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When It Rains, It Pours

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When It Rains, It Pours When It Rains, It Pours Global Warming and the Increase in Extreme Precipitation from 1948 to 2011 When It Rains, It Pours Global Warming and the Increase in Extreme Precipitation from 1948 to 2011 Environment Massachusetts Research & Policy Center Travis Madsen, Frontier Group Nathan Willcox, Environment America Research & Policy Center Summer 2012 Acknowledgments The authors thank David Easterling, Chief of the Global Climate Applications Division at the National Climatic Data Center; Kim Knowlton, Senior Scientist at the Natural Re- sources Defense Council; and Brenda Ekwurzel, Assistant Director of Climate Research and Analysis at the Union of Concerned Scientists for their review and insightful feedback on drafts of this report. Allison Gruber, Environment America intern, assisted with research, and Tony Dutzik at Frontier Group provided editorial support. Environment Massachusetts Research & Policy Center is grateful to the Energy Foundation, the John Merck Fund, the New York Community Trust, the Arntz Family Foundation, the Michael Lee Foundation and the Scherman Foundation for making this report possible. The authors bear responsibility for any factual errors. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or expert reviewers. © 2012 Environment Massachusetts Research & Policy Center Environment Massachusetts Research & Policy Center is a 501(c)(3) organization. We are dedicated to protecting Massachusetts’ air, water and open spaces. We investigate prob- lems, craft solutions, educate the public and decision-makers, and help Bay Staters make their voices heard in local, state and national debates over the quality of our environment and our lives. For more information about Environment Massachusetts Research & Policy Center or for additional copies of this report, please visit www.environmentmassachusetts center.org. Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner, healthier and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate information and compelling ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and federal levels. For more information about Frontier Group, please visit www.frontiergroup.org. Cover photo: iStockphoto.com contributor Lightguard Layout design: Harriet Eckstein Graphic Design Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction 6 Global Warming Is Providing More Fuel for Rainstorms and Snowstorms 8 Warming Increases Evaporation and Enables the Air to Hold More Water Vapor 8 Fueled by Extra Water Vapor, Patterns of Extreme Precipitation Are Changing Around the World 9 Extreme Precipitation Poses a Threat to Our Society 11 The Frequency and Severity of Heavy Downpours Are Increasing Across the United States 15 Extreme Downpours Are Happening More Frequently 15 The Biggest Storms Are Getting Bigger 19 Global Warming Will Very Likely Drive Future Increases in Heavy Downpours 24 Greater Warming Will Very Likely Make Extreme Downpours More Frequent and Intense, Increasing the Risk of Flooding 25 Warming Will Likely Also Increase the Risk of Drought 27 Policy Recommendations: Reduce the Pollution that Causes Global Warming 28 Methodology 30 Appendix 33 Table A-1: Regional-Level Increase in Extreme Precipitation Frequency, 1948-2011 34 Table A-2: State-Level Increase in Extreme Precipitation Frequency, 1948-2011 34 Table A-3: Regional-Level Increase in 24-Hour Total Precipitation Produced by the Largest Annual Rainstorm or Snowstorm at Each Weather Station, 1948-2011 36 Table A-4: State-Level Increase in 24-Hour Total Precipitation Produced by the Largest Annual Rainstorm or Snowstorm at Each Weather Station, 1948-2011 36 Notes 38 Executive Summary lobal warming is happening now and with the potential to cause more flooding its effects are being felt in the United that jeopardizes property and lives. With GStates and around the world. Among scientists predicting even greater increases the expected consequences of global warm- in extreme precipitation in the years ahead, ing is an increase in the heaviest rain and the United States and the world must take snow storms, fueled by increased evapora- action to reduce pollution that contributes tion and the ability of a warmer atmosphere to global warming. to hold more moisture. An analysis of more than 80 million daily Extreme rainstorms and snowstorms precipitation records from across the con- are happening more frequently. tiguous United States reveals that intense rainstorms and snowstorms have already • Extreme downpours—rainstorms and become more frequent and more severe. snowfalls that are among the largest Extreme downpours are now happening experienced at a particular location# 30 percent more often nationwide than —are now happening 30 percent more in 1948. In other words, large rain or often on average across the contigu- snowstorms that happened once every ous United States than in 1948. (Our 12 months, on average, in the middle of analysis covered