Volume 50 • Issue 1 IMS Bulletin

January/February 2021 IMS Lectures in 2021 As you will have noticed, 2020 has been an unusual year for conferences and speakers! CONTENTS Many events that were scheduled for 2020 will now be happening in 2021 (or even 1 IMS special lectures in 2021 2022), as you can see in the calendar at the back of the Bulletin, or on the IMS website at https://imstat.org/meetings-calendar/. As a result, several of the special invited IMS 2 Members’ news : Emery Brown, Sudipto Banerjee, lectures are rescheduled to the coming year. David Banks, Qi Long, Richard Firstly, at the Seminar on Stochastic Processes (SSP), held at Lehigh University in Smith, Anuj Srivastava Bethlehem, PA, USA, from March 18–20, 2021, there will be two Medallion lectures, from Dmitri Ioffe and Alexei Borodin. See https://wordpress.lehigh.edu/ssp2021/ for 3 Journal news: Annals of Probability more information. Secondly, at the Bernoulli–IMS 10th World Congress in Probability and Statistics, 4 Jeffrey Rosenthal: Polls, rescheduled to July 19–23, 2021, in Seoul, South Korea, there will be the IMS lectures Damned Polls, and Statistics that would have been delivered in 2020. These are the Wald lectures fromMartin 5 Institute for Mathematical Barlow, the Blackwell lecture from Gábor Lugosi, and five Medallion lectures:Gérard and Statistical Innovation Ben Arous, Andrea Montanari, Elchanan Mossel, Laurent Saloff-Coste, and Daniela 8 FODS report; IMS awards; Witten. There are two IMS/BS lectures: the Doob lecture, fromNicolas Curien, and Doeblin Prize the Schramm lecture, by Omer Angel. There will also be the three 2020 Lawrence 9 COPSS–NISS webinar series Brown PhD Student Award winners, giving their talks: Didong Li, Ashwin Pananjady, and Yuqi Gu. (In addition there are five Bernoulli Society named lectures:Persi 10 XL-Files: Opinion Polling: Its Diaconis will give the Kolmogorov Lecture, Alison Etheridge the Bernoulli Lecture, secret sauce is also its spoilage source Massimilliano Gubinelli the Lévy Lecture, Tony Cai the Laplace Lecture and Sara van der Geer the Tukey Lecture.) Details are forthcoming on the WC website: https:// Student Puzzle 32 (and 14 www.wc2020.org/ (same URL as in 2020). solution to 31) Finally, the Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), held August 7–12 in Seattle, WA, 15 Recent papers: Electronic USA (https://ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2021/index.cfm), will be the venue for Journal of Probability; Electronic the remaining special invited lectures to be delivered in 2021. The 2021 Wald lecturer Communications in Probability is Jennifer Chayes, and the 2021 Le Cam Lecturer is Jianqing Fan. The Medallion lec- 20 Meetings (including online) tures will be given by Axel Munk, Robert Nowak, Philippe Rigollet, and Nancy Zhang. 22 Employment Opportunities The three 2021 Lawrence Brown PhD Student Award winners, announced in the previous issue, are Xin Bing, Ilmun Kim and Yichen Zhang; they will give their papers Calendar of Meetings 24 at a special session. The IMS Presidential Address will be shared between the current 27 Information for Advertisers President Regina Liu and her predecessor Susan Murphy. There are two more 2021 Medallion lectures, though both are planned to be delivered in 2022. Hugo Duminil-Copin will give a lecture at the 2022 meeting on Stochastic Processes and their Applications (there is no SPA meeting in 2021), in Wuhan, China, June 27–July 1, 2022. Silvia Serfaty is due to give her Medallion lecture at the 2022 IMS Annual Meeting in London, UK, June 27–30, 2022. If you are confused by this, be thankful you are not a meeting organizer during a Read it online: pandemic... and if you are organizing a meeting, thank you! imstat.org/news At the time of writing, all these meetings are planned to be in-person events, but obviously, things may change, so please check the meeting websites nearer the time! IMS Bulletin 2 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1 Volume 50 • Issue 1 January/February 2021 IMS Members’ News ISSN 1544-1881 Emery Brown wins Swartz Prize for Theoretical and Computational Neuroscience Contact information The Society for Neuroscience (SfN) has awarded its Swartz Prize for Theoretical and IMS Bulletin Editor: Tati Howell Computational Neuroscience to Emery N. Brown, Edward Hood Taplin Professor of [email protected] Medical Engineering and Computational Neuroscience at MIT. Managing Editor: Bob Keener IMS Fellow Emery Brown, who is a member of The Picower Contributing Editors: Institute for Learning and Memory and the Institute for Medical Radu Craiu, Anirban DasGupta, Yoram Gat, David Hand, Takis Konstantopou- Engineering and Science as well as the Warren M. Zapol Professor los, Xiao-Li Meng, Regina Nuzzo, Kavita at Harvard Medical School, is a neuroscientist, a statistician and Ramanan and Terry Speed a practicing anesthesiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital. Joshua Sarinana Photo: w https://imstat.org/news His research has produced principled and efficient new methods https://www.facebook.com/IMSTATI for decoding patterns of neural and brain network activity and has https://twitter.com/InstMathStat advanced neuroscientific understanding of how anesthetics affect Emery Brown the brain, which can improve patient care. IMS Dues and Subscriptions Office “Dr. Brown’s seminal scientific contributions to neural signal processing and the theory Contact the IMS regarding your dues, of anesthetic mechanisms, together with his service as an educator and a physician, make membership, subscriptions, orders or him highly deserving of the 2020 Swartz Prize,” SfN President Barry Everitt said. “Dr. change of address: Brown has demonstrated an unusually broad knowledge of neuroscience, a deep under- t 877-557-4674 [toll-free in USA] standing of theoretical and computational tools, and an uncanny ability to find explanatory t +1 216 295 2340 [international] simplicity lurking beneath complicated observational phenomena.” f +1 216 295 5661 In its announcement, the world’s largest neuroscience organization elaborated: “Brown’s e [email protected] insights and approaches have been critical to the development of some of the first models IMS Business Office estimating functional connectivity among a group of simultaneously recorded neurons,” Executive Director, Elyse Gustafson SfN’s announcement stated. “He has contributed statistical methods to analyze recordings Contact the IMS regarding any other of circadian rhythms and signal processing methods to analyze neuronal spike trains, local matter, including advertising, copyright field potentials and EEG recordings.” permission, offprint orders, copyright With regard to anesthesiology, the statement continued: “Brown has proposed that the transfer, societal matters, meetings, fellows altered arousal states produced by the principal classes of anesthetics can be characterized nominations and content of publications: by analyzing the locations of their molecular targets, along with the anatomy and physiol- t 877-557-4674 [toll-free in USA] ogy of the circuits that connect these locations. Overall, his systems neuroscience paradigm, t +1 216 295 2340 [international] supported by mechanistic modeling and cutting-edge statistical evaluation of evidence, is f +1 216 295 5661 transforming anesthesiology from an empirical, clinical practice into a principled neurosci- e [email protected] ence-based discipline.” Brown said the recognition made him thankful for the chances his research, teaching Executive Committee and medical practice have given him to work with colleagues and students. “Receiving President: Regina Liu the Swartz Prize is a great honor,” he said. “The Prize recognizes my group’s work to [email protected] characterize more accurately the properties of neural systems by developing and applying President-Elect: Krzysztof (Chris) Burdzy statistical methods and signal processing algorithms that capture their dynamical features. [email protected] It further recognizes our efforts to uncover the neurophysiological mechanisms of how Past President: Susan Murphy anesthetics work and to translate those insights into new practices for managing patients [email protected] receiving anesthesia care. Finally, receipt of the Swartz Prize makes me eternally grateful for Treasurer: Zhengjun Zhang the outstanding colleagues, graduate students, post-docs, undergraduates, research assistants [email protected] and staff, with whom I have had the good fortune to work.” Program Secretary: Ming Yuan [email protected] The prize, which includes $30,000, was awarded during SfN’s Awards Announcement Executive Secretary: Edsel Peña Week in October. [email protected] = access published papers online

IMS Journals and Publications January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 3 Annals of Statistics: Ming Yuan, Richard Samworth https://imstat.org/aos https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aos Annals of Applied Statistics: Karen Kafadar https://imstat.org/aoas More Members’ News https://projecteuclid.org/aoas Annals of Probability: Amir Dembo https://imstat.org/aop American Association for the Advancement of Science elects new Fellows https://projecteuclid.org/aop Nearly 500 members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science have Annals of Applied Probability: Francois Delarue, Friz earned the lifetime distinction of AAAS Fellow. AAAS Fellows are elected each year by their https://imstat.org/aap https://projecteuclid.org/aoap peers serving on the Council of AAAS, the organization’s member-run governing body. Statistical Science: Sonia Petrone The title recognizes important contributions to STEM disciplines, including https://imstat.org/sts pioneering research, leadership within a given field, teaching and https://projecteuclid.org/ss IMS Collections mentoring, fostering collaborations, and advancing public under- https://projecteuclid.org/imsc standing of science. IMS Monographs and IMS Textbooks: Nancy Reid A virtual induction ceremony for the 489 newly elected Fellows https://www.imstat.org/journals-and- publications/ims-monographs/ will take place on Feb. 13, 2021, the Saturday following the AAAS Annual Meeting. The honorees will receive, by mail, official IMS Co-sponsored Journals and Publications certificates and rosette pins [pictured left] in gold and blue, colors that Electronic Journal of Statistics: Domenico Marinucci symbolize science and engineering. https://imstat.org/ejs Fellows are elected in different subject sections. In the Section on Information, https://projecteuclid.org/ejs Computing and Communication there was one IMS member: Anuj Srivastava, Electronic Journal of Probability: Andreas Kyprianou https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ejp State University. Anuj was elected “For distinguished contributions to the field of statistical Electronic Communications in Probability: pattern recognition, particularly for development of differential geometric approaches to Giambattista Giacomin https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ecp statistical shape analysis.” Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics: In the Section on Statistics, there were four IMS members/Fellows. Tyler McCormick https://www.amstat.org/ASA/ Sudipto Banerjee, University of California, Los Angeles: For innovative contributions Publications/Journals.aspx log into members' area at imstat.org to Bayesian methodology with focus on spatially indexed information, for high-impact Statistics Surveys: David Banks applications, for educational and mentoring excellence, professional service and academic https://imstat.org/ss administration. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ssu David L. Banks, Duke University: For leadership at the Statistical and Applied Probability Surveys: Ben Hambly https://imstat.org/ps Mathematical Sciences Institute, research on risk analysis, and editorial service. https://www.i-journals.org/ps/ Qi Long, University of Pennsylvania: For distinguished contributions to analysis of IMS-Supported Journals incomplete data, causal inference and analysis of big data for advancing precision health. ALEA: Latin American Journal of Probability and Richard L. Smith, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill: For distinguished Statistics: Roberto Imbuzeiro Oliveira contributions to statistics, particularly the statistical analysis of extreme events and environ- http://alea.impa.br/english Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré (B): Grégory mental applications including climate change and air pollution. Miermont, Christophe Sabot https://imstat.org/aihp https://projecteuclid.org/aihp Bayesian Analysis: Michele Guindani Annals of Probability News https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba The three-year term of the Annals of Probability editor, Amir Dembo, ends December 31, Bernoulli: Mark Podolskij, Markus Reiß 2020. The IMS Committee to Select Editors recommended the appointment ofAlice https://www.bernoulli-society.org/ https://projecteuclid.org/bj Guionnet Christophe Garban and as co- Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics: editors of the journal, from January 1, 2021 Enrico Colosimo to December 31, 2023. Alice Guionnet is a https://imstat.org/bjps https://projecteuclid.org/bjps CNRS Research Director at the ENS Lyon, France. Her web page is http://perso.ens- IMS-Affiliated Journals lyon.fr/aguionne/. Observational Studies: Dylan Small Christophe Garban is a https://obsstudies.org/ Professor at Université Lyon. His web page Probability and Mathematical Statistics: K. Bogdan, is http://math.univ-lyon1.fr/~garban/. You M. Musiela, J. Rosiński, W. Szczotka, & W.A. Woyczyński http://www.math.uni.wroc.pl/~pms/ can read the Annals of Probability online at Stochastic Systems: Shane Henderson https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aop. https://pubsonline.informs.org/journal/stsy 4 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

