A Monthly Newsletter on Food Security and Vulnerability in Uganda Number 10/2001 15 October, 2001 Summary Although only a single attack has been reported since September, civil insecurity continues in Katakwi District. Approximately 90,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) live in more than 40 settlements and many households remain moderately food insecure. The Government of Uganda is continuing mitigation activities in collaboration with local and international non-government organizations (NGOs). Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties are the most affected. The Department of Disaster Management coordinates assistance to the IDPs and is soliciting further assistance. A hiatus in attacks has enabled resumption of traffic, under military escort, on the road between Katakwi and Moroto towns. The Katakwi District administration reports increased deployment of government soldiers along the border between the two districts to boost security and reduce attacks on IDPs. High water levels have limited access and services to some parts of the districts, although there are no reports of any outbreak of water-borne diseases or increased incidence of malaria. Food security in most of the country is satisfactory. The main exception is for households in Katakwi District, where moderate food insecurity has been reported over the past several months. National food balance projections continue to indicate good food availability until the next harvest in December. The second rainy season is fully established in central, eastern, and southwestern Uganda as well as the Lake Victoria Basin, which is supporting normal crop growth and replenishing ground water reserves. Well-distributed rainfall has benefited crops for farmers who had completed sowing cereals by the end of September. Most of the maize in Iganga, Kabarole, Kasese, Masindi, and Mbale Districts has reached knee level and requires rainfall through November to ensure a good harvest. Beans are nearing the flowering stage; other pulses have also been sown. Overall, crop development is good, with no observable stress. The maize harvest in Kapchorwa District’s single long season started in late September for the low- to mid-altitude areas. As much as 50,000 MT will be produced in the district this year, half of which will be available for the market starting in early December. Favorable conditions support millet and sorghum development in other eastern districts. It is still early in the season to predict crop performance or harvest levels. Meanwhile, the first season bean harvest in northern districts started in late August and supply is expected to increase. The dry season has begun in Kotido, Moroto and Nakapiripirit Districts. Pasture and water conditions in Uganda’s major pastoral areas — mainly in northeastern and southwestern Uganda — continue to be good, enabling livestock access to fodder and water. FEWS NET has not received any new reports of significant livestock disease outbreaks. Crop prices remain affordable and supplies to regional market centers are good with no bottlenecks except in Katakwi District, where supplies remain low and market prices are higher than normal. This is limiting IDPs’ access to food from the markets. Ample supply of dry maize grain is maintaining noticeably low prices, although prices are a little higher than the all-time lows observed in July. On average, the wholesale price for dry maize grain is UShs 10,000 per 100 kg, while beans range between UShs 30,000 and 40,000. Millet and sorghum, and other pulses are also in good supply. Favorable prices enable household access to food from the market. The Lutheran World Federation (LWF) reports adequate market supplies in Moroto District out of the ongoing harvest. However, insecurity on the roads has limited interdistrict trade between Moroto and its neighboring districts, thereby threatening supply. Further, low interdistrict trade and few buyers from outside the district has lowered livestock prices in A USAID Project Managed by Chemonics International, Inc. ♦ P.O. Box 7856, Kampala, Uganda Telephone 256-41-231140 ♦ Fax: 256-41-347137 ♦ Email: [email protected] A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 10/2001 Vulnerability in Uganda, Page # 2 15 October, 2001 Moroto District. Kotido District, in the north, is also affected. Appreciation for Contributions LWF nonetheless indicates that the situation is not yet alarming. • District Agriculture and Veterinary Officials, particularly Mbarara, Kotido, and Moroto Districts Maize trade between Uganda and Kenya remains low due to • Market Information Service, IITA diminished demand in Kenya. Commercial traders in • The World Food Programme, Uganda office Kampala are buying up to 3,000 MT a day, looking to export • The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs to Southern African countries through a consortium of maize • Lutheran World Federation trading companies with the assistance of the Government of • Various NGOs Uganda. The World Food Programme is also contributing to local purchases, buying approximately 1,800 MT per week since September. This effort is reportedly responsible for improving maize prices, and is an incentive for cultivation in the current season. 1. Review of Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises There has been no significant change in the humanitarian, socioeconomic, and food security situation in Katakwi District, where civil security remains unpredictable. A single attack has been reported since mid-September. This follows a series of attacks by Karimojong warriors in the first half of the month that resulted in heavy loss of human life and property, including livestock. According to district authorities and NGOs, some livestock were recovered after Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) pursued the warriors. An estimated more than 90,000 people continue to be displaced in more than 40 settlements. Many households in the district remain moderately food insecure, with only a few able to harvest minimal crops. The attacks in early September in Katakwi District and the resulting revenge assaults on suspected Karimojong by the local population rendered the road between Katakwi and Moroto towns unusable. Normal transport on the road has not been fully reestablished; only since early October have a few vehicles and travelers started using the route under heavy military escort. To restrict influx into Katakwi District and attacks on the population by warriors from Moroto District, the Katakwi District administration reports that the Government of Uganda has increased deployment of UPDF soldiers along the border between the two districts to augment security. The government is continuing mitigation activities in Katakwi district, in collaboration with local and international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), especially in the most affected Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties. The Department of Disaster Management in the Office of the Prime Minister, which is in charge of coordinating assistance to the IDPs in Katakwi District, is requesting further assistance to mitigate food insecurity in that area. Anecdotal reports by district authorities indicate that normal to above-normal second- season rains are being observed. The high rains have maintained flooding conditions in a few places, such as in Kapelebyong, making them inaccessible and therefore limiting services to the displaced people there. Despite the water logging that favors outbreak of water-borne diseases or mosquito breeding, no significant increase in disease has been recorded to date. A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 10/2001 Vulnerability in Uganda, Page # 3 15 October, 2001 2. Current Food Security Conditions and Outlook Until The Next Harvest Household food stocks remain sufficient, enabling improved food security in most of the country. One exception is for households in Katakwi District, where moderate food insecurity has been reported over the past several months. National food balance projections continue to indicate good food availability until the next harvest in December. 3. National Trends: Hazard Information 3.1. Rainfall Conditions: Significant improvement in rainfall was observed in central, eastern, Lake Victoria Basin, and southwestern Uganda by early September as the second rainy season became fully established, providing sufficient soil water conditions to support normal crop growth and replenish ground water sources. The Uganda Department of Meteorology reported below-normal rainfall in northern districts of the country. The department projects continued decline in rainfall in northern Uganda while increased wet conditions are expected for central, Lake Victoria Basin, and southwestern regions during October. Moroto District’s Departments of Agriculture, Veterinary, and the Lutheran World Federation (LWF), an NGO active with farmer groups in Moroto District, report increasingly dry conditions as the normal dry season begins. The Meteosat images (Figure 1) illustrate the progression of rainfall in September, providing an estimate of precipitation and spatial distribution across Uganda. The estimates correlate well with ground station data, confirming predominantly wet conditions in eastern and central Uganda with drier weather in the northern parts of the country. Figure 1: Rainfall Estimates Based on Meteosat Images Current: September 2001 Normal: September Current Vs. Normal: September No Rainfall Low Rainfall Moderate Rainfall Heavy Rainfall FEWS NET/Uganda, October 2001 Source: NOAA A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security