SAS/STAT® 13.2 User’S Guide the REG Procedure This Document Is an Individual Chapter from SAS/STAT® 13.2 User’S Guide
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Power Comparisons of Five Most Commonly Used Autocorrelation Tests
Pak.j.stat.oper.res. Vol.16 No. 1 2020 pp119-130 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18187/pjsor.v16i1.2691 Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research Power Comparisons of Five Most Commonly Used Autocorrelation Tests Stanislaus S. Uyanto School of Economics and Business, Atma Jaya Catholic University of Indonesia, [email protected] Abstract In regression analysis, autocorrelation of the error terms violates the ordinary least squares assumption that the error terms are uncorrelated. The consequence is that the estimates of coefficients and their standard errors will be wrong if the autocorrelation is ignored. There are many tests for autocorrelation, we want to know which test is more powerful. We use Monte Carlo methods to compare the power of five most commonly used tests for autocorrelation, namely Durbin-Watson, Breusch-Godfrey, Box–Pierce, Ljung Box, and Runs tests in two different linear regression models. The results indicate the Durbin-Watson test performs better in the regression model without lagged dependent variable, although the advantage over the other tests reduce with increasing autocorrelation and sample sizes. For the model with lagged dependent variable, the Breusch-Godfrey test is generally superior to the other tests. Key Words: Correlated error terms; Ordinary least squares assumption; Residuals; Regression diagnostic; Lagged dependent variable. Mathematical Subject Classification: 62J05; 62J20. 1. Introduction An important assumption of the classical linear regression model states that there is no autocorrelation in the error terms. Autocorrelation of the error terms violates the ordinary least squares assumption that the error terms are uncorrelated, meaning that the Gauss Markov theorem (Plackett, 1949, 1950; Greene, 2018) does not apply, and that ordinary least squares estimators are no longer the best linear unbiased estimators. -
Chapter 4: Model Adequacy Checking
Chapter 4: Model Adequacy Checking In this chapter, we discuss some introductory aspect of model adequacy checking, including: • Residual Analysis, • Residual plots, • Detection and treatment of outliers, • The PRESS statistic • Testing for lack of fit. The major assumptions that we have made in regression analysis are: • The relationship between the response Y and the regressors is linear, at least approximately. • The error term ε has zero mean. • The error term ε has constant varianceσ 2 . • The errors are uncorrelated. • The errors are normally distributed. Assumptions 4 and 5 together imply that the errors are independent. Recall that assumption 5 is required for hypothesis testing and interval estimation. Residual Analysis: The residuals , , , have the following important properties: e1 e2 L en (a) The mean of is 0. ei (b) The estimate of population variance computed from the n residuals is: n n 2 2 ∑()ei−e ∑ei ) 2 = i=1 = i=1 = SS Re s = σ n − p n − p n − p MS Re s (c) Since the sum of is zero, they are not independent. However, if the number of ei residuals ( n ) is large relative to the number of parameters ( p ), the dependency effect can be ignored in an analysis of residuals. Standardized Residual: The quantity = ei ,i = 1,2, , n , is called d i L MS Re s standardized residual. The standardized residuals have mean zero and approximately unit variance. A large standardized residual ( > 3 ) potentially indicates an outlier. d i Recall that e = (I − H )Y = (I − H )(X β + ε )= (I − H )ε Therefore, / Var()e = var[]()I − H ε = (I − H )var(ε )(I −H ) = σ 2 ()I − H . -
Multiple Regression
ICPSR Blalock Lectures, 2003 Bootstrap Resampling Robert Stine Lecture 4 Multiple Regression Review from Lecture 3 Review questions from syllabus - Questions about underlying theory - Math and notation handout from first class Review resampling in simple regression - Regression diagnostics - Smoothing methods (modern regr) Methods of resampling – which to use? Today Multiple regression - Leverage, influence, and diagnostic plots - Collinearity Resampling in multiple regression - Ratios of coefficients - Differences of two coefficients - Robust regression Yes! More t-shirts! Bootstrap Resampling Multiple Regression Lecture 4 ICPSR 2003 2 Locating a Maximum Polynomial