www.policymagazine.ca March—April 2021
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
A Pandemic Budget
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Learn more at SupportUNDRIP.ca CanadianIn ThisPolitics Issue and Pu2b lic FromPoli cythe Editor / L. Ian MacDonald A Pandemic Budget Canadian Politics and 3 Kevin Page, Donya Ashnaei and Elo Mamoh Public Policy Canada’s Debt Narrative, from Financial Crisis to Pandemic EDITOR AND PUBLISHER L. Ian MacDonald 6 Kevin Page, Donya Ashnaei and Elo Mamoh [email protected] Fiscal Policy: Relief, Recovery and Reset ASSOCIATE EDITOR Jeremy Leonard and Angel Talavera Lisa Van Dusen 9 [email protected] Letter from London: Avoiding Austerity II in the EU CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan Thomas S. Axworthy, 11 Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, The Great Budgetary Pivot: But to Where? James Baxter, Derek H. Burney, Shachi Kurl Catherine Cano, Stéphanie Chouinard, 16 Margaret Clarke, Rachel Curran, The Mood of Canada: People, the Pandemic and Politics Paul Deegan, John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt, Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, Helaina Gaspard, Canada and the World Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage, Frank Graves, 19 Jeremy Kinsman Jeremy Kinsman, Shachi Kurl, The Brexit Post-Mortem: Now What? Philippe Lagassé, Brad Lavigne, Jeremy Leonard, Kevin Lynch, Sarah Goldfeder Leslie MacKinnon, Peter Mansbridge, 22 Carissima Mathen, Elizabeth May, The Biden Agenda: Restoring World Leadership for Velma McColl, David McLaughlin, Prosperity and Stability David Mitchell, Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, Fen Osler-Hampson, Suzanne Fortier Kevin Page, Robin V. Sears, 24 Vianne Timmons, Brian Topp, Building Back Better, Together: Lessons from Virtual Davos Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt, Stéphanie Chouinard Anthony Wilson-Smith 27 Official Languages Reform: Failure is not an Option WEB DESIGN Nicolas Landry Lori Turnbull [email protected] 29 The Atlantic Bubble and Nova Scotia Politics SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR Grace MacDonald 31 Column / Don Newman [email protected] Lessons from the Pandemic GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Monica Thomas Book Reviews [email protected] 32 Review by Graham Fraser Policy Newspapering: 50 Years of Reporting from Canada and Around the World Policy is published six times annually by LPAC Ltd. The contents are Norman Webster copyrighted, but may be reproduced Review by Rosalie Silberman Abella with permission and attribution in 33 print, and viewed free of charge at the Eleanor Policy home page at policymagazine.ca. David Michaelis Price: $6.95 per issue Annual Subscription: $39.95 PRINTED AND DISTRIBUTED BY St. Joseph Communications, 1165 Kenaston Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf Lounges across Canada, as well as VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Now available on PressReader. Cover photo by Adam Scotti
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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald A Pandemic Budget elcome to our look ahead ard and Angel Talavera of Oxford Eco- This in a minority Parliament, with to A Pandemic Budget, our nomics offer their thoughts. the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc W cover package on the first Former Privy Council Clerk Kevin Québécois all hoping to win more federal budget in more than two Lynch and communications consul- seats off the Island of Montreal in the years, one that has been shaped by tant Paul Deegan write that “We are at next election. the unprecedented events and cir- war on two fronts—against a virulent Dalhousie University’s Lori Turn- cumstances arising from the corona- pathogen and against a pandemic-in- bull writes of a testing time within virus pandemic. duced recession—but not always on a the political Atlantic Bubble. Outgo- So, not just any budget, but as Finance war footing.” ing Nova Scotia Premier Stephen Mc- Neil allowed that he was tired of the Minister Chrystia Freeland put it, “the Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus job months before leaving on Febru- most significant one of our lifetimes.” Reid Institute, checks in with new ary 23, with Iain Rankin replacing The Spanish Flu pandemic following polling numbers reflecting how Ca- him as premier. Onward, sort of, in the First World War and the Great nadians feel about the government’s the pandemic. Depression are the only comparable handling of the vaccine rollout, and health and economic crises in our his- whether they blame the prime min- And columnist Don Newman looks at tory, and they didn’t occur simultane- ister for delays, in a Mood of Cana- the lessons from the pandemic for Ca- ously as this one has in the last year, da piece. nadian diplomacy, especially how Ot- leaving more than 22,000 dead (at this tawa might strike a balance between writing) Canadians in its wake in two n Canada and the World, former an intelligent China policy and secur- waves, with a dread that a third pan- Canadian high commissioner to ing the release of the two Michaels— demic surge may result from high- I the United Kingdom and former Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor— ly communicable variants. As for the ambassador to the European Union as diplomatic hostages of Beijing. economy, with millions of Canadians Jeremy Kinsman considers the ques- inally, in Book Reviews, we of- losing their jobs, entire industries shut tion of what’s next after Brexit for the fer two reviews of important ti- down, and provinces in varying de- UK and the EU. tles for the spring season. Con- grees of lockdown, the federal govern- In a world where turmoil is the new F tributing Writer Graham Fraser con- ment has faced two major issues. normal, the return of normal Amer- siders Norman Webster’s memoir of First, how much money to throw at ican leadership is a welcome devel- a lifetime in journalism, Newspaper- the problem, and second, how to ac- opment, writes former Foggy Bot- ing: 50 Years of Reporting from Can- quire and distribute enough vaccines tom official Sarah Goldfeder, now an ada and Around the World. As Fraser to meet the needs of Canadians. Ottawa-based policy consultant. As notes: “this wonderful collection cap- From his post as president of the In- Goldfeder writes of The Biden Agenda: tures the essence of Norman Webster: stitute of Fiscal Studies and Democ- “Rebuilding and buttressing alliances cheerful, well-informed, shrewd, hon- racy, the redoubtable Kevin Page and will be critical.” ourable—and highly competitive.” his University of Ottawa team—he’s McGill Principal Suzanne Forti- And Supreme Court Justice Rosalie joined by fourth-year economics stu- er checks in with her annual World Abella weighs in with an opinion on dents Donya Ashnaei and Elo Ma- Economic Forum dispatch, this year Eleanor, the David Michaelis bio of El- moh—offer their look ahead to Bud- a Letter from Virtual Davos, from her eanor Roosevelt. America’s First Lady get 2021 in two outstanding articles, own office in Montreal. in more ways than one, but equally one on debt sustainability and the With the much-awaited release of Ot- a champion in her own right of the other on flexible fiscal frameworks. tawa’s new working paper on updat- suffering and dispossessed, including With Canada and the US both at- ing the Official Languages Act, Stépha- the judge’s own family of Holocaust tempting to stimulate economic re- nie Chouinard looks at the emphasis survivors, who emigrated to Canada covery while maintaining debt with- on protecting and promoting French from post-war Germany not long af- in sustainable levels, the question is in the federal context, with Quebec ter their displaced persons camp was whether Europe is on the same page. on the verge of reinforcing Bill 101, visited by Eleanor. In a letter from London, Jeremy Leon- its Charter of the French Language. Enjoy.
Policy 3 3
Prime Minister Trudeau and Finance Minister Freeland in the PM’s West Block office during the Virtual Meeting with President Biden and his cabinet officials on February 23, where they discussed a bilateral agenda for a health and economic recovery from the pandemic. Adam Scotti photo Canada’s Debt Narrative, from Financial Crisis to Pandemic
When the public health crisis of a deadly global pandem- Kevin Page, Donya ic became an economic crisis in the absence of a vaccine, Ashnaei and Elo Mamoh the economic worst-case scenario was always going to be about debt. Vaccines were patented, but their econom- e live in unusual, uncer- ic relief has been thwarted by delivery disruptions and Wtain and unstable times. the emergence of viral variants. As former Parliamentary Equity markets are strong—under- pinned by expectations of vaccine Budget Officer Kevin Page and his co-authors write, the distribution and continued support next factor to watch in what has been a Murphy’s Law from central banks and government fable will be interest rates. treasuries. Credit markets are strong. Household and business credit con- tinue to grow—buoyed by low interest rates and easy access to money. Mean- while, the goods and service economy is hurting from the pandemic. Output remains well below levels a year ago. The unemployment rate is uncom- fortably close to 10 percent.
March—April 2021 4 How do you connect strong equity powers to facilitate a soft landing. The When central bankers and treasury and credit markets and a weak econo- music plays on until it stops. officials think about our policy path my? One way is through debt and the before and after COVID, it is likely Meanwhile, we are battling an epic expectations of more debt. Is this sus- they use terms like financial repres- war with mother nature; a novel tainable? No. sion and fiscal dominance. Sadly, the coronavirus that is killing people. In two come together. Will there be a soft or hard landing for this context, debt can save lives and economies when the music stops? The businesses while public health sys- music stops when central banks and tems struggle to give us immunity. Will there be a soft governments pull back on the purse Shutting down an economy is the or hard landing for strings—money growth and budget- price of preventing not overwhelm- ary deficits. The music stops when we ing our health care system. This is economies when the music lose faith and confidence. Global pol- good debt. It is cheap debt. Interest stops? The music stops when icymakers will do everything in their rates are low. central banks and governments pull back on Chart 1: Total Domestic Debt the purse strings—money growth and budgetary Debt (% GDP) deficits. 450
400
350 Pandemic inancial repression is a mone- 300 Pre 2020 – Q3 tary policy strategy that delib- Pandemic F erately keeps interest rates low— 250 Post 2019 – Q4 with a preference of interest rates be- Financial low the inflation rate. Low interest 200 Pre Financial Crisis rates encourage people to borrow, 2009 – Q3 150 Crisis which boosts economic growth. It can 2008 – Q3 encourage people to put money into 100 stocks to seek higher returns—good for equity markets. It can deflate away 50 the real value of outstanding debt. 0 Good for debtors, including govern- ments. It can also create nasty imbal- Source: Bank of Canada / Haver Analytics ances like spikes in housing prices and equity markets that are disconnected Chart 2: Household and Business Effective Interest Rates, 2008-2021 from economic fundamentals related to income. Effective Interest Rate (%) 7 Fiscal dominance happens when fis- cal policy dominates monetary pol- 6 icy. With central bank policy inter- est rates near zero in a low-inflation Pandemic 5 environment, we rely on fiscal poli- 2020 – Q3 Household Effective Interest Rate cy, specifically deficit finance, to help 4 stimulate the real economy. A natural 3 political bias toward budgetary defi- cits becomes a defended fiscal policy Business Effective Interest Rate 2 when interest rates are low. The nas- ty problem is that the future is uncer- 1 tain and interest rates can rise.
0 John Maynard Keynes said that if “If 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 I owe you a pound, I have a problem; -0 -0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja if I owe you a million, the problem is yours”. In a world of financial repres- Source: Bank of Canada / Haver Analytics sion and fiscal dominance, the prob-
Policy 5 lem is ours. Panic sets in when the political parties highlighted the gence of COVID-19. While govern- music stops. issue of the rising cost of living. ments are rushing to vaccinate, the This issue has been suspended virus is mutating. If COVID-19 stays during the pandemic with with us and we have ongoing eco- While COVID-19 is enormous monetary and deficit nomic stops and starts, prolonged a deflationary shock, financed fiscal supports. high unemployment will put great an excessive and ongoing pressure on all sectors of the econo- monetary and fiscal policy my in a high debt environment. he policy concerns of ever-in- expansion through the T creasing debt are twofold. recovery could increase One, higher debt creates vulnerabili- If COVID-19 stays inflationary pressures in the ty risks for economies. This is true for with us and we have years ahead. all sectors of the economy. The liter- ongoing economic stops and ature generated by international or- starts, prolonged high ganizations makes the case that high debt can amplify macroeconom- unemployment will put great ic and asset price shocks. Remem- pressure on all sectors of the ber the 2008 financial crisis. Balance e have been living in a economy in a high debt sheet recessions can be deep. Stock time of financial repres- environment. market and housing prices can fall sion and fiscal dominance W dramatically. Recoveries tend to be since the 2008 global financial crisis. slow and painful. There are four stylized facts. Two, a long look back at econom- 1) Domestic debt in Canada ic history indicates higher domes- (as elsewhere) is on the rise tic debt can increase inflation. While e live in unusual, uncertain (Chart 1). It has risen steadily COVID-19 is a deflationary shock, an and unstable times. Few since the 2008 financial excessive and ongoing monetary and will argue that debt gener- crisis. All domestic sectors are W fiscal policy expansion through the ated during the pandemic was any- contributing—households, recovery could increase inflationary thing but necessary. financial and non-financial pressures in the years ahead. Higher institutions and governments. price inflation (rising above 3 percent) In a post COVID-19 world, policy Every year we break modern would force central banks around the makers will search for the soft land- records. world to raise interest rates. A large ing. Debt instability risks are real and 2) Effective household and increase in the cost of debt servic- growing. While some fiscal stimulus business interest rates have ing would destabilize economies. We will be important to address a weak trended down (Chart 2). have a Catch-22 scenario. recovery, new policies to grow the Lower the price of something, The late American economist Hyman potential sustainable growth rate of we tend to want more. This is Minsky said the seeds of a crisis are the economy are essential. Canada is true of debt. sown in complacency. Panics are al- a rich country. We can build a green- 3) Carry costs of debt have been most always related to debt. Nassim er, more inclusive and resilient econ- reduced. Household debt service Taleb, an economist who has studied omy and stabilize our balance sheets. ratios (interest costs relative to risk and written books including The Will we have the political courage to disposable income) have fallen Black Swan and Antifragile, has com- make sacrifices through tax-paid in- in 2020 thanks to large federal pared risk to efforts to get ketchup vestments and protect fiscal space for transfers (deficit financed) and out of the bottle. Risk can land hard. the next generation? Can we break lower interest rates. Federal debt the addiction to debt? interest costs relative to GDP The fall 2020 survey of financial in- are at historic lows and have stitutions by the Bank of Canada in- Contributing Writer Kevin Page is been cut in half since the 2008 dicates a sharp increase in short and the Founding President and CEO financial crisis despite the more medium-term risks of a shock that of the Institute for Fiscal Studies than doubling of federal debt in could impair the financial system. and Democracy at the University of current dollars. Sectors most vulnerable to solvency Ottawa and was previously Canada’s 4) Insolvencies were rising risk include retail, accommodation first Parliamentary Budget Officer. modestly before the pandemic and food services, and real estate. Sce- Donya Ashnaei and Elo Mamoh are and have fallen during the narios posing the greatest concern to fourth year economics students at the pandemic. In the 2019 election, the financial system include a resur- University of Ottawa.
March—April 2021 6 Fiscal Policy: Relief, Recovery and Reset
In normal times, federal budget calculations based on y almost any benchmark, the finding a balance among the demands of the economy, the Canadian economy is weak. B Notwithstanding a rebound values of the government, the needs of constituencies and since the pandemic-induced econom- political timing. The context of the Trudeau government’s ic lockdown in the second quarter of 2020, real GDP is down 2.8 percent in 2021 budget has skewed those considerations by super- November 2020 on a year-over-year imposing the health and economic crisis of a deadly pan- basis, with declines in both the goods demic and the exigencies of a minority Parliament over and services sector. The unemploy- ment rate sits at 9.4 percent in Jan- them. Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy founder uary 2021. Prospects for the recovery and CEO Kevin Page and his co-authors break down the are largely tied to the evolution of the virus and our public health manage- budget juggle for an exceptional year. ment. In a world of low interest rates and significant post-pandemic eco- nomic scarring, fiscal policy will be used to support a return to potential Kevin Page, Donya “Humankind is now facing a output and full employment. Ashnaei and Elo Mamoh global crisis. Perhaps the biggest crisis of our generation. The decisions people and governments inance Minister Chrystia Free- Relief must continue take will probably shape the world land launched pre-budget con- as infections spread, for years to come. They will shape F sultations in mid-January with not just our health care systems new variants develop and the the comment that Budget 2021“Will but also our economy, politics and vaccination process rolls out. be the most significant one of our life- culture. When choosing between The government’s recent times.” It is a bold and unusual move alternatives, we should ask proposed extension for the for public finance officials to raise ourselves not only how to overcome expectations in an environment of Canada Recovery Benefit is the immediate threat, but also economic hardship, fear and uncer- what kind of world we will inhabit such an example. tainty. What will be the role of fiscal once the storm passes.” policy, the purview of the Finance Minister, to meet this unprecedent- The stakes for Budget 2021 are high. ed moment? Fiscal policy must chart a path for re- lief, recovery and reset. Many share a feeling that we are liv- The pandemic reminded us of the ing in consequential times. In this Governments have used econom- power of mother nature and the regard, Budget 2021 will be import- ic lockdowns and social distancing importance of science in address- ant, whether it succeeds or fails to measures to reduce COVID-19 infec- ing public policy challenges. Cli- bring about policy changes to pro- tions and deaths. Fiscal policy has mate change scientists tell us that mote a post-pandemic recovery. Of been used to support households the next few decades will be critical course, we want global solutions to and businesses during the pandem- in addressing the problems of glob- global challenges. We want Canada ic. Relief must continue as infections al warming. Fiscal policy must be to succeed. spread, new variants develop and the used to finance the shift to a green- vaccination process rolls out. The er economy in a way that promotes The Israeli historian Yuval Harari government’s recent proposed exten- economic adjustment, inclusion and framed our collective circumstances sion for the Canada Recovery Benefit resilience and protects fiscal sover- in frank language: is such an example. eignty for future generations.
Policy 7 Freeland faces a number of challeng- choices and trade-offs and protect fis- Budget constraints are needed on es in crafting a fiscal policy strategy cal room for future generations. recovery and policy resets. Minister that guides our country from pan- Freeland provided creative foresight Roger Martin, the former dean of the demic relief to recovery to reset. The in the 2020 Fall Economic Statement Rotman Business School at the Uni- government will be judged on how by outlining a range of possible eco- versity of Toronto, said that strategy they address these challenges. nomic scenarios in the midst of high is the “process of thinking through uncertainty and signaling the use One, the challenge of building confi- what it would take to achieve what of labour market indicators (em- dence and trust. It will be Freeland’s you want and then assessing whether ployment and hours worked) as fis- first budget. It will be the first federal it’s realistic to try… it should be out- cal guardrails to shape the size and budget in two years—a record period side the comfort zone … true strate- profile of fiscal stimulus (see Chart 1 of time to go without a budget. gy is about placing bets and making and Table 1). hard choices. The objective is not Two, the challenge of policy change. to eliminate risk but to increase the The budget must lay the fiscal plan- odds of success.” ning framework for complex and The current Liberal structural changes to public infra- n fiscal policy, the Liberal government does structure to reduce carbon emissions government must now move not have strong bona fides and to our socio-economic systems outside their comfort zone. to promote opportunity and adjust- O in fiscal policy. They have ment and reduce disparity. Fiscal supports for COVID relief will largely managed without continue without hard budget con- Three, the challenge of cooperation. real budgetary constraints straints. In this environment the gov- The federal government must build that drive policy choices ernment must promote transparen- policy and governance bridges with and trade-offs and protect cy. Where has the money gone? What the international community, oth- impact has it had? How will the gov- fiscal room for future er levels of government, and our First ernment address any misuse of public Nations people. You cannot solve generations. funding through audits? To promote global problems without cooperation. transparency while the government Four, the challenge of fiscal strategy continues to flow relief supports, it and management. The current Liber- could launch a website such as the us- al government does not have strong aspending.gove site, which makes it bona fides in fiscal policy. They have easy for legislators and citizens to get Canada can learn from the experi- largely managed without real bud- timely and accessible data on federal ence of the European Union on the getary constraints that drive policy COVID relief spending in America. analysis and reporting of fiscal rules. The International Monetary Fund’s latest mission report on Canada pro- Chart 1: Fiscal Guard Rails—Employment and Hours Worked vided both support for the approach to tie stimulus to fiscal rules and the 690000 19750 need for clarity and transparency in the upcoming budget to ensure the 19250 fiscal stance is consistent with the cy- 640000 clical evolution of the economy. 18750 Actual Hours Worked: All Sectors Timely, targeted and temporary 18250 590000 should be the three principles for fis- 17750 cal stimulus for the post-COVID re- covery. These principles were ef- 540000 17250 fective in Canada’s response to the Employment (x1,000) Hours Worked (x1,000) Employment 2008 global financial crisis. Targets 16750 490000 for spending should promote high 16250 economic (multiplier) impact and should facilitate adjustment for in- 440000 15750 1 dividuals and sectors that were badly -2 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 n -0 -0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 wounded by the pandemic. The first Ja an an an an an an an an an an an an an an J J J J J J J J J J J J J J public finance objective of stimulus is to close an output gap. The sec- Source: Statistics Canada / Haver Analytics ond objective is to ensure spending
March—April 2021 8
Table 1: Fiscal Scenarios, Stimulus and Budgetary Deficits $billions 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 Budgetary balance including second wave impact -398.7 -136.7 -59.6 -51.7 SCENARIO 1 Stimulus -20 -40 -10 Budgetary Balance -398.7 -156.7 -99.6 -61.7 Federal debt (% of GDP) 51.4 56 57.3 57.3 SCENARIO 2 Stimulus -25 -30 -15 Budgetary Balance -398.7 -156.7 -89.6 -61.7 Federal debt (% of GDP) 51.4 56.2 57.2 57.3 SCENARIO 3 Stimulus -20 -50 -30 Budgetary Balance -398.7 -156.7 -109.6 -81.7 Federal debt (% of GDP) 51.4 56 57.7 58.5 SCENARIO 4 Stimulus -30 -50 -20 Budgetary Balance -398.7 -166.7 -109.6 -71.7 Federal debt (% of GDP) 51.4 56.4 58.1 58.5
Source: Finance, 2020 Fall Economic Statement
is consistent with long-term needs of pects for lower interest rates, and the (e.g., a 150-basis point average in- the economy—a more green, inclu- similar relative shift to higher debt in crease) would be enough to put fed- sive and resilient economy. other advanced economies to address eral debt-to-income on an unsustain- the pandemic. Bond rating agencies, able path. The government should To the extent that Budget 2021 lays however, will argue that the quid commit to the publication of annual out a longer-term policy vision for pro quo for living with higher debt fiscal sustainability reports. the country, it must set out a me- should be stronger restraints. dium-term fiscal anchor. This fiscal Fiscal targets for annual budgetary anchor could be expressed as a lev- Those restraints could include oper- balances and possibly for the carry- el of debt relative to income that it ation rules on spending growth. In ing cost of debt (interest charges to believes will balance the need for fi- a post-COVID economy that has re- budgetary revenues or GDP) will help turned to trend levels of output and nancing policy transformation; pro- ensure that the glide path of the fis- mote a healthy fiscal stance with re- full employment, it would not be pru- cal anchor is on track. To strength- spect to cyclical economic growth dent to finance new socio-econom- en confidence and transparency, the (neither too stimulative nor restric- ic programs (current consumption Parliamentary Budget Office can be tive); and ensure a long-term sustain- spending) with deficit finance (e.g., given a formal role to increase anal- able debt-to-income ratio for the fed- early child development). These pro- ysis and parliamentary discourse on eral government with due regard to grams should be financed by higher
the sustainability of other levels of revenues to ensure long-term fiscal the fiscal stance of the country. government in Canada. sustainability, as has been highlight- Contributing Writer Kevin Page is ed by many Canadian institutions in- new fiscal debt-to-GDP an- the Founding President and CEO cluding C.D. Howe and the Confer- chor for Canada will inevita- of the Institute for Fiscal Studies ence Board of Canada. A bly be at a much higher lev- and Democracy at the University of el than existed in a pre-pandemic en- IFSD analysis indicates that the cur- Ottawa and was previously Canada’s vironment—likely 20 to 25 percent- rent federal fiscal structure is very first Parliamentary Budget Officer. age points higher (from 30 to 50-55 close to losing its fiscally sustainable Donya Ashnaei and Elo Mamoh are percent). Some argue with merit that status. A modest increase in interest fourth year economics students at the this is not a problem given the pros- rates over the current assumptions University of Ottawa.
Policy 9 Letter from London: Avoiding Austerity II in the EU
With Canada, the United States and other economies tional governments show that fiscal policymakers don’t intend on tight- attempting to stimulate economic recovery while main- ening prematurely, avoiding the er- taining debt within sustainable levels, is the European rors of the sovereign debt crisis. Fur- Union on the same page with its 27 member countries? thermore, governments have not hesitated to expand and extend the It’s about fiscal frameworks, striking the right balance myriad pandemic support programs and applying the lessons of recent history. From London, in response to the resurgence of the Jeremy Leonard and Angel Talavera of Oxford Economics virus late last year. provide insight. Fiscal hawks might Jeremy Leonard sis a decade ago, ultimately resulting fret about sky-high and Angel Talavera in slower economic growth in the debt levels when pushing countries that embraced it, which for a quicker dialing back undermined the recovery and wors- ust as the fiscal wounds inflict- ened the fiscal outlook. of fiscal stimulus, but the ed by the 2008-09 global finan- fact of the matter is that J cial crisis—and the European sov- Thankfully, it appears that the fis- the eurozone isn’t on the ereign debt crisis that it triggered— cal lessons of the sovereign debt cri- had essentially healed, the coronavi- sis have been learned, as the focus of brink of another sovereign rus pandemic blew an even larger hole policy makers remains squarely on debt crisis. in European public finances. The total economic growth and recovery. Bud- cost of the subsequent raft of furlough get plans submitted by European na- schemes, business grants, loan guar- antees and other national and pan-EU fiscal support programs began to be Chart 1: Eurozone: Government Debt Service Cost measured in trillions rather than bil- lions of euros even as tax revenue stag- % of GDP nated, and government deficits in eu- 4 rozone countries reached 7½ percent of GDP last year, driving public debt 3.5 Forecast to above 100 percent of GDP, forecast 3 at this writing. With lockdowns per- sisting into 2021 and vaccine rollout 2.5 stalled relative to the US and Canada, there’s a risk that the fiscal position 2 January 2020 baseline isn’t likely to improve much this year. 1.5 Amid such big numbers, one might 1 February 2021 baseline expect EU policy makers to set their sights on the tempting, but ulti- 0.5 mately self-defeating, debt reduc- tion “solution” of austerity once the 0 economic recovery gets underway in 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 earnest. That playbook guided the response to the global financial cri- Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics
March—April 2021
20 0 a 10 Chart 2: Germany: Fiscal balance and Public Debt into force in 2013 to pre-empt a fu- ture debt crisis such as the one that % GDP otential GDP had just imperilled Greece’s eurozone 25 0 membership—and made “Grexit” a word before “Brexit” was—are high- Forecast 20 80 ly complex. Broadly speaking, they prescribe roughly balanced budgets Public Debt (RHS) 70 in normal times with tougher targets 15 for countries with higher public debt 60 levels. While Germany may be able to 10 comply with the rules again in 2022, other countries with higher debt bur- 50 dens will find it challenging to revert 5 to the EU fiscal rules. But if they suc- 40 ceeded, the bloc would face a poten- 0 tial repeat of the austerity mistakes 30 following the global financial crisis. To avoid this, a change of the EU fis- -5 20 cal rules would make sense especial- Structural alance Cyclical alance ly against the backdrop of low inter- -10 Fiscal alance 10 est rates.
-15 0 1 5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Debt servicing as a share of GDP has Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics halved over the last two Fiscal hawks might fret about sky- eurozone as a whole would remain decades and we forecast it to high% of debt GDP levels when pushing for a roughly constant at its current rate remain much lower than over quicker4 dialing back of fiscal stimu- of 1.6 percent for the indefinite fu- the last decade. Even under a lus, but the fact of the matter is that ture. The reason for this is that the scenario of increasing long- the3.5 eurozone isn’t on the brink of effective interest rate on government another sovereign debt crisis. The debt is expected to remain at or be- term interest rates, debt 3 fiscal burden from additional stimu- low anuarythe rate 2020 of nominal baseline GDP growth levels look sustainable into lus2.5 amid a second wave looks man- underFebruary plausible 2021 assumptions. baseline the foreseeable future. ageable and we think concerns over Also, a rise in interest rates now debt2 sustainability are overblown. would still take years to fully trans- 1.5 late into a higher cost of debt, as far more relevant barometer most countries typically finance 1 of debt sustainability is the public debt at long maturities. This cost of servicing it, as it ac- Of course, debt cannot grow in- A mathematically means that the debt- counts0.5 for the level of interest rates. definitely, but in the context of to-GDP ratio can decline even in the Debt servicing as a share of GDP has rock-bottom interest rates and con- 0 context of small annual deficits, and halved over the last two decades and tinuing need for policy support amid 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020it’s encouraging2025 2030 that Germany2035 is ex- we forecast it to remain much lower an uncertain recovery from the coro- pected to maintain modest fiscal than over the last decade. navirus pandemic, there is no need stimulus over the next few years, in to rush in reducing its size. Even under a scenario of increasing sharp contrast to the period follow- long-term interest rates, debt levels ing the global financial crisis. Jeremy Leonard and Angel Talavera are look sustainable into the foreseeable respectively Director of Global Industry future. Even if 10-year bond yields ven though it is economically Services and Head of European were to return to their pre-financial defensible (and advisable) to Economics at Oxford Economics, crisis level (due to, for example, a E maintain a relatively loose fis- a global economic forecasting and sharp increase in term premia akin cal policy over the next couple of advisory firm based in London. to what happened following the years, EU fiscal rules could present a Leonard previously served as a research global financial crisis), we find debt complication. These provisions of the director at the Montreal-based Institute service cost as a share of GDP for the EU Fiscal Stability Treaty that came for Research on Public Policy.
Policy 20 0 a 11
11
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the two central figures in Ottawa’s first budget in two years—the buck stops with them. Adam Scotti photo The Great Budgetary Pivot: But to Where?
It has been a long two years since Ottawa’s last budget in Kevin Lynch March 2019, before the Liberals were reduced to a minori- and Paul Deegan ty government in the fall 2019 election, and a year before hat a difference a year COVID-19 struck in early 2020 with devastating conse- makes. We are living with W unprecedented econom- quences all round. “Health and economics are uniquely ic uncertainty and personal insecuri- intertwined in this crisis, and they will be equally so in ty that harken back to the Great De- the recovery,” write Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan, ex- pression of the 1930s. The deadly, global pandemic was the dominant panding an earlier analysis in the Globe and Mail, and health, political and economic story offering some thoughts on a way ahead. “The key,” they in 2020, and continues to be in 2021. conclude, “is political will and public support.” Indeed, its aftermath will affect fu- ture generations.
Today, we are at war on two fronts— against a virulent pathogen and against a pandemic-induced reces-
March—April 2021 12 sion—but not always on a war foot- ing. Canada’s early efforts to contain The last Budget was delivered to Canadians in the virus deserve a passing grade. March 2019, projecting a deficit of just under $20 But our capabilities to test rapidly, billion–a too-long gap for what is the annual public to contact trace effectively, to ac- blueprint of the state of the nation and its finances. quire and distribute vaccines reli- ably, and to actually vaccinate Cana- dians at scale and with urgency, get a failing grade. Health and econom- ics are uniquely intertwined in this crisis, and they will be equally so in the recovery. was a vigorous debate between those Fiscal limits are needed now to force who argued for fiscal consolidation governments to make tough but nec- In the economic battle to contain to rebuild resiliency and those who essary spending and revenue choic- the liquidity shock from the sud- advocated for sustained stimulus to es. But more than this, the govern- den and deep recession, the feder- reduce excess capacity. Just as then, ment has to set out a credible path to al government deserves good marks it is never a simple either-or choice— longer term fiscal sustainability, one for rolling out massive temporary in- governments can neither cut their that rebuilds our resiliency for the come supports quickly. But, while way to growth, nor spend their way inevitable future shocks. the perfect is the enemy of the good, to prosperity through unconstrained more attention to the designs of the The C.D. Howe Institute’s Fiscal and deficit spending. programs would surely have avoided Tax Working Group has provided the moral hazard of excessive insur- timely advice on the politically dif- ance—government support replaced Sustainable fiscal ficult but necessary politically choic- more, much more, than 100 percent management will be es the budget must address. They ad- of lost household income during crucial to our success in vocated four principles for any new the 2020 recession. Further, the last permanent spending: Budget was delivered to Canadians increasing public and private • If this spending is not financed in March 2019, projecting a deficit investment, improving with savings from a review of of just under $20 billion–a too-long productivity and existing programs, the majority gap for what is the annual public competitiveness, and should be met with increased blueprint of the state of the nation anchoring business and tax revenues. and its finances. consumer confidence. • To the extent new sources of The 2021 federal budget provides revenue are required to fund an opportunity to begin the pivot permanent new spending, their from reacting to a two-pronged crisis design should do as little harm to planning for sustained econom- to investment and growth ic growth in the post-pandemic era, as possible, they should be which will take time; targeted pub- predictable and reliable, and they lic and private investments in skills, Sustainable fiscal management will should be as broad-based digital technologies, and infrastruc- be crucial to our success in increas- as possible. ture; more agile regulation that eases ing public and private investment, doing business, and an innovation They noted that reversing the two improving productivity and com- mindset. percentage points cuts to the GST by petitiveness, and anchoring business the Harper government, combined The timing and vigour of the recov- and consumer confidence. It has a with a 40 percent increase in the GST ery depends almost solely on a novel number of essential elements. tax credit, would raise nearly $15 bil- fiscal instrument: vaccinations. The lion annually—a sizeable contribu- slower governments are to vaccinate First, we need to set a clear, credible tion towards fiscal sustainability. Canadians—and the track record to fiscal anchor to earn the confidence date is anything but encouraging— of rating agencies and impose bud- Near zero interest rates make new the more delayed will be the recov- get discipline within government. A spending fiscally affordable only as ery and the greater the attendant fiscal anchor cannot wait for better long as they stay low, and this is a health consequences. days, and its absence is a flashing red big risk to the fiscal framework going light to international investors who forward as it ties our fiscal future to decade ago, as Canada and oth- do not have to hold Canadian dollar the bold assumption that inflation er countries emerged from the assets in their global portfolios. We will not rebound and interest rates A global financial crisis, there are not a reserve currency. will remain at record low levels.
Policy 13 Second, we need a debt management participation in the work force. And undamentally, just as after the strategy that significantly shifts the technology is key to meeting our cli- Second World War, strong mix of federal borrowing from short- mate change objectives. F growth will be key to tackling er term maturities to longer term the pandemic debt legacy. Govern- But the tough challenge is the bonds to lock in today’s ultra-low in- ments cannot solve all problems, but need for the government to do less terest rates, which will not last forev- they can help create the conditions of something in order to do more er. Those who argue that the massive to make the private sector more suc- investing. increase in debt this year is afford- cessful. We are at one of those pivotal able because interest rates are so low The fifth element is to start tackling moments, and this is a pivotal bud- should also argue in favour of shift- Canada’s other deficit, the one that get. It’s an opportunity to begin re- ing as much of the new debt as pos- few are talking about: the current ac- building the Canada brand as an at- sible to very long-term bonds. count deficit. Our declining compet- tractive location for investment and itiveness in recent years, exacerbat- doing business. It’s an opportunity Third, as the economy recovers and ed by weakness in energy prices, has to begin the pivot towards strong, unemployment declines, we need meant a substantial and persistent sustained, long-term economic to stop the extraordinary levels of current account deficit. growth. It’s an opportunity for gov- spending on the temporary emer- ernment policy to be the recovery’s gency support programs. Today, the We have to get more firms taking resilient disruptor, rather than per- block to recovery is not demand or advantage of our trade agreements petually pandemic-disrupted. income—household savings are at with the United States and Mexico, record levels thanks to government with Europe, and with the Trans-Pa- The key is political will and public support payments—it is supply con- cific Partnership countries. Despite a support – putting short term politics straints due to COVID-imposed lock- relatively low dollar, we are racking and pain aside for long-term pub- downs of businesses. Temporary sup- up large trade deficits with our ma- lic gain. As Winston Churchill once port programs have to be just that, jor trading partners, including the noted, “It’s not enough that we do temporary—Canada’s fiscal credibil- US and China, and this is increas- our best; sometimes we have to do ity and sustainability depend on it. ing our foreign indebtedness just as what’s required.” we are rapidly accelerating domestic government and private sector debt. Governments in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s made tough fiscal and Temporary support And the sixth element is a combi- policy choices in very challenging programs have to be nation of humility and agility in circumstances. Let’s hope Prime just that, temporary— the face of uncertainty about how Minister Trudeau and Chrystia Free- COVID-19 will reshape the world. In land follow this approach of sustain- Canada’s fiscal credibility addition to how long the virus and its able fiscal management and avoid and sustainability depend variants remain a global threat, Mar- short-termism that passes the buck— on it. tin Wolf of the Financial Times has and the risks of a massive debt hang- set out a daunting list of five known over with sharply lessened resilien- unknowns facing political, policy cy—to the next generation. and business leaders in the coming years: acceleration of technology us- Kevin Lynch is former Deputy Minister age in everyday life and work; rising of Finance and former Clerk of the inequality and its economic and po- Privy Council. And fourth, we need to switch litical impacts; huge increase in the Paul Deegan is CEO of Deegan Public more of government expenditure indebtedness of governments, firms Strategies and former Deputy Executive towards investment spending to and households; deglobalization Director of the National Economic rebuild our long-term growth po- with pressures to near-shore and re- Council, The White House. tential, which is the only way to shore global supply chains; and, po- litical tensions, both attacks on lib- manage the mountain of debt we eral democracy in countries like the are accumulating. We need more United States and others, and wors- public investments in physical and ening geopolitics, particularly be- digital infrastructure, in education, tween the United States and China. in innovation, and in border fluid- ity. They all raise productivity and Canada and its governments have to growth. We also need pro-growth have the policy capacity, resources policies and investments to increase and flexibility to respond pro-active- labour force growth through high- ly—not reactively—in this dynamic er immigration and greater female and uncertain environment.
March—April 2021 From the beginning of my time as National Chief, I have made a priority of closing the gap in quality of life facing our people. This gap amplifies every threat and every harm from this pandemic, from the risk of infection to the stress of lockdown.
ap en e our peop e acce to ua t ea t care.
ap orce am e to e n o ercro e un ea t ome .
ap mean t at t e mp e t e er a act o turn n on t e tap to a our an t en e to ar too man o our peop e.
ap ma e t o t at e en en our peop e can et acce to ecent o t e are t t e a t re an t e r t re .
ap et een r t Nat on an a ot er peop e n ana a a r t t at ot eep an e. It a een car e eca e an centur e o rac m cr m nat on an n erence.
n t ere a r a er rea r anot er pan em c e ID can eep t rou t at c anne e a ra n oo an ma e t e en eeper an e en er t an e ore.
And that’s why it is so important that we finally close the gap.
Nat ona e Perr e e ar e In a peec to t e em o r t Nat on on Decem er REBUILDING EFFECTIVELY MEANS CLOSING THE GAP e era u et Pr or t e
From the beginning of my time as National Chief, I have made a priority of closing the gap in quality of life facing our people. This gap amplifies every threat and every harm from this pandemic, EDUCATION ECONOMY INFRASTRUCTURE HEALTH AND CONNECTIVITY from the risk of infection to the stress of lockdown. Support or r t Nat on Rene ocu on pr or t e In e t n reater upport or an po t econ ar et out n Closing the Gap In e tment n c ean r n n r t Nat on menta ea t e ucat on an Honouring Promisses ater an an tat on or a Increa e ea t upport to urt er n e tment Re tart t e econom r t Nat on re pon to an re oun rom ap en e our peop e acce to ua t ea t care. n rtua earn n t rou n e tment n u ne ua t ID n ra tructure r t Nat on o an u ta na e ou n an procurement mp a e pre ent on an e m nate o ercro n ear acce to ea t care ap orce am e to e n o ercro e un ea t ome . pan roa an n ra tructure or r t Nat on ap mean t at t e mp e t e er a act o turn n on t e tap to a our an t en e to ar too man o our peop e.
ap ma e t o t at e en en our peop e can et acce to ecent o t e are t t e a t re an t e r t re . ENVIRONMENT AND EQUITABLE POLICING ap et een r t Nat on an a ot er peop e n ana a a CLIMATE ACTION FUNDING AND JUSTICE r t t at ot eep an e. It a een car e eca e an In e t n reen n ra tructure a part o Increa e an Support un n ta r t Nat on re torat e r t Nat on o creat on u t ce tem e nn n t eep prom e e ca ator n t e ommun t Sa et In ra tructure centur e o rac m cr m nat on an n erence. ran t on r t Nat on to more Ne ca Re at on p ran er u ta na e econom c mo e a eta e n u et Re e ta t e La omm on o ana a n t ere a r a er rea r anot er pan em c e ncoura e r t Nat on to ta e ea er p In e t n mpro e nanc a on pre er n our natura or a m n trat e an po t ca Imp ement t e I na ID can eep t rou t at c anne e a ra n oo an o ernance Report a to u t ce nc u n o m t ate an a apt to e ect o Nat ona ct on P an ma e t e en eeper an e en er t an e ore. c mate c an e u an tream ne n t tut on to upport more e c ent an r t Nat ona r t Impact P ann n e ect e ca re at on p And that’s why it is so important that we finally close the gap. ta a nat ona reat reen In ra tructure omm on ean ner Support nternat ona o er t comm tment r t Nat on e Nat ona oo Nat ona e Perr e e ar e Secur t So ere nt Strate In a peec to t e em o r t Nat on ana an n ronmenta on Decem er Protect on ct re orm
…a national estimate of $27.67 billion is the amount by which Canada’s GDP can be expected to ncrea e a a re u t o c o n t e econom c ap et een In enou peop e an t e non In enou Learn more at AFN.ca population. This is about a 1.5% boost in the country’s GDP.
