INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL WORLD ESTIMATES www.igc.int 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 est. f'cast million tons 28.07 25.08 TOTAL GRAINS a) Production 2008 2047 2000 2046 2069 n Trade 310 322 343 324 330

i Consumption 1935 2008 1982 2029 2046 Carryover stocks 412 451 469 488 492

a Market year/year change 73 39 18 23 b) r 121 146 145 Major exporters 163 164 WHEAT G Report Production 717 730 736 735 743 Trade 157 153 165 159 162 GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 Consumption 699 716 722 727 732 Carryover stocks 188 203 217 228 229 year/year change 19 14 15 12 b) Major exporters 54 64 64 71 70 MAIZE (CORN) Production 998 1018 969 1017 1030

HIGHLIGHTS Trade 122 125 135 130 131 Consumption 950 993 969 1010 1019 Carryover stocks 182 207 207 213 218 With further upward revisions for wheat and maize (corn), the year/year change 48 25 0 11 forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production Major exporters c) 52 59 53 63 69 in 2016/17 is 23m t higher m/m (month-on-month). Output is now 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 placed at an all-time peak of 2,069m t, up by 3% y/y (year-on-year). est. f'cast proj. The largest adjustment this month is for maize and is nearly entirely million tons 28.07 25.08 SOYABEANS due to a sustained improvement in crop prospects in the US. Production 284 320 316 321 325 Changes for wheat follow the same pattern as last time, as increases Trade 113 127 132 135 136 for the CIS and the US are again partly offset by a reduced figure for Consumption 281 312 320 327 327 the EU. Ample availabilities and low prices are seen encouraging Carryover stocks 29 37 33 30 32 feed demand, which accounts for most of the 17m t m/m consumption year/year change 39-4 -2 boost. Despite this, the stocks number is raised by 4m t from before, Major exporters d) 10 15 17 14 16 to a new high of 492m. At 330m t, the forecast for trade is up by 6m m/m, but is still 4% below the record in 2015/16. million tons (milled basis) RICE Due to an improved outlook in the US amid favourable growing Production 478 479 473 487 484 conditions, world soyabean production is projected 4m t higher than Trade 42 42 40 42 40 in last month’s report, at a peak of 325m, an increase of 3% y/y. With Consumption 478 478 475 489 482 total uptake seen unchanged from July, aggregate ending stocks are Carryover stocks 116 116 114 100 116 lifted slightly, to 31.5m t, albeit still representing the second year/year change 01-2 2 Major exporters e) 38 32 28 18 26 consecutive annual fall, including a mild retreat in the major exporters. Global import demand is anticipated to rise further, to a Figures may not add due to rounding a) Wheat and coarse grains high of 136m t, on expanded deliveries to China. b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US Reflecting marginally reduced prospects for some producers, the d) Argentina, Brazil, US e) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam 2016/17 global rice outturn is placed 3m t lower than previously, at 484m. Nevertheless, this would still be an increase of 2% y/y and an IGC GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI) all-time peak. Despite being lowered slightly, total use is pegged at a 350 Jan 2000 = 100 fresh record of 482m t, while aggregate end-season inventories are seen edging up to 116m. However, owing to historic adjustments for 300 Asian countries, the stocks figure is placed significantly higher than in 250 July. Trade in 2017 is forecast lower than before but, at around 40m t, would be broadly in line with average volumes. 200 The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) is virtually unchanged 150 m/m, with modest net gains for wheat and soyabeans, but declines 2016 2015 2011-15 range for maize and rice. 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec See: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xlsb

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

The 2016/17 world soyabean outturn is projected to OVERVIEW expand by 3% y/y, to a record of 325m t, tied to anticipated area gains and enhanced yields in leading producers. With total consumption seen expanding  After a further upward revision, grains production further on growing demand for soyabean products, in 2016/17 is forecast at an all-time peak. especially in Asia, global stocks are expected to decline  An increase for feed accounts for half of the to a three-year low of 31.5m t. Traded volumes are likely projected growth in grains demand. to reach a fresh high on bigger deliveries to China, with both Brazil and the US each expected to dispatch well in  Global grains stocks will rise for a fourth excess of 50m t. World soyameal trade is forecast at a successive year. new peak in 2016/17 on growing demand from Far East  World soyabean output is tentatively seen at a Asia and Europe. In the EU, another disappointing fresh record on bumper crops in leading domestic rapeseed outturn will likely ensure buying producers, namely the US and Brazil. interest remains strong.  The 2016/17 global rice outturn could be the biggest on record assuming weather conditions Assuming conditions are much improved for rice are favourable in Asia. cultivation in Asia, global output is predicted to expand by 11m t y/y, to a record of 484m. While continued Total grains: Supply and demand summary population growth is set to boost consumption to a new m t high, aggregate carryovers are projected to post a 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y marginal annual increase, to 116m t. Within the total, major exporters’ inventories could retreat slightly, but (est.) (f'cast) change this should be more than offset by accumulation Opening stocks 339 412 451 469 + 3.9% elsewhere, notably in China. Traded volumes in 2017 Production 2,008 2,047 2,000 2,069 + 3.4% are seen broadly unchanged y/y and in line with prior Total supply 2,347 2,459 2,451 2,538 + 3.5% five-year average, underpinned by demand from key Total use 1,935 2,008 1,982 2,046 + 3.2% Asian and African buyers. of which: Food 650 666 665 676 + 1.7%

Feed 841 890 876 908 + 3.6% Industrial 317 324 327 333 + 1.8% MARKET SUMMARY

Closing stocks 412 451 469 492 + 4.9% a) major exporters 121 146 145 164 + 13.6% World grains and oilseeds export prices were mixed Trade (Jul/Jun) 310 322 343 330 - 3.8% during August. With slight gains in soyabean and wheat a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US values offset by declines in rice and maize quotations, the IGC GOI was virtually unchanged compared to a World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production month earlier. Among the sub-Indices, the largest m/m is now expected to be an all-time high in 2016/17 and change was for rice, prices of which eased on seasonal with large opening inventories, overall supply will factors and sluggish export demand. surpass 2.5bn t for the first time. While expectations for bumper availabilities became Although the wheat harvest will likely be a new peak, the more entrenched, with record global wheat, maize and past month has seen escalating concerns about soyabean harvests increasingly likely, the comfortable availabilities of milling grades. Ample rains boosted supply outlook failed to exert much downside price average yields of wheat in many places, but caused pressure. Some traders focused on an expected shortfall some quality downgrading. Maize output is also in supplies of the best milling grade wheat, while expected to be the biggest ever, with a record crop in the soyabean quotations, particularly in the US, moved US accounting for more than half of the y/y increase. higher on solid overseas buying interest.

IGC Grains & Oilseeds Prices Index (GOI)* After a decline in the previous season, global grains consumption is predicted to rebound to a fresh high, led y/y GMR 469 Change** by a strong rise for feed. Because of heavy maize change supplies, the prices of other grains will need to stay competitive to capture any livestock sector demand, IGC GOI 200 - 0.0% + 7.1% including this season’s substantial availabilities of low Wheat sub-Index 158 + 0.5% - 6.7% grade wheat. In spite of robust use, global stocks are Maize sub-Index 191 - 2.7% + 6.6% projected to expand again at the end of 2016/17, with Barley sub-Index + 0.0% - 14.1% the ratio of stocks/use at a 15-year high. However, at a 158 nominal 200m t, projected inventories in China account Rice sub-Index 154 - 6.9% + 1.1% for over 40% of the total. World trade is seen staying Soyabeans sub-Index 215 + 1.6% + 17.9% strong, albeit below the record of the previous year. *Jan 2000=100, **Change vs. GMR 468

2

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

Wheat: GOI sub-Index The IGC GOI rice sub-Index slumped by 7% since the last GMR, with average export prices at a three-month Jan 2000 = 100 low. While some of the weakness was attributed to the 360 transition to new crop pricing in South Asia, values in

320 Thailand were also pressured by sluggish demand and ongoing efforts to dispose of state reserves.

280 Soyabeans: GOI sub-Index

240 Jan 2000 = 100 360 200

320 160

2016 2015 2011-15 range 280 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 240

The world wheat market had a mostly firmer tone during 200 August, with prices underpinned by northern hemisphere quality downgrades and reluctant producer selling. 160 However, as overall availabilities are still expected to be 2016 2015 2011-15 range heavy, the m/m gain in the IGC GOI sub-Index was less 120 than 1%. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Maize: GOI sub-Index World soyabean values were firmer during August, the IGC GOI sub-Index up by 2% m/m. The sharpest gains Jan 2000 = 100 were recorded at the US Gulf, where robust buying 360 interest more than outweighed bearish supply side

320 fundamentals, notably forecasts for record yields.

280 GMR CONTENTS

240 Wheat …………………………………………………………… 4 Durum…………………………………………………………………… 8 200 Maize…………………………………………………………… 9

160 Barley…………………………………………………………… 12

2016 2015 2011-15 range Other coarse grains…………………………………………………… 14 120 Rice…………………………………………………………...… 18 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Oilseeds…………………………………………………………20 The IGC GOI maize sub-Index dipped by 3% m/m, as Ocean Freight Market …………………………………………25 expectations for comfortable world supplies were National Policy & Other Developments……………...…… 26 bolstered by favourable US crop prospects. Prices in Market Focus / Special Features Argentina mainly tracked US quotations lower, but Wheat: Production in Ukraine………………………..……………… 4 values in Brazil were increasingly regarded as nominal. Wheat: UK trade………………………..……………………………… 6 Maize: China provincial subsidies………………………..………… 10 Rice: GOI sub-Index Quarterly Updates (pdf version only)

Industrial use of grains Jan 2000 = 100 240 World trade in wheat flour Tables……………………………………………………………27

220 © IGC 2016 200

180

160

140

2016 2015 2011-15 range 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

3

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

Kazakhstan, with plentiful rains maintaining very good WHEAT yield prospects. Despite a slight drop in area, production is seen rising to a five-year high of 14.5m t (13.7m), up

by 1.0m compared to the last GMR. OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17

 The forecast for world production is lifted by 8m t CIS wheat: Harvested area and production

m/m, to a new record of 743m, up by 5% < Russia production < Ukraine production < Kazakh. production compared to the previous five-year average. 75 30 m t m ha  The figure for consumption is raised by 5m t, to Harvested area >

732m, as low prices stimulate demand. 60 24  The stocks figure for the end of 2016/17 is lifted

again, to an all-time peak of 229m t. 45 18  At 162m t, the volume of trade is placed second only to last season. 30 12

Wheat: Supply and demand summary 15 6 m t 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y 0 0 (est.) (f'cast) change 12/13 14/15 16/17 12/13 14/15 16/17 12/13 14/15 16/17 (f'cast) (f'cast) (f'cast) Opening stocks 170 188 203 217 + 7.2% Production 717 730 736 743 + 0.9%

Total supply 887 919 939 961 + 2.3% Market Focus: 2016/17 production in Ukraine Total use 699 716 722 732 + 1.4% of which: Food 474 481 487 493 + 1.2% By mid-August, farmers in Ukraine had finished winter Feed 134 145 146 150 + 2.6% wheat harvesting, with the Agriculture Ministry reporting record yields, up by around 10% y/y. Because of a very Industrial 22 22 22 22 + 0.9% dry start to the season, planting was completed later Closing stocks 188 203 217 229 + 5.3% a) than normal, leading to fears about poor establishment major exporters 54 64 64 70 + 8.5% ahead of the winter. Owing to the possibility of higher Trade (Jul/Jun) 157 153 165 162 - 1.6% than normal abandonment, some forecasters had initially a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US predicted an unusually small crop.

Production Ukraine crop forecasts since November 2015 Crop prospects in the northern hemisphere improved m t considerably during the past few months, with 28 IGC f'cast Highest f'cast* Lowest f'cast* exceptionally good yields reported from winter harvests in the US and the Black Sea region. While results in the 24 EU were worse than expected, potentially good outturns 20 in the southern hemisphere could more than compensate and help to propel world output to a new all- 16 time peak. The forecast for global production is raised by 8m t from the last report, to 743m, up by 1% y/y. 12

After a sharp downgrade in the previous GMR, the EU 8 production forecast is cut by a further 3.8m t, to 145.2m, 4 a 9% y/y contraction. The reduction again mainly reflects wet weather damage to the common wheat crop in 0 France, now placed at 29.1m t (40.7m). Based on Nov-15 Dec Jan-16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug harvest results to date, the estimate for Germany is also *Highest/lowest crop forecasts, based on various official and private sources. revised down. However, projections for Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic are lifted slightly. However, after a generally mild winter, conditions were extremely good for crops during the spring, with yield In Russia, showers were beneficial for developing spring potential revived by abundant rains and warmer than crops in the Urals District and much of western Siberia. normal temperatures. With only limited instances of However, additional rains would be welcome in parts of winterkill and little need for replanting, production the Volga District. The winter harvest is nearly complete estimates began to creep higher around April. Reflecting with average yields so far about 12% better y/y and at better than expected harvest results, output forecasts the highest ever levels. The output forecast is lifted by have been raised further more recently. Incorporating 2.5m t m/m, to a new record of 70.0m (61.0m). Following latest field data, the crop is placed at 26.5m t, up by beneficial spring planting conditions, the weather 1.5m from before, albeit still down 3% y/y on account of a smaller area. remained broadly favourable for crop development in

4

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

Yields from the latter stages of the US winter wheat Consumption harvest were even better than expected, including in At 732m t, the forecast for consumption in 2016/17 is 5m Kansas, the main producing state, where productivity is t higher m/m, as relatively low prices and ample supplies seen rising by more than 50% y/y. Helped by mostly dry are underpinning strong demand for both food and feed. weather, particularly early in the month, spring wheat cutting was significantly faster than normal. Generally The figure for world food use is up by 3m t, at a new peak strong yields have been confirmed, but with variable of 493m, with the 1.2% y/y growth mainly in developing protein content. Owing to upgraded forecasts for both countries in Asia and Africa. While low prices are helping winter and spring varieties, all-wheat production is to improve the popularity of wheat-based foods in some placed 1.7m t higher than before, at 63.2m (55.8m), an countries, especially in Far East Asia, most of the eight-year peak. expansion continues to be linked to population change. Overall, global per capita food consumption is forecast to Conditions for spring crops in Western Canada be broadly steady y/y, at about 66kg. remained mostly favourable, with good vegetative growth reported. However, there were concerns about At 150m t (146m), the forecast for feed use is about 2m potential damage from recent persistent rains in some higher than last time. Ample supplies and competitive areas. While excessive moisture delayed the first stages prices relative to alternatives could see feeding of wheat of the winter harvest, reports from the eastern provinces at the second highest level ever. The figure for the US is have so far been promising. Because of increased yield raised by 0.8m t, to a four-year high of 9.0m (3.6m). There expectations, the output forecast is up by 0.5m t m/m, at are also increases from before for Russia and several 30.0m (27.6m). feed importing countries in Pacific Asia. However, because of rising domestic prices, the projection for the The figure for production in China is unchanged m/m, at EU is trimmed by 0.5m t, to 54.0m (56.0m). 126.0m t, down by 3% y/y. Government support measures helped to keep planted area at historically Wheat: World supply and demand high levels, but yield potential was capped by poor m t m t weather during the growing season. With India’s harvest 800 < World consumption 100 concluded some months ago, the production estimate is < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > increased by 3.5m t from before, to 93.5m (86.5m), to 750 80 match the latest official figure. 700 Wheat: Production in selected countries 60 m t 650

13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y 40 (est.) (f'cast) change 600

Major exporters 20 550 EU-28 143.2 156.1 159.8 145.2 - 9.2% Russia 52.1 59.1 61.0 70.0 + 14.7% 500 0 US 58.1 55.1 55.8 63.2 + 13.1% 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) (f'cast)

Canada 37.5 29.4 27.6 30.0 + 8.7% a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US Australia 25.3 23.7 24.2 27.0 + 11.6% Ukraine 22.3 24.7 27.3 26.5 - 2.8% Stocks Argentina 9.2 13.9 11.3 14.2 + 25.7% A fourth consecutive annual accumulation of stocks is Kazakhstan 13.9 13.0 13.7 14.5 + 5.5% envisaged at the end of 2016/17 (aggregate of Selected others respective local marketing years) to a record 229m t. China 121.9 126.2 130.2 126.0 - 3.2% The global ratio of stocks/use is seen reaching a 15-year India 93.5 95.9 86.5 93.5 + 8.1% high of 31%. However, inventories in China could World total 717.1 730.4 736.4 743.2 + 0.9% account for 40% of the total, the largest proportion since 2000/01. If these are excluded, the stocks/use ratio is broadly unchanged y/y, at 23%, and roughly matches After earlier delays, planting in Argentina was completed the average in the past 10 years. by the end of August, with the final stages of fieldwork in Buenos Aires province aided by mostly sunny and warm The forecast for the 2016/17 carryover is slightly higher weather. However, as some farmers did not sow all their than in the last report, with a cut in the major exporters intended area, the production projection is trimmed by outweighed by increases elsewhere, particularly in Far 0.4m t from before, to 14.2m (11.3m). East Asia.

Australia’s winter crops benefitted from widespread The projection for the eight major exporters is reduced by showers during the past month. Based on the very good 1.1m t, but the carryover is still seen reaching a six-year start to the season, yield expectations are revised high, at 69.6m (64.2m). Reductions from before are upward and output is forecast at a five-year high of mainly in the Black Sea region, where increases in supply 27.0m t (24.2m). are exceeded by upward revisions for exports. For

5

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

Russia, the stocks figure is down by 1.9m t from before, stimulate demand in Bangladesh and imports are now to 7.3m (5.6m), while for Ukraine it is cut by 0.6m, to 3.3m expected to match last season’s high level of 4.6m t. (3.1m). Although production expectations in the EU are reduced m/m, this is more than offset by smaller Although EU export licence awards are so far ahead of projections for domestic use and exports, leaving ending last year, the pace is expected to slow considerably stocks slightly higher than previously, at 13.2m t. This is because of poor price competitiveness. The export down by 15% y/y, but is 18% above the five-year average. forecast is cut by 3.5m t from before, to a four-year low Inventories are also expected to be larger than normal in of 25.5m, down by one-quarter y/y. Large harvests and the US, at 30.9m t (26.7m), up fractionally from the July attractive prices boost the projections for exports from GMR and the most since 1987/88. the Black Sea region. Russia is seen shipping a record 30.7m t (25.7m), up by 3.1m m/m. While Ukraine’s Because of higher than previously estimated production, exports will probably still fall short of last season, the the projection for centrally-held stocks in India is lifted by forecast is increased by 1.9m t, to 14.0m (17.4m). There 1.5m t, to 14.3m (14.5m). For China, the forecast is raised are also upward revisions for Kazakhstan, Australia, by around 1m t, to a nominal 90m, the biggest since the Canada and the US. end of 1999/00. Wheat: Shipments (Jul/Jun) by the major exporters Wheat: Stocks in China and India a)

m t 40 m t Share of world stocks 120 60% 2015/16 est. 2016/17 f'cast < China China > 35 < India India > 100 50% 30

80 40% 25

20 60 30% 15

40 20% 10

20 10% 5

0 0 0% Russia EU USA Canada Australia Ukraine Argentina Kazakhstan 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 (f'cast) a) local marketing years

Market Focus: UK wheat trade

Trade Aided by a large harvest and competitive prices, partly The forecast for world wheat trade in 2016/17 (Jul/Jun) because of a weak currency, UK exports are estimated is 3m t higher than in the last report, at 162m, only 2% at a seven-year high of 3.1m t in 2015/16 (Jul/Jun), an below the estimated record for the year before. increase of 42% y/y. The expansion was led by a 73% rise in shipments to other EU countries, including a two- Much of the change from last time is for Pacific Asia, fold jump in sales to Spain. Exports outside of the EU where aggregate purchases are raised by 2.4m t, to were down by 20% y/y in 2015/16, although volumes 40.1m, second only to last season’s biggest ever volume were about double the 10-year average, helped by of 41.4m. Ample global availabilities of low/medium grade weaker ocean freight rates. wheat and attractive prices will likely sustain solid imports for feed, although competition is anticipated from a steep Wheat: UK exports (Jul/Jun) rise in world maize supplies. Increasing demand for wheat-based foods will also contribute to buying interest. m t 4.0 to EU to non-EU Upward revisions from last time include for South Korea, 3.5 the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The projection for 3.0 China is lifted by 0.3m t m/m, to 3.5m (3.5m), owing to likely purchases of milling wheat to supplement poor 2.5 quality from the local harvest. However, the forecast for 2.0 Indonesia is trimmed by 0.2m t, to 8.8m (10.2m), because of government efforts to stem recent high levels 1.5 of feed wheat imports. 1.0

Because of disappointing local quality and relatively high 0.5 domestic prices, the import forecast for the EU is raised 0.0 by 0.9m t m/m, to 6.4m, although this is still slightly lower 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 y/y. Relatively low international prices are helping to Source: Eurostat

6

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

Within the EU, Spain is typically the single largest Gains in US export quotations partly reflected rising export destination for UK exports, taking about two-fifths of premiums. Since the last GMR, DNS (13.5% protein) shipments on average, mainly for the feed sector. export prices rose by US$4, to US$239 fob (PNW), while Portugal, the Netherlands and the Republic of Ireland DNS (14%) gained US$10, to US$243 fob (PNW). US are also important markets. Gulf quotations for SRW increased by US$4, to US$182 fob, and HRW (11.5%) was up by US$2, to US$190 fob. North Africa is the primary non-EU destination for UK exports, with Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco sourcing Wheat: US HRW fob prices by percent protein frequent cargos of milling wheat. Shipments of feed US$ fob wheat are occasionally reported to the US, but demand 220 from that market is particularly price sensitive. Exports to HRW 12.5% (Gulf) Far East Asia are comparatively rare, although sales to 210 Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have been reported in the past two seasons, likely for the feed sector. 200

Once the UK completes the exit process from the EU, 190 trade will be governed by prevailing measures for third countries. In general, an import licence is required for shipments of grains to the EU and, in most cases, the 180 payment of a tariff. However, a number of fixed tariff HRW 11% (Gulf) import quotas are also in place at lower or zero duties. 170 May Jun Jul Aug For wheat, there is a 3.1m t quota for low/medium quality supplies at a reduced duty of €12 (€95 outside of the Source: US Wheat Associates, as at 19 August quota), but with about 611,000t of the total reserved for the US and Canada. In addition, an annual tariff-free Concerns about crop quality supported prices in the EU, quota of 950,000t was introduced for Ukraine in 2014, although advances were trimmed in the latter part of the with amounts under this generally destined for southern month as harvests moved toward completion. Because EU feed markets, including Spain and Portugal. UK of limited good quality supplies in France, there was shipments to these markets could therefore face a cost uncertainty about the expiration of nearby Paris futures, disadvantage unless UK specific market access with speculation that recent imports from other EU arrangements are agreed. countries could be delivered against the contract. Since the last GMR, grade 1 export prices in France gained a net US$3, to US$188 fob (Rouen), while B quality in RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Germany rose by US$5, to US$193 fob (Hamburg).

World wheat export prices mostly moved higher during Despite an increase over the month, Black Sea milling the first part of August, but gains were eroded by the end wheat export prices remained very competitive. Support of the month. Overall, since the last GMR, the IGC GOI was linked to expectations for strong export demand wheat sub-Index was only fractionally higher, with owing to the crop shortfall in the EU, with additional average quotations 7% below one-year earlier. underpinning from slow farmer selling amid hopes that values would rise further. However, tight storage capacity With the northern hemisphere harvest in the latter stages, and cash flow needs for autumn fieldwork were expected there were ideas that seasonal price lows had been to see selling accelerate soon. Black Sea milling wheat reached in some areas. Support stemmed from harvest quotations increased by US$8 m/m, to US$174 fob, while reports which continued to point to disappointing quality feed grades gained US$9, to US$164 fob. in some major production zones. Consequently, there were relatively strong price advances for supplies with Wheat: Export prices* the best milling characteristics, including high protein August 2015 – August 2016 levels. After initial gains, values for low/medium grades US$ / t 300 retreated again, weighed by heavy global availabilities. US DNS 14% US SRW Black Sea (Milling) US HRW (ord) EU (France) Black Sea (Feed) Early August increases in US futures were led by the Minneapolis spring wheat market, where sentiment was 250 bolstered by robust early season export demand for 243 higher grade supplies. Up to mid-August, combined export commitments for HRW and HRS were around 200 190 50% up y/y, while SRW was down by 39%. Under 188 182 pressure from lacklustre demand for medium quality 174 wheats, Chicago-based SRW futures traded at 10-year 164 150 lows at times. After edging upward for much of August as speculative funds trimmed their record short positions, 27-Jul-16 06-Apr-16 21-Oct-15 13-Jan-16 01-Jun-16 29-Jun-16 10-Feb-16 09-Mar-16 24-Aug-16 26-Aug-15 23-Sep-15 18-Nov-15 16-Dec-15 values turned lower again at the end of the month. 04-May-16 *US HRW/SRW (fob Gulf), US DNS (fob PNW), France (fob Rouen)

7

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

This includes an accumulation of around 1.0m t in the DURUM EU, to 2.6m, and a 0.4m rise in Canada, to 1.4m.

OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 The forecast for trade in 2016/17 (Jul/Jun) is a little higher than in the last GMR, at 9.2m t (8.7m), only modestly The forecast for world durum production in 2016/17 is below the record of two seasons ago. Combined North fractionally higher than in the July report, at 38.4m t, a African imports could be the highest in around 16 years, decrease of 2% y/y. While good crops are expected in at 3.9m t (3.4m). The figure for the EU is raised slightly the major exporters, there was a sharp fall in output in from before due to disappointing quality in some areas, parts of North Africa, the main importing region. but is still placed lower y/y, at 2.3m t (2.5m).

Aggregate output in the four major exporters (Canada, Durum: Supply and demand summary the EU, the US and Mexico) is forecast to expand by 9% m t y/y, to 20.1m t, the most in 18 years. With harvesting 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y virtually complete, the EU production forecast is trimmed (est.) (f'cast) change to 8.9m t, up by 4% y/y. Most areas grew better crops than last season, including an eight-year high of 4.8m t Opening stocks 6.3 7.1 6.3 8.3 + 33.1% (4.2m) in Italy. But adverse weather saw output in Production 38.8 34.5 39.1 38.4 - 1.9% France drop to 1.4m t (1.8m), the lowest in 15 years. Total supply 45.2 41.6 45.4 46.7 + 2.9% Mixed quality was reported, with some damage in Total use 38.0 35.3 37.0 37.9 + 2.2% France and Spain, but mostly good results in Italy. of which: Food 30.5 29.3 30.1 30.6 + 1.5% Feed 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.1 + 9.0% Durum: Production in selected countries Closing stocks 7.1 6.3 8.3 8.8 + 6.0% m t major exporters a) 2.82.53.44.9+ 44.8% 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y Trade (Jul/Jun) 8.2 9.3 8.7 9.2 + 5.7% (est.) (f'cast) change a) Canada, EU, Mexico, US Major exporters EU-28 8.1 7.6 8.5 8.9 + 4.3% RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS US 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.3 + 0.4% Canada 6.5 5.2 5.4 6.5 + 20.6% While durum export quotations remained scarce over the Mexico 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 + 9.6% past month, values were nominally firm, albeit about one- third lower y/y. Increased import needs in North Africa will Selected others likely continue to provide some support in coming weeks, Algeria 2.5 1.3 2.3 1.9 - 16.3% despite potential seasonal weakness as new crop North Morocco 1.9 1.4 2.4 0.9 - 63.9% American supplies move into export pipelines. Tunisia 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.0 + 32.5% World total 38.8 34.5 39.1 38.4 - 1.9% There were occasional reports of buying interest in North

Africa, including Tunisia’s late August purchase of In the US, the harvest got underway in the main 50,000t from optional origins, at up to US$257 c&f, production area of North Dakota. Growing conditions Dec/Jan; this was a slightly lower price compared to the have not always been ideal for the crop and there were last reported tender about one month earlier. However, reports of possible quality problems in some areas. there could be some price underpinning if recent reports However, higher plantings should contribute to an above- of quality problems are confirmed as North American average outturn of 2.3m t (2.2m). Increased area and harvests advance. ample soil moisture for most of the growing season could see output in Canada climb by 21%, to 6.5m t. While crop Durum: Export prices August 2015 – August 2016 condition assessments remain generally favourable, the weather has been overly wet in places and there are US$/t fob concerns about potential quality and yield damage. 420 Canada EU (France) Mexico US A sustained rise in food demand is largely behind projected 2% growth in global durum consumption in 370 2016/17, to 37.9m t. Because of poor new crop quality in some areas, the forecast for feed use is raised to a five- year peak of 2.1m t (1.9m). 320

Carryover stocks (aggregate of respective local 285 marketing years) are seen increasing by 6%, to 8.8m t. 270 265 While inventories may retreat in North Africa because of 247 smaller harvests, this is outweighed by a probable - expansion in the major exporters, where combined 220 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug stocks could be at a seven-year peak of 4.9m t (3.4m).

