Risk management & Risk assessment of water resources of the river basin under conditions of climate change and construction of large reservoirs

Inom Normatov

Institute of Water problems, Hydropower and Ecology AS Republic of

Email:[email protected] Length - 691 km Basin area - 39160 km2 Discharge (aver) -2273 m3/sec Glaciation area - 3856 km2 Tributaries - Surkhob, Obikhingou Elevation- 1151 m Dynamics of the temperature change in the River Basin (Garm Meteorological station)

2 y = 0.0076x - 14.947 R² = 0.046 1.5

1

. annual .

aver T T

– 0.5

0

mean annualmean 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 T -0.5

-1

-1.5

-2 Annual average temperature according to meteorological station Lyakhsh (a) and Tavildara (b) for the period 1960-2018

8.0 a 13 y = 0.0141x - 16.903 b y = 0.005x - 3.3523 R² = 0.0821 R² = 0.0136 7.5 12 7.0

6.5 11 Temperature, C Temperature, 6.0 C Temperature, 10 5.5

5.0 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Annual average precipitation according to meteorological station Lyakhsh (a) Tavildara (b) for the period 1960-2018

1800 a 1400 b y = -8.6778x + 17874 R² = 0.3207 y = 0.2469x + 265.67 R² = 0.0006 1200

1400 mm

1000 1000

800

Precipitation, mm Precipitation, Precipitation,

600 600

200 400 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 The Hydrological Characteristics of Tributaries and Vakhsh River

8.5 y = 0.0501x - 93.904 30 y = 0.1213x - 224.01 R² = 0.4892 R² = 0.2887

r. Surkhob 7.5

3 26 r. Obikhingoy 3

22 6.5

18 5.5

Water volume, km volume, Water Water volume, km volume, Water

14 4.5

10 3.5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 CONCLUSION

 The long-term average temperature on the Vakhsh river basin for the period 1960-2018 is characterized by an increasing trend

 The long-term average precipitation on the Vakhsh river basin is characterized by a decreasing trend

 The constancy and some increase of precipitation observed in some climatic zones of the Vakhsh river basin are associated with the processes of the influence of orography on the movement of air masses  In the Surkhob river basin intensively melting small glaciers of the Northern slopes in the Western part of Peter Great ridge

 In the Obikhingou river basin intensively melting the largest glacier Garmo. Currently glacier retreats at an average speed of 9 m/year, the surface settles due to the melting of up to 4 m/year.

 Another glacier in the same basin - Skogach retreats annually on 11 m. Trends of the Vakhsh River Runoff for the period 1932-2017 For allocation of periods with high and low water content are used differential 24 integral curves of average annual discharge. 22 The use of differential integral curves give a vision of cyclical fluctuations without

3 20 the effect of the displacement of the boundaries between the phases of the 18 cycles of low and high duration 3 ∑(K - 1)

Volume, km Volume, 16 2 14 1

12 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 10 -1 1932 1952 1972 1992 2012 -2

-3 The water volume change of the Vakhsh River for the period 1932-2018

8

6

4

2 3

0

1932 1952 1972 1992 2012 2032 ∆W, km ∆W, -2

-4

-6

-8 Scheme of sampling of water from the Vakhsh River and its tributaries

The results of chemical analysis of the waters of the tributaries of the Vakhsh river (a) and groundwater from basins of these rivers (b)

a b Isotopic composition of water in the Vakhsh River and tributaries: 1, 2- Garmo glacier; 3 - Surkhob river; 4 – Vakhsh river; 5 –Obikhingou river; 6 – Kyzilsu river; 7 – river

-70

7 -90 4 5 6 3

‰ -110

H,

2 δ

-130 1 2 y = 10.99x + 59.853 R² = 0.9957 -150 -18.5 -17.5 -16.5 -15.5 -14.5 -13.5 δ18O,‰ Isotopic analysis of spring (1, 3, 4, 5) and underground waters (2, 6, 7, 8) the basin of the rivers Muksu, Kizilsu, Surkhob, Obikhingou, accordingly

-70 7 6 8 -80 5 4

Н, %о Н, -90

2 3 δ

-100 2 y = 10x + 39.9 1 R² = 1 -110 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 δ18О, %о Conclusion

 The water - snow objects of the Vakhsh river basin are vulnