Greek Fixed Income Monitor: Greek Government Bonds: Closer to Investment Grade after the S&P Upgrade.
Ilias Lekkos [email protected] Dimitria Rotsika [email protected] Economic Research & Investment Strategy Haris Giannakidis [email protected] April 2021 Paraskevi Vlachou [email protected]
BLOOMBERG TICKERS Piraeus Bank Government Bond Index: {PBGGGSBI Index
1 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση / Monthly Commentary
2 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index
3 GGB – spreads: Fair value & Risk assessment
4 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index
5 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index
2 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση: Απρίλιος 2021
Οριακές απώλειες τον Απρίλιο για τα κρατικά ομόλογα με τις μεγαλύτερες αυξήσεις στα επιτόκια να παρατηρούνται στις μακροπρόθεσμες λήξεις της καμπύλης. Συγκεκριμένα, ο Δείκτης Κρατικών Ομολόγων κατέγραψε μείωση της τάξης του -0.46% τον Απρίλιο στις 684 μονάδες. Η μεσοσταθμική απόδοση του δείκτη, αν και ελάχιστα υψηλότερη σε σχέση με τις αρχές του 2021, παραμένει σε χαμηλά επίπεδα σηματοδοτώντας ότι η ζήτηση στην ελληνική αγορά ομολόγων παραμένει δυνατή. Ενδεικτικό της ζήτησης είναι και η έκδοση του 5ετούς ομολόγου με μηδενικό κουπόνι η οποία υπερκαλύφθηκε κατά 6.7 φορές του ποσού έκδοσης των €3 δις ενώ πάνω από 80% της έκδοσης διακρατείται από μακροπρόθεσμού επενδυτές. Παρά το γεγονός ότι το ποσό των €12 δις από το πρόγραμμα δανεισμού του 2021 έχει ήδη καλυφθεί, το επόμενο διάστημα και επιπρόσθετα του 5ετούς ομολόγου αναμένεται να υπάρξουν και νέες εκδόσεις πιθανότατα με την μορφή επανέκδοσης.
Ώθηση στην αγορά ομολόγων δόθηκε και από την μη αναμενόμενη αύξηση κατά μια βαθμίδα της πιστοληπτικής αξιολόγησης της χώρας σε ΒΒ από τον οίκο S&P χωρίς ωστόσο να καταγραφεί μείωση στις αποδόσεις των κρατικών ομολόγων. Πλέον, δύο οίκοι πιστοληπτικής αξιολόγησης, S&P και Fitch απέχουν δυο βαθμίδες από την επενδυτική αξιολόγηση με την διαφορά ότι για τον S&P μια περαιτέρω αναβάθμιση τους επόμενους 12-18 μήνες είναι πιθανή καθώς οι προοπτικές έχουν αναβαθμιστεί από σταθερές σε θετικές. Εξίσου πιθανή είναι και μια ενδεχόμενη αναβάθμιση από τον οίκο Moodys τον Μάιο, καθώς υπολείπεται των ανωτέρω οίκων κατά μια βαθμίδα.
To 10ετές spread σε σχέση με την γερμανική 10ετία κατέγραψε μικρή άνοδο τον Απρίλιο φτάνοντας τις 119 μονάδες βάσης από τις 116 μβ τον προηγούμενο μήνα. Η ποσοτική εκτίμηση μιας δίκαιης τιμής για το 10ετές spread βρίσκεται στις 108 μονάδες βάσης λαμβάνοντας υπόψη και την ώθηση που δίνει στα ελληνικά ομόλογα το πρόγραμμα PEPP της ΕΚΤ. Άλλοι παράγοντες βελτίωσης της δίκαιης τιμής είναι η υψηλότερη διάθεση για επενδυτικό ρίσκο και οι προβλέψεις για σημαντική οικονομική ενίσχυση από το Ταμείο ανάκαμψης όπως αντικατοπτρίζεται στους θεμελιώδης παράγοντες του στατιστικού μοντέλου. Είναι σημαντικό να αναφερθεί ότι χωρίς την υπερκάλυψη κατά 1.4 φορές της εκδοτικής δραστηριότητας του ΟΔΔΧ από την ΕΚΤ, η «δίκαιη» τιμή για το 10ετές spread θα διαμορφωνόταν τουλάχιστον 200 μβ υψηλότερα στις 308 μβ.
Την ανοδική τους πορεία συνεχίζουν τα ελληνικά εταιρικά ομόλογα με τις νέες εκδόσεις για το 2021 να φτάνουν τα €1,475 δις, ενισχυμένα και με την έκδοση του 5ετούς πράσινου ομολόγου της Μυτιληναίος τον Απρίλιο. Συγκεκριμένα η έκδοση €500 εκ υπερκαλύφθηκε κατά 4 φορές με το κουπόνι της έκδοσης να διαμορφώνεται στο κατώτερο εύρος, στο 2,25%. Σε συνέχεια της ανόδου του Δείκτη Εταιρικών Ομολόγων τον προηγούμενο μήνα, τον Απρίλιο ο δείκτης κατέγραψε κέρδη της τάξης του 0,32%% φτάνοντας στα τέλη Απριλίου σε ιστορικό υψηλό στις 144,2 μονάδες. Αντίστοιχα, η μεσοσταθμική απόδοση των εταιρικών ομολόγων του δείκτη στα τέλη του μήνα έκλεισε στο 2,67%, μειωμένη κατά 27 μονάδες βάσης σε σχέση με τον Μάρτιο.
Source: Piraeus Bank Research 3 Monthly Commentary: April 2021
Greek government bonds experienced marginal losses in April, with the largest increases in yields recorded at the long end of the yield curve. Specifically, the Government Bond Index recorded a decrease of -0.46% in April to 684 points. The weighted average Yield to Maturity (YtM) of the index, although slightly higher relative to the beginning of 2021, remains low, signaling that investor demand for Greek government bonds remains strong. Indicative of the robustness of external demand is the issuance of the zero coupon 5-year bond with oversubscription equal to 6.7 times the issued amount of €3 billion, with over 80% of the issue is held by long-term investors. Even though the €12 billion announced in the 2021 borrowing programme by the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) has already been covered, it is anticipated that new government bond issues will continue until June, probably in the form of reopening a pre-existing issue.
The Greek bond market was also bolstered by S&P’s unexpected upgrade of the country’s credit rating by one notch to BB, without, however, recording an explicit impact on government bond yields. Currently, two credit rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, are two steps away from announcing an “investment grade” rating score for Greek debt, with the difference lying in S&P upgrading the rating outlook to positive, thus signaling that another upgrade is possible in the next 12–18 months. Equally likely is a possible upgrade from Moody’s in May, as its credit rating stands one notch below those of the other credit rating agencies.
The 10-year spread relative to the German 10-year benchmark bond recorded a slight increase in April, reaching 119 basis points (bps) from 116 bps last month. The quantitative estimate of a “fair” value for the 10-year spread currently stands at 108 basis points, taking into account the impetus that the ECB PEPP programme gave to Greek bonds. Other factors that drove the improvement to “fair” value are the higher disposition for undertaking investment risk and the forecasts for significant economic support from the Recovery Fund, as reflected in the fundamental factors of our statistical model. It is important to note that without the ECB’s 1.4-fold coverage of the PDMA ’s issuance activity, the "fair" value for the 10-year spread would be at least 200 bps higher, at 308 bps.
Greek corporate bonds continued their upward trend with the new bond issues for 2021 reaching €1.475 billion, further strengthened by the issuance of the 5- year Mytilineos green bond in April. Specifically, the €500 million issue was oversubscribed by four times, with its coupon being formed in the lower range of the initial estimate of 2.25%. Following the increase of the Corporate Bond Index last month, the index recorded gains of 0.32% in April, reaching a record high of 144.2 points at the end of April. Respectively , the weighted average YtM of the index at the end of the month closed at 2.67%, reduced by 27 basis points compared to March.
Source: Piraeus Bank Research 4 Agenda
1 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση / Monthly commentary
2 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index
3 GGB – spreads: Fair value & Risk assessment
4 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index
5 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index
5 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (I): The index decreased by 0.46% to 684 points
PBGGGSBI evolution [ Jan 2013 – 29 Apr. 2021 ] PBGGGSBI evolution [ 1 April 2021 – 29 April 2021 ] (Index, base date 9 Mar. 12 & Yield to Maturity, %) (Index, base date 9 Mar. 12 & Yield to Maturity, %)
800 22.0 695 0.73 20.0 0.72 700 18.0 690 0.71 600 16.0 0.70 0.69 500 14.0 685 0.68 12.0 400 0.67 10.0 680 0.66 300 8.0 0.65 6.0 200 675 0.64 4.0 0.63 100 2.0 670 0.62
0 0.0
1-Apr-21 3-Apr-21 5-Apr-21 7-Apr-21 9-Apr-21
Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-20 Jul-19
Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19
Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20
11-Apr-21 13-Apr-21 19-Apr-21 21-Apr-21 23-Apr-21 25-Apr-21 27-Apr-21 29-Apr-21 15-Apr-21 17-Apr-21
Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17 Apr-19 Apr-21 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-18 Apr-20 PB Government Bond Index (LHS) PB Government Bond Index (LHS) PB Government Bond Index YtM % (RHS) PB Government Bond Index YtM % (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 6 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (II): Government bond returns close to the left tail of their historical distribution
PBGGGSBI Relative Rank [ Jan 2015 – Apr. 2021 ] PBGGGSBI Monthly Returns Histogram (percentile rank YoY total returns) (historical data: April 2012 – April 2021) 100 20% 100% 90 18% 90%
80 16% 80%
70 14% 70%
60 12% 60%
50 10% 50%
40 8% 40% Current Return Percentile: 22% 30 Frequency 6% 30% 20
4% 20% Cummulative Frequency
10 2% 10%
0 0% 0%
0.0
4.4
8.8
-8.8
-4.4
13.2
17.5
21.9
26.3
30.7
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
-39.4
-35.1
-30.7
-26.3
-21.9
-17.5
-13.1
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Feb-20
Feb-21
Aug-19
Aug-20
Nov-19
Nov-20 May-19 May-20 Monthly Return
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 7 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (III): Towards a steeper interest rate curve in April Monthly Performance of PBGGGSBI index members Interest Rate Curve* (Monthly Return, %) 2.0 10.0 1.8 GGB (Aug 2022) 1.6 5.0 GGB (Jan 2023) 1.4 0.0 GGB (Apr 2024) 1.2 1.0 GGB (Feb 2025) -5.0
0.8 bps GGB (July 2026) 0.6 -10.0 Interest Rate 0.4 GGB (April 2027) 0.2 -15.0 GGB (Jan 2028) 0.0 Spot Change (RHS) GGB (Mar 2029) -0.2 31-Mar-21 -20.0 -0.4 29-Apr-21 GGB (June 2031) -0.6 -25.0 6M 2Y 4Y 6Y 8Y 10Y 12Y 14Y 16Y 18Y 20Y 22Y 24Y 26Y 28Y 30Y GGB (June 2030) Tenor GGB (Jan 2033) * Interest rate curves were estimated using the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model GGB (Apr 2035
GGB (Jan 2037)
GGB (Jan 2042)
GGB (Jan 2052)
0.0 0.5
-2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 8 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index (IV): Composition & Description Amount Next Coupon Issue Credit Last Price Yield Ticker Outstanding Currency Coupon Coupon Maturity Type Date Rating (S&P) 29 Apr. 21 29 Apr. 21 (€ bn) Payment GGB 4.375%, Aug’22 3.00 3.00 4.38 FIXED 01/08/21 01/08/17 01/08/22 BB- 105.87 -0.317 GGB 3.50%, Jan’23 4.36 4.36 3.50 FIXED 30/01/22 05/12/17 30/01/23 BB- 106.73 -0.337 GGB 3.45%, Apr’24 2.50 2.50 3.45 FIXED 02/04/22 05/02/19 02/04/24 BB- 110.72 -0.21 GGB 3.375%, Feb’25 3.00 3.00 3.38 FIXED 15/02/22 15/02/18 15/02/25 BB- 113.15 -0.088 GGB 1.875%, Jul’26 2.50 2.50 1.88 FIXED 23/07/21 23/07/19 23/07/26 BB- 109.09 0.128 GGB 2.0%, Apr’27 2.00 2.00 2.00 FIXED 22/04/22 22/04/20 22/04/27 BB- 109.92 0.319 GGB 3.75%, Jan’28 5.96 5.96 3.75 FIXED 30/01/22 05/12/17 30/01/28 BB- 121.69 0.475 GGB 3.88%, Mar’29 4.00 4.00 3.88 FIXED 12/03/22 12/03/19 12/03/29 BB- 124.36 0.681
Composition GGB 1.50%, Jun’30 5.50 5.50 1.50 FIXED 18/06/21 18/06/20 18/06/30 BB- 105.61 0.859 PBGGGSBI Index PBGGGSBI Index GGB 0.75%, Jun’31 3.50 3.50 0.75 FIXED 18/06/21 05/02/21 18/06/31 BB- 97.81 0.978 GGB 3.90%, Jan’33 6.09 6.09 3.90 FIXED 30/01/22 05/12/17 30/01/33 BB- 131.28 1.054 GGB 1.875%, Feb’35 4.50 4.50 1.88 FIXED 04/02/22 04/02/20 04/02/35 BB- 107.70 1.261 GGB 4.0%, Jan’37 4.81 4.81 4.00 FIXED 30/01/22 05/12/17 30/01/37 BB- 136.83 1.381 GGB 4.2%, Jan’42 4.60 4.60 4.20 FIXED 30/01/22 05/12/17 30/01/42 BB- 146.53 1.558 GGB 2.5%, Jan’52 2.50 2.50 1.88 FIXED 24/01/22 24/03/21 24/01/52 BB- 97.50 1.985 29 April 2021 Members 15 Market Capitalisation (EUR bn.) 58.82 Weighted Average Yield 0.72
Index Index Weighted Average Coupon 3.06
PBGGGSBI Weighted Average Maturity 10.08 Description Weighted Average Duration 8.54
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 9 Greek sovereign rating history: Positive surprise by the S&P rating upgrade Last Rating Latest Next Scheduled Current LT Rating Outlook Up/ Down grade Review Review Fitch BB Stable January 2020 January 2021 16 July 2021 Moody’s Ba3 Stable November 2020 November 2020 21 May 2021 Standard & Poor’s BB Positive April 2021 April 2021 22 October 2021 DBRS BB (low) Stable May 2019 March 2021 17 September 2021
AAA / Aaa AA+ / Aa1 Moody's AA / Aa2 S&P AA- / Aa3 Fitch A+ / A1 Investment Grade A / A2 A- / A3 BBB+ / Baa1 BBB / Baa2 BBB- / Baa3 BB+ / Ba1 BB / Ba2 BB- / Ba3 B+ / B1 B / B2 B- / B3 CCC+ / Caa1 CCC / Caa2 CCC- / Caa3 CC / Ca
C / C
.21
2002 2003 2007 2008 2009 2013 2014 2018 2019 2020 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012 2015 2016 2017 2021 Apr
Source: Moody’s, Fitch, S&P, DBRS, Piraeus Bank Research 10 Maturities Profile: Greek debt profile as well as its average maturity remain favorable
Bonds & Loans Maturities1 Debt distribution by holder (%): (as of 7 May 2021, € mn)
T-bills IMF 13,000 Bonds (post 3% 1% EU billateral 12,000 PSI, new), (GLF) International 11,000 13% 19% 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 ESM 6,000 16% 5,000 Other State 4,000 loans 13% 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
ECB/NCB
2070
2069
2068
2067
2066
2065
2064
2063
2062
2061
2060
2059
2058
2057
2056
2055
2054
2053
2052
2051
2050
2049
2048
2047
2046
2045
2044
2043
2042
2041
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023 2022 1% 2021 EFSF 34% GGB (Post PSI, CB's and New) International EFSF ESM IMF Bilateral - GLF Other Loans
Note: 1. figures do not include T bills and repos.
Source: PDMA, Ministry of Finance, ESM, IMF, European Commission, Piraeus Bank Research 11 Agenda
1 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση / Monthly commentary
2 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index
3 GGB – spreads: Fair value & Risk assessment
4 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index
5 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index
12 Greek Government Bond Spreads (I): Risk-off sentiment and PEPP pushes “fair” spread downwards
Greek Government 10-Year Spread vs 10-Year Bund (basis points)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Jul-19 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-20
Jan-18 Jan-21 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-20
Jun-18 Jun-20 Jun-17 Jun-19
Oct-17 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-18
Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-21 Apr-17 Apr-20
Feb-17 Sep-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Sep-17 Feb-18 Feb-20 Sep-20 Feb-21
Dec-19 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-20
Aug-17 Aug-20 Aug-18 Aug-19
Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-20 Nov-19
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-20 Mar-19 Mar-21
May-17 May-19 May-20 May-18
20% CI 50% CI 90% CI Model Estimate Actual ECB PEPP
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 13 Greek Government Bond Spreads (II): No significant change in balance of risks and market stress indices
Greek Gov. Bond Market Balance of Risks Indicator Greek Gov. Bond Market Stress Indicator (historical data: January 2009 – April 2021) (historical data: January 2000 – April 2021)
0.60 100 Risks tilted to higher spreads Undervalued 90 Bond-negative Fundamentals 80 0.40 70 60 50 0.20 40 30 0.00 20 10 0 -0.20 -10 -20 -30 -0.40 -40 Risks tilted to lower spreads -50 Bond-positive -60 -0.60 -70 -80 -0.80 -90 Overvalued Fundamentals
-100
Jul-12 Jul-19
Jan-16 Jan-09
Jun-15
Oct-10 Oct-17
Apr-14 Apr-21
Feb-13 Sep-13 Feb-20 Sep-20
Dec-18 Dec-11
2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2002 2008 2009 2012 2013 2019
Aug-09 Aug-16
Nov-14
Mar-10 Mar-17
May-11 May-18
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 14 Agenda
1 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση / Monthly commentary
2 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index
3 GGB – spreads: Fair value & Risk assessment
4 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index
5 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index
15 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index (I): Index increased by 0.32% to 144.2 points
PBGGGCBI evolution [ Jan 2013 – Apr. 2021 ] PBGGGCBI evolution [ 1 April 2021 –29 April 2021 ] (Index, base date 2 Jan. 13 & Yield to Maturity, %) (Index, base date 2 Jan.13 & Yield to Maturity, %)
150 14.0 144.5 3.00
144.0 2.95 140 12.0 143.5 2.90 130 10.0 2.85 143.0 2.80 120 8.0 142.5 2.75 142.0 110 6.0 2.70 141.5 2.65 100 4.0 141.0 2.60 140.5 90 2.0 2.55 140.0 2.50
80 0.0
1-Apr-21 3-Apr-21 7-Apr-21 9-Apr-21 5-Apr-21
Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-13 Jul-20
Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-21
13-Apr-21 15-Apr-21 17-Apr-21 19-Apr-21 23-Apr-21 25-Apr-21 29-Apr-21 11-Apr-21 21-Apr-21 27-Apr-21
Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-18
Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-15 PB Corporate Bond Index (LHS) PB Corporate Bond Index (LHS) PB Corporate Bond Index YtM % (RHS) PB Corporate Bond Index YtM % (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 16 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index (II): YoY performance still elevated to historical high
PBGGGCBI Distribution [ Jan 2015 – Apr. 2021 ] PBGGGCBI Monthly Returns histogram (percentile rank relative to previous year) (historical data: January 2013 – April 2021)
100 18% 100%
90 16% 90%
80 80% 14% 70 70% 12% 60 60% 10% 50 50% 8% Current Return 40 Percentile: 36% 40% 6%
30 Frequency 30% 4% 20 20% Cummulative Frequency 2% 10 10%
0 0% 0%
0.1
1.2
2.3
3.4
4.5
5.6
6.7
-9.7
-8.6
-7.5
-6.4
-5.3
-4.2
-3.1
-2.0
-0.9
-10.8
May-…
May-…
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Feb-20
Feb-21
Aug-19
Aug-20 Nov-19 Nov-20 Monthly Return
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 17 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index (III): Bond-specific price recovery drives the index upwards
Monthly Performance of PBGGGCBI index members YtD Performance of PBGGGCBI index members (Monthly Return, %) (YtD Return, %) TITAN (Jun 2021) TITAN (Jun 2021) INTRALOT (Sep 2021) INTRALOT (Sep 2021) HOUSEMARKET (Oct 2021) HOUSEMARKET (Oct 2021) ELPE (Oct 2021) ELPE (Oct 2021) MOTOROIL (Apr 2022) MOTOROIL (Apr 2022) OTE (Jul 2022) OTE (Jul 2022) MLS (Aug 2022) MLS (Aug 2022) CORAL (May 2023) CORAL (May 2023) B&F (Jun 2023) B&F (Jun 2023) MLS (Jul 2024) MLS (Jul 2024) Attica Group (Jul 2024) Attica Group (Jul 2024) INTRALOT (Sep 2024) INTRALOT (Sep 2024) ELPE (Oct 2024) ELPE (Oct 2024) CRYSTAL ALMOND (Oct 2024) CRYSTAL ALMOND (Oct 2024) COCA-COLA (Nov 2024) COCA-COLA (Nov 2024) TITAN (Nov 2024) TITAN (Nov 2024) MYTILINEOS (2024) MYTILINEOS (2024) ELLAKTOR (2024) ELLAKTOR (2024) DELTA TECH (Dec 2024) DELTA TECH (Dec 2024) FRIGOGLASS (2025) FRIGOGLASS (2025) GEK TERNA (Apr 2025) GEK TERNA (Apr 2025) AEGEAN (Mar 2026) AEGEAN (Mar 2026) PPC (Mar 2026) PPC (Mar 2026) OTE (Sep 2026) OTE (Sep 2026) TERNA ENERGY (Oct 2026) TERNA ENERGY (Oct 2026) MYTILINEOS (October 2026) MYTILINEOS (October 2026) COCA-COLA (May 2027) COCA-COLA (May 2027) GEK TERNA (July 2027) GEK TERNA (July 2027) TITAN (July 2027) TITAN (July 2027) LAMDA DEVELOPMENT (July 2027) LAMDA DEVELOPMENT (July 2027) OPAP (October 2027) OPAP (October 2027) MOTOROIL (Mar 2028) MOTOROIL (Mar 2028)
COCA-COLA (May 2031) COCA-COLA (May 2031)
0.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0
10.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 20.0
10.0 -10.0
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 18 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index (II): €1.475 bn new bond issues as of April
Greek Corporate Bond Net Issuance (mn €)
16% of total
Source: Piraeus Bank Research 19 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index (V): Index Composition
Amount Amount Coupon Next Coupon Issue Credit Last Price Yield Name Issued Outstanding Currency Coupon Maturity Type Payment Date Rating (S&P) 29 Apr. 21 29 Apr. 21 (€ bn) (€ bn) TITAN GLOBAL FINANCE PLC 300 163 EUR 3.50 FIXED 17/06/21 17/06/16 17/06/21 BB 100.59 -1.217 INTRALOT CAPITAL LUX 250 250 EUR 6.75 FIXED 15/09/21 23/09/16 15/09/21 NR 81.88 67.870 HOUSEMARKET SA 40 40 EUR 5.00 FIXED 04/07/21 04/10/16 04/10/21 101.60 1.162 HELLENIC PETROLEUM FINAN 450 201 EUR 4.88 FIXED 14/10/21 14/10/16 14/10/21 101.87 0.692 MOTOR OIL FINANCE PLC 350 350 EUR 3.25 FIXED 01/10/21 10/04/17 01/04/22 100.13 3.107 OTE PLC 400 400 EUR 2.38 FIXED 18/07/21 18/07/18 18/07/22 BBB 102.88 -0.012 MLS INNOVATION INC 6 6 EUR 5.30 FIXED 31/05/21 31/08/17 31/08/22 65.00 40.178 CORAL AE OIL CHEMICALS 90 90 EUR 3.00 FIXED 11/11/21 11/05/18 11/05/23 102.20 1.900 B&F COMM GARMENT IND SA 25 21 EUR 4.95 FIXED 26/06/21 26/06/18 26/06/23 96.35 6.773
Index CompositionIndex MLS INNOVATION INC 7 7 EUR 4.30 FIXED 25/07/21 02/08/19 25/07/24 74.00 14.394 ATTICA HOLDINGS SA 175 175 EUR 3.40 FIXED 26/07/21 26/07/19 26/07/24 94.99 5.095 INTRALOT CAPITAL LUX 500 500 EUR 5.25 FIXED 15/09/21 20/09/17 15/09/24 NR 62.46 21.466 HELLENIC PETROLEUM FINAN 600 600 EUR 2.00 FIXED 04/10/21 04/10/19 04/10/24 99.30 2.214
PBGGCBI CRYSTAL ALMOND SARL 525 525 EUR 4.25 FIXED 15/10/21 17/10/19 15/10/24 B 102.21 3.562 COCA-COLA HBC FINANCE BV 600 600 EUR 1.88 FIXED 11/11/21 10/03/16 11/11/24 BBB+ 107.11 -0.136 TITAN GLOBAL FINANCE PLC 350 350 EUR 2.38 FIXED 16/05/21 16/11/17 16/11/24 BB 102.70 1.586 MYTILINEOS FINANCIAL 500 500 EUR 2.50 FIXED 01/06/21 29/11/19 01/12/24 BB- 103.39 1.524 ELLAKTOR VALUE PLC 670 670 EUR 6.38 FIXED 15/06/21 12/12/19 15/12/24 CCC+ 93.60 8.462 DELTA TECHNIKI SA 7 4 EUR 5.50 FIXED 22/06/21 22/12/17 22/12/24 100.50 5.335 Continued..
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 20 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index (IV): Composition & Description Continued.. Amount Amount Next Coupon Issue Credit Last Price Yield Name Issued Outstanding Currency Coupon Coupon Maturity Type Date Rating (S&P) 29 Apr. 21 29 Apr. 21 (€ bn) (€ bn) Payment FRIGOGLASS FINANCE BV 260 260 EUR 6.88 FIXED 01/08/21 12/02/20 12/02/25 B- 90.64 9.903 GEK TERNA HLD ESTATE 120 120 EUR 3.95 FIXED 04/10/21 04/04/18 04/04/25 104.79 2.672 AEGEAN AIRLINES SA 200 200 EUR 3.60 FIXED 13/09/21 12/03/19 12/03/26 99.50 3.711 PUBLIC POWER CORP 775 775 EUR 3.88 FIXED 30/09/21 18/03/21 30/03/26 B 103.40 3.123 OTE PLC 500 500 EUR 0.88 FIXED 24/09/21 24/09/19 24/09/26 BBB 102.34 0.434 TERNA ENERGY FINANCE 150 150 EUR 2.60 FIXED 22/10/21 22/10/19 22/10/26 100.30 2.537 MYTILINEOS SA 500 500 EUR 2.25 FIXED 30/10/21 28/04/21 30/10/26 BB- 101.30 1.999
COCA-COLA HBC FINANCE BV 700 700 EUR 1.00 FIXED 14/05/21 14/05/19 14/05/27 BBB+ 104.50 0.247 Composition
PBGGGCBI Index GEK TERNA HLD ESTATE 500 500 EUR 2.75 FIXED 05/07/21 03/07/20 03/07/27 98.73 2.973 TITAN GLOBAL FINANCE PLC 250 250 EUR 2.75 FIXED 09/07/21 09/07/20 09/07/27 BB 103.48 2.147 LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 320 320 EUR 3.40 FIXED 21/07/21 21/07/20 21/07/27 101.36 3.160 OPAP SA 200 200 EUR 2.10 FIXED 27/10/21 27/10/20 27/10/27 101.71 1.824 MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) SA 200 200 EUR 1.90 FIXED 23/09/21 23/03/21 23/03/28 100.40 1.838 COCA-COLA HBC FINANCE BV 600 600 EUR 1.63 FIXED 14/05/21 14/05/19 14/05/31 BBB+ 109.75 0.619 29 April 2021
Members 33 Index Index Market Capitalisation (EUR bn) 10.73 Weighted Median Yield 2.67 Weighted Average Coupon 3.14
Description Weighted Average Maturity 4.37
PBGGGCBI Weighted Average Duration 3.66
Source: Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Research 21 Agenda
1 Μηνιαία Επισκόπηση / Monthly commentary
2 Piraeus Bank Greek Government Bond Index
3 GGB – spreads: Fair value & Risk assessment
4 Piraeus Bank Greek Corporate Bond Index
5 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index
22 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index: 2019 vs 2020 (I)
EBITDA to interest Net income margin1 Return on common Current ratio 2019 2020 CFO/Total liabilities 2019 2020 Total debt/equity (%) 2019 2020 Net debt/EBITDA 2019 2020 2019 2020 EBITDA margin (%) 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 expense (%) equity (%) LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 4.01 14.04 OTE 27.7 33.5 MYTILINEOS 69.4 65.3 OTE 0.8 0.9 OTE 14.4 20.7 OPAP 56.6 72.3 OPAP 29.0 42.7 DELTA TECHNIKI n.a. 160.5 DELTA TECHNIKI 2.66 2.50 CCHBC 15.6 18.2 TITAN 65.7 70.3 CCHBC 1.6 1.6 CCHBC 13.0 12.2 TERNA ENERGY 62.5 61.4 DELTA TECHNIKI 8.2 36.7 OPAP 27.4 27.5 GEK TERNA 1.44 2.24 TITAN 14.8 17.9 OTE 96.7 72.7 MYTILINEOS 1.3 1.6 OPAP 14.8 8.9 DELTA TECHNIKI 62.8 56.5 TERNA ENERGY 17.2 21.9 OTE 9.4 17.8 TERNA ENERGY 1.75 2.19 HOUSEMARKET 5.4 13.8 LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 45.3 81.7 OPAP 1.2 1.7 PPC -8.2 7.1 OTE 35.5 35.7 OTE 5.2 11.0 TERNA ENERGY 12.8 15.8 HOUSEMARKET 2.88 1.96 DELTA TECHNIKI 1.3 13.3 CCHBC 123.1 111.1 TITAN 3.2 2.9 MYTILINEOS 8.7 6.4 GEK TERNA 23.7 29.3 MYTILINEOS 6.4 6.8 CCHBC 16.8 15.6 MYTILINEOS 2.03 1.89 OPAP 19.5 12.5 ATTICA HOLDINGS 95.1 113.8 PPC n.a. 3.3 TERNA ENERGY 4.1 5.4 B&F 27.0 22.8 CCHBC 6.9 6.8 MYTILINEOS 9.4 8.3 ELLAKTOR 1.62 1.73 MYTILINEOS 10.1 10.4 HOUSEMARKET 92.1 120.7 TERNA ENERGY 4.1 3.3 TITAN 4.4 4.9 PPC -24.0 21.8 GEK TERNA 2.0 1.3 GEK TERNA 4.8 2.5 OPAP 2.68 1.72 TERNA ENERGY 7.1 9.3 PPC 132.0 134.0 HOUSEMARKET 2.9 3.5 HOUSEMARKET 6.2 4.2 MYTILINEOS 14.0 17.2 HOUSEMARKET 4.3 1.1 HOUSEMARKET 8.5 1.8 B&F 1.29 1.65 B&F 17.1 8.8 OPAP 145.2 145.5 DELTA TECHNIKI 5.8 4.3 CORAL OIL 7.7 3.9 CCHBC 15.5 16.5 PPC -34.2 0.8 PPC -48.3 1.1 ATTICA HOLDINGS 2.06 1.59 CORAL OIL 10.9 8.6 MOTOR OIL 88.5 153.1 GEK TERNA 5.3 4.7 DELTA TECHNIKI 2.9 3.7 INTRALOT 15.1 16.3 TITAN 3.2 0.1 TITAN 4.1 0.1 MOTOR OIL 1.76 1.54 PPC 5.0 7.4 ELPE 121.7 166.4 B&F 3.0 5.2 B&F 5.6 3.6 TITAN 16.5 14.9 CORAL OIL 0.9 -0.7 B&F -2.1 -4.1 FRIGOGLASS 1.36 1.51 ELPE 7.6 7.2 TERNA ENERGY 233.1 194.9 FRIGOGLASS 3.2 6.2 GEK TERNA 3.3 3.5 ATTICA HOLDINGS 19.2 13.9 MOTOR OIL 2.4 -1.8 LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 7.1 -5.0 CCHBC 1.15 1.25 GEK TERNA 4.3 6.0 CORAL OIL 177.7 210.2 CORAL OIL 3.6 7.8 ATTICA HOLDINGS 6.0 3.0 HOUSEMARKET 13.8 12.6 B&F -0.8 -2.1 CORAL OIL 14.6 -8.8 CORAL OIL 1.76 1.23 FRIGOGLASS 6.6 3.3 B&F 257.5 263.9 ATTICA HOLDINGS 3.9 8.6 MOTOR OIL 12.2 2.2 FRIGOGLASS 15.1 12.1 FRIGOGLASS 1.2 -4.7 MOTOR OIL 19.7 -10.0 TITAN 1.42 1.22 ATTICA HOLDINGS 5.0 1.3 GEK TERNA 267.1 296.7 MOTOR OIL 0.7 9.6 FRIGOGLASS 4.2 1.9 ELLAKTOR 6.3 3.4 ELPE 1.8 -6.8 ATTICA HOLDINGS 4.9 -12.2 ELPE 1.16 1.07 INTRALOT 3.1 -0.3 ELLAKTOR 279.7 464.5 INTRALOT 9.0 10.9 INTRALOT 1.3 1.2 CORAL OIL 3.0 1.9 ATTICA HOLDINGS 5.1 -17.0 ELPE 7.0 -19.6 AEGEAN AIRLINES 1.41 1.01 ELLAKTOR -4.2 -0.7 DELTA TECHNIKI 4,306.9 634.3 ELLAKTOR 13.5 38.3 ELLAKTOR 1.0 0.3 MOTOR OIL 5.1 1.6 ELLAKTOR -10.3 -20.9 ELLAKTOR -30.0 -58.0 PPC 0.76 0.86 LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 1.3 -3.9 AEGEAN AIRLINES 165.0 1,111.6 ELPE 3.0 n.a. LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 4.9 -0.7 ELPE 6.5 -4.2 INTRALOT -23.8 -29.1 AEGEAN AIRLINES 25.9 -112.3 OTE 0.82 0.85 MOTOR OIL 21.6 -5.2 FRIGOGLASS n.a. n.a. AEGEAN AIRLINES 0.1 n.a. AEGEAN AIRLINES 11.7 -2.2 AEGEAN AIRLINES 20.6 -15.6 AEGEAN AIRLINES 6.0 -54.9 FRIGOGLASS n.a. n.a. INTRALOT 2.49 0.79 AEGEAN AIRLINES 27.6 -6.1 INTRALOT n.a. n.a. LAMDA DEVELOPMENT -1.6 n.a. ELPE 5.3 -2.4 LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 139.1 -33.0 LAMDA DEVELOPMENT 60.8 -76.1 INTRALOT n.a. n.a.
¹ based on net income available to common shareholders. Notes: Group consolidated data. Based on data released until 5th of May 2021. n.a.: not available | incalculable. The analysis focuses on company groups undertaking different types and range of activity, whose nature varies to some extent in the effect it has on the performance of ratios.
Source: Piraeus Bank Research 23 Financial Analysis of Members of Piraeus Bank Corporate Index: 2019 vs 2020 (II) Despite the negative global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, ΟΤΕ appeared resilient in 2020, strengthening net profitability and the ratio of operating cash flows to liabilities compared to 2019. Similarly, TITAN was resilient in 2020, with stable turnover. The drastic net profit decline was mainly due to significant non-cash charges related to the market of Egypt. At the same time, the operating cash flows enhanced and the net debt was significantly restrained. Sales of the MYTILINEOS group declined in 2020, influenced, inter alia, by metal and energy prices. At the same time, net profitability declined, but the group managed to maintain a satisfactory level of liquidity and a low level of net debt to EBITDA.
