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Brexit Status Report: 2016 - 2019 and Beyond

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Brexit Status Report: 2016 - 2019 and Beyond BREXIT STATUS REPORT: 2016 - 2019 AND BEYOND AND - 2019 2016 REPORT: BREXIT STATUS it BSrtaetxuits SRteaptourst R: eSpotrat:l 2016 - 2019 The Institute of International and European Affairs, AND BEYOND 8 North Great George’s Street, Dublin 1, Ireland +353-1-8746756 [email protected] Edited by Dáithí O’Ceallaigh, www.iiea.com Paul Gillespie and Andrew Gilmore COVER MASTER.indd 1 05/12/2019 14:36:53 table of contents About the Authors .................................................................................................... 2 Foreword .................................................................................................................... 7 The Status Report: An Overview ......................................................................... 9 Section One: The Context ...................................................................................15 Chapter 1. The Story so Far: A Calendar of Important Events ...........................17 Chapter 2. UK Political Developments ................................................................ 25 Chapter 3. EU Political Developments Since the UK Referendum ............... 33 Chapter 4. The European Parliament Elections Reviewed ............................ 39 Chapter 5. The Condition of British-Irish Relations .........................................45 Section Two: The EU Reaction ............................................................................51 Chapter 6. The European Council ........................................................................ 53 Chapter 7. The European Parliament ...................................................................61 Chapter 8. The European Commission ................................................................ 67 Section Three: The UK Reaction ...................................................................... 77 Chapter 9. The Murky Shape of Britain’s Post-Brexit Future .....................79 Chapter 10. Scotland: Between Two Unions? .................................................... 85 Chapter 11. Wales: The Eternal Footnote? .......................................................... 93 Chapter 12. Northern Ireland: What Has Brexit Meant so Far? .................. 103 Section Four: Implications for Ireland..............................................................111 Chapter 13. Economic Implications for Ireland .................................................113 Chapter 14. Business Implications: Nothing Added But Time… .....................119 Chapter 15. Some Legal Aspects of Brexit.........................................................125 Chapter 16. The New Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland .................133 Chapter 17. Implications for Ireland of the Future UK-EU Relationship .... 143 Section Five: Short Term Perspectives ......................................................... 149 Chapter 18. Next Steps ...........................................................................................151 Annex - Essential Brexit Reading.........................................................................159 about the authors Dáithí O’Ceallaigh (co-editor) Dáithí is a former Irish diplomat who served as Irish Ambassador in London from 2001-2007. He also served as Ambassador to the UN in Geneva (2007-2009), Ambassador to Finland and Estonia (1993-1998) and Consul General in New York (1987-1993). He was Director General of the IIEA from 2010 to 2013 and continues to Chair its UK Expert Group. He is a member of the Royal Irish Academy. Dr Paul Gillespie (co-editor) Paul is a columnist, leader writer and former foreign policy editor for The Irish Times and a researcher with a special interest in Irish-British relations, European integration politics and comparative regionalism. He is the director of the Constitutional Futures after Brexit project in the Institute for British-Irish Studies in UCD’s School of Politics and International Relations. A member of the IIEA’s UK Expert Group, he is an editor of its previous three books. Andrew Gilmore (co-editor) Andrew is Deputy Director of Research at the IIEA, and an Associate Researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). At the IIEA, he has since 2015 been responsible for coordinating the work of the UK Expert Group, as well as the IIEA’s extensive Brexit events and publications programme. Sophie Andrews-McCarroll Sophie is a Researcher working on the IIEA’s Brexit and EU Foreign Policy programmes. She is a graduate of European Studies in Trinity College Dublin, where she majored in German and minored in Russian. She coordinates the IIEA’s ‘Brexit Hub’. Tony Brown Tony is a joint Founder, former Board Member, and Senior Fellow of the IIEA. He served on the Board of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1997-2000) and was an adviser to the Oireachtas Delegation to the European Convention in 2002- 2003. He also served as Special Advisor to the Tánaiste and Minister for Social Welfare (1973-1977). He is a member of the IIEA’s UK Expert Group. 