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Economic Benefits of Peer- To-Peer Transport Services

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Economic Benefits of Peer- To-Peer Transport Services Economic benefits of peer- to-peer transport services Uber 25 August 2015 Economic benefits of peer-to-peer transport services Authors: Amanda Stefansdotter Carl von Utfall Danielsson Dr Claus Kastberg Nielsen Dr Eva Rytter Sunesen Economic benefits of peer-to-peer transport services Table of contents Executive summary 3 1 Introduction: Urban growth and pressured infrastructure creates a need for new solutions 5 2 Immediate effects: More efficient utilisation of capital and slightly higher traffic volumes 11 3 Induced effects: Less car ownership and lower traffic volumes 20 4 Economic effects: Time savings and increased productivity 27 5 Employment effects: Commercialised driving and increased labour supply 33 6 Environmental effects: Lower emissions and freed up space 36 References 40 Economic benefits of peer-to-peer transport services Economic benefits of peer-to-peer transport services Executive summary Copenhagen Economics has been commissioned by Uber to estimate the economic impact of having a well-functioning peer-to-peer transport service in the Nordics within a Mobil- ity-as-a-Service concept, using Stockholm as a case study. Peer-to-peer transport services allow citizens (peers) to provide on-demand transport to other citizens (peers) using their personal vehicles. The idea behind the Mobility-as-a-Service concept is to allow citizens of a city to purchase their preferred choice of transport using a mix of public (subway, train or bus) and private (taxi, car, bike) transportation providers. In the ultimate case, citizens can buy all their transport services from mobility providers. We conclude that a well-functioning peer-to-peer transport service, within a Mobility-as- a-Service concept, is likely to create significant economic benefits by changing the overall composition of demand for transport and thereby influencing traffic flows. In ad- dition, such a system comes with very low investment costs, unlike many infrastructure projects with similar effects. Due to their low costs and ease of use, peer-to-peer transport services are likely to imme- diately attract demand from other types of transport, and to induce car owners to give up car ownership, thereby reducing the use of private cars. Under conservative assumptions, the combined effect reduces the number of daily car trips by up to 37,000 trips (3 per cent of total) and leads to a reduction of the total number of active cars in Stockholm by up to 18,000 (5 per cent of total). The former effect lowers traffic intensity and con- gestion, which in turn decreases time spent in traffic, creating a total value for society of up to SEK 870 million per year. For example, a commuter travelling by car would save up to a full working day per year previously spent waiting in traffic. An effective peer-to-peer transport service therefore generates comparable reductions in travel time as Förbifart Stockholm, a large infrastructure investment project, but at a significantly lower price tag. Förbifart Stockholm is expected to generate time savings at a value of around SEK 600 million per year at a cost of nearly SEK 30 billion. The ef- fects are also comparable to those of Stockholmsförsöket, the system of conges- tion charges in Stockholm city. Stockholmsförsöket is (also) expected to generate time savings of around SEK 600 million, but levies SEK 750 million per year in congestion charges on drivers. Well-functioning peer-to-peer transport services are also likely to create new jobs. In the short run, a peer-to-peer service creates almost 3,000 full-time jobs, as citizens who normally drive their own car shift to commercial peer-to-peer transport. The new jobs re- duce unemployment if the jobs are filled by persons having difficulties finding employ- ment elsewhere. In the long run, labour supply increases for two reasons. First, some citi- zens with full-time jobs drive peer-to-peer during their spare time, increasing their total labour supply. Second, the lower traffic intensity reduces congestion and generates time savings, some of which will be spent working. Overall, a well-functioning peer-to-peer transport service can in the long run sustain almost 1,000 new full-time jobs in 3 Economic benefits of peer-to-peer transport services Stockholm. Similar effects can be expected in the other Nordic capitals Oslo, Copenha- gen and Helsinki, at a scale proportional to their number of inhabitants relative to Stock- holm. Finally, well-functioning peer-to-peer transport services are likely to have an impact on the environment, in particular emissions and land use. Emissions in the form of particle and CO2 pollution decrease when the number of vehicle trips declines, and since vehicles in the peer-to-peer fleet are likely to be newer models (with lower