Polls, Damned Polls, and Statistics

Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, University of Toronto, polling companies compute their margin of margin as 4% instead of 2%, and failed only writes: In the recent U.S. presidential elec- error. Easy, right? because they predicted narrow wins in sev- tion, public opinion polls indicated that Joe However, this answer requires the eral states which ended up as narrow losses. Biden would defeat handily. assumption, either implicit or explicit, Even their 2020 forecasts correctly predicted His actual victory was much tighter than that the sample was drawn uniformly at the winner (Biden) and most of the states expected — a popular vote margin about random. But suppose it wasn’t. Suppose the that he eventually won, albeit with excessive half of the predicted 8–10%, and narrow question instead said: the sample was drawn spreads. These outcomes, achieved under victories in states he was supposed to carry using an unknown, arbitrary scheme. Then impossible circumstances, are worthy of easily. These errors, amplified by the delayed it is no longer easy. In fact, it is now com- statisticians’ praise, not scorn. count of certain pro-Biden mail-in ballots, pletely impossible! Any statistics instructor Bias-correction efforts for polls raise and intensified by many people’s hatred assigning such a question would face an many interesting statistical questions. of Trump, led to howls of protest that the angry student revolt. Which population covariates are relevant, polls had betrayed us and could never be And yet, this second version is essen- and how should samples be re-weighted trusted again. tially what confronts pollsters. Sure, they to match them? How should past election Some of the complaints came from phone people randomly, but most people results be incorporated into forecasting statisticians themselves. One colleague do not answer (Pew Research reports that models to increase accuracy? Can other wondered what was possibly left to say their response rates have declined to just kinds of sampling, from online panels to about polls, now that their inaccuracies had 6%). If the non-respondents were missing social media scraping to intercepted web been so exposed. Another leaned in con- at random, then they would be of little browsers, replace or supplement traditional spiratorially and whispered, “I would like to consequence (aside from requiring more random phone calls to produce better data? talk to a pollster after a few drinks, to find phone call attempts), and the usual confi- These questions should intrigue statisticians, out what really happened.” They felt a sense dence intervals would still apply. But what not depress them. of shame, and saw the unreliable polls as if they’re not? One statistics instructor recently a harsh and public repudiation of the very In fact, response rates do appear to enthused that the Trump/Biden polling concept of random sampling upon which so be increasingly correlated with voting errors were an actual, real-life example of much of statistics is based. preferences, for reasons that remain unclear. sampling bias in action. I didn’t particularly Having published a successful general- Perhaps Trump supporters were less inclined share the amazement, since sampling bias interest book, Struck by Lightning: The to reveal their preferences to “elite” poll- is all around us and easy to find. But I do Curious World of Probabilities, I am often sters, or were harder to reach due to work agree with the sentiment. High-profile asked about polls by news media and vari- responsibilities, or were less likely to follow missed forecasts provide compelling ways ous organizations, so I have had to confront COVID-19 safety protocols which would to teach our students the importance of these issues head on. And I have come to make them be home and available? All we statistical assumptions, as well as new think that we should regard high-profile know is that somehow, Trump supporters opportunities to investigate innovative ways polling errors not as a failure, but as an were significantly underrepresented in to overcome their limitations. Inaccurate opportunity. pre-election polls, in both 2016 and 2020. polls should fill statisticians not with shame, Consider a typical statistics exam ques- And all of the efforts to re-weight the poll but with excitement. tion: An urn contains N balls of different samples to match general population covari- colors. A sample of n balls is taken, of ates such as race, age, gender, and education n which exactly /2 are red. Compute a 95% level, still failed to overcome these biases. confidence interval for the fraction of red Despite these challenges, poll results balls in the urn. Every statistician knows the haven’t actually been that far off. They answer to this question. The sample pro- accurately predicted the 2018 U.S. midterm portion is pˆ = 0.5, so if 1 ≪ n ≪ N, then the elections, and the 2008 and 2012 presi- interval has endpoints pˆ ± 1.96 √pˆ(1−pˆ)/n dential elections. In 2016, they just slightly = 0.5 ± 0.98/√n. Indeed, that is how most overestimated Hillary Clinton’s popular vote January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 5

IMSI: A new NSF-funded institute

Douglas Simpson was appointed as the Associate Director of the Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) on August 1, 2020. He has been a faculty member of the Department of Statistics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign since 1985, serving as chair of the department from 2000–19. In addition, he served as director of the department’s statistical consulting center 1995–2000. His research areas include applied and computational statistics, robust statistical methods, machine learning, and functional data methodology for quantitative image analysis. He was a recipient of an NSF Mathematical Sciences Postdoctoral Research Fellowship. He has served on NSF review panels and as a regular member of the NIH Biostatistical Methods and Research Design study group. He is a fellow of IMS, ASA, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Together with the IMSI’s Director Kevin Corlette and scientific adviser Panagiotis Souganidis, he writes:

The IMS community is acutely aware that interactions with other disciplines have enriched and strengthened the core math- ematical science disciplines. Furthermore, many are involved in application areas that pose novel challenges to the mathematical sciences. IMSI intends to accelerate progress on these problems by The Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (IMSI) bringing together powerful teams of cross-disciplinary researchers is a new mathematical sciences research institute funded by the for focused efforts to advance both the application and our field. National Science Foundation (NSF). This institute is located Participation of IMS members in IMSI programs will be crucial to at The University of Chicago and managed in partnership with success in these endeavors. Northwestern University, the University of Illinois at Chicago, The focus on applications is driven by an understanding that and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. It is the the mathematical sciences are woven inextricably into the fabric newest member of the portfolio of institutes funded by the of the wider enterprise of research, science, and technology. If the Division of Mathematical Sciences, joining the American Institute mathematical sciences are to thrive, they must do so as part of that of Mathematics (AIM), School of Mathematics at the Institute wider enterprise. for Advanced Study (IAS), Institute for Computational and While mathematical tools and insights have always been Experimental Research in Mathematics (ICERM), Institute crucial to research in other disciplines, their usefulness has been for Pure and Applied Mathematics (IPAM), Mathematical broadening and intensifying. The National Academies’ report The Sciences Research Institute (MSRI), and Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences in 2025 noted the mathematical sciences are Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI). becoming “an increasingly integral and The mission of IMSI is to apply rigor- IMSI Boards essential component of a growing array of ous mathematics and statistics to urgent, areas of investigation” and went on to argue complex scientific and societal problems The statistics and probability that “the mathematical sciences have an and to spur transformational change in the communities are represented: among exciting opportunity to solidify their role as mathematical sciences and mathematical the Board of Trustees (https://www. a linchpin of twenty-first century research sciences community. imsi.institute/board-of-trustees/) and technology” through a transformation A distinctive feature of the new institute is T. Tony Cai and Patrick Wolfe; into a discipline with “much broader reach is the organization of programs around the Scientific Advisory Committee and greater potential impact.” IMSI aims to longer-term scientific themes in key areas of (https://www.imsi.institute/scientific- be a catalyst for this kind of transformation application, with the application areas driv- advisory-committee/) includes Alicia of the mathematical sciences. ing new mathematics and statistics. The aim Carriquiry, René Carmona, Amir An important dimension of the poten- is to enable sustained, ongoing advances in Dembo, Larry Hedges and Rebecca tial impact of the mathematical sciences is both the substantive area and mathematical Willett. its capacity to bring insight to challenges sciences. that arise, often with urgency, for society. Continues on page 7 The Institute of Mathematical Statistics presents IMS TEXTBOOKS

Computational Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction M. Antónia Amaral Turkman, Carlos Daniel Paulino, and Peter Müller

Meaningful use of advanced Bayesian methods requires a good understanding of the fundamentals. This engaging book explains the ideas that underpin the construction and analysis of Bayesian models, with particular focus on computational methods and schemes. The unique features of the text are the extensive discussion of available software packages, combined with a brief but complete and mathematically rigorous introduction to Bayesian inference. The text introduces Monte Carlo methods, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and Bayesian software, with additional material on model validation and comparison, trans-dimensional MCMC, and conditionally Gaussian models. The inclusion of problems makes the book suitable as a textbook for a first graduate-level course in Bayesian computation with a focus on Monte Carlo methods. Hardback $105.00 The extensive discussion of Bayesian software — R/R-INLA, OpenBUGS, JAGS, STAN, Paperback $39.99 and BayesX — makes it useful also for researchers and graduate students from beyond statistics. IMS members are entitled to a 40% “This book aims to be a concise introduction to modern computational Bayesian discount: email statistics, and it certainly succeeds! The authors carefully introduce every [email protected] main technique that is around and demonstrate its use with the appropriate to request software. Additionally, the book contains a readable introduction to Bayesian your code methods, and brings the reader up to speed within the field in no time!” Håvard Rue, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia

www.imstat.org/cup

Cambridge University Press, with the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, established the IMS Monographs and IMS Textbooks series of high-quality books. The series editors are Nancy Reid (Coordinating Editor, 2018–2021), Ramon van Handel (Probability, 2018–2021), Arnaud Doucet (Algorithms, 2020–2023) and Xuming He (Statistics, 2017–2020). January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 7

IMSI continued

Examples include the problem of modeling the spread of COVID- This last point highlights another element of the mission: 19 and its interactions with social distancing policies, the economy, the transformation of the mathematical sciences community. and various forms of infrastructure; the problem of modeling cli- The Mathematical Sciences in 2025 report pointed to benefits mate and the effects of climate change on the conditions that make that would accrue to the mathematical sciences if more of its life on earth possible; and the power of ideas and techniques from practitioners had an understanding of the general landscape of the artificial intelligence and machine learning to transform human mathematical sciences beyond their areas of expertise; the ability society, both for good and ill. to communicate and collaborate across disciplinary boundaries; a These are challenges in which the mathematical sciences can better understanding of the role of the mathematical sciences in make a difference and which, in many cases, demand all hands on other disciplines; and more experience with computation. IMSI deck. Responding to these challenges is an essential part of realizing aims to offer researchers opportunities to develop these qualities the full potential impact of the mathematical sciences. It is also more fully and thereby catalyze the development of a new breed crucial to the health and diversity of the mathematical sciences of interdisciplinary mathematical scientist through boot camps, community: We are less likely to attract new talent to the field if internships, research programs of various lengths, and training in the field remains on the sidelines in the face of urgent challenges. communication across disciplines. The long-term scientific themes will evolve over time, but only on relatively long timescales of a decade or more. There are six Upcoming IMSI Workshops in 2021 initial themes for IMSI: climate science; data and information; health and medical care; materials science; quantum computing Mathematical and Computational Materials Science and information; and uncertainty quantification. (February 15–19): https://www.imsi.institute/materials- Scientific activity at IMSI will take a variety of forms, including science/ the following: Confronting Climate Change (March 1–5): https://www. • Long programs, typically three months in length, which bring a imsi.institute/confronting-climate-change-2/ large interdisciplinary group of researchers together for a period of sustained focus on an area that seems ripe for progress The Multifaceted Complexity of Machine Learning (April • Workshops, either standalone or attached to a long program, of 12–16): https://www.imsi.institute/the-multifaceted- up to a week in length complexity-of-machine-learning/ • Interdisciplinary research clusters in which small interdisciplin- Topological Data Analysis (April 26–30): https://www.imsi. ary teams collaborate on promising projects institute/topological-data-analysis/ • Research collaboration workshops in which teams of senior and junior researchers work on problems over several months, with Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification the work brought to completion in a concluding workshop. Across Disciplines (May 10–14): https://www.imsi.institute/ These activities are expected to fall within the scope of IMSI’s verification-validation-and-uncertainty-quantification- scientific themes, except for possibly standalone workshops, which across-disciplines/ can be used to explore a wider range of territory. Decision Making in Health and Medical Care: Modeling This academic year is a ramp-up year for IMSI, and the research and Optimization (May 17–21): https://www.imsi.institute/ activity will primarily take the form of workshops. We expect to decision-making-health-medical/ host (either virtually or in person) eight workshops [see box, left]. We plan to follow what we expect will be a more typical sched- Quantum Information for Mathematics, Economics, and ule in 2021–2022 with long programs: Distributed Solutions to Statistics (May 24–28): https://www.imsi.institute/quantum- Complex Societal Problems in the fall and Decision Making and information/ Uncertainty in the spring. Applications for participation in these Eliciting Structure in Genomics Data (August 30 – programs, as well as for associated tutorial programs in the summer September 3): https://www.imsi.institute/eliciting-structure- of 2021, are open. See https://www.imsi.institute/programs/ for in-genomics-data/ more details and how to apply. 8 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

Meeting report: FODS-2020

David Madigan writes: The Association of Computing Machinery and the IMS have formed a joint venture to bring together researchers and practitioners to address foundational data science challenges in prediction, inference, fairness, ethics and the future of data science. Following the successful Interdisciplinary Summit on the Foundations of Data Science [https://www.acm.org/data-science-summit] that took place in San Francisco in 2019, we decided to launch an annual refereed conference series starting with the 2020 ACM–IMS Foundations of Data Science Conference [https://fods.acm.org/]. The conference, co-chaired by Jeannette Wing from Columbia University and David Madigan from Northeastern University took place virtually on October 19th and 20th. The conference received 57 submissions and the 40-person program committee accepted 17 papers for plenary presentation and inclusion in the conference proceed- ings. The conference also featured two keynote speakers — Mihaela van der Schaar from the University of Cambridge and UCLA, and Oren Etzioni from the Allen AI Institute — and two tutorial presenters — David Blei from Columbia University and Michael Kearns from the University of Pennsylvania. The conference proceedings are available in the ACM Digital Library:https://dl.acm.org/doi/proceedings/10.1145/3412815 . In light of the pandemic, we are now planning for FODS-2022 and look forward to an annual conference thereafter.