2 Pat Cox Pat is President of the Jean Monnet Foundation for Europe and a former President of the European Parliament. He is engaged in an extensive range of European affairs from pan-EU transport policy to democratic capacity building in Ukraine and serves on the EIB’s Appointment Advisory Committee. Focused increasingly on issues of sustainability, he chairs Finance Green Ireland National Committee in conjunction with Sustainable Nation Ireland. Geraint Talfan Davies Geraint is Chair of Wales for Europe and was Chair of Wales Stronger in Europe during the 2016 referendum. He was Controller of BBC Wales in the 1990s and is the co-founder and past Chair of the Institute of Welsh Affairs. He authored a 2017 report on Europe and higher education and culture in Wales, and is the author of Unfinished Business, Journal of an Embattled European. Dr Donal De Buitléir Donal is Chairman of the Low Pay Commission and is a former Director General of the IIEA. He was a Board Member of the Health Services Executive 2005-09. Previously he worked in AIB Group and in the Irish public service. Among many other roles, he was Secretary to the Commission on Taxation 1980-85. He is an Eisenhower Fellow. Bill Emmott Bill is an independent writer best known for his 13 years as Editor-in-Chief of The Economist from 1993 to 2006. He now chairs the boards of Trinity College’s Long Room Hub for Arts & Humanities, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Japan Society of the U.K. He has been a visiting fellow at All Souls College, Oxford and is now an Ushioda Fellow of Tokyo College, University of Tokyo. Clare Gray Clare is a Researcher working on the IIEA’s Future of the EU27 Project. Her research focuses on the future of the EU after Brexit and Ireland’s role in this debate. Prior to this she worked in the Directorate-General for the Presidency of the European Parliament, where she was part of the support team for the Parliament’s Brexit Steering Group. She also worked with global communications consultancy Hanover. Ryan Grunwell Ryan is a Research Assistant at the IIEA. Prior to joining the Institute, Ryan worked as a research assistant in the Economics Department of Trinity College, Dublin. Ryan is currently President of the TCD University Philosophical Society, the world’s oldest student debating society. 3 Brendan Halligan Brendan is President and Founder of the IIEA. He was General Secretary of the Irish Labour Party (1967-1980), where he set up the Council of Labour involving the SDLP, the Northern Ireland Labour Party and the British Labour Party. Appointed to the Senate in 1973, he was elected to Dáil Éireann in 1976 and later became a Member of the European Parliament. Dr Katy Hayward Katy is a Reader in Sociology at Queen’s University Belfast and a Senior Fellow of the ESRC-funded UK in a Changing Europe initiative, working full-time on the topic of Brexit and Northern Ireland and the Irish border. She is an Eisenhower Fellow (2019) and a Fellow in the Senator George J. Mitchell Institute for Global Peace, Security and Justice at Queen’s University. Blair Horan Blair was General Secretary of the Civil Public and Services Union (CPSU) from 1997 to 2012. He was a member of the National Forum on Europe from 2002 to 2009 and an alternate member of the EU Economic and Social Committee from 2009 to 2014. He is a member of the European Social Fund Committee, the North-South Interreg Committee, and is Secretary of the Charter Group, which campaigns for a Social Europe. He is a member of the IIEA’s UK Expert Group. Francis Jacobs Francis worked for the European Parliament from 1979-2016 and is the former head of the Parliament’s Information Office in Ireland (2006-2016). He is an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at University College Dublin, and gives lectures on the European Union in several Irish and other European Universities. He is a member of the IIEA’s Future of EU27 Expert Group. Prof. Brigid Laffan Brigid Laffan is Director and Professor at the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, an inter-disciplinary research centre at the European University Institute. The Centre’s mission is to contribute to research on the major issues facing contemporary European society. Previously she was Vice-President of UCD and Principal of the College of Human Sciences from 2004 to 2011. She is a member of the Royal Irish Academy. 4 Dr John Temple Lang John is an Irish lawyer who spent more than twenty years in the Legal Service and the Directorate General for Competition
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