Pa e ttp .nae cn ea.com report nae report reconc at on on.p 16 The Mood of Canada: People, the Pandemic and Politics
Most competence issues that can put a government in polit- Reid Institute study last fall com- pared indexed data regarding self-de- ical peril have to do with logistical problems such as snow scribed levels of loneliness and isola- clearing, public transportation or natural disaster manage- tion from 2019 and 2020. The results ment. For the past year, the competence stakes have been confirmed what anecdotally seemed obvious. Canadians are less connect- raised by a pandemic that has killed more than 20,000 ed, and more bereft than ever. Canadians, that only mass vaccinations can end and for Further, people in this country are which the federal government is dependent on Big Phar- under little illusion about the road ma, among other players, for that solution. But Canadians ahead. A new year is traditional- have been taking out their fatigue, and frustration, on the ly supposed to bring new hope, but at the beginning of February, while prime minister who has become the face of the response. Canadians projected the coming 12 months would indeed be better for them than the 12 months past, they Shachi Kurl canvassed and chronicled. Years from nonetheless viewed the next year so- now, we will have the available data berly. Nearly half expect 2021 to be emember, at the dawn of the and intellectual distance to under- a “tough” year personally, more than COVID-19 lockdown, when stand what worked and what did not. twice the number who projected it R the denizens of Pinterest told would be “good” or “great”. us we needed to have a “pandemic But there are things policymakers can Still, we have dreams of what we’ll do project” for the “two weeks” we were neither fix nor mitigate: the pandem- in a post-pandemic reality. At the top going “on break”? I’d like to stick a ic’s impacts on the psyche, the heart. pin in them instead. We have a limited window on what a of the list? Just living stress-free, hug- year of uncertainty and isolation has ging loved ones, shaking hands, and Twelve months into what has been done to our collective soul. An Angus the chance to travel abroad again. the most significant event since the Second World War to so broadly af- fect the lives of Canadians, novelty has been replaced with fatigue, anx- la i a l li i 201 2020 iety and yes, hope, as we find our- selves not only in the thick of the 33% 31% pandemic but also on its downslope. 2 %
To understand where Canadians are 23% 22% in the spring of 2021, we must better 20% understand where we have been. This 15% informs our personal mindsets, how 12% we view pandemic management, and 10% the ways in which these influence the 6% calculus of federal politics.
People COVID-19’s impact on econom- he Desolate onely but not Isolated but not Moderately he Cherished isolated lonely Connected ic growth, unemployment, deficit spending, and the financial prospects 201 (n 2 055) 2020 (n 1 845) of individual Canadians has been well Source: Angus Reid Institute
Policy 47% 44% 36% 2 % 2 % 23% 20% 14%
Dec 8-11 an 20-24 Feb 10-11
Canada has done a ood ob in securin sufficient doses for Canadians Canada has done a oor ob in securin sufficient doses for Canadians Not really sure Can t say
Return-to-normal not expected by most until at least next fall, if ever 17 Pandemic Management December 22, 2020 – For many Ac i i i a a ia ar l i r ar h Canadians, the answer to a common Of course, planning one’s next vaca- h pa ic pa question in December carries an tion or showering grandma with kiss- unusual answer. What are you doing (All respondents, n=1,603) es requires an end to the tragic daily New Years Eve? Waiting for next year. toll of new infections, hospitalizations Doin re ular thin s in the community and deaths. And we have very little For many, this holiday season – with without stress 44% doubt about what will bring an end to parties cancelled and traditions put off – all this: vaccinations. In late January, is an obstacle to overcome. Now, nePhysicalw contact 43% a majority told the Institute being vac- data from the non-pr u in ofit Ang eo le sha in us Reid hands etc. cinated was the only thing that would Institute finds people from coast-to- end the pandemic for then or those in coast hoping fervently for a new era their household. In 2021, “pandem- when neighbours and commu ravellin nities are internationally 42% ic management” at the federal level safely vaccinated, and (almost) means finding vials of the stuff that everyone regains a life that looks more like it used to. Dinin in at restaurants 32% will save us from getting sick. Little wonder then, that the Trudeau Gettin to ether with older eo le Three things that Canadians are government has been under so much looking forward to most: being abI lhaven te to been able to 24% pressure to deliver on those precious go about their day-to-day routine doses. Let’s be real though: political- without worrying about the virus (44% ravellin around Canada look forward to this), being able to 20% ly speaking, the prime minister may resume the hugs, pecks on the cheek well have done this to himself. A De- and handshakes that come with cember announcement that this na- Goin to concerts 13% physical contact (43%), and tion would be among the first coun- international travel (42%). tries to receive vaccines, combined with previous announcements that Goin to the ym fitness classes 11% we had ordered and secured signifi- More Key Findings: cant amounts, set up expectations
Goin to movies theatre 11% that our federal government was es- British Columbians are most pecially on the ball. Little wonder likely to look forward to hugging then, that in early December, nearly their loved ones (51%) while Goin to arties 11% 60 percent of Canadians were express- Quebec leads the nation in ing confidence in Ottawa to effective- wanting to go out for dinner ly manage vaccine distribution. (45%) and go to aGoin party to(19 live%) s ortin . events 10%
Manitoba residents are most By mid-February, exciteSource:d to g Anguset to gReideth Instituteer with the number of older people they have been people who expressed to ARI unable to see. 35 per cent say this, with Saskatchewan second at 28 per cent. the same ebullience in the a ha ha r a r h ar One-in-five C ha anad ii an rs say a that a pre-p an a a a demic nor m r al will ne c r ver retu rn. No tably, 48 pLiberaler cent o fgovernment’s ability those who will not get vacci n aat ep iald against 1 COVID-19 s acci ay this, while the proportion is jutost 1 distribute5 per vaccines had cent among those who will. plummeted 30 points. 57% 47% 44% CONTACT: 36% Shachi Kurl, PreMethodologysident: 604.908.16932 % [email protected] @sha2 %chikurl Dave Korzinski, he Res An usearc Reidh 23%D Instituteirector: conducted 250.89 an9. 0online821 surveydave from.kor zDecemberinski@ a8 n g11 us 2020reid amon .org a re resentative randomi ed sam le of 1 603 Canadian adults who are members20% of An us Reid Forum. For com arison ur oses only a robability sam le of this si e would carry a mar in of error of - 2.4 ercenta e14% oints hat a difference two 1 times out of 20. Discre ancies in or between totals are due to roundin . he survey was self-commis- months make. No sooner sioned and aid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release. W had the Christmas deco- Dec 8-11 an 20-24 Feb 10-11 rations been stored and the post-fes- tive season diets begun than we Canada has done a ood ob in securin sufficient doses for Canadians learned of delays in vaccine ship- Canada has done a oor ob in securin sufficient doses for Canadians ments, of supply drying up, of uncer- Not really sure Can t say tainty over timelines, of the delayed realization that quarterly delivery tar- Source: Angus Reid Institute
March—April 2021
la i a l li i 201 2020
33% 31% 2 %
23% 22% 20%
15% 12% 10% 6%
he Desolate onely but not Isolated but not Moderately he Cherished isolated lonely Connected
201 (n 2 055) 2020 (n 1 845) 18
ral i i r i a i a ci r
38% 38% 38% 37% 37% 37% 36% 35% 35% 35% 33% 34% 34% 34% 31% 31% LIBERAL 30% 28% 33% 33% 33% CPC 26% 26% 31% 25% 30% 30%
21% 20% 20% 18% 1 % 18% 1 % 17% 17% 17% 17% NDP 15% 14% 14%
% 8% 8% 8% 8% 12% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 11% 10% BQ 7% 7% GREEN 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5%
Feb-1 Mar-1 May-1 un-1 ul-1 1 -Dec Feb-20 A r-20 May-20 Au -20 Nov-20 20-Dec an-21 Feb-21
Source: Angus Reid Institute
gets meant that while allies such as back into the good books of at least believing” bunch. Watching our el- the US and UK (both capable, unlike half of Canadians post-WE Charity derly compatriots bravely get their Canada, of producing their own vac- scandal has since seen his personal ap- jabs significantly changed the level cines) pressed ahead with mass vacci- proval sink five points to 45 per cent of enthusiasm and urgency we collec- nations, Canadians were left watch- on dim views of a deficient delivery. tively felt about being vaccinated. ing, and waiting. a ha Indeed, the ha same r a mid-February r h ar survey found that most describe Canada’s By mid-February, the number ha i of r peo a - a a a r c r a vaccinationp ial 1 efforts relative acci to other If Canadians are ple who expressed to ARI the same nations thus far as a “failure”. ebullience in the Liberal govern- 57% feeling frostier ment’s ability to distribute47% vaccines Politics towards Trudeau, they’re not had plummeted 30 points. Mean- 44% So, one36% might think if the country is exactly warming up to while, the number of Canadians who 2 % ticked off at the PM, his party’s2 % elec- Opposition Leader Erin felt their country had done23% a “bad toral fortunes (with20% apologies to Bruce O’Toole. The Conservative job” had more than doubled. Springsteen) would be similarly riding 14% a down bound train. But … not real- Party chief has held the ly. In fact, the Liberals retain a lead in position for less than a year The PM who pulled vote intent (albeit a tiny one). Dec 8-11 an 20-24 Feb 10-11but has yet to endear himself his way back into to many Canadians. Canada has done Whata ood gives? ob in securin Well, sufficientif Canadians doses forare Canadians the good books of at least feeling frostier towards Trudeau, Canada has done a oor ob in securin sufficient doses for Canadians half of Canadians post-WE they’re not exactly warming up to Not really sure Can t say Charity scandal has since Opposition Leader Erin O’Toole. The seen his personal approval Conservative Party chief has held the position for less than a year but has Will the spring—and an anticipated sink five points to 45 per yet to endear himself to many Cana- surge in vaccine supply—not only cent on dim views of a dians. His favourability rating contin- hearken a thaw in temperatures but deficient delivery. ues to fall while his unfavourability also a thaw in the Canadian elector- continues to rise. Toward the end of ate’s sentiment towards Trudeau? February, half of Canadians told ARI Only Pfizer, Moderna and maybe As- they viewed him in a negative light. traZeneca know.
Over more than a five-year tenure, Contributing Writer Shachi Kurl is And, as the mood of the nation soured Trudeau has proven time and time President of the Angus Reid Institute, on the not-great news, so too did the again his dual talents for getting into one of Canada’s leading national perception of Prime Minister Justin spectacular trouble, and then getting public opinion and research firms, Trudeau. The PM who pulled his way out of it. Canadians are a “seeing is based in Vancouver.
Policy 19 Canada and the World
It’s a deal! British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is exultant at 10 Downing Street after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyer last December 24, announcing the Brexit agreement for the UK to leave the EU. Pippa Fowles, No 10 Downing Street photo The Brexit Post-Mortem: Now What?
After five years of bilaterally draining, intellectual capi- Jeremy Kinsman tal-preoccupying focus on the divorce between the United avaged by the COVID-19 pan- Kingdom and the European Union, the economic and so- demic, the world welcomed R the end of the annus horrib- cial consequences of a Brexit ‘accompli’ are just begin- ilis of 2020. In Britain, it also meant ning to play out. Policy contributor and veteran diplomat a game-ending whistle on the Brex- Jeremy Kinsman, who served as both Canada’s high com- it process. But a staggering economy and a grim daily death toll muted cel- missioner to the UK and ambassador to the EU, situates ebration by English nationalists. the new status quo within the dramatic arc of postwar Brexit was always an emotional ex- history, and turns an eye toward the future, in and out of ercise about identity over econom- ics, energized through scapegoating the continent. the European Union for difficulties that the United Kingdom had a ma- jor hand in—the shambles of the Iraq war, the continental migrant crisis, an EU expansion too far and fast, the Great Recession, globalization.