Nominations for IMS awards Doeblin Prize Please consider nominating your outstanding colleagues and collaborators for these IMS awards. Candidates for IMS Fellowship shall have demonstrated distinction in research Nike Sun awarded 2020 Doeblin Prize in statistics or probability, by publication of independent work of merit, and should be Nike Sun, associate professor of mathe- IMS members when nominated. The deadline for nominating isJanuary 31, 2021. See matics at the Massachusetts Institute of https://www.imstat.org/honored-ims-fellows/nominations-for-ims-fellow/. Nominations Technology, has been awarded the 2020 are also invited for the Carver Medal, created by the IMS in honor of Harry C. Carver, Wolfgang Doeblin Prize, awarded every for exceptional service specifically to the IMS. Nominate byFebruary 1, 2021. Please other year by the Bernoulli Society. The visit https://www.imstat.org/ims-awards/harry-c-carver-medal/. prize is awarded to a single individual for outstanding research in the field of proba- Early-career Travel Awards bility, and who is at the beginning of their The IMS Hannan Graduate Student Travel Award funds travel and registration to attend mathematical career. (and possibly present a paper/poster at) an IMS sponsored or co-sponsored meeting. Nike’s research interest is at the inter- This travel award is available to IMS members who are graduate (Masters/PhD) students section of probability, statistical physics, studying some area of statistical science or probability. If you are a New Researcher and theory of computing. She completed (awarded your PhD in 2016–20) looking for travel funds, you should apply for the IMS BA (mathematics) and MA (statistics) New Researcher Travel Award to fund travel, and possibly other expenses, to present degrees at Harvard in 2009, and an MA St a paper or a poster at an IMS sponsored or co-sponsored meeting (not the IMS New in mathematics at Cambridge in 2010. She Researcher’s Conference, that’s funded separately). See https://www.imstat.org/ims- received her PhD in statistics from Stanford awards/ for application details. The deadline for both isFebruary 1, 2021. University in 2014 under the supervision of Amir Dembo. After the doctorate she Real-life applications… held a Schramm fellowship at Microsoft New England and MIT Mathematics in 2014–2015 and a Simons postdoctoral fellowship at Berkeley in 2016, and joined the Berkeley Statistics Department as an Assistant Professor in 2016, and moved to MIT in 2018. She received (with Jian Ding) the 2017 Rollo Davidson Prize and an NSF

http://www.mooselakecartoons.com CAREER award in 2019. January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 9

New COPSS–NISS webinar series

Inaugural COPSS–NISS Webinar on the accelerated vaccine development program. Statistics of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Next, he focused on the current design pro- “standing-room only” tocols of the clinical trials taking place and Glenn Johnson from NISS reports: How the associated analysis of relative risk and many people are interested in understand- relevant endpoints of these designs. This ing and interpreting findings of the early led to a discussion of the results reported Presenter David Benkeser, moderator Natalie Dean, and results of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials? by Pfizer, Moderna and other clinical discussant Betz Halloran Lots! How many people can you get into a trials. In wrapping up his remarks, David webinar? More than you think! Nearly emphasized the importance of vaccine cor- posed. But remember, this was only the first 650 people logged into the Zoom webinar relates as they relate to identifying possible of many webinar sessions to come that will session that featured three distinguished surrogate endpoints for future vaccine trials follow up on these and additional topics individuals who are living in the thick of and understanding how these correlates related to statistics and COVID-19. this research. This session featured David might reliably predict vaccine efficacy in Want to learn more? Mark your calen- Benkeser (Assistant Professor, Department new populations who have thus far been dar for every first and third Thursday in of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins excluded from research, such as children the month, from noon to 1 pm ET. (See School of Public Health, ) and pregnant women. https://www.niss.org/events for event as speaker, M. Elizabeth (Betz) Halloran David’s presentation was followed by details and to register for these sessions!) (Professor and Director of the Biostatistics, discussant Betz Halloran, both on this topic You can find a recording of this Bioinformatics, and Program, generally and regarding points made by the session, along with a link to the slides Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, speaker. She emphasized the huge amount that the speaker used, at https://www. Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center of thought and effort that statisticians are niss.org/news/inaugural-copss-niss- and Professor, Department of Biostatistics, putting into harmonizing trials, the exciting webinar-statistics-covid-19-vaccine- ) as discussant, work that is being done with regards to trials-%E2%80%98standing-room- and Natalie Dean (Assistant Professor, correlates of risk and protection across plat- only%E2%80%99. The slides not only Department of Biostatistics, University of forms, as well as mentioning the WHO’s provide you with the key points that were Florida) as moderator. Solidarity Trial platform that would involve offered but also include links to additional The session was opened by Xihong Lin several vaccines in a protocols that would resources that should not be ignored! (), chair of the organiz- share a placebo group. Betz also stressed the ing committee for this new twice-a-month importance of randomization and blinding About this Webinar Series webinar series that aims to share the latest and the issues that will likely arise, if the The COPSS–NISS COVID-19 Data research regarding new understandings and vaccines are highly effective, and involve Science webinar series is co-organized analyses of COVID-19 pandemic data as a these core principles of conducting trials. by the Committee of the Presidents of means to promote data-driven research and She also raised the challenges of estimating Statistical Societies (COPSS) and its five decision-making to combat COVID-19. the effect of the vaccines on reducing charter member societies (ASA, ENAR, This new series of webinars is co-organized infectiousness. IMS, SSC, and WNAR), as well as NISS. by the Committee of the Presidents of Perhaps the most interesting part of the This bi-monthly (i.e. twice a month) Statistical Societies (COPSS) and its five session was the reaction, interpretations webinar features the latest research that is charter member societies (ASA, ENAR, and perspectives provided by both panelists positioned on the cusp of new understand- IMS, SSC, and WNAR), as well as NISS. and moderator Natalie Dean, who fielded ing and analysis of COVID-19 pandemic Led by the remarks of David Benkeser, questions posed by the attendees at the data, and promotes data-driven research and this session took a deep dive into the session. Natalie certainly had her hands full! decision making to combat COVID-19. design and analysis of COVID-19 vaccine Even with the considerable about of time Find out more about this series and view all trials, with a focus on Phase 3 efficacy given to Q&A, it became clear that there the previous sessions on the Webinar Series trials. David first walked through a quick was not nearly enough time to answer all of page: https://www.niss.org/copss-niss- overview of “Operation Warp Speed,” the the thought-provoking questions that were covid-19-data-science-webinar-series. 10 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

Opinion Polling: Its Secret Sauce is also its Spoilage Source

isi-s-135th-anniversary). It took nearly To understand these terms intuitively, half a century for the idea to gain general let’s continue to enjoy soup. The flavoring acceptance. of a soup containing only salt would be The statistical theory for polling might much easier to discern than a Chinese soup be hard to digest for many, but the general with five spices. Problem difficulty measures idea of representative sampling is much the complexity of the soup, regardless of more palatable. In a newspaper story about how we stir it or the spoon size. Data quan- Gallup Poll going to Canada (Ottawa tity index captures the spoon size, relative Photo: Harvard University Citizen, Nov 27, 1941: https://news. to the size of the cooking container. This Xiao-Li Meng writes: google.com/newspapers?nid=2194&dat= shift of emphasis from only the sample size n On November 6, 2020, I woke up to a 19411127&id=l-0uAAAAIBAJ&sjid=VtsFAAA n to the sample fraction /N, which depends flood (for a statistician) of tweets about AIBAJ&pg=4887,5489739&hl=en), Gregory critically on the population size N, is the my 2018 article, “Statistical Paradises and Clark wrote, key to LLP. Paradoxes in Big Data (I): Law of Large The most critical index and also the “When a cook wants to taste the soup to Populations, Big Data Paradox, and the hardest one to assess is the data quality, a see how it is coming, he doesn’t have to 2016 US Presidential Election” (https:// measure of the lack of thorough stirring. drink the whole boilerful. Nor does he take statistics.fas.harvard.edu/files/statistics-2/ Imagine some spice clumps did not dissolve a spoonful off the top, then a bit from the files/statistical_paradises_and_paradoxes. completely in the cooking, and if they have middle, and some from the bottom. He pdf). A kind soul had offered it as an expla- more chance of getting caught by the cook’s stirs the whole cauldron thoroughly. Then nation to the question: “What’s wrong with spoon, then what the cook tastes is likely stirs it some more. And then he tastes it. polls?”, which led to the article going viral. to be spicier than the soup actually is. For That is how the Gallup Poll works.” As much as I was flattered by the atten- polling, if people who prefer candidate B tion, I was disappointed that no one had The “secret sauce” for polling, therefore, over A are more (or less) likely to provide asked “Why would anyone expect polls to is thorough stirring. Once a soup is stirred their opinions, than the polling will be right in the first place?” A poll typically thoroughly, any part of it becomes represen- samples a few hundred or thousand people, tative of the entire soup. And that makes but it aims to learn about a population it possible to sample a spoonful or two to many times larger. For predicting the US assess reliably the flavor and texture of the presidential election, conducting a poll of soup, regardless of the size of its container. size n=5,000 to learn about the opinions of Polling achieves this “thorough stirring” via N=230 million (eligible) voters is the same random sampling, which creates, statisti- as asking just about 2 people out of every cally speaking, a miniature that mimics the 100,000 voters on average. Isn’t it absurd to population. expect to learn anything reliably about so But this secret sauce is also the source many from opinions of so few? of spoilage. My 2018 article shows how Indeed when Anders Kiær, the founder to mathematically quantify the lack of of Statistics Norway, proposed the idea to thorough stirring, and demonstrates how replace a national census by “representative a seemingly minor violation of thorough samples” during the 1895 World Congress stirring can cause astonishingly large dam- of the International Statistical Institute age due to the “Law of Large Populations” (ISI), the reactions “were violent and (LLP: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/insight/ Kiær’s proposals were refused almost unan- events/the-law-of-large-populations/). imously!” as noted by former ISI President It also reveals that the polling error is the Jean-Louis Bodin (https://www.isi-web. product of three indexes: data quality, data org/news-featured/20200-celebrating- quantity, and problem difficulty. January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 11

over- (or under-) predict the vote shares As an illustration of this impact, my tend to balance out when we increase the for B. This tendency can be measured by article calculated how much statistical accu- sample size, but systematic selection bias the correlation — let’s denote it by racy was reduced by |r|=0.005. Opinions only solidifies when sample size increases. r — between preferring B and responding from 2.3 million responses (about 1% of Worse, the selection bias is magnified by the (honestly) to the poll. The higher the value the eligible voting population in 2016) with population size: the larger the population, of |r| (the magnitude of r), the larger the |r|=0.005 has the same expected polling the larger the magnification. That is the polling error. A positive r indicates overesti- error as that resulting from 400 responses essence of LLP. mation, and a negative r underestimation. in a genuinely random sample. This is a When a particular bit of soup finds itself The whole idea of stirring thoroughly or 99.98% reduction of the actual sample sizes, on the cook’s spoon, it cannot say, “Well, random sampling is to ensure r is negligible, an astonishing loss by any standard. A qual- I’m a bit too salty for the cook, so let me or technically, to ensure it is on the order ity poll of size 400 still can deliver reliable jump off this spoon!” But in an opinion of the reciprocal of the square-root of N. predictions, but no (qualified) campaign poll, there is nothing to stop someone Statistically, this is as small as it can be manager would stop campaigning because from opting out because of the fear of the since we have to allow some sampling ran- a poll of size 400 predicts winning. But (perceived) consequences of revealing a domness. For example, for N=230 million, they may (and indeed some did) stop when particular answer. Until our society knows |r| should be less than 1 out of 15,000. the winning prediction is from 2.3 million how to remove such fear, or the pollsters However, for the 2016 election polling, r responses, which amount to 2,300 polls and can routinely and reliably adjust for such was -0.005, or about 1 out of 200 in mag- each with 1,000 responses. selective responses, we can all be wiser nitude for predicting Trump’s vote shares, What was generally overlooked in citizens of the digital age by always taking as estimated in my article (based on polls 2016, and unfortunately again in 2020 polling results with a healthy grain of salt. carried out by YouGov). Whereas a half a (but see this Harvard Data Science Review percent correlation seems tiny, its impact is article https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/ Originally published by Scientific American, December 6, 2020: magnified greatly when multiplied by the cnxbwum6/release/2), is the devastating https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-secret-sauce- square-root of N. impact of LLP. Statistical sampling errors in-opinion-polling-can-also-be-a-source-of-spoilage/ 12 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1 January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 13 14 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

