Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Investigations 2010 Report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team Photo courtesy of Steve Ard Data contained in this report are preliminary and subject to change. Please obtain permission prior to citation. To give credit to authors, please cite the section within this report as a chapter in a book. Below is an example: West, K. 2011. Observation flights. Pages 17–19 in C.C. Schwartz, M.A. Haroldson, and K. West, editors. Yellowstone grizzly bear investigations: annual report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team, 2010. U.S. Geological Survey, Bozeman, Montana, USA. Cover: Elk Fork drainage, 17 Jul 2010. Photo courtesy of Steve Ard. YELLOWSTONE GRIZZLY BEAR INVESTIGATIONS Annual Report of the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team 2010 U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming Game and Fish Department National Park Service U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks U.S. Forest Service Idaho Department of Fish and Game Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribal Fish and Game Department Edited by Charles C. Schwartz, Mark A. Haroldson, and Karrie West U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey 2011 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 1 This Report ............................................................................................................................................. 1 History and Purpose of the Study Team ................................................................................................. 2 Previous Research ................................................................................................................................... 2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................................... 4 Bear Monitoring and Population Trend .................................................................................................. 4 Marked Animals ......................................................................................................................... 4 Assessing Trend and Estimating Population Size from Counts of Unduplicated Females ........ 10 Occupancy of Bear Management Units by Females with Young .............................................. 16 Observation Flights .................................................................................................................... 17 Telemetry Relocation Flights ..................................................................................................... 20 Estimating Sustainability of Annual Grizzly Bear Mortalities .................................................. 21 Key Foods Monitoring............................................................................................................................ 27 Spring Ungulate Availability and Use by Grizzly Bears in Yellowstone National Park ............ 27 Spawning Cutthroat Trout .......................................................................................................... 30 Grizzly Bear Use of Insect Aggregation Sites Documented from Aerial Telemetry and Observations ........................................................................................................................ 33 Whitebark Pine Cone Production ............................................................................................... 36 Habitat Monitoring ................................................................................................................................. 38 Grand Teton National Park Recreation Use ............................................................................... 38 Yellowstone National Park Recreational Use ............................................................................ 39 Trends in Elk Hunter Numbers within the Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone Plus the 10-mile Perimeter Area ........................................................................................................................... 40 Grizzly Bear-Human Conflicts in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem ................................................. 41 LITERATURE CITED ....................................................................................................................................... 45 Appendix A: 2010 Wyoming Bear Wise Community Project Update ............................................................ 50 Appendix B: Monitoring Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: 2010 Annual Report ...... 56 Appendix C: 2010 Grizzly Bear Habitat Monitoring Report .......................................................................... 66 The grizzly bear was removed from protection Introduction under the Endangered Species Act on 30 April 2007 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [USFWS] 2007a) but (Charles C. Schwartz, Interagency Grizzly Bear Study relisted by court order in 2009. Although the status Team, and David Moody, Wyoming Game and Fish changed, we continue to follow monitoring protocols Department) established under the Revised Demographic Recovery Criteria (USFWS 2007b) and the demographic This Report monitoring section of the Final Conservation Strategy The contents of this Annual Report summarize for the Grizzly Bear in the Greater Yellowstone Area results of monitoring and research from the 2010 (USFWS 2007c). The IGBST will continue reporting field season. The report also contains a summary on an array of required monitoring programs. These of nuisance grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) include both population and habitat components. management actions. Annual population monitoring includes: The Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team • Monitoring unduplicated females with COY (IGBST) continues to work on issues associated with for the entire Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). counts of unduplicated females with cubs-of-the-year • Calculating a total population estimate for (COY). These counts are used to estimate population the entire GYA based on the model averaged size, which are then used to establish mortality Choa2 estimate of females with COY. thresholds. Our review published in the Journal of • Monitoring the distribution of females with Wildlife Management (Schwartz et al. 2008) suggested young of all ages and having a target of at least that the rule set of Knight et al. (1995) returned 16 of 18 Bear Management Units (BMUs) conservative estimates, but with minor improvements, within the Primary Conservation Area (PCA) counts of unduplicated females with COY served occupied at least 1 year in every 6, and no as a reasonable index of population size useful for 2 adjacent BMUs can be unoccupied over establishing annual mortality limits. As a follow up to any 6-year period (see “Occupancy of Bear the findings of Schwartz et al. (2008), the IGBST held Management Units by Females with Young”). a workshop in October 2007 (IGBST 2008:Appendix • Monitoring all sources of mortality for F). The purpose of the workshop was to discuss the independent (≥2 years old) females and males feasibility of developing new models that improve our within the entire GYA. Mortality limits are ability to distinguish unique females with COY. The set at ≤9% for independent females, ≤15% for outcome of that workshop was a research proposal independent males from all causes. Mortality detailing methods to develop a hierarchical model limits for dependent young are ≤9% for known that should improve the methods used to distinguish and probable human-caused mortalities (see unique females with COY. Multiple agencies who “Estimating Sustainability of Annual Grizzly are members of the Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Bear Mortalities”). Coordinating Committee provided funding for this project. There were some delays in getting all the Habitat monitoring includes documenting the money transferred and as a result we did not get the abundance of the 4 major foods throughout the GYA project started in early 2009 as anticipated. However, including winter ungulate carcasses, cutthroat trout the project was active in 2010. Results of early (Oncorhynchus clarkii) spawning numbers, bear use simulation modeling suggested that the Bayesian of army cutworm moth (Euxoa auxiliaris) sites, and approach recommended during the workshop was whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) cone production. not feasible. Consequently, we took a different These protocols have been monitored and reported approach and applied logistic regression modeling to by the IGBST for several years and are reported here. the problem. Results of that work were presented to a Additionally, we continued to monitor the health of team of quantitative ecologists. That group endorsed whitebark pine in the ecosystem in cooperation with the approach and we are now running additional the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring simulations based on their recommendations. We Working Group. A summary of 2010 monitoring is hope to complete this project in 2011. also presented (Appendix B). The protocol has been 1 modified to document mortality rate in whitebark publication, data summaries are subject to change. pine from all causes, including mountain pine beetle For that reason, data analyses and summaries (Dendroctonus ponderosae). presented in this report supersede all previously Although monitoring requirements under published data. The study area and sampling the Conservation Strategy (USFWS 2007c) do not techniques are reported