8

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

Maize: 30-year trends in US production COARSE GRAINS m t t/ha 400 < Production Yields > 12

350 MAIZE (CORN) 10 300 8 250 OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 200 6  Mainly because of a bumper US crop, but with 150 larger harvests expected too in Europe, the CIS 4 and the southern hemisphere, world production 100 is forecast up by 6% y/y, to a new all-time peak. 2 50  Amid robust underlying demand from livestock and starch producers, total consumption is seen 0 0 86/87 91/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 rising above 1bn t for the first time ever. (f'cast)  Cumulative end-season stocks will likely rise to unprecedented levels, with exporter inventories, Recent heavy rains across eastern Canada’s maize particularly in the US, forecast to be heavy. provinces likely arrived too late to reverse damage from an earlier drought. Production is forecast at 12.3m t,  Larger supplies and policy changes in some down 0.5m from before and 9% lower than last year. importers could dampen buying interest, limiting

global trade to 131m t, down by 3% y/y. Because of overly hot and dry weather in some parts of

Maize: Supply and demand summary the EU, output is forecast 1.2m t lower m/m, at 61.6m, m t still up 6% compared to last season’s drought-affected outturn. Downgrades this month are mainly tied to 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y Romania, Italy, France and Germany, partly offset by an (est.) (f'cast) change improved outlook for Hungary. Opening stocks 134 182 207 207 - 0.1% Production 998 1,018 969 1,030 + 6.3% While there were some concerns about potential heat Total supply 1,132 1,200 1,175 1,237 + 5.2% damage in parts of Ukraine, soil moisture reserves were Total use 950 993 969 1,019 + 5.2% likely sufficient to maintain good yield potential. Forecast production is unchanged from last month’s update, at of which: Food 111 114 111 112 + 1.7% 26.5m t, up by 14% from 2015/16. Feed 545 576 565 594 + 5.1%

Industrial 257 265 265 271 + 2.3% Conditions in China were mixed during August, with Closing stocks 182 207 207 218 + 5.4% a) some crops in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia Major exporters 52 59 53 69 + 30.0% stressed by unseasonable heat and dryness. Weather Trade (Jul/Jun) 122 125 135 131 - 2.5% elsewhere was mostly favourable, including in other a) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US northeastern regions and on the North China Plain. With area and yield forecasts unchanged from before, output Production is still pegged at 219.0m t, down 3% y/y. Lifted by another sharp increase to the US figure, world production is forecast 13m t more than in July, at a record Maize: Production in selected countries 1,030m, a 6% y/y gain. Larger harvests are predicted m t almost everywhere, apart from in China and Canada. 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y (est.) (f'cast) change US crop conditions are better than average, with 75% Major exporters rated good or excellent as at 21 August, up from 69% a US 351.3 361.1 345.5 378.8 + 9.7% year ago. While there are some concerns about warm Brazil 80.1 84.7 68.5 83.7 + 22.2% temperatures, especially overnight, recent growing Argentina 33.1 33.8 37.9 39.2 + 3.5% conditions have been mostly beneficial, with survey data + 14.0% showing the potential for best ever yields in a number of Ukraine 30.9 28.5 23.3 26.5 states, including in Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska, the three Selected others largest producers. China 218.5 215.6 224.6 219.0 - 2.5% EU-28 64.2 76.2 58.2 61.6 + 6.0% Awaiting more field observations and initial harvest India 24.3 24.2 21.8 24.0 + 10.1% results, the Council’s yield forecast is raised to 10.8t/ha, Russia 11.6 11.3 13.2 14.0 + 6.1% (10.6t/ha), well above the long-term trend. For now, the South Africa 15.0 10.6 7.7 12.9 + 67.6% crop is placed at 378.8m t (345.5m), easily the largest on World total 998.4 1018.3 968.5 1029.9 + 6.3% record, 13.6m more than before and up 15% versus the five-year average.

9

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

After some earlier delays to the monsoon, rains have subsidies would amount to around CNY1,940/ha since turned heavier in India, benefitting kharif planting. (US$292/ha). These farmers will receive payments in With increased acreage reported in a number of the addition to the basic subsidy available to all grain largest growing states, forecast output is lifted by 1.0m t, producers. to 24.0m, up by 10% y/y. Maize: China harvested area, by region Sowing in Argentina is due to get underway shortly. m ha Depending on the variety of seed, field work will continue 40 until at least January in the northernmost areas. 35 Others Because of potentially high returns and with farmers -2% keen to include more maize into annual rotations, 30 seedings could surge by around 20%. Assuming Northern 25 -2% average yields, production is projected to climb to a record 39.2m t (37.9m). 20

15 Amid tight supplies and strong prices in Brazil, planting -7% Northeast of full-season maize is said to have started slightly 10 earlier than usual in Rio Grande do Sul. More farmers 5 there are reportedly considering growing a late 0 soyabean crop directly after maize fields are harvested. 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 While financing may be a constraint for some producers, (est.) (f'cast) overall area, including safrinha varieties sown from January onwards, is projected to increase by around 3% Under the outgoing scheme, maize is sold directly to the y/y. Yields close to the levels achieved between 2012 government at a fixed price, set most recently at and 2014 would result in an outturn of around 83.7m t, CNY2,000/t (US$301). While the new subsidies are up by 22% from last season’s unusually poor result. larger than some local analysts had predicted, there is still uncertainty about whether farmer incomes will be After drought in the past two years, a return to more maintained at previous levels, with much yet hinging on seasonable conditions could see South Africa’s harvest prices later in the season. Local values have already rebound by 68%, to 12.9m t. declined by around one-quarter y/y and could potentially drop further after the harvest, as values become more Maize: World supply and demand influenced by market forces.

m t m t 1,050 80 Maize: China domestic prices < World consumption < World production CNY/t 2,800 Stocks: major exporters a) > Jinzhou (Liaoning province), warehouse fob 950 60 2,600

2,400 850 40

2,200 Procurement price: MY14/15 MY15/16 750 20 2,000

1,800 650 0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) (f'cast) 1,600 a) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US Oct 14 Apr 15 Oct 15 Apr 16 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun Feb 15Feb 16Feb Aug 14 Aug 14 Dec 15 Aug 15 Dec 16 Aug

China: Provincial maize subsidies Consumption After the elimination of direct maize price support Chiefly reflecting upgraded projections for feed use, measures in March, under which supplies from some global consumption is placed 9m t higher from before, at provinces were procured for temporary reserves at an all-time peak of 1,019m (969m). guaranteed minimums, China’s Finance Ministry recently announced the allocation of CNY30bn (US$4.5bn) in World feed demand is seen at a record 594m t, up by new subsidies for 2016/17. 5% compared to 2015/16, mainly tied to increases in the US, China and the EU, but with gains also in Argentina, Growers in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Brazil, Mexico and Russia. Liaoning, four northeastern provinces accounting for around 40% of national output, will be eligible for The bulk of this month’s upgrade is linked to a higher subsidies, with payments administered locally and based projection for the US where, because of large supplies on seeded area. According to CNGOIC estimates, and lower expected prices, feed/residual use is seen

10

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

increasing to 142.2m t (132.1m). Livestock producers in import permits to private feed mills. With the Indonesian India are also likely to include more maize, lifting National Logistics Agency (BULOG) now the designated forecast feed use to 11.4m t (11.2m). Owing to stricter authorised maize importer, forecast shipments are cut by import regulations, projected feed demand in Indonesia 0.8m t from last month, to 2.2m (2.2m). is down by 0.9m t from the July GMR, to 7.0m, similar to last year. Amid large supplies, competitive prices and reduced competition from Brazil, US exports (Sep/Aug) are Maize: Changes in 2016/17 supply and demand forecast at a nine-year peak of 55.0m t (48.9m), up 4.6m from before. Shipments by Brazil in the current MY 2016/17 y/y change, m t (Mar/Feb) are predicted to drop by almost half, to 18.5m 60 t. Because of another production downgrade, the

50 number is lowered by 1.5m t m/m. Supplies

Production 40 RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS 30 Consumption

20 The IGC GOI maize sub-Index eased by a net 3% in the Closing stocks Production Closing stocks Closing Consumption period since the last GMR. Prices were weaker across Supplies 10 Exports (Jul/Jun) most major exporters, with losses especially marked in Trade (Jul/Jun)Trade Opening stocks 0 stocks Opening the second half of the month, on expectations for large global supplies, including a potentially record US crop. -10 WORLD USA

Maize: Export prices August 2015 – August 2016 Stocks US$ / t Carryover stocks at the end of 2016/17 (aggregate of 210 Argentina, fob Up River respective local marketing years) are seen 4m t higher US 3YC, fob Gulf m/m, at 218m (207m), potentially a new record. Gains are mainly tied to some build-up in the US, partially 195 offset by a slight drawdown in China. 180 Cumulative carryovers in the four major exporters 176 (Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US) are forecast 5.0m t 168 165 higher than before, at 68.5m (52.7m), the most in almost 30 years. Because of an anticipated huge crop, US end- season inventories will be particularly heavy, projected 150 at 57.9m t (43.3m). The ratio of stocks-to-use of 19% 27-Jul-16 06-Apr-16 21-Oct-15 01-Jun-16 29-Jun-16 (14%), is almost twice as high versus the recent average 13-Jan-16 10-Feb-16 09-Mar-16 24-Aug-16 26-Aug-15 23-Sep-15 18-Nov-15 16-Dec-15 04-May-16 of 11%. After trading in a narrow range, US futures dropped by a After six years of stockpiling, China is likely to draw net 3% m/m. Declines were linked mostly to a favourable upon inventories amid a smaller harvest and government outlook for production, but with overall losses trimmed by steps to boost domestic uptake. However, at 106.3m t, solid overseas demand and occasional short covering. end-season stocks are still expected to remain With fob premiums also slightly weaker given ample historically large, down by only 3% y/y. pipeline availabilities, Gulf export quotations were down by 4%, at around US$168. Trade World trade in 2016/17 (Jul/Jun) is forecast at 131.4m t, Prices in Argentina were weighed by seasonal harvest trailing the previous year’s record by almost 3%. pressure and a noted pickup in producer selling. Compared to last month, the figure is raised by 1.8m t, Following some earlier delays, there was also a with the EU import projection up 1.0m, on the outlook for significant improvement in internal logistics, with August tighter local supplies and changes in price relationships port loadings progressing at a very strong pace. With with other feedgrains. Figures for Malaysia, Cuba and exporters keen to secure more sales, Up River Saudi Arabia are also lifted slightly, reflecting a strong premiums eased towards the end of the month, pushing pace of recent shipments. prices down by a net 4%, to around US$176 fob.

Compared to 2015/16, the EU and China are expected Brazil’s market was ill-defined, with exporter activity to be smaller buyers, with imports placed at 11.5m t quiet owing to much tighter supplies. Mostly tracking (13.6m) and 2.0m (3.9m), respectively. In contrast, changes elsewhere, nominal Paranagua prices were Mexico, Egypt, South Korea and Morocco are seen down 4%, at around US$188 fob (Sep). sourcing slightly more from the global market. New crop Black Sea quotations were slightly firmer on Amid continuing efforts to boost self-sufficiency in heightened concerns about hot weather, with October Indonesia, the government recently stopped issuing shipments priced at around US$173 fob.

11

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

The EU winter barley harvest was almost finished by BARLEY mid-August. Yields were disappointing in the main

western producers, particularly in France and Germany, OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 where grain fill was severely affected by earlier wet conditions. While damage to French spring crops was  Mainly reflecting very good results in the CIS, the less severe, a smaller than normal proportion will likely world production forecast is slightly higher m/m, be suitable for malting. The weather was generally more at 144.9m t. favourable in central and southern parts of Europe, including in Spain, where production is estimated at  The projection for consumption is raised by 1.8m 9.1m t, up by 43% y/y. EU total output is revised 2.3m t t m/m, including an increase for feed in the EU. lower than before, to 59.7m, down by 2% y/y.  The figure for global stocks is cut by 2.1m t, but at 29.7m is still placed higher y/y, led by Barley: EU production accumulations in the major exporters. m t  World trade is seen falling by 14%, mainly on 70 smaller shipments to Saudi Arabia and China. 60 Others Barley: Supply and demand summary -1% m t 50

13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y 40 (est.) (f'cast) change -6% UK 30 Opening stocks 23 27 26 29 + 12.8% Spain +43% Production 145 144 148 145 - 1.8% 20 Germany Total supply 168 170 174 174 + 0.3% -8% Total use 141 144 144 144 + 0.0% 10 -18% France of which: Food 7 7 7 7 + 1.1% 0 Feed 94 97 97 96 - 0.4% 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Industrial 29 30 30 30 + 1.3% (est.) (f'cast) Closing stocks 27 26 29 30 + 1.8% a) Major exporters 13 14 14 16 + 12.7% In Canada, sustained rainfall across the Prairies maintained very good spring yield potential. Trade (Jul/Jun, excl. malt) 23 29 29 25 - 13.8% a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US Nevertheless, there are concerns about localised lodging and hail damage, as well as the potential for disruptions Production to the early stages of the harvest. Because of strong At 144.9m t, the global production forecast is increased competition from alternatives, barley area is estimated to slightly from the last report, with larger projections for the be unchanged y/y, but due to anticipated good yields, CIS, Canada and Australia partly offset by reductions for output is seen expanding by 2%, to 8.4m t, 0.3m more the EU and Argentina. While average yields could reach than predicted last month. 3.0t/ha for the first time, harvested area is seen lower y/y and output is expected to be down by 2%. Barley: Production in selected countries m t While winter barley comprises only a small share of 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y production in Russia, yields are typically almost twice as (est.) (f'cast) change high as spring varieties. Results from the 2016/17 winter Major exporters harvest have been especially good, with a strong EU-28 59.560.560.859.7- 1.8% increase in productivity following near-ideal weather at Russia 15.420.017.118.5+ 8.3% key times of the growing season. With combining Ukraine 7.6 9.4 8.7 9.8 + 12.1% recently moving into spring barley areas, more variability + 8.2% in yields and quality have been reported. However, Australia 9.2 8.6 8.6 9.3 taking the latest field data into account, the production Canada 10.2 7.1 8.2 8.4 + 2.1% forecast is lifted by 0.5m t, to 18.5m, up 8% y/y. US 4.7 4.0 4.7 4.1 - 11.5% Argentina 4.7 2.9 4.9 3.0 - 38.3% With reports from the final stages of Ukraine’s harvest Kazakhstan 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.9 + 8.4% confirming excellent yields, up by around 12% y/y, Selected others estimated production is boosted by 1.0m t, to 9.8m Turkey 7.9 6.3 8.0 7.0 - 12.5% (8.7m), the largest since 2009/10. World total 144.8 143.7 147.6 144.9 - 1.8%

Spring barley in northern Kazakhstan benefitted from rainy weather in recent months. As the first stages of the The US harvest progressed quickly and was 70% done by harvest have shown stronger than anticipated yields, the 21 August, well ahead of the recent average. Amid production forecast is raised by 0.5m t, to 2.9m, up by favourable growing weather and unusually good condition almost one-quarter from the previous five-year average. ratings, average yields are expected to be an all-time

12

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

high. Projected production is increased fractionally m/m, supplies from the harvest, feed demand in Russia is at 4.1m t, down 12% y/y due to a smaller acreage. predicted to climb by 1% y/y, to a five-year high of 9.3m t.

Wet weather and delayed rowcrop harvesting kept World industrial consumption is placed marginally higher planting in Argentina behind schedule, with progress y/y, at 30.2m t (29.8m). The expansion is expected to be the slowest in around seven years. As the ideal period driven mostly by increasing needs for brewing in Pacific for barley sowing has now passed, the Council’s area Asia and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. forecast is trimmed by 0.1m ha, to 0.8m (1.3m), potentially a six-year low. If yields are similar to the Stocks previous year, production could drop by 38%, to 3.0m t. Despite a 2.1m t cut from last GMR, the forecast for world stocks at the end of 2016/17 (aggregate of Growing conditions remained favourable across respective local marketing years) is still a seven-year Australia, with widespread showers accompanied by peak, at 29.7m (29.2m). Reductions from last time mostly seasonal temperatures. Because of early sowing, include for Argentina, Australia and the EU. including in parts of Western Australia, crop development is reported to be well advanced. Due to an Inventories in the major exporters are projected to improving yield outlook, production is forecast 0.3m t expand by 13%, to 15.7m t, with increases in the EU, higher than last time, at 9.3m (8.6m), an 11-year peak. Russia and Ukraine partially offset by a decrease in Argentina. Mainly owing to lower than anticipated Consumption production and increased feed demand, the carryout in World consumption in 2016/17 is forecast only the EU is down by 1.8m t m/m, to 6.8m (5.8m), still the marginally higher y/y, at 144.4m t (144.3m), with modest most since 2011/12. The forecast for closing stocks in advances for industrial uses and food offsetting a drop Argentina at the end of November 2017 is down by for feed. A decline in demand in China is expected to be 0.4m t m/m, at 0.8m (1.3m), mostly due to a lower outweighed by gains in the EU, the CIS and Near East anticipated carry-in following recent stronger than Asia. The projection is raised by 1.8m t compared to the expected exports. previous report, mainly due to an increase for feed. Barley: Stocks in the major exporters At 96.2m t, the global feed figure is up by 1.7m t m/m m t and is now seen only slightly lower y/y. The main 16 Kazakhstan changes from before are for the EU, Ukraine, Iran and Argentina Algeria. 14 ave. Ukraine Russia 12 Projected feeding in the EU is 0.8m t higher m/m, at Canada 10 35.9m t (34.4m), matching the five-year average. Australia Relative prices have moved in favour of barley for 8 USA inclusion in compound feeds, but overall demand is still likely to be capped by ample supplies of alternatives, 6 particularly maize and low grade wheat. 4 EU Barley: World supply and demand 2

0 m t m t 160 40 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 < World consumption (est.) (f'cast) < World production Stocks: major exporters a) > 150 30 Trade Global trade in 2016/17 (Jul/Jun, excluding malt) is projected to drop by 14% y/y, to 25.3m t. This is mainly 140 20 linked to smaller purchases by China and Saudi Arabia, but with shipments to Iran and parts of North Africa also weaker. The forecast is 0.2m t higher than in the 130 10 previous report, mostly reflecting an upward revision for Algeria, which is now seen buying a similar volume to last year, at 0.8m. 120 0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Owing to measures to boost demand for local maize, (est.) (f'cast) a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US China’s barley imports are forecast to contract by more than 30%, to 4.9m t. In Near East Asia, ample inventories In China, livestock sector use is seen dropping from could restrict purchases by Saudi Arabia and Iran to recent high levels, to 2.6m t (5.2m), owing to official 9.3m t (11.0m) and 1.2m (1.7m), respectively. policies aimed at encouraging consumption of domestic maize. Reflecting continued government measures to With weaker buying interest from some major importers, boost local meat and dairy production, coupled with ample coupled with a lower export surplus, the forecast for

13

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

shipments by the EU is reduced by 1.0m t from before, to a three-year low of 7.1m (10.8m). Projected exports OTHER COARSE GRAINS by Argentina are trimmed by 0.2m t, to 2.1m (2.6m), because of poorer harvest prospects. In contrast, sales by Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are lifted from SORGHUM previously as crops have exceeded expectations.

OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 Barley: China’s imports by origin  World sorghum production is placed 1.7m t m t 9 higher m/m, at 64.8m, up 3% y/y.

8  With larger crops boosting availabilities for food

7 use, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, consumption is seen expanding by 2% y/y. 6 ave.  Aggregate end-season inventories are 5 anticipated to expand by 6%, underpinned by an

4 Argentina increase in the major exporters. Ukraine 3  Reduced deliveries to China are predicted to Canada contribute to a heavy fall in traded volumes. 2 EU

Australia 1 Sorghum: Supply and demand summary 0 m t 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) (f'cast) 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y (est.) (f'cast) change RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Opening stocks 3.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 - 2.2% Production 58.3 64.3 62.9 64.8 + 2.9% With lower quotations in Australia offset by gains Total supply 61.7 68.8 67.3 69.0 + 2.6% elsewhere, the IGC GOI barley sub-Index was broadly steady m/m. In Australia, feed barley prices extended Total use 57.2 64.4 63.0 64.5 + 2.3% the previous month’s declines, dropping by US$13, to of which: Food 23.9 29.1 27.1 29.0 + 7.0% US$142 fob (Adelaide), amid sustained favourable crop Feed 26.0 29.2 27.9 27.5 - 1.3% conditions. However, because of disappointing yields, in Industrial 5.2 4.2 6.8 6.3 - 7.8% parts of the EU, prices in France edged slightly higher, to Closing stocks 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.5 + 6.1% US$156 fob (Rouen). Feed barley quotations in the Major exporters a) 1.7 1.1 1.8 2.2 + 17.9% Black Sea region rose by US$7 m/m, to US$154 fob, Trade (Jul/Jun) 6.5 11.8 11.2 8.3 - 25.7% partly because of currency movements, with advances a) Argentina, Australia, US. capped by good harvest results. World harvested area is projected to be broadly Israel purchased 45,000t of feed barley, likely from the unchanged in 2016/17, but with average yields expected Black Sea region, at US$166-US$170 c&f, Oct-Jan, to improve, production is seen rising by 3%, to 64.8m t. while Jordan bought 50,000t, at US$189 c&f, Jan. Owing to increases for the US and China, the figure is up by 1.7m t m/m. Feed barley: Export prices * August 2015 – August 2016 Sorghum: Production in selected countries m t US$ / t 240 Australia - (South Australia) 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y EU (France) (est.) (f'cast) change

215 Major exporters US 10.0 11.0 15.2 12.1 - 20.5%

190 Argentina 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.0 - 4.0% Australia 1.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 - 0.8% Selected others 165 + 21.4% 156 Mexico 8.5 6.3 5.6 6.8

142 Nigeria 5.3 6.7 6.2 6.4 + 2.4% 140 India 5.5 5.5 4.4 5.5 + 24.7% World total 58.3 64.3 62.9 64.8 + 2.9% 27-Jul-16 21-Oct-15 06-Apr-16 13-Jan-16 01-Jun-16 29-Jun-16 10-Feb-16 09-Mar-16 26-Aug-15 23-Sep-15 18-Nov-15 16-Dec-15 24-Aug-16 04-May-16 * Australia quotation one day ahead US crop conditions continued to be better than average, with 65% of fields rated good/excellent by 21 August, down only slightly from the previous year’s exceptionally high level. With yield expectations revised up, the output

14

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

forecast is lifted by 1.4m t, to 12.1m, but is still down by domestic feed ingredients, including maize, in place of 20% y/y on account of a steep drop in plantings. imported feedstuffs. Larger purchases by other buyers will only fractionally compensate; this includes Mexico, Acreage in Argentina is projected 2% lower y/y. Because where arrivals are projected to rise to a four-year peak of of comparatively low returns and limited export 800,000t (500,000t). opportunities, some farmers are likely to prefer alternatives, including maize and sunflowers. If yields Sorghum: US exports vs China imports are broadly in line with the recent average, output could m t reach 3.0m t (3.1m). 12 US exports In Australia, plantings in New South Wales and 10 China imports Queensland are scheduled to begin in September, lasting until January. After good winter rains, topsoil 8 moisture should be adequate for early field work. Amid strong competition from alternative crops and with 6 concerns about slowing Chinese demand, sowings could decline by 2% y/y. Assuming near-average yields, 4 production is placed at 2.0m t (2.0m). 2 Sorghum: World supply and demand 0

06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 (f'cast) m t m t 70 7

60 6 Tied to an expected reduction in China’s import requirements, US 2016/17 MY (Sep/Aug) shipments are < World consumption 50 Stocks > 5 < World production seen dropping steeply, to 6.1m t (8.5m). Australia’s exports in the year ending 31 March 2017 are 40 4 anticipated to be down sharply, to 1.0m t (1.6m), with

30 3 MY (Apr/Mar) sales by Argentina broadly steady, at 0.9m (0.9m), the bulk of which are typically to Japan. 20 2

10 1 RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

0 0 Reflecting firmer basis levels, US Gulf export prices 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 were modestly higher over the month, at US$178 fob, (est.) (f'cast) although gains were capped by worries about 2016/17 export prospects and weakness in CME maize futures. Reflecting upward adjustments for all demand components, global consumption in 2016/17 is Elsewhere, sorghum prices in Australia posted further projected 1.1m t higher than before, at 64.5m t (63.0m). steep falls amid sluggish domestic and international The y/y increase stems from an anticipated 7% demand, although losses in dollar-denominated values expansion of food uptake, to 29.0m t, tied to increases in (fob Brisbane) were limited by currency movements. In sub-Saharan Africa, where bigger outturns are set to Argentina, where the harvest was approaching boost availabilities. In contrast, feed use is expected to completion, Up River quotations were broadly steady contract marginally, to 27.5m t, as a steep fall in Asia – m/m, at US$151 fob. primarily in China – is only partly offset by growth elsewhere, including in the Americas. A smaller US crop Sorghum: Export prices * could result in a decline in industrial use as world August 2015 – August 2016 demand retreats by 8% y/y, to 6.3m t. US$ / t 300 Australia sorghum, fob Brisbane US maize, fob Gulf Due to an upgraded production outlook, end-season US sorghum, fob Gulf Argentina sorghum, fob Up River stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) 250 are pegged up 0.6m t from July, at a three-year high of 4.5m (4.3m). Within the total, major exporters’ 200 inventories are anticipated to rise by almost one-fifth, to 187 2.2m t, including US carryovers at 1.6m (1.2m). 178 168 150 151 Despite being lifted by 0.6m t m/m, global trade is predicted to contract by around one-quarter, to a three- year low of 8.3m t, albeit still well above average. After 100 the heavy purchases of the past two seasons, shipments 27-Jul-16 21-Oct-15 06-Apr-16 13-Jan-16 01-Jun-16 29-Jun-16 10-Feb-16 09-Mar-16 26-Aug-15 23-Sep-15 18-Nov-15 16-Dec-15 24-Aug-16 to China are seen dropping markedly, to 5.5m t (8.6m), 04-May-16 linked to official efforts to increase the utilisation of * Australia quotation one day ahead

15

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

restrict consumption in China. Because of competition OATS from other feed grains, the figure for the EU is slightly

lower m/m, at 6.7m t, only a modest increase y/y. OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 Oats: Consumption by country/region  Despite a small cut from before, production is m t forecast to be larger than average, at 23.0m t. 25

 A 3% rise in consumption is projected, led by Others further growth in the popularity of oat-based 20 Australia foods. China Brazil  Global stocks are seen reaching a seven-year 15 high, led by the EU. Likely stronger import demand in the US will contribute to increased CIS trade. 10 USA

5 Oats: Supply and demand summary EU m t 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y 0 (est.) (f'cast) change 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) (f'cast) Opening stocks 2.6 2.9 3.8 4.4 + 16.2% Production 23.8 23.0 22.6 23.0 + 2.1% Stocks at the end of 2016/17 (aggregate of respective Total supply 26.4 25.9 26.3 27.4 + 4.1% local marketing years) are projected to rise by 11%, to Total use 23.5 22.2 22.0 22.6 + 3.0% 4.9m t, a seven-year high, including a steep of which: Food 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 + 3.1% accumulation in the EU. Amid limited prospects for Feed 16.3 14.8 14.8 14.9 + 0.3% demand, EU inventories are projected to expand to a Industrial 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 + 0.0% historically high level of 2.8m t, a 35% y/y increase. Closing stocks 2.9 3.8 4.4 4.9 + 10.5% However, owing to an anticipated drop in output, the Major exporters a) 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.5 + 14.5% carryover in Canada is expected to contract to 0.5m t Trade (Jul/Jun) 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 + 2.9% (0.8m), the smallest in four years. Global trade in 2016/17 (Jul/Jun) is forecast to be up by 3%, to 2.4m t, a) Australia, Canada, EU led by an anticipated rise in shipments to the US from At 23.0m t, up by 2% y/y, the world production forecast Canada. is down by 0.2m m/m, with slight downgrades for the EU Oats: World supply and demand and Canada partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Compared to last year, larger crops are predicted in m t m t 30 < World consumption 7 Europe, the CIS and Australia. Conditions in most large < World production growers remained broadly favourable in August, Stocks > 25 6 maintaining the potential for better than average yields.

20 5 Oats: Production in selected countries m t 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y 15 4 (est.) (f'cast) change 10 3 Major exporters

EU-28 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.7 + 3.2% 5 2 Canada 3.9 3.0 3.4 3.0 - 11.9% Australia 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 + 23.1% 0 1 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Selected others (est.) (f'cast) Russia 4.9 5.3 4.5 4.7 + 3.6% US 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 - 14.6% RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

World total 23.8 23.0 22.6 23.0 + 2.1% US oats futures were seasonally weak as North American harvesting accelerated; the nearby contract World consumption is forecast to increase by 3%, to dropped by a net 14% m/m. A generally soft tone in 22.6m t, mainly driven by sustained growth in food other grains markets added pressure, while only limited demand. This is projected to expand by 3%, to 5.0m t, buying activity was reported, with millers’ nearby needs matching the average pace of increase in the past five well covered. In the EU, domestic prices edged higher in years. A small rise in feed use is also anticipated, the UK, but currency weakness aided export underpinned by more ample availabilities in Europe and competitiveness. A good outlook for the crop pressured the CIS. However, a reduced domestic crop will probably values in Australia.

16

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

to 1.1m t (1.2m), mostly in the major exporters, although RYE these are seen remaining close to the five-year average.

OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 World trade is projected to recover to 345,000t (303,000t) in 2016/17 (Jul/Jun). Although local output is  Led by a small increase in major exporting expected to be higher in the US, solid demand is seen countries, world production is forecast to expand underpinning import growth. Larger US purchases will by 2%, to 13.2m t. likely mainly be sourced from Canada owing to attractive prices, with Canada’s shipments projected to rise to  Global consumption is expected to decline for the 75,000t (50,000t). Interest in EU supplies from buyers in third consecutive year, to 13.3m t. the US could therefore be weaker and exports are  A small stocks contraction is envisaged at the forecast to retreat to 150,000t (160,000t). end of 2016/17, to 1.1m t.  Trade is seen recovering from the previous Rye: World supply and demand

season’s low level. m t m t

24 4 Rye: Supply and demand summary < World consumption Stocks > m t < World production

13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y 18 3 (est.) (f'cast) change Opening stocks 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.2 - 33.5% Production 16.9 15.3 12.9 13.2 + 2.3% 12 2 Total supply 17.8 17.0 14.7 14.4 - 2.0% Total use 16.1 15.2 13.5 13.3 - 1.6% 6 1 of which: Food 7.1 7.2 6.5 6.5 + 0.2% Feed 6.3 5.2 4.3 4.2 - 3.5%

Industrial 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 - 3.2% 0 0 Closing stocks 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.1 - 4.3% 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) (f'cast) Major exporters a) 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.9 - 7.3% Trade (Jul/Jun) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 + 13.9% a) Canada, EU, Russia RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

Global production is forecast to climb by 2% in Because of uncertainty about domestic harvest results, 2016/17, to 13.2m t. Because of a small increase in market activity remained quiet in the EU (Germany), with acreage, crops are forecast to be slightly larger in most milling rye prices slightly stronger m/m. This reflected growing regions, but with outturns still below average. reports that untimely rains had caused quality damage Incorporating a minor yield downgrade for the EU and with some of the crop unsuitable for food or feed, (Germany), the world figure is trimmed by 0.1m t from sales for biogas production were said to be increasing. before. Along with seasonal weakness, currency movements contributed to lower milling rye values in Ukraine. Rye: Production in selected countries m t Rye: Local milling prices 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y August 2015 – August 2016

US$ / t (est.) (f'cast) change 160 EU (Germany) Ukraine Major exporters EU-28 10.4 8.9 7.7 7.8 + 1.5% 150

Russia 3.4 3.3 2.1 2.3 + 9.1% 143 140 Canada 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 + 35.0% 138

Selected others 130 Ukraine 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 - 7.9% World total16.915.312.913.2+ 2.3% 120

110 Rye consumption is projected to decline for the third consecutive year, to 13.3m t, mainly because of weaker 28-Jul-16 22-Oct-15 07-Apr-16 14-Jan-16 02-Jun-16 30-Jun-16 11-Feb-16 10-Mar-16 27-Aug-15 24-Sep-15 19-Nov-15 17-Dec-15 25-Aug-16 feed demand amid plentiful supplies of alternatives. A 05-May-16 modest stocks contraction is forecast at the end of 2016/17 (aggregate of respective local marketing years)

17

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

Consumption RICE Incorporating a number of adjustments for key

consumers, total rice uptake is forecast to contract for OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16 the first time in 11 years, to 475m t (478m). With official monthly data pegging India’s centrally-held  Global rice output is estimated at a three-year low (government) stocks at a higher than expected level, in 2015/16. coupled with a slight fall in output and robust export progress, total use in that country is marked down, to  World consumption is expected to decline for the 93.5m t (99.0m). However, this is partly offset by an first time in more than a decade. anticipated rise in consumption in China, while  Aggregate carryovers are likely to contract, population gains should underpin demand elsewhere, including a reduction in the major exporters, but including in sub-Saharan Africa. would still be above average.  Global trade is seen falling in 2016 as improved Rice: Centrally-held stocks in India local availabilities suppress import demand in m t (milled basis) key buyers. 45 Stocks 40 Rice: Supply and demand summary As at 1 October m t (milled basis) 35 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y 30 (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) change 25

Opening stocks 116 116 116 114 - 1.6% 20

Production 478 479 473 484 + 2.3% 15 Total supply 594 594 589 598 + 1.5% 10 Total use 478 478 475 482 + 1.6% Closing stocks 116 116 114 116 + 1.4% 5 Major exporters a) 38 32 28 26 - 6.0% 0 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Trade (Jan/Dec) 42 42 40 40 - 0.0% Source: Food Corporation of India a) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam Stocks Production Owing to historic revisions for some Asian countries, Reflecting the impact of challenging weather patterns on global carryovers (aggregate of respective local harvests in Asian producers, 2015/16 global rice output marketing years) are placed much higher than in July, at is estimated to have contracted for the first time in six 114.5m t (116.4m). years, to 473m t (479m). This included smaller harvests in India and Thailand, the world’s leading exporters. Inventories in China, which account for more than half of Prospects in South America, notably in Argentina and the world total, are seen up by 7% y/y, to 61.6m t. Brazil, were hampered by adverse conditions, while the However, this will likely be outweighed by reductions US crop was significantly smaller on below-average elsewhere, with major exporters’ stocks retreating by plantings. 4.0m t, to 28.1m. Although India’s total end-season carryovers, which include centrally-held inventories, are Rice: Production in selected countries predicted at 18.5m t (17.7m), stocks in Thailand are m t (milled basis) likely to contract sharply, by more than 40%, to 5.9m, on 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y continued government efforts to offload reserves. (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) change Major exporters Trade India 106.7 105.5 103.6 106.5 + 2.8% Due to a slower than anticipated pace of shipments to Vietnam 28.0 28.8 28.4 28.5 + 0.4% Asian markets against the backdrop of increased supplies, the outlook for global trade in 2016 (Jan/Dec) Thailand 20.3 18.7 16.7 18.6 + 11.9% is cut by 2.2m t, to 40.3m (41.9m). + 27.0% US 6.1 7.1 6.1 7.8 Pakistan 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.9 + 3.2% Forecast imports by the Philippines are lowered by Selected others 0.4m t, to 1.5m, translating into a decrease of one- China 142.5 144.6 145.8 146.4 + 0.4% quarter y/y. Despite El Niño-related crop worries, official Indonesia 36.3 35.6 36.2 36.8 + 1.8% monthly data show that stocks held by the National Food Bangladesh 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.5 + 0.0% Authority, the state procurement agency, were especially Philippines 11.9 11.9 11.3 11.8 + 4.4% comfortable, at more than 1.0m t as at end-June. Brazil 8.2 8.5 7.2 8.2 + 12.6% Accordingly, this is expected to contain the potential for substantial world market purchases in 2016. World total 477.7 478.8 472.7 483.7 + 2.3%

18

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

Rice: Philippines’ stocks, by sector Rice: India kharif crop planting progress

m t (milled basis) m ha 4.5 40 Households 2016/17 4.0 Commerical 35 2015/16 NFA 3.5 30 3.0 25 2.5 20 2.0

1.5 15

1.0 10

0.5 5

0.0 0 10 Jun 17 Jun 24 Jun 1 Jul 8 Jul 15 Jul 22 Jul 29 Jul 5 Aug 12 Aug 19 Aug Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Source: Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics Source: Government data

Elsewhere, shipments to China and Iran are pegged Rice output in China is anticipated to edge up to a fresh lower than before, at 4.2m t (4.2m) and 1.1m (1.4m), record of 146.4m t (145.8m), tied to bigger middle and respectively. late-season seedings. Together with improved harvests in other countries, production in Far East Asia could Outside of Asia, forecast deliveries to Nigeria, the reach a peak of 432.6m t (425.0m). biggest market in sub-Saharan Africa, are trimmed to 2.4m t, the annual decline of 7% linked to official efforts At 7.8m t, the US rice outturn in 2016/17 is forecast to be to prevent cross-border trade, as well as a reduction in more than one-quarter larger y/y, almost entirely linked purchasing power due to broader economic challenges. to heavy growth of long-grain sowings. However, amid recent heightened concerns about the impact of adverse With exportable supplies boosted by releases of state weather in some states, the outlook could be reserves, dispatches by Thailand in 2016 are seen downgraded. Combining was 15% complete as at 21 edging up, to 10.1m t (9.8m). In contrast, exports by August, broadly in line with normal. India and Vietnam are placed at 9.2m t (10.9m) and 6.0m (6.6m), respectively. Consumption World rice uptake is projected to rebound to a new peak OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 of 482m t on continued population increases and associated growth in food consumption in Asia.  The global rice outturn could recover markedly Nevertheless, at a little below 2%, the y/y expansion on better crop outcomes in Asia. would be tamer than in the past due to the continued  Uptake is pegged to rise by almost 2% y/y on diversification of diets in some countries as incomes rise. population-driven increases in food use in Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, per capita consumption may be contained by potentially reduced imports.  While global stocks are set to recover slightly, major exporters’ inventories are likely to fall as Rice: Supply and demand the Thai government offloads reserves. m t (milled basis) m t (milled basis)  Trade is anticipated to be little changed in 2017 500 50 < World consumption and, at more than 40m t, in line with average. < World production 475 Stocks: major exporters a) > 40 Production World rice output is tentatively projected to recover in 450 30 2016/17, by 2%, to an all-time peak of 484m t. The outlook assumes that weather patterns will be much 425 20 improved for cultivation in key Asian producers. This includes India, where summer-sown (kharif) plantings have advanced well on a generally beneficial monsoon. 400 10 According to government data, seeding was complete on 34.6m ha by 19 August, an expansion of 4% y/y. Based 375 0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 on a bigger area across both kharif and rabi seasons, (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) total rice production in India is seen at 106.5m t a) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam (103.6m), broadly matching the 2013/14 peak.

19

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

Stocks With an anticipated record outturn set to boost global OILSEEDS supplies to peak levels, inventories (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are predicted to increase to 116.0m t (114.5m). Although major SOYABEANS exporters’ stocks could decline slightly, this is expected to be more than offset by accumulation elsewhere, including in China. Incorporating revisions for a number SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK of countries, the world figure is placed significantly  With key producers expected to cut bumper higher than in last month’s report. crops, world output could expand by 3% y/y to a fresh record in 2016/17. Trade  Global consumption is predicted to reach a new At a fraction above 40m t, global traded volumes are high on growing demand for soyabean products projected to show little change in 2017. However, with in Asia and the major exporters. more than four months to go until the new trade year begins, the outlook for availabilities in key importers is  Total supplies are seen at peak levels but, owing subject to marked uncertainty. While improved supplies to rising use, end-season stocks are projected to could support larger sales by Vietnam, to 6.9m t (6.0m), fall for the second successive year. shipments by Thailand and India will likely be smaller,  Trade is anticipated to ascend to a high of around at 9.5m (10.1m) and 8.7m (9.2m), respectively, with 136m t, with deliveries to Far East Asia shipments by the former country likely capped by a accounting for nearly 80% of the total. smaller exportable surplus. Soyabeans: Supply and demand summary RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS m t 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y White and parboiled rice prices in Asia softened in the (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) change period since the last GMR, the IGC GOI sub-index falling by 7% to its lowest level in more than three months. The Opening stocks 25 29 37 33 - 10.4% market in Thailand was weighed by sluggish Production 284 320 316 325 + 3.1% international demand and increasing secondary (off- Total supply 310 349 353 359 + 1.7% season) crop arrivals, while additional pressure Total use 281 312 320 327 + 2.4% stemmed from efforts by the government to offload state of which: Crush 250 277 284 291 + 2.4% reserves through a series of auctions. At US$369 fob, Food 16 17 17 18 + 4.6% 5% broken was down by US$43 m/m. Feed 14 17 17 17 + 2.8% Closing stocks 29 37 33 32 - 5.4% a) In India, market participants were focused on the Major exporters 10 15 17 16 - 4.9% progress of kharif (summer-sown) plantings, which Trade (Oct/Sep) 113 127 132 136 + 2.8% advanced rapidly against the backdrop of generally good a) Argentina, Brazil, US monsoon rains. Offers for 5% broken fell by US$21, to US$377 fob. Values in Pakistan retreated sharply, by OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16 14%, to US$352 fob, ahead of the arrival of new crop availabilities, although losses were capped by recent The Council’s estimate of global soyabean output in heavy rains and logistical constraints. In contrast, 2015/16 is broadly unchanged from previously, at 316m sentiment in Vietnam was underpinned by expectations t. This represents a y/y contraction of about 1% owing to for increased sales to the Philippines, with 25% broken disappointing crops in South America, especially Brazil, up fractionally, at US$332 fob. and, to a lesser extent, Asia. Nevertheless, the outturn is still some 40m t bigger than the prior five-year average. Rice: Export prices August 2015 – August 2016 World consumption is seen expanding by 2%, to an all-

US$ / t time peak of 320m t, on rising demand for soyabean 450 Thai 5% Broken Pakistan 5% Broken Viet 5% Broken India 5% Broken products. And despite a slight increase in total availabilities, end-season carryovers (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are likely to decline to 400 33.3m t (37.2m). 377 369 Equating to the fifth consecutive year of growth, trade in 352 350 2015/16 (Oct/Sep) is pegged to reach a record of 345 132.2m t (126.8m), with China’s arrivals at 84.0m (80.1m). After initially progressing robustly, local MY

300 (Feb/Jan) shipments by Brazil slowed markedly in June and July, in part reflecting a disappointing crop and tighter than anticipated export availabilities. 27-Jul-16 21-Oct-15 06-Apr-16 13-Jan-16 01-Jun-16 29-Jun-16 10-Feb-16 09-Mar-16 26-Aug-15 23-Sep-15 18-Nov-15 16-Dec-15 24-Aug-16 04-May-16

20

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

Soyabeans: Accordingly, Midwest yield expectations have been Progress of MY (Feb/Jan) shipments by Brazil * raised and, together with an anticipated 1% expansion in the area for harvesting, 2016/17 output is forecast 4.0m t m t 45 higher than in July, at an all-time peak of 109.0m 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 40 (106.9m). Canada’s 2016/17 outturn is pegged to decline to 5.7m t (6.2m) on a return to trend yields. 35 30 In Brazil, 2016/17 crop planting is set to begin in the 25 main producing state of Mato Grosso on 15 September

20 following the expiration of the soyabean-free period. Prospects will be shaped by the broader economic and 15 financial backdrop, with government support to farmers 10 subject to increased borrowing costs. As the 5 accompanying chart illustrates, both local and

0 international soyabean values are above year ago Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Cumultiave levels. However, trends have diverged in recent months, total US dollar-denominated domestic prices falling, partly * Cumulative total refers to February-July. due to currency movements, and potentially serving as a disincentive ahead of the new seeding campaign. With a further slowing likely, especially as northern hemisphere new crop supplies come on stream, full Soybeans: Changes in prices and the value of the season dispatches are expected to be broadly steady domestic currency in Brazil * y/y, at 54.5m t (54.6m), while Argentina’s MY (Apr/Mar) % Change sales are seen decreasing to 9.8m (11.7m). Due to 20 tightness at other origins, US export commitments have Local price swelled in recent weeks to total 52.8m t as at 11 August, 15 Global price BRL per USD up by 4% on a year earlier and exceeding the full 10 2015/16 (Sep/Aug) forecast by 1.6m. 5

OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17 0 Change since Change -5 1 Jun y/y

Production -10 Reflecting an upgrade for the US, world soyabean output in 2016/17 is projected 4m t higher, at an all-time peak of -15 325m, the 9m y/y increase stemming from area -20 increases and assumed yield gains in key producers. While northern hemisphere prospects appear * Local price refers to Paranagua, global price to the IGC GOI soyabeans favourable, the global outlook is tentative since it sub-Index. critically depends on crops in South America, where planting will not commence until next month. The area for harvesting in 2016/17 is tentatively set to expand further but, at close to 3%, would be less than US crops are developing well, with nearly 90% of plants the prior five-year average (7%). Although full-season setting pods and about three-quarters of fields in good or maize sowings may increase, reports suggest that, excellent condition as at 21 August, representing marked owing to early fieldwork in some areas, notably in Rio improvements on last year. Grande do Sul, growers might also consider seeding a soyabean crop later in the season. Assuming some Soyabeans: US average yields improvement in yields, production is predicted at 101.0m t (95.4m). t/ha 3.4 With cutting of Argentina’s 2015/16 outturn only just 3.2 complete, fieldwork for next season is still some time away. Following the elimination of export duties, growers 3.0 are expected to favour alternative crops, including maize

2.8 and sunflowerseed. Accordingly, with both plantings and the area for threshing likely to contract slightly, soyabean 2.6 production could drop by 5% y/y, to 56.0m t. Coupled

2.4 with crop outcomes elsewhere, output in South America could recover to 172m t, in line with the 2014/15 record. 2.2

2.0 Outside of the main producing regions, the harvest in 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 India is seen recovering to 11.4m t (9.1m), as good (est.) (proj.) monsoon precipitation boosts yield potential in key

21

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

growing areas. As at 18 August, fieldwork was well on upgrades for Argentina and the US, with inventories advanced in the key growing states of Madhya Pradesh, in the latter placed at 7.6m t (6.9m). Maharashtra and Rajasthan. China’s crop is placed at a four-year high of 12.6m t (11.6m) on bigger sowings. Trade World trade is predicted to expand to a record of 135.9m Soyabeans: Production in selected countries t (132.2m) in 2016/17, stemming from larger shipments m t to Asian markets. In China, domestic production is likely 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y to rise but, with supplies mainly geared to the country’s (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) change food industry, expanding high-protein meal requirements for feeding must be satisfied by bigger world market Major exporters purchases. Shaped by an expected increase in demand US 91.4 106.9 106.9 109.0 + 1.9% from the nation’s huge feed sector, deliveries are seen at Brazil 86.1 96.2 95.4 101.0 + 5.8% 88.0m t (84.0m). Argentina 53.4 61.4 58.8 56.0 - 4.8% Selected others While EU soyameal needs are largely met by direct China 12.0 12.2 11.6 12.6 + 8.6% imports, typically from South American origins, this India 11.9 10.4 9.1 11.4 + 24.8% year’s disappointing rapeseed harvest is likely to ensure Paraguay 8.2 8.1 8.8 8.9 + 1.4% that demand for soyabeans for processing is also firm. Canada 5.4 6.0 6.2 5.7 - 8.2% At 13.3m t, imports are projected little changed y/y. Ukraine 2.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 + 6.7% Consistent with the forecast expansion of trade and, Uruguay 3.3 3.3 2.0 3.0 + 50.0% taking account of the upgraded outlook for production Bolivia 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.1 + 0.8% and supplies, US MY (Sep/Aug) shipments are pegged World total 284.4 320.4 315.7 325.4 + 3.1% 0.8m t up from previously, at 53.1m (51.2m). Assuming a bumper outturn swells availabilities for export, Consumption dispatches by Brazil in the MY beginning 1 February Linked to growth in uptake in Asia and the major 2017 could reach 57.5m t (54.5m). exporters, world soyabean consumption is projected at a record of 327m t (320m) in 2016/17, shaped by rising RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS demand for the inclusion of high-protein oilseed meals in Global soyabean markets posted modest gains in the feed mixes in Asia, while the relatively smaller food and period since the last report was released, the IGC GOI industrial sectors will likely also contribute to growth. soyabeans sub-Index increasing by around 2%, Total use in China is anticipated to reach an all-time including net gains at all major origins. peak of 102.4m t (96.9m).

Nearby US CME futures advanced by 3% as firm Soyabeans: World supply and demand domestic and international demand buoyed market m t m t 350 40 sentiment, with some support, too, from gains in soyaoil. < World consumption However, upside was capped by favourable weather for 325 < World production 35 Midwest yield potential, highlighted by USDA’s August Stocks: major exporters a) > 300 30 WASDE report, which lifted forecast 2016/17 production at an all-time high. Additionally, profit taking and 275 25 technical weakness pressured at times. Together with

250 20 firmer export premiums, Gulf quotations were up by 2% m/m, at US$419 fob. 225 15

200 10 Soyabeans: Export prices August 2015 – August 2016 175 5 US$ / t 500 150 0 US No.2, fob Gulf Brazil, fob Paranagua Argentina, fob Up River 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) 450 a) Argentina, Brazil, US 438 419 417 Stocks 400 A bumper global crop could boost soyabean availabilities to peak levels but, with uptake expanding further, end- 350 season carryovers (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are predicted to drop for the second consecutive year. Moreover, incorporating a y/y 300 reduction in the major exporters, global stocks are seen 27-Jul-16 21-Oct-15 06-Apr-16 01-Jun-16 29-Jun-16 falling by 5% y/y, to 31.5m t. However, the figure is lifted 13-Jan-16 10-Feb-16 09-Mar-16 26-Aug-15 23-Sep-15 18-Nov-15 16-Dec-15 24-Aug-16 04-May-16

22

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

Partly reflecting gains in the US, export quotations in South America were also up marginally m/m, with values RAPESEED/CANOLA in Brazil rising by 2%, to US$438 fob Paranagua, on tightening supplies. In Argentina, Up River offers were marginally higher, at US$417 fob. SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK

 2016/17 world rapeseed/canola output is forecast to decline by 5% y/y, with much smaller crops SOYAMEAL expected in the EU, CIS and China.

 Total use is set to fall amid tight supplies and World soyameal trade in 2015/16 (Oct/Sep) is ample availabilities of other oilseeds, but anticipated to reach a record of 64.3m t, an increase of carryovers are still seen at a 13-year low. around 5% y/y. Owing to another disappointing domestic  World trade is tentatively projected to decline, harvest, the EU is set to secure larger quantities from including reduced sales to China and the EU. the global market, its imports pegged to rise to 21.7m t (20.9m). Additionally, expanding demand for feed Rapeseed/canola: ingredients should ensure growth in shipments to key Supply and demand summary Asian markets. m t 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y Aggregate dispatches by Argentina and Brazil, South (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) change America’s leading exporters, are forecast to total 46.3m t (40.9m). In contrast, US shipments are likely to contract Opening stocks 3.8 6.1 5.7 4.5 - 20.3% by 9% from the previous season’s peak. Production 71.6 71.4 68.9 65.2 - 5.4% Total supply 75.4 77.5 74.5 69.7 - 6.5% In 2016/17, traded volumes are projected to rise further, Total use 69.371.870.066.0- 5.7% albeit more slowly than in the past, to 66.0m t (64.3m), of which: Crush 66.3 68.5 67.1 63.3 - 5.6% on demand from leading importers. With recent field Feed 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 - 11.9% reports indicating that rapeseed crops in the main EU Food 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 - producers could fall well short of expectations, Closing stocks 6.1 5.7 4.5 3.7 - 19.3% shipments to the region are seen edging up, to 22.2m t major exporters a) 3.4 2.8 1.3 1.0 - 18.4% (21.7m). North African arrivals could fall slightly, but Trade (Oct/Sep) 16.3 14.1 13.9 12.9 - 7.0% would still be historically high. a) Australia, Canada, Ukraine

Soyameal: Imports by North Africa OUTLOOK FOR 2015/16

m t 5 Global rapeseed/canola production in 2015/16 is Egypt Algeria Morocco Others estimated to have fallen by 4% y/y, to 68.9m t, on a

4 smaller harvested area despite record yields. Consumption and ending stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are expected to 3 decrease to 70.0m t (71.8m) and 4.5m (5.7m), respectively, with trade (Oct/Sep) placed 1% lower, at 2 13.9m t.

1 OUTLOOK FOR 2016/17

Production 0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 The 2016/17 world production outlook is raised (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) fractionally from July, to 65.2m t (68.9m), as improved prospects in Canada more than offset reductions for the US exports are forecast to rebound to 11.2m t (10.7m), EU and Ukraine, where combining is nearing completion. as an expected record soyabean outturn boosts The area for harvesting is seen down marginally y/y, at availabilities for processing. Tentatively assuming 33.5m ha (34.0m), while yields are tentatively projected bumper crops, sales by Argentina and Brazil are likely to to contract by 4%, to 1.9t/ha. be close to peak levels. Owing to late-season rains, which resulted in pest Elsewhere, shipments by India could recover from the infestation and disease in some regions, the EU previous year’s low, to 1.0m t (0.2m), as good monsoon production forecast is lowered by a further 0.7m t, to rains enhance yields, resulting in a large crop. However, 20.2m (22.0m), including reductions for Germany, France, volumes would still be almost 2.0m t lower than the prior Poland and the UK. The accompanying chart illustrates five-year average. Consequently, China’s exports, how prospects have been steadily downgraded for those mainly to Asian markets, are anticipated to expand countries over a number of months. slightly, to 1.9m t (1.7m).

23

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

Rapeseed: Monthly forecasts of 2016/17 EU China – which together account for more than 60% of production, by country, vs. yields world requirements – is anticipated to drop to five-year lows following disappointing local harvests. m t t/ha 30 6 Germany France Poland UK Others Stocks 25 Yields > 5 With output seen contracting for a third successive year, GMR GMR GMR GMR GMR 464 465 466 467 468 GMR world stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing 469 20 4 years) are projected at a 13-year low of 3.7m t (4.5m). Within the total, inventories in the major exporters are 15 3 expected to drop by almost one-fifth y/y, to 1.0m t, linked to falls in Canada and Australia. 10 2 Rapeseed/canola: World supply and demand

5 1 m t m t 80 4 < World consumption 0 0 < World production 16/17 16/17 16/17 16/17 16/17 16/17 15/16 Five-yr Stocks: major exporters a) > (f'cast) (est.) ave. 70 3

Output in Ukraine is placed marginally lower than before, at 1.2m t (1.7m). While productivity is still seen 60 2 close to last year’s record, the area for cutting is trimmed to 456,000ha (671,000ha), in line with latest official data. Combining of Russia’s crop is in the early stages, with production put at 1.1m t (1.0m). 50 1

Canada’s outturn is anticipated at 17.0m t (17.2m), up 40 0 1.1m from previously on field reports indicating better 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 than expected yields. Production in Australia is pegged (est.) (f'cast) (proj.) at 3.2m t (2.9m). However, that figure could be revised a) Australia, Canada, Ukraine higher in coming months in view of good soil moisture and the likelihood of above normal precipitation during Trade the crucial flowering months. Trade in 2016/17 (Oct/Sep) is provisionally seen at 12.9m t (13.9m), with volumes expected to be restricted Rapeseed/canola: Production in selected countries by ample and competitively-priced availabilities of m t alternatives. Sales to China and the EU are predicted to 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y decline to 3.9m t (4.2m) and 3.1m (3.2m), respectively.

(est.) (f'cast) (proj.) change Consistent with the projected drop in global import Major exporters demand, MY (Aug/Jul) exports by Canada are seen at Canada 18.6 16.4 17.2 17.0 - 1.2% 8.8m t (10.3m), with Ukraine’s MY (Jul/Jun) shipments Australia 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 + 10.0% also lower, at 1.0m (1.4m). In contrast, shipments from Ukraine 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.2 - 32.4% Australia could expand to 2.4m t (2.1m), with Selected others availabilities likely boosted by a larger harvest. EU-28 21.0 24.4 22.0 20.2 - 8.2% China 14.5 14.8 14.9 12.6 - 15.2% RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

India 6.7 5.1 5.8 6.5 + 13.0% Mainly shaped by trends in soyabeans, ICE canola World total 71.6 71.4 68.9 65.2 - 5.4% futures firmed by up to 3% over the past month. Additional support stemmed from concerns about Consumption excessive moisture in the Prairies, while a bullishly- interpreted production forecast by Statistics Canada Reflecting tight supplies and good availabilities of other added to the positive tone. oilseeds and products, global use is forecast to dip by

6% y/y, to 66.0m t, down slightly from before. At 8.5m t, Matif rapeseed futures were underpinned by diminished consumption in Canada is expected to broadly match crop prospects in the EU, as forecasts for several key the previous season’s record, underpinned by continued producers, including Germany and France, were firm demand for canola products in domestic and downgraded due to adverse weather. international markets. Elsewhere, uptake in the EU and

24

IGC GMR 469 – 25 August 2016

the traditional seasonal slowdown. The Baltic sub- OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET Indices for respective segments were up by almost 3% DEVELOPMENTS and 8%, respectively, although still down from a year ago. Fixtures included a trip from the EU (Denmark) to the US Gulf at US$6,000 per day, while rumours The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) advanced moderately in the emerged more recently of a voyage from the US Gulf to past month, to settle at a four-week peak on 24 August, India at US$13,500 daily. largely tied to a recovery in rates for the largest carrying vessels. Together with relatively modest increases in the Baltic Exchange sub-Indices – Supramax and Handysize segments, this more than Grains and oilseeds carrying sectors offset declines in Panamax values. However, against the August 2015 - August 2016 backdrop of a global market that is characterised by Rebased, 24 Aug 2015 = 100 excess tonnage and underlying economic worries, the 120 BDI was still about one-quarter lower than a year earlier. Panamax Supramax 100 Summary of dry bulk freight markets Handysize

y/y 80 GMR 469 Change* change 60 Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ** 706 + 4.0% - 27.1% sub-Indices: 40 Capesize 910 + 13.3% - 35.1% Panamax 706 - 6.1% - 32.9% 20 Supramax 706 + 3.2% - 24.3% Jul-16 Apr-16 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Handysize 425 + 8.4% - 9.4% May-16

Source: Baltic Exchange, * Change vs. GMR 468, ** 4 January 1985 = 1000 The Table provides a snapshot of market developments Following the previous month’s drop in quotations, on key grains and oilseeds trade routes and highlights Capesize sector values posted a net gain of 13%. mostly solid increases during the month of July. Sentiment was underpinned by good levels of activity on key shipping routes for heavy raw materials, notably Summary of freight rates on selected routes from Western Australia to China. Nevertheless, the y/y fall stood at 35%, steeper than in any of the other dry US$/t GMR 469 Change * y/y bulk segments. change

Panamax rates exhibited mixed trends during August. US (Gulf) to: The market was initially weighed by reduced spot EU (ARAH) 18 -5.3% -10.0% business volumes and increasing tonnage availability in China (Dalian) 31 -3.1% -22.5% South America and at the US Gulf, despite reports of Japan 30 -3.2% -21.1% firm demand for new crop grains shipments from the Mexico 18 -5.3% -10.0% Black Sea region. In the second half of the month, an Canada (St. Lawrence) to: increasingly positive tone prevailed on gains in Atlantic EU (ARAH) 13 0.0% -23.5% markets, while quotations at the US Gulf edged up on China (Dalian) 34 0.0% -19.0% fresh enquiries for dispatches of grains and oilseeds to Japan 36 0.0% -16.3% Far East Asian markets. More recently, an upbeat mood Argentina to: was also noted in the Pacific, with charterers looking to EU (ARAH) 14 -12.5% -30.0% secure tonnage for both short-period trips and time- Mexico 21 -4.5% -25.0% charters. Nevertheless, the Baltic Panamax sub-Index Brazil to: posted a net loss of 6%, taking the annual fall to one- EU (ARAH) 22 -4.3% -24.1% third. China (Dalian) 17 -5.6% …

Among reported fixtures in late-August, a trip from the US EU (France, Rouen) to: Gulf to Far East Asia was fixed at US$11,000 daily plus a Algeria 19 -5.0% -13.6% US$270,000 ballast bonus, while a voyage from Brazil’s Egypt (Mediterranean) 20 -4.8% -9.1% Santos port to China was completed at US$7,450 per day, Morocco 23 0.0% 0.0% together with a bonus of US$245,000. Black Sea to: Egypt (Alexandria) 16 0.0% -15.8% Supramax and Handysize sectors were higher when Tunisia 19 0.0% -17.4% compared to the end of July, with rates from the US Gulf Australia (East coast) to: buoyed by demand for new crop grains shipments, with China (Dalian) 12 9.1% -7.7% ongoing business from the Black Sea region adding Yemen 30 3.4% -3.2% support at times, more than offsetting weakness in South EU (ARAH) refers to Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, * Change vs. GMR 468 America. In Europe, activity was somewhat muted due to For detailed information and additional routes, refer to Table 31

25

GMR 469 – 25 August 2016 IGC

On 5 August 2016, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety NATIONAL POLICY AND stated that no unapproved GM material in wheat or flour OTHER DEVELOPMENTS imported from the US state of Washington has been discovered. However, shipments will continue to be tested. LATEST NATIONAL TRADE – RELATED MEASURES USA: On 29 July 2016, USDA announced that 22 unapproved GM wheat plants had recently been EGYPT: The government announced on 10 August 2016 discovered growing in a fallow field in Washington. On 5 that the rice export ban will remain in place. No further August, authorities announced that quarantined wheat details were made available. harvested from the farmer’s other fields had tested negative for the presence of GM material and will be On 15 August, Reuters reported that traders had allowed to enter the market place. received official notification of tighter agriculture quarantine regulations, with grain shipments suspected ZAMBIA: In order to safeguard food security, the of any level of contaminant, including ergot fungus, to be government introduced on 23 August 2016 a prevented from offloading until testing is complete. precautionary ban on maize exports, effective Previously, rules allowed for testing after discharge. immediately.

INDIA: According to the Commerce Ministry, the government permitted on 1 August 2016 the export of OTHER NATIONAL POLICY basmati rice through land custom stations on borders DEVELOPMENTS with Bangladesh and Nepal. CHINA: On 10 August 2016, the government announced in its latest five-year plan for science and technology to JAPAN: Following reports of an unapproved genetically 2020, schemes to develop genetically modified varieties modified (GM) wheat strain in the US state of of maize and soyabeans as part of efforts to raise the Washington, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and efficiency of its agriculture sector. No further details were Fisheries temporarily suspended on 1 August 2016 made available. certain imports of US wheat (all white wheat for food consumption and WW from the US West Coast for feed The Ministry of Finance stated on 10 August 2016 that use) until a proper testing system of incoming shipments the government will allocate CNY30bn (US$4.5bn) in is put in place. It also suspended the distribution of all subsidies for maize farmers in four provinces for previously purchased US wheat. 2016/17.

RUSSIA: On 22 August 2016, the government lowered EGYPT: The government reported on 10 August 2016 the duty on sunflowerseed exports outside the member that farmers will be paid EGP2,300-EGP2,400/t states of the Eurasian Customs Union (Armenia, (US$259-US$270) for rice during the harvest which Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia) from begins this month. 9.9%, but no less than €14.81/t (US$17.78), to 6.5% (US$11.05), applicable to contracts concluded on or after 1 September. OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

EU: Euronext announced on 2 August 2016 that an extra SOUTH KOREA: The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety delivery point at Rouen will be offered for its milling released on 29 July 2016 a statement containing wheat futures from September 2017. No further details quarantine measures for US wheat imports following were made available. reports of the discovery of an unapproved GM strain in the state of Washington. Distribution and sales of already imported grain will be temporarily halted.

26

Starch: Use of grains by country QUARTERLY UPDATE m t 120

100 INDUSTRIAL USE OF GRAINS Other

Canada 80 World industrial use of grains EU a) m t 60 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y USA (est.) (f'cast) change 40 China Ethanol 171.7 173.9 175.7 178.3 1.4% of which: biofuels* 154.5 156.6 158.7 161.1 1.5% 20 Starch 107.0 112.0 113.7 116.9 2.8% Brewing 37.3 37.7 36.8 37.1 0.8% 0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Others/unspec 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 6.7% (est.) (f'cast) TOTAL 316.6 324.2 327.0 333.0 1.8% a) EU-27 to 2012/13, EU-28 from 2013/14 of which: USA 164.7 164.7 167.6 168.7 0.7% Biofuels*: Use of grains by country China58.762.464.266.43.4% m t EU-2835.636.535.536.83.7% 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 y/y Canada 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.5 0.4% (est.) (f'cast) change Brazil 4.8 5.2 4.8 5.5 13.6% Japan 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.5 1.6% USA 131.5 132.5 135.3 136.6 1.0% Russia 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.4 0.7% of which: maize 130.1 132.1 132.1 134.0 1.4% Mexico 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.3 3.4% sorghum 1.2 0.2 3.0 2.4 -20.0% Argentina 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 1.0% EU-28 10.5 10.7 9.8 10.7 9.7%

* excluding non-fuel uses of which: maize 5.7 5.7 4.9 5.8 18.4% wheat 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.0% World industrial use of grains is forecast to expand by China 6.4 6.7 6.8 7.1 4.4% around 2% in 2016/17, to 333m t. The projection is of which: maize 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.4% slightly lower than in the May update owing to fragile Canada 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 0.0% economic conditions in some countries. Grains use to of which: maize 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 0.0% manufacture starch is seen increasing by 3.1m t y/y, to a Argentina 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 21.7% new peak of 116.9m. Much of the gain is in China, where of which: maize 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.4 21.7% government measures to stimulate demand for local Others 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.6 -17.6% maize are expected to boost use for starch and ethanol. TOTAL GRAINS 154.5 156.6 158.7 161.1 1.5% While use for brewing continues to increase in many countries, especially in Far East Asia, poor economic of which: maize 145.7 148.4 147.8 150.9 2.0% conditions are restricting demand in Latin America. wheat 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.8 0.0% Consequently, only a small y/y rise is projected for sorghum 1.6 0.7 3.4 2.9 -15.6% brewing use, to 37.1m t. Mostly because of a recent rye 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 -6.7% slower pace of increase in the US than anticipated, the barley 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% forecast for global fuel ethanol use in 2016/17 is trimmed * excluding non-fuel uses from previously, to 161.1m t, a 1.5% y/y gain. Use of grains for biofuels* by country

Industrial use of grains, y/y change (m t) m t 180 Other m t 30 160 Canada Ethanol Starch Brewing China 140 25 EU a) 120 USA 20 100 15 80 10 60 5 40 0 20

-5 0 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 -10 (est.) (f'cast) 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 * excluding non-fuel uses a) EU-27 to 2012/13, EU-28 from 2013/14 (est.) (f'cast) Wheat flour: World trade (Jul/Jun) QUARTERLY UPDATE '000 tons (grain equivalent)

IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 16.05.16 25.08.16

WORLD TRADE IN EUROPE 324 343 340 320 320 EU-28 54 68 77 70 70 WHEAT FLOUR Others 270 275 263 250 250

CIS 2,128 1,702 1,760 1,800 1,800

Tajikistan 324 248 240 250 250 At 15.4m t, the forecast for world wheat flour trade in Uzbekistan 1,400 1,137 1,200 1,250 1,250 2016/17 is slightly higher than in the May update and Others 403 317 320 300 300 about 1% above the estimate for the year before. N & C AMERICA 735 942 990 860 860 Canada 120 142 150 140 140 World wheat flour imports (Jul/Jun)* Mexico 114 204 270 200 200 USA 255 325 355 300 300 Others 245 270 215 220 220 m t 18 SOUTH AMERICA 472 744 790 770 770 Bolivia 154 187 280 220 220 16 Other / unsp. Brazil 294 486 460 500 500 14 Europe Others 24 71 50 50 50 S America NEAR EAST ASIA 2,532 2,360 3,190 3,370 3,290 < 12 N&C America Iraq 1,477 1,488 2,000 2,300 2,100 < 10 CIS Syria 525 322 500 450 500 < Yemen 61 66 150 150 150 Africa 8 Others 468 485 540 470 540 < NE Asia 6 FAR EAST ASIA 3,605 3,940 4,220 3,900 4,370 < Afghanistan 1,449 1,816 2,140 1,800 2,200 < 4 FE Asia Hong Kong 343 338 330 330 330 Indonesia 325 289 300 300 300 2 Korea (N) 165 121 100 120 120 0 Korea (S) 57 60 93 60 60 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Philippines 340 298 250 300 300 (est.) (f'cast) Thailand 228 254 200 250 250 *Grain equivalent Others 699 765 807 740 810 < AFRICA 2,272 2,380 2,750 2,570 2,900 < Trade is expected to be underpinned by continued solid North Africa 117 45 140 140 140 demand in Asia, which, at an aggregate 7.7m t (7.4m), Libya 107 24 100 100 100 accounts for about half the global total. Based on the Others 10 21 40 40 40 pace of recent purchases, figures are revised upward for sub-Saharan Africa 2,155 2,335 2,610 2,430 2,760 < a number of countries. While the forecast for Iraq is Angola 653 637 590 640 640 Chad 86 57 73 65 65 trimmed by 0.2m t from before, to 2.1m (2.0m), it Gambia 1 4 3 3 3 remains at a historically high level owing to disruptions to Guinea 257 173 80 150 150 Somalia 208 250 170 210 210 the local milling industry caused by the continued conflict Sudan 74 366 850 550 850 < in some areas. Others 876 849 844 812 842 < OCEANIA 79 83 90 90 90 Iraq: Wheat grain vs flour imports (Jul/Jun) OTHERS / UNSPECIFIED 1,144 1,702 1,070 1,370 1,000 <

m t 4.5 WORLD TOTAL 13,291 14,197 15,200 15,050 15,400 <

4.0 EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) 3.5 (est.) 16.05.16 25.08.16

3.0 Argentina 324 652 716 750 760 < Australia 43 47 83 200 100 < 2.5 Canada 198 343 307 300 350 < Grain EU-28 (excl. TPA) 920 900 950 1,000 950 < 2.0 Kazakhstan 2,762 2,385 3,000 2,850 3,000 < Flour* Russia 171 228 430 300 400 < 1.5 Ukraine 321 364 482 400 450 < USA 308 388 440 400 435 < 1.0 China 316 218 150 200 200 0.5 India 509 487 400 400 400 Iran 38 830 236 120 220 < 0.0 Japan 238 227 220 230 220 < 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Morocco 192 192 100 50 50 (est.) (f'cast) Pakistan 670 700 500 600 600 * Grain equivalent Sri Lanka 115 114 115 100 100 Turkey 3,653 3,531 4,940 4,650 4,950 < UAE 502 650 350 650 350 < Others 2,011 1,940 1,780 1,850 1,865 <

WORLD TOTAL 13,291 14,197 15,200 15,050 15,400 <

GMR TABLES

Table no. Table no. GRAINS: PRODUCTION GRAINS: SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Total grains (wheat and coarse grains)………………………1 Total grains (wheat and coarse grains)……………………18A… All wheat……………………………………………….……… 2 All wheat……………………………………………….………18B Maize……………………………………………….…………… 3 Maize……………………………………………….……………18C Barley……………………………………………….……………4 Barley & sorghum………………………………………………18D Sorghum……………………………………………….……… 5 Oats & rye……………………………………………….………18E Oats……………………………………………….…………… 6 Rye……………………………………………….……………… 7 Durum wheat: Supply and demand/production/trade………19 Totals by grain……………………………………………….… 8

GRAINS: TRADE RICE

Total grains (wheat and coarse grains)…………………………… 9 Production……………………………………………….……………20 All wheat……………………………………………….………………10 Trade……………………………………………….………………… 21 Maize……………………………………………….…………………11 Rice: main exporters' progress reports……………………………21A Barley……………………………………………….…………………12 Supply and demand……………………………………………….…22 Sorghum……………………………………………….………………13 Cumulative shipments by destination - all rice…………………… E Oats……………………………………………….……………………14 Rye……………………………………………….……………………15

GRAINS: SHIPMENTS AND SALES OILSEEDS

Recent reported sales (wheat and coarse grains)……………… 16 Soyabeans: production………………………………………………23 Wheat: main exporters' progress reports…………………………17A Rapeseed/canola: production………………………………………24 Maize: main exporters' progress reports…………………………17B Soyabeans: trade……………………………………………….……25 Barley: main exporters' progress reports…………………………17C Soyabeans: main exporters' progress reports……………………25A Soyameal: trade……………………………………………….…… 26 Monthly and quarterly grain shipments…………………………… A Soyameal: main exporters' progress reports………………………26A Cumulative shipments by destination Rapeseed/canola: trade…………………………………………… 27 Wheat……………………………………………….………… B1 Rapeseed/canola: main exporters' progress reports……………27A Durum wheat……………………………………………….… B2 Supply and demand: soyabeans……………………………………28A Maize……………………………………………….……………B3 Supply and demand: rapeseed/canola……………………………28B Barley……………………………………………….……………B4 Malt……………………………………………….………………B5 Cumulative shipments by destination Sorghum……………………………………………….………B6 Soyabeans……………………………………………….…… F1 Oats……………………………………………….……………B7 Soyameal……………………………………………….………F2 Rapeseed/canola………………………………………………F3 EU: licences and import duties Export/import licences…………………………………………C1 PRICES Import duties……………………………………………….……C2 TRQ import licences……………………………………………C3 Weekly export quotations and GOI…………………………………29 Futures prices……………………………………………….……… 30 CHINA Historical volatility……………………………………………….……30A Production……………………………………………….………D1 Trade forecasts………………………………………………. D2 OCEAN FREIGHT RATES Trade progress report…………………………………………D3 Official trade data………………………………………………D4 Selected grain routes………………………………………………. 31

N:B: Tables highlighted in blue are available in pdf version only

27

Table 1 Table 2 PRODUCTION: TOTAL GRAINS PRODUCTION: ALL WHEAT Million tons Million tons COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 EUROPE 314.7 341.9 324.3 320.0 312.5 < EUROPE 147.4 160.3 164.2 153.6 149.8 < EU* 301.4 326.7 310.6 305.3 297.9 < EU* 143.2 156.1 159.8 149.0 145.2 < Bulgaria 8.6 9.5 7.9 9.4 9.5 < Bulgaria 5.2 5.3 4.7 6.0 6.0 Czech Rep. 7.7 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.1 < Czech Rep. 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.1 5.2 < Denmark 9.1 9.8 9.3 9.2 8.9 < Denmark 4.1 5.2 4.5 4.6 4.3 < Finland 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 France 38.5 39.0 42.5 34.0 30.5 < France 66.7 72.3 71.2 62.2 56.9 < Germany 25.0 27.8 26.3 25.4 24.4 < Germany 47.8 52.0 48.3 47.5 45.3 < Hungary 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.8 5.1 < Greece 3.2 2.8 4.1 3.2 3.2 Greece 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 Hungary 13.6 16.5 13.9 13.9 14.7 < Italy 7.2 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.0 Italy 15.6 17.0 15.8 16.9 16.4 < Poland 9.6 11.6 10.9 10.2 10.3 < Poland 28.3 31.7 28.2 29.7 30.1 < Romania 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.0 8.3 < Romania 19.6 21.3 18.6 20.3 20.1 < Slovakia 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 < Spain 24.3 19.7 18.5 22.0 22.0 Spain 7.7 6.5 6.3 7.6 7.6 Sweden 5.0 5.8 6.1 5.4 5.5 < Sweden 1.9 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.8 United Kingdom 20.1 24.4 24.1 22.6 22.5 < United Kingdom 11.9 16.6 16.0 14.9 14.9 Other EU 27.7 31.0 32.5 30.8 30.8 Other EU 12.0 13.1 15.9 14.1 14.3 < Serbia 9.1 10.7 9.2 10.3 10.3 Serbia 2.7 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 Others 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 Others 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 CIS 194.4 207.7 202.7 212.4 220.0 < CIS 103.9 112.6 117.3 121.3 126.7 < Belarus 7.5 9.3 8.3 8.6 8.6 Kazakhstan 13.9 13.0 13.7 13.5 14.5 < Kazakhstan 17.5 16.4 17.5 17.0 18.5 < Russia 52.1 59.1 61.0 67.5 70.0 < Russia 88.7 100.5 99.4 107.8 110.8 < Ukraine 22.3 24.7 27.3 25.0 26.5 < Ukraine 62.5 64.4 60.8 61.8 64.4 < Other CIS 15.6 15.8 15.2 15.3 15.7 < Uzbekistan 7.2 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.4 < Other CIS 11.0 9.5 9.4 10.1 10.2 < N & C AMERICA 99.0 88.2 87.2 95.0 97.2 < Canada 37.5 29.4 27.6 29.5 30.0 < N & C AMERICA 532.8 525.3 516.3 538.0 555.2 < Mexico 3.4 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.0 Canada 66.3 51.4 53.2 54.1 54.2 < USA 58.1 55.1 55.8 61.5 63.2 < Mexico 35.5 36.2 35.1 35.8 36.1 < Others - T T T T USA 425.7 432.8 423.1 443.2 460.0 < Others 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 SOUTH AMERICA 19.1 23.9 21.1 24.6 24.1 < Argentina 9.2 13.9 11.3 14.6 14.2 < SOUTH AMERICA 157.3 165.5 151.9 171.2 170.8 < Brazil 5.5 6.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 Argentina 51.0 54.3 57.8 60.6 60.0 < Chile 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.4 Brazil 88.2 93.3 75.8 92.5 92.6 < Uruguay 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 Others 18.1 17.8 18.2 18.1 18.2 < Others 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 < NEAR EAST ASIA 68.4 60.0 67.7 64.7 64.7 NEAR EAST ASIA 45.0 38.8 43.9 41.8 41.8 Iran 19.9 18.8 19.5 20.4 20.4 Iran 14.5 13.0 13.8 14.5 14.5 Iraq 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.8 Iraq 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 Syria 5.0 2.5 3.7 1.4 1.4 Saudi Arabia 0.7 0.7 0.8 - - Turkey 36.6 31.9 37.7 34.8 34.8 Syria 4.0 2.1 3.0 2.4 2.4 Others 2.4 2.2 2.2 3.4 3.4 Turkey 22.1 19.0 22.6 21.0 21.0 FAR EAST ASIA 562.0 566.6 565.0 563.8 568.6 < Others 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Pacific Asia 383.5 384.9 398.0 389.5 389.8 < FAR EAST ASIA 249.5 258.1 252.4 251.3 254.9 China 348.5 350.2 363.5 353.7 353.9 < < Pacific Asia 123.4 127.7 131.9 127.5 127.6 Indonesia 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.6 < China 121.9 126.2 130.2 126.0 126.0 Philippines 7.4 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.6 Others 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 Thailand 5.1 4.9 4.7 5.0 5.0 < South Asia 126.1 130.3 120.5 123.8 127.3 Others 13.5 13.2 13.2 13.6 13.6 < Afghanistan 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.1 South Asia 178.4 181.7 167.0 174.3 178.8 < Afghanistan 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.8 India 93.5 95.9 86.5 90.0 93.5 < Pakistan 24.2 26.0 25.5 25.5 25.5 India 136.7 138.9 124.5 131.6 136.1 < Pakistan 29.9 31.3 31.1 31.3 31.3 Others 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 Others 6.0 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 AFRICA 27.4 24.5 25.8 21.6 21.6 AFRICA 139.6 142.6 134.4 135.3 135.3 North Africa 20.1 17.2 20.4 15.1 15.1 North Africa 31.8 28.5 33.0 24.8 24.8 Algeria 3.3 1.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 Algeria 4.9 3.3 4.1 3.6 3.6 Egypt 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 Egypt 15.3 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 Libya 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Morocco 10.0 7.0 11.7 3.6 3.6 Morocco 7.0 5.1 8.1 2.7 2.7 sub-Saharan Africa 107.8 114.1 101.4 110.6 110.6 Tunisia 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 Ethiopia 17.1 17.5 13.1 16.4 16.4 sub-Saharan Africa 7.3 7.3 5.4 6.5 6.5 Nigeria 18.1 19.1 18.1 18.7 18.7 Ethiopia 3.9 4.2 2.8 3.6 3.6 South Africa 17.6 12.8 9.6 15.3 15.3 South Africa 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.8 Tanzania 6.6 8.0 7.3 6.8 6.8 Others 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 Others 48.4 56.6 53.4 53.4 53.4 OCEANIA 25.8 24.0 24.5 26.3 27.3 < OCEANIA 38.7 37.5 37.9 40.3 41.6 < Australia 25.3 23.7 24.2 26.0 27.0 < Australia 37.6 36.5 36.8 39.3 40.6 < WORLD TOTAL 717.1 730.4 736.4 735.4 743.2 < WORLD TOTAL 2007.9 2047.0 2000.2 2045.9 2068.9 <

Table 3 Table 4 PRODUCTION: MAIZE (CORN) PRODUCTION: BARLEY Million tons Million tons COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 EUROPE 71.4 85.1 65.5 70.9 69.6 < EUROPE 60.7 61.7 62.1 63.4 61.1 < EU* 64.2 76.2 58.2 62.9 61.6 < EU* 59.5 60.5 60.8 62.0 59.7 < Austria 1.8 2.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 Bulgaria 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 Bulgaria 2.7 3.1 2.4 2.7 2.7 Czech Rep. 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 < Croatia 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.9 Denmark 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.7 France 15.0 18.7 13.5 14.0 13.7 < Finland 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 Germany 4.4 5.1 4.0 4.5 4.2 < France 10.4 11.7 12.4 11.7 10.2 < Greece 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.1 1.1 Germany 10.3 11.6 11.5 11.2 10.6 < Hungary 6.7 9.3 6.5 6.9 7.4 < Hungary 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 Italy 7.1 8.7 7.0 7.5 7.0 < Poland 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.6 3.6 Romania 10.3 11.3 8.3 10.0 9.5 < Romania 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 Slovakia 1.3 1.7 0.9 1.4 1.3 < Spain 10.1 7.0 6.4 9.1 9.1 Spain 4.7 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.7 Sweden 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 Other EU 6.9 7.8 6.0 7.1 7.1 United Kingdom 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.8 < Serbia 5.9 7.7 6.0 6.7 6.7 Other EU 6.0 7.2 7.5 6.8 6.8 Others T T T T T Others 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 CIS 46.9 43.7 40.3 44.8 44.8 Russia 11.6 11.3 13.2 14.0 14.0 CIS 29.2 35.5 32.0 32.8 34.9 < Ukraine 30.9 28.5 23.3 26.5 26.5 Belarus 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 Other CIS 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.3 Kazakhstan 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.9 < N & C AMERICA 393.2 402.5 388.4 406.7 420.1 < Russia 15.4 20.0 17.1 18.0 18.5 < Canada 14.2 11.5 13.6 12.8 12.3 < Ukraine 7.6 9.4 8.7 8.8 9.8 < Mexico 22.9 25.5 25.0 24.2 24.5 < Other CIS 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 USA 351.3 361.1 345.5 365.2 378.8 < Others 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 N & C AMERICA 15.5 11.7 13.5 12.8 13.1 < Canada 10.2 7.1 8.2 8.1 8.4 < SOUTH AMERICA 124.7 130.0 118.0 134.7 134.7 USA 4.7 4.0 4.7 4.1 4.1 Argentina 33.1 33.8 37.9 39.2 39.2 Others 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Brazil 80.1 84.7 68.5 83.7 83.7 Colombia 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Paraguay 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 SOUTH AMERICA 5.7 3.8 5.9 4.2 4.2 Venezula 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 Argentina 4.7 2.9 4.9 3.2 3.0 < Others 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 Others 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 < NEAR EAST ASIA 9.0 9.0 9.4 9.3 9.3 NEAR EAST ASIA 12.7 10.9 13.0 12.3 12.3 Turkey 5.9 6.0 6.4 6.2 6.2 Iran 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 Others 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 Iraq 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 FAR EAST ASIA 283.1 279.0 285.6 283.0 284.0 < Syria 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 Pacific Asia 251.2 248.0 256.6 252.5 252.5 Turkey 7.9 6.3 8.0 7.0 7.0 China 218.5 215.6 224.6 219.0 219.0 Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Indonesia 9.1 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.6 Philippines 7.4 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.6 FAR EAST ASIA 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.9 < Thailand 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.9 4.9 Pacific Asia 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 Vietnam 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 China 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 Others 6.0 5.6 5.4 6.0 6.0 Others 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 South Asia 31.9 31.0 29.0 30.6 31.6 < South Asia 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 India 24.3 24.2 21.8 23.0 24.0 < India 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 Others 7.6 6.9 7.2 7.6 7.6 Others 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 AFRICA 69.4 68.3 60.7 66.8 66.8 North Africa 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 AFRICA 7.0 6.3 7.6 4.8 4.8 Egypt 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 North Africa 4.7 4.0 5.3 2.4 2.4 Others 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Algeria 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 sub-Saharan Africa 63.4 62.1 54.4 60.5 60.5 Morocco 2.7 1.6 3.4 0.6 0.6 Côte d'Ivoire 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 sub-Saharan Africa 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 Ethiopia 6.5 6.6 5.3 6.3 6.3 Ethiopia 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Kenya 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.9 Others 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Malawi 3.6 3.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 Nigeria 7.7 7.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 OCEANIA 9.6 9.1 9.0 9.4 9.7 < South Africa 15.0 10.6 7.7 12.9 12.9 Australia 9.2 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.3 < Tanzania 5.4 6.7 6.0 5.5 5.5 New Zealand 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Zambia 2.5 3.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 Zimbabwe 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 WORLD TOTAL 144.8 143.7 147.6 144.5 144.9 < Others 18.4 18.7 18.7 19.0 19.0 OCEANIA 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 Australia 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Others 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 WORLD TOTAL 998.4 1018.3 968.5 1016.7 1029.9 <

Table 5 Table 6 PRODUCTION: SORGHUM PRODUCTION: OATS Million tons Million tons COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16

EUROPE 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 EUROPE 8.9 8.3 7.9 8.2 8.1 < EU* 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 EU* 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.8 7.7 < France 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Finland 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 Italy 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Germany 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 < Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Poland 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 Sweden 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 CIS 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 CIS 6.1 6.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 Russia 4.9 5.3 4.5 4.7 4.7 N & C AMERICA 18.9 17.8 21.2 17.9 19.3 < Mexico 8.5 6.3 5.6 6.8 6.8 Ukraine 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 USA 10.0 11.0 15.2 10.7 12.1 < N & C AMERICA 4.9 4.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 < Others 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Canada 3.9 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.0 < USA 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 SOUTH AMERICA 6.1 6.0 5.2 5.8 5.8 SOUTH AMERICA 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 < Argentina 3.5 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 Argentina 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 Brazil 1.9 2.1 1.2 1.9 1.9 Colombia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 NEAR EAST ASIA 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Venezuela 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 FAR EAST ASIA 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 Others 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 China 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 AFRICA 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 NEAR EAST ASIA 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 OCEANIA 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.7 Saudi Arabia 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Australia 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 Yemen 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 WORLD TOTAL 23.8 23.0 22.6 23.3 23.0 < FAR EAST ASIA 8.6 8.6 7.7 8.8 9.0 < Pacific Asia 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 < China 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 < Table 7 Thailand 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 PRODUCTION: RYE Others T T T T T Million tons South Asia 5.7 5.6 4.6 5.7 5.7 India 5.5 5.5 4.4 5.5 5.5 COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) Pakistan 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 EUROPE 10.5 9.0 7.9 8.0 7.9 < AFRICA 21.3 27.9 25.2 26.9 26.9 EU* 10.4 8.9 7.7 7.9 7.8 < North Africa 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Denmark 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 Egypt 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Germany 4.7 3.9 3.3 3.3 3.1 < sub-Saharan Africa 20.6 27.0 24.3 26.0 26.0 Poland 3.5 2.8 2.0 2.7 2.9 < Burkina Faso 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 Spain 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Cameroon 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 CIS 4.7 4.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 Chad 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Belarus 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Ethiopia 3.8 4.0 2.6 3.7 3.7 Russia 3.4 3.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 Mali 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 N & C AMERICA 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Niger 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Canada 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Nigeria 5.3 6.7 6.2 6.4 6.4 USA 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 South Africa 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 NEAR EAST ASIA 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Sudan 2.2 6.3 5.5 5.6 5.6 FAR EAST ASIA 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Tanzania 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 China 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Uganda 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 WORLD TOTAL 16.9 15.3 12.9 13.3 13.2 < Others 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3

OCEANIA 1.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 Table 8 Australia 1.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 PRODUCTION BY GRAIN Million tons WORLD TOTAL 58.3 64.3 62.9 63.1 64.8 < COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Wheat 717.1 730.4 736.4 735.4 743.2 < Coarse Grains 1290.8 1316.6 1263.8 1310.5 1325.6 < Maize (corn) 998.4 1018.3 968.5 1016.7 1029.9 < Barley 144.8 143.7 147.6 144.5 144.9 < Sorghum 58.3 64.3 62.9 63.1 64.8 < Oats 23.8 23.0 22.6 23.3 23.0 < Rye 16.9 15.3 12.9 13.3 13.2 < Millet, triticale, 48.6 52.1 49.1 49.7 49.7 mixed grains WORLD TOTAL 2007.9 2047.0 2000.2 2045.9 2068.9 < See Table notes at the end of this report.

Table 9 TRADE: TOTAL GRAINS (July/June) Million tons Million tons IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16

EUROPE 23.2 18.4 24.0 19.1 21.0 < AFRICA 65.3 67.1 75.8 73.1 74.2 < Albania 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 North Africa 42.6 44.1 47.8 46.8 47.8 < EU * 20.3 15.7 21.3 16.5 18.4 < Algeria 11.7 12.6 13.2 12.3 12.7 < Norway 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 Egypt 17.9 18.9 20.7 20.1 20.7 < Switzerland 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 Libya 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 Others 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 Morocco 6.4 6.6 7.2 8.1 8.1 CIS 8.0 8.1 7.4 7.5 7.5 Tunisia 3.3 3.0 3.6 3.4 3.5 < Azerbaijan 1.6 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.7 Sub-Sahara 22.7 23.0 28.0 26.2 26.4 < Belarus 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Ethiopia 0.6 1.0 2.4 1.6 1.8 < Georgia 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 Kenya 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 Russia 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 Nigeria 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.3 < Ukraine0.1TTTT South Africa 2.1 2.1 5.0 3.8 3.9 < Uzbekistan 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 Sudan 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.7 2.4 < Others 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 Zimbabwe 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.3 < Others 9.6 9.9 10.8 10.1 10.4 < N & C AMERICA 32.8 33.4 37.1 37.0 37.4 < OCEANIA 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Canada 0.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 Costa Rica 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 New Zealand 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 < Cuba 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 < Others 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 < Dominican Rep. 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 UNSPECIFIED 3.7 4.3 3.0 4.5 4.1 < Guatemala 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 < SUB-TOTAL 313.0 326.1 345.8 327.1 333.1 < Mexico 15.1 15.6 19.3 18.9 19.3 < USA 7.7 6.3 5.8 6.4 6.1 < Less PST** 2.8 3.8 2.8 3.1 3.0 < Others 3.7 3.8 4.4 4.1 4.3 <

SOUTH AMERICA 27.9 25.9 27.0 26.7 27.1 < WORLD TOTAL 310.3 322.2 343.0 324.0 330.1 < Bolivia 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Brazil 8.3 6.8 7.6 7.1 7.4 < Chile 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 Million tons Colombia 6.5 6.0 6.9 6.5 6.5 EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) Ecuador 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Peru 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 Venezuela 4.5 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.7 Argentina 17.4 26.8 30.7 35.0 34.5 < Others 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 Australia 25.6 23.5 22.0 23.4 24.0 < Canada 28.0 29.1 26.4 24.9 25.6 < NEAR EAST ASIA 54.0 56.7 54.5 52.3 52.5 < EU * 40.0 48.1 46.9 39.6 34.9 < Iran 12.2 13.7 10.5 9.2 9.2 Kazakhstan 8.8 6.4 8.1 7.4 8.3 < Iraq 3.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 < Russia 25.4 30.6 34.9 36.4 39.8 < Israel 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Ukraine 32.2 34.1 39.4 34.8 37.2 < Jordan 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.6 USA 78.6 79.1 76.5 79.9 85.9 < Lebanon 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 Brazil 23.6 22.3 37.0 21.5 18.5 < Saudi Arabia 15.1 15.0 17.4 16.1 16.4 < China 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 Turkey 5.7 8.8 5.9 6.7 6.7 India 10.1 3.4 1.4 1.1 1.2 < UAE 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.5 2.5 South Africa 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 < Yemen 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 Turkey 3.6 3.4 4.9 5.0 5.1 < Others 4.3 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 < Others 14.4 13.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 <

FAR EAST ASIA 97.0 110.9 115.8 105.6 108.1 < WORLD TOTAL 310.3 322.2 343.0 324.0 330.1 < Pacific Asia 90.0 102.3 105.7 95.6 97.5 < All Wheat 156.3 153.3 164.8 158.7 162.1 < China 18.3 25.9 23.6 15.4 16.1 < Maize (corn) 121.8 125.1 134.8 129.6 131.4 < Indonesia 10.9 11.2 12.5 12.3 11.0 < Barley 22.9 29.1 29.3 25.1 25.3 < Japan 23.4 21.9 22.1 22.5 22.7 < Sorghum 6.5 11.8 11.2 7.7 8.3 < Korea (S) 13.4 14.2 14.0 14.9 15.0 < Oats 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 Malaysia 4.9 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.2 < Rye 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Philippines 4.2 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.7 < Others 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 Singapore 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Taipei, Chinese 5.5 5.4 6.0 5.7 5.8 < ** Processed Secondary Trade Thailand 2.1 3.9 5.2 4.2 5.1 < Vietnam 5.8 8.0 9.6 8.8 9.1 < Others 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 South Asia 7.0 8.6 10.2 10.0 10.6 < Bangladesh 3.8 4.0 5.4 4.7 5.2 < India T 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.3 Pakistan 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 Sri Lanka 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 Others 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 <

Table 10 TRADE: ALL WHEAT (July/June) Million tons Million tons IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16

EUROPE 6.1 8.0 8.9 7.3 8.2 < South Asia 6.4 7.7 8.6 8.8 9.5 < Albania 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Bangladesh 3.4 3.6 4.6 4.1 4.6 < EU * 4.1 6.2 7.0 5.5 6.4 < India T 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 Norway 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 Pakistan 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 Switzerland 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Sri Lanka 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Others 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Others 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.5 < CIS 7.3 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.9 AFRICA 44.9 45.2 50.3 48.1 48.5 < Azerbaijan 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.5 North Africa 25.2 25.3 28.1 27.4 27.7 < Georgia 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 Algeria 7.4 7.3 8.2 7.5 7.6 < Russia 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 Egypt 10.1 11.1 12.2 11.8 12.0 < Tadjikistan 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 Libya 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Uzbekistan 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 Morocco 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.8 Others 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 Tunisia 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 N & C AMERICA 13.0 12.1 11.3 12.0 11.4 < Sub-Sahara 19.6 19.8 22.1 20.7 20.8 < Cuba 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Côte d'Ivoire 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Mexico 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.4 Ethiopia 0.6 0.9 2.3 1.5 1.7 < USA 4.2 3.4 2.5 3.4 2.8 < Kenya 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 Others 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Nigeria 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 < SOUTH AMERICA 14.4 12.7 13.2 13.2 13.2 South Africa 1.9 1.8 2.4 1.9 2.0 < Sudan 2.6 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.2 < Bolivia 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Others 8.0 8.1 8.9 8.5 8.7 < Brazil 7.0 5.7 6.1 5.9 5.9 Chile 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 OCEANIA 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Colombia 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 New Zealand 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 < Ecuador 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 Others 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 < Peru 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 UNSPECIFIED 2.5 2.1 1.2 2.3 2.1 < Venezuela 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 Others 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 SUB-TOTAL 159.3 157.1 167.5 161.8 165.1 < NEAR EAST ASIA 28.2 26.8 24.6 24.4 24.2 < Less PST** 2.8 3.8 2.8 3.1 3.0 < Iran 6.5 5.0 3.3 2.5 2.5 Iraq 3.1 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.3 < WORLD TOTAL 156.5 153.3 164.8 158.7 162.1 < Israel 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 Jordan 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 Kuwait 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Lebanon 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 Million tons Saudi Arabia 3.5 3.6 2.9 3.6 3.6 EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) Syria 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Turkey 4.2 5.8 4.4 4.9 4.9 Argentina 1.5 4.1 8.7 8.5 8.4 < UAE 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 Australia 18.4 16.6 15.8 17.5 18.0 < Yemen 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 Canada 22.9 24.9 21.9 20.9 21.3 < Others 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 EU * 31.0 34.4 33.9 29.0 25.5 < FAR EAST ASIA 41.8 41.8 49.9 46.5 49.5 < Kazakhstan 8.4 5.9 7.3 7.0 7.5 < Pacific Asia 35.4 34.0 41.4 37.7 40.1 < Russia 18.5 22.2 25.7 27.6 30.7 < Ukraine 9.5 11.2 17.4 12.1 14.0 < China 6.7 2.1 3.5 3.2 3.5 < USA 31.3 22.6 21.6 24.0 24.9 < Indonesia 7.5 7.3 10.2 9.0 8.8 < Brazil T 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 Japan 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.8 < China 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 Korea (N) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 India 5.3 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 < Korea (S) 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.9 < Pakistan 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 < Malaysia 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 Mexico 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 Philippines 3.5 5.0 4.9 4.7 5.1 < Turkey 3.4 3.3 4.8 4.9 5.0 < Singapore 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Others 4.0 2.7 3.8 3.2 3.3 < Taipei, Chinese 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 < Thailand 1.7 3.5 4.9 3.8 4.7 < WORLD TOTAL 156.5 153.3 164.8 158.7 162.1 < Vietnam 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.6 2.9 < Others 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 < ** Processed Secondary Trade

Table 11 Table 12 TRADE: MAIZE (CORN) TRADE: BARLEY** (July/June) (July/June) Million tons Million tons IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 EUROPE 16.3 9.6 14.2 11.1 12.1 < EUROPE 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 EU * 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 EU * 15.7 8.9 13.6 10.5 11.5 < Others 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Others 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 CIS 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 CIS 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 Russia 0.1 T T 0.1 0.1 N & C AMERICA 16.6 18.3 22.4 21.7 22.4 < Others 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Canada 0.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.2 N & C AMERICA 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Cuba 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 < USA 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Dominican Rep. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 Others 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 Guatemala 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 SOUTH AMERICA 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 Mexico 9.8 10.8 13.8 13.6 13.9 < USA 1.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.9 < Brazil 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Others 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.3 < Colombia 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Others 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 SOUTH AMERICA 12.1 11.8 12.5 12.3 12.6 < NEAR EAST ASIA 12.6 13.4 14.8 12.9 12.9 Brazil 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 < Iran 0.8 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.2 Colombia 4.3 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 Israel 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Peru 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 Jordan 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Uruguay 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Kuwait 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 Venezuela 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Saudi Arabia 9.0 8.2 11.0 9.3 9.3 Others 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 Syria 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 UAE 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 NEAR EAST ASIA 13.0 16.2 14.9 14.7 15.1 < Others 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 Iran 4.8 6.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 FAR EAST ASIA 5.8 10.3 8.6 6.5 6.5 Israel 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 Saudi Arabia 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.5 < Pacific Asia 5.8 10.3 8.6 6.5 6.4 < Syria 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 China 4.3 8.9 7.4 5.0 4.9 < Turkey 1.3 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 Japan 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.3 Others 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 Others 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 FAR EAST ASIA 44.7 47.8 47.3 46.2 45.3 < South Asia T T 0.1 T T AFRICA 2.3 2.8 3.5 3.2 3.5 < Pacific Asia 44.1 47.1 46.1 45.2 44.3 < North Africa 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.1 3.4 < China 3.9 5.1 3.9 2.0 2.0 Indonesia 3.3 3.8 2.2 3.2 2.2 < Algeria 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 < Japan 15.2 14.2 14.7 14.8 14.8 Libya 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 Korea (S) 9.2 10.1 9.5 10.0 10.0 Morocco 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 Tunisia 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Malaysia 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.6 < Others T 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taipei, Chinese 4.1 3.9 4.5 4.3 4.3 Others 5.0 6.7 7.7 7.4 7.4 Sub-Sahara 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 South Asia 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 UNSPECIFIED T T T T T AFRICA 17.5 18.5 21.3 21.1 21.5 < WORLD TOTAL 22.9 29.1 29.3 25.1 25.3 < North Africa 15.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.7 < Algeria 3.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2 Egypt 7.7 7.7 8.4 8.3 8.6 < Morocco 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.1 2.1 Million tons Tunisia 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 < EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) Others 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Sub-Sahara 2.4 2.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 Argentina 2.8 1.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 < Kenya 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 Feed 2.1 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.4 < Others 2.0 2.0 4.5 4.2 4.2 Malting 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 < Australia 6.4 5.5 4.9 4.8 4.9 < UNSPECIFIED 1.2 2.4 1.9 2.3 2.1 < Feed 3.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 < Malting 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 < WORLD TOTAL 121.8 125.1 134.8 129.6 131.4 < Canada 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.4 1.4 Feed 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 Malting 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 EU * 5.7 9.5 10.8 8.1 7.1 < Million tons Feed 4.7 8.9 9.8 7.2 6.4 < EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) Malting 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 < (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Kazakhstan 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.8 < Russia 2.7 5.3 4.2 4.0 4.3 < Argentina 12.0 19.8 18.5 23.2 23.2 Feed 2.6 5.2 4.1 3.9 4.2 < Brazil 23.5 20.6 35.9 20.5 17.5 < Malting 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Ukraine 19.9 18.2 17.3 18.7 18.7 Ukraine 2.5 4.4 4.4 3.8 4.3 < USA 42.8 47.2 45.6 50.2 54.5 < USA 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 Feed 0.2 0.2 T0.10.1 Canada 2.0 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.1 < Malting 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 < EU* 2.8 3.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 < India 0.5 0.2 T 0.1 0.1 India 4.1 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 < Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Russia 4.1 2.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 South Africa 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 < WORLD TOTAL 22.9 29.1 29.3 25.1 25.3 < Paraguay 2.9 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 Others 5.8 6.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 Feed 17.5 24.9 25.1 20.8 21.2 < Malting 5.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 < WORLD TOTAL 121.8 125.1 134.8 129.6 131.4 < ** Excluding malt and other products

Table 13 Table 15 TRADE: SORGHUM TRADE: RYE (July/June) (July/June) '000 tons '000 tons 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 IMPORTS IMPORTS EU * 208 125 135 130 135 < EU * 78 101 50 80 80 Mexico 501 11 500 700 800 < Norway 16T555 Colombia 194 T 40 20 30 < Switzerland65388 Chile 206 156 108 120 140 < Azerbaijan - 8 T 5 5 China 3,394 9,598 8,600 5,000 5,500 < USA 160 194 180 134 185 < Israel 85 11 22 20 30 < Israel 30 24 25 28 28 Japan 1,034 876 673 825 750 < Japan 3623203030 Sudan 194 144 151 160 160 Korea (S) - T T T T New Zealand 29 T T 5 5 Bangladesh - - 9 5 5 Others 623 867 949 714 757 < Egypt --211 Others 5 13 9 15 T WORLD TOTAL 6,467 11,789 11,177 7,694 8,307 < WORLD TOTAL 331 367 303 310 345 < EXPORTS EXPORTS Argentina 1,114 1,223 844 1,000 875 < Australia 701 1,197 1,062 900 900 Canada 55 43 50 75 75 USA 4,093 8,951 8,955 5,500 6,250 < EU * 168 182 160 133 150 < Russia 55 115 67 90 90 Chna 11 9 21 20 20 India 82 111 65 60 50 < Ukraine 5122241025< Ukraine 245 146 118 110 115 < Others 26325< Others 221 152 113 104 97 <

See Table Notes at the end of this report Table 14 TRADE: OATS (July/June) '000 tons 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 IMPORTS Norway 333555 Switzerland 5449505050 Mexico 73 33 120 80 80 USA 1,764 1,802 1,600 1,750 1,750 Japan 4945505050 Others 157 348 487 443 443

WORLD TOTAL 2,131 2,280 2,312 2,378 2,378

EXPORTS Australia 108 176 230 240 240 Canada 1,614 1,722 1,703 1,740 1,740 EU * 307 218 210 250 250 Chile 5683666666 USA 2020241515 Others 25 61 79 67 67

Table 16 REPORTED SALES * (28 July – 24 August 2016)

Date/ Exporter Quantity Notes Price - US$/t Shipping Importer '000 tons (FOB unless stated) Period

WHEAT

EGYPT 28.07.16 Russia 60.0 Milling $168.85 Unknown 28.07.16 EU (Romania) 60.0 Milling $169.90 Unknown 02.08.16 Russia 60.0 $168.90, freight at $8.19/t Sep-16

ISRAEL 09.08.16 Optional origins (likely Black Sea) 55.0 Feed $172.50 - $174.50 C&F Oct-16/Jan-17

JAPAN 03.08.16 Unknown 55.0 Feed see Markets & Trade Plus** Jan-17 arrival 04.08.16 Canada/US/Australia 123.1 Milling see Markets & Trade Plus** Sep-16/Dec-16 10.08.16 Unknown 0.1 Feed see Markets & Trade Plus** Jan-17 arrival 11.08.16 Canada/US 124.6 Milling see Markets & Trade Plus** Sep-16/Oct-16 18.08.16 US/Canada/Australia 87.4 Milling see Markets & Trade Plus** Sep-16/Dec-16

PHILIPPINES 16.08.16 Optional origins (likely Black Sea) 55.0 Feed $188.90 C&F Oct-16/Nov-16 16.08.16 Optional origins (likely Black Sea) 55.0 Feed $191.00 C&F Nov-16/Dec-16

SAUDI ARABIA 15.08.16 Optional origins 640.0 Milling Unknown Oct-16/Nov-16

SYRIA 09.08.16 Russia 150.0 Milling $180.59 C&F prompt

TAIPEI, CHINESE 12.08.16 US 49.1 Milling $243.78 - $249.36 Sep-16/Oct-16 12.08.16 US 23.7 Milling $236.39 - $243.66 Sep-16/Oct-16 12.08.16 US 12.6 Milling $207.16 Sep-16/Oct-16

DURUM

TUNISIA 19.08.16 Optional origins 50.0 $254.80 - $257.19 C&F Dec-16/Jan-17

MAIZE

ISRAEL 09.08.16 Optional origins (likely Black Sea) 110.0 $176.75 - $178.50 C&F Oct-16/Jan-17

MEXICO 08.08.16 US 162.6 a) Unknown MY2016/17 10.08.16 US 143.7 a) Unknown MY2016/17

SOUTH KOREA 03.08.16 Optional origins 55.0 Yellow $198.90 C&F Nov-16 arrival

TAIPEI, CHINESE 10.08.16 US 20.0 $206.50 C&F Jan-17

UNKNOWN 03.08.16 US 290.0 a) Unknown MY2016/17 18.08.16 US 101.6 a) Unknown MY2016/17 24.08.16 US 101.6 a) Unknown MY2016/17

BARLEY

ISRAEL 09.08.16 Optional origins (likely Black Sea) 45.0 $166.00 - $169.50 C&F Oct-16/Jan-17

JAPAN 03.08.16 Unknown 4.5 Feed see Markets & Trade Plus** Jan-17 arrival 10.08.16 Unknown 2.8 Feed see Markets & Trade Plus** Jan-17 arrival

JORDAN 17.08.16 Optional origins 50.0 Feed $189.00 C&F Jan-17

* Excludes weekly sales reported in USDA Export Sales report except as indicated ** As originally reported. n.a. Not available a) USDA under daily reporting system b) Food aid tender

Table 17A Table 17B MAIN WHEAT EXPORTERS: MAIN MAIZE (CORN) EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT PROGRESS REPORT (marketing years) (marketing years)

'000 tons '000 tons Current Year % change Current Year % change Year Ago year on year Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA ARGENTINA 1) 1) Mar/Feb 1 Mar - 17 Aug shipments 10,561 10,790 - 2 Dec/Nov 1 Dec - 17 Aug shipments 7,143 3,351 + 113 16/17 Net Sales for week ending 17 Aug 480 15/16 Net sales for week ending 17 Aug 51 Outstanding commitments 4,480 3,896 + 15 Outstanding commitments - 3,959 - TOTAL 15,040 14,686 + 2 TOTAL 7,143 7,310 - 2 BRAZIL AUSTRALIA Mar/Feb Mar - Jul shipments 3,483 2,291 + 52 Oct/Sep Oct - Jun shipments 11,991 12,764 - 6 16/17 15/16 CHINA CANADA Oct/Sep Oct - Jun shipments 4 11 - 67 Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 14 Aug shipments 15/16 16/17 Wheat 421 840 - 50 Durum 82 50 + 65 SOUTH AFRICA TOTAL 503 890 - 44 May/Apr May - Jun shipments 137 104 + 32 16/17 EU Jul/Jun Licences issued 1 Jul - 16 Aug USA 16/17 Common wheat 3,567 2,870 + 24 Sep/Aug 1 Sep - 11 Aug shipments 43,054 43,307 - 1 2) Flour (grain equivalent) 181 141 + 29 15/16 Net sales for week ending 11 Aug 167 Durum wheat 181 107 + 69 Outstanding commitments 6,744 4,132 + 63 Semolina (grain equivalent) - -- TOTAL 49,798 47,439 + 5 TOTAL 3,929 3) 3,118 3) + 26 USA Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Jun/May 1 Jun - 11 Aug shipments 5,070 3,952 2) + 28 Brazil: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade 16/17 Net sales for week ending 11 Aug 490 4) China: official customs data Outstanding commitments 6,117 5,308 + 15 South Africa: South Africa Grain Information Service TOTAL 11,186 9,260 + 21 USA: USDA Of which: T = Less than 500 t. HRW 4,544 2,544 + 79 1) Excludes donations. SRW 1,052 1,713 - 39 2) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details HRS 3,508 2,938 + 19 WHITE 1,908 1,623 + 18 DURUM 174 443 - 61 KAZAKHSTAN Jul/Jun Jul - May shipments 6,610 5,363 + 23 15/16 RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 25,380 22,216 + 14 15/16 UKRAINE Table 17C Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 17,389 11,196 + 55 MAIN BARLEY EXPORTERS: 15/16 PROGRESS REPORT Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry (marketing years) Australia: ABS '000 tons Canada: CGC EU: Commission Current Year % change USA: USDA Year Ago year on year Kazakhstan: unofficial AUSTRALIA Russia: unofficial Nov/Oct Nov - Jun shipments 3,892 4,232 - 8 Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult 15/16 T = Less than 500 t. CANADA 1) Excludes flour. Source: Direccion de Mercados Agroalimentarios - Ag. Ministry Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 14 Aug shipments 1 2 - 78 2) Excludes donations. 16/17 3) Cumulative of 7 weeks 4) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details EU Jul/Jun Licences issued 1 Jul - 16 Aug 16/17 Barley 895 2,234 - 60 Malt (grain equivalent) - -- TOTAL 895 3) 2,234 3) - 60 USA Jun/May 1 Jun - 11 Aug shipments 5 3 1) + 42 16/17 Net sales for week ending 11 Aug T 2) Outstanding commitments 7 21 - 65 TOTAL 12 24 - 50 RUSSIA Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 4,245 5,291 - 20 15/16 UKRAINE Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 4,408 4,443 - 1 15/16

Sources: Australia: ABS Canada: CGC EU: Commission USA: USDA Russia: unofficial Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult 1) Excludes donations. 2) See GMRPlus Table 16 B for details 3) Cumulative of 7 weeks

Table 18A SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks

TOTAL GRAINS Argentina ** 2014/15 7.6 54.3 0.0 62.0 5.0 2.8 14.7 24.2 27.6 10.2 2015/16 est. 10.2 57.8 0.0 68.1 5.0 2.9 16.0 25.6 35.9 6.7 2016/17 f'cast 6.7 60.0 0.0 66.7 5.1 3.0 15.5 25.3 36.2 5.2 (7.0) (60.6) (67.6) (5.0) (2.9) (25.1) (36.9) (5.7) Australia ** 2014/15 5.6 36.5 0.0 42.2 2.2 0.8 7.3 11.5 24.4 6.3 2015/16 est. 6.3 36.8 0.0 43.1 2.2 0.8 8.4 12.5 23.8 6.9 2016/17 f'cast 6.9 40.6 0.0 47.6 2.4 0.8 8.9 13.2 25.6 8.7 (39.3) (46.3) (8.8) (13.1) (24.7) (8.4) Canada 2014/15 14.9 51.4 2.0 68.3 2.9 6.3 18.2 28.8 29.1 10.4 2015/16 est. 10.4 53.2 1.5 65.1 2.9 6.5 18.3 29.1 27.6 8.3 2016/17 f'cast 8.3 54.2 1.5 64.1 3.1 6.5 18.2 29.4 26.6 8.1 (8.5) (54.1) (1.6) (64.2) (18.4) (29.5) (26.1) (8.6) EU* 2014/15 25.4 326.7 16.2 368.2 63.6 36.5 171.4 285.6 53.5 29.2 2015/16 est. 29.2 310.6 20.9 360.7 63.7 35.5 162.6 275.5 52.1 33.0 2016/17 f'cast 33.0 297.9 18.4 349.4 63.7 36.8 163.6 278.8 40.1 30.5 (33.9) (305.3) (16.5) (355.7) (63.6) (163.2) (278.9) (44.8) (32.1) Kazakhstan 2014/15 2.1 16.4 0.4 18.9 2.4 0.1 4.1 9.5 6.4 3.0 2015/16 est. 3.0 17.5 0.1 20.5 2.4 0.1 4.3 9.3 8.1 3.2 2016/17 f'cast 3.2 18.5 0.1 21.8 2.5 0.2 4.5 10.0 8.3 3.5 (17.0) (20.3) (4.4) (9.9) (7.4) (3.1) Russia 2014/15 7.9 100.5 0.6 109.0 16.3 4.7 35.1 68.6 30.6 9.8 2015/16 est. 9.8 99.4 0.8 109.9 16.0 4.4 35.2 67.9 34.7 7.3 2016/17 f'cast 7.3 110.8 0.7 118.8 15.8 4.4 37.3 69.7 39.8 9.3 (7.6) (107.8) (116.1) (36.4) (68.8) (36.3) (11.1) Ukraine 2014/15 7.3 64.4 0.0 71.7 7.1 0.9 15.5 27.8 34.8 9.1 2015/16 est. 9.1 60.8 0.0 70.0 7.1 0.9 14.5 26.6 38.6 4.8 2016/17 f'cast 4.8 64.4 0.0 69.2 7.0 0.7 14.2 26.1 37.5 5.5 (61.8) (66.6) (13.8) (25.6) (35.1) (5.9) USA 2014/15 50.4 432.8 8.1 491.3 32.3 164.7 143.3 343.3 80.4 67.6 2015/16 est. 67.6 423.1 7.6 498.3 32.8 167.6 141.6 344.7 79.2 74.3 2016/17 f'cast 74.3 460.0 7.3 541.6 32.9 168.7 156.9 361.3 86.9 93.4 (443.2) (7.2) (524.7) (32.8) (169.0) (151.2) (355.6) (81.3) (87.8)

MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2014/15 121.2 1,083.1 27.3 1,231.6 131.8 216.9 409.6 799.2 286.8 145.5 2015/16 est. 145.5 1,059.2 31.0 1,235.7 132.0 218.8 400.8 791.2 300.0 144.5 2016/17 f'cast 144.5 1,106.4 28.0 1,279.0 132.5 221.2 419.0 813.7 301.1 164.2 (146.2) (1089.2) (26.1) (1261.5) (132.3) (221.4) (411.6) (806.5) (292.4) (162.7)

China 2014/15 147.9 350.2 26.6 524.6 96.9 62.4 178.2 358.4 0.9 165.3 2015/16 est. 165.3 363.5 23.3 552.1 97.0 64.2 176.4 358.5 1.0 192.6 2016/17 f'cast 192.6 353.9 16.1 562.6 97.0 66.4 178.0 361.3 1.3 200.1 (192.3) (353.7) (15.4) (561.4) (66.3) (177.5) (360.8) (199.4) India 2014/15 20.3 138.9 0.3 159.5 102.0 4.8 17.4 134.1 5.0 20.3 2015/16 est. 20.3 124.5 0.9 145.7 98.4 5.2 15.9 127.8 1.6 16.4 2016/17 f'cast 16.4 136.1 1.1 153.6 103.4 5.4 17.8 136.2 1.3 16.1 (16.3) (131.6) (1.3) (149.3) (102.4) (15.9) (133.4) (14.6)

WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2014/15 411.9 2,047.0 322.2 2,458.9 665.8 324.2 889.9 2,007.7 322.2 451.2 2015/16 est. 451.2 2,000.2 343.0 2,451.3 664.9 327.0 876.2 1,982.3 343.0 469.0 2016/17 f'cast 469.0 2,068.9 330.1 2,537.9 676.2 333.0 907.7 2,045.8 330.1 492.1 (471.4) (2045.9) (324.0) (2517.3) (673.2) (334.1) (896.5) (2029.1) (324.0) (488.3)

Table 18B SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks d) supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) d) stocks WHEAT Argentina (Dec/Nov) 2014/15 1.7 13.9 0.0 15.6 4.5 0.1 0.4 5.7 5.4 4.5 2015/16 est. 4.5 11.3 0.0 15.8 4.5 0.1 1.0 6.3 8.5 1.0 2016/17 f'cast 1.0 14.2 0.0 15.2 4.5 0.1 0.5 5.8 8.5 0.9 (14.6) (15.6) (8.8) (1.0) Australia (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 4.9 23.7 0.0 28.7 1.9 0.5 4.0 7.1 16.6 5.0 2015/16 est. 5.0 24.2 0.0 29.3 1.9 0.5 3.7 6.8 17.0 5.5 2016/17 f'cast 5.5 27.0 0.0 32.5 2.1 0.5 4.0 7.3 18.5 6.7 (26.0) (31.5) (18.0) (6.2) Canada (Aug/Jul) 2014/15 10.4 29.4 0.1 39.8 2.6 0.9 4.4 8.9 23.9 7.1 2015/16 est. 7.1 27.6 0.1 34.7 2.5 0.9 4.2 8.7 21.8 4.2 2016/17 f'cast 4.2 30.0 0.1 34.3 2.8 1.0 4.0 8.8 21.0 4.5 (29.5) (33.8) (20.5) EU* (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 9.5 156.1 6.2 171.8 54.5 10.8 52.2 123.9 36.2 11.7 2015/16 est. 11.7 159.8 7.0 178.6 54.4 10.7 56.0 127.4 35.7 15.5 2016/17 f'cast 15.5 145.2 6.4 167.1 54.5 10.8 54.0 126.6 27.3 13.2 (16.3) (149.0) (5.5) (170.7) (54.5) (127.1) (30.8) (12.8) of which common wheat 2014/15 9.1 148.5 3.4 161.0 47.3 10.8 52.2 116.0 34.0 10.9 2015/16 est. 10.9 151.3 4.5 166.8 47.2 10.7 56.0 119.5 33.4 13.9 2016/17 f'cast 13.9 136.3 4.1 154.3 47.3 10.8 54.0 118.5 25.2 10.6 (14.9) (139.9) (3.4) (158.1) (46.8) (54.5) (118.7) (28.8) (10.7) Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 1.7 13.0 0.4 15.1 2.2 0.0 2.0 6.8 5.9 2.4 2015/16 est. 2.4 13.7 0.1 16.2 2.2 0.0 2.1 6.4 7.3 2.6 2016/17 f'cast 2.6 14.5 0.0 17.1 2.3 0.0 2.0 6.7 7.5 2.9 (13.5) (16.1) (7.0) (2.4) Russia (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 6.1 59.1 0.4 65.6 12.9 1.5 14.0 36.6 22.2 6.9 2015/16 est. 6.9 61.0 0.6 68.5 13.3 1.5 14.2 37.2 25.7 5.6 2016/17 f'cast 5.6 70.0 0.5 76.1 13.1 1.5 15.5 38.1 30.7 7.3 (6.0) (67.5) (74.0) (14.6) (37.2) (27.6) (9.2) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 3.9 24.7 0.0 28.6 5.7 0.2 4.0 12.0 11.2 5.5 2015/16 est. 5.5 27.3 0.0 32.7 5.8 0.2 4.0 12.2 17.4 3.1 2016/17 f'cast 3.1 26.5 0.0 29.6 5.9 0.2 4.0 12.4 14.0 3.3 (3.3) (25.0) (28.3) (12.1) (3.9) USA (Jun/May) 2014/15 16.1 55.1 4.1 75.3 25.6 0.5 3.3 31.6 23.2 20.5 2015/16 est. 20.5 55.8 3.1 79.4 25.7 0.5 3.6 31.6 21.1 26.7 2016/17 f'cast 26.7 63.2 3.1 92.9 25.9 0.5 9.0 37.1 25.0 30.9 (61.5) (3.3) (91.5) (8.2) (36.3) (24.5) (30.7) MAJOR EXPORTERS b) 2014/15 54.2 375.2 11.2 440.6 109.9 14.4 84.4 232.5 144.6 63.5 2015/16 est. 63.5 380.8 10.9 455.2 110.4 14.3 88.7 236.6 154.4 64.2 2016/17 f'cast 64.2 390.5 10.2 464.9 111.1 14.5 93.0 242.8 152.5 69.6 (65.6) (386.6) (9.5) (461.6) (91.8) (241.6) (149.3) (70.7) China (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 58.7 126.2 2.1 187.1 88.0 3.2 22.0 123.4 0.2 63.4 2015/16 est. 63.4 130.2 3.5 197.1 88.0 3.2 16.0 117.5 0.2 79.5 2016/17 f'cast 79.5 126.0 3.5 209.0 88.0 3.3 17.5 118.1 0.4 90.5 (79.1) (3.2) (208.3) (89.8) India (Apr/Mar) 2014/15 17.8 95.9 0.3 113.9 80.5 0.2 5.0 93.3 3.4 17.2 2015/16 est. 17.2 86.5 0.4 104.1 78.9 0.2 3.4 88.7 0.9 14.5 2016/17 f'cast 14.5 93.5 1.0 109.0 82.0 0.2 5.0 94.4 0.3 14.3 (90.0) (105.5) (81.0) (4.0) (92.4) (12.8) WORLD TOTAL e) e) 2014/15 188.4 730.4 153.3 918.8 480.6 22.0 144.8 715.9 153.3 202.8 2015/16 est. 202.8 736.4 164.8 939.2 487.0 21.8 146.0 721.9 164.8 217.3 2016/17 f'cast 217.3 743.2 162.1 960.6 492.7 22.0 149.7 731.7 162.1 228.9 (219.0) (735.4) (158.7) (954.4) (490.0) (147.5) (726.8) (158.7) (227.7)

Table 18C SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks TOTAL COARSE GRAINS 2014/15 223.5 1,316.6 168.9 1,540.1 185.2 302.2 745.0 1,291.8 168.9 248.4 2015/16 est. 248.4 1,263.8 178.2 1,512.1 177.9 305.2 730.2 1,260.4 178.2 251.7 2016/17 f'cast 251.7 1,325.6 167.9 1,577.3 183.5 311.0 758.0 1,314.0 167.9 263.3 (252.4) (1310.5) (165.3) (1562.9) (183.3) (312.0) (749.0) (1302.3) (165.3) (260.6)

MAIZE Argentina (Mar/Feb) 2014/15 1.8 33.1 0.0 34.9 0.3 2.0 10.5 13.6 17.1 4.2 2015/16 est. 4.2 33.8 0.0 38.0 0.3 2.2 11.5 14.8 18.9 4.3 2016/17 f'cast 4.3 37.9 0.0 42.2 0.3 2.3 12.1 15.4 23.0 3.8 2017/18 proj. 3.8 39.2 1.0 44.0 0.3 2.3 12.5 15.9 24.0 4.2

Brazil (Mar/Feb) 2014/15 8.5 80.1 0.8 89.4 4.4 3.1 44.2 54.6 21.0 13.9 2015/16 est. 13.9 84.7 0.3 98.9 4.5 3.5 45.2 56.1 34.4 8.3 2016/17 f'cast 8.3 68.5 2.0 78.8 4.3 3.2 45.6 55.4 18.5 4.9 2017/18 proj. 4.9 83.7 0.5 89.0 4.5 4.0 47.0 58.4 24.0 6.6

EU* (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 6.6 76.2 9.4 92.2 4.2 14.1 60.1 80.9 3.9 7.3 2015/16 est. 7.3 58.2 13.2 78.7 4.2 13.2 49.9 69.6 1.8 7.3 2016/17 f'cast 7.3 61.6 11.5 80.4 4.2 14.5 51.5 72.6 2.0 5.9 (62.9) (10.5) (80.6) (72.7) (6.0) South Africa (May/Apr) 2014/15 0.9 15.0 0.0 15.8 5.7 0.1 5.3 11.6 2.0 2.2 2015/16 est. 2.2 10.6 2.0 14.8 5.4 0.1 5.8 11.8 0.7 2.3 2016/17 f'cast 2.3 7.7 3.5 13.5 5.3 0.1 5.7 11.5 0.7 1.3 2017/18 proj. 1.3 12.9 0.4 14.6 5.6 0.1 5.4 11.7 1.0 1.9

Ukraine (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 2.6 28.5 0.0 31.1 0.5 0.3 8.0 9.9 18.9 2.3 2015/16 est. 2.3 23.3 0.0 25.5 0.5 0.3 6.7 8.3 16.5 0.7 2016/17 f'cast 0.7 26.5 0.0 27.2 0.3 0.2 6.3 7.4 19.0 0.8

USA (Sep/Aug) f) 2014/15 31.3 361.1 0.8 393.2 5.1 160.9 135.2 301.9 47.3 44.0 2015/16 est. 44.0 345.5 1.7 391.1 5.2 160.9 132.1 298.9 48.9 43.3 2016/17 f'cast 43.3 378.8 1.3 423.4 5.1 162.4 142.2 310.5 55.0 57.9 (43.2) (365.2) (1.0) (409.4) (163.1) (137.2) (306.1) (50.4) (52.9)

China (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 86.1 215.6 5.5 307.2 7.6 53.0 138.0 208.6 0.2 98.4 2015/16 est. 98.4 224.6 4.0 327.0 7.7 55.0 144.5 217.1 0.2 109.7 2016/17 f'cast 109.7 219.0 2.0 330.7 7.7 57.0 149.5 224.2 0.2 106.3

Japan (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 0.8 0.0 14.7 15.4 1.1 3.4 10.1 14.9 0.0 0.5 2015/16 est. 0.5 0.0 15.0 15.5 1.1 3.2 10.3 14.9 0.0 0.6 2016/17 f'cast 0.6 0.0 15.0 15.6 1.1 3.2 10.3 14.9 0.0 0.7

WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2014/15 182.1 1,018.3 125.1 1,200.4 114.2 264.5 575.7 993.5 125.1 206.9 2015/16 est. 206.9 968.5 134.8 1,175.4 110.5 265.1 565.3 968.7 134.8 206.7 2016/17 f'cast 206.7 1,029.9 131.4 1,236.7 112.4 271.1 593.9 1,018.7 131.4 217.9 (206.9) (1016.7) (129.6) (1223.6) (272.8) (587.0) (1010.1) (129.6) (213.5)

Table 18D SUPPLY & DEMAND: BARLEY & SORGHUM# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks BARLEY Argentina (Dec/Nov) c) c) 2014/15 1.1 2.9 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.4 0.9 2015/16 est. 0.9 4.9 0.0 5.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.0 3.5 1.3 2016/17 f'cast 1.3 3.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.8 2.8 0.8 (1.8) (3.2) (5.0) (0.3) (0.4) (3.0) (1.2) Australia (Nov/Oct) c) c) 2014/15 0.2 8.6 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.1 5.9 0.8 2015/16 est. 0.8 8.6 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.8 5.5 1.1 2016/17 f'cast 1.1 9.3 0.0 10.4 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.0 5.9 1.6 (9.0) (10.1) (2.3) (2.9) (5.5) (1.8) Canada (Aug/Jul) c) c) 2014/15 1.9 7.1 0.2 9.3 0.0 0.2 5.3 5.6 2.5 1.2 2015/16 est. 1.2 8.2 0.1 9.6 0.1 0.2 5.6 6.1 2.1 1.5 2016/17 f'cast 1.5 8.4 0.1 10.0 0.1 0.2 5.9 6.3 2.2 1.5 (1.4) (8.1) (0.2) (9.7) (5.8) (6.2) (2.1) (1.4) EU* (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2014/15 6.2 60.5 0.3 66.9 0.4 9.3 35.2 48.0 12.9 6.1 2015/16 est. 6.1 60.8 0.5 67.3 0.4 9.3 34.4 47.2 14.3 5.8 2016/17 f'cast 5.8 59.7 0.3 65.8 0.4 9.3 35.9 48.5 10.5 6.8 (5.9) (62.0) (68.2) (35.1) (48.0) (11.6) (8.7) Russia (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2014/15 0.5 20.0 0.2 20.7 0.2 1.6 9.0 13.7 5.3 1.7 2015/16 est. 1.7 17.1 0.2 19.0 0.2 1.5 9.2 13.7 4.4 0.9 2016/17 f'cast 0.9 18.5 0.2 19.6 0.2 1.4 9.3 13.8 4.4 1.3 (0.8) (18.0) (19.0) (4.0) (1.2) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2014/15 0.8 9.4 0.0 10.2 0.2 0.4 3.0 4.5 4.5 1.3 2015/16 est. 1.3 8.7 0.0 10.0 0.2 0.4 3.3 4.9 4.4 0.7 2016/17 f'cast 0.7 9.8 0.0 10.6 0.2 0.3 3.3 5.0 4.3 1.3 (8.8) (9.5) (3.0) (4.5) (3.8) (1.2) Saudi Arabia (Jul/Jun) c) c) 2014/15 3.6 0.0 8.2 11.8 0.1 0.0 8.3 8.4 0.0 3.4 2015/16 est. 3.4 0.0 11.0 14.4 0.1 0.0 9.8 9.8 0.0 4.5 2016/17 f'cast 4.5 0.0 9.3 13.8 0.1 0.0 9.4 9.5 0.0 4.3

WORLD TOTAL g), h) g), h) 2014/15 26.6 143.7 29.1 170.3 7.1 29.7 97.2 144.4 29.1 25.9 2015/16 est. 25.9 147.6 29.3 173.5 7.3 29.8 96.6 144.3 29.3 29.2 2016/17 f'cast 29.2 144.9 25.3 174.1 7.4 30.2 96.2 144.4 25.3 29.7 (29.9) (144.5) (25.1) (174.4) (30.1) (94.5) (142.6) (25.1) (31.8)

SORGHUM Argentina (Mar/Feb) 2014/15 0.5 3.5 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.1 1.9 2.1 1.3 0.3 2015/16 est. 0.3 3.1 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.3 0.9 0.5 2016/17 f'cast 0.5 3.1 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.3 0.9 0.5 2017/18 proj. 0.5 3.0 0.0 3.5 0.1 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 (0.4) (3.4) (0.0) (0.2) (1.7) (2.1) (1.1) Australia (Mar/Feb) 2014/15 0.2 1.3 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 2015/16 est. 0.2 2.2 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.6 0.1 2016/17 f'cast 0.1 2.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 2017/18 proj. 0.1 2.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.2

USA (Sep/Aug) 2014/15 0.9 11.0 0.0 11.9 0.1 0.3 2.0 2.5 9.0 0.5 2015/16 est. 0.5 15.2 0.1 15.7 0.3 3.0 2.6 6.0 8.5 1.2 2016/17 f'cast 1.2 12.1 0.0 13.3 0.3 2.6 2.5 5.5 6.1 1.6 (10.7) (11.9) (0.2) (2.3) (2.6) (5.1) (5.6) (1.3)

WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2014/15 4.5 64.3 11.8 68.8 29.1 4.2 29.2 64.4 11.8 4.4 2015/16 est. 4.4 62.9 11.2 67.3 27.1 6.8 27.9 63.0 11.2 4.3 2016/17 f'cast 4.3 64.8 8.3 69.0 29.0 6.3 27.5 64.5 8.3 4.5 (63.1) (7.7) (67.3) (28.8) (5.8) (27.2) (63.4) (7.7) (3.9)

Table 18E # SUPPLY & DEMAND: OATS & RYE Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Industrial Feed Total a) stocks OATS Australia (Nov/Oct) 2014/15 0.3 1.2 0.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 2015/16 est. 0.2 1.3 0.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.1 2016/17 f'cast 0.1 1.6 0.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.1

Canada (Aug/Jul) 2014/15 1.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.0 2.3 0.7 2015/16 est. 0.7 3.4 0.0 4.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.1 2.2 0.9 2016/17 f'cast 0.9 3.0 0.0 3.9 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.1 2.3 0.5 (3.3) (4.1) (0.8) EU* (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 0.6 7.9 0.0 8.5 1.2 0.1 5.0 6.9 0.2 1.4 2015/16 est. 1.4 7.5 0.0 8.9 1.2 0.1 4.8 6.6 0.2 2.1 2016/17 f'cast 2.1 7.7 0.0 9.8 1.2 0.1 4.7 6.7 0.3 2.8 (7.8) (4.8) (6.8) USA (Jun/May) 2014/15 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 1.0 0.0 1.4 2.4 0.0 0.8 2015/16 est. 0.8 1.3 1.6 3.7 1.1 0.0 1.7 2.9 0.0 0.8 2016/17 f'cast 0.8 1.1 1.8 3.7 1.1 0.0 1.6 2.9 0.0 0.8

WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2014/15 2.9 23.0 2.3 25.9 4.8 0.1 14.8 22.2 2.3 3.8 2015/16 est. 3.8 22.6 2.3 26.3 4.9 0.1 14.8 22.0 2.3 4.4 2016/17 f'cast 4.4 23.0 2.4 27.4 5.0 0.1 14.9 22.6 2.4 4.9 (23.3) (27.7) (5.1)

RYE

EU* (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 1.0 8.9 0.1 10.0 3.1 1.6 3.8 8.8 0.2 1.0 2015/16 est. 1.0 7.7 0.1 8.8 3.0 1.5 3.0 7.9 0.2 0.8 2016/17 f'cast 0.8 7.8 0.1 8.7 3.1 1.4 3.0 7.9 0.2 0.7 (7.9) (8.8) (3.0) (0.1) (0.8) Russia (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 0.4 3.3 0.0 3.7 2.0 0.5 0.5 3.2 0.1 0.4 2015/16 est. 0.4 2.1 0.0 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.4 2.3 0.1 0.2 2016/17 f'cast 0.2 2.3 0.0 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.2 2.2 0.1 0.2

WORLD TOTAL g) g) 2014/15 1.7 15.3 0.4 17.0 7.2 2.2 5.2 15.2 0.4 1.8 2015/16 est. 1.8 12.9 0.3 14.7 6.5 2.0 4.3 13.5 0.3 1.2 2016/17 f'cast 1.2 13.2 0.3 14.4 6.5 1.9 4.2 13.3 0.3 1.1 (13.3) (14.5) (13.4) (1.2)

# IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report. Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum. For example, for Argentina, the "2016/17" year includes the 2016/17 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2017/18 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize. a) Including seed and waste f) Includes residual b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, g) IGC July/June trade Russia, Ukraine, United States h) Excludes trade in malt c) Includes trade in malt Totals may not sum due to rounding d) Including estimated trade in secondary products Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products

Table 19 SUPPLY & DEMAND: DURUM WHEAT# (major exporters) # Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports a)Closing stocks supply Food Feed Total stocks DURUM WHEAT Canada (Aug/Jul) 2014/15 1.8 5.2 0.0 7.0 0.2 b) 0.4 c) 0.8 5.2 1.0 2015/16 est. 1.0 5.4 0.0 6.4 0.2 b) 0.4 c) 0.9 4.5 1.0 2016/17 f'cast 1.0 6.5 0.0 7.5 0.2 b) 0.5 c) 0.9 5.2 1.4 (6.2) (7.2) (0.4) (5.0) (1.3) EU* (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 0.4 7.6 2.8 10.8 7.2 0.1 7.8 2.2 0.8 2015/16 est. 0.8 8.5 2.5 11.8 7.2 0.1 7.9 2.3 1.6 2016/17 f'cast 1.6 8.9 2.3 12.8 7.2 0.3 8.1 2.0 2.6 (1.4) (9.1) (2.1) (12.6) (7.7) (0.2) (8.4) (2.1) Mexico (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 0.1 2.3 T 2.3 0.6 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.1 2015/16 est. 0.1 2.3 T 2.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.1 2016/17 f'cast 0.1 2.5 T 2.5 0.7 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.1 (1.0) USA (Jun/May) 2014/15 0.6 1.5 1.4 3.4 1.7 T 1.8 1.0 0.7 2015/16 est. 0.7 2.2 0.9 3.8 2.2 T 2.3 0.8 0.8 2016/17 f'cast 0.8 2.3 1.0 4.0 2.1 T 2.1 1.0 0.9

Total 4 major exporters a) 2014/15 2.8 16.6 4.2 23.5 9.7 0.9 11.7 9.4 2.5 2015/16 est. 2.5 18.4 3.4 24.3 10.0 0.7 11.8 9.1 3.4 2016/17 f'cast 3.4 20.1 3.3 26.8 10.2 1.0 12.2 9.7 4.9 (3.2) (20.0) (3.1) (26.3) (10.6) (0.8) (12.5) (9.4) (4.4)

WORLD TOTAL d) d) 2014/15 7.1 34.5 9.3 41.6 29.3 1.6 35.3 9.3 6.3 2015/16 est. 6.3 39.1 8.7 45.4 30.1 1.9 37.0 8.7 8.3 2016/17 f'cast 8.3 38.4 9.2 46.7 30.6 2.1 37.9 9.2 8.8 (7.8) (38.3) (9.1) (46.1) (30.9) (1.9) (38.0) (9.1) (8.1)

# IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates elsewhere in this report. Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate. a) Including semolina and secondary products b) Including industrial uses c) Including waste and dockage d) IGC July/June trade, excluding trade in secondary products

PRODUCTION: DURUM WHEAT TRADE: DURUM WHEAT (incl. semolina)

Million tons (July/June) COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) 000 tons (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 EU 8.1 7.6 8.5 9.1 8.9 < IMPORTS France 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.4 < EU 1,902 2,828 2,478 2,100 2,300 < Greece 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 Mexico 20 60 20 20 20 Italy 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.8 4.8 USA 819 908 395 750 500 < Spain 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 Chile 36 78 15 30 30 Peru 131 158 110 130 130 Kazakhstan 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 Venezuela 440 407 350 400 400 Canada 6.5 5.2 5.4 6.2 6.5 < Japan 212 205 200 200 200 Mexico 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 Algeria 1,529 1,748 1,740 1,900 1,900 USA 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.3 2.3 Libya 162 50 10 60 50 < Morocco 734 633 840 1,100 1,100 Argentina 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 Tunisia 676 534 800 800 850 < Syria 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.3 Nigeria 135 130 75 130 75 < Turkey 4.1 3.3 4.1 3.6 3.6 Others & Unspec. 1,353 1,524 1,672 1,480 1,645 < India 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 WORLD TOTAL 8,150 9,264 8,705 9,100 9,200 < of which semolina 369 390 400 400 420 < Algeria 2.5 1.3 2.3 1.9 1.9 EXPORTS Libya 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Australia 245 102 175 220 200 < Morocco 1.9 1.4 2.4 0.9 0.9 Canada 4,740 5,680 4,354 5,100 5,100 Tunisia 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 EU 1,089 1,207 1,370 1,100 1,100 of which semolina 200 200 200 200 200 Australia 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Kazakhstan 83 131 170 200 200 Mexico 1,275 1,039 1,484 1,400 1,400 < Others 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.9 Turkey 4 101 100 100 100 USA 689 773 620 700 800 < WORLD TOTAL 38.8 34.5 39.1 38.3 38.4 <

Table 20 Table 21 PRODUCTION: ALL RICE TRADE: ALL RICE Million tons (January/December) COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) Million tons (milled basis) (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 IMPORTS 2014 2015 2016 2017 (proj.) EUROPE 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 EU* 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 CIS 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 EUROPE 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.8 < EU* 0.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.7 < N & C AMERICA 8.0 9.1 7.9 9.7 9.7 Cuba 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 CIS 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 < USA 6.1 7.1 6.1 7.8 7.8 Russia 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 < Others 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 N & C AMERICA 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1 < SOUTH AMERICA 16.3 16.4 15.2 16.6 16.1 < Canada 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Argentina 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 Cuba 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.1 < Brazil 8.2 8.5 7.2 8.5 8.2 < Haiti 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Uruguay 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 Mexico 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Others 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.2 6.0 < United States 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 NEAR EAST ASIA 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 < Others 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 < Iran 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 < SOUTH AMERICA 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.8 < Iraq 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 Brazil 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 < Others 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Others 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.8 1.2 < FAR EAST ASIA 428.7 428.8 425.0 435.7 432.6 < NEAR EAST ASIA 7.5 7.4 6.5 7.4 6.7 < Pacific Asia 274.2 275.5 273.4 279.8 277.8 < Iran 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.0 < Cambodia 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Iraq 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 < China 142.5 144.6 145.8 146.3 146.4 < Saudi Arabia 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 < Indonesia 36.3 35.6 36.2 37.5 36.8 < UAE 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 Japan 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.9 Others 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.1 < Myanmar 12.0 12.6 12.2 12.5 12.5 Philippines 11.9 11.9 11.3 11.7 11.8 < FAR EAST ASIA 13.4 13.4 12.6 14.6 12.9 < Thailand 20.3 18.7 16.7 20.2 18.6 < Bangladesh 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.5 < Vietnam 28.0 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.5 China 3.7 4.2 4.2 5.0 4.2 < Others 38.6 39.6 38.9 39.0 39.0 Indonesia 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 < South Asia 154.5 153.3 151.6 156.0 154.8 < Japan 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Bangladesh 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 Korea (South) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 India 106.7 105.5 103.6 107.5 106.5 < Malaysia 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 < Pakistan 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.9 Philippines 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.6 < Others 6.7 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.9 < Others 3.7 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 < AFRICA 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.2 AFRICA 15.8 14.7 15.0 14.7 14.7 North Africa 4.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 Sub-Sahara 15.6 14.4 14.6 14.3 14.3 Egypt 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 Benin 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 < sub-Saharan Africa 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.2 15.2 Cameroon 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Madagascar 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 Côte d'Ivoire 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.5 < Nigeria 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 Ghana 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 Others 8.7 8.9 9.9 10.2 10.2 Mozambique 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 < OCEANIA 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 Nigeria 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.2 < Senegal 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 WORLD TOTAL 477.7 478.8 472.7 487.2 483.7 < South Africa 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 < Others 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 < Table 21a OCEANIA 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 MAIN RICE EXPORTERS: PROGRESS REPORT UNSPECIFIED 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.8 < (marketing years) SUB-TOTAL 45.2 44.2 43.0 44.2 42.9 < '000 tons Current Year % change Less re-exports a) 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 < Year Ago year on year ARGENTINA WORLD TOTAL 42.4 41.9 40.3 41.8 40.3 < Apr/Mar Apr - Jun shipments 141 38 + 273 a) including estimates of cross-border trade 16/17 BRAZIL Million tons (milled basis) Apr/Mar Apr - Jul shipments 259 231 + 12 16/17 EXPORTS 2014 2015 2016 2017 (proj.) EU (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Sep/Aug Sep - Jun shipments 222 241 - 8 15/16 1 Sep - 16 Aug shipments 231 226 + 2 India 11.2 10.9 9.2 7.0 8.7 < INDIA Pakistan 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.0 4.0 Oct/Sep Oct - May shipments 6,573 8,161 - 19 Thailand 10.9 9.8 10.1 11.2 9.5 < 15/16 USA 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.7 < THAILAND Vietnam 6.4 6.6 6.0 7.8 6.9 < Jan/Dec Jan - Jun shipments 4,981 4,447 + 12 2016 1 Jan - 14 Aug 2016 shipments 2,161 1) 2,452 1) - 12 5 LEADING EXPORTERS 35.5 34.8 33.0 33.8 32.6 < Argentina 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 URUGUAY Australia 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Apr/Mar Apr - May shipments 141 136 + 4 16/17 Brazil 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 USA Cambodia 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 11 Aug shipments 90 2) 60 2) + 49 China 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 < 16/17 Net sales for week ending 11 Aug (92) 2) Egypt 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 < 2) 2) Outstanding commitments 458 736 - 38 EU* 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 < TOTAL 548 2) 796 2) - 31 Guyana 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2) 2) - 31 Of which: Rough 280 406 Japan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 < Milled 230 2) 357 2) - 36 Brown 38 2) 34 2) + 14 Myanmar 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 VIETNAM Uruguay 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 2016 1 Jan - 31 Jul shipments 2,900 3,100 - 6 Others 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 < Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Brazil: Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade EU: Commission India: Ministry of Commerce Thailand: Thai Customs Department Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay USA: USDA Vietnam: Vietnam Food Association * Data refer to milled weight basis unless otherwise stated 1) White and parboiled rice 2) Product weight basis

Table 22 SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE# Million tons (milled basis) Opening Production Imports Total Total Exports Closing stocks supply use a) stocks India (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 22.9 105.5 0.1 128.5 99.0 11.8 17.7 2015/16 f'cast 17.7 103.6 0.1 121.4 93.5 9.4 18.5 2016/17 proj. 18.5 106.5 0.1 125.1 98.5 8.6 18.0 (11.6) (107.5) (119.2) (100.8) (7.5) (10.9) Pakistan (Nov/Oct) 2014/15 est. 1.0 6.9 0.1 8.0 2.6 3.9 1.5 2015/16 f'cast 1.5 6.7 0.1 8.2 2.7 4.8 0.7 2016/17 proj. 0.7 6.9 0.1 7.7 2.8 4.1 0.9 (0.9) (7.8) (3.0) (4.0) Thailand (Jan/Dec) 2014/15 est. 11.8 18.7 0.3 30.9 11.0 9.8 10.1 2015/16 f'cast 10.1 16.7 0.3 27.1 11.2 10.1 5.9 2016/17 proj. 5.9 18.6 0.3 24.8 11.2 9.5 4.2 (5.1) (20.2) (0.4) (25.7) (11.4) (11.2) (3.1) USA (Aug/Jul) 2014/15 est. 1.0 7.1 0.8 8.9 4.3 3.1 1.6 2015/16 f'cast 1.6 6.1 0.8 8.4 3.9 3.3 1.3 2016/17 proj. 1.3 7.8 0.8 9.8 4.4 3.7 1.7 (1.1) (0.7) (9.5) (4.2) (3.8) (1.6) Vietnam (Jan/Dec) 2014/15 est. 1.2 28.8 0.1 30.1 22.2 6.6 1.3 2015/16 f'cast 1.3 28.4 0.2 29.9 22.2 6.0 1.7 2016/17 proj. 1.7 28.9 0.4 31.0 22.2 6.9 1.6 (1.9) (0.2) (30.9) (21.4) (7.8) (1.4) Total 5 leading exporters b) 2014/15 est. 38.0 167.0 1.4 206.3 139.1 35.2 32.1 2015/16 f'cast 32.1 161.5 1.4 195.0 133.5 33.5 28.1 2016/17 proj. 28.1 168.7 1.6 198.3 139.0 32.6 26.4 (20.5) (171.2) (1.5) (193.2) (140.8) (34.2) (17.8) Bangladesh (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 est. 0.9 34.5 1.1 36.5 35.1 0.0 1.4 2015/16 f'cast 1.4 34.5 0.2 36.1 35.0 0.0 1.1 2016/17 proj. 1.1 34.5 0.4 36.0 35.2 0.0 0.8 (0.8) (1.1) (36.4) (35.6) China (Jan/Dec) 2014/15 est. 51.7 144.6 4.2 200.4 142.8 0.3 57.4 2015/16 f'cast 57.4 145.8 4.2 207.4 145.5 0.3 61.6 2016/17 proj. 61.6 146.4 4.2 212.2 146.9 0.3 65.0 (56.3) (146.3) (5.0) (207.6) (149.3) (0.6) (57.7) Indonesia (Jan/Dec) 2014/15 est. 4.0 35.6 1.3 40.8 38.0 0.0 2.8 2015/16 f'cast 2.8 36.2 1.5 40.5 38.0 0.0 2.5 2016/17 proj. 2.5 36.8 1.4 40.8 37.9 0.0 2.9 (1.4) (37.5) (1.5) (40.4) (39.0) (1.4) Philippines (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 est. 2.3 11.9 1.8 16.0 13.0 0.0 3.0 2015/16 f'cast 3.0 11.3 1.9 16.2 13.0 0.0 3.2 2016/17 proj. 3.2 11.8 1.5 16.6 13.3 0.0 3.3 (2.2) (11.7) (1.8) (15.7) (13.5) (2.2) WORLD TOTAL 2014/15 est. 115.6 478.8 41.9 594.4 478.1 41.9 116.4 2015/16 f'cast 116.4 472.7 40.3 589.1 474.6 40.3 114.5 2016/17 proj. 114.5 483.7 40.3 598.2 482.2 40.3 116.0 (101.4) (487.2) (41.8) (588.6) (488.8) (41.8) (99.9)

# IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report. a) Including seed and waste. b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam. Totals may not sum due to rounding. Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

Table 23 Table 24 PRODUCTION: SOYABEANS PRODUCTION: RAPESEED / CANOLA Million tons Million tons COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) COUNTRY 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 EUROPE 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 EUROPE 21.1 24.4 22.0 21.0 20.2 < EU* 1.21.82.32.22.3< EU* 21.0 24.4 22.0 20.9 20.2 < CIS 4.4 6.2 6.5 7.1 6.9 < Bulgaria 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 N & C AMERICA 97.0 113.3 113.5 111.1 115.1 < Czech Republic Canada 5.4 6.0 6.2 5.7 5.7 Denmark 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 USA 91.4 106.9 106.9 105.0 109.0 < France 4.4 5.5 5.3 4.8 4.5 < Others 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Germany 5.8 6.3 5.0 4.9 4.7 < Hungary 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 SOUTH AMERICA 153.6 171.9 168.3 172.3 172.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Argentina 53.4 61.4 58.8 56.0 56.0 Lithuania Bolivia 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 Poland 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 < Brazil 86.1 96.2 95.4 101.0 101.0 Romania 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.4 < Paraguay 8.28.18.88.98.9 United Kingdom 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.0 < Uruguay 3.33.32.03.03.0 Other EU 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 Others 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 CIS 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 < FAR EAST ASIA 25.4 24.1 22.3 25.3 25.5 < Belarus 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 < Pacific Asia 13.5 13.7 13.1 14.1 14.1 Russia 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 China 12.0 12.2 11.6 12.6 12.6 Ukraine 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.2 < Indonesia 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Others 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 N & C AMERICA 19.6 17.6 18.5 17.2 18.3 < Canada 18.6 16.4 17.2 15.9 17.0 < South Asia 11.9 10.4 9.1 11.2 11.4 < India 11.9 10.4 9.1 11.2 11.4 < USA 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 FAR EAST ASIA 21.6 20.3 21.0 19.5 19.5 AFRICA 2.02.31.92.32.3 Pacific Asia 14.5 14.8 14.9 12.6 12.6 China 14.5 14.8 14.9 12.6 12.6 WORLD TOTAL 284.4 320.4 315.7 321.3 325.4 < South Asia 7.1 5.5 6.1 6.9 6.9 India 6.7 5.1 5.8 6.5 6.5 OCEANIA 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 Australia 3.8 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 WORLD TOTAL 71.6 71.4 68.9 65.1 65.2 < Table 25 TRADE: SOYABEANS Table 25a (October/September) MAIN SOYABEAN EXPORTERS: Million tons PROGRESS REPORT IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) (marketing years) (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 '000 tons EUROPE 13.3 14.4 14.5 14.0 14.3 < Current Year % change EU* 12.9 13.5 13.5 13.0 13.3 < Year Ago year on year N & C AMERICA 6.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 ARGENTINA - 30 Canada 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Apr/Mar 1 Apr - 17 Aug shipments 10,311 14,642 16/17 Mexico 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 Others 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 BRAZIL Feb/Jan Feb - Jul shipments 43,961 40,603 + 8 SOUTH AMERICA 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.8 < 16/17 Brazil 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 < Others 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.6 < CANADA Sep/Aug Sep - Jun shipments 3,900 3,607 + 8 NEAR EAST ASIA 3.0 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 15/16 Iran 0.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 Israel 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 UKRAINE Turkey 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 Sep/Aug Sep - Jun shipments 2,178 2,264 - 4 Others 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 15/16 FAR EAST ASIA 83.6 95.2 100.1 104.1 104.5 < URUGUAY China 70.8 80.1 84.0 88.0 88.0 Apr/Mar Apr - May shipments 614 1,245 - 51 Taipei, Chinese 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 16/17 Indonesia 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 USA Japan 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 Sep/Aug 1 Sep - 11 Aug shipments 48,054 49,235 - 2 Korea (S) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 15/16 Net sales for week ending 11 Aug (178) Vietnam 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 Outstanding commitments 4,794 1,524 + 215 Thailand 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 TOTAL 52,848 50,758 + 4 Others 1.2 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.8 < Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry AFRICA 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 Brazil: SECEX – Foreign Trade Secretariat Egypt 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.9 Canada: Statistics Canada Others 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult OTHERS & UNSP. 2.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.0 < Uruguay: Central Bank of Uruguay USA: USDA WORLD TOTAL 113.1 126.8 132.2 135.0 135.9 < Million tons EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Argentina 7.8 10.6 10.1 9.8 9.8 Brazil 46.8 50.6 56.3 57.5 57.5 Canada 3.2 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.8 China 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Paraguay 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.7 Ukraine 1.3 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.4 USA 45.0 50.8 51.2 52.3 53.1 < Others 3.9 3.8 3.0 4.3 4.4 < WORLD TOTAL 113.1 126.8 132.2 135.0 135.9 <

Table 26 Table 26a TRADE: SOYAMEAL MAIN SOYAMEAL EXPORTERS: (October/September) PROGRESS REPORT Million tons (marketing years) IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) '000 tons (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Current Year % change Year Ago year on year EUROPE 19.7 21.1 21.9 22.4 22.4 EU* 19.5 20.9 21.7 22.2 22.2 ARGENTINA + 6 N & C AMERICA 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 Apr/Mar Apr - Jun shipments 8,044 7,591 < 16/17 Canada 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Mexico 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 < BOLIVIA Others 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Mar/Feb Mar - May shipments 398 343 + 16 16/17 SOUTH AMERICA 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.7 5.8 < Chile 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 BRAZIL Colombia 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 < Feb/Jan Feb - Jul shipments 8,646 8,404 + 3 Peru 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 16/17 Others 1.9 1.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 CHINA NEAR EAST ASIA 5.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.7 Oct/Sep Oct - Jun shipments 1,226 1,044 + 17 15/16 Iran 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 Others 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 INDIA Oct/Sep Oct - May shipments 198 1,252 - 84 FAR EAST ASIA 18.4 19.5 20.8 21.8 21.9 < 15/16 Indonesia 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.4 Japan 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 PARAGUAY Korea (S) 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 Mar/Feb Mar - Jul shipments 1,193 1,160 + 3 16/17 Malaysia 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 < Philippines 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 USA Thailand 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 Oct/Sep 1 Oct - 11 Aug shipments 9,044 10,295 - 12 Vietnam 3.1 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.7 15/16 Net sales for week ending 11 Aug (121) Outstanding commitments 1,460 1,160 + 26 Others 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 < TOTAL 10,504 11,455 - 8 AFRICA 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.0 4.6 < Algeria 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 < Sources: Argentina: Ag. Ministry Bolivia: Bolivia Customs Egypt 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.5 < Brazil: SECEX – Foreign Trade Secretariat South Africa 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 China: Gen. Admin. of Customs India: Ministry of Commerce Others 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Paraguay: Central Bank USA: USDA OCEANIA 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 < OTHERS & UNSP. 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 < WORLD TOTAL 58.0 61.0 64.3 65.1 66.0 < Million tons EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Argentina 23.0 26.3 30.3 30.0 30.0 Brazil 14.1 14.6 16.0 15.5 16.3 < China 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 EU* 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 India 3.1 1.4 0.2 1.0 1.0 Paraguay 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 USA 10.4 11.8 10.7 11.1 11.2 < Others 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5 WORLD TOTAL 58.0 61.0 64.3 65.1 66.0 <

Table 27 Table 27a TRADE: RAPESEED / CANOLA MAIN RAPESEED / CANOLA EXPORTERS: (October/September) PROGRESS REPORT Million tons IMPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) (marketing years) (est.) (f'cast) '000 tons 28.07.16 25.08.16 Current Year % change EUROPE 3.4 2.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 Year Ago year on year EU* 3.4 2.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 AUSTRALIA N & C AMERICA 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 < Nov/Oct Nov - Jun shipments 1,680 2,359 - 29 Mexico 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 < 15/16 USA 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 CANADA Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Aug/Jul 1 Aug - 14 Aug shipments 236 235 - FAR EAST ASIA 8.9 8.1 7.8 7.1 7.0 < 16/17 China 5.3 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.9 EU Japan 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 < Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 345 588 - 41 Pakistan 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 15/16 Others 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 RUSSIA OTHERS & UNSP. 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 31 110 - 72 WORLD TOTAL 16.3 14.1 13.9 12.8 12.9 < 15/16 Million tons UKRAINE EXPORTS 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 (proj.) Jul/Jun Jul - Jun shipments 1,437 1,911 - 25 15/16 (est.) (f'cast) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Argentina 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 USA - 5 Australia 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.5 < Jun/May Jun shipments 4 4 16/17 Canada 10.0 9.0 10.0 8.4 8.7 < EU* 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 Kazakhstan 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Sources: Australia: ABS Canada : CGC Russia 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EU: Commission Ukraine 2.1 1.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 Russia: Customs Committee of Russia USA 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 Ukraine: UkrAgroConsult Others 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 USA: USDA WORLD TOTAL 16.3 14.1 13.9 12.8 12.9 <

Table 28A SUPPLY & DEMAND: SOYABEANS# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Feed Crush Total a) stocks

SOYABEANS

Argentina (Apr/Mar) 2015/16 est. 5.5 61.4 0.0 66.9 0.0 1.7 44.8 47.0 11.7 8.2 2016/17 f'cast 8.2 58.8 0.5 67.5 0.0 2.1 45.5 48.2 9.8 9.5 2017/18 proj. 9.5 56.0 0.6 66.1 0.0 2.2 45.7 48.5 9.8 7.8 (8.4) (0.0) (64.4) (6.1) Brazil (Feb/Jan) 2015/16 est. 2.2 96.2 0.3 98.7 0.1 2.7 39.5 42.5 54.6 1.6 2016/17 f'cast 1.6 95.4 0.4 97.4 0.1 3.0 39.1 42.4 54.5 0.5 2017/18 proj. 0.5 101.0 0.2 101.7 0.1 3.1 40.2 43.6 57.5 0.7 (0.1) (101.6) (40.0) (43.4) USA (Sep/Aug) 2014/15 est. 2.5 106.9 0.9 110.3 0.0 3.7 50.9 54.6 50.5 5.2 2015/16 f'cast 5.2 106.9 0.7 112.8 0.0 3.5 51.2 54.7 51.2 6.9 2016/17 proj. 6.9 109.0 0.8 116.7 0.0 3.5 52.5 56.0 53.1 7.6 (9.5) (105.0) (115.3) (52.2) (55.7) (52.3) (7.3) Total 3 major exporters b) 2014/15 est. 10.1 264.5 1.2 275.9 0.1 8.1 135.2 144.1 116.8 15.0 2015/16 f'cast 15.0 261.2 1.6 277.7 0.1 8.6 135.8 145.3 115.5 16.9 2016/17 proj. 16.9 266.0 1.6 284.5 0.1 8.7 138.4 148.0 120.4 16.1 (18.4) (262.0) (0.9) (281.3) (137.9) (147.6) (119.6) (14.1) Canada (Sep/Aug) 2014/15 est. 0.2 6.0 0.3 6.6 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 3.9 0.5 2015/16 f'cast 0.5 6.2 0.3 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.4 4.2 0.4 2016/17 proj. 0.4 5.7 0.3 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.2 3.8 0.4

Ukraine (Sep/Aug) 2014/15 est. 0.3 3.9 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.5 2.4 0.2 2015/16 f'cast 0.2 3.8 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.6 2.2 0.1 2016/17 proj. 0.1 4.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.1 (4.2) (4.3) (1.9) (2.0) Paraguay (Mar/Feb) 2015/16 est. 0.4 8.1 0.0 8.5 0.0 0.2 3.3 3.7 4.5 0.4 2016/17 f'cast 0.4 8.8 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.2 4.0 4.3 4.6 0.3 2017/18 proj. 0.3 8.9 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.2 4.0 4.3 4.6 0.4

China (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 12.0 12.2 80.1 104.3 10.3 2.5 77.0 90.3 0.0 14.0 2015/16 f'cast 12.0 11.6 84.0 107.6 11.3 2.4 82.8 96.9 0.2 12.4 2016/17 proj. 12.4 12.6 88.0 113.0 11.7 2.7 88.0 102.4 0.2 10.4

EU* (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 0.6 1.8 13.5 16.0 0.2 0.9 13.7 14.8 0.1 1.0 2015/16 f'cast 1.0 2.3 13.5 16.8 0.2 0.8 14.8 15.8 0.1 0.9 2016/17 proj. 0.9 2.3 13.3 16.5 0.2 0.9 14.3 15.3 0.1 1.0 (2.2) (13.0) (16.1) (13.9) (15.0) India (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 0.7 10.4 0.0 11.1 0.3 0.7 9.6 10.5 0.2 0.3 2015/16 f'cast 0.3 9.1 0.0 9.5 0.2 0.4 8.6 9.2 0.2 0.2 2016/17 proj. 0.2 11.4 0.0 11.6 0.4 0.6 10.2 11.2 0.2 0.2

Japan (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 0.2 0.2 3.1 3.5 0.8 0.2 2.3 3.3 0.0 0.2 2015/16 f'cast 0.2 0.2 3.3 3.7 0.8 0.2 2.5 3.5 0.0 0.2 2016/17 proj. 0.2 0.2 3.1 3.6 0.8 0.2 2.4 3.3 0.0 0.2

WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2014/15 est. 28.6 320.4 126.8 349.0 16.5 16.7 277.5 312.3 126.8 37.2 2015/16 f'cast 37.2 315.7 132.2 352.9 17.2 16.5 284.1 319.5 132.2 33.3 2016/17 proj. 33.3 325.4 135.9 358.7 18.0 17.0 290.9 327.2 135.9 31.5 (34.8) (321.3) (135.0) (356.1) (290.4) (326.6) (135.0) (29.5)

Table 28B SUPPLY & DEMAND: RAPESEED/CANOLA# Million tons Opening Production Imports Total Use Exports Closing stocks supply Food Feed Crush Total a) stocks

RAPESEED/CANOLA

Australia (Nov/Oct) 2014/15 est. 0.5 3.5 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.0 2.6 0.4 2015/16 f'cast 0.4 2.9 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.1 0.4 2016/17 proj. 0.4 3.2 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 2.4 0.3 (0.6) (0.7) (2.7) Canada (Aug/Jul) 2014/15 est. 2.9 16.4 0.1 19.4 0.0 0.5 7.4 8.0 9.1 2.3 2015/16 f'cast 2.3 17.2 0.1 19.7 0.0 0.2 8.3 8.5 10.3 0.9 2016/17 proj. 0.9 17.0 0.1 18.0 0.0 0.1 8.3 8.5 8.8 0.7 (1.4) (15.9) (17.4) (8.0) (8.2) (8.5) Ukraine (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 est. 0.0 2.2 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.9 0.0 2015/16 f'cast 0.0 1.7 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.0 2016/17 proj. 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.0 (1.3) (1.4) (0.4) (0.4) Total 3 major exporters d) 2014/15 est. 3.4 22.2 0.1 25.6 0.0 0.6 8.6 9.2 13.6 2.8 2015/16 f'cast 2.8 21.9 0.1 24.8 0.0 0.2 9.5 9.7 13.8 1.3 2016/17 proj. 1.3 21.4 0.1 22.8 0.0 0.1 9.4 9.6 12.2 1.0 (1.8) (20.5) (22.4) (9.0) (9.2) (12.1) EU* (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 est. 1.0 24.4 2.5 27.8 0.0 0.9 25.2 26.2 0.6 1.1 2015/16 f'cast 1.1 22.0 3.5 26.5 0.0 1.0 24.0 25.0 0.3 1.2 2016/17 proj. 1.2 20.2 3.0 24.3 0.0 0.7 22.3 23.0 0.4 1.0 (20.9) (25.1) (23.0) (23.7) Russia (Jul/Jun) 2014/15 est. 0.1 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 2015/16 f'cast 0.1 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.1 2016/17 proj. 0.1 1.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.1

USA (Jun/May) 2014/15 est. 0.1 1.1 0.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.8 0.2 0.1 2015/16 f'cast 0.1 1.3 0.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.1 2016/17 proj. 0.1 1.3 0.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.1

China (Jun/May) 2014/15 est. 0.9 14.8 4.5 20.2 0.0 0.7 18.6 19.3 0.0 0.9 2015/16 f'cast 0.9 14.9 4.4 20.1 0.0 0.7 18.2 18.9 0.0 1.2 2016/17 proj. 1.2 12.6 4.1 17.8 0.0 0.8 16.4 17.1 0.0 0.7 (4.0) (17.7) (16.3) (17.0) India (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 0.4 5.1 0.0 5.4 0.6 0.2 4.2 5.0 0.0 0.4 2015/16 f'cast 0.4 5.8 0.0 6.1 0.6 0.2 5.0 5.8 0.0 0.4 2016/17 proj. 0.4 6.5 0.0 6.9 0.6 0.2 5.7 6.5 0.0 0.4

Japan (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 0.1 0.0 2.4 2.5 0.0 0.0 2.4 2.4 0.0 0.1 2015/16 f'cast 0.1 0.0 2.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.1 2016/17 proj. 0.1 0.0 2.2 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.1 (2.3) (2.4) (2.3) (2.3) Mexico (Oct/Sep) 2014/15 est. 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 2015/16 f'cast 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 2016/17 proj. 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) WORLD TOTAL c) c) 2014/15 est. 6.1 71.4 14.1 77.5 0.6 2.6 68.5 71.8 14.1 5.7 2015/16 f'cast 5.7 68.9 13.9 74.5 0.6 2.3 67.1 70.0 13.9 4.5 2016/17 proj. 4.5 65.2 12.9 69.7 0.6 2.0 63.3 66.0 12.9 3.7 (5.0) (65.1) (12.8) (70.1) (63.8) (66.4) (12.8) # IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report. a) Including seed and waste. b) Argentina, Brazil, USA c) IGC October/September trade d) Australia, Canada, Ukraine Totals may not sum due to rounding Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

Table 29 PRICES: WEEKLY EXPORT QUOTATIONS (fob, nearest shipment position)

Table 30 FUTURES PRICES (Nearby Contract)

Table 30a HISTORICAL VOLATILITY (hv 20)*: SELECTED GRAINS AND OIILSEEDS

Table 31 OCEAN FREIGHT RATES: SELECTED ROUTES a)

GMR Supplementary Table A GRAIN SHIPMENTS: MONTHLY & QUARTERLY (main exporters) '000 tons

EXPORTS FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2016 2016 a) 5 weeks ARGENTINA All wheat 627 1,225 527 1,517 537 1,345 379 976 751 613 Barley 125 516 191 487 168 334 23 92 158 213 Maize 706 2,605 1,879 2,789 2,430 1,972 1,689 1,600 1,478 2,486 Sorghum 26 33 88 33 64 87 109 22 33 87 Total grains 1,483 4,380 2,685 4,826 3,200 3,739 2,200 2,691 2,419 3,399 AUSTRALIA All wheat 1,908 1,402 1,690 1,500 1,874 1,507 1,911 1,493 1,074 n/a Barley 499 538 887 381 446 599 464 458 530 n/a Sorghum 6 14 20 59 56 35 369 109 124 n/a Total grains 2,422 1,962 2,619 1,955 2,389 2,156 2,756 2,083 1,748 n/a a) 4 weeks CANADA All wheat 1,866 1,841 1,773 1,726 1,952 1,918 2,506 1,744 1,530 1,656 Barley 99 152 65 102 166 129 172 78 26 11 Oats 122 90 179 161 153 97 90 75 150 64 Total grains 2,104 2,169 2,037 2,104 2,291 2,395 2,783 2,118 2,017 1,963 a) 5 weeks EU * All wheat 3,800 3,084 4,229 3,724 3,780 3,652 2,264 3,579 3,052 2,835 Barley 1,153 1,030 951 948 619 874 974 531 861 831 Maize 291 105 367 119 402 144 489 216 259 150 Oats81073276312527 Rye1150312732558 Total grains 5,252 4,230 5,603 4,797 4,828 4,704 3,734 4,363 4,181 3,850 a) 4 weeks USA All wheat 1,784 1,523 2,010 1,771 1,823 1,817 1,823 1,778 2,368 1,830 Barley 33 18 45 7 11 3 29 5 10 3 Maize 4,014 3,319 3,940 4,351 4,855 5,116 4,844 4,792 6,108 5,002 Sorghum 923 585 1,153 869 878 718 545 273 462 404 Total grains 6,756 5,445 7,150 7,001 7,569 7,656 7,242 6,852 8,948 7,238 RUSSIA All wheat 406 2,297 584 1,840 499 1,586 729 1,430 988 n/a Barley 404 257 725 302 414 208 303 123 12 n/a Total grains 1,086 3,245 1,748 2,822 1,327 2,472 1,315 1,995 1,199 n/a UKRAINE All wheat 676 892 525 1,095 517 1,345 427 1,449 1,338 n/a Barley 78 24 207 76 97 156 111 112 100 n/a Maize 2,217 2,370 1,837 2,428 1,964 2,067 1,939 1,002 920 n/a Total grains 3,002 3,317 2,583 3,621 2,591 3,575 2,505 2,568 2,384 n/a KAZAKHSTAN ** All wheat 412 626 393 664 482 686 471 625 - n/a Barley 36 140 42 28 16 8 6 7 - n/a Total grains 449 771 438 694 504 697 482 633 - n/a '000 tons CALENDAR YEAR IGC YEAR EXPORTS JUL/SEP OCT/DEC JAN/MAR JAN/JUN JUL/JUN 2014 2015 2014 2015 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014/15 2015/16 ARGENTINA All wheat 455 1,203 523 668 1,705 3,733 3,116 6,806 4,093 8,676 Barley 224 222 276 219 834 1,621 1,101 2,205 1,601 2,647 Maize 6,307 4,889 3,720 2,010 3,450 6,587 9,821 11,638 19,848 18,536 Sorghum 470 202 310 397 270 103 444 245 1,223 843 Total grains 7,455 6,516 4,828 3,293 6,259 12,044 14,481 20,893 26,765 30,702 AUSTRALIA All wheat 3,811 3,834 2,983 3,498 4,695 4,420 9,781 8,494 16,575 15,825 Barley b) 1,133 936 1,100 1,025 2,098 1,328 3,224 2,915 5,458 4,876 Sorghum 140 696 124 24 59 74 933 342 1,197 1,062 Total grains 5,145 5,525 4,261 4,591 6,903 5,861 14,046 11,847 23,452 21,963 CANADA All wheat 7,284 5,388 5,490 6,105 5,353 5,184 12,143 10,375 24,917 21,868 Barley 298 176 584 392 283 432 830 666 1,712 1,234 Oats 427 404 451 442 476 387 844 710 1,722 1,556 Total grains 8,485 6,140 6,661 7,233 6,167 6,290 13,941 12,820 29,087 26,193 EU * All wheat 7,268 6,052 8,664 7,852 10,461 9,618 18,513 19,901 34,445 33,805 Barley 2,550 3,645 2,151 2,090 2,671 2,753 4,832 5,019 9,533 10,754 Maize 347 573 1,029 475 937 314 2,322 933 3,698 1,981 Oats 20 32 113 132 27 18 84 41 218 204 Rye 45 27 80 69 52 5 57 62 182 158 Total grains 10,246 10,330 12,037 10,618 14,149 12,708 25,809 25,956 48,092 46,904 USA All wheat 7,339 6,385 4,626 4,468 5,313 4,820 10,616 10,783 22,581 21,636 Barley 92 61 59 90 101 43 172 61 323 212 Maize 12,855 12,464 9,258 6,982 11,195 10,375 25,120 26,391 47,233 45,836 Sorghum 2,463 2,648 2,028 2,638 2,854 2,212 4,460 3,665 8,951 8,951 Total grains 22,759 21,565 15,973 14,184 19,468 17,455 40,378 40,911 79,109 76,659 RUSSIA All wheat 9,984 7,910 6,708 7,991 3,072 5,476 5,524 9,479 22,216 25,380 Barley 1,303 1,771 1,955 1,449 1,216 682 2,033 1,025 5,291 4,245 Total grains 11,620 10,198 9,499 10,788 5,144 7,813 9,429 13,479 30,548 34,464 UKRAINE All wheat 4,570 5,603 3,515 5,172 1,772 2,482 3,111 6,615 11,196 17,389 Barley 3,012 2,911 711 1,008 509 122 720 490 4,443 4,408 Maize 608 1,312 6,020 5,569 5,948 6,473 11,567 10,462 18,196 17,343 Total grains 8,203 9,837 10,289 11,817 8,317 9,137 15,550 17,664 34,042 39,318 KAZAKHSTAN ** All wheat 1,280 1,319 1,924 2,099 1,205 1,880 2,702 3,192 5,907 6,610 Barley 94 87 245 393 112 317 144 331 483 810 Total grains 1,377 1,409 2,178 2,497 1,324 2,208 2,867 3,538 6,421 7,444 T Less than half the unit shown n/a Not available a) Based on weekly shipment reports, Covering 4 or 5 weeks (as stated). b) Destinations up to Dec 2015. Bulk only from Jan 2016 ** June 2016 data unavailable