emissions) than an av- erage private vehicle. We estimate, conservatively, that emissions in Stockholm decrease, at an economic value of up to SEK 200 million. The improved utilisation of vehicles will also reduce the demand for parking in the city centre. This will free up space in streets, which can used for other transport purposes. As an example, we estimate that the space made available from a peer-to-peer could make room for 63 km of new bike lanes. In addition, it would become easier and less costly to remove snow in Nordic capi- tals. The abovementioned effects occur since citizens adjust their transport demand in the presence of peer-to-peer car transport services. Peer-to-peer transport is attractive to citi- zens since they imply low prices and low transaction costs.1 Peer-to-peer fares are likely to be 40 to 60 per cent lower than a similar ride in a taxi. The low costs are made possible by a better utilisation of existing private cars through rides- haring. Ridesharing enables private citizens to offer a ride against a fare to other citizens with a transport demand, and enables private citizens in real time to offer rides for a (lower) fare to other independent citizens who need to go in the same direction. Peer-to-peer transport implies low transactions costs because riders and passengers are connected using GPS-based apps. Such apps allow citizens to share their identity, convey their position, and manage payments, thus facilitating a real-time connection between people looking for a ride with those who have a spare seat. These features also reduce the risk normally associated with the taxi industry by letting both parties know in advance who are involved in the transaction and what the price will be. These features make peer- to-peer transport feasible and safe, both for drivers and passengers.2 1 A well-functioning peer-to-peer transport service within a Maas concept also implies more choice for passengers. More choice is generated since passengers can chose transport services of different quality, according to their preferences. Choices can include different kinds of carpooling and carsharing options, or varying levels of service quality of rides. Greater choice and diversity enables citizens to get a better match with their preferences and stimulates demand. 2 We assume that peer-to-peer transport services assure that drivers are qualified, that cars are safe, and that passengers are covered by adequate insurance. 4 Economic benefits of peer-to-peer transport services Chapter 1 1 Introduction: Urban growth and pressured infrastructure creates a need for new solutions Metropolitan areas have long attracted citizens who enjoy the benefits of jobs, education, culture, and social life. Stockholm is not an exception. Each year Stockholm welcomes 36,000 new citizens, and the population of Greater Stockholm is expected to exceed 2.5 million by 2030.3 The growing number of new residents will boost the strong economy of Stockholm and reinforce its position as a centre of population and economic activity in Sweden.4 The urban growth creates an increasingly mounting need for basic services such as hous- ing and transport. Housing supply in Stockholm has long fallen short of demand, and the need for transport is expected to do the same: Swedish authorities expect demand for road transport to increase by more than three times (80 per cent) the population growth (25 per cent) by the end of 2030.5 The surge in demand for transport will inevitably create problems for both citizens and businesses in Stockholm. Stockholm has significant congestion and expensive public transport There is currently a large gap between the demand for transport and the available infra- structure in Stockholm. Virtually all roads into the city centre are congested in the morn- ing, with traffic often coming to complete standstills. A citizen with a daily 30-minute commute (each way) loses more than two working weeks per year in delays. At its current pace, this number will increase to more than four weeks by 2030.6 Lack of parking space wastes significant amounts of time for citizens: one study found that as much as 30 per cent of city-centre traffic is trying to find a parking space at any given time.7 The con- gested Stockholm traffic means that residents have less time for leisure, work and shop- ping, and that businesses are less productive. The City of Stockholm is actively trying to close the gap between transport demand and supply by investing in large infrastructure projects aimed at improving both public and private transport. An example is Trafiksatsning Stockholm: a 112 billion SEK (11.7 billion EUR), multi-modal programme that will create more bus lanes, set up new train lines (e.g. Citybanan), build new roads (e.g. Norra Länken), and reserve more urban space for 3 Stockholms Handelskammare (2015). 4 Half the Swedish population growth until 2045 takes place in Greater Stockholm.
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