March—April 2021 20 Brexit cast old against young, and The objective global assessment is that Britain is a countryside against cities, fueling a diminished proposition from its abandoned role as a wedge of resentment toward educat- ed “elites.” leading member of the half-billion strong European Union
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is try- whose collective economy rivals the US and China. ing to repair those breaches. But half of Britain—and, ominously, more than half of independence-in- clined Scotland—still resent the Brex- it narrative denying the European Common Market. “I beg you to give Empires foregone also condition col- facts of British life. News that Stan- it up.” Still, as the EEC countries be- lective memory, not that the British ley Johnson, the PM’s father (a for- gan to gain clear economic advantage, yearn nostalgically for days of glo- MacMillan convinced his government mer official of the European Com- ry of their empire on which the sun and Conservative Party in 1961 to mission), was applying for French never set. But the exceptionalist lega- launch an accession bid. cy of a global and transcendental his- citizenship thanks to a French grand- tory helped sustain the enduring gut mother, summed up both the ambi- Ever the nationalist, de Gaulle vetoed feeling EU membership was just not in guities of identity and the attractions successive UK applications—first in “their bones,” even though top British of mobility. 1963, then in 1967—believing that once in, the UK relationship with the politicians like Roy Jenkins and Chris Now what, for Britain and Europe? US would hinder Europe’s “strategic Patten, and some of the EU’s best and brightest officials, made the European ow will the new dynamic af- sovereignty.” The star-crossed Mac- venture work and shine more plausi- fect British diplomacy, given millan-deGaulle EU accession court- bly to the rest of the world. EU gover- that British officials are no ship included Macmillan bursting H nance and diplomacy miss their voic- longer, strictly speaking, Europe- into tears during a hunting party at es of British liberalism. an? Tony Blair used to say, “I won’t Rambouillet over de Gaulle’s intransi- choose between Europe and America. gence and de Gaulle witheringly tell- The UK’s challenge is to succeed as a I’ll have both.” But at the moment, ing his cabinet he was nearly moved single nation in an increasingly in- Britain risks having neither. to quote Edith Piaf at the sight: “Ne terdependent world. Having narrow- pleurez pas, milord.” ly won its Brexit referendum with a Brexit archives London’s pose as cynical nationalistic slogan “take back trans-Atlantic bridge, interpreting to istory matters. The First World control,” the government needs com- Americans the state of mind of 450 War was a shared tragedy. parably imaginative investment and million Europeans. The US now looks Wounded generations were H commitment to the future of “glob- lost to cynicism, insecurity, and sus- to Berlin and Paris to interpret the al Britain.” Team Johnson argues that ceptibility to escapist competitive EU, and as prime partners in setting British talent, experience, and entre- nationalisms. trans-Atlantic relations. Does this preneurial energy can forge success end Britain’s “special relationship” But the catastrophe of the Second with global soft power brands such as with Washington (“so special that World War is remembered different- Shakespeare, Manchester United, BBC only one of them can see it,” as one ly on either side of the Channel. On World, the Beatles and AstraZeneca. German official huffed)? one side, the trauma of defeats and Nonetheless, the objective global as- destructive occupations, great crimes, English ambivalence to EU member- sessment is that Britain is a dimin- and wanton cruelty drove the post- ship has old roots. Charles de Gaulle ished proposition from its aban- war project to end Europe’s murder- held from wartime experience that doned role as a leading member of the ous wars forever by forcing function- the UK was too tied to Washington half-billion strong European Union al cooperation and a shared beneficial to commit to Europe’s postwar polit- whose collective economy rivals the social model. ical project, which he envisioned as US and China. a primarily Franco-German alliance. This over-arching redemptive ethos In 1952, Foreign Minister Anthony eluded the British, whose island vic- uckily, international opportu- Eden explained that “we know in our tor’s wartime narrative remains heroic nity knocks. This year, the UK bones” that joining “would contradict in nostalgic re-telling. The EEC’s eco- L chairs two international sum- the inalterable marrow of the British nomic relevance mattered in Britain, mits—in June the G7 (succeeding the nation.” In 1958, when de Gaulle re- not the European project’s essential wasted year under Trump). Turning to turned to power, even though the political purpose that never engaged President Joe Biden’s plan to convene a Treaty of Rome had committed France British—or at least English—identity. wider summit of democracies, Johnson to the European project a year before, As the great journalist Hugo Young re- is inviting Australia, India, and South Prime Minister Harold Macmillan told called, “Europeanism” was viewed in Korea to join the G7 meeting, creating him that Britain “cannot accept” the Whitehall as “an eccentric allegiance.” a way station in the campaign to recu-
Policy 21 spender. Britain has to exploit its new er, who famously insisted there was advantage of agility outside the EU. no “such thing as society.” For the EU Notably, the UK has outperformed belief system, common policy is all the flat-footed EU on COVID-19 vac- about “society.” cinations, validating for some the op- The Brexit endgame left scars on both timistic case for leaving. But already sides. There were pointless British the government has cut its exempla- flourishes—for example, exiting the ry performance on Official Develop- EU’s remarkable Erasmus Plus pro- ment Assistance (ODA) from 0.7 per- gram that has exposed a million uni- cent back to 0.5 percent of GDP. versity students to other countries’ But the irresistible counterpoint to realities, and other nationalistic cut- the UK’s identity-based decision backs on interchange between UK and to go it alone is the pull and reali- EU citizens. ty of the EU’s gravitational econom- Impatient Europeans want now to ic weight. The UK can’t compensate get on with the building of their “ev- for the EU’s economic importance er-closer union,” spared at last from to Britain with lesser trade relation- UK haggling and opting-out of key ships. It will have to specialize in al- policy areas. The EU is already a global locating creative resources. rule-maker for key areas of economic life, such as governance of the Internet Trading its and social media, and Britain will be nameplate at the compelled to take some EU-mandat- PM David Cameron with then-US Vice EU table for a negotiator’s ed rules, like it or not. Political coher- President Joe Biden in London in 2010. ence remains problematic for a union Cameron’s win in the Scottish referendum seat across the table may rejecting independence in 2015 led to a of 27 still-sovereign nations, some Conservative majority in a subsequent seem a satisfying assertion of which—Poland, Hungary—are in- election and emboldened him to call the 2016 referendum on EU membership won by the of sovereign independence creasingly nationalistic and illiberal, Brexit insurgency and forcing him out. No 10 though populations remain broadly Downing Street Flickr photo for some, but it shouldn’t delude the British side EU-supportive. Brexit has definitively discouraged any other EU defection. perate democracies’ reputations and that it’s a negotiation France’s Emmanuel Macron wants to self-confidence, and to align them in between equals. boot up the EU’s world role but the a cautionary message to others, espe- EU’s forward momentum may depend cially China. on how German leadership evolves In November, COP 26, the annual when Angela Merkel steps down in United Nations Climate Change Con- September. In any event, Britain’s is- ference, or conference of the parties, land history will inevitably stay keyed he UK and the EU will be ne- meets in Glasgow in the next defin- to Europe’s. The UK will likely align gotiating crucial details of ing stage in the alliance against glob- with the EU on most value-based for- their bilateral economic and al warming, pivotal to Biden’s climate T eign policy issues, especially the over- trading arrangement for years. Trad- agenda. The UK government hopes arching climate and health crises. ing its nameplate at the EU table for a its multilateralist leadership dims the negotiator’s seat across the table may In assessing the project by Europeans Biden administration’s memory of seem a satisfying assertion of sover- to end their wars forever by creating a Tory over-the-top courting of Brex- eign independence for some, but it humane model for economic and po- it-supporting and diplomacy-averse litical unification while maintaining Donald Trump. shouldn’t delude the British side that it’s a negotiation between equals. cultural and other diversities, a Chi- Globally, London banks on leader- nese ambassador described it in 2006 ship opportunities to vault its pres- Mutual incomprehension condi- as the sort of geo-political event that tige and influence above its actu- tioned the Brexit negotiations. The EU occurs every 500 years. In or out of the al weight, including leveraging its underestimated the profundity of the EU, the UK is part of its epic story. UK’s identity beliefs. “We never real- anachronistic UK standing as one of Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman five permanent members of the UN ly understood each other,” an EU ne- served as Canadian ambassador to the Security Council, and as the con- gotiator confided. The UK never em- EU, high commissioner to the United venor of the neglected Common- pathized with the EU commitment Kingdom, and ambassador to Russia. wealth, as well as building on its sta- to a fair European social model, most He is a Distinguished Fellow of the tus as NATO’s second-biggest defence theatrically under Margaret Thatch- Canadian International Council.
March—April 2021 22 The Biden Agenda RESTORING WORLD LEADERSHIP FOR PROSPERITY AND STABILITY
On the one hand, with his love letters to dictators, ran- behind. The economy needs not only a post-pandemic restart, but adjust- dom and arbitrary attacks on the rules-based internation- ments that ensure that no group is left al order and use of his Twitter account as a multilateral behind in the recovery. Additional- ly, there are also opportunities for re- irritant, Donald Trump is not a tough foreign policy act to sets in foreign policy. Multilateral in- follow. On the other, the domestic and foreign legacies stitutions such as the World Health of the twice-impeached president demand a significant Organization and the United Nations always have benefitted from Ameri- amount of remedial work by his successor. Earnscliffe can involvement, but it is in no one’s Principal and former US diplomat Sarah Goldfeder out- best interest for them to be dependent lines President Joe Biden’s plan to accelerate that process. upon American largesse or leadership. Rebuilding and buttressing allianc- es will be critical. The Trump years will be remembered for a president grown weary of America’s anger and Sarah Goldfeder who preferred to go it alone—to ne- bad faith as it attempted to find al- gotiate bilaterally and neglect allianc- “Every action we take in our conduct lies willing to join in actions against es, seeing them as outdated tools that abroad, we must take with American perceived enemies of democracy and required too much compromise. On working families in mind. Advancing freedom. In what could be argued to trade, the United States could have a foreign policy for the middle class be a global sigh of relief, the Nobel chosen a route that brought along demands urgent focus on our domestic committee awarded President Obama like-minded, rules-based trading part- economic renewal.” the Peace Prize after less than a year ners. In discussions with Russia, align- President Biden on America’s Place in office. in the World, February 4, 2021 ment with NATO partners and others President Biden is re-entering the would have made the negotiating po- he United States of America world stage with a team of seasoned sition of the United States stronger. has a mixed legacy on the foreign policy professionals. Many In choosing the bilateral path, Trump world stage. While the post- T of them have spent the past four turned his back on allies and allowed World War II era was a high-water years considering how to remake rivals to gain the global high ground. mark, there have since been more American foreign policy after wit- than few times when American in- The appointment of Secretary of State volvement has been nothing less nessing the effects of the shortcom- Antony Blinken along with a robust than disastrous. US involvement in ings of the Obama years. Many, in- national security team brings decades Latin America from the Eisenhower cluding the President himself, have of experience in diplomacy and intel- era on, for example, was often cata- articulated the need for American ligence. Guaranteeing dialogue, ex- strophic. On February 15, 2003, the foreign and trade policy to benefit change and debate is part of the Biden entire world came out to protest the America’s middle class. That feature, plan to make policy that meets the na- American proposal to invade Iraq on more than anything else, will de- tional interests of all Americans. The the basis of questionable evidence fine the Biden administration’s glob- positioning of Vice President Kama- on the existence of weapons of mass al profile. What does that mean, in la Harris in a lead foreign policy role, destruction. Later, in Syria, America terms of policy decisions? where she is cultivating relationships drew a red line that it then ignored with foreign leaders and within exec- hese next four years offer a pe- and with that, lost virtually all credi- utive branch agencies at home, also riod of re-set in almost every bility in the Middle East. telegraphs a level of commitment to way. Politically, with the change T a whole-of-government approach to In some ways, the work the Biden of administration, but also economi- foreign policy development. team has in front of them is reminis- cally. What we learned about the re- cent of what the Obama team faced covery from 2008 was that our think- The past four years have demonstrat- in 2008. At that point, the world had ing was flawed and many were left ed the need for the United States to be
Policy 23 ing for the contrast with the Trump administration’s neglect of an issue seen by most allies and adversaries alike as key to global stability. The concept of fairness being at the heart of the American psyche, the Biden climate team will have to bring evidence that America is not shoul- dering more than its share of the eco- nomic burden of mitigation. That means working with rivals like China to demonstrate a global unity of pur- pose. Compartmentalizing relation- ships with geostrategic rivals is noth- ing new, but this new front will be rife with challenges. Americans will have to trust evidence of China’s commit- ment to zero-emissions vehicles, car- Vice President Kamala Harris looks on as President Biden signs executive orders in the Oval Office. Sarah Goldfeder writes that her “lead foreign policy role, where she is cultivating relationships bon capture technologies, and a move with foreign leaders...also telegraphs a level of commitment to a whole of government approach away from fossil fuels. to foreign policy development.” White House photo Finally, a challenge to any progres- sive policy is the integration of ru- part of the equation for global stabili- Endowment for International Peace ral economies and communities to ty. Now we are facing a period of cri- brought together a task force to iden- that vision. The discussion on ener- sis and instability created not just by tify how to make foreign policy work gy transitions, reduction of defense COVID-19, but by a series of climate for America’s middle class. More than spending (in the American context), and humanitarian disasters around one of the authors is now part of the and the innovation economy isn’t the world. Moving forward without administration, most notably Jake Sul- as easy a sell in rural communities. the leadership of the United States is livan, Biden’s national security advi- Pointing to the importance of global sor. With globalization assailed since possible, but not desirable. President markets may work in some of the ag- the 2008 financial crash, the articula- Biden has articulated a vision of Unit- riculture-supported areas, but overall, tion of a foreign policy framed for do- ed States involvement to create stable rural America is suspect of any trea- mestic stakeholders is bold. and prosperous partnerships that pro- sure spent on what is perceived to be vide jobs and security to Americans. oving beyond the tradition- the interests of elites. Foreign aid and the administrative al, siloed conversations of At Foggy Bottom on February 4th, the costs associated with the dispensation M foreign policy elites to a President noted that “Investing in of it make up less than one percent of conversation about investing in Amer- our diplomacy isn’t something we do the US total federal budget. In actual ican communities, demonstrating the just because it’s the right thing to do aid dispersed, the US sits at 0.2 percent value of having partners on the world for the world. We do it in order to live of Gross National Income, well shy of stage as part of attracting that invest- in peace, security, and prosperity. We the UN recommended 0.7 percent. ment, and moving beyond partisan do it because it’s in our own naked That said, the US still accounts for 23 divisions will be critical. The use of self-interest.” The challenges that he percent of the overall spending by Or- foreign policy as a political football and his foreign policy team will have ganisation for Economic Cooperation puts the entire country at a disadvan- in the coming months are multi-fac- and Development (OECD) countries. tage and erodes trust between Ameri- eted. Proving the naked self-interest The disconnect in the domestic con- cans and their government. will be foundational to the credibili- versation reflects the actual share of ty of his administration at home, and Those are the challenges for the Biden the burden the US takes on, not the proving that America is once again a foreign policy team: regaining the amount of spending it does in relation willing partner and advocate for de- trust of both allies and Americans to the size of its economy. mocracy and good governance will alike, investing in policy that demon- be another. Demonstrating the benefits of foreign strates benefits at home as well as Contributing Writer Sarah Goldfeder, a aid and investments in foreign poli- abroad, all while preserving a position Principal of Earnscliffe Strategy Group cy to working class Americans may be of strength that facilitates leadership in Ottawa, is a former career officer next to impossible, but it is possible on priority issues. Climate policy has of the US State Department who was to design foreign policy so it reflects already emerged as the defining issue an adviser to two US ambassadors in those priorities. In 2020, the Carnegie of global leadership, even more strik- Ottawa, as well as serving in Mexico.