Student Puzzle Corner 32

Puzzle Editor Anirban DasGupta sets a problem on maximum likelihood estimation in a sports Student members of IMS are invited to scenario. Between two badminton players A and B, player B has a probability p1 = p of returning a serve or a shot from A, and A has a probability p = cp of returning a serve or shot from B, where c submit solutions to 2 [email protected] is a fixed positive constant. We make the usual independence assumption among shots. If A fails to (with subject “Student return a shot or a serve from B, the next serve is made by B, and vice versa. We also assume that the Puzzle Corner”). beginning serve in any play is always done successfully. Suppose A begins the first play by serving to The names of student B. In 5 consecutive plays, the total number of shots successfully returned by the players before the members who submit first failure were: 8, 7, 0, 5, 9. correct solutions, and a) Calculate the likelihood function. the answer, will be Deadline: February 1, 2021 published in the issue b) Find the maximum likelihood estimate of p. following the deadline. The Puzzle Editor is c) Take p1 and p2 to be general. A serves to B in the first play and B successfully returns the serve. But A fails to return this volley from B. The serve now turns Anirban DasGupta. His over to B, and A is able to return the serve. But B fails to return the volley decision is final. from A. And so it goes on, for a total of n plays — in other words, the number of shots successfully returned is always 1. What will

happen to the MLEs of p1 and p2 in this scenario?

Solution to Puzzle 31 Student Puzzle Editor Anirban DasGupta Imagine a particle conducting a walk on the traditional square lattice, writes: Our respondent Raimundo Julian starting at the origin (0, 0). That is, at any time during the walk, the Saona Urmeneta (Institute of Science and particle goes one unit distance to either the east, or the west, or the Technology Austria) has done a lovely and north, or the south. An n-walk is a walk that has taken n steps. The complete job of solving the previous puzzle. walk is called self-avoiding if the particle does not visit any given Congratulations to Raimundo. We are state twice. Let f(n) denote the number of n-walks that are self- Raimundo Saona's clear publishing his answer [right] as an example avoiding. and complete answer is published below. of clarity and completeness. (a) Compute f(n) for n = 2, 3, and justify how you got these values. The self-avoiding walk problem is For n=2, the only non self-avoiding paths are those that return to the origin, which are incredibly diverse. Limited to the case of only 4. Then, f(2) = 42 − 4 = 12. For n = 3, the first two steps of the walk must be a self- the square lattice as in this puzzle, it is avoiding path itself. Then, the third step has three possibilities. Therefore, f(3) = 3f(2) = 36. obvious that log f(n) is subadditive, so it (b) Compute f(4) if you can, or place it within good lower and upper bounds. follows that f(n)1/n converges to some pos- Of all self-avoiding 3-walks, there are only 8 that can complete a square by adding a fourth itive number μ. This is classic and appears step, leaving only 2 possibilities to complete a 4-walk. All other self-avoiding 3-walks have to have been already noted in Hammersley 3 possibilities for a fourth step. Therefore, f(4) = 3(f(3) − 8) + 2(8) = 84 + 16 = 100. and Morton’s 1954 JRSS(B) article. In fact, (c) Give non-trivial lower and upper bounds on f(n) of the form ck n for c > 0 and k ∈ℕ. a pointwise inequality holds that is of some f(n) ≤ 4 · 3n−1 = 4/3 3n, because there are 4 initial directions and each next step has at most 3 use in numerically approximating μ; one has possibilities. f(n) ≥ 4 ·(2 · 2n−1 −1) = 4 · 2n −4, because there are 4 initial directions and then f(n)≥ μn pointwise in n. A reasonable ratio- using either (i) the same initial direction, or (ii) a perpendicular direction, will result in a nal approximation to the value of μ is 8/3. self-avoiding walk. This counting procedure repeats the four paths that uses one direction A delightful reference that you will only, therefore we must correct the counting by subtracting 4.

enjoy is Gordon Slade’s survey article in the These bounds mean that for all N natural numbers, there exists a constant cN > 0 such that n Princeton Companion to Mathematics. f(n) ≥ cN · 2 and limN→∞ cN = 4. January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 15

Recent papers: Electronic Journal of Probability

The Electronic Journal of Probability (EJP) publishes full-length research articles in probability theory. Short papers should be submitted first to its sister journal, Electronic Communications in Probability (ECP). EJP and ECP share the same editorial board, but with different Editors in Chief. EJP and ECP are open access official journals of IMS and the Bernoulli Society. Donations to the IMS Open Access Fund help to keep the journal free: https://www.imstat.org/shop/donation/. Read it at https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ejp

Volume 25: 2020 (up to mid-December) The Poincaré inequality and quadratic transportation-variance inequalities ...... YUAN LIU; #1, 16 PP. An Itô type formula for the additive stochastic heat equation CARLO BELLINGERI; #2, 52 PP. The coin-turning walk and its scaling limit JÁNOS ENGLÄNDER, STANISLAV VOLKOV, AND ZHENHUA WANG; #3, 38 PP. The symbiotic contact process ...... RICK DURRETT AND DONG YAO; #4, 21 PP. On the peaks of a stochastic heat equation on a sphere with a large radius ...... WEICONG SU; #5, 38 PP. On the construction of measure-valued dual processes ...... LAURENT MICLO; #6, 64 PP. Exponential inequalities for dependent V-statistics via random Fourier features ...... YANDI SHEN, FANG HAN, AND DANIELA WITTEN; #7, 18 PP. Finitary coding for the sub-critical Ising model with finite expected coding volume ...... YINON SPINKA; #8, 27 PP. Are random permutations spherically uniform? ...... MICHAEL D. PERLMAN; #9, 26 PP. The stochastic Cauchy problem driven by a cylindrical Lévy process UMESH KUMAR AND MARKUS RIEDLE; #10, 26 PP. Infinite stable looptrees ...... ELEANOR ARCHER; #11, 48 PP. Exact rate of convergence of the expected W2 distance between the empirical and true Gaussian distribution ...... PHILIPPE BERTHET AND JEAN CLAUDE FORT; #12, 16 PP. Percolation in majority dynamics GIDEON AMIR AND RANGEL BALDASSO; #13, 18 PP. Large deviations for the largest eigenvalue of the sum of two random matrices ...... ALICE GUIONNET AND MYLÈNE MAÏDA; #14, 24 PP. Cut-off phenomenon for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by Lévy processes ...... GERARDO BARRERA AND JUAN CARLOS PARDO; #15, 33 PP. Existence of (Markovian) solutions to martingale problems associated with Lévy-type operators ...... FRANZISKA KÜHN; #16, 26 PP. Local bounds for stochastic reaction diffusion equations AUGUSTIN MOINAT AND HENDRIK WEBER; #17, 26 PP. A support theorem for SLE curves ...... HUY TRAN AND YIZHENG YUAN; #18, 18 PP. Functional inequalities for weighted Gamma distribution on the space of finite measures ...... FENG-YU WANG; #19, 27 PP. Concentration of information content for convex measures ...... MATTHIEU FRADELIZI, JIANGE LI, AND MOKSHAY MADIMAN; #20, 22 PP. Solving mean field rough differential equations ISMAËL BAILLEUL, RÉMI CATELLIER, AND FRANÇOIS DELARUE; #21, 51 PP. Uniform Hanson-Wright type concentration inequalities for unbounded entries via the entropy method ...... YEGOR KLOCHKOV AND NIKITA ZHIVOTOVSKIY; #22, 30 PP. Extending the Parisi formula along a Hamilton-Jacobi equation ...... JEAN-CHRISTOPHE MOURRAT AND DMITRY PANCHENKO; #23, 17 PP. Characterization of fully coupled FBSDE in terms of portfolio optimization SAMUEL DRAPEAU, PENG LUO, AND DEWEN XIONG; #24, 26 PP. Moderate deviations and extinction of an epidemic ...... ETIENNE PARDOUX; #25, 27 PP. A new approach to large deviations for the Ginzburg-Landau model ...... SAYAN BANERJEE, AMARJIT BUDHIRAJA, AND MICHAEL PERLMUTTER; #26, 51 PP. The seed bank coalescent with simultaneous switching ...... JOCHEN BLATH, ADRIÁN GONZÁLEZ CASANOVA, NOEMI KURT, AND MAITE WILKE-BERENGUER; #27, 21 PP. Free energy of multiple systems of spherical spin glasses with constrained overlaps JUSTIN KO; #28, 34 PP. Modulus of continuity for polymer fluctuations and weight profiles in Poissonian last passage percolation ...... ALAN HAMMOND AND SOURAV SARKAR; #29, 38 PP. Scaling limit of sub-ballistic 1D random walk among biased conductances: a story of wells and walls QUENTIN BERGER AND MICHELE SALVI; #30, 43 PP. A Berry–Esseén theorem for partial sums of functionals of heavy-tailed moving averages ...... ANDREAS BASSE-O’CONNOR, MARK PODOLSKIJ, AND CHRISTOPH THÄLE; #31, 31 PP. Thick points of random walk and the Gaussian free field ANTOINE JEGO; #32, 39 PP. Random walks in random hypergeometric environment ...... TAL ORENSHTEIN AND CHRISTOPHE SABOT; #33, 21 PP. Rough linear PDE’s with discontinuous coefficients – existence of solutions via regularization by fractional Brownian motion ...... TORSTEIN NILSSEN; #34, 33 PP. Nonlinear diffusion equations with nonlinear gradient noise ...... KONSTANTINOS DAREIOTIS AND BENJAMIN GESS; #35, 43 PP. Semimartingales on duals of nuclear spaces ...... CHRISTIAN A. FONSECA-MORA; #36, 24 PP. Exponential functionals of Markov additive processes ...... ANITA BEHME AND APOSTOLOS SIDERIS; #37, 25 PP. A stochastic sewing lemma and applications ...... KHOA LÊ; #38, 55 PP. Homogenisation for anisotropic kinetic random motions ...... PIERRE PERRUCHAUD; #39, 26 PP. Continues on page 16 16 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

