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DBS Group Research Singapore Industry Focus Mapletree Group of REITs Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 1 Oct 2018 Making waves in Bangkok STI : 3,257.05 • Actively acquiring to grow AUM, diversify Analyst exposures and boost distributions Derek TAN +65 6682 3716 [email protected] • REITs are positioned in real estate subsectors that have proven to exhibit resilience across market Mervin SONG, CFA +65 6682 3715 cycles [email protected] Carmen Tay +65 6682 3719 • Strong investor interest in recently held [email protected] Mapletree Bangkok Day Actively acquiring to grow AUM, diversify exposures and boost distributions. Nimble and decisive in executing their STOCKS growth strategy and supported by a Sponsor with strong 12-mth firepower, the Mapletree Group of REITs have been one of the Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) more active S-REITs over the past 12 months, acquiring close to S$ US$m S$ 3 mth 12 mth Rating S$3.1bn in assets in Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Japan and the US. Trading at attractive cost of capital, the REITs also raise Mapletree Logistics 1.23 2,925 1.50 0.0 2.1 BUY Trust close to S$1.7bn in new equity with strong investors support, shoring up their balance sheets, positioning them to take on Mapletree 1.99 2,745 2.22 3.7 8.2 BUY Industrial Trust new opportunities come 2019 and beyond. Mapletree 1.63 3,440 1.80 4.5 8.0 BUY Commercial Trust A proven track record of resilience across market cycles. We believe that the Mapletree Group of REITs are positioned in Mapletree North 1.13 2,609 1.45 0.0 (1.7) BUY Asia Commercial the more resilient commercial (mainly retail) and industrial Trust sectors (factories, warehouses and data centres), which in our view, are safer havens given the ongoing macro uncertainties. Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. In fact, the managers are seeing a steady improvement in Closing price as of 27 Sep 2018 operating outlook for most sectors (mainly the industrial and retail) going into 2019. We believe that both Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) will benefit from abating supply risk in its Singapore operations, boosted by contributions from recently completed acquisitions. Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC) and Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) have dominant properties in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively, which we believe could withstand supply challenges and will continue to churn out positive rental upside in the coming quarters. Strong investor interest in recently held Mapletree Bangkok Day. Backed by a Sponsor with pedigree branding who have been actively acquiring land to build a pipeline for its REITs, the Mapletree Group of REITs continue to attract a strong following in our recent corporate access event in Bangkok. Investor interest still revolves around the group’s ability to grow revenues and at the same time keep balance sheet metrics strong with gearing well within management comfortable limits with access to banks. While interest rates are rising, compressing credit spreads and a wider range of debt funding options (through MTNs, etc.) imply that any upward pressure on interest rates is likely to be marginal. ed:CK / sa:SM, CW, CS Page 1 Industry Focus Mapletree Group of REITs Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) Majority of markets to see improved performance; driven by a majority of which is in China and is in various stages of diverse demand from 3PLs . The manager sees improved development and leasing. demand and expects to see higher rents in a majority of the markets that they operate in. We estimate that in FY20, MLT Asset recycling opportunities; manager to share gains with derives 83% of its income from “developed markets” in Asia unitholders. The manager keeps an eye on optimising portfolio which mainly consists of Singapore (c.41% of revenues), Hong returns through active divestments and asset rejuvenation for Kong (c.22%), Japan (c.6%) and Australia (c.8%) which offer older assets to maintain the asset relevance to end-users. In stable returns. China (13% of revenues) is also expected to cases where potential capital returns are limited, the manager grow strongly with supply risk tapering off in its micro-markets will choose to divest. We note that the manager have ear- and boosted by the recent acquisition of a 50% stake in 11 marked up to S$200m in potential divestments in the coming properties completed in 2Q18. quarters. Any realised gains will likely to be paid out to unitholders, in line with historical trends. Acquisition opportunities to drive growth. MLT has been on an acquisition spree, adding approximately c.S$1.8bn