PPC’s turnover declined in 2020, affected by the market share loss and domestic demand reduction. The reduced operating expenses and lower expenses for fuel, energy purchases and CO2 emission allowances helped PPC again become profitable from loss-making the previous year. In 2020, TERNA ENERGY had a positive performance, mainly due to the segment of renewable energy sources. GEK TERNA’s profitability performance was mixed in 2020. Sales reduced, mainly due to the segment of construction. However, the EBITDA margin rose. The trend was not maintained at the net profitability level, which was negatively affected by increased financial expenses. The pandemic and the lockdowns negatively affected the sales of COCA-COLA HBC, especially in the out-of-home channel, with a consequent impact on net profitability in 2020. Similarly, sales of HOUSEMARKET were lower because of the pandemic and lockdowns and net profits declined drastically. The increased current liabilities reduced the current ratio, which remained satisfactory, and increased the debt-to-equity ratio. The suspended shopping centres, the reduced visitor traffic after their reopening and the rent discounts pushed LAMDA DEVELOPMENT’s revenues downwards. In combination with increased expenses for the project in Hellinikon, 2020 was loss-making. At the same time, cash operating outflows were recorded. The bond loans of 2020 increased the debt-to-equity ratio and the current ratio because of enhanced cash inflows from the bond loans. Lockdowns negatively affected OPAP’s sales in 2020. However, net profitability improved, which was enhanced by revaluation gain of the participation percentage in Kaizen Gaming (Stoiximan). At the same time, current ratio decreased, inter alia, by lower trade receivables as a result of temporarily suspended business activities. DELTA TECHNIKI improved its financial performance in 2020, and its profitability continued to increase. The significantly improved equity helped the debt-to-equity ratio deflate, but it remained very high. The pandemic pushed FRIGOGLASS’ sales downwards in 2020 and losses were recorded, while negative equity expanded further. Reduced traffic volumes, as a result of the pandemic and travel restrictions, negatively affected the financial results of ATTICA HOLDINGS and AEGEAN AIRLINES, and 2020 was loss-making from profitable the previous year. Additionally, their leverage expanded. In 2020, the sales of the ELLAKTOR group declined and the already negative net profit margin expanded. The already burdened debt-to-equity ratio moved upwards due to decreased equity. Apart from the pandemic impact, lower prices of petroleum products and weaker downstream margins affected the declined revenue value of MOTOR OIL, ELPE and CORAL, recording losses in 2020 compared to the previous year. Moreover, their leverage was wider. In 2020, INTRALOT’s net losses and negative equity deepened compared to 2019. Additionally, the current ratio was worsened due to decreased cash and augmented short-term lending. 2020 was a year of lower sales and wider losses for B&F due to the negative impact of the pandemic.
Source: Piraeus Bank Research 24 Disclaimer: This document is produced by the Economic Research & Investment Strategy Department of Piraeus Bank (hereinafter “the Bank”), which is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), in collaboration with the Bank of Greece and is sent or provided to third parties, without any obligation of its author. This document or any part of it should not be duplicated in any way without the prior written consent of its author.
The information or opinions included in this document are addressed to existing or potential clients in a general manner, without taking into account the particular circumstances, the investment objectives, the financial ability, the experience and/or knowledge of the potential recipients of this document and, as a result, they do not constitute or should not be considered neither as a solicitation or offer for the conduct of transactions in financial instruments or currencies nor as a recommendation or advice for decision making in relation to those. Taking into account the aforementioned, the recipient of the information contained in this document should proceed with his/her own research, analysis, and confirmation of the information which is included in this document and seek for independent and professional legal, tax and investment advice, before proceeding with any investment decision making.
The information depicted in this document is relied on sources that the Bank considers to be reliable and is provided on an “as is” basis, however, the Bank cannot warrant as to their accuracy and completeness. The opinions and estimates herein are related to the trend of the local and international financial markets at the indicated date (prices at closing time) and are subject to changes without any prior notice. Notwithstanding the above, the Bank might include in this document investment researches, which have been conducted by third persons. In this case, the Bank does not modify those researches, but it presents them on an “as is” basis, therefore, no responsibility is assumed in relation to the content of the aforementioned investment researches. The Bank is under no duty to update the information contained in this document. Considering the above, the Bank, the members of its Board of Directors and the relevant persons assume no responsibility for the information included in the present document and/or for the outcome of any investment decisions made according to such information.
Piraeus Bank Group is an organization with a significant presence in the Greek market and an increasing one in the international markets providing a wide range of investment services. In the context of investment services offered by the Bank and/or any other Piraeus Group companies in general, there might be cases whereby conflict of interests may arise in relation to the information provided herein. Reference should be made to the fact that the Bank, the relevant persons and/or other Piraeus Group companies indicatively: Are not subject to any prohibition in relation to trading on own account or in the course of providing portfolio management services prior to the publication of this document or the acquisition of any shares prior to any public offering or the acquisition of any other securities. May offer upon remuneration investment banking services to issuers for whom this document may contain information. May participate to the issuers’ share capital or acquire other securities issued by the aforementioned issuers or attract other financial interests from them. Might provide market making or underwriting services to issuers that might be mentioned in this document. Might have published papers the content of which is different or incompatible to the information presented herein.
The Bank as well as the other Piraeus Group's companies have enacted, implement and maintain an effective policy, which prevents circumstances that may give rise to conflicts of interests and the dissemination of any information among the departments (“chinese walls”) and they also constantly comply with the provisions and regulations relevant to inside information and market abuse. Also, the Bank confirms that it doesn’t have any kind of interest or conflict of interest with a) any other legal entity or person that could have participated in the preparation of the present document and b) with any other legal entity or person that couldn’t have participated in the preparation of the present document, but had access to it before its publication.
It is duly stated that: the investments described in the present document include investment risks, among which the risk of losing the entire capital invested. In particular, it is stated that; The figures presented herein refer to the past and that the past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. In case the figures refer to simulated past performance, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The return on investments might be positively or negatively affected as a result of currency fluctuations, in case the figures are denominated in a foreign currency (other than Euro). Any forecasts in relation to future performance, may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. The tax treatment of the information as well as transactions pertained in this document, depends on each investor's individual circumstances and may be subject to change in the future. As a result, the recipient should seek for independent advice in relation to the applicable tax legislation.
The distribution of the present document outside Greece and/or to persons governed by foreign law may be subject to restrictions or prohibitions according to the applicable legislation. Therefore, the recipient of the present should seek for independent advice in relation to the applicable legislation, in order to look into such restrictions and/or prohibitions.
25