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2020 Fantasy Law Guide

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2020 Fantasy Law Guide 2020 FANTASY LAW GUIDE By: Nick Guarisco @FantasyLawGuy TABLE OF CONTENTS: - Introduction & Tips for Using the FLG ……………………………..... 2-6 - Arizona Cardinals ……………………………………………..……..…... 7-13 - Atlanta Falcons ……………………………………………..……………. 13-18 - Baltimore Ravens ……………………………………………..…………. 18-26 - Buffalo Bills ……………………………………………..………………… 26-32 - Carolina Panthers ………………………………………………..……… 32-37 - Chicago Bears ……………………………………………..……………… 38-43 - Cincinnati Bengals ……………………………………………..………... 44-48 - Cleveland Browns ……………………………………………..…………. 48-56 - Dallas Cowboys ……………………………………………..……………. 56-64 - Denver Broncos ……………………………………………..……………. 64-70 - Detroit Lions ……………………………………………..…………….…. 70-78 - Green Bay Packers ………………………………………………..……… 78-85 - Houston Texans ……………………………………………..……………. 85-91 - Indianapolis Colts ……………………………………………..……...…. 91-96 Fantasy Law Guide 2020 1 By: Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy) - Jacksonville Jaguars ……………………………………………..……… 96-102 - Kansas City Chiefs ……………………………………………..……….. 102-110 - Las Vegas Raiders ……………………………………………..………... 110-118 - Los Angeles Chargers ……………………………………………..…..… 118-128 - Los Angeles Rams ……………………………………………..…………. 128-138 - Miami Dolphins ……………………………………………..………….… 138-144 - Minnesota Vikings ……………………………………………..……...…. 144-151 - New England Patriots ………………………………………………..….. 151-160 - New Orleans Saints ……………………………………………..……….. 160-168 - New York Giants ……………………………………………..…………... 168-177 - New York Jets ……………………………………………..……………… 177-184 - Philadelphia Eagles ……………………………………………..………. 184-193 - Pittsburgh Steelers ……………………………………………..……….. 193-200 - San Francisco 49ers ……………………………………………..………. 200-209 - Seattle Seahawks ……………………………………………..…………. 209-217 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers ……………………………………………..….. 217-223 - Tennessee Titans ……………………………………………..………….. 223-230 - Washington Football Team ……………………………………………. 230-235 Introduction to the “Fantasy Law Guide” Every day, hundreds of experts in the growing Fantasy Football Community use facts, analytics, history, and so much more, to formulate and shape their opinions on players. Experts share some of these stances both through the content they create and the conversations and debates about players’ fantasy values on Twitter, Reddit and Podcasts all offseason. The purpose of the Fantasy Law Guide is to take the best analysis from throughout the Fantasy Expert Community to provide the best arguments on both sides of the aisle – both for and against drafting each player – and consolidate them into one large document, that is the Fantasy Law Guide. The Fantasy Law Guide is intended to be a one-stop-shop for drafters in traditional redraft leagues to see all of the best information – among many of the industry’s top experts – so that they can make the most informed decision possible in preparation for their drafts. Because I am not affiliated with a particular fantasy football site, and because I am not getting paid for this project, I have the luxury of taking the best work from a variety of fantasy football websites and analysts and including it in here (with proper attribution, of course!). Speaking of which, I did my best to attribute each quote to the Fantasy Expert who stated it and not present stances on players in a way that looks like it is my own work. If you are a Fantasy Expert and do NOT wish to be included in the Fantasy Law Guide, please let me know and I will promptly remove your content from this document. Fantasy Law Guide 2020 2 By: Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy) I TRY to follow all of the sharks and best experts in the Fantasy Football Community, but I’m sure I am missing THOUSANDS of great writers and analysts. If you produce great fantasy content or know someone who does, or if you simply want to direct me to a particular article or tweet that you think should be in the Fantasy Law Guide, please let me know! One of my goals of this project is to spread the word on all of the great fantasy football content out there and introduce readers to new experts. Tips for Using the “Fantasy Law Guide” Let’s say, for example, that I have Pick #6 in my draft, and I can’t decide between Saints WR Michael Thomas or Saints RB Alvin Kamara. One way I could use this the “Fantasy Law Guide” is by simply typing “Control/Command – F” and searching each player’s name to find each instance Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are mentioned in this massive document. CONTEXTUALIZED GAMELOGS: First, a quick player name search will quickly take me to Michael Thomas’s “Contextualized Gamelog,” where I can see his statistics and fantasy output for each game last season. As I scan through his gamelog, I can also see the game notes that describe how (and why) these statistics were amassed each