Optimal lower bounds on hitting probabilities for stochastic heat equations in spatial dimension k≥1 ROBERT C. DALANG AND FEI PU; #40, 31 PP. One-dimensional diffusion processes with moving membrane: partial reflection in combination with jump-like exit of process from membrane ...... BOHDAN KOPYTKO AND ROMAN SHEVCHUK; #41, 21 PP. Stabilization of DLA in a wedge ...... EVIATAR B. PROCACCIA, RON ROSENTHAL, AND YUAN ZHANG; #42, 22 PP. Stationary distributions of the multi-type ASEP ...... JAMES B. MARTIN; #43, 41 PP. Weak symmetries of stochastic differential equations driven by semimartingales with jumps . . . SERGIO ALBEVERIO, FRANCESCO DE VECCHI, PAOLA MORANDO, & STEFANIA UGOLINI; #44, 34 PP. Existence of a unique quasi-stationary distribution in stochastic reaction networks ...... MADS CHRISTIAN HANSEN AND WIUF CARSTEN; #45, 30 PP. Large deviations for configurations generated by Gibbs distributions with energy functionals consisting of singular interaction and weakly confining potentials PAUL DUPUIS, VAIOS LASCHOS, AND KAVITA RAMANAN; #46, 41 PP. Universality for critical heavy-tailed network models: Metric structure of maximal components SHANKAR BHAMIDI, SOUVIK DHARA, REMCO VAN DER HOFSTAD & SANCHAYAN SEN; #47, 57 PP. Averaging Gaussian functionals DAVID NUALART AND GUANGQU ZHENG; #48, 54 PP. The frog model on non-amenable trees ...... MARCUS MICHELEN AND JOSH ROSENBERG; #49, 16 PP. Stochastic partial integral-differential equations with divergence terms ...... CHI HONG WONG, XUE YANG, AND JING ZHANG; #50, 22 PP. Compactness and continuity properties for a Lévy process at a two-sided exit time ...... ROSS A. MALLER AND DAVID M. MASON; #51, 26 PP. Transience of conditioned walks on the plane: encounters and speed of escape ...... SERGUEI POPOV, LEONARDO T. ROLLA, AND DANIEL UNGARETTI; #52, 23 PP. Leaves on the line and in the plane ...... MATHEW D. PENROSE; #53, 40 PP. Divide and color representations for threshold Gaussian and stable vectors ...... MALIN P. FORSSTRÖM AND JEFFREY E. STEIF; #54, 45 PP. Exponential and Laplace approximation for occupation statistics of branching random walk EROL A. PEKÖZ, ADRIAN RÖLLIN, AND NATHAN ROSS; #55, 22 PP. Kingman’s coalescent with erosion ...... FÉLIX FOUTEL-RODIER, AMAURY LAMBERT, AND EMMANUEL SCHERTZER; #56, 33 PP. Rescaling the spatial Lambda-Fleming-Viot process and convergence to super-Brownian motion ...... J. THEODORE COX AND EDWIN A. ; #57, 56 PP. On hydrodynamic limits of Young diagrams ...... IBRAHIM FATKULLIN, SUNDER SETHURAMAN, AND JIANFEI XUE; #58, 44 PP. On consecutive values of random completely multiplicative functions ...... JOSEPH NAJNUDEL; #59, 28 PP. Restriction of 3D arithmetic Laplace eigenfunctions to a plane ...... RICCARDO W. MAFFUCCI; #60, 17 PP. Recursive tree processes and the mean-field limit of stochastic flows TIBOR MACH, ANJA STURM, AND JAN M. SWART; #61, 63 PP. Sub-exponential convergence to equilibrium for Gaussian driven Stochastic Differential Equations with semi-contractive drift . . . . . FABIEN PANLOUP AND ALEXANDRE RICHARD; #62, 43 PP. Stability of overshoots of zero mean random walks ALEKSANDAR MIJATOVIĆ AND VLADISLAV VYSOTSKY; #63, 22 PP. Vertices with fixed outdegrees in large Galton-Watson trees ...... PAUL THÉVENIN; #64, 25 PP. Level-set percolation of the Gaussian free field on regular graphs I: regular trees ANGELO ABÄCHERLI AND JIŘÍ ČERNÝ; #65, 24 PP. KPZ equation tails for general initial data IVAN CORWIN AND PROMIT GHOSAL; #66, 38 PP. A decorated tree approach to random permutations in substitution-closed classes JACOPO BORGA, MATHILDE BOUVEL, VALENTIN FÉRAY, AND BENEDIKT STUFLER; #67, 52 PP. Extensive condensation in a model of preferential attachment with fitness ...... NIC FREEMAN AND JONATHAN JORDAN; #68, 42 PP. Stationary solutions of damped stochastic 2-dimensional Euler’s equation ...... FRANCESCO GROTTO; #69, 24 PP. Effect of microscopic pausing time distributions on the dynamical limit shapes for random Young diagrams AKIHITO HORA; #70, 21 PP. The speed of the tagged particle in the exclusion process on Galton–Watson trees ...... NINA GANTERT AND DOMINIK SCHMID; #71, 27 PP. Moments of discrete orthogonal polynomial ensembles PHILIP COHEN, FABIO DEELAN CUNDEN, AND NEIL O’CONNELL; #72, 19 PP. Attracting random walks ...... JULIA GAUDIO AND YURY POLYANSKIY; #73, 31 PP. Regularization lemmas and convergence in total variation ...... VLAD BALLY, LUCIA CARAMELLINO, AND GUILLAUME POLY; #74, 20 PP. Quenched tail estimate for the random walk in random scenery and in random layered conductance II ...... JEAN-DOMINIQUE DEUSCHEL AND RYOKI FUKUSHIMA; #75, 28 PP. Hydrodynamic limit of a (2+1)-dimensional crystal growth model in the anisotropic KPZ class VINCENT LEROUVILLOIS; #76, 35 PP. Exponential growth and continuous phase transitions for the contact process on trees ...... XIANGYING HUANG; #77, 21 PP. BBS invariant measures with independent soliton components ...... PABLO A. FERRARI AND DAVIDE GABRIELLI; #78, 26 PP. Convergence to scale-invariant Poisson processes and applications in Dickman approximation ...... CHINMOY BHATTACHARJEE AND ILYA MOLCHANOV; #79, 20 PP. The contact process with dynamic edges on Z AMITAI LINKER AND DANIEL REMENIK; #80, 21 PP. Long paths in first passage percolation on the complete graph I. Local PWIT dynamics . . . MAREN ECKHOFF, JESSE GOODMAN, REMCO VAN DER HOFSTAD, AND FRANCESCA R. NARDI; #81, 45 PP. On the regularisation of the noise for the Euler-Maruyama scheme with irregular drift ...... KONSTANTINOS DAREIOTIS AND MÁTÉ GERENCSÉR; #82, 18 PP. UST branches, martingales, and multiple SLE(2) ...... ALEX KARRILA; #83, 37 PP. Hyperbolic scaling limit of non-equilibrium fluctuations for a weakly anharmonic chain ...... LU XU; #84, 40 PP. Coalescence estimates for the corner growth model with exponential weights ...... TIMO SEPPÄLÄINEN AND XIAO SHEN; #85, 31 PP. Continues on page 17 January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 17

Central limit theorems for non-symmetric random walks on nilpotent covering graphs: Part I SATOSHI ISHIWATA, HIROSHI KAWABI, AND RYUYA NAMBA; #86, 46 PP. The infinite two-sided loop-erased random walk GREGORY F. LAWLER; #87, 42 PP. Analysis of an Adaptive Biasing Force method based on self-interacting dynamics MICHEL BENAÏM, CHARLES-EDOUARD BRÉHIER, AND PIERRE MONMARCHÉ; #88, 28 PP. Mixing of the square plaquette model on a critical length scale ...... PAUL CHLEBOUN AND AARON SMITH; #89, 53 PP. Propagation of chaos and moderate interaction for a piecewise deterministic system of geometrically enriched particles ...... ANTOINE DIEZ; #90, 38 PP. Central moment inequalities using Stein’s method ...... A.D. BARBOUR, NATHAN ROSS, AND YUTING WEN; #91, 21 PP. The Pareto record frontier ...... JAMES ALLEN FILL AND DANIEL Q. NAIMAN; #92, 24 PP. Smoothness and monotonicity of the excursion set density of planar Gaussian fields ...... DMITRY BELIAEV, MICHAEL MCAULEY, AND STEPHEN MUIRHEAD; #93, 37 PP. Functional inequalities for forward and backward diffusions ...... DANIEL BARTL AND LUDOVIC TANGPI; #94, 22 PP. On uniqueness of solutions to martingale problems — counterexamples and sufficient criteria ...... JAN KALLSEN AND PAUL KRÜHNER; #95, 33 PP. ε-strong simulation of the convex minorants of stable processes and meanders ...... JORGE I. GONZÁLEZ CÁZARES, ALEKSANDAR MIJATOVIĆ, AND GERÓNIMO URIBE BRAVO; #96, 33 PP. Radial processes for sub-Riemannian Brownian motions and applications FABRICE BAUDOIN, ERLEND GRONG, KAZUMASA KUWADA, ROBERT NEEL, AND ANTON THALMAIER; #97, 17 PP. Bargmann-Fock percolation is noise sensitive ...... CHRISTOPHE GARBAN AND HUGO VANNEUVILLE; #98, 20 PP. Second order backward SDE with random terminal time ...... YIQING LIN, ZHENJIE REN, NIZAR TOUZI, AND JUNJIAN YANG; #99, 43 PP. On the local pairing behavior of critical points and roots of random polynomials ...... SEAN O’ROURKE AND NOAH WILLIAMS; #100, 68 PP. Overcoming the curse of dimensionality in the approximative pricing of financial derivatives with default risks ...... MARTIN HUTZENTHALER, ARNULF JENTZEN, AND VON WURSTEMBERGER WURSTEMBERGER; #101, 73 PP. Large deviations of radial SLE∞ ...... MORRIS ANG, MINJAE PARK, AND YILIN WANG; #102, 13 PP. Time-reversal of coalescing diffusive flows and weak convergence of localized disturbance flows JAMES BELL; #103, 38 PP. On the maximal offspring in a subcritical branching process ...... BENEDIKT STUFLER; #104, 62 PP. How long is the convex minorant of a one-dimensional random walk? ...... GEROLD ALSMEYER, ZAKHAR KABLUCHKO, ALEXANDER MARYNYCH, AND VLADISLAV VYSOTSKY; #105, 22 PP. On the boundary local time measure of super-Brownian motion JIELIANG HONG; #106, 66 PP. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the finiteness of the second moment of the measure of level sets ...... JEAN-MARC AZAÏS AND JOSÉ R. LEÓN; #107, 15 PP. Representations of the Vertex Reinforced Jump Process as a mixture of Markov processes on Zd and infinite trees THOMAS GERARD; #108, 45 PP. Continuity and strict positivity of the multi-layer extension of the stochastic heat equation ...... CHIN HANG LUN AND JON WARREN; #109, 41 PP. Interacting diffusions on sparse graphs: hydrodynamics from local weak limits ROBERTO I. OLIVEIRA, GUILHERME H. REIS, AND LUCAS M. STOLERMAN; #110, 35 PP. Large deviations for interacting particle systems: joint mean-field and small-noise limit ...... CARLO ORRIERI; #111, 44 PP. A type of globally solvable BSDEs with triangularly quadratic generators PENG LUO; #112, 23 PP. Zooming-in on a Lévy process: failure to observe threshold exceedance over a dense grid ...... KRZYSZTOF BISEWSKI AND JEVGENIJS IVANOVS; #113, 33 PP. PushTASEP in inhomogeneous space ...... LEONID PETROV; #114, 25 PP. Fractional extreme distributions ...... LOTFI BOUDABSA, THOMAS SIMON, AND PIERRE VALLOIS; #115, 20 PP. Sharp asymptotics for Fredholm Pfaffians related to interacting particle systems and random matrices ...... WILL FITZGERALD, ROGER TRIBE, AND OLEG ZABORONSKI; #116, 15 PP. Limit theorems for integrated trawl processes with symmetric Lévy bases ANNA TALARCZYK AND ŁUKASZ TRESZCZOTKO; #117, 24 PP. A polynomial upper bound for the mixing time of edge rotations on planar maps ...... ALESSANDRA CARACENI; #118, 30 PP. Large deviations for sticky Brownian motions ...... GUILLAUME BARRAQUAND AND MARK RYCHNOVSKY; #119, 52 PP. Rescaling limits of the spatial Lambda-Fleming-Viot process with selection ALISON M. ETHERIDGE, AMANDINE VÉBER, AND FENG YU; #120, 89 PP. Large deviations of empirical measures of diffusions in weighted topologies ...... GRÉGOIRE FERRÉ AND GABRIEL STOLTZ; #121, 52 PP. Analysis of a stratified Kraichnan flow JINGYU HUANG AND DAVAR KHOSHNEVISAN; #122, 67 PP. On intermediate levels of nested occupancy scheme in random environment generated by stick-breaking I . DARIUSZ BURACZEWSKI, BOHDAN DOVGAY, AND ALEXANDER IKSANOV; #123, 24 PP. Rayleigh Random Flights on the Poisson line SIRSN ...... WILFRID S. KENDALL; #124, 36 PP. Exponential ergodicity for general continuous-state nonlinear branching processes ...... PEI-SEN LI AND JIAN WANG; #125, 25 PP. Asymptotic behavior of branching diffusion processes in periodic media PRATIMA HEBBAR, LEONID KORALOV, AND JAMES NOLEN; #126, 40 PP. The L2 boundedness condition in nonamenable percolation ...... TOM HUTCHCROFT; #127, 27 PP. Concentration inequalities for functionals of Poisson cylinder processes ...... ANASTAS BACI, CARINA BETKEN, ANNA GUSAKOVA, AND CHRISTOPH THÄLE; #128, 27 PP. Critical scaling for an anisotropic percolation system on \Z2 ...... THOMAS MOUNTFORD, MARIA EULÁLIA VARES, AND HAO XUE; #129, 44 PP. Level-set percolation of the Gaussian free field on regular graphs II: finite expanders ...... ANGELO ABÄCHERLI AND JIŘÍ ČERNÝ; #130, 39 PP. Exchangeable hierarchies and mass-structure of weighted real trees ...... NOAH FORMAN; #131, 28 PP. Stein’s method via induction ...... LOUIS H.Y. CHEN, LARRY GOLDSTEIN, AND ADRIAN RÖLLIN; #132, 49 PP. Continues on page 18 18 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

