60 MINUTES/VANITY FAIR POLL September 6-8, 2010 DRAFT • Which one of the following would be most likely to cause you to support a U.S. war with Iran? 1. If Iran tests a nuclear bomb, or 2. If Iran attacks Israel, or 3. If Iran attacks the U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf, or 4. Only if Iran attacks U.S. soil, or 5. Would you never support a war with Iran? Testing a nuclear bomb would not justify war with Iran. Although former President Bush once warned that a nuclear-armed Iran could launch World W ar III, just one in 10 Americans think the testing of a nuclear bomb by Iran would constitute just cause for supporting a war between the U.S. and that country. Likewise, just one in 10 Americans would support a war with Iran if it attacked Israel. One in four would support war if Iran attacked the U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf, and another one in four would support war only if Iran attacked U.S. soil. Still, one in four says they would never support a war with Iran. Which Would Cause You to Support a War with Iran? Only if Iran attacks U.S. soil 25% If Iran attacks the U.S. fleet 25 If Iran tests a nuclear bomb 11 If Iran attacks Israel 10 Nothing 24 • Which modern presidential library would you most like to visit? 1. George W. Bush's, or 2. Bill Clinton's, or 3. George H. W. Bush's, or 4. Ronald Reagan's, or 5. Jimmy Carter's, or 6. Gerald Ford's, or 7. Richard Nixon's? Presidential Libraries: Republicans like Reagan and Democrats like Clinton. Americans are divided as to who’s presidential library they’d most like to visit, but it comes down to two main choices: 31% would visit Ronald Reagan’s presidential library while 31% choose Bill Clinton’s. Among a list of recent presidents going back to seven presidencies, Jimmy Carter comes in a distant second at 10%, followed by George W. Bush (6%), Richard Nixon (5%), Gerald Ford (3%), and George H. W. Bush (2%). Not surprisingly, there are large partisan differences in which library Americans choose to visit. Most Republicans (55%) choose Reagan, while nearly half of Democrats (48%) choose Clinton. Independents are divided. Who’s Presidential Library Would You Most to Visit? Total Reps Dems inds Ronald Reagan’s 31% 55% 15% 32% Bill Clinton’s 31 7 48 31 Jimmy Carter’s 10 4 17 8 George W. Bush’s 6 14 1 4 Richard Nixon’s 5 7 6 3 Gerald Ford’s 3 2 3 3 George H. W. Bush’s 2 5 0 3 • Who do you agree with more when it comes to the controversy over building an Islamic cultural center and prayer room two blocks from Ground Zero in New York City -- 1. The Muslim developer, because he has every right to build there if he wants to, or 2. His opponents, because it's disrespectful to the memories of those who died at Ground Zero? Two in three Americans side against the Muslim developer trying to build an Islamic cultural center and prayer room near Ground Zero. 63% of Americans are more in agreement with the opponents of those building an Islamic cultural center two blocks from Ground Zero, feeling that it is disrespectful to the memories of those who died there in the September 11th, 2001 attacks, while just 30% say they agree more with the Muslim developer. While Americans across the board tend to side with the opponents of the Islamic center, Republicans are particularly likely to do so. Just 14% of Republicans agree more with the Muslim developer, compared to 39% of Democrats and 31% of independents. Who do you Agree with More in the Islamic Cultural Center Debate Near Ground Zero? Total Reps Dems inds The Muslim developer 30% 14% 39% 31% His opponents 63 81 56 57 • Which of the following European traditions should America consider adopting? 1. Having a royal family, or 2. Afternoon siestas, or 3. Topless beaches, or 4. Longer summer vacations, or 5. Extra-marital affairs? Many Americans want those longer summer vacations that Europeans have. When asked to choose from a list which European tradition America should consider adopting, longer summer vacations is the clear favorite. 