ASME Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification , 2016 Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to the Sandia Verification and Validation Challenge Problem Aniruddha Choudhary1 National Energy Technology Laboratory 3610 Collins Ferry Road, Morgantown, WV 26505
[email protected] ASME Member Ian T. Voyles Aerospace and Ocean Engineering Department, Virginia Tech 460 Old Turner Street, Blacksburg, VA 24061
[email protected] ASME Member Christopher J. Roy Aerospace and Ocean Engineering Department, Virginia Tech 460 Old Turner Street, Blacksburg, VA 24061
[email protected] ASME Member William L. Oberkampf W. L. Oberkampf Consulting 5112 Hidden Springs Trail, Georgetown, TX 78633
[email protected] ASME Member Mayuresh Patil Aerospace and Ocean Engineering Department, Virginia Tech 460 Old Turner Street, Blacksburg, VA 24061
[email protected] 1 Corresponding author 1 ASME Journal of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Abstract Our approach to the Sandia Verification and Validation Challenge Problem is to use probability bounds analysis based on probabilistic representation for aleatory uncertainties and interval representation for (most) epistemic uncertainties. The nondeterministic model predictions thus take the form of p-boxes, or bounding cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) that contain all possible families of CDFs that could exist within the uncertainty bounds. The scarcity of experimental data provides little support for treatment of all uncertain inputs as purely aleatory uncertainties and also precludes significant calibration of the models. We instead seek to estimate the model form uncertainty at conditions where experimental data are available, then extrapolate this uncertainty to conditions were no data exist. The Modified Area Validation Metric (MAVM) is employed to estimate the model form uncertainty which is important because the model involves significant simplifications (both geometric and physical nature) of the true system.