the period from 1948 the 20th century now happen every nine to 2011, which offered the most com- months. Moreover, the largest annual plete weather data.) storms now produce 10 percent more precipitation, on average. • New England has experienced An increase in extreme downpours has the greatest change, with intense costly ramifications for the United States, rainstorms and snowstorms now #Specifically, we defined extreme events as those expected to occur no more than once per year on aver- age at a particular location based on the historical record. In other words, we identified the 64 events at each weather station with the largest 24-hour precipitation totals across the 64-year time period of the study, and labeled them extreme. Executive Summary Figure ES-1: Extreme Downpours Have Become More Frequent Across Much of the United States Decrease in Frequency Increase in Frequency -100% -50% -10% 10% 50% 100% happening 85 percent more often than • In total, 43 states showed significant* in 1948. The frequency of intense increases in the frequency of extreme rain or snowstorms nearly doubled in downpours. Only one state, Oregon, Vermont and Rhode Island, and more experienced a significant decrease. than doubled in New Hampshire. (See (See Table A-2 on page 34 for full data Figure ES-1.) by state.) • The change has also been pronounced The biggest rainstorms and snow- in the Mid-Atlantic, the South, the storms are getting bigger. Midwest and the Mountain West. New York, Pennsylvania and Mis- • Not only are extreme downpours souri each experienced an increase in more frequent, but they are also more extreme downpour frequency of more intense. The total amount of precipi- than 50 percent. tation produced by the largest storm *The term “significant” here indicates a very high probability that the trend is real and not simply the result of chance, based on statistical analysis. Specifically, significant results showed 95 percent or greater probability that the slope of a best-fit line through the data was greater than zero, supporting the conclu- sion that the frequency of extreme downpours has increased. 2 When It Rains, It Pours in each year at each station increased Global warming—driven by pollution by 10 percent over the period of analy- from the combustion of fossil fuels—is sis, on average across the contiguous helping to fuel the increasing severity United States. of downpours. • This trend was most pronounced in • The U.S. Global Change Research New England and the Middle At- Program—composed of a wide range lantic. Connecticut, Delaware, Mas- of leading experts from the U.S. Na- sachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania ministration, the National Aeronautics and Vermont all saw the intensity of and Space Administration, and uni- the largest storm each year increase by versities—called the increase in heavy 20 percent or more. downpours “one of the clearest pre- cipitation trends in the United States” • The trend also occurred across the and linked the phenomenon to global Midwest, the South and the West. In warming in its report, Global Climate total, 43 states experienced a sta- Change Impacts in the United States. tistically significant increase in the amount of precipitation produced by • The average temperature in the the largest annual rain or snow storm. United States has increased by 2° F Only one, Oregon, recorded a signifi- over the last 50 years. Nine of the ten cant decrease. For full state data, see warmest years on record have oc- Table A-4 on page 36. curred since 2000. Figure ES-2: The Biggest Storms Are Getting Bigger 80 70 60 50 40 30 (mm of Precipitation) ofPrecipitation) (mm or Snow Storm by Station by Storm Snow or 20 Average Size of Largest Annual Rain Annual ofLargest Size Average 10 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Executive Summary • Warmer temperatures increase evapo- are projected to occur about every ration and enable the air to hold more 4 to 15 years by the end of this cen- water. Scientists have found that the tury,” according to their report, while water content of the atmosphere is producing 10 to 25 percent more now increasing at a rate of about 1.3 precipitation per storm, depending percent per decade. The additional on location and on the scale of future moisture loaded into the atmosphere emissions of global warming pollution. by global warming provides more fuel for intense rainstorms and • Extreme rain and snowstorms can snowstorms. harm people and property—primar- ily by increasing the risk of flooding. Global warming will very likely drive In 2011, floods killed more than 100 future increases in extreme downpours, people and caused more than $8 bil- with a wide range of harmful conse- lion in damage to property and crops. quences. • Bigger and heavier rainstorms and • Experts at the U.S. Global Change snowstorms will not necessarily lead Research Program project that heavy to more water being available for downpours are very likely to become ecosystems or human use.
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