GMR Supplementary Table B1 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: ALL WHEAT (incl. DURUM) (major exporters)* '000 tons ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA CANADA EU a)* KAZAKHSTAN RUSSIA UKRAINE USA IMPORTERS Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/May Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 EUROPE 110 92 161 92 2,081 2,761 1,074 1,124 131 120 1,208 891 2,070 1,485 877 697 Albania ------15 46 - - 165 183 5 - - - EU * 110 92 161 92 2,080 2,760 - - 125 120 913 654 2,020 1,480 877 697 Norway ------299 363 6 - 29 16 T - - - Romania ------48 - 28 - - - Switzerland T T - - - - 372 325 - - 101 38 45 3 - - Others T T - - T T 388 390 T - T T T 2 T T CIS ------16 14 4,191 4,020 1,921 2,735 55 108 T T Armenia ------T T - - 154 215 - 2 - - Azerbaijan ------T T 86 188 1,083 1,353 1 3 - - Georgia ------T T 3 5 531 662 5 42 T - Kirghizstan ------T 32 473 9 6 - - - T Russia ------10 9 550 363 - - - 1 T T Tadjikistan ------T T 996 937 16 12 - - - - Ukraine ------2 1 1 T 1 1 - - T T Uzbekistan ------2,475 1,998 11 8 - T - - Other CIS ------3 4 50 56 116 479 50 61 - - N & C AMERICA 120 23 T T 3,559 4,619 1,214 784 5 - 545 541 335 130 5,060 5,504 Cuba - T - - 235 229 574 625 - - T - - - - - Mexico - - - - 780 974 503 25 - - 389 406 288 116 2,739 3,067 USA 117 19 T T 2,111 3,147 94 99 5 - 1 T 6 T 11 - Others/unspec. 3 4 T T 433 269 44 35 - - 155 135 42 14 2,310 2,437 SOUTH AMERICA 4,594 3,644 - - 3,938 4,380 27 19 - - 158 180 10 - 2,348 3,399 Bolivia 269 179 - - - 32 T T ------5 Brazil 4,015 3,214 - - 28 211 7 4 ------443 1,296 Chile 224 151 - - 344 504 2 T - - - - T - 227 229 Colombia 45 19 - - 982 943 T T ------772 574 Ecuador 31 11 - - 559 545 2 - - - 15 - 10 - 314 372 Peru - 8 - - 1,292 1,120 T T - - 144 180 - - 275 455 Venezuela - 50 - - 713 976 - T ------307 401 Others/unspec. 11 12 - - 21 50 15 14 ------8 65 NEAR EAST ASIA - 67 1,971 2,113 996 1,765 7,730 8,597 352 270 7,566 8,729 1,617 1,629 868 650 Iran - - 102 269 - 134 1,310 2,574 276 253 1,485 1,722 34 66 - - Iraq - - 53 155 200 250 T T T - T 120 3 T - 155 Israel - - - - T - 349 373 - - 388 436 636 513 160 79 Jordan - - - - T T 773 708 - - 389 378 54 53 143 T Kuwait - - 403 381 63 33 3 2 - - 10 - T - T T Muscat & Oman - - 147 152 127 90 270 154 - - 241 230 67 - T - Syria ------116 284 - - 58 43 355 149 - - Turkey - - - - 140 110 743 758 74 17 3,096 4,225 112 292 - T Yemen - - 915 928 - - 649 887 - - 849 831 T 170 563 357 Others/unspec. - 67 352 229 466 1,147 3,517 2,857 1 - 1,049 744 355 387 3 58 FAR EAST ASIA 3,375 89 11,793 11,711 7,376 7,181 1,914 2,903 1,930 953 2,091 1,024 8,031 3,111 9,868 9,747 Pacific Asia 3,259 2 11,279 11,214 5,374 5,312 1,854 2,286 279 92 623 460 6,561 2,009 9,710 9,573 China - - 1,366 930 1,016 607 2 7 268 87 51 23 117 86 609 326 Indonesia 1,241 - 3,647 4,377 1,566 1,596 571 55 - - 234 225 1,773 243 797 559 Japan - - 905 904 1,853 1,638 111 101 - - 10 1 156 21 2,562 2,940 Korea (N) ------T T - - 1 46 165 52 - - Korea (S) 489 T 1,223 1,048 195 240 236 767 - - 85 36 1,046 584 1,116 1,160 Malaysia 8 - 835 906 243 209 48 4 - - 44 17 190 75 188 196 Philippines 235 2 818 712 139 525 76 330 - - - 52 753 450 2,301 2,268 Singapore - - 126 96 25 6 2 1 - - T T 66 - 42 82 Taipei, Chinese 1 - 206 240 13 13 4 7 - - - - 7 9 1,181 1,046 Thailand 752 - 414 467 150 272 440 904 - - 7 3 2,204 479 674 663 Vietnam 534 - 1,326 1,263 173 202 356 107 - - T 17 59 2 218 316 Others T - 414 271 2 4 8 2 11 5 191 39 25 7 22 17 South Asia 116 87 514 496 2,002 1,869 60 617 1,651 861 1,468 564 1,470 1,101 158 174 Bangladesh 116 87 190 151 1,392 1,191 T 616 - - 1,205 195 1,417 596 87 1 India - - 234 249 62 - T T - - - - 52 3 - - Pakistan - - T - 30 - T T - - - 210 - 503 7 11 Sri Lanka - - 90 96 518 678 59 T - - 262 159 - - 64 132 Others - - - - - 1 1 1 1,651 861 1 - T - - 30 AFRICA 477 178 946 1,691 3,919 4,210 21,804 20,983 - - 11,892 8,117 5,270 4,728 2,613 2,581 North Africa 344 - 288 427 1,794 1,665 13,753 14,575 - - 6,800 4,055 4,071 3,647 237 313 Algeria - - - - 920 983 6,483 5,704 - - - - 106 22 69 135 Egypt 189 - 288 427 8 56 2,677 4,363 - - 6,226 3,618 2,628 2,444 99 156 Libya ------657 811 - - 374 281 218 262 - - Morocco 144 - - - 582 591 507 2,728 - - 119 143 552 463 20 10 Tunisia 11 - - - 283 34 970 968 - - 80 13 567 455 49 12 Sub Sahara 132 178 657 1,264 2,125 2,545 8,050 6,409 - - 5,092 4,062 1,200 1,081 2,376 2,267 Cameroon - - - - 161 88 477 384 - - 6 6 T - - 19 Congo Dem. Rep. - - - 12 15 - 219 140 - - 140 172 - - - 27 Ethiopia - - 2 - - - 711 409 - - 315 35 573 239 458 170 Nigeria 58 42 448 436 634 846 547 412 - - 1,205 721 30 10 1,410 1,849 Somalia ------16 T - - - 1 10 T - - South Africa 58 65 44 108 166 110 584 530 - - 1,099 628 157 312 230 33 Sudan - - - 296 110 586 379 627 - - 672 792 - - - - Others/unspec. 16 71 163 411 1,039 915 5,117 3,907 - - 1,656 1,708 429 521 277 169 OCEANIA 1 - 954 968 1 1 25 21 - - T T - T 1 4 New Zealand 1 - 473 522 - - 1 1 - - T T - - T 1 Others/unspec. - - 481 446 1 1 24 20 - - T T - T 1 3 UNSPECIFIED------TT----1 6 - - WORLD TOTAL 8,676 4,093 15,825 16,575 21,868 24,917 33,805 34,445 6,610 5,363 25,380 22,216 17,389 11,196 21,636 22,581 T Less than half the unit shown a) Includes "PST" (processed secondary trade) GMR Supplementary Table B2 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: DURUM WHEAT (incl. SEMOLINA) (major exporters) '000 tons CANADA EU a)* USA b) IMPORTERS Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 EUROPE 1,441 2,060 34 25 284 372 EU * 1,441 2,060 - - 284 372 Others - - 34 25 T - CIS - - 3 1 T - Russia - - 1 T - - Others - - 1 1 T - N & C AMERICA 373 916 14 12 53 47 Cuba 17 21 8 10 - - USA 317 865 2 1 - - SOUTH AMERICA 267 604 3 1 21 115 Brazil - - 1 1 - - Chile 11 39 T T - 36 Peru 102 155 T - - - Venezuela 118 354 - T - 53 NEAR EAST 208 172 174 262 50 48 Turkey 80 83 70 181 - - FAR EAST 250 214 1 1 25 9 Pacific Asia 250 214 1 1 25 9 Indonesia 53 10 T T T - Japan 197 203 T T 1 2 South Asia - - T T - - India - - T T - - AFRICA 1,816 1,713 1,134 903 183 182 North Africa 1,779 1,609 832 726 129 147 Algeria 920 983 153 172 69 135 Libya - - 1 T - - Morocco 576 591 219 42 10 - Tunisia 283 34 442 488 49 12 Sub Sahara 38 104 302 177 54 35 OCEANIA --3 2 - T UNSPECIFIED ------WORLD TOTAL 4,354 5,680 1,365 1,207 616 773 T Less than half the unit shown a) Includes "PST" (processed secondary trade) b) May include some non-durum wheat GMR Supplementary Table B3 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: MAIZE (CORN) (major exporters) '000 tons ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHINA RUSSIA UKRAINE USA IMPORTERS Jul/Jun Jul Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 2016/17 2015/16 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 EUROPE 394 338 149 103 - T 1,365 207 8,576 5,556 454 638 EU * 392 336 149 103 - T 1,304 205 8,536 5,547 453 638 Portugal 1 1 T - - - - - 898 476 192 69 Spain 58 38 26 70 - - 40 46 2,729 2,241 68 383 CIS 2 2 T - T T 233 279 16 114 4 3 Russia 1 1 T - T T - - - 1 3 3 Other CIS 1 1 - - - - 233 279 16 113 1 T N&C AMERICA 1,077 976 55 56 1 T 11 - 2 2 18,459 16,335 Canada T T - - - T - - 2 T 1,032 1,382 Costa Rica 1 1 ------541 738 Dominican Rep 203 163 - 56 - - 11 - - - 281 649 El Salvador 1 T - T ------669 532 GuatemalaTT------922 766 Jamaica 2 ------277 282 Mexico 83 7 ------13,365 10,821 Panama 1 T ------T 2 403 407 Others 787 804 55 T 1 - - - T - 968 757 SOUTH AMERICA 1,653 1,808 1 1 ------8,150 7,362 Brazil 427 2 ------T T Chile 327 459 T T ------224 80 Colombia 12 85 ------4,582 4,148 Ecuador 8 8 ------T 27 Peru 393 294 T 1 ------2,260 2,447 Venezuela 483 957 ------1,045 635 Others 3 2 T T ------37 24 N. E. ASIA 2,263 2,730 436 211 - - 1,762 1,670 1,805 2,498 1,472 1,564 Iran T - 420 209 - - 215 271 650 1,015 - 138 Israel TT------743 836 140 124 Jordan 410 472 - T - - - - T - 29 80 Saudi Arabia 965 1,148 -T-----30 1,296 1,151 Syria 4 5 - - - - 109 11 99 210 - - Turkey 7 11 T - - - 1,048 1,335 24 44 1 13 Others 877 1,094 16 2 - - 390 53 290 362 6 59 F. E. ASIA 5,965 6,660 201 443 4 21 1,112 596 3,386 5,615 15,414 19,229 Pacific Asia 5,913 6,645 201 441 4 21 1,112 596 3,146 5,615 15,313 19,196 China T T - T - - 84 83 2,794 3,393 415 524 Indonesia 751 1,994 - 58 - - - - T - 155 59 Japan 77 96 - 10 - - 13 - T 427 10,066 12,132 Korea (S) 1,882 481 65 69 T T 1,006 513 66 1,774 2,557 4,668 Malaysia 1,219 1,851 22 60 - - - - - T 50 13 Philippines 82 154 ------54 110 Taipei, Chinese T 1 - 83 - - - - - 21 1,689 1,642 Others 1,901 2,069 114 161 4 20 8 T 285 T 327 47 South Asia 52 14 T 2 ----241 - 102 33 Bangladesh------100 - Others 52 14 T 2 - - - - 241 - 2 33 AFRICA 7,183 7,235 203 466 - - 253 115 3,557 4,395 1,800 2,009 North Africa 5,579 6,634 202 466 - - 189 66 3,418 4,374 1,659 1,981 Algeria 2,346 3,495 76 46 - - 57 28 110 181 346 239 Egypt 2,262 1,765 126 361 - - - - 2,256 3,084 887 1,357 Morocco 910 1,216 - 24 - - - - 33 - 272 385 Tunisia 60 98 - 35 - - 11 11 680 713 153 - Sub-Sahara 1,604 601 1 T --64 49 139 21 142 28 South Africa 1,234 206 1 - - - - - 71 - 109 1 OCEANIA T1 ------84 92 UNSPECIFIED - 100 - - - - - 1 T 15 - - WORLD TOTAL 18,536 19,848 1,046 1,280 5 21 4,735 2,869 17,343 18,196 45,836 47,233 T Less than half the unit shown GMR Supplementary Table B4 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: BARLEY (major exporters) '000 tons ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA b) CANADA EU a)* RUSSIA UKRAINE USA IMPORTERS Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 EUROPE T-T---79 105 101 155 231 63 1 1 EU * T-T-----101 150 231 63 1 1 Switzerland------30 67 - - T T - - CIS ------29 35 12 156 7 2 - - Georgia ------T3 T T - - Kazakhstan------T3 2 ---- Russia ------20 23 ------Ukraine ------TTT----- Other CIS------9 12 9 150 7 2 - - N&C AMERICA 1 1 - - 376 447 252 175 ----174 164 USA T 1 - - 376 447 32 59 ------S. AMERICA 834 880 - 10 - 29 135 266 ----T- Brazil 445 427 ----13 17 ----T- Colombia 199 76 - - - 24 51 144 ------N. E. ASIA 1,763 381 666 221 66 - 5,360 4,034 3,563 4,440 2,615 3,735 5 2 Iran - 35 ----413 422 479 874 - 307 - - Israel ------116 51 64 74 86 120 1 - Jordan - 50 ----509 417 201 370 86 51 - - Kuwait - 72 44 44 - - 44 113 195 144 - 36 - - Saudi Arabia 1,633 65 525 - 66 - 4,032 2,600 2,375 2,685 2,326 2,800 - - UAE 97 119 76 143 - - 135 52 78 68 26 7 1 - F. E. ASIA 4 97 1,268 5,088 792 1,237 2,703 3,393 45 18 863 286 18 128 Pacific Asia 3 97 1,263 5,085 792 1,237 2,700 3,392 45 18 834 286 14 126 China 1 94 1,061 4,552 726 995 2,485 2,982 - - 647 251 - - Japan - - 137 406 67 242 169 386 44 6 187 33 6 87 Korea (S) - - 19 41 - - 13 T - 11 - - 3 4 Taipei, Chinese 2 3 20 31 - - - T - - - 1 6 31 South Asia 1 - 5 3 - - 3 1 - - 29 T 4 2 AFRICA 45 242 27 97 - - 2,195 1,524 524 523 692 358 14 27 North Africa 45 242 ----2,141 1,478 524 523 653 358 14 27 Algeria - 52 ----577 617 109 137 151 60 - - Libya ------493 437 161 194 446 223 - - Morocco 17 162 ----745 196 16 11 25 - 14 27 Tunisia 28 28 ----325 189 180 157 28 55 - - Sub-Sahara - - 27 97 - - 55 46 - - 39 - - - South Africa - - 27 97 - - 8 T - - 39 - - - OCEANIA/UNSP. - - 2,916 43 - - 1 T----T- WORLD TOTAL 2,647 1,601 4,876 5,458 1,234 1,712 10,754 9,533 4,245 5,291 4,408 4,443 212 323 T Less than half the unit shown a) Includes "PST" (processed secondary trade) b) Destinations up to Dec 2015. Bulk only from Jan 2016

GMR Supplementary Table B5 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: MALT (major exporters) '000 tons (grain equivalent) ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA CANADA EU a)* USA IMPORTERS Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 Russia ------8787-- Mexico - - - - 107 77 67 22 340 375 USA - - - T 403 415 145 125 - - Brazil 622 545 - - 2 1 186 183 1 T Venezuela 13 23 - - 6 - 168 195 - - Japan - - 94 90 205 195 340 349 10 15 Korea (S) - - 128 191 25 55 75 54 T T Philippines - - 36 14 - - 50 58 - T Thailand - - 120 160 - - 116 75 T - Vietnam - - 148 153 - - 327 262 - - Cameroon ------97 106 - - Nigeria ------195 178 - - South Africa - - 1 49 - - 121 90 - - Others 127 184 92 81 48 36 1,582 1,588 95 117 WORLD TOTAL 762 753 620 738 797 778 3,557 3,372 446 507 T Less than half the unit shown a) Includes "PST" (processed secondary trade)

GMR Supplementary Table B6 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: SORGHUM (major exporters) '000 tons ARGENTINA AUSTRALIA USA IMPORTERS Jul/Jun Jul/Jun Jul/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 EU * TTTT9 - Mexico T - - - 498 11 Brazil TT---- Chile 106 146 - - - 1 Israel - - T T - - Japan 600 789 1 1 68 74 Morocco ------Others 136 287 1,060 1,195 8,376 8,865 WORLD TOTAL 843 1,223 1,062 1,197 8,951 8,951 T Less than half the unit shown

GMR Supplementary Table B7 USA: OATS IMPORTS BY ORIGIN (major exporters)

metric tons

EXPORTERS Jul/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 Canada 1,362 1,687 EU * 96 119 Finland 34 44 Sweden 62 72 EU others T 4 Russia - - Others T 4 TOTAL 1,458 1,810 T Less than half the unit shown Source: US official trade statistics GMR Supplementary Table C1 EU: EXPORT/IMPORT LICENCES ISSUED FOR 2015/16 * (at 16 August 2016) '000 tons EXPORTS IMPORTS CUMULATIVE Current Year % change w/e Current Year % change w/e Year ** Ago ** y/y 16 Aug Year ** Ago ** y/y 16 Aug

Common wheat 3,567 2,870 + 24 538 279 309 - 9 42 Flour (grain equiv.) 181 141 + 29 22 4 4 + 3 1 Total common wheat 3,748 3,011 + 24 560 284 313 - 9 42 Durum 181 107 + 69 37 187 188 - 1 13 Semolina (grain equiv.) ------Total Durum 181 107 + 69 37 187 188 - 1 13 ALL WHEAT 3,929 3,118 + 26 597 470 501 - 6 55

Barley 895 2,234 - 60 14 199 170 + 17 3 Malt (grain equiv.) ------BARLEY 895 2,234 - 60 14 199 170 + 17 3

MAIZE 165 249 - 34 13 1,136 1,087 + 4 141

Rye 8 26 - 69 T - - - - Rye flour (grain equiv.) ------RYE 8 26 - 69 T - - - -

OATS 29 11 + 148 1 - - - -

SORGHUM - - - - 1 1 - 26 T

OTHER ------

GRAND TOTAL 5,026 5,638 - 11 625 1,807 1,760 + 3 199

* Total of 2016/17 licences issued under "free market" tenders, standing restitutions and for intervention stocks ** Cumulative of 7 weeks a) Malt licences no longer issued T less than 500 t. - nothing or no data Because of rounding, totals may not add

GMR Supplementary Table C2 EU IMPORT DUTIES (at 8 November 2014) WHEAT WHEAT WHEAT DURUM DURUMDURUM MAIZE BARLEY RYE SORGHUM DATE (High quality) (Medium quality) (Low quality) (High quality) (Medium quality) (Low quality) (CORN) €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* €uro US$* 16.08.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.01 5.15 0.00 (1) 0.00 21.76 27.95 21.76 27.95 17.08.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 11.51 14.81 11.51 14.81 01.09.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 10.69 13.70 10.69 13.70 16.09.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 7.00 9.12 7.00 9.12 01.10.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 8.84 12.35 8.84 12.35 12.10.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 14.39 20.29 14.39 20.29 19.10.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.09.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.44 13.41 0.00 (1) 0.00 10.44 13.41 10.44 13.41 04.11.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.49 5.64 0.00 (1) 0.00 4.49 5.64 4.49 5.64 08.11.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 * At nominal agricultural market exchange rates. 1) Non-quota

GMR Supplementary Table C3 EU TARIFF RATE QUOTAS (TRQ): IMPORT LICENCES ISSUED

2016 TRQ Re-attrib. week week week week week week week week week REMAINING METRIC WITHIN ending ending ending ending ending ending ending ending ending as at 12.08.16 TONS DUTY 17.06.16 24.06.16 01.07.16 08.07.16 15.07.16 22.07.16 29.07.16 05.08.16 12.08.16 Jul/Sep Calendar tranche 2016 WHEAT 3,112,030 €12*** 2,529 3,495 6,070 3,865 17,868 2,125 31,377 9,970 5,335 2,904,737 (OTHER THAN HIGH QUALITY) Sub quotas: IUSA 572,000 ------572,000 II Canada 38,853 - - - 27 - - - - - 38,826 III Other 2,378,387 * 2,529 3,495 6,070 3,838 17,868 2,125 31,377 9,970 5,335 1,576,626 2,171,222 IV Non-EU 122,790 ------122,689 BARLEY 307,105 €16*** ------301,305

Jul/Dec Calendar tranche 2016 MAIZE 277,988 ** - - 16,090 ------123,905 123,905 * Divided into four quarterly tranches of 594,597 t. ** Divided into two six-monthly tranches of 138,994 t. *** On 30 May 2013, the EU's Cereals Management Committee did not extend the suspension of import duties for low/medium quality wheat and feed barley beyond 30 June 2013. The suspension has been in place since 28 February 2011 Effective from 1 July 2013, the import duties for low/medium quality wheat and feed barley are re-introduced. a) Currently unavailable

GMR Supplementary Table D1 CHINA: GRAIN PRODUCTION Million tons GRAIN 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 Wheat 121.9 126.2 130.2 126.0 126.0 Maize (Corn) 218.5 215.6 224.6 219.0 219.0 Barley 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 Sorghum 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 < Other 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 SUB-TOTAL 348.5 350.2 363.5 353.7 353.9 < RICE a) 203.6 206.5 208.3 209.3 209.1 < OTHER b) 50.9 53.3 43.2 52.0 52.0 TOTAL 603.0 c) 610.0 c) 615.0 615.0 615.0 a) On paddy basis b) Official definition includes potatoes (in grain equivalent), oilseeds and pulses c) Official data. Estimates for individual grains do not necessarily add GMR Supplementary Table D2 CHINA: GRAIN TRADE (July/June) Million tons GRAIN 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (f'cast) (est.) 28.07.16 25.08.16 IMPORTS Wheat 6.7 2.1 3.5 3.2 3.5 < Maize (Corn) 3.9 5.1 3.9 2.0 2.0 Barley 4.3 8.9 7.4 5.0 4.9 < Other 3.4 9.8 8.8 5.2 5.7 < TOTAL GRAINS (EXCL. RICE) 18.3 25.9 23.6 15.4 16.1 < EXPORTS Wheat 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 Maize (corn) 0.1 T T T T Sorghum T T T T T T Less than half the unit shown GMR Supplementary Table D3 CHINA: PURCHASES AND IMPORTS* IN 2015/16(July/June) Million tons WHEAT BARLEY 2013/14 2014/152015/16 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 SOURCE Imports Imports Imports Purchases Imports Imports Imports Purchases (f'cast) a) (f'cast) a) Argentina - - - T 0.1 T Australia 1.5 0.9 1.4 3.7 4.6 2.7 Canada 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 EU * 0.2 T T 0.1 3.0 2.5 USA 4.0 0.3 0.6 - - - Others 0.4 0.3 0.5 T 0.3 0.6 TOTAL 6.7 2.1 3.5 3.5 4.3 8.9 7.4 6.5 T Less than half the unit shown ** Based on exporter data a) As reported or estimated by IGC. Includes any outstanding quantities shipped or to be shipped in 2015/16 under sales made in the previous year, but excludes any sales for shipment after June 2016. GMR Supplementary Table D4 CHINA: IMPORTS AND EXPORTS (China General Administration of Customs) '000 tons IMPORTS EXPORTS EXPORTERSWHEAT a) BARLEY IMPORTERS WHEAT a) BARLEY Apr May Jun Apr May Jun Apr May Jun Apr May Jun Argentina ------Indonesia ------Australia 148 169 218 200 380 370 Iran ------Canada 64 78 167 45 71 66 Japan ------EU * ---3 62 46 Korea (N) -----T France ---3 62 45 Korea (S) -----T Germany ------Malaysia ------USA 38 148 64 - - - Philippines ------Myanmar ------Vietnam ------Others 53 44 28 - - - Others ---T-- TOTAL 302 439 478 248 513 482 TOTAL - - - T - T T Less than half the unit shown a) Not including flour GMR Supplementary Table E CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: RICE (major exporters) '000 tons (milled basis) BRAZIL CHINA INDIA THAILAND URUGUAY USA IMPORTERS Jan/Jul Jan/Jun Jan/May Jan/JunJan/May Jan/Jun

2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015

EUROPE 32 34 T T 190 189 169 144 23 15 23 27 EU* 11 13 T T 185 186 158 131 23 15 21 26

N & C AMERICA 151 121 1 1 88 81 278 278 48 33 838 815 Canada 1 1 T T 18 18 42 42 T T 102 107 Cuba 30 83 - - - T - - - T - - Haiti - - - - 2 2 T - - T 215 192 Mexico T - - - T 1 2 6 34 23 297 306 USA 34 9 T - 67 T 231 T T 12 - T Others 86 - - 1 1 59 3 230 13 T 223 209

SOUTH AMERICA 103 59 - - T - - - - - T - Brazil -- -- T T -T -12 T T Others 103 - - - T T - T - T T T

NEAR EAST ASIA 5 51 T 1 1,810 2,119 169 315 36 63 216 283 Iran -- --342 433 2 2 - - - - Iraq T42 - - 154 196 T 100 35 61 93 31 Saudi Arabia 5 7 - - 19 675 2 38 - - T 68 UAE TT - - 15 270 27 15 1 T 11 3 Others T-T1 1,280 545 138 159 T 1 111 180

FAR EAST ASIA T-108 104 332 939 1,795 1,450 - T 302 230 Bangladesh --TT19 361 T T - - T - China -- -- - T466 361 - T - - Indonesia - - 1 T 1 16 335 84 - - - T Japan - - 25 24 T T 154 158 - - 185 120 Korea (South) --55 48 5 T 7 3 - - 71 68 Malaysia - - - T 20 25 308 156 - - 1 T Philippines - - 3 3 1 1 148 422 - - - - Others T - 24 27 285 536 377 266 - - 44 43

AFRICA 180 145 7 T 1,844 1,619 2,427 2,159 32 36 99 56 Sub-Sahara 179 144 7 T 1,768 1,586 2,401 2,152 32 36 64 24 Benin 1 1 - - 294 111 540 176 - 4 6 8 Cameroon T - T T 42 55 298 191 - - 15 5 Côte d’Ivoire T - - - 153 129 411 217 - - 4 - Ghana - - - - 28 20 109 42 - - - 1 Mozambique T T - - 5 15 141 161 - - - - Nigeria T 11 - - 2 74 47 475 - - - T Senegal 117 56 - - 322 354 101 136 10 - - - South Africa 2 4 T - 119 129 283 270 T T T 1 Others 59 - 7 T 879 731 496 490 21 31 73 41

OCEANIA T-TT17 16 106 76 - - 19 23

OTHERS & UNSPEC. T - 1 2 67 68 49 26 175 117 156 272

WORLD TOTAL 471 410 118 108 4,344 5,031 4,981 4,447 314 264 1,650 1,706

T Indicates that figure is less than half the unit shown. GMR Supplementary Table F1 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: SOYABEANS (major exporters) '000 tons ARGENTINA BRAZIL UKRAINE USA IMPORTERS Oct/Jun Oct/Jul Oct/Jun Oct/Jun 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15

EUROPE 60 29 5,487 4,941 281 511 4,052 3,857 EU* 60 29 5,250 4,722 281 511 4,052 3,470

N & C AMERICA 67 45 130 9 - - 3,270 3,262 Canada T T - - - - 220 223 Mexico - - 129 - - - 2,726 2,738 Others 67 45 T 9 - - 325 302

SOUTH AMERICA 102 224 2 3 - - 546 583 Chile 64 77 - - - - T T Colombia ------369 432 Peru T29 - T - - 104 103 Others 38 118 2 3 - - 72 49

NEAR EAST ASIA 43 278 1,537 1,086 1,194 1,461 656 1,184 Iran 37 234 815 572 195 486 124 - Israel --61 99 61 65 58 86 Turkey 6 - 281 96 789 767 299 818 Others -43 381 319 150 143 174 280

FAR EAST ASIA 5 ,677 5,653 41,079 34,642 6 14 33,854 36,287 Indonesia -2 - 4 - - 1,784 1,659 China 5,510 5,523 36,758 31,526 4 - 26,389 28,622 Japan T T 428 256 T 1 1,857 1,716 Korea (S) - - 533 582 - - 431 587 Malaysia 12 28 80 62 - 9 234 293 Taipei, Chinese T T 760 494 - - 1,284 1,331 Thailand 71 9 1,556 1,230 - - 456 586 Others 84 90 966 488 2 5 1,419 1,494

AFRICA 359 244 74 710 549 227 635 742 Egypt 344 202 40 496 531 213 315 455 Others 15 42 34 214 17 14 320 287

OCEANIA ------

OTHERS & UNSPEC. T T 815 354 80 17 520 267

WORLD TOTAL 6,307 6,473 49,123 41,745 2,111 2,232 43,533 46,182

T Indicates that figure is less than half the unit shown.

GMR Supplementary Table F2 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: SOYAMEAL (major exporters) '000 tons ARGENTINA BRAZIL INDIA USA IMPORTERS Oct/Jun Oct/Jul Oct/May Oct/Jun

2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15

EUROPE 7,214 5,985 7,256 7,276 12 205 312 1,126 EU* 7,214 5,985 7,256 7,276 9 205 312 1,126

N & C AMERICA 118 171 3 74 21 5 3,744 3,354 Canada - - T T 2 1 574 654 Mexico --TT --1 ,712 1,328 Others 118 171 2 73 18 4 1,458 1,372

SOUTH AMERICA 522 419 81 58 T T 1,221 1,733 Chile 123 141 52 57 - T T 1 Colombia --TT --521 663 Peru -66 T 1 T - 158 184 Others 399 212 28 T - - 542 886

NEAR EAST ASIA 2 ,041 1,912 717 802 18 287 157 317 Iran 579 793 468 458 2 196 - 65 Saudi Arabia 353 253 59 114 T 11 46 64 Syria 17 181 ------Others 1 ,092 686 189 229 16 80 111 188

FAR EAST ASIA 7 ,091 6,394 5,278 3,995 119 726 2,640 2,872 Indonesia 1 ,512 1,330 1,814 1,656 4 9 24 98 Japan --193 102 21 46 89 173 Korea (S) 423 534 1,266 743 10 10 10 3 Philippines 613 359 16 9 1 2 1,434 1,234 Thailand 358 723 1,320 1,003 10 9 551 677 Vietnam 2,906 2,180 347 295 6 12 137 445 Others 1,280 1,269 322 188 69 638 395 242

AFRICA 3 ,488 2,006 9 102 26 21 318 341 Algeria 1,035 649 - 51 - - 22 14 Egypt1 ,499 440 1 14 T T 176 123 South Africa 386 353 - T T T T T Others 568 564 8 37 26 21 119 204

OCEANIA 607 656 5 5 2 2 18 22

OTHERS & UNSPEC. 35 49 51 30 T 6 1 1

WORLD TOTAL 21,116 17,592 13,399 12,342 198 1,252 8,410 9,768

T Indicates that figure is less than half the unit shown

GMR Supplementary Table F3 CUMULATIVE SHIPMENTS BY DESTINATION: RAPESEED/CANOLA (major exporters)

'000 tons AUSTRALIA CANADA UKRAINE IMPORTERS Oct/Jun Oct/Jun Oct/Jun

2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15 2015/16 2014/15

EU* 1,706 1,060 434 77 322 486 Mexico - - 1,068 1,042 - - USA - - 289 526 3 - UAE -302 505 232 - 9 China -533 2,901 2,899 - T Japan 57 270 1,587 1,432 - - Bangladesh 11 11 164 - 32 15 Pakistan - 146 945 401 T 158 Others 67 71 11 2 52 72

WORLD TOTAL 1,841 2,392 7,905 6,611 409 740

T Indicates that figure is less than half the unit shown.

NOTES This Report is based on both official and trade sources. While every attempt is made to interpret information accurately, full reliability is not guaranteed. Comments and statistics are subject to regular revision. No part of this Report may be reproduced without permission from, and attribution to, the International Grains Council.  GENERAL NOTES Abbreviations/symbols: m = million bu = bushel(s) ha = hectare(s) bn = a thousand million c = about $ = USA dollar (…) = not available r = revised < = revised from previous month T = less than half the unit shown * EU: EU-28 from 2013/14 onwards, EU-27 until 2012/13

1. Total grains: wheat and coarse grains, excluding rice 2. Coarse grains: maize (corn), barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, triticale and mixed grains (excl. all products) 3. Tons refer to metric tons, unless otherwise stated 4. Figures in brackets refer to corresponding data for previous year, unless otherwise stated 5. Regional totals include estimates for countries not listed 6. Because of rounding, totals may not add 7. In supply and demand sections, carryover stocks totals are the aggregates for different marketing years, and therefore do not represent stocks at a single date. Due to variations in crop years, changes in stocks do not necessarily equal the difference between production and consumption 8. In trade: world totals are normally based on exporter data. CIS includes trade between states. EU excludes intra- trade and export shipments under “inward processing” arrangements

 GRAINS Production 1. Southern hemisphere crops of maize (corn) and sorghum are planted in the year shown but harvested in the following year Trade 1. All wheat: includes durum, wheat flour and semolina (in grain equivalent) 2. PST (Processed Secondary Trade): exports of wheat flour processed from imported wheat (mainly EU and Japan) 3. Coarse grains trade excludes all products 4. 2015/16 (15/16): the year July 2015/June 2016 unless otherwise stated.

 RICE Production 1. Northern hemisphere main rice crops are typically harvested in the second half of the first year shown. The exception is Vietnam, whose main crop, along with the secondary crops of northern hemisphere producers, is harvested in the first half of the following year. In the case of southern hemisphere countries, secondary and other crops are harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, while their main crops are brought in during the first half of the following year.

Trade 1. 2016: calendar year 2. 2015/16 (15/16): in the context of supply and demand estimates and forecasts, trade estimates and forecasts are mostly on a calendar year basis for the second year shown, unless otherwise stated 3. All rice: includes paddy or rough rice, brown rice, semi- and wholly milled rice and broken rice 4. Re-exports: exports of imported rice, including estimated cross border trade 5. Five leading exporters: India, Pakistan, Thailand, USA and Vietnam

 OILSEEDS Trade 1. 2015/16 (15/16): the year October 2015/September 2016 unless otherwise stated

 PRICES AND OCEAN FREIGHT INDICES 1. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI), is a daily index comprising the following components: wheat, maize (corn), barley, sorghum, rice, soyabeans, soyameal and rapeseed/canola. With January 2000 taken as its base, component weightings are based on their five-year average share of the total trade of all commodities considered. The GOI is made available on the home page of the IGC website (http://www.igc.int/en/default.aspx), where specific details surrounding the GOI and historic data are provided. 2. IGC Grain Freight Index (GFI) represents 15 major grain routes, including five from the United States, and two each from other main exporting countries or regions; including Argentina, Black Sea, Europe and Canada. The base is the average of the four weeks ending 11 May 2005 = 6000.

Future GMR publication dates

GMR No. 470....29 September 2016 471....27 October 2016

472....24 November 2016

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