March—April 2021 24 Building Back Better, Together: Lessons from Virtual Davos
Every year, the world’s most politically and economically On the other hand, I missed the in- terpersonal interactions with the ex- engaged leaders gather in Davos for the World Economic tended WEF community: the chance Forum meeting. Nearly a year into the COVID-19 pan- encounters on the shuttle bus and the interesting discussions at the demic lockdown, Davos, like most events of its kind, was congress centre. This reminded me held virtually this year. Suzanne Fortier, Principal and of how students—at McGill and oth- Vice-Chancellor of McGill University, who has attended er universities around the world— must now manage the competing de- Davos since 2016, has filed her annual Letter from Davos mands of their remote studies while to Policy, this year from Montreal. missing many aspects of the in-per- son campus experience.
uring a time of border clo- As I planned my agenda and attend- Suzanne Fortier sures and turning inward, ed the online sessions, the parallels the WEF constituents have n the past year, COVID-19 has between my virtual Davos experience D shown a remarkable commitment to transformed nearly every aspect of and the new reality of university stu- interconnectivity across nations, or- our lives, shifting the bulk of our I dents pursuing their education during ganizations, and disciplines to ad- activities to the virtual realm. Like all a pandemic quickly became obvious. dress the most pressing global chal- participants in this year’s World Eco- lenges. In the lead up to Davos, the nomic Forum (WEF) Davos Meeting, On the one hand, virtual Davos af- Global University Leaders Forum forded remarkable flexibility. The on- I attended from home, starting with (GULF), which I chair, held over a line sessions and recordings allowed the opening ceremony, which in- dozen meetings—an unprecedented me to maximize my Davos experi- cluded a beautiful rendition of Bee- number—which enhanced our abili- thoven’s “Pastorale” performed by ence without the constraints of time ty to interact, cooperate, and estab- musicians from around the world. zones or travel time. lish common goals.
While Davos 2021 was a unique ex- perience, what remained consistent was the richness of ideas exchanged around some of the most consequen- tial issues of our time. The ongoing impact of COVID-19 framed discus- sions across topics, as did the ev- er-pressing needs for climate action and social inclusion.
The recurring theme of building back better infused most sessions, includ- ing an address from German Chan- cellor Angela Merkel. Drawing from the experience of a long and effec- tive political career, Merkel explored the pandemic from multiple angles, making her session, which is avail- able online, a valuable point of ref- German Chancellor Angela Merkel in her Davos session, Fortier writes, “highlighted the ways in which the pandemic exposed grave disparities in our societies and our lack of preparedness in the erence for anyone navigating the face of a global crisis.” World Economic Forum image disruptions of COVID-19. In her re-
Policy 25 25 Many of the ideas about ESG (En- vironmental, Social and Corporate Governance) in BlackRock CEO Lar- ry Fink’s annual letter to CEOs were echoed in the conversations on fi- nancial sustainability. There was a widespread uptake among discus- sants of stakeholder capitalism: the philosophy that business decisions should reflect the interests of multi- ple constituents, not only the share- holders. The increasing variety and affordability of sustainable invest- ment options, particularly with re-
McGill Principal Suzanne Fortier (bottom right) at one of her virtual Davos sessions, which gards to pension investments, are allowed her to participate online from her Montreal office, though she also writes she missed “the directing significant capital towards interpersonal interactions with the extended WEF community.” World Economic Forum image companies that are better prepared to address climate risk and im- prove society—another tangible sign marks, she highlighted the ways in will be essential to meet the Paris of progress. which the pandemic exposed grave Agreement goal of containing global disparities in our societies and our warming to “well below two degrees year into the COVID-19 pan- lack of preparedness in the face of above pre-industrial averages.” It will demic, the drive to confront a global crisis, suggesting that a re- also require resolve, open-minded- the threat of climate change turn to “normal” cannot be the way ness, and meaningful lifestyle chang- A has taken on renewed vigor. There is forward. With her sights set on the es from all members of society. palpable momentum behind these future, Merkel underscored the ad- topics, which will likely intensify at vantages of a robust research and de- There was a the 26th UN Climate Change Con- velopment policy, which, as we have ference (COP26) in Glasgow this seen, can catalyze breakthrough in- widespread uptake November. novations such as the COVID-19 among discussants of vaccines. She also prescribed an ap- stakeholder capitalism: the Other highlights for me were the proach of “precautionary agility,” as philosophy that business sessions on the future of education well as cohesive, concerted action to decisions should reflect the and work. I had the privilege of con- tackle other global emergencies such tributing to a panel dedicated to Re- as climate change. interests of multiple imagining Education, which empha- constituents, not only the sized the importance of adopting a here was no shortage of ses- shareholders. farsighted approach with a focus on sions on climate action at this the skills that will prepare students T year’s meeting. Politicians, fi- for the future, such as: creativity and nanciers, and private sector leaders innovation, digital literacy, global all placed carbon neutrality at the citizenship, civic responsibility, and heart of their discussions, making it Measures such as a carbon tax, while “learning to learn.” Given the inevi- clear that transitioning to a net-zero recognized as potentially highly ef- tability of continuous, rapid change, economy has crystallized into a seri- fective, have proven politically dif- instilling these skills in students, ous commitment. Countries and or- ficult to implement. Signaling, or is- even as early as primary school, will ganizations worldwide are heeding suing advance notice of change, was be essential. The discussion also em- the call. Canada and the EU have phasized the importance of pro- broadly acknowledged as an effec- pledged carbon neutrality by 2050; viding access to quality education tive tactic. For example, to facilitate McGill University has committed across the world, noting that new the mass adoption of electric cars, the to meet this objective by 2040. As learning platforms developed in re- Quebec government announced in France’s president, Emmanuel Ma- sponse to the pandemic are creating 2020 that the sale of gas-powered ve- cron, underscored, a priority moving greater opportunities for more inclu- hicles will be banned by 2035. I antic- forward must be to establish shared sive access. ipate that we will see more signaling net-zero measures and norms for in the future, particularly to curtail Delivering the Reskilling Revolution and greater accountability. the effect of e-waste, which also has a Harnessing the Fourth Industrial Revo- New technologies and innovations major environmental impact. lution were two of many sessions that
March—April 2021 26 expanded upon the findings in the I am reminded of single action would have the most latest WEF Future of Jobs Report. Ac- how privileged we impact, one participant responded cording to the WEF, 94 percent of that it would be to provide access to business leaders expect employees are in Canada, where the education to all women in the world. to learn new skills on the job, a sig- representation of women I am reminded of how privileged we nificant increase from 65 percent in among those enrolled in are in Canada, where the representa- 2018. As we live and work longer, higher education tion of women among those enrolled we must encourage both “work-inte- in higher education institutions na- grated learning” and “learning-inte- institutions nationwide is tionwide is nearly 60 percent. I am grated work.” Lifelong learning is no nearly 60 percent. I am also mindful that there is still much longer optional but essential for em- also mindful that there is work to be done in many other parts ployers and employees alike. still much work to be of the world. done in many other parts rom working remotely to bal- To build back better together as a glob- ancing the converging de- of the world. al community, women everywhere F mands of work and life, many must be given the opportunity to employers are concerned about em- play a leading role; increasing their ployees’ mental health—a topic ex- access to education globally is an es- plored in Prioritizing Workplace Men- ence with renewed optimism and am sential first step. tal Health. While the pandemic has carrying forward many insights into taught us some lessons, much of what how we can emerge from the pan- Suzanne Fortier is the Principal and Vice- Chancellor of McGill University. In 2019, we currently know is anecdotal, re- demic stronger and better prepared. minding us of the importance of con- she was appointed Chair of the World One insight that especially resonat- ducting rigorous research and collect- Economic Forum’s Global University ed with me was shared in the session, ing data to inform policy design. Leaders Forum (GULF). She also co- Harnessing Technology for Environmen- chairs the Global Future Council on the I concluded my virtual Davos exper- tal Sustainability. When asked what NewAgenda for Education and Skills.
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Policy 27 Official Languages Reform: Failure is not an Option
The current prime minister of Canada shares a father language of choice, have come up as recently as last month, when the Of- with the country’s seminal official bilingualism policies ficial languages commissioner report- of half a century ago. That makes the protection of the ed the difficulty of working in French in the federal civil service. Part VII of French language more than a Liberal Party legacy for the Act is seen as an empty shell since the Trudeau government. With the working paper on the a 2018 Federal Court decision found modernization of the Official Languages Act now public that the obligations it states regard- ing the promotion of both official lan- and a likely election looming, updating Pierre Trudeau’s guages are too broad to be adjudicat- vision of a bilingual Canada for the 21st century will be ed. These issues were on the minister’s a challenge. radar, and she promised to address them in her plan for the moderniza- tion of the OLA. More urgently, the federal language regime is perceived as failing franco- servatives and the Bloc Québécois all Stéphanie Chouinard phones, who are slowly but inexora- sensing the opportunity of winning bly becoming less visible in Canada. n February 19, Official Lan- more seats at home. guages Minister Mélanie Joly Between rampant assimilation in an- To some observers, this working pa- presented her working paper glophone parts of the country, the O per was an unnecessary step, even a arrival of large contingents of im- on the modernization of the Official delaying tactic, towards the presenta- Languages Act (OLA). Breaking from migrants to Canada in recent years, tion of a full-fledged bill in the House Liberal tradition, which always placed the vast majority of whom have (or of Commons to go ahead with the re- French and English on a scrupulous- choose) English as their official lan- form. Several years have passed since ly equal footing, the document recog- guage, and few opportunities for an- the beginning of consultations on nizes the vulnerability of the French glophones to learn French in Canada, this issue; both the House of Com- language in Canada. It vows to imple- francophones are becoming an in- mons and the Senate have published ment “substantive equality” between creasingly smaller minority of the to- reports on the matter, following the the two official languages, while also tal population. Even in Quebec, and testimonies of myriad experts and calling for a further integration of pro- particularly in Montreal, French is minority-language community mem- tections for Indigenous languages. perceived as threatened, with English bers. Even Official Languages Com- becoming an increasingly important This document is a step in the right missioner Raymond Théberge him- language of work. This challenge was direction toward necessary reforms. self put out a paper highlighting, top of mind for the minister, as is ev- But the OLA being only one of many among other things, the ways his ident in her approach to the reform. pieces of legislation targeted by the powers should be amended. minister, her mission is still far from Other issues with the OLA, a legisla- o target this issue, Joly prom- accomplished. In her handling of an tion last revisited in 1988, are well ises to support francophone issue as contentious, yet as fundamen- known. Part IV of the Act, concern- minority institutions, especial- tal, to Canada’s national fabric as of- T ing communications with the pub- ly in the domain of early education ficial languages, failure should not be lic, needs to encompass the govern- as well as post-secondary education, an option. ment’s use of electronic and social where a crisis is looming in places like But neither time nor context are on media—a matter that came under in- Ontario and Alberta. She also wants to her side to make her plan a reality. creased scrutiny since the beginning reach the target, set in 2006 but nev- She’s dealing with a minority House of the COVID-19 pandemic. Problems er met since, of 4.4 percent of all im- in which anything could happen, es- with Part V, which grants the right for migrants coming to Canada outside pecially with the Liberals, the Con- bureaucrats to work in their official of Quebec having French as their first
March—April 2021 28 official language. She wishes to recruit massively from other francophone countries to address the teacher short- age in French immersion programs throughout the country, in order to give more anglophone children the opportunity to learn the other official language—a measure that should spur the interest of the linguistic majority in the OLA, perhaps for the first time. Joly responds, in part, to Premier François Legault’s wish to see Bill 101 be applied to federally regulat- ed private businesses, by encourag- ing French as the language of work in such businesses in Quebec as well as in other regions, yet to be determined, where there is a strong francophone presence. She also wishes to bolster the protection and promotion of French in Official Languages Minister Mélanie Joly is carrying the burden of reforming the Official the country, notably through the rein- Languages Act, the first effort to update the OLA since 1988. Is she up to it, in what may be an forcement of Radio-Canada’s mandate election year, with major parties vying for seats in la belle province? Adam Scotti photo in the dissemination of French-lan- guage cultural content. cessitate a strong resolve from PMO elements of the working paper echo Will these measures be sufficient to re- and cabinet to ensure official languag- the official opposition’s demands, verse the current linguistic trends in es are—and remain—a priority. some others, such as mandatory bi- Canada? While some of her propos- lingualism for all Supreme Court ap- als respond to minority communities’ In times of financial pointments, run against the tradition- demands and answer pressing needs, al conservative stance. It remains to be none of them directly address some of constraints, minority seen whether Erin O’Toole will change the most important factors behind the communities are often among his tune to better align with Quebec assimilation of francophones, such as the first to be short-changed nationalists, whom he has been court- a lack of support for exogamous fami- by governments; avoiding ing relentlessly since he was named lies, who make up the vast majority of this trend will necessitate a party leader. The NDP, for its part, has households to which French-language not yet presented a coherent point of speakers outside Quebec belong. strong resolve from PMO and view on official languages since it lost its “champion” on this file, François There are several hurdles to the im- cabinet to ensure official Choquette, in the 2019 election. plementation of Joly’s plan, and they languages are—and won’t all be coming from the opposi- remain—a priority. Secondly, the Liberals appear to be tion bench. Her reforms will be ren- readying their troops for an elec- dered meaningless if the appropriate tion. It is expected the writs will be resources are not invested by the gov- dropped as soon as vaccination rates ernment to make them reality. make it safe to do so, possibly as ear- ly as late spring. Joly’s window of op- In the context of a weakened Cana- oreover, the bill that should portunity won’t be open for very long dian economy already reeling from emanate from this working and her bill, if introduced, may very the pandemic, and facing the biggest paper is still in preparation, well die on the Order Paper… Right deficit of the country’s history, it is M and it is uncertain at this point when on time to be relegated yet again, like unclear how much supplementary it was two years ago, to the status of funding will be made available to her, it will be tabled in Parliament. In the an electoral promise. as different cabinet ministers will also context of a minority government, be seeking their piece of a shrunken this means two things. Contributing Writer Stéphanie budgetary pie. Firstly, the opposition will need to be Chouinard is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Royal Military convinced that the minister’s reform In times of financial constraints, mi- College in Kingston, cross appointed nority communities are often among is sound. The Conservative Party of to Queen’s University. She specializes the first to be short-changed by gov- Canada has taken a keen interest in in language rights, Indigenous rights, ernments; avoiding this trend will ne- this file in the past months, and while federalism and judicial politics.