regression Why bootstrap in least squares regression? Question What amount of preparation (in hours) maximizes the average test score? Quadmax.dat Constructed data for this example Results of fitting a quadratic Scatterplot with added quadratic fit (or smooth) 0 5 10 15 20 HOURS Least squares regression of the model Y = a + b X + c X2 + e gives the estimates a = 136 b= 89.2 c = –4.60 So, where’s the maximum and what’s its CI? Bootstrap Resampling Multiple Regression Lecture 4 ICPSR 2003 3 Inference for maximum Position of the peak The maximum occurs where the derivative of the fit is zero. Write the fit as f(x) = a + b x + c x2 and then take the derivative, f’(x) = b + 2cx Solving f’(x*) = 0 for x* gives b x* = – 2c ≈ –89.2/(2)(–4.6)= 9.7 Questions - What is the standard error of x*? - What is the 95% confidence interval? - Is the estimate biased? Bootstrap Resampling Multiple Regression Lecture 4 ICPSR 2003 4 Bootstrap Results for Max Location Standard error and confidence intervals (B=2000) Standard error is slightly smaller with fixed resampling (no surprise)… Observation resampling SE* = 0.185 Fixed resampling SE* = 0.174 Both 95% intervals are [9.4, 10] Bootstrap distribution The kernel looks pretty normal. -
Outlier Detection and Influence Diagnostics in Network Meta- Analysis
Outlier detection and influence diagnostics in network meta- analysis Hisashi Noma, PhD* Department of Data Science, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2520-9949 Masahiko Gosho, PhD Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan Ryota Ishii, MS Biostatistics Unit, Clinical and Translational Research Center, Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan Koji Oba, PhD Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Information Studies, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Toshi A. Furukawa, MD, PhD Departments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan *Corresponding author: Hisashi Noma Department of Data Science, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan TEL: +81-50-5533-8440 e-mail: [email protected] Abstract Network meta-analysis has been gaining prominence as an evidence synthesis method that enables the comprehensive synthesis and simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments. In many network meta-analyses, some of the constituent studies may have markedly different characteristics from the others, and may be influential enough to change the overall results. The inclusion of these “outlying” studies might lead to biases, yielding misleading results. In this article, we propose effective methods for detecting outlying and influential studies in a frequentist framework. In particular, we propose suitable influence measures for network meta-analysis models that involve missing outcomes and adjust the degree of freedoms appropriately. We propose three influential measures by a leave-one-trial-out cross-validation scheme: (1) comparison-specific studentized residual, (2) relative change measure for covariance matrix of the comparative effectiveness parameters, (3) relative change measure for heterogeneity covariance matrix. -
Residuals, Part II
Biostatistics 650 Mon, November 5 2001 Residuals, Part II Key terms External Studentization Outliers Added Variable Plot — Partial Regression Plot Partial Residual Plot — Component Plus Residual Plot Key ideas/results ¢ 1. An external estimate of ¡ comes from refitting the model without observation . Amazingly, it has an easy formula: £ ¦!¦ ¦ £¥¤§¦©¨ "# 2. Externally Studentized Residuals $ ¦ ¦©¨ ¦!¦)( £¥¤§¦&% ' Ordinary residuals standardized with £*¤§¦ . Also known as R-Student. 3. Residual Taxonomy Names Definition Distribution ¦!¦ ¦+¨-,¥¦ ,0¦ 1 Ordinary ¡ 5 /. &243 ¦768¤§¦©¨ ¦ ¦!¦ 1 ¦!¦ PRESS ¡ &243 9' 5 $ Studentized ¦©¨ ¦ £ ¦!¦ ¤0> % = Internally Studentized : ;<; $ $ Externally Studentized ¦+¨ ¦ £?¤§¦ ¦!¦ ¤0>¤A@ % R-Student = 4. Outliers are unusually large observations, due to an unmodeled shift or an (unmodeled) increase in variance. 5. Outliers are not necessarily bad points; they simply are not consistent with your model. They may posses valuable information about the inadequacies of your model. 1 PRESS Residuals & Studentized Residuals Recall that the PRESS residual has a easy computation form ¦ ¦©¨ PRESS ¦!¦ ( ¦!¦ It’s easy to show that this has variance ¡ , and hence a standardized PRESS residual is 9 ¦ ¦ ¦!¦ ¦ PRESS ¨ ¨ ¨ ¦ : £ ¦!¦ £ ¦!¦ £ ¦ ¦ % % % ' When we standardize a PRESS residual we get the studentized residual! This is very informa- ,¥¦ ¦ tive. We understand the PRESS residual to be the residual at ¦ if we had omitted from the 3 model. However, after adjusting for it’s variance, we get the same thing as a studentized residual. Hence the standardized residual can be interpreted as a standardized PRESS residual. Internal vs External Studentization ,*¦ ¦ The PRESS residuals remove the impact of point ¦ on the fit at . But the studentized 3 ¢ ¦ ¨ ¦ £?% ¦!¦ £ residual : can be corrupted by point by way of ; a large outlier will inflate the residual mean square, and hence £ . -
