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Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index

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Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index Greek Fixed Income Monitor: Greek Government Bonds: Closer to Investment Grade after the S&P Upgrade. Ilias Lekkos [email protected] Dimitria Rotsika [email protected] Economic Research & Investment Strategy Haris Giannakidis [email protected] April 2021 Paraskevi Vlachou [email protected] BLOOMBERG TICKERS Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index: {PBGGGSBI Index<GO>} Weighted Average Yield: {PBGGGWAY Index<GO>} Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index : {PBGGGCBI Index<GO>} Weighted Average Yield : {PBGGIWAY Index<GO>} Agenda 1 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση / Monthly Commentary 2 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index 3 GGB – spreads: Fair value & Risk assessment 4 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index 5 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index 2 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση: Απρίλιος 2021 Οριακές απώλειες τον Απρίλιο για τα κρατικά ομόλογα με τις μεγαλύτερες αυξήσεις στα επιτόκια να παρατηρούνται στις μακροπρόθεσμες λήξεις της καμπύλης. Συγκεκριμένα, ο Δείκτης Κρατικών Ομολόγων κατέγραψε μείωση της τάξης του -0.46% τον Απρίλιο στις 684 μονάδες. Η μεσοσταθμική απόδοση του δείκτη, αν και ελάχιστα υψηλότερη σε σχέση με τις αρχές του 2021, παραμένει σε χαμηλά επίπεδα σηματοδοτώντας ότι η ζήτηση στην ελληνική αγορά ομολόγων παραμένει δυνατή. Ενδεικτικό της ζήτησης είναι και η έκδοση του 5ετούς ομολόγου με μηδενικό κουπόνι η οποία υπερκαλύφθηκε κατά 6.7 φορές του ποσού έκδοσης των €3 δις ενώ πάνω από 80% της έκδοσης διακρατείται από μακροπρόθεσμού επενδυτές. Παρά το γεγονός ότι το ποσό των €12 δις από το πρόγραμμα δανεισμού του 2021 έχει ήδη καλυφθεί, το επόμενο διάστημα και επιπρόσθετα του 5ετούς ομολόγου αναμένεται να υπάρξουν και νέες εκδόσεις πιθανότατα με την μορφή επανέκδοσης. Ώθηση στην αγορά ομολόγων δόθηκε και από την μη αναμενόμενη αύξηση κατά μια βαθμίδα της πιστοληπτικής αξιολόγησης της χώρας σε ΒΒ από τον οίκο S&P χωρίς ωστόσο να καταγραφεί μείωση στις αποδόσεις των κρατικών ομολόγων. Πλέον, δύο οίκοι πιστοληπτικής αξιολόγησης, S&P και Fitch απέχουν δυο βαθμίδες από την επενδυτική αξιολόγηση με την διαφορά ότι για τον S&P μια περαιτέρω αναβάθμιση τους επόμενους 12-18 μήνες είναι πιθανή καθώς οι προοπτικές έχουν αναβαθμιστεί από σταθερές σε θετικές. Εξίσου πιθανή είναι και μια ενδεχόμενη αναβάθμιση από τον οίκο Moodys τον Μάιο, καθώς υπολείπεται των ανωτέρω οίκων κατά μια βαθμίδα. To 10ετές spread σε σχέση με την γερμανική 10ετία κατέγραψε μικρή άνοδο τον Απρίλιο φτάνοντας τις 119 μονάδες βάσης από τις 116 μβ τον προηγούμενο μήνα. Η ποσοτική εκτίμηση μιας δίκαιης τιμής για το 10ετές spread βρίσκεται στις 108 μονάδες βάσης λαμβάνοντας υπόψη και την ώθηση που δίνει στα ελληνικά ομόλογα το πρόγραμμα PEPP της ΕΚΤ. Άλλοι παράγοντες βελτίωσης της δίκαιης τιμής είναι η υψηλότερη διάθεση για επενδυτικό ρίσκο και οι προβλέψεις για σημαντική οικονομική ενίσχυση από το Ταμείο ανάκαμψης όπως αντικατοπτρίζεται στους θεμελιώδης παράγοντες του στατιστικού μοντέλου. Είναι σημαντικό να αναφερθεί ότι χωρίς την υπερκάλυψη κατά 1.4 φορές της εκδοτικής δραστηριότητας του ΟΔΔΧ από την ΕΚΤ, η «δίκαιη» τιμή για το 10ετές spread θα διαμορφωνόταν τουλάχιστον 200 μβ υψηλότερα στις 308 μβ. Την ανοδική τους πορεία συνεχίζουν τα ελληνικά εταιρικά ομόλογα με τις νέες εκδόσεις για το 2021 να φτάνουν τα €1,475 δις, ενισχυμένα και με την έκδοση του 5ετούς πράσινου ομολόγου της Μυτιληναίος τον Απρίλιο. Συγκεκριμένα η έκδοση €500 εκ υπερκαλύφθηκε κατά 4 φορές με το κουπόνι της έκδοσης να διαμορφώνεται στο κατώτερο εύρος, στο 2,25%. Σε συνέχεια της ανόδου του Δείκτη Εταιρικών Ομολόγων τον προηγούμενο μήνα, τον Απρίλιο ο δείκτης κατέγραψε κέρδη της τάξης του 0,32%% φτάνοντας στα τέλη Απριλίου σε ιστορικό υψηλό στις 144,2 μονάδες. Αντίστοιχα, η μεσοσταθμική απόδοση των εταιρικών ομολόγων του δείκτη στα τέλη του μήνα έκλεισε στο 2,67%, μειωμένη κατά 27 μονάδες βάσης σε σχέση με τον Μάρτιο. Source: Piraeus Bank Research 3 Monthly Commentary: April 2021 Greek government bonds experienced marginal losses in April, with the largest increases in yields recorded at the long end of the yield curve. Specifically, the Government Bond Index recorded a decrease of -0.46% in April to 684 points. The weighted average Yield to Maturity (YtM) of the index, although slightly higher relative to the beginning of 2021, remains low, signaling that investor demand for Greek government bonds remains strong. Indicative of the robustness of external demand is the issuance of the zero coupon 5-year bond with oversubscription equal to 6.7 times the issued amount of €3 billion, with over 80% of the issue is held by long-term investors. Even though the €12 billion announced in the 2021 borrowing programme by the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) has already been covered, it is anticipated that new government bond issues will continue until June, probably in the form of reopening a pre-existing issue. The Greek bond market was also bolstered by S&P’s unexpected upgrade of the country’s credit rating by one notch to BB, without, however, recording an explicit impact on government bond yields. Currently, two credit rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, are two steps away from announcing an “investment grade” rating score for Greek debt, with the difference lying in S&P upgrading the rating outlook to positive, thus signaling that another upgrade is possible in the next 12–18 months. Equally likely is a possible upgrade from Moody’s in May, as its credit rating stands one notch below those of the other credit rating agencies. The 10-year spread relative to the German 10-year benchmark bond recorded a slight increase in April, reaching 119 basis points (bps) from 116 bps last month. The quantitative estimate of a “fair” value for the 10-year spread currently stands at 108 basis points, taking into account the impetus that the ECB PEPP programme gave to Greek bonds. Other factors that drove the improvement to “fair” value are the higher disposition for undertaking investment risk and the forecasts for significant economic support from the Recovery Fund, as reflected in the fundamental factors of our statistical model. It is important to note that without the ECB’s 1.4-fold coverage of the PDMA ’s issuance activity, the "fair" value for the 10-year spread would be at least 200 bps higher, at 308 bps. Greek corporate bonds continued their upward trend with the new bond issues for 2021 reaching €1.475 billion, further strengthened by the issuance of the 5- year Mytilineos green bond in April. Specifically, the €500 million issue was oversubscribed by four times, with its coupon being formed in the lower range of the initial estimate of 2.25%. Following the increase of the Corporate Bond Index last month, the index recorded gains of 0.32% in April, reaching a record high of 144.2 points at the end of April. Respectively , the weighted average YtM of the index at the end of the month closed at 2.67%, reduced by 27 basis points compared to March. Source: Piraeus Bank Research 4 Agenda 1 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση / Monthly commentary 2 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index 3 GGB – spreads: Fair value & Risk assessment 4 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index 5 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index 5 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (I): The index decreased by 0.46% to 684 points PBGGGSBI evolution [ Jan 2013 – 29 Apr. 2021 ] PBGGGSBI evolution [ 1 April 2021 – 29 April 2021 ] (Index, base date 9 Mar. 12 & Yield to Maturity, %) (Index, base date 9 Mar. 12 & Yield to Maturity, %) 800 22.0 695 0.73 20.0 0.72 700 18.0 690 0.71 600 16.0 0.70 0.69 500 14.0 685 0.68 12.0 400 0.67 10.0 680 0.66 300 8.0 0.65 6.0 200 675 0.64 4.0 0.63 100 2.0 670 0.62 0 0.0 1-Apr-21 3-Apr-21 5-Apr-21 7-Apr-21 9-Apr-21 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-20 Jul-19 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 11-Apr-21 13-Apr-21 19-Apr-21 21-Apr-21 23-Apr-21 25-Apr-21 27-Apr-21 29-Apr-21 15-Apr-21 17-Apr-21 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17 Apr-19 Apr-21 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-18 Apr-20 PB Government Bond Index (LHS) PB Government Bond Index (LHS) PB Government Bond Index YtM % (RHS) PB Government Bond Index YtM % (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 6 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (II): Government bond returns close to the left tail of their historical distribution PBGGGSBI Relative Rank [ Jan 2015 – Apr. 2021 ] PBGGGSBI Monthly Returns Histogram (percentile rank YoY total returns) (historical data: April 2012 – April 2021) 100 20% 100% 90 18% 90% 80 16% 80% 70 14% 70% 60 12% 60% 50 10% 50% 40 8% 40% Current Return Percentile: 22% 30 Frequency 6% 30% 20 4% 20% Cummulative Frequency 10 2% 10% 0 0% 0% 0.0 4.4 8.8 -8.8 -4.4 13.2 17.5 21.9 26.3 30.7 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 -39.4 -35.1 -30.7 -26.3 -21.9 -17.5 -13.1 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Feb-20 Feb-21 Aug-19 Aug-20 Nov-19 Nov-20 May-19 May-20 Monthly Return Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 7 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (III): Towards a steeper interest rate curve in April Monthly Performance of PBGGGSBI index members Interest Rate Curve* (Monthly Return, %) 2.0 10.0 1.8 GGB (Aug 2022) 1.6 5.0 GGB (Jan 2023) 1.4 0.0 GGB (Apr 2024) 1.2 1.0 GGB (Feb 2025) -5.0 0.8 bps GGB (July 2026) 0.6 -10.0 Interest Rate 0.4 GGB (April 2027) 0.2 -15.0 GGB (Jan 2028) 0.0 Spot Change (RHS) GGB (Mar 2029) -0.2 31-Mar-21 -20.0 -0.4 29-Apr-21 GGB (June 2031) -0.6 -25.0 6M 2Y 4Y 6Y 8Y 10Y 12Y 14Y 16Y 18Y 20Y 22Y 24Y 26Y 28Y 30Y GGB (June 2030) Tenor GGB (Jan 2033) * Interest rate curves were estimated using the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model GGB (Apr 2035 GGB (Jan 2037) GGB (Jan 2042) GGB (Jan 2052) 0.0 0.5 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 8 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (IV): Composition & Description Amount Next Coupon Issue Credit Last Price Yield Ticker Outstanding Currency Coupon Coupon Maturity Type Date Rating (S&P) 29 Apr.
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