Modelling Spatial & Temporal Urban Growth

Modelling Spatial & Temporal Urban Growth Jianquan Cheng Modelling Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Modelleren van ruimtelijke en temporele stedelijke groei 城市扩张的时空建模 Doctoral Dissertation (2003) Faculty of Geographical Sciences Utrecht University P.O. Box 80.115 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands ISBN 90-6164-212-4 Copyright © 2003 Jianquan Cheng ITC Dissertation number 99 This research was carried out at the International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), P.O. Box 6, 7500 AA, Enschede, The Netherlands. Cover designed by Jianquan Cheng & Andries Menning Printed by Febodruk BV, Enschede, The Netherlands Modelling Spatial and Temporal Urban Growth Modelleren van ruimtelijke en temporele stedelijke groei (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, Prof. Dr. W.H. Gispen ingevolge het besluit van het College voor Promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 7 mei 2003 des namiddags te 14:30 uur door Jianquan Cheng Geboren op 5 oktober 1966 te Anhui, China Promotoren: Prof. Dr. F.I. Masser Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-Information Management, International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC) & Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Utrecht University Prof. Dr. H.F.L. Ottens Institute for Urban and Regional Research Utrecht, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Utrecht University To my late mother and father & To my wife and daughter i Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by the SUS-DSO project between China and the Netherlands and partly by an ITC fellowship. I would like to express my profound gratitude to Prof. Yang Ren, Prof. Lan Yunchao, Mr. Paul Schoonackers and Dr Elisabeth Kosters for offering me the opportunity to realise this doctoral pursuit. Believing that everything happens for a reason, I was extremely fortunate to meet my promoter Prof. Ian Masser. He has taught me many things, although he sometimes may have had the impression that I do not listen to him. His wisdom has been a constant challenge to my work throughout the process of formulating and developing this research. His deep knowledge of urban planning and his systematic organisation of research ideas have greatly contributed to my scientific thinking in this study. Becoming my supervisor at a late stage in my research, Prof. Henk Ottens, with his depth of knowledge of urban geography, has given a great deal of constructive feedback on the structure and organisation of this dissertation. Working with him has been a really great experience − he is very encouraging, and he was available all the time despite his very busy schedule. His innovative comments and ingenious vision greatly improved the presentation and content of this thesis. I am indebted to Dr. Jan Turkstra, who introduced me to the field of urban development planning. He was always ready to discuss the Wuhan case study and wished me success! to encourage me. His enthusiasm for work is highly contagious. He stimulated the identification and exploration of the linkage between the research and Chinese urban planning. I am much obliged to late Prof. Morris Juppenlatz, who was critically awaiting the outcome of this research. This dissertation is in his memory − in memory of the founding father of the relation between ITC and Wuhan University. My thanks are further extended to his wife, "Mummy" of the Chinese students, Mrs Nita Juppenlatz. I thank her for kindly offering long-term accommodation and a cultural climate where I learned and enjoyed much beyond the PhD research. I hope she will forgive me for my argumentative character. This study benefited enormously from the seminar series on "emerging directions in urban planning research" sponsored by ITC and the Urban Planning and Management division. On these occasions, I was fortunate to have very inspired discussions with Prof. Michael Batty, Prof. Michael Wegener, Prof. Anthony Gar-On Yeh, Prof. Carole Rakodi and Prof. Dick Klosterman, who have contributed their academic and professional advice and examples to this research. Warm thanks are extended to the reviewers of those papers accepted and published in international journals and conferences for their constructive comments improving the chapters in this dissertation. ii I am grateful for all the facilities at the "small but beautiful" ITC, providing first-class infrastructure and offering crucial courses in spatial statistics, creative thinking and scientific writing. Thanks are particularly given to the staff of the Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-information Management (PGM) for their great help in making all indispensable resources available, e.g. Petra Webber, Frans van den Bosch, Lorena Montoya, and Ayako Kagawa. I am very obliged to Prof. Martin Hale and Loes Colenbrander for handling many practicalities to keep this research running smoothly. I wish to thank the members of the review board for their willingness to participate in the process with me. My sincere thanks to Janice Collins, whose editing helped to put this thesis into proper English. The field work for this research was carried out for nearly 11 months in Wuhan. I would like to acknowledge the support and assistance provided by the WTUSM section at the library of Wuhan University. I extend special thanks to urban planners Prof. Sun Yunshan and Mr. Peng Mingjun, whose rich local knowledge was of great help in understanding practical planning issues. My colleagueship with Qingming and Zhengdong has been a sustaining source of strength throughout this doctoral programme. The four-year residence at Enschede synergetically dealt with many impossibilities. I highly appreciate the friendship and harmonious atmosphere that gave me great pleasure and energy, early or late, in the offices shared with Mehdi Farapour, Jose Santos, Amon Murwira, Grace Nangendo, Javier Alberto Martinez, Uday Bhaskar Nidumolu, Pravesh Debba and Chudamani Joshi. My fellow PhD candidates at ITC have been a great source of support to me. I would particularly like to acknowledge the part played by the supportive Chinese community over the four years (special thanks to Cheng Tao, Liu Xuehua, Liu Yaolin, Sun Yuxian, Tang Xingming, Yang Hong, Zheng Ding, Zhou Yueqin, and Zhu Sicai ) and will never forget the exciting and exhausting badminton, European trips, the spring festival party, barbecues, and good news from our motherland. Warm thanks to my bench-mate Li Jiaping for countless greetings and "remote" care from Utrecht. My education would not have reached this level without the support and love of my parents. I can never thank my mother enough for her love or repay her for her emotional support. I dedicate this dissertation first and foremost to the memory of my mother and father, because I was absent during the last period of my mother's life. And last but certainly not least, my heartfelt thanks go to my wife, Du Tao, for undertaking the whole burden of our family. Her encouragement and understanding made it possible to bring this dissertation to the world. Loving thanks to my daughter, Yuchen, who has given me so much joy. She reminded me of the asymmetry and the balance of an individual development. This dissertation would not have appeared without the kind support and assistance of a great many individuals and institutions, almost too many to list. However, I would like to take this opportunity to wish them all the best. iii Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Relevance ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Societal relevance ................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Scientific relevance................................................................................................. 2 1.1.3 Practical relevance.................................................................................................. 4 1.2 Research Questions ........................................................................................................ 4 1.2.1 Complexity modelling ............................................................................................ 5 1.2.2 The spatial and temporal measurement of urban growth........................................ 6 1.2.3 Spatial and temporal pattern modelling .................................................................. 6 1.2.4 Spatial and temporal process modelling ................................................................. 7 1.2.5 The transformation of Chinese cities ...................................................................... 7 1.3 Research Objectives ....................................................................................................... 8 1.4 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 9 1.5 Thesis Structure............................................................................................................ 11 Chapter 2 Understanding the Urban Growth Systems 13 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 14 2.2 Complexity of Urban Growth....................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 Complexity ..........................................................................................................

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