Chapter 39 Fit Analyses
Chapter 39 Fit Analyses Chapter Table of Contents STATISTICAL MODELS ............................568 LINEAR MODELS ...............................569 GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS .....................572 The Exponential Family of Distributions ....................572 LinkFunction..................................573 The Likelihood Function and Maximum-Likelihood Estimation . .....574 ScaleParameter.................................576 Goodness of Fit .................................576 Quasi-Likelihood Functions ..........................577 NONPARAMETRIC SMOOTHERS ......................580 SmootherDegreesofFreedom.........................581 SmootherGeneralizedCrossValidation....................582 VARIABLES ...................................583 METHOD .....................................585 OUTPUT .....................................587 TABLES ......................................590 ModelInformation...............................590 ModelEquation.................................590 X’X Matrix . .................................591 SummaryofFitforLinearModels.......................592 SummaryofFitforGeneralizedLinearModels................593 AnalysisofVarianceforLinearModels....................594 AnalysisofDevianceforGeneralizedLinearModels.............595 TypeITests...................................595 TypeIIITests..................................597 ParameterEstimatesforLinearModels....................599 ParameterEstimatesforGeneralizedLinearModels..............601 C.I.forParameters...............................602 Collinearity -
Regression Diagnostics and Model Selection
Regression diagnostics and model selection MS-C2128 Prediction and Time Series Analysis Fall term 2020 MS-C2128 Prediction and Time Series Analysis Regression diagnostics and model selection Week 2: Regression diagnostics and model selection 1 Regression diagnostics 2 Model selection MS-C2128 Prediction and Time Series Analysis Regression diagnostics and model selection Content 1 Regression diagnostics 2 Model selection MS-C2128 Prediction and Time Series Analysis Regression diagnostics and model selection Regression diagnostics Questions: Does the model describe the dependence between the response variable and the explanatory variables well 1 contextually? 2 statistically? A good model describes the dependencies as well as possible. Assessment of the goodness of a regression model is called regression diagnostics. Regression diagnostics tools: graphics diagnostic statistics diagnostic tests MS-C2128 Prediction and Time Series Analysis Regression diagnostics and model selection Regression model selection In regression modeling, one has to select 1 the response variable(s) and the explanatory variables, 2 the functional form and the parameters of the model, 3 and the assumptions on the residuals. Remark The first two points are related to defining the model part and the last point is related to the residuals. These points are not independent of each other! MS-C2128 Prediction and Time Series Analysis Regression diagnostics and model selection Problems in defining the model part (i) Linear model is applied even though the dependence between the response variable and the explanatory variables is non-linear. (ii) Too many or too few explanatory variables are chosen. (iii) It is assumed that the model parameters are constants even though the assumption does not hold. -
Linear Regression Diagnostics*
