Guildford Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014: FINAL REPORT Published 25th September 2015 Guildford Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 QA Guildford Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our Quality Manual requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator. The document must be treated as a draft unless it has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Partner. Date Originators Approved 25.09.15 Bláthnaid Duffy Dr Steven Norris Associate Partner Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of Carter Jonas LLP; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned. Final Report ii Guildford Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 AIM & SCOPE OF WORK 1 REPORT STRUCTURE 3 2.0 PLANNING POLICY CONTEXT 4 NATIONAL PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK (NPPF) 4 THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN 8 The Local Plan Saved Policies (2003) 8 The Draft Local Plan (2014) 9 Guildford Town Centre Vision 10 SUMMARY 11 3.0 RETAIL, TOWN CENTRE & LEISURE FUTURES 11 RETAIL TRENDS 12 Retail Expenditure 12 Retail Development 13 Internet Shopping 14 ‘Productivity’ Growth of Existing Retail Floorspace 15 Implications for Retail 16 COMMERCIAL LEISURE TRENDS 18 TOWN CENTRE TRENDS 19 Out-of-Centre Development 19 Town Centre Revitalisation Strategies 20 Town Centre Futures 22 4.0 STUDY AREA AND PATTERNS OF RETAIL AND LEISURE SPENDING 24 STUDY AREA 24 CATCHMENT POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD PROFILE 25 Baseline Population 26 Final Report iii Guildford Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 Mosaic Population Profile 26 PATTERNS OF RETAIL AND LEISURE SPENDING 28 Competing Centres 35 SUMMARY 37 5.0 GUILDFORD TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECK 38 GUILDFORD TOWN CENTRE 38 Town Centre Boundary and Shopping Frontages 39 Diversity of Uses 40 Retailer Representation 41 Vacant Units 42 Retailer Requirements 44 Commercial Indicators 45 Pedestrian Counts 46 Environmental Quality 46 Accessibility 46 Crime and Safety 47 Perception of Guildford Town Centre 47 Planned and Proposed Investment 49 SUMMARY 50 6.0 DISTRICT AND LOCAL CENTRES HEALTH CHECK AND OUT-OF-CENTRE RETAIL PROVISION 52 DISTRICT CENTRES 52 Station Parade, East Horsley 52 Wharf Road, Ash 53 LOCAL CENTRES 54 OUT OF CENTRE RETAIL PARKS AND STAND ALONE STORES 59 Retail Parks 59 Foodstores 59 SUMMARY 60 iv Final Report Guildford Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 7.0 ECONOMIC CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 61 CAPACITY APPROACH 61 ‘BASELINE’ ASSUMPTIONS & FORECASTS 62 Population and Household Projections 63 Expenditure Per Capita and Special Forms of Trading (SFT) 63 Expenditure Growth Forecasts 64 Total Available Expenditure 64 Market Share Analysis 65 ‘Inflow’ and Current Turnover Estimates 66 RETAIL COMMITMENTS 67 ’BASELINE’ CAPACITY: BOROUGH-WIDE FORECASTS 69 Convenience Goods ‘Baseline’ Capacity 70 Convenience Floorspace for Strategic Housing growth areas 73 Comparison Goods ‘Baseline’ Capacity 76 Potential Sites for New Retail Floorspace 77 SUMMARY 80 8.0 LEISURE ‘GAP’ ASSESSMENT 82 LEISURE EXPENDITURE GROWTH 82 CINEMA 84 EATING & DRINKING OUT 87 HEALTH & FITNESS NEED 92 BINGO & GAMBLING 95 TEN-PIN BOWLING 96 CULTURAL ACTIVITIES 97 SUMMARY 98 9.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 100 RETAIL CAPACITY ASSESSMENT 100 GUILDFORD TOWN CENTRE 101 Final Report v Guildford Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 DISTRICT CENTRES OVERVIEW 102 LOCAL CENTRES OVERVIEW 102 IMPACT ASSESSMENT - FLOORSPSPACE THRESHOLD 103 GLOSSARY & ABBREVIATIONS 106 APPENDIX 1: STUDY AREA & ZONES PLAN APPENDIX 2: TOWN, DISTRICT AND LOCAL CENTRES PLAN APPENDIX 3: FOODSTORE PROVISION PLAN APPENDIX 4: OUT-OF-CENTRE RETAIL PROVISION PLAN APPENDIX 5: HOUSHOLD SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE & RESULTS APPENDIX 6: RETAILER REQUIREMENTS APPENDIX 7: PEDESTRIAN COUNTS APPENDIX 8: CONVENIENCE GOODS MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS APPENDIX 9: COMPARISON GOODS MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS APPENDIX 10: CONVENIENCE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 11: COMPARISON CAPACITY ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 12: FOODSTORE CATCHMENT ANALYSIS PLAN APPENDIX 13: LEISURE NEEDS ASSESSMENT APPENDIX 14: LEISURE PROVISION PLAN vi Final Report Guildford Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Carter Jonas (CJ) (incorporating Strategic Perspectives) was commissioned by the Guildford Borough Council in 2014 to carry out a comprehensive update of the 2011 Guildford Retail & Leisure Study Update (2011 GRLSU). AIM & SCOPE OF WORK 1.2 The main aim of the study is to provide detailed information on the likely future need (‘capacity’) and demand for new retail floorspace over the development plan period (to 2033), and to assess the requirements for other town centre uses, specifically commercial leisure uses1. 