game. Unlike a traditional gamelog that only provides numbers, I can view necessary context for any performance. If Michael Thomas had a bad game, I can see if it was because he exited the game early, or if he was battling an injury going into the game, or if the conditions were difficult to play in because of bad weather – driving rain, snow, or a muddy field. I can see if Michael Thomas was being shadowed by an elite cornerback. I can see if game flow negatively affected his production (if his team was leading by double digits throughout the second half so there was no need to throw much). I can see if Michael Thomas was forced to play with his backup quarterback. These types of variables play such a significant role in determining statistical production, and it’s important to gain a full understand of WHY a player produced the fantasy statistics that he did, so you can determine whether stats are sticky (i.e. reliable) or fluky and based largely on situations unlikely to be repeated. Then, each player’s gamelog is summed up with a brief season summary, total season stats, and an adjusted fantasy total (more on this later). In order to create the Fantasy Law Guide, I went back and tracked each player’s game-by-game blurbs on Rotoworld.com. The creator of individual player blurbs for fantasy football, no site (that I know of) does a better job of recording a player’s game summary and corresponding fantasy takeaway in such a clean, concise method. The vast majority of the Contextualized Gamelog entries are taken from these blurbs. My intention is NOT to present them as my own. Rather, I want to make it abundantly clear that I am simply regurgitating these fantastic, free blurbs and combining the information with a player’s traditional gamelog stats and fantasy scores in an effort to make one, easy-to-read “full picture” summary for a given player’s season. Fantasy Law Guide 2020 3 By: Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy) In terms of statistics, I provide weekly fantasy points scored (ESPN PPR scoring), followed by relevant passing/rushing/receiving production, followed by opponent, followed by a summary and/or context of the player’s performance. Let’s see an example: QB Kyler Murray - Week 1 – 21.6 … 308, 2-1, 3-13-0 vs. DET. Murray was awful for the game’s first three quarters, missing all kinds of easy throws, while getting a number of balls batted down at the line of scrimmage. His INT was a horrendous decision with even worse mechanics. The Lions were up 24-6 early in the 4th quarter when Murray finally clicked into gear. He had several great throws to Larry Fitzgerald and a 27-yard dime TD to David Johnson to help lead his team to a tie. The extra quarter of play in overtime helped him accrue better fantasy numbers. • 21.6 … All fantasy point totals are based on ESPN PPR scoring and are rounded to the nearest tenth for consistency and for ease of reading. Please note that for any game-logging calculations, I rounded to the hundredth for greater accuracy, however. • 308 = Passing Yards • 2 = Passing Touchdown(s) • 1 = Interception(s) • 3-13-0 = 3 Carries for 13 rushing yards and 0 rushing touchdowns. • Vs. DET. = Against the Lions at home (@ DET would be an away game, at Detroit). ADJUSTED FANTASY TOTALS: At the bottom of each player’s Contextualized Gamelog, I provide their “Adjusted Fantasy Totals.” This may appear like Fantasy Points Per Game, but it is more complicated than that. In most cases, using a player’s final fantasy ranking is not particularly helpful analysis. Points per game is unquestionably more important. However, points per game can be flawed, too. In my opinion, fantasy experts who use raw PPG as the sole basis of their analysis of a player’s fantasy production per game simply are not doing enough work. Allow me to elaborate by providing examples of what I’m including and not including in my “Adjusted Fantasy Totals”: If D.J. Moore played 5 snaps before exiting a game, I’m certainly not going to include that game in his 2019 sample. Adam Thielen bowed out of 2 games last season in the 1st quarter because of his hamstring. What use is it to include those 2 hamstrung games in his PPG evaluation? Moreover, it’s unfair and unproductive to include the 3 games Robby Anderson played with Luke Falk instead of Sam Darnold in his PPG evaluation. Similarly, it’s poor practice to include Josh Allen’s week 17, where he only played a few series before resting for the playoffs, in his PPG evaluation. Fantasy Law Guide 2020 4 By: Nick Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy) The goal of my “Adjusted Fantasy Totals” is to exclude faulty games from their PPG calculation, where for example, they exited in the first quarter, or were playing with a third string QB, - games that are simply not relevant and act to screw up the sample - and to calculate PPG from a relevant, applicable sample for each player
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