in new assets Recapitalised balance sheet; minimal interest rate risk. MLT (Hong Kong, China and Singapore) over the past 12 months. recently raised S$375m in new equity through a private While 3rd party acquisitions are generally opportunistic in nature, placement exercise to part fund the recent acquisition of five MLT has the support from the Sponsor for a key source of a ramp-up properties (total cost of S$778m) in Singapore. Post pipeline of deal flow. Looking ahead, we think markets like fund raising, gearing is estimated to settle at c.38%, still within China, Hong Kong, Japan and Australia present the most a comfortable range. Portfolio interest cost of 2.5% will likely opportunities to grow inorganically. We do note that MLT’s remain stable given the limited near-term refinancing risk and pipeline from China continues to grow extensively and a with >80% of its interest costs fixed. Breakdown of revenues Revenue and distribution growth profile S$'m Australia, 7.5% Vietnam, 1.5% 500.0 Malaysia, 6.4% 400.0 Singapore , 41.4% China , 12.2% 300.0 200.0 South Korea, 3.8% 100.0 FY17 FY18 19F 20F 21F Revenues Distributions HK , 21.9% Japan , 5.6% Source: DBS Bank Source: DBS Bank P/NAV Yield spread P/NAV Multiple (x) Yield Spread vs 10 year bond 2.0 16.0% 1.8 14.0% 1.6 1.4 12.0% 1.2 10.0% 1.0 8.0% 0.8 6.0% 0.6 4.0% 0.4 2.0% 0.2 0.0% 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -2.0% MLT P/BV Mean +1 SD -1 SD MLT Yield Spread Mean -1 SD +1 SD Source: DBS Bank Source: DBS Bank Page 2 Page 2 Industry Focus Mapletree Group of REITs Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) A healthier operating climate to come. The manager is still Development projects and potential acquisitions to complement seeing some rental and occupancy pressure in the flatted a fairly flattish organic growth. The manager’s focus is to factories and business park segments in the shorter term, as the complement a steady organic growth profile through selective rental spreads (expiring rental levels vs market rental levels) are development opportunities or acquisitions. Going forward, this still negative. In addition, the manager has only back-filled will come from the full-year contribution from the Hewlett c.25% of the vacated by Johnson & Johnson. In the medium Packard building phase 2 and a recently completed built-to-suit term, due to the drop off in supply from 2019 and a fall in new (BTS) data centre in Singapore. The manager is also undertaking industrial land additions through the government tenders, the the refurbishment and conversion of 7 Tai Seng from a logistics industrial market is expected to achieve a steady state. facility into a high-specifications industrial property to accommodate an tenant in the information & communication An emerging data-centre play. The manager maintains that the technology industry which signed a 25-year contract, offering REIT will look to grow its overseas data-centre exposure to strong income visibility. c.20% of its assets (vs 10% now). Apart from the US, where the REIT has a portfolio of data-centres, MINT is also looking at A potential acquisition opportunity in the Sponsor’s pipeline is other jurisdiction in Europe and the UK, which offer interesting an industrial property – 18 Tai Seng, which we understand to acquisition opportunities while also looking at increasing its have achieved close to 85% occupancy as of 31 March 2018. exposures in the US. The manager likes to add more “data- centre shells” to the REIT that are less volatile, coupled with the Minimal refinancing risk. With interest rates expect to remain on fact that it is now taking on less operational risk. an uptrend going into 2019, the manager has undertaken proactive measures to lock-in interest rates with close to c.78% of its debt hedged as of end-1QFY19. All-in interest cost is expected to trend higher from the current c.3.0% but should move at a measured pace. Sector exposure Revenue and distribution growth profile S$'m 500.0 Flatted Factories, 36% Hi-Tech , 39% 400.0 300.0 200.0 Light Industrial 100.0 Buildings, 2% 17A 18A 19F 20F 21F Business Parks, Stack-up 13% Revenues Distributions Buildings, 11% Source: DBS Bank Source: DBS Bank P/NAV Yield spread Yield Spread vs 10 year bond P/NAV Multiple (X) 7.0% 1.5 6.5% 1.5 6.0% 1.4 5.5% 1.4 1.3 5.0% 4.5% 1.3 1.2 4.0% 1.2 3.5% 1.1 3.0% 1.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MINT P/BV Mean +1 SD -1 SD MINT Yield Spread Mean -1 SD +1 SD Source: DBS Bank Source: DBS Bank Page 3 Page 3 Industry Focus Mapletree Group of REITs Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT) Vivocity still drawing crowds, completion of AEI to draw going into next year given the expected strong office rent crowds and sales.
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