Policy 29 The Atlantic Bubble and Nova Scotia Politics
Among the many political knock-ons of the COVID-19 In July, when case numbers across the Atlantic provinces were stabilized, the pandemic has been the emergence of a hierarchy of polit- four premiers entered into an agree- ical successes and casualties. Stephen McNeil, who had ment to create an “Atlantic bubble” been Liberal premier of Nova Scotia for more than six years that permitted unrestricted travel within Atlantic Canada but required when the pandemic hit, left the office on his own time- all others traveling to the region to line and terms on February 23. Dalhousie University’s Lori self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival. This initiative was meant to support Turnbull looks at the province’s transfer of political power business, tourism, and mental health to his successor, Iain Rankin. in the region. It stayed in effect until November, when the second wave of the pandemic took hold.
Lori Turnbull McNeil’s last year in the Premier’s The four premiers Office was marked by tragedy in the entered into an n August of 2020, Stephen Mc- province. On top of the public health agreement to create an Neil, then premier of Nova Sco- and economic challenges related to I tia, announced his intention to the global pandemic, the largest mass “Atlantic bubble” that leave politics by early in the new shooting in Canadian history oc- permitted unrestricted year. He had been leader of the Liber- curred in Portapique, NS in April 2020. travel within Atlantic al Party since 2007 and Premier since Just days later, six members of the Ca- Canada but required all 2013. He led two back-to-back major- nadian Armed Forces were killed in a others traveling to the ity governments and decided not to helicopter crash into the Ionian Sea go for a third, thereby creating a need near Greece; four of them were from region to self-isolate for and an opportunity for new leader- Nova Scotia. In May, Captain Jenni- 14 days upon arrival. ship as the province begins its vac- fer Casey, originally from Nova Scotia, cine rollout and embarks on a process was killed in a Snowbirds plane crash of social and economic rebuilding. in Kamloops. In December, a crew of Some were shocked to see him leave. scallop fishers went missing in the wa- “I’m tired,” he explained. ters off the southwestern part of the Premier McNeil has something of a province. During this period of over- The leadership race to replace McNeil mixed legacy. He was known for being whelming loss and sadness, the pre- was a quiet one. After McNeil made decisive (for better or for worse), and mier was strong and thoughtful. clear his intention to resign, there was for not always listening. He did not al- speculation that either Halifax Re- ways consult and could be accused of oing forward, memories of gional Municipality Mayor (and for- not living up to modern expectations Premier McNeil’s time in office mer Liberal Member of Parliament) when it comes to openness and trans- G will be shaped by his manage- Mike Savage or former Liberal cabinet parency. His relationship with the ment of the COVID-19 pandemic. The minister Scott Brison would run. Both province’s labour unions was rife with province’s case numbers remained declined, as did Nova Scotia minister conflict and mistrust, due in large part low throughout the year as compared Kelly Regan and McNeil’s former chief to his government’s implementation to other jurisdictions in the country. of staff, Laurie Graham. After a period of back-to-work legislation for teach- However, the outbreak at the North- of time when it seemed that no one ers and essential services legislation wood nursing home in the north end was interested in the job, McNeil min- for health care workers. McNeil would of Halifax shone a light on the inad- isters Labi Kousoulis, Randy Delorey, defend these decisions as efforts to re- equacies and vulnerabilities of long- and Iain Rankin left cabinet to put build the province’s finances. term care facilities in the province. their names on the ballot.
March—April 2021 30 In the meantime, Rankin has chosen a cabinet that speaks to his priorities and vision for the province. Nota- bly, he has created a new Department of Infrastructure and Housing. This comes at a critical time, as pandem- ic evictions brought to light the cri- sis in affordable housing in the prov- ince. Also, the premier has created the Office of Equity and Anti-Racism and an Office of Mental Health and Ad- dictions. There are only four wom- en in Rankin’s 16-member cabinet; as he campaigns in the next election, he will face questions about how he will improve these statistics.
The premier would want to avoid, at all costs, the scenario playing out in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia’s new Premier Iain Rankin at the swearing-in of his cabinet on February 23. While Labrador, where the general Nova Scotia has contained the pandemic in the Atlantic Bubble, the unhappy experience of the Newfoundland election shutdown is a constraint against an early call to the polls. Government election has been moved to of Nova Scotia photo a special ballot because of an unexpected outbreak of ith due respect to all three quire that elections be held roughly COVID-19. it was noted that there every five years. The last election in were no women on the Nova Scotia was held in May of 2017, W so Rankin has, at most, a year and ballot, no Black Nova Scotians, and no Indigenous people. Given the im- change to build his own brand while portant conversations both across the channelling the successes of the Mc- country and around the world about Neil government. In the short term, Rankin will be ex- pected to meet the legislature as soon equity, diversity and inclusion, it Third, the fact that the Liberals have as possible. In 2020, the House of As- seemed that the party was missing an been in power since 2013 could mean sembly met for a total of only 13 days opportunity for growth and change. that voters are inclined to give the and did not convene at all after the There was never an apparent front- Progressive Conservatives a shot at COVID-19 lockdown in March. The runner, and Rankin won on the sec- government under Tim Houston’s opposition is waiting anxiously to ond ballot after having promised leadership. Three back-to-back Liber- question the government on a range generational change, green growth, al governments could be too much to of issues, including its handling of and social progress. ask of voters, even with a new leader. COVID-19. His relationships with the As a new premier, he faces a number On the other hand, it could be that business sector will be key as he gen- of serious challenges. First, as is the many voters choose continuity over erates support for his plans for green case with every political leader, he fac- change given the circumstances of the growth. At the same time, it is impera- es the urgency of the COVID-19 pan- pandemic. Fourth, there is the timing tive that he take an inclusive approach demic. Nova Scotians await the de- of the election call itself. When does he to governance that brings more voices livery of the vaccine so that business, go? The premier would want to avoid, to the table, including younger voters. travel, and social life can return to at all costs, the scenario playing out in It’s been a long time since Nova Sco- some kind of normal. Second, he has Newfoundland and Labrador, where tia had a new premier; time will tell a very short runway before he has no the general election has been moved whether Rankin will have the chance
choice but to call a provincial election. to a special ballot because of an unex- to be more than a placeholder. Nova Scotia is the only province with- pected outbreak of COVID-19. Rankin Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull, out fixed election dates. However, also needs to be mindful of the possi- co-winner of the prestigious Donner the House of Assembly Act and the bility of a federal election call some- Prize, is director of the School of Public Charter of Rights and Freedoms re- time in the next year. Administration at Dalhousie University.
Policy 31
Column / Don Newman Lessons from the Pandemic s 2021 unfolds and the COVID- Wanzhou in Vancouver on an ex- headed the Asian practice of McK- 19 pandemic, hopefully, re- tradition request from the US. Ma- insey from 2004-09, based in Shang- A cedes, Canada will have to dame Meng is the daughter of Hua- hai. While Barton walked back his adapt and adjust to some of the les- wei founder Ren Zhengfei, and CFO enthusiastic support for Beijing last sons we have learned from the pan- of that company. She is accused of May, saying he’d “probably drank the demic and other events of the past bank fraud for lying to American Kool Aid for too long” on China, that year. Some of the adjustments banks about financial transactions public reality check and his record will be difficult. Some will appear between a Huawei subsidiary and Ira- with the regime make him best in- contradictory. nian companies between 2009 and terlocutor. Beijing has already linked 2014, when those transactions were the release of Meng and the release of We will have to be more independent illegal because of sanctions against the Michaels as a viable quid pro quo, and assertive, both domestically and Iran for pursuing its program to ac- so the cost in terms of “lian” or losing internationally. Canada must make quire nuclear weapons. face, has been processed. If there was sure we have the capacity to manu- facture the equipment, vaccines and The extradition request came from ever a time to make a deal this is it. other material needed to face crises in the Trump administration, which, in When the two Michaels are safely the future without relying solely on 2018, had pulled the United States home, Canada can normalize its rela- the good will of others. But the trade out of the Iran nuclear agreement of tions with Beijing absent the distort- agreements, defence alliances and in- 2015. That agreement, between Teh- ing coercion of hostage diplomacy. ternational relationships that are vi- ran and the P5+1 countries (perma- Issues from whether to bar Huawei tal to governing in an ever-more con- nent members of the UN Security from our 5G high speed telecommu- nected world must be strengthened Council plus the EU) cancelled the nications network as our Five Eyes and enhanced. sanctions in exchange for restrictions intelligence partners have done, to on and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear whether to identify China’s persecu- And Canada must raise its diplomat- enrichment program. The Biden ad- tion of Xinjiang’s Uyghurs as geno- ic profile, to strengthen its role in the ministration aims to restore the deal. struggle in what will be the most im- cide and how to respond to Beijing’s portant international contest of the Meanwhile, the American extradi- violation of its treaty obligations to next 50 years. That is the struggle be- tion request remains in place and is the people of Hong Kong, will be tween liberal democracies led by the winding its way through the Canadi- managed with moral clarity. United States, and authoritarian-total- an courts, but sanctions or not, now For the foreseeable future, the geopo- itarian states led by China. Ironically, is the time for Canada to exert its in- litical competition will be between to get in a position to play an import- dependence and try to cut a deal that the repressive regimes of China, ant role in that ongoing struggle we would return the Michaels to Cana- Russia, Iran and their acolytes, and will first have to accommodate China da and Madame Meng to China. Un- the liberal democracies of the Unit- and disappoint the United States be- til now, Canada has relied on the US ed States, Europe, Australia, Japan, fore we join Washington and our oth- and other allies to keep the pressure South Korea and, hopefully, India. It er natural allies in countering Beijing. on China to release our hostages. is time for Canada to clear up our un- Now, we must try to negotiate a hos- finished business with China so we hat can be done by using the tage swap with Beijing to get the Ca- can move forward in that battle. months ahead to try and final- nadians back. T ly resolve the “Two Michaels” Columnist Don Newman, Executive hostage situation. Canadian citizens anada’s ambassador to Chi- Vice President of Rubicon Strategies in Michael Kovrig and Michael Spav- na, Dominic Barton, is the Ottawa, is a lifetime member of the or have been languishing in Chinese C ideal man to do it. Barton’s Parliamentary Press Gallery and author jails for over two years, seized in re- expertise as a business executive and of the bestselling memoir, Welcome to taliation for the detention of Meng avowed Sinophile dates to when he the Broadcast.
March—April 2021 32 BOOK REVIEWS
man was elated. He knew this was a had filed had been cut to ribbons. recipe for disaster, or at least lengthy The lesson I learned from this was delay by Chinese officials. that whoever you were, The Globe “I wrestled with my conscience, lost owned your labour. I suspect that the battle and returned to the count- one of the lessons Norman may have er,” he wrote, years later. “Guys, learned was how to write in a way I said, there’s something you should that made his stories difficult to cut. know. And I told them the whole The pieces included in this collec- story, including the Shanghai es- tion are perfect examples: almost ev- cape route.” ery one of them ends with a sting in He was greeted with polite conde- the tail that no cynical copy editor scension; the Americans had every- would dare remove. thing taken care of. “Thanks any- The insights stand up, years after they way. And they left.” So did Webster, were written. The only case where he whistling. felt obliged to write a postscript was “What happened? Well, the Can- about Aung San Suu Kyi. While she ton-bound film somewhat got mis- was, as he wrote 11 years ago, “cou- placed in transit and took days to rageous, beautiful, eloquent, win- reappear,” he wrote. “The Shanghai ner of the Nobel Peace Prize (and) Fifty Years of package, meanwhile, bumped along authentic leader of her people,” her Being in the to Toronto, where The Globe and “cold-hearted actions against the Ro- Mail ran a world scoop of photos of hingya Muslim minority” left him Right Place at the Great Ping Pong Adventure. It wondering. “Did we make a bad call also flogged them toTime (colour here? Did a world and journalists the Right Time cover), Newsweek, Paris Match, The looking for a heroine go overboard in Australian, the Honolulu Star-Bulletin, our evaluation of Burma’s beautiful and others around the world.” lady of the lake?” he wrote in 2018. Norman Webster “When she finally came to power af- Newspapering: 50 Years of That one anecdote in this wonder- ter a long struggle with her generals, Reporting from Canada and ful collection captures the essence of did she revert to the thuggish ways of Around the World Norman Webster: cheerful, well-in- those same generals?” He concluded formed, shrewd, honourable,—and Barlow Books/2020 that “the world may now be seeing highly competitive. He is an athlete, the downside of the determination and until recently played hockey and and ambition that served her so well Review by Graham Fraser competed in triathlons. under house arrest.” n 1971, Norman Webster was The This collection of Webster’s reporting I Globe and Mail’s China correspon- ranges from London to Beijing, Ox- orn and raised in Sherbrooke, dent, covering ping pong diplomacy: ford to Mogadishu and Quebec City to B Quebec in the Eastern Town- the arrival of an American ping pong Queen’s Park with brilliant thumbnail ships, Webster went to Bishop’s Uni- team that laid the groundwork for the sketches of Bill Davis, Mike Pearson, versity, worked part-time for the Sher- beginning of diplomatic relations be- Daniel Johnson Sr., Zhou Enlai, Mar- brooke Record, and then won a Rhodes tween Richard Nixon’s United States garet Thatcher, Princess Di and many Scholarship. When he returned from and Mao Zedong’s China. others. The texts, originally published Oxford, he was hired by The Globe and in 1965, at the ripe old age of 24, After days of scrambling about, writ- in The Globe and Mail, The Gazette and was sent to Quebec City where the ing about the visit and taking pho- Maisonneuve, are a blend of stories Quiet Revolution was in full swing. tographs of what had become, as he filed from the spot at the time and lat- After a stint at the long-gone put it, “not just a big story…a Big er, longer, sometimes nostalgic recol- Globe Story,” he shipped off his material lections. The result is a delight. Magazine, he went to Queen’s Park: first as bureau chief, and then as a the way he had learned was most ef- I first met Norman Webster in the fall columnist. Then China. Then Lon- ficient: on a flight to Shanghai, and of 1973. I had just joined The Globe don—which, in those days, meant then by Air France to Paris and on and Mail, and had been sent—perhaps to Toronto. He then asked the Amer- to learn from the best—to Queen’s those parts of the world that were ican correspondents travelling with Park for a few weeks, where Norman not Asia or the Americas. the team how they were doing it, was the bureau chief. He was furious; This is a collection, not a memoir. It and learned they were sending their he had just spent days following a includes nothing about his time as ed- stuff to Canton, across the border to Liberal leadership candidate around itor-in-chief of The Globe or The Mon- Hong Kong, and then to the US. Nor- northern Ontario, and the story he treal Gazette. But Norman Webster’s
Policy 33 character shines through: his wry of “famous” people is how often beyond the borders marked by her sense of humour, his respect for the their childhoods were marinated in grandmother’s admonition that “All people he writes about, his nuanced unhappiness, loss or failure. The pro- you need, child, are a few social graces insight into their character, his deep cess of transcending these traumatic to see you through life.” historical understanding, his belief anchors and enjoying a productive in bilingualism, his hatred of smok- adulthood usually reflects resilience, The second transformative event was her marriage to her distant cousin ing and separatism, his affection for forbearance and serendipity. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a merger of Montreal, les Canadiens, the Eastern Eleanor Roosevelt was no exception. Hyde Park and Oyster Bay, one family Townships and the monarchy. She emerged triumphantly singu- but different worlds. Much has been As he wrote about the Queen Mother, lar from the insularity of Oyster Bay written about Eleanor’s role in help- he “went to bat for decency, honour, and Edith Wharton’s New York, two ing her resolutely ambitious husband love, family, freedom, royalty and worlds guided by “ought to” rath- when he became the navy’s youngest good cheer.” Plus, of course, hockey er than “want to”. Unless you were assistant secretary, then governor of and clear prose. male, in which case you could usually New York, then president; about her Contributing Writer Graham Fraser do what you wanted to because it was challenging relationship with his ev- spent 19 years at The Globe and quietly tolerated by a social code that er-present mother; about her indis- Mail, in Toronto, Quebec City, Ottawa protected its own from reputational pensable role in his rehabilitation af- and Washington. The author of damage and thrived on the permissive ter his shocking polio diagnosis; about several books, he served as Canada’s air of entitlement. her unquestioning acceptance of the Commissioner of Official Languages bigotries of the day—antisemitism, According to David Michaelis, Elea- (she described Felix Frankfurter as “an from 2006-2016. nor’s latest attentive biographer, the interesting little man, but very Jew”), Oyster Bay Roosevelts had, above all racial segregation, and women’s roles other impulses, “the resolve to trans- (she was originally against women form private misfortune into public having the right to vote); and about well-being”. Throughout her life, both her growing recognition and accep- were her frequent companions. She tance that their marriage was based adored her father, Elliott Roosevelt, more on mutual respect than on ro- brother of the intrepid Theodore, but mantic love. But it remains riveting to despite the adoration he returned, he read about her evolutionary shedding was intermittently present and when of the skin of Wharton’s Brownstone he was, often incapacitated by alco- Society, and blossoming into a na- hol, or distracted by his financial and tional and global leader who shattered extra-marital missteps. Eventually his stereotypes and delivered fairness for forays into disgrace could no longer women, workers, immigrants, minori- be hidden, but no one shared them ties, and children. with Eleanor. With a mother who ignored or humiliated her relentless- t started in earnest in 1917. In her ly, he remained the man she lived to I words “The war was my emancipa- please until he died when she was ten. tion and my education”. And what an emancipation it was! She became She moved to her grandmother’s active in the American Red Cross, house, where she was further trained The New York League of Women Vot- Eleanor in the expectations for “wellborn” ers, and The Women’s City Club of girls of her generation to be “mistress New York as legislative director advo- Roosevelt: From of a household”. She seemed to “need cating for child labour laws, worker’s only to please, and to be good, strong compensation, literacy, and legalized Cloistered Girl and brave for others”, including for birth control for married couples. She her younger brothers. Her nearest got a voice of her own when she be- to Global Rights companions were books and some rel- came chair of the Women’s Division atives who excelled at the lifestyle of of the Democratic Party, broaden- Champion the “idle rich”. Yet her heavy sense of ing her social and religious network. duty remained sturdy, and she coped She supported the League of Nations David Michaelis with her insecurities by making her- and the World Court of Justice, and Eleanor self “more or less invisible”. championed better housing for the poor and aging, help for Southern Simon & Schuster/2020 Two events transformed her. The first tenant farmers, and reforms to work- was Allenswood, a bilingual academy ing hours and wages. Review by outside Paris run by a highly cultured Rosalie Silberman Abella and worldly woman, Marie Souves- She took on Tammany Hall, Bull tre. Souvestre mentored Eleanor, nur- Connor and Father Coughlin. She ’ve always found that one the most tured her confidence, and planted the joined the Washington, D.C. chapter I fascinating aspects of biographies seeds that would grow her aspirations of the NAACP, and opposed segre-
March—April 2021 34 asked him how he felt about her The degree of detail can sometimes contrary stance on some legislation get in the way of the narrative flow, he supported, he said “you go right but it’s worth the effort because by ahead and stand for whatever you the end, all the pieces fit perfectly feel is right.” She had come a long and luminously reveal the astonish- way from his Inauguration Day as ing story of Eleanor Roosevelt’s meta- New York Governor in 1929, when morphosis from a compliant woman she told a reporter: “I don’t exactly of her times into a woman who re- know what is before me, but I ex- shaped them. pect to solve problems as they come along. That has always been my way f all the mesmerizing details and things always get done.” O in the book, one struck a per- Eleanor Roosevelt tours camps of Jewish sonal chord. During the Second Holocaust survivors in 1948, including Stuttgart, She kept getting things done even af- where this faded photo was taken. She was World War, she had “made it her presented by Jacob Silberman, a lawyer and ter her husband died in 1945, partic- mission to save as many Jewish Eu- community leader who passed the family photo ipating, at President Harry Truman’s ropean children as she could”, along on to his daughter Rosalie. Photo courtesy of request, in the creation of the United Rosalie Silberman Abella. with pressuring an unreceptive State Nations, accepting an appointment as Department to expedite 4,000 vis- chair of the UN Human Rights Com- itors’ visas for Jewish refugees in- gated public schools. In 1939, when mission, and reifying the Universal cluding Marc Chagall, Max Ernst, Declaration of Human Rights, becom- the Daughters of the American Rev- Hannah Arendt, André Breton and ing the world’s foremost champion of olution banned the Black contral- Marcel Duchamp. Near the war’s end, human rights. It is hard to argue with to Marian Anderson from giving an on April 16, 1945, the day after Pres- the moniker H. L. Mencken gave her Easter Concert in Constitution Hall, ident Roosevelt died, Edward R. Mur- when he said she was “the most influ- she resigned from their organization row broadcast the first eyewitness ac- ential female ever recorded in Ameri- and invited Anderson to sing at the count of a Nazi concentration camp, can history.” White House for the King and Queen Buchenwald. Neither he, nor Time or of England. She travelled extensively Life magazines which reported sever- across America and visited foreign All the pieces fit al days later from Dachau, identified countries by herself to assess their so- the victims as Jewish. It took Eleanor cial and economic conditions—a first perfectly and Roosevelt in her column, at the end for a president’s wife—and all with luminously reveal the of that month to admonish: “Are our the president’s approval. She trav- astonishing story of Eleanor memories so short that we do not elled so much that a Washington Post recall how in Germany this unparal- headline in 1934 trumpeted: “First Roosevelt’s metamorphosis leled barbarism started by discrimina- Lady Spends Night in White House”. from a compliant woman of tion directed at the Jewish people?” During the Second World War, she vigorously opposed the shameful in- her times into a woman She decided to visit some Displaced ternship of Japanese Americans un- who reshaped them. Persons Camps in Germany to see der Executive Order 9066, warning the state of the Jewish survivors for that: “If we cannot meet the chal- herself. In 1948, she visited the one lenge of really believing in the Bill in Stuttgart, where my father Jacob of Rights and make it a reality for all Silberman, a lawyer, was head of the loyal American citizens, regardless D. P. Camp. He introduced her by of race, creed or color; if we cannot Her private life was complicated. The calling her “the protector of human keep in check anti-Semitism, anti-ra- book extensively chronicles her lov- rights, fighter for freedom, peace and cial feelings, as well as anti-religious ing relationship with the journalist justice” and added: “You, Mrs. Roos- feelings, then we shall have removed Lorena Hicks, her husband’s with evelt, are the representative of a great from the world, the one real hope Lucy Mercer, her familial disappoint- nation, whose victorious army liber- for the future on which all humanity ments, and her omnisciently disap- ated from death the remnants of Eu- must now rely.” proving mother-in-law. Yet none of ropean Jewry and highly contributed it blocked her courage. Brought up to their moral and physical rehabili- he became, as Time magazine not- in a world that embraced the status tation… We are not any longer in a Sed, “a woman of unequaled influ- quo, she embraced change. Trained position of showing you here assets ence, superlative in her own person- to serve her household, she served such as factories, farms, establish- her country instead. Told that women ments and the like. The best we are al right” and, as Michaelis notes, the “advocate for the voiceless”. were silent marital adjuncts, she be- able to produce are these few chil- came her husband’s closest and most dren. They alone are our fortune and When his staff would urgently ask vocal advisor—and the most famous our sole hope for the future”. him to ask her to stop generating feminist in the world. controversy over these issues, the I was one of those children. President shrugged it off, saying it All this and more is chronologically Justice Abella is on the Supreme Court would “blow over”. When Eleanor delineated in this engrossing book. of Canada.
Policy Kelly Sikkema, Unsplash photo 1st Lt. Lauren Warner, Flickr photo
Helping Charities Bring Canadians Together—An Open Letter to Members of Parliament and Senators
Dear MPs and Senators, As you know, the government has implemented the Government of Canada Workplace Cost of eliminating Charitable Campaign, reaching out to 500,000 federal retirees and 280,000 public servants, the capital gains tax asking them to consider donating $130 to charitable organizations to help them deal with the financial challenges of the pandemic. If half of them contributed that amount to their charities of choice, they would receive about $50 million in donations. $ It’s a laudable initiative, but it could be just the beginning, if the government were to follow through by including a measure in the 2021 Budget to remove the capital gains tax 50 MILLION PER YEAR on charitable donations of private company shares and real estate. Long advocated by the charitable sector, this would cost the government only a foregone $50 million a year, while stimulating at least $200 million a year in donations to healthcare, Benefit to educational, arts and cultural, religious and community organizations, creating hope and Canadians in need help where it is much needed and, not least, creating many new jobs along the way. In its important pre-Budget report, Investing in Tomorrow, the Commons Standing Committee on Finance recommends eliminating the capital gains tax on such charitable donations. $ Thousands of charities and millions of Canadians need help more than ever during the 200 pandemic. This isn’t about a tax break for the rich. It’s about enabling Canadian charities to MILLION PER YEAR hire thousands of Canadians and help millions of their fellow Canadians in need. As hospitals and universities would be significant beneficiaries, and the provinces provide healthcare and education, they should be supportive and appreciative. Create hope and help where it is much All stakeholders in our healthcare, social service agencies, universities, arts and cultural needed, and and religious organizations, as well as the millions of Canadians they serve, would be very appreciative of this additional support as a timely reminder that we are, indeed, all in this together. Budget 2021 presents an important opportunity to get this done. Jobs Yours sincerely, IN THE CHARITABLE SECTOR
Donald K. Johnson, O.C., LL.D. Director, Toronto General & Western Hospital Foundation Chair, Vision Campaign, Toronto Western Hospital Member, Advisory Board, Ivey Business School, Western University Chairman Emeritus & Director, Business / Arts Member, 2021 Major Individual Giving Cabinet, United Way Greater Toronto