1.3 Advice and recommendations are provided on future retail and leisure needs in existing centres; focusing on Guildford Town Centre, and the Borough’s two District Centres (Ash and East Horsley). The study also considers the need for retail and leisure uses to support the proposed planned housing in the draft Local Plan Strategy and Sites document, as well as the potential need for a new foodstore in the Borough. The study findings supersede the 2011 GRLSU. 1.4 By way of context, although Guildford town centre serves an important role as the largest centre in terms of retail floorspace in Surrey, it is facing strong competition from neighbouring centres where significant new retail and leisure developments are in the pipeline (Section 4). The Borough’s two district centres and the numerous smaller local centres also serve important functions and help to meet local everyday needs. 1.5 According to the most recent population forecasts2 published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the Borough’s population is expected to increase by 14% over the development plan period (2014-2033). This will place increased demand for services in the Borough’s main centres; particularly on retail and leisure provision. 1.6 Against this background, this study will provide the robust and up-to-date evidence needed by Guildford Borough Council to inform the preparation of its new Local Plan documents. This includes the draft Local Plan Strategy and Sites, which will define town centre boundaries and identify and allocate sites to meet any identified need for new retail, leisure and commercial development over the development plan period. 1.7 The study has been prepared in the context of current and emerging national and development plan policy guidance, as well as other key material considerations; principally the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2012. Where relevant the study also draws on advice set out in the National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG), published in March 2014. The NPPG still places significant weight on 1 In accordance with the Council’s Brief the main leisure uses considered are Class A3 (restaurants and cafés), Class A4 (Public houses, wine bars and other drinking establishments), Class A5 (Hot food take aways), and Class D2 (including cinemas, bingo halls, swimming baths and gymnasiums). It should be noted at the outset that this assessment does not cover residential and Class B1 employment uses, although account is taken of the existing evidence available for these uses. 2 2012-based Sub-National Population Projections released in May 2014 Final Report 1 Guildford Borough Council Retail and Leisure Study Update 2014 the development of positive plan-led visions and strategies to help ensure the vitality and viability of town centres first, and retains the key sequential and ‘impact tests’. 1.8 The study also draws on other evidence and research prepared for the Council; including Guildford’s Town Centre Vitality and Viability Report 2011 and 2013 (Draft), which presents data on the town, district and local centres in the Borough. The study also uses the Council’s survey data on town centre uses (2011 and 2013) for key centres (and Ladymead Retail Park) to inform the Town Centre Vitality and Viability Reports. Survey data for 2014 is used for district and local centre audits. 1.9 The assessment of the need for new (convenience and comparison goods) retail floorspace has been carried out at the strategic Borough-wide level. The study area covers a broad geographical area, which includes Guildford Borough and extends into neighbouring Local Authorities. This study area has been further divided into smaller zones that broadly reflect the influence and prime catchments of the Borough’s main centres. This report applies the study area and zones defined for the 2011 GRLSU Study as the baseline for the study area definition (see Appendix 1). This will enable comparisons of changes in shopping patterns (market shares) over time, as well as helping to identify the impact of new shopping and other town centre uses on market shares both within and outside the Borough. 1.10 The defined study area and zones also provide the framework for the new telephone interview survey of some 1,000 households conducted by NEMS Market Research in July 2014. This survey provides the most up-to-date evidence on shopping patterns, leisure preferences and expenditure flows within the Borough and wider study area. In turn, this has informed the centre health check updates, as well as the quantitative need