Diffusions on a space of interval partitions: construction from marked Lévy processes ...... NOAH FORMAN, SOUMIK PAL, DOUGLAS RIZZOLO, AND MATTHIAS WINKEL; #133, 46 PP. The exponential resolvent of a Markov process and large deviations for Markov processes via Hamilton-Jacobi equations ...... RICHARD C. KRAAIJ; #134, 39 PP. Scaling limit of triangulations of polygons ...... MARIE ALBENQUE, NINA HOLDEN, AND XIN SUN; #135, 43 PP. A new family of one dimensional martingale couplings ...... B. JOURDAIN AND W. MARGHERITI; #136, 50 PP. Hölder regularity and gradient estimates for SDEs driven by cylindrical α-stable processes ...... ZHEN-QING CHEN, ZIMO HAO, AND XICHENG ZHANG; #137, 23 PP. Symmetric simple exclusion process in dynamic environment: hydrodynamics ...... FRANK REDIG, ELLEN SAADA, AND FEDERICO SAU; #138, 47 PP. Recurrence of direct products of diffusion processes in random media having zero potentials ...... DAEHONG KIM AND SEIICHIRO KUSUOKA; #139, 18 PP. Recent papers: Electronic Communications in Probability Electronic Communications in Probability (ECP) is also an open access IMS/Bernoulli Society official journal. Read the journal online at https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ecp

Volume 25: 2020 (up to mid-December) Load balancing under d-thinning ...... OHAD NOY FELDHEIM AND JIANGE LI; #1, 13 PP.

Vanishing of the anchored isoperimetric profile in bond percolation atp c RAPHAËL CERF AND BARBARA DEMBIN; #2, 7 PP. Strong Feller property and continuous dependence on initial data for one-dimensional stochastic differential equations with Hölder continuous coefficients HUA ZHANG; #3, 10 PP. Characterising random partitions by random colouring ...... JAKOB E. BJÖRNBERG, CÉCILE MAILLER, PETER MÖRTERS, AND DANIEL UELTSCHI; #4, 12 PP. The remainder in the renewal theorem ...... RON DONEY; #5, 8 PP. Practical criteria for R-positive recurrence of unbounded semigroups ...... NICOLAS CHAMPAGNAT AND DENIS VILLEMONAIS; #6, 11 PP. Small deviations in log-normal Mandelbrot cascades ...... MIIKA NIKULA; #7, 12 PP. Generalized scale functions of standard processes with no positive jumps ...... KEI NOBA; #8, 12 PP. 4 Gradient estimates and maximal dissipativity for the Kolmogorov operator in Φ2 GIUSEPPE DA PRATO AND ARNAUD DEBUSSCHE; #9, 16 PP. A remark on the smallest singular value of powers of Gaussian matrices ...... HAN HUANG AND KONSTANTIN TIKHOMIROV; #10, 8 PP. A note on costs minimization with stochastic target constraints ...... YAN DOLINSKY, BENJAMIN GOTTESMAN, AND GUREL-GUREVICH ORI; #11, 12 PP. Occupation densities of ensembles of branching random walks ...... STEVEN P. LALLEY AND SI TANG; #12, 13 PP. Distributional analysis of the extra-clustering model with uniformly generated phylogenetic trees ...... MICHAEL FUCHS, CHIH-HONG LEE, AND ARIEL R. PANINGBATAN; #13, 13 PP. Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions KRZYSZTOF BURDZY AND JIM PITMAN; #14, 12 PP. A quantitative McDiarmid’s inequality for geometrically ergodic Markov chains ANTOINE HAVET, MATTHIEU LERASLE, ERIC MOULINES, AND ELODIE VERNET; #15, 11 PP. Large deviations related to the law of the iterated logarithm for Itô diffusions STEFAN GERHOLD AND CHRISTOPH GERSTENECKER; #16, 11 PP. Pivotality versus noise stability for monotone transitive functions ...... PÁL GALICZA; #17, 6 PP. Weak monotone rearrangement on the line ...... JULIO BACKHOFF-VERAGUAS, MATHIAS BEIGLBÖCK, AND GUDMUND PAMMER; #18, 16 PP. A rotor configuration with maximum escape rate SWEE HONG CHAN; #19, 5 PP. Remarks on Gross’ technique for obtaining a conformal Skorohod embedding of planar Brownian motion MAHER BOUDABRA AND GREG MARKOWSKY; #20, 13 PP. A ratio inequality for nonnegative martingales and their differential subordinates ...... ADAM OSĘKOWSKI; #21, 12 PP. Coexistence in chase-escape ...... RICK DURRETT, MATTHEW JUNGE, AND SI TANG; #22, 14 PP. V-geometrical ergodicity of Markov kernels via finite-rank approximations ...... LOÏC HERVÉ AND JAMES LEDOUX; #23, 12 PP. The contact process on periodic trees ...... XIANGYING HUANG AND RICK DURRETT; #24, 12 PP. Phase transitions for chase-escape models on Poisson–Gilbert graphs ALEXANDER HINSEN, BENEDIKT JAHNEL, ELIE CALI, AND JEAN-PHILIPPE WARY; #25, 14 PP. Coexistence in a random growth model with competition SHANE TURNBULL AND AMANDA TURNER; #26, 14 PP. Donsker’s theorem in Wasserstein-1 distance ...... LAURE COUTIN AND LAURENT DECREUSEFOND; #27, 13 PP. On the central limit theorem for the two-sided descent statistics in Coxeter groups ...... VALENTIN FÉRAY; #28, 6 PP. Extensions of Brownian motion to a family of Grushin-type singularities UGO BOSCAIN AND ROBERT W. NEEL; #29, 12 PP. Probabilistic interpretation of HJB equations by the representation theorem for generators of BSDEs ...... LISHUN XIAO, SHENGJUN FAN, AND DEJIAN TIAN; #30, 10 PP. Erratum: Practical criteria for R-positive recurrence of unbounded semigroups NICOLAS CHAMPAGNAT AND DENIS VILLEMONAIS; #31, 2 PP. Continues on page 19 January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 19

On Absence of disorder chaos for spin glasses on d LOUIS-PIERRE ARGUIN AND JACK HANSON; #32, 12 PP. Stability for Hawkes processes with inhibition ...... MADS BONDE RAAD AND EVA LÖCHERBACH; #33, 9 PP. ℤ Anchored isoperimetric profile of the infinite cluster in supercritical bond percolation is Lipschitz continuous BARBARA DEMBIN; #34, 13 PP. Polynomial rate of convergence to the Yaglom limit for Brownian motion with drift ...... WILLIAM OÇAFRAIN; #35, 12 PP. New asymptotics for the mean number of zeros of random trigonometric polynomials with strongly dependent Gaussian coefficients ...... PAUTREL THIBAULT; #36, 13 PP. On the volume of the shrinking branching Brownian sausage ...... MEHMET ÖZ; #37, 12 PP. Metrics on sets of interval partitions with diversity ...... NOAH FORMAN, SOUMIK PAL, DOUGLAS RIZZOLO, AND MATTHIAS WINKEL; #38, 16 PP. A martingale approach for Pólya urn processes ...... LUCILE LAULIN; #39, 13 PP. On the CLT for additive functionals of Markov chains ...... MAGDA PELIGRAD; #40, 10 PP. Lower large deviations for geometric functionals ...... CHRISTIAN HIRSCH, BENEDIKT JAHNEL, AND ANDRÁS TÓBIÁS; #41, 12 PP. Conformal Skorokhod embeddings and related extremal problems ...... PHANUEL MARIANO AND HUGO PANZO; #42, 11 PP. Analyticity for rapidly determined properties of Poisson Galton–Watson trees ...... YUVAL AND ANDREW SWAN; #43, 8 PP. Killed rough super-Brownian motion ...... TOMMASO CORNELIS ROSATI; #44, 12 PP. A coupling proof of convex ordering for compound distributions JEAN BÉRARD AND NICOLAS JUILLET; #45, 9 PP. Integration by parts formulae for the laws of Bessel bridges via hypergeometric functions ...... HENRI ELAD ALTMAN; #46, 11 PP. A lower bound for point-to-point connection probabilities in critical percolation ...... J. VAN DEN BERG AND H. DON; #47, 9 PP. Intermittency for the parabolic Anderson model of Skorohod type driven by a rough noise NICHOLAS MA, DAVID NUALART, AND PANQIU XIA; #48, 10 PP. On the strict value of the non-linear optimal stopping problem ...... MIRYANA GRIGOROVA, PETER IMKELLER, YOUSSEF OUKNINE, AND MARIE-CLAIRE QUENEZ; #49, 9 PP. The initial set in the frog model is irrelevant ...... MARIA DEIJFEN AND SEBASTIAN ROSENGRENÏ; #50, 7 PP. Asymptotics of Schur functions on almost staircase partitions ...... ZHONGYANG LI; #51, 13 PP. On the long-time behaviour of McKean-Vlasov paths ...... K. BASHIRI; #52, 14 PP. Exponential filter stability via Dobrushin’s coefficient CURTIS MCDONALD AND SERDAR YÜKSEL; #53, 13 PP. Central limit theorems on compact metric spaces STEVEN ROSENBERG AND JIE XU; #54, 10 PP. d Chen–Stein method for the uncovered set of random walk on n for d≥3 ...... PERLA SOUSI AND SAM THOMAS; #55, 11 PP. Law of the iterated logarithm for a random Dirichlet series ...... MARCO AYMONE, SUSANA FRÓMETA, AND RICARDO MISTURINI; #56, 14 PP. ℤ A product of invariant random permutations has the same small cycle structure as uniform ...... SLIM KAMMOUN KAMMOUN AND MYLÈNE MAÏDA; #57, 14 PP. Green kernel asymptotics for two-dimensional random walks under random conductances ...... SEBASTIAN ANDRES, JEAN-DOMINIQUE DEUSCHEL, AND MARTIN SLOWIK; #58, 14 PP. Note on the (non-)smoothness of discrete time value functions in optimal stopping SÖREN CHRISTENSEN AND SIMON FISCHER; #59, 10 PP. Mixing time for the Repeated Balls into Bins dynamics NICOLETTA CANCRINI AND GUSTAVO POSTA; #60, 14 PP. Internal DLA on cylinder graphs: fluctuations and mixing ...... VITTORIA SILVESTRI; #61, 14 PP. Stability of doubly-intractable distributions ...... MICHAEL HABECK, DANIEL RUDOLF, AND BJÖRN SPRUNGK; #62, 13 PP. On the independence number of some random trees ...... SVANTE JANSON; #63, 14 PP. The continuum parabolic Anderson model with a half-Laplacian and periodic noise ALEXANDER DUNLAP; #64, 14 PP. The speed of a biased random walk on a Galton-Watson tree is analytic ...... ADAM BOWDITCH AND YUKI TOKUSHIGE; #65, 11 PP. On the completion of Skorokhod space ...... MIKHAIL LIFSHITS AND VLADISLAV VYSOTSKY; #66, 10 PP. Markov process representation of semigroups whose generators include negative rates ...... FLORIAN VÖLLERING; #67, 7 PP. Non-explosion by Stratonovich noise for ODEs MARIO MAURELLI; #68, 10 PP. A solvable class of renewal processes ...... NATHANAËL ENRIQUEZ AND NATHAN NOIRY; #69, 14 PP. Large deviations for the largest eigenvalues and eigenvectors of spiked Gaussian random matrices GIULIO BIROLI AND ALICE GUIONNET; #70, 13 PP. Krein condition and the Hilbert transform ...... MARCOS LÓPEZ-GARCÍA; #71, 7 PP. Large deviations for the maximum of a branching random walk with stretched exponential tails ...... PIOTR DYSZEWSKI, NINA GANTERT, AND THOMAS HÖFELSAUER; #72, 13 PP. Feller coupling of cycles of permutations and Poisson spacings in inhomogeneous Bernoulli trials ...... JOSEPH NAJNUDEL AND JIM PITMAN; #73, 11 PP. Optimal exponent for coalescence of finite geodesics in exponential last passage percolation ...... LINGFU ZHANG; #74, 14 PP.