39% choose it, far ahead of afternoon siestas (15%), topless beaches (9%), having a royal family (6%), and extra-marital affairs (1%). Still, 23% volunteer that they would not choose any of these. Men and women agree that more vacation time is their top choice, but women are more likely to choose afternoon siestas (18%) and men are more inclined towards topless beaches (17%). Which European Tradition Should America Consider? Total Me n W omen Long summer vacations 39% 37% 41% Afternoon siestas 15 11 18 Topless beaches 9 17 2 A royal family 6 5 7 Extra-marital affairs 1 0 3 None of these (vol.) 23 23 23 • How much does seeing calorie counts on restaurant menus affect your eating habits -- a lot, some, not much or not at all? Women pay attention to calorie counts at restaurants far more than men. Nearly half of all Americans – 48% - say seeing calorie counts on restaurant menus affects their eating habits, including 25% who say it affects them a lot. 49% say seeing these counts does not affect them much or at all. Women are far more likely to say they pay attention to calorie counts on menus than men. 58% of women say such calorie counts affect their eating habits at least somewhat – including a third who say they affect them a lot – while six in 10 men say those counts don’t affect their eating habits much or at all. How Much Do Calorie Counts on Restaurant Menus Affect You? Total Me n W omen A lot 25% 18% 33% Some 23 21 25 Not much/not at all 49 59 39 • Which one of these do you consider your biggest waste of time? 1. Social networking on sites like Facebook, or 2. Watching television, or 3. Reading, or 4. Shopping, or 5. Fantasy sports, or 6.Your job? Americans think social networking is a bigger time-waster than fantasy sports or watching T.V. Facebook may boast 500 million members, but 36% of Americans pick it as their biggest waste of time from a list that includes fantasy sports (25%), watching television (23%), shopping (9%), reading (2%), and their job (2%). What’s Your Biggest Waste of Time? Social Networking 36% Fantasy sports 25 Watching television 23 Shopping 9 Reading 2 Your job 2 • If same sex couples are allowed to marry, do you think they will divorce at a higher rate than heterosexual couples, at a lower rate, or do you think they will divorce at the same rate as heterosexual couples? Most Americans think same-sex marriages would be just like heterosexual marriages – at least when it comes to divorce. Americans may be divided over whether same-sex couples should be treated the same as heterosexual couples when it comes to marriage, but most do agree that they would be the same when it comes to divorce. 53% of Americans think same-sex couples would divorce at the same rate as heterosexual couples if they are allowed to marry, while 15% think they would divorce at a higher rate and 13% think they would divorce at a lower rate. Younger Americans are more inclined to see both groups as the same when it comes to divorce than are older Americans. 59% of Americans under 45 think there would be no difference in the divorce rate between same-sex and heterosexual marriages, while just 45% of those over 65 agree. Older Americans are more likely to think same-sex couples will divorce at a higher rate. Compared to Heterosexual Couples, Would Same-Sex Couples Divorce at…? Total 18-44 45-64 65+ A higher rate 15% 12% 17% 24% Lower rate 13 14 14 7 No difference 54 59 50 45 • Which one of the following will most likely eventually bring humankind to an end? 1. Global warming, or 2. An incurable disease, or 3. Nuclear war, or 4. A genetic accident, or 5. An asteroid, or 6. None of these, we are here to stay. 28% think nuclear war will end humankind, but 34% think we’re here to stay. When asked to choose among a list of Armageddon-causing disasters which will most likely bring humankind to an end, nuclear war comes in first (28%), followed by global warming (13%), an incurable disease (10%), an asteroid (7%), or some sort of genetic accident (2%). Still, 34% don’t think any of these will do us in. Americans over 45 – who might be more likely to have lived through and remember the Cold War – have larger lingering fears of nuclear war: 33% of those over 45 choose it as most likely to end humankind compared with 24% of younger Americans. Americans under 45 are more likely to pick global warming (18%) than older Americans (8%). Which Will Bring an End to Humankind? Total 18-44 45+ Nuclear War 28% 24% 33% Global Warming 13 18 8 Incurable disease 10 10 9 Asteroid 7 9 6 Genetic Accident 2 3 2 None of these 34 33 35 • Currently, top college athletes are not paid. Do you think they should receive salaries, or not? Tickets to see the top rivalries among college football teams may go for hundreds of dollars on ticket brokerage sites, but most Americans don’t think the athletes who compete in these games should be able to cash in.