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ABSTRACT PALMER, TRISHA DENISE. The ABSTRACT PALMER, TRISHA DENISE. The Role of Land-Surface Hydrology on Small Stream Flash Flooding in Central North Carolina. (Under the direction of Dr. Sethu Raman and Kermit Keeter.) In order to determine the influence of various factors on flash flooding, six case studies during which flash flooding occurred across central North Carolina are examined: 1) 26 August 2002, 2) 11 October 2002, 3) 9-10 April 2003, 4) 16 June 2003, 5) 29 July 2003, and 6) 9 August 2003. Utilizing stream gage data from the United States Geological Survey combined with radar-estimated precipitation from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) KRAX near Clayton, NC, several statistical conclusions are drawn. These conclusions are based on relationships between the inputs – rain rate and precipitation amount – to the stream responses: the amount of time between when the stream began its rise and when the maximum stage was reached, the amount of time between the onset of precipitation and the initial response of the stream, the maximum stage reached, the change in height of the stream, and the rate of change of height of the stream. Results indicate that precipitation rate and amount tend to dominate the influence of stream response; however, in many situations, land-surface characteristics play an important role. The notable situations where precipitation rate and amount do not dominate are along the major rivers, in locations with sandy soils where infiltration is high, and in urban areas, where runoff occurs rapidly and streams thus respond quickly regardless of precipitation rate or amount. In addition, rain rate and precipitation amount do not necessarily have similar relationships with the stream response variables; rain rate has a stronger correlation with rate of change of stream rise, while precipitation amount has a stronger correlation with change in stream height. However, it is not enough to study rainfall rates and precipitation amounts if a flash flood warning is to be issued. The results of this research show that there is value and necessity in understanding the role of land-surface characteristics when determining if flash flooding is going to occur. DEDICATION This work is dedicated to my father, David Edward Brune. His tornado stories and “official” piece of paper (certification to take weather observations) instilled in me this passion for weather. His support and encouragement, along with my mother’s, to strive to be and do my best instilled in me a passion for learning. As a result, Daddy, I'm certain I'm finally allowed to be the one to look out the window and proudly proclaim that it's going to rain. I now have my share of “official” papers. ii BIOGRAPHY Trisha Denise Palmer was born 23 May 1980 in Ft. Smith, Arkansas, the third of four children of David and Cassandra Brune. They moved to the small community of Avilla just outside of Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1987, where her parents still reside with her youngest sibling. She spent most of her childhood and teenage years wondering what caused the huge tornado (retroactively classified as an F5) that devastated her father’s hometown of Ruskin Heights, Missouri, on 20 May 1957. As if that wasn’t enough to pique her interest, a large outbreak in her own backyard of central Arkansas on 1 March 1997 reinforced her decision to go into meteorology. She toured the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Little Rock and joined the Central Arkansas Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)/National Weather Association. After graduating from Bryant High School in May of 1998, she was off to the University of Oklahoma (OU) the following fall. She thoroughly enjoyed her time at OU, especially when a break in coursework allowed for a storm chase or two. She entered with several scholarships, including the Freshman Meteorology Scholarship from the OU School of Meteorology (SoM). She was involved in the OU Student Chapter of the AMS all four years, and was elected Vice President her senior year. The Oklahoma Weather Lab (OWL), a forecasting organization modeled after the National Weather Service, was founded her freshman year, and she immediately volunteered to serve on the leadership committee. By her sophomore year, she was a shift leader, and she became co-President her junior year. For her work with OWL, she was awarded an Outstanding Service Award from the SoM her junior year. She participated in the National Collegiate Weather Forecasting Competition throughout her undergraduate career and won iii both national and local awards. She graduated in May 2002 with a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology with Special Distinction and a minor in mathematics, not long after notification of being awarded an AMS graduate fellowship sponsored by the National Science Foundation. As luck would have it, a student position at WFO Little Rock opened just as she started at OU. She jumped at the opportunity, beginning in June of 1999 and working there through June of 2002. While at Little Rock, she trained on most aspects of office functions, launched weather balloons, went on storm surveys, and conducted a radar research project, not to mention several other various duties and tasks. Trisha married Joshua Palmer, also a meteorology graduate from OU, on 25 May 2002 – they had met during their second week of classes their freshman year. They made the decision to attend graduate school at North Carolina State University, and she was given the opportunity to transfer from a student position at WFO Little Rock to one at WFO Raleigh in July of 2002. They began graduate school in August 2002. In November 2003, an Intern position opened at WFO Raleigh. Trisha applied and was hired; in December 2003 her dream of obtaining a career position with the National Weather Service was accomplished. Her Master’s degree will be completed during the fall of 2004, concurrently with part of her forecaster training. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like first to thank my committee members: my advisor, Dr. Sethu Raman, for his guidance, and also for allowing me the freedom to choose a topic to assist WFO Raleigh; my NCSU members, Drs. Gary Lackmann and Al Riordan, for their assistance throughout this project; and finally Kermit Keeter, the Science and Operations Officer (SOO) at WFO Raleigh, my “technical consultant,” but so much more than that. At the State Climate Office (SCO), thanks to everyone – Maggie Puryear, Becky Eager, Mark Brooks, Matt Simpson, just to name a few. But special thanks to Robb Ellis, Pete Childs, and Ryan Boyles, who have helped me on specific projects. At the United States Geological Survey, thanks to Ramona Traynor; without her I’d never have my river data. There are so many people associated with the National Weather Service; I could never list them all. I need to especially thank Paul Jendrowski, Information Technology Officer (ITO) at WFO Blacksburg, VA, for his endless help with AMBERGIS, and for installing it here at WFO Raleigh to begin with,. At the Southeast River Forecast Center in Atlanta, GA, I need to thank Brad Gimmestad, Reggina Garza, and Tom Wallace for their help; at WFO Greenville-Spartanburg, SC, thanks to Joe Pellisier, Larry Lee, and Pat Tanner for their advice. Finally, right here at WFO Raleigh I need to thank the entire staff, for advice, support, encouragement, comic relief, basically everything that a family would do. A huge thank-you to all the operational staff, for putting up with the “tornado monger” in the corner, and for allowing me the time to research. Many thanks to Jonathan Blaes, ITO, for countless hours devoted to working with me to get AMBERGIS up and running, not to mention the other computer issues he assisted with. Mike Moneypenny and Al Lazo, thank you for v answering all of my flash flooding questions. Steve Harned, thank you for the many opportunities, and for believing in me. And of course, Kermit, I could never thank you enough, for everything you’ve done. My family and friends have supported me through everything. Especially my parents – I couldn’t have asked for more from them – throughout high school and college, they’ve been there for me every step of the way. I am the person I am today because of them, and I love them dearly. My friends, both from OU and here at NCSU, have been immensely supportive; we’ve all been through this together, and without each other it would have been far more difficult. Most of all, though, I must thank my husband, Joshua. He was there at the beginning of this academic journey, he’s supported and assisted me throughout the duration, and he’ll be there with me through our meteorological careers. His unwavering love has been more than I could have ever asked. I look forward to what life has to offer us. Computing resources at both WFO Raleigh and the SCO were essential in completing this research. This research is supported by the State Climate Office of North Carolina, a one-year AMS/National Science Foundation graduate fellowship, and a federal salary with the National Weather Service. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ...............................................x LIST OF FIGURES ............................................xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .....................................xxiv 1. INTRODUCTION ..............................................1 1.1 Motivation ............................................1 1.2 Flash Floods ..........................................3 1.3 Forecasts and Warnings ................................3 1.3.1 Parameters and Features Associated with Flash Floods ..........................................3 1.3.2 Classifications and Pattern Recognition .........6 1.3.3 Ingredients for Heavy Rainfall ..................9 1.3.4 Warnings .......................................11 1.4 Precipitation Estimation .............................13 1.4.1 Radar ..........................................13 1.4.2 Rain Gage ......................................16 1.4.3 Satellite ......................................17 1.5 Land-Surface Hydrology ...............................21 1.5.1 Infiltration ...................................21 1.5.2 Runoff .........................................22 1.6 Objective ............................................24 2.
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