Diffusions on a space of interval partitions: construction from Bertoin’s BES0(d), d∈(0,1) ...... MATTHIAS WINKEL; #75, 13 PP. Hydrodynamic limit for a d-dimensional open symmetric exclusion process ZHENGYE ZHOU; #76, 8 PP.ABSTRACT ENHANCED PDF An entropic proof of cutoff on Ramanujan graphs NARUTAKA OZAWA; #77, 8 PP.ABSTRACT ENHANCED PDF A universal approach to matching marginals and sums ...... ROBERT GRIFFITHS AND KAIS HAMZA; #78, 12 PP. 20 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

IMS meetings around the world Joint Statistical Meetings: 2021–2026 At a glance: IMS sponsored meeting forthcoming UPDATED JSM 2021 August 7–12, 2021. Seattle, USA. IMS Annual w https://ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2021/ Meeting and The theme of the 2021 JSM is “Statistics, Data, and the Stories JSM dates They Tell.” Registration and housing open May 3, 2021. The early registration deadline is May 31. Propose a topic-contributed session for JSM 2021! Topic-contributed sessions are a great way to bring speakers together to present about a shared 2021 topic, so if you have a great idea for a JSM session, see https://ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2021/submissions. IMS Annual Meeting @ cfm. There is only room for a limited number of these sessions, so note the deadline for proposals is December 10. JSM: Seattle, August 7–12, 2021 IMS sponsored meetings: JSM dates for 2022–2026 2022 Joint Statistical IMS Annual Meeting JSM 2024 IMS Annual Meeting JSM 2026 2022 Meetings @ JSM 2023 August 3–8, 2024 @ JSM 2025 August 1–6, 2026 IMS Annual Meeting: August 6–11, 2022 August 5–10, 2023 Portland, Oregon, August 2–7, 2025 Boston, MA, USA London, UK, June Washington DC Toronto, Canada USA Nashville, TN, USA 27–30, 2022

Seminar on Stochastic Processes (SSP) 2021 2022 IMS Annual Meeting JSM: Washington March 17–20, 2021 June 27–30, 2022, London, UK DC, August 6–11, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA w TBA 2022 w https://wordpress.lehigh.edu/ssp2021/ Mark your calendars for the 2022 IMS At SSP2021, apart from informal presentations by conference Annual Meeting. Held in London imme- 2023 participants, there will be plenary talks by Alexei Borodin, Jennifer diately before COLT, with extra workshop IMS Annual Meeting Chayes, Tadahisa Funaki, Dmitry Ioffe, Sarah Penington, and planned [see announcement below]. Program @ JSM: Toronto, Makiko Sasada (Alexei and Dmitry are IMS Medallion lecturers). and Local Chair: Qiwei Yao. August 5–10, The main conference will be held on March 18–20, 2021; on 2023 March 17, there will be a special set of tutorial lectures by Greg 2022 IMS–COLT Joint Workshop Lawler and discussions targeted at early-career researchers. July 1, 2022 Travel funding: We expect this conference will be supported London, UK 2024 with funds to allow reimbursement of travel expenses. Graduate w https://bguedj.github.io/colt-ims-2022. IMS Annual Meeting/ students, early-career researchers, women, and members of under- github.io/ 11th World Congress: represented groups are especially encouraged to register and apply The 2022 IMS Annual Meeting [see Bochum, Germany, for funds. Applications will be accepted soon on the conference announcement above] will be immediately August 12–16, website, and should be received by end of January, 2021 for first followed by the first IMS–COLT joint 2024 consideration. workshop, a one-day meeting in a hybrid JSM: Portland, OR, SSP 2021 is currently planned to be held in-person, with format (on-site in central London, and August 3–8, 2024 suitable COVID-19 precautions, to the extent possible given the online), linking the IMS and COLT evolving public health situation. Remote conference participation communities of researchers. (COLT is the options will be implemented as appropriate. annual Conference on Learning Theory, 2025 Further information on funding, accommodations, conference and will take place in 2022 immediately IMS Annual Meeting @ participation modalities, and other details, including the online after this IMS–COLT workshop day.) JSM: Nashville, TN, registration form, will be available soon on the website. Committee: Benjamin Guedj (chair), Peter USA, August 2–7, Grünwald, Susan Murphy. 2025 January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 21

More IMS meetings around the world

These IMS sponsored or co-sponsored One World ABC Seminar: Ongoing and online meetings are rearranged. Please check for w https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/news/upcoming-seminars/abcworldseminar updates. Inspired by the “One World Probability Seminar”, in April 2020 we decided to run the One World Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) Seminar, a fortnightly series of AWAITING NEW DATES: seminars that will take place via Zoom on Thursdays at 11.30am [UK time]. The idea is 7th Bayes, Fiducial and Frequentist Statistics to gather members and disseminate results and innovation during these weeks and months Conference (BFF7) under lockdown. Register to receive the webinar link via email. So if you are interested in http://www.fields.utoronto.ca/ the ABC world seminar and would like to hear from us fortnightly about the announced activities/20-21/BFF7 speaker, title and abstract and, most importantly, be able to join the talk, please register at the website above. WNAR/IMS/KISS/JR Annual Meeting The organizers are welcoming proposals for future talks. This webinar is part of the http://www.wnar.org/ larger One World seminar initiative, which gathers seminars in applied mathematics and data sciences. [See below for One World Probability Seminar] 8th Workshop on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics One World Probability Seminar (OWPS): Ongoing and online https://math.gsu.edu/ w https://www.owprobability.org/ yichuan/2020Workshop/ The short-term goal of the One World Probability Seminar is to provide access to a seminar for as many researchers as possible. For the indefinite future, the seminar is intended to REARRANGED: foster ideas among our truly global research community and to help reduce our impact on Frontier Probability Days climate change. Initially, the seminar will have an experimental character. We will need to May 16–18, 2021, Las Vegas, Nevada understand how to work with online tools and learn how to deal with the vulnerabilities w http://lechen.faculty.unlv.edu/FPD20/ and bottlenecks of online traffic. Please join us in the long journey ahead! Registration open until March 16, 2021. ABC in Svalbard Mathematical Statistics and Learning April 12–13, 2021, Svalbard, Norway June 1–4, 2021, Barcelona, Spain. w https://sites.google.com/view/ w https://www.msl2020.org/ IMS sponsored meeting abcinsvalbard/home March 14–17, 2021: Baltimore, MD, USA Registration is open, and limited to 100 Statistics in the Big Data Era w www.enar.org/meetings/spring2021/ participants so book soon! ABC in Svalbard June 2–4, 2021, UC Berkeley, CA, USA Online registration coming soon! We aims to attract researchers at the forefront of w https://simons.berkeley.edu/workshops/ have delayed opening registration for the research on approximate Bayesian comput- statistics-big-data-era ENAR 2021 Spring Meeting, because ing methods, and promote original research ENAR’s highest priority is the health of in that field among various disciplines. Bernoulli–IMS World Congress 2020 our members and meeting attendees. We As the meeting is limited in size and July 19–23, 2021, Seoul, South Korea are monitoring the pandemic closely and located in a remote area of the world, w https://www.wc2020.org/ will make final decisions on the format and mirror meetings will take place in registration closer to 2021. Brisbane, Coventry and Paris, towards IMS Asia Pacific Rim Meeting 2022 gathering participants unable or unwilling January 4–7, 2022, Melbourne, Australia 2022 ENAR meeting: to travel to Longyearbyen. They will include w http://ims-aprm2021.com/ March 27–30, 2022. Houston, TX, USA live talks by local speakers, live interaction with the happy few in Longyearbyen (time IMS sponsored meeting zone permitting), and further discussions of Bernoulli–IMS 11th World Congress in Probability and Statistics and 2024 IMS Annual Meeting the remote talks. Any volunteer interested August 12–16, 2024, Ruhr-University Bochum, Germany in setting up another mirror meeting should w TBC contact one of the organizers. 22 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

Employment Opportunities around the world

Hong Kong United States: Santa Cruz, CA Hong Kong Baptist University University of California Santa Cruz Professor / Associate Professor / Assistant Professor Statistics: Assistant Professor-Statistical Data Science (Open until https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55236268 filled. Apply by 1/18/21) https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55265282 Hong Kong The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, United States: Stanford, CA Department of Information Systems, Business Statistics and Stanford University, Department of Statistics Operations Management Stein Fellow in Statistics or Probability Non-tenure track teaching position in Statistics Group https://jobs.imstat.org/job//51005468 https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55281901 United States: Chicago, IL Italy: Milan University of Chicago Bocconi University, Department of Decision Sciences Instructional Professor (open rank) in Data Science Assistant Professor in Statistics https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55292335 https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55157210 United States: Wichita, KS United Kingdom: Coventry Wichita State University University of Warwick Assistant Professor of Statistics Assistant Professor https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55191643 https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55292365 United States: Boston, MA United Kingdom: Coventry Questrom School of Business University of Warwick Assistant Professor of Finance (FinTech) Assistant Professor https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55149526 https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55292360 United States: Cambridge, MA United Kingdom: Coventry Harvard University Department of Statistics University of Warwick Assistant Professor of Statistics Associate Professor https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55236407 https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55292353 United States: Rockville, MD United States: Irvine, CA Information Management Services, Inc. University of California, Irvine Statistician/Programmer Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55274445 https://jobs.imstat.org/job//54933472 United States: Rolla, MO United States: Los Angeles, CA Missouri University of Science and Technology University of Southern California Fred and June Kummer Endowed Department Chair of Professor of Data Sciences and Operations - Statistics (Open Rank, Mathematics and Statistics Tenure-Track) https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55244433 https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55149655

::: Advertise current job opportunities for only $325 for 60 days ::: See https://jobs.imstat.org for details ::: January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 23

United States: Ithaca, NY Columbia University Department of Statistics United States: Saint Louis, MO Lecturer in Discipline, position starting Fall 2021 Washington University in Saint Louis The Department of Statistics invites applications for multiple Postdoctoral Lecturer in Statistics positions at the rank of Lecturer in Discipline to begin July 1, https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55229612 2021. These are full-time appointments with multi-year renewal contingent on successful review. These positions will contribute United States: Ithaca, NY to the departmental educational mission at the undergraduate Cornell University, Department of Statistics and Data Science and masters levels. Assistant/Associate/Visiting Professor Lecturers in Discipline are officers in the University who https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55083713 meet a programmatic need for instruction in specialized fields. The selected candidates will be expected to teach three courses United States: New York, NY per semester. A Ph.D. in Statistics or related field and a com- Simons Foundation mitment to high-quality teaching at both the undergraduate Flatiron Research Fellow in Scientific Computing, CCM and MA levels in Statistics and/or Probability are required. https://jobs.imstat.org/job//54848450 Experience with online education is desirable but not required. Candidates will be expected to participate in the full gamut of United States: New York, NY statistics education including curriculum improvement, modify- Simons Foundation ing and developing courses, and exploring new strategies for the Flatiron Research Fellow, Machine Learning and Computational teaching of statistics. Statistics, CCM The department currently consists of 35 faculty members https://jobs.imstat.org/job//54848441 and 60 PhD students. The department has been expanding rapidly and, like the university itself, is an extraordinarily United States: New York, NY vibrant academic community. We are especially interested in New York University Stern School of Business, Department of candidates who, through their research, teaching and/or service, Technology, Operations, and Statistics will contribute to the diversity and excellence of the academic Assistant Professor of Technology, Operations, and Statistics - community. Women and minorities are especially encouraged Statistics to apply. For further information about the department and https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55123735 our activities, centers, research areas, and curricular programs, please go to our web page at http://www.stat.columbia.edu. United States: Memphis, TN All applications must be submitted through Columbia’s University of Memphis online Recruitment of Academic Personnel System (RAPS) and Assistant Professor-Data Science must include the following materials: cover letter, curriculum https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55191561 vitae, statement of teaching philosophy, research statement, evi- dence of teaching effectiveness (teaching evaluations), a sample United States: Seattle, WA course syllabus and the names of three references. Applicants University of Washington, Department of Statistics also should arrange for three letters of recommendation to be Acting Assistant Professor in Statistics uploaded on their behalf. https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55292276 For more information and to apply, please go to: http:// pa334.peopleadmin.com/postings/6606 United States: Madison, WI Inquiries may be made to Dood Kalicharan at dk@stat. University of Wisconsin–Madison columbia.edu Professor - Asst, Assoc, full Review of applications begins on February 1, 2021 and will https://jobs.imstat.org/job//55190957 continue until the position is filled. Columbia University is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action employer.

