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COMET Partners Proposal COMET Partners Proposal: Development of operational products from the New York State Mesonet to aid forecasts of high-impact weather events by National Weather Service Forecast Offices 1. Project Overview Mesonets consisting of weather stations established to collect data over concentrated areas have been developed in many areas of the United States over the past few decades (Schroeder et al. 2005, McPherson et al. 2007). A primary purpose of these mesonets is to aid forecasters and researchers with diagnosing a wide range of atmospheric phenomena by providing them with a dense network of reliable and highly-accurate weather observations. The construction of the New York State (NYS) Mesonet began in 2015 and was completed April 1st, 2018. Its goal is to provide a high spatial and temporal- resolution network of observations for the state (Brotzge et al, 2016). 126 “standard” stations were installed in New York, with each station measuring temperature (2 and 9 m), relative humidity, wind speed and direction (with redundant sensors), precipitation, solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, snow depth, and soil moisture and temperature at three depths (5, 25, and 50 cm) at 5 minute intervals. Each station is also equipped with a camera. The NYS Mesonet also consists of three additional “sub- networks”: 17 “profiler” stations are outfitted with LIDARs and microwave radiometers to provide vertical profiles of the atmosphere, 20 “snow” stations provide snow-water-equivalent measurements, and 17 “flux” sites measure a wide variety of additional variables such as 4-component radiation fluxes, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and others. The National Weather Service Forecast Offices (NWS WFOs) located at Brookhaven, Albany, Buffalo, and Binghamton, New York and Burlington, Vermont are responsible for producing accurate forecasts, warnings and decision support related to high-impact weather events in NYS. It has long been understood that meteorologists engaged in these endeavors can potentially benefit from having access to high temporal and spatial data sets such as those produced by the NYS Mesonet (Sanders and Doswell, 1995, Bosart 2003). Therefore, meteorologists at the NYS Mesonet and the National Weather Service (NWS) are motivated to work together to find the most effective ways for forecasters to utilize the data. This proposal describes a potential collaborative effort between the NYS Mesonet and the NWS to enhance the usage of data from the mesonet into the NWS forecast, warning and decision support activities. 2. Objectives The objectives of this project are to develop products from data produced by the NYS Mesonet that will aid forecasts, warnings, and decision support from the NWS. These products will be available in real- time with a temporal resolution of approximately 5 minutes. The types of high-impact weather events covered in the proposal are as follows: a) Flash Flooding The NYS Mesonet provides forecasters with real-time measurements of rainfall and soil moisture at 5, 25 and 50 cm depths at 5 minute temporal resolution. Figure 1 gives an example of what this soil moisture data depicts. The relationship between flash flooding and rainfall can vary depending on factors such as topography and antecedent conditions, and is provided to forecasters at WFOs by River Forecast Offices through the dissemination of Flash Flood Guidance. Relationships between rainfall and soil moisture, and between antecedent soil moisture and flash flooding have also been examined. For example, Jessup and DeGaetano (2008) examined a data set of heavy rain events in New York and Pennsylvania and determined that the most significant difference between flash flood vs. non-flood events in their data set was the antecedent soil moisture. Based on findings such as this, it is hypothesized that the soil moisture data provided by the NYS Mesonet could be an invaluable tool for forecasters wishing to diagnose flash flood potential, along with the obvious benefits of the real-time rainfall measurements. However, forecasters at NWS WFOs are not typically well-versed in the use of real-time soil moisture data (B. Westergard, personal communication, March 7, 2019). Therefore, one of the objectives in this project will be to develop a better understanding of the soil moisture data, and how it can be used to diagnose flash flood potential. Research will be conducted on a data set of cases spanning the period 2017 to present (when NYS Mesonet data has been available), to determine the relationship between rainfall and soil moisture, Figure 1: Sample soil moisture percentile plot made by the NYS and the relationship between soil moisture and Mesonet. flash flood occurrence. Once relationships between these factors are determined, graphical products will be developed by the staff at the mesonet to help forecasters to better visualize flash flood potential based on rainfall and soil moisture measurements from the mesonet. b) Freezing Rain The NYS Mesonet provides forecasters with real-time measurements of soil temperature at 5, 25 and 50 cm depths