LIBRARY OF THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WORKING PAPER ALFRED P. SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT LINEAR REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS* Soy E. Welsch and Edwin Kuh Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER Computer Research Center WP 923-77 April 1977 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139 ^ou to divest? access to expanded sub-regional markets possibility of royalty payments to parent access to local long term capital advantages given to a SAICA (i.e., reduce LINEAR REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS^ Roy E. Welsch and Edwin Kuh Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER Computer Research Center WP 923-77 April 1977 *Me are indebted to the National Science Foundation for supporting this research under Grant SOC76-143II to the NBER Computer Research Center. - , ABSTFACT This paper atxeT.pts to provide the user of linear multiple regression with a batter;/ of iiagncstic tools to determine which, if any, data points have high leverage or irifluerice on the estimation process and how these pcssidly iiscrepar.t iata points -differ from the patterns set by the majority of the data. Tr.e point of viev; taken is that when diagnostics indicate the presence of anomolous data, the choice is open as to whether these data are in fact -unus-ual and helprul, or possioly hannful and thus in need of modifica- tions or deletion. The methodology/ developed depends on differences, derivatives, and decompositions of basic re:gressicn statistics. Th.ere is also a discussion of hov; these tecr-niques can be used with robust and ridge estimators, r^i exarripls is given showing the use of diagnostic methods in the estimation of a cross cou.ntr>' savir.gs rate model. -
Studentized Residuals
CHECKING ASSUMPTIONS/CONDITIONS AND FIXING PROBLEMS Recall, linear model is: YXiii01 where we assume: E{ε} = 0, Variance of the “errors” = σ2{ε} = σ2, same value at any X Sometimes assume errors are normally distributed (“normal errors” model). ˆ After we fit the model using data, the residuals eYYiii will be useful for checking the assumptions and conditions. But what is a large residual? If discussing GPA, 0.5 could be large but if discussion SAT scores (possible scores of 200 to 800), 0.5 would be tiny. Need to create equivalent of a z-score. Recall estimate of σ is sMSE * e i e i “Semi-studentized” residuals (p. 103) MSE Note these are called standardized residuals in R. Later, will learn another version, which R calls studentized residuals. Assumptions in the Normal Linear Regression Model A1: There is a linear relationship between X and Y. A2: The error terms (and thus the Y’s at each X) have constant variance. A3: The error terms are independent. A4: The error terms (and thus the Y’s at each X) are normally distributed. Note: In practice, we are looking for a fairly symmetric distribution with no major outliers. Other things to check (Questions to ask): Q5: Are there any major outliers in the data (X, or combination of (X,Y))? Q6: Are there other possible predictors that should be included in the model? Applet for illustrating the effect of outliers on the regression line and correlation: http://illuminations.nctm.org/LessonDetail.aspx?ID=L455 Useful Plots for Checking Assumptions and Answering These Questions Reminders: ˆ Residual -
Outlier Detection Based on Robust Parameter Estimates
International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 12, Number 23 (2017) pp.13429-13434 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com Outlier Detection based on Robust Parameter Estimates Nor Azlida Aleng1, Nyi Nyi Naing2, Norizan Mohamed3 and Kasypi Mokhtar4 1,3 School of Informatics and Applied Mathematics, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. 2 Institute for Community (Health) Development (i-CODE), Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Gong Badak Campus, 21300 Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia. 4 School of Maritime Business and Management, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. Orcid; 0000-0003-1111-3388 Abstract evidence that the outliers can lead to model misspecification, incorrect analysis result and can make all estimation procedures Outliers can influence the analysis of data in various different meaningless, (Rousseeuw and Leroy, 1987; Alma, 2011; ways. The outliers can lead to model misspecification, incorrect Zimmerman, 1994, 1995, 1998). Outliers in the response analysis results and can make all estimation procedures variable represent model failure. Outliers in the regressor meaningless. In regression analysis, ordinary least square variable values are extreme in X-space are called leverage estimation is most frequently used for estimation of the points. parameters in the model. Unfortunately, this estimator is sensitive to outliers. Thus, in this paper we proposed some Rousseeuw and Lorey (1987) defined that outliers in three statistics for detection of outliers based on robust estimation, types; 1) vertical outliers, 2) bad leverage point, 3) good namely least trimmed squares (LTS). A simulation study was leverage point. Vertical outlier is an observation that has performed to prove that the alternative approach gives a better influence on the error term of y-dimension (response) but is results than OLS estimation to identify outliers. -
