and trading environment act as a catalyst for same Bank of Ireland • The partnership model (‘Brand within a Brand’) will continue • Bank of Ireland is excited by the potential that this sector to grow as leading retailers incorporate multi-brand offerings presents in 2018. Our proven financial capabilities and in-store (Chopped, Subway, Insomnia, Frank & Honest, Urban appetite, combined with comprehensive sector expertise, Sips etc.) to meet the expectations / requirements of a wider provide us with a strong platform to meet the funding consumer cohort requirements of Irish retailers • Significant revamp programme to be rolled out nationwide by • We understand the investment cycle, including the need for Supervalu, Dunnes, Aldi, Lidl and leading convenience brands regular expenditure to maintain growth and profitability in this as the ever more discerning consumer seeks excellence in dynamic sector, and we have a strong appetite to support store standards progressive, innovative retailers in the further development • Potential legislative developments in the areas of rates, of their businesses in 2018. sugar-tax, minimum wage / ’Living wage’, structural separation (Public Health Alcohol Act) and inheritance tax / transfer of a business relief will be monitored with interest by retailers and their professional advisors Owen Clifford Email: [email protected] Head of Retail Convenience Mobile: 087 907 9002 Phone: 07662 42825 Owen joined Bank of Ireland in January 2015 as Head of Retail Convenience. Owen previously worked for Musgrave Retail Partners Ireland where his role involved supporting independent retailers to maximise their profitability and to develop long-term, sustainable Sources: CSO, Checkout business models. During this time, Owen developed significant knowledge of finance, magazine, Shelflife magazine, operations and legal / regulatory requirements specific to the retail convenience sector. Kantar Worldpanel, Owen holds a BA in Law and Accounting from the University of Limerick and is a Fellow of Retail Ireland, IBEC. the Institute of Chartered Accountants Ireland and an Associate of the Irish Taxation Institute and previously held roles with Pricewaterhouse Coopers and Deloitte. Lending criteria, terms and conditions apply. Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland..
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