at 5 minute temporal resolution. Additionally, each flux site is equipped with a four- component radiation sensor, which allows the NYS Mesonet to crudely estimate skin temperature using the Stefan-Boltzman law. The NYS Mesonet currently attempts to extrapolate this estimate to all sites using relationships derived automatically between soil temperature, 2 m temperature, solar insolation, (and others) as seen in Figure 2. Recent research has revealed the relationship between the potential for ice accumulation and several factors such as precipitation rate, wind and surface wet-bulb temperature (Sanders and Barjenbrunch, 2016). Forecasts of ice accumulations are important, however perhaps equally important are forecasts of potential impacts from freezing rain. For example, freezing rain will sometimes accumulate on surfaces that result in tree damage and / or power outages while having less impact on road surfaces and transportation. In other cases, freezing rain will have much more impact on travel than on trees and power lines. We are hypothesizing that one of the factors that leads to these variations of impact may be ground temperature, and that soil temperature, 2 m temperature, and flux-estimated skin temperature from the NYS Mesonet may be a good way for forecasters to assess these potential impacts. However, similar to soil moisture, forecasters are not particularly well- versed in evaluating ground temperatures as part of their forecast process, probably due to the fact that this data has not historically been widely-available. Therefore, we propose to examine a data set of cases spanning the last two years to find Figure 2: Sample NYS Mesonet-estimated skin temperature. relationships between ground temperatures Flux site observations (red) are used to estimate all other sites (orange). measured on the mesonet, and impacts from freezing rain as reported in the NWS’s storm data publication. Once these relationships have been determined, graphical products will be developed to help forecasters relate ground temperatures to impacts from freezing rain. c) Severe Convection The NYS Mesonet can provide forecasters with a wide range of meteorological data in real time related to surface temperature, moisture, wind and pressure and as such can help forecasters to diagnose the strength and movement of frontal systems. Previous research has indicated that the occurrence of severe weather is often related directly to the existence, strength and movement of large-scale frontal systems. For example, Wasula et a (2008) examined a high impact severe weather case over eastern New York and western New England and identified a strong gradient of equivalent potential across the region prior to the event. Evans (2010) found that the strength and speed of the eastward progression of large-scale forcing for upward vertical motion is critical for determining the magnitude of low-CAPE high shear convective events in New York and Pennsylvania. Lombardo and Colle (2011) also found direct relationships between characteristics of severe weather-producing storms and their spatial relationship to frontal systems. More recently, Stuart and Cebulko (2018) examined the role of low-level forcing in cases of significant severe Figure 3: Example NYS Mesonet theta-e, 10 m wind, and NEXRAD weather outbreaks in the eastern U.S., and radar data preceding a significant severe weather outbreak. determined that the strength of the low-level frontal zone can play a critical role in determining the magnitude of severe convective events. Given that data from the NYS Mesonet is well- suited for forecasters who wish to diagnose the strength and movement of frontal systems, we hypothesize that data from the NYS Mesonet can help forecasters anticipate the magnitude of severe convective events by aiding with the diagnosis of frontal systems. We propose to examine a data set of convective cases spanning the last two years, examining characteristics of any associated low-level frontal zones. Fronts can be characterized by factors such as the gradient of equivalent potential temperature across the frontal zone (as shown in Figure 3), the speed of movement of the front, and mean sea-level pressure changes ahead of and behind the front. The high spatial- and temporal- resolution of the mesonet data will allow us to examine these factors in greater detail than what has been possible previously in this area. Once these relationships are better understood, graphical products can be generated by NYS Mesonet staff that will help forecasters to better anticipate the magnitude of convective events based on the characteristics of associated frontal systems. 3. Tasks Our research group will divide the work for this project into three sub-projects, with each sub-project consisting of work related to one of the three high-impact weather event types listed in the objectives (flash flooding, freezing rain, and severe weather). Each of these sub-projects will have a collaborative team consisting of a NYS Mesonet employee and one or two NWS forecasters, along with undergraduate students from the State University of New York at Albany.
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