Ontario and Nipissing District: Population and Dwelling Update, 2011 Census District of Nipissing Social Services Administration Board (DNSSAB), May 2012 Page 1 of 31 Introduction The District of Nipissing Social Services Administration Board (DNSSAB) provides essential human services to the citizens of Nipissing District. These services include Ontario Works, Children‟s Services, Housing, and Emergency Medical Services (EMS). The core service areas are supported by Corporate Services, and governance is provided by a Board of Directors comprised of 12 elected officials representing the district‟s municipalities and areas. DNSSAB is located in North Bay and serves the area of Nipissing District which is comprised of 11 municipalities, two unorganized areas, and two First Nations, as shown on the map below: Purpose This is a descriptive report that presents the first available data from the 2011 census: population and private dwellings. The data is presented in summary form, with a brief description of the meaning of the data as interpreted by the author. Page 2 of 31 The report provides a population and dwelling update on Ontario and Nipissing District. As part of the corporate strategies of leveraging data & information, and facilitating community planning, the report is intended to: i) Put some context and meaning around the raw census data and connect some of the dots. ii) Provide DNSSAB and its stakeholders1 with data and information to facilitate informed decision-making for planning, advocacy, policy and program development, and service delivery. iii) Generate discussion and debate around the population and dwelling counts and trends, in terms of their relevance to the human services sector and other related social and economic sectors. Limitations This report is not an explanatory one. For example, it does not explain why the population and dwelling counts are what they are or what caused a change in population and dwellings in a given area, etc. Connecting all of the dots would involve answering specific research questions such as why did the population change or not change? Or, what caused the increase –or decrease- in the number of private dwellings? Answering these types of questions requires different statistical tools, methodologies and analysis than the descriptive techniques used, and are beyond the scope of this report. Having said the above, one central theme that emerges from the report is the phenomenon of strong household growth relative to population growth (or decline as the case may be). Some possible explanations are provided as to why the number of households is growing faster than the population, or why household growth is occurring in areas where there has been population decline. However, the explanations are based on past household and family trends and cannot be confirmed until the 2011 census family and household data is released in September 2012. The report does not go into detailed analysis for each of the district‟s municipalities and areas. Separate reports for these areas will be available in the future (see “Scope” below). Scope This is the first report of a series that will be rolled out as the census data becomes available. The series of reports will include individual reports for the district‟s respective municipalities and areas. The report presents the population and dwelling data for Ontario and its 49 census divisions, and Nipissing District. For each level of geography, the population data is Page 3 of 31 presented first followed by the dwelling data. For both variables, the current (2011) counts are stated and the five year change from the 2006 census is also stated. The past 20-year trend (1991 to 2011) for the population and number of dwellings is also presented, and comparisons are made between Nipissing District and Ontario. Data Unless stated otherwise, the data in this report is derived from the Canadian Census of Population. The current population and dwelling counts are derived from the Statistics Canada 2011 census, released publicly on February 8, 2012. The trend data is from previous Statistics Canada censuses, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006. The dwelling data in this report refers to “private dwellings” as defined by Statistics Canada (see Endnote 3). The term “dwelling” is used interchangeably with “household” in the report, as the two approximate closely to each other based on past census counts. Report Production This report was written by Dave Plumstead, MBA; DNSSAB Research Analyst. Acknowledgements A special thanks to the City of North Bay‟s GIS department for assistance with creating the maps. Page 4 of 31 Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Report Purpose ......................................................................................................................................... 2 Report Limitations..................................................................................................................................... 3 Scope ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Data ........................................................................................................................................................... 4 Report Production ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................... 4 Key Findings .............................................................................................................................................. 6 I. ONTARIO POPULATION 2011………………………………………………………………………………………………………….10 1.0 Population 2011 by Census Division ........................................................................................... 10 1.1 Population Change: 2006 to 2011 by Census Division ................................................................ 12 1.2 Population 20-year Trend: 1991 to 2011 .................................................................................... 13 II. ONTARIO PRIVATE DWELLINGS 2011……………………………………………………………………………………………..15 2.0 Private Dwellings 2011 by Census Division ................................................................................. 15 2.1 Private Dwelling Change: 2006 to 2011 by Census Division ....................................................... 17 2.2 Private Dwellings 20-year Trend: 1991 to 2011 .......................................................................... 19 III. NIPISSING DISTRICT POPULATION 2011………………………………………………………………………………………..20 3.0 Population 2011 by Municipality and Area ................................................................................. 20 3.1 Population Change: 2006 to 2011 by Municipality and Area ..................................................... 21 3.2 Population 20-year Trend: 1991 to 2011 .................................................................................... 23 3.3 Population Change Comparison: Nipissing and Ontario ............................................................. 24 IV. NIPISSING DISTRICT PRIVATE DWELLINGS 2011……………………………………………………………………………25 4.0 Private Dwellings by Municipality and Area ............................................................................... 25 4.1 Private Dwelling Change: 2006 to 2011 by Municipality and Area ............................................. 27 4.2 Private Dwellings 20-year Trend: 1991-2011 .............................................................................. 29 4.3 Dwelling Change Comparison: Nipissing and Ontario ................................................................ 29 References .............................................................................................................................................. 30 End Notes ................................................................................................................................................ 31 Page 5 of 31 Key Findings The following are key findings from the analysis, taken from the main body of the report. Based on previous census data and analysis, the findings are classed as either new findings or confirmation findings as defined below: New finding: reveals something that is not presently known; is unexpected; indicates that a given trend is not continuing with the same magnitude and /or has changed direction. Confirmation Finding: confirms what is already known; is expected; indicates that a given trend is continuing with the same magnitude and in the same direction. ONTARIO Population New Finding: Ontario’s census population is 12.8 million people. Toronto, Peel and York account for over one-third of the population. Confirmation Finding: There is significant variation in population and area across Ontario’s 49 census divisions. Land area ranges from just 630 square kilometres in Toronto to over 400,000 square kilometres in Kenora. Meanwhile the population ranges from 13,000 people in Manitoulin to over 2.5 million people in Toronto. Confirmation Finding: Northern Ontario accounts for 88% of Ontario’s land area, but just 6% of the population. New Finding: Northern Ontario has an average population density of 7 people per square kilometre while Southern Ontario has 244 people