Econometrics Streamlined, Applied and E-Aware
Econometrics Streamlined, Applied and e-Aware Francis X. Diebold University of Pennsylvania Edition 2014 Version Thursday 31st July, 2014 Econometrics Econometrics Streamlined, Applied and e-Aware Francis X. Diebold Copyright c 2013 onward, by Francis X. Diebold. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. (Briefly: I retain copyright, but you can use, copy and distribute non-commercially, so long as you give me attribution and do not modify.) To view a copy of the license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0. To my undergraduates, who continually surprise and inspire me Brief Table of Contents About the Author xxi About the Cover xxiii Guide to e-Features xxv Acknowledgments xxvii Preface xxxv 1 Introduction to Econometrics1 2 Graphical Analysis of Economic Data 11 3 Sample Moments and Their Sampling Distributions 27 4 Regression 41 5 Indicator Variables in Cross Sections and Time Series 73 6 Non-Normality, Non-Linearity, and More 105 7 Heteroskedasticity in Cross-Section Regression 143 8 Serial Correlation in Time-Series Regression 151 9 Heteroskedasticity in Time-Series Regression 207 10 Endogeneity 241 11 Vector Autoregression 243 ix x BRIEF TABLE OF CONTENTS 12 Nonstationarity 279 13 Big Data: Selection, Shrinkage and More 317 I Appendices 325 A Construction of the Wage Datasets 327 B Some Popular Books Worth Reading 331 Detailed Table of Contents About the Author xxi About the Cover xxiii Guide to e-Features xxv Acknowledgments xxvii Preface xxxv 1 Introduction to Econometrics1 1.1 Welcome..............................1 1.1.1 Who Uses Econometrics?.................1 1.1.2 What Distinguishes Econometrics?...........3 1.2 Types of Recorded Economic Data...............3 1.3 Online Information and Data..................4 1.4 Software..............................5 1.5 Tips on How to use this book..................7 1.6 Exercises, Problems and Complements.............8 1.7 Historical and Computational Notes.............. -
Cal Analysis of Residual Scores and Outlier Detection in Bivariate Least Squares Regression Analysis
DOCUMENT RESUME ED 395 949 TM 025 016 AUTHOR Serdahl, Eric TITLE An Introduction to Grapl- cal Analysis of Residual Scores and Outlier Detection in Bivariate Least Squares Regression Analysis. PUB DATE Jan 96 NOTE 29p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southwest Educational Research Association (New Orleans, LA, January 1996). PUB TYPE Reports Evaluative/Feasibility (142) Speeches/Conference Papers (150) EDRS PRICE MF01/PCO2 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS *Graphs; *Identification; *Least Squares Statistics; *Regression (Statistics) ;Research Methodology IDENTIFIERS *Outliers; *Residual Scores; Statistical Package for the Social Sciences PC ABSTRACT The information that is gained through various analyses of the residual scores yielded by the least squares regression model is explored. In fact, the most widely used methods for detecting data that do not fit this model are based on an analysis of residual scores. First, graphical methods of residual analysis are discussed, followed by a review of several quantitative approaches. Only the more widely used approaches are discussed. Example data sets are analyzed through the use of the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (personal computer version) to illustrate the various strengths and weaknesses of these approaches and to demonstrate the necessity of using a variety of techniques in combination to detect outliers. The underlying premise for using these techniques is that the researcher needs to make sure that conclusions based on the data are not solely dependent on one or two extreme observations. Once an outlier is detected, the researcher must examine the data point's source of aberration. (Contains 3. figures, 5 tables, and 14 references.) (SLD) * Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document.