::: Search our online database of the latest jobs around the world for free at https://jobs.imstat.org ::: 24 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

International Calendar of Statistical Events

IMS meetings are highlighted in maroon with the logo, and new or updated entries have the NEW or UPDATED symbol. Please submit your meeting details and any corrections to Elyse Gustafson: [email protected]

At the time of writing, some meetings are known to be POSTPONED or canceled. Where new dates are known, they are included here. Some meetings, marked ONLINE , are offering a virtual format. Please check meeting websites for updates.

Online and Ongoing Brisbane, Coventry, Paris]. ABC in Svalbard w https://sites.google.com/view/abcinsvalbard/home NEW ONLINE COPSS–NISS COVID-19 Data Science Webinar series w https://www.niss.org/copss-niss-covid-19-data- April 22–23: Birmingham, UK. 3rd IMA and OR Society science-webinar-series Conference on Mathematics of Operational Research w https://ima.org.uk/14347/14347/ ONLINE One World ABC Seminar w https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/news/upcoming- April 25–27: Gainesville, FL, USA. Conference on Applied Statistics seminars/abcworldseminar in Agriculture and Natural Resources w https://conference.ifas.ufl.edu/applied-stats/ ONLINE One World Probability Seminar w https://www.owprobability.org/one-world-probability-seminar May 2021 ONLINE Video series: The Philosophy of Data Science May 16–18: Frontier Probability Days w https://www.podofasclepius.com/philosophy-of-data-science Las Vegas, USA. w http://lechen.faculty.unlv.edu/FPD20/

NEW May 20–23: Chicago, USA. IISA 2021 Summer Conference w https://www.intindstat.org/summerConference2021/ January 2021 January 4–5: Tokyo, Japan [can also attend virtually – hybrid June 2021 format]. 3rd International Conference on Computational June (dates TBA): Anchorage, Alaska, USA. WNAR/IMS/JR Mathematics and Applied Physics (ICCMAP 2021) w http:// Meeting w https://www.wnar.org/page-18098 www.iccmap.iisrc.org

POSTPONED January 5–8 [NOW January 4–7, 2022]: Melbourne, Australia. IMS Asia Pacific Rim Meeting (IMS-APRM2021) w http://ims-aprm2021.com/

March 2021

March 14–17: [Currently in-person, may move to online, please check] Baltimore, MD, USA. ENAR Spring Meeting w https://www.enar.org/meetings/spring2021/ HaveHave you spotted March 17–20: Bethlehem, PA, USA. Seminar on Stochastic a meeting that’s missing or Processes (SSP) w https://wordpress.lehigh.edu/ssp2021/ listed incorrectly? Please tell us! April 2021

April 12–13: Svalbard, Norway [also mirror meetings in Email [email protected]. January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 25

Meeting organizers: to get a FREE LISTING in this calendar, please submit the June 1–4: Barcelona, Spain. Mathematical Statistics and details (as early as possible) at Learning w https://www.msl2020.org https://www.imstat.org/ June 2–4: Berkeley, CA, USA. Statistics in the Big Data Era ims-meeting-form/ w https://simons.berkeley.edu/workshops/statistics-big-data-era Or you can email the details to Elyse June 14–17: New Orleans, USA. Sixth International Conference Gustafson at [email protected] on Establishment Statistics (ICES VI) w https://ww2.amstat.org/ meetings/ices/2021/index.cfm We’ll list them here in the Bulletin, and on the IMS website too, at June 14–18: Paphos, Cyprus. International Symposium on Nonparametric Statistics 2020 w http://cyprusconferences.org/ imstat.org/meetings-calendar/ isnps2021/

June 20–26: Portoroz, Slovenia. 8th European Congress of August 2021 Mathematics w http://www.8ecm.si/ August 5–7: Prague, Czech Republic. 3rd International Conference June 28-July 2: Kunming, China. ISBA 2021: World Meeting of on Statistics: Theory and Applications (ICSTA’21) w https://2021. the International Society for Bayesian Analysis icsta.net/ w https://bayesian.org/isba2020-home/ August 7–12: Seattle, WA, USA. IMS Annual Meeting at JSM June 28–July 2: Edinburgh, UK. Extreme Value Analysis 2021 w http://www.amstat.org/ASA/Meetings/Joint-Statistical- w https://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/school-of-mathematics/eva-2021 Meetings.aspx June 28–July 2: Nový Smokovec, Slovakia. LinStat 2021 w https:// linstat2020.science.upjs.sk/ September 2021 June 29–July 1: Nottingham, UK. MIMAR (11th Modelling September 8–9: Cambridge, UK. Induction Course for New in Industrial Maintenance and Reliability) w https://ima.org. Lecturers in the Mathematical Sciences w https://ima.org. uk/12183/11th-ima-international-conference-on-modelling-in- uk/13572/induction-course-for-new-lecturers-in-the-mathematical- industrial-maintenance-and-reliability-mimar/ sciences-2021/ July 2021 September 19–22: Ribno (Bled), Slovenia. Applied Statistics 2020 (AS2020) w http://conferences.nib.si/AS2020 ONLINE July 11–16: NOW ONLINE. 63rd ISI World Statistics Congress 2021 w http://www.isi2021.org/ January 2022 July 5–9: Gold Coast, QLD, Australia. 2020 Australian and New January 4–7 (postponed from January 2021): Melbourne, Zealand Statistical Conference w https://anzsc2020.com.au Australia. IMS Asia Pacific Rim Meeting (IMS-APRM2021) w July 15–18: Montreal, Canada. Statistics 2021 Canada http://ims-aprm2021.com/ w https://www.concordia.ca/artsci/events/statistics-2021.html

July 19–23 (postponed from 2020): Seoul, South Korea. March 2022 Bernoulli–IMS World Congress w https://www.wc2020.org/ March 27–30: Houston, TX, USA. ENAR Spring Meeting w http://www.enar.org/meetings/future.cfm

Continues on page 26 26 . IMS Bulletin Volume 50 . Issue 1

International Calendar continued

May 2022 at JSM 2023 w http://www.amstat.org/ASA/Meetings/Joint- Statistical-Meetings.aspx

May 12–18: Erice, Italy. 7th Workshop on Stochastic Methods in Game Theory w https://sites.google.com/view/erice-smgt2020/ August 2024 the-workshop August 3–8: Portland, OR, USA. JSM 2024 June 2022 w http://www.amstat.org/ASA/Meetings/Joint-Statistical- Meetings.aspx June 27–30: London, UK. IMS Annual Meeting w TBC August 12–16: Bernoulli/IMS World June 27–July 1: Darwin, Australia. Joint Southern Statistical Bochum, Germany. Congress in Probability and Statistics w TBC Meetings 2022 (JSSM2022) w https://statsoc.org.au/event- 3529236 August 2025 July 2022

July 1: London, UK. IMS–COLT one-day workshop (between August 2–7: Nashville, TN, USA. IMS Annual Meeting IMS meeting and COLT meeting, details to be announced) at JSM 2025 w http://www.amstat.org/ASA/Meetings/Joint- w https://bguedj.github.io/colt-ims-2022.github.io/ Statistical-Meetings.aspx

July 10–15: Riga, Latvia. XXXI International Biometric Conference (IBC2022) w www.biometricsociety.org/meetings/conferences August 2026 July 18–22: Moscow, Russia. European Meeting of Statisticians w https://ems2022.org/ August 1–6: Boston, MA, USA. JSM 2026 w http://www. amstat.org/ASA/Meetings/Joint-Statistical-Meetings.aspx August 2022

August 6–11: Washington DC, USA. JSM 2022 w http://www.amstat.org/ASA/Meetings/Joint-Statistical- Meetings.aspx Are we missing something? If you know of August 21–25: Newcastle, UK. International Conference for any statistics or probability meetings which Clinical Biostatistics w http://www.iscb.info/ aren’t listed here, please let us know. July 2023 You can email the details to Elyse Gustafson at [email protected], or you can submit the July 15–20: Ottawa, Canada. 64th ISI World Statistics Congress w TBC details yourself at https://www.imstat.org/ ims-meeting-form/ August 2023 We’ll list them here in the Bulletin, August 5–10: Toronto, ON, Canada. IMS Annual Meeting and on the IMS website too, at imstat.org/meetings-calendar/ January/February . 2021 IMS Bulletin . 27

Membership and Subscription Information Information for Advertisers Journals General information: The IMS Bulletin and webpages are the official The scientific journals of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics news organs of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. The IMS are The Annals of Statistics, The Annals of Probability, The Annals Bulletin, established in 1972, is published 8 times per year. Print of Applied Statistics, The Annals of Applied Probability, and Statistical Science. The IMS Bulletin is the news organ of the circulation is around 3,500 paper copies, and it is also free online Institute. in PDF format at https://www.imstat.org/ims-bulletin-archive/, Individual Memberships posted online about two weeks before mailout (average downloads Each individual member receives the IMS Bulletin (print and/ over 8,000). 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Issue 1 the The purpose of the Institute is to foster the nextissue is development and dissemination March of the theory and applications of 2021 statistics and probability IMS: Organized September 12, 1935

Ann. Appl. Probab. Dec 2020 ISSNhttps://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoap 1050-5164 (print) ISSN 2168-8737 (online) Read IMS Bulletin THE ANNALS articles online at of https://imstat.org/news APPLIED PROBABILITY

AN OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE DEADLINES INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS submissionsfor Articles February 1, then On the asymptotic optimality of the comb strategy for prediction with expert advice ERHAN BAYRAKTAR,IBRAHIM EKREN AND YILI ZHANG 2517 Markov selection for the stochastic compressible Navier–Stokes system DOMINIC BREIT,EDUARD FEIREISL AND MARTINA HOFMANOVÁ 2547 March 15 Stochastic methods for the neutron transport equation I: Linear semigroup asymptotics EMMA HORTON,ANDREAS E. KYPRIANOU AND DENIS VILLEMONAIS 2573 A second order analysis of McKean–Vlasov semigroups Please see inside M. ARNAUDON AND P. D EL MORAL 2613 Utility maximization via decoupling fields the back cover for ALEXANDER FROMM AND PETER IMKELLER 2665 Sample path large deviations for Lévy processes and random walks with Weibull increments...... MIHAIL BAZHBA,JOSE BLANCHET, subscription details CHANG-HAN RHEE AND BERT ZWART 2695 From tick data to semimartingales ...... YACINE AÏT-SAHALIA AND JEAN JACOD 2740 and information for Applications of mesoscopic CLTs in random matrix theory BENJAMIN LANDON AND PHILIPPE SOSOE 2769 advertisers, including How fragile are information cascades? YUVAL PERES,MIKLÓS Z. RÁCZ,ALLAN SLY AND IZABELLA STUHL 2796 Stochastic methods for the neutron transport equation II: Almost sure growth all our deadlines and SIMON C. HARRIS,EMMA HORTON AND ANDREAS E. KYPRIANOU 2815 Bulk eigenvalue fluctuations of sparse random matrices ...... YUKUN HE 2846 requirements Extinction time for the weaker of two competing SIS epidemics FABIO LOPES AND MALWINA LUCZAK 2880 Modelling information flows by Meyer-σ -fields in the singular stochastic control problem ofirreversibleinvestment...... PETER BANK AND DAVID BESSLICH 2923 Splitting algorithms for rare event simulation over long time intervals ANNE BUIJSROGGE,PAUL DUPUIS AND MICHAEL SNARSKI 2963 Homogeneous mappings of regularly varying vectors Journal PIOTR DYSZEWSKI AND THOMAS MIKOSCH 2999 alerts For email alerts when new IMS journal issues are released, sign up at https://imstat.org/ Vol. 30, No. 6—December 2020 portal/login