Dr DENNIS HULME
[email protected] +612 9377 1500 www.taylorcollison.com.au Immutep (IMM) 22 April 2020 Speculative Investment Leading not LAGging Recommendation: Outperform Summary (AUD) Our View Market Capitalisation $59M Immutep is developing therapies based on LAG-3 through in-house programs Share price $0.15 and licensing deals with big pharma. Its share price fell last month when the 52 week low $0.11 progression free survival benefit from adding its antigen presenting cell activator 52 week high $0.49 ‘efti’ to chemo in the AIPAC Phase IIb breast cancer study failed to reach Cash as at 31 March 2020 $16.1m statistical significance. However, the higher tumour response rate in AIPAC (48% vs 38%) indicates that efti activates the immune system. We view this as a strong positive indicator for the continued success of ongoing studies of efti plus Share price graph (AUD) the immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) Keytruda and Bavencio – response rates 0.500.60 IMM CGSASX Small Ords for melanoma, lung and head and neck cancers have been at least 50% higher 0.45 than the rates reported for Keytruda alone. ICI combos are where the real value 0.50 0.40 in efti lies, in our view. IMM’s value is further supported by Phase II LAG-3 0.35 programs out-licensed to Novartis and GSK. We initiate coverage with a risk 0.40 0.30 adjusted DCF valuation of A$327m or $0.53/sh fully diluted ($0.83/sh undiluted). 0.250.30 Key Points 0.20 0.20 0.15 Efti plus chemo not sufficiently active in metastatic breast cancer – 0.10 Immutep’s lead in-house product, efti, delivered only modest, non-significant 0.10 0.05 improvements in tumour response rates and progression free survival when to 0.00 chemotherapy in breast cancer patients in AIPAC.