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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society of the Philippines Ateneo De Manila University Student Research

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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society of the Philippines Ateneo De Manila University Student Research CFA Institute Research Challenge hosted by CFA Society of the Philippines Ateneo de Manila University Student Research Ateneo de Manila University Student Research SM Prime Holdings Expansion built on expertise yields superior growth Philippine Stock Exchange, Ticker: SMPH Financials Sector, Real Estate Industry Recommendation: BUY Price Objective: Php24.70 | Current Price (27 Nov 15): Php21.50 | Upside: 14.9% Premium deserved; issuing a Buy with 14.9% upside Trading Data We issue a Buy recommendation for SM Prime Holdings with a price objective (PO) of Php24.70 indicated by Price (27 Nov 15) 21.50 our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis-based Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation. Our valuation is driven by Price objective 24.70 its malls segment, which accounts for 84% of SMPH’s gross asset value. Our PO implies a 28.2x 2016E P/E; 52-week range Php15.74 – 22.70 above peers (19.8x), the PCOMP Index (21.2x), and its historical mean (27.1x). We believe SMPH merits a Market cap (Php/USD) Php619.92 bn premium due to (1) its market leadership in the malls sector, (2) its aggressive expansion in underpenetrated USD13.16 bn markets, and (3) earnings reliability that underpins an EPS CAGR of 14.9% from 2015-2018E. Shares out. 28.88 bn Avg. Daily Val USD7.11 mn Leading mall developer in a consumption-driven economy Free Float 26.74% SM Prime is the largest mall developer and operator in the Philippines, accounting for over 51% of total leasable Bloomberg SMPH.PM space of the country. It has 55 malls in its Philippine portfolio, covering almost every region in the country. It Reuters SMPH PS operates six out of the ten largest malls in the Philippines. Its established brand equity pulls in the biggest Major Shareholders SMIC (49.60%) retailers as its anchor tenants. SMPH’s malls unit contributed 58% of total revenues in 2014. We consider Sy Family (23.66%) SMPH’s retail exposure, where 75% of mall revenues are driven by a percentage of tenants’ sales, as a proxy for rising consumer spending. Historical Performance rel. PCOMP Index Mall expansion in underpenetrated markets under way 300 Moving forward, we expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 14.8% from 2015-2018E. This will be driven by an aggressive mall expansion program in underpenetrated markets, which are key provincial centers 200 characterized by increasing consumption and low retail penetration rates. It is important to note that 78% of consumption happens outside Metro Manila, and retail space per capita in these areas averages only 0.03 100 sqm, much lower compared to Metro Manila’s 0.21 sqm. SMPH will consolidate its market leadership by 0 bringing its size, scale, and its base of popular tenants to these underserved markets, adding 4-6 malls 01/12/2010 01/12/2011 01/12/2012 01/12/2013 01/12/2014 nationwide per annum. This is significant because, while same-store-sales-growth has remained robust at 7% SMPH PCOMP over the last few years, contributions from new developments have been the primary driver behind SMPH’s strong topline growth. P/E (ttm) rel. PCOMP Index Limited exposure in slowing segments; building on reliable growth 40 As the Philippines is transitioning into a demographic sweet spot and unemployment levels are dropping, the market for low-cost affordable residential units is expected to grow. This benefits SMPH’s residential unit, as it 30 caters exclusively to this market, which is underserved by our estimates. This also limits its exposure to the higher-end segments, characterized by a slowdown in developments and elevated inventory levels. Moreover, 20 the surge in the BPO sector has encouraged major developers to aggressively ramp up office space, which has caused a short-term oversupply, in our view. Focusing its expansion plans on its retail unit, SMPH’s nature as 10 a retail-focused property developer allows it to benefit from growth in consumption, while its nature as a real 0 estate developer in general enables its property values to improve with asset appreciation. Because of its 30/11/2010 30/11/2011 30/11/2012 30/11/2013 30/11/2014 reliable growth, we argue that SMPH is the most strategic and resilient property firm in the Philippines. SMPH P/E (ttm) PCOMP P/E (ttm) Earnings reliability, strong balance sheet, and execution address key risks Key risks for our valuation are (1) sensitivity to a macro slowdown, (2) cyclicality of the residential segment, (3) increasing competition, and (4) delayed execution of mall developments. In mitigating these risks, we believe SMPH’s retail-based property portfolio provides greater earnings reliability in a cyclical sector, with 63% of 2014 revenues coming from recurring income (the highest in the industry). SMPH’s size, scale, and leadership defends itself from competition risk, and its proven track record answers execution risk. Furthermore, factoring in new developments’ immediate contributions to earnings, we project a 2015-2018 core EPS growth of 14.9%, and a Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) growth of 13.9%. These internally generated funds, and an underleveraged position with a total debt/total capital ratio of 41.4% in 2015E will help fund its expansion. Financial Highlights 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenues (Php mns) 59,794 66,240 73,648 87,120 99,468 111,346 Core Net Income (Php mns) 16,726 18,896 21,975 26,031 29,837 33,300 EPS 0.59 0.66 0.74 0.88 1.01 1.12 EPS Change (YoY) 0.3% 12.6% 12.2% 18.5% 14.6% 11.6% DPS 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.31 0.27 0.31 P/E 25.1 25.8 30.0 24.5 21.4 19.2 EV/EBITDA 16.2 17.2 19.1 15.8 13.8 12.1 *Core net income/EPS exclude extraordinary gains 1 Business Description In 1985, SM Prime opened its first mall along North EDSA in Quezon City, a single SM mall with a gross floor Fig 1: SMPH ownership structure area (GFA) of 125,000 sqm. Subsequently. its mall development business grew rapidly, along with the other real estate businesses of the SM Group, justifying the 2013 corporate restructuring that consolidated all of the SM Group’s real estate properties under SMPH. Post-merger, SMPH has transformed into an integrated Parent property developer with direct exposure to mall operations, residential developments, office developments, hotels and convention centers. • Retail (58% of 2014 Revenues): SM Prime is the market leader in mall developments and operations in the country in terms of mall count and leasable space. It has 55 malls around the Retail Property Banking country with over 7.3 mn sqm gross floor area (GFA), or an estimated 3.6 mn sqm gross leasable Source: Company Data area (GLA), comprising over 51% of mall retail space in the country. SMPH also has 6 more malls in China, bringing its total GFA to 8.1 mn sqm. While 40% of its mall space is in Metro Manila, SMPH now has malls in 12 out of 17 regions in the Philippines, and owns 6 of the 10 largest malls. Its Fig 2: Revenues per business segment (2014) malls also draw in a combined foot traffic of 3.7 mn people every day, and hosts over 18,300 4% 3% tenants. • Residential (34% of 2014 Revenues): SM Prime currently has 12 completed residential condominium projects and 14 on-going developments. It has launched over 80,751 condominium 34% units since its inception, and has exposure to two large-scale leisure destinations, including the 40 59% ha Pico de Loro project located in one of the Philippines’ premiere coastlines. • Offices (4% of 2014 Revenues): SM Prime owns over 330,000 sqm GFA of office space which is primarily leased by the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector. It has currently been focused on Malls Residential Commercial Hotels Source: Company Data building around its “E-com” series of office developments inside its Mall of Asia Complex in Pasay City. • Hotels (3% of 2014 Revenues): SM Prime completes its business model by adding hotels and Fig 3: Retail space (malls) market share conventions centers to its already diverse portfolio. Its hotels have a total of 325,000 sqm GFA (or (sqm GLA, 2015E) 1,019 rooms), while its convention centers have a total of 36,000 sqm GLA, adding foot traffic to 12% SMPH’s other properties nearby. 16% SM Investments, the largest conglomerate in the country (USD14.9 bn market cap), is the parent company of 52% the SM Group. It has significant interests in retail, banking, and property (SMPH). Parent SMIC directly owns 20% 49.60% of SMPH. The SM Group’s founder and SMPH’s Chairman Emeritus Henry Sy Sr. sits on the board of SMPH along with his sons, Hans Sy (President), Henry Sy Jr. (Chairman), and Herbert Sy. Each of them have at SM Prime Ayala Land Robinsons Land Others least 20 years of experience in related fields. Adhering to strong corporate governance practices, SMPH has Source: KMC Mag, Company Data, Team Estimates three independent directors, and has received multiple local and international awards for its corporate governance practices as well as its corporate social responsibility efforts (Appendix 3.1-3.3). Industry Overview and Competitive Positioning Malls: A clear leader in Philippine retail Filipinos are natural spenders; consumption expected to remain robust With GDP growing at an average rate of 6.3% for the past 5 years, and by 6.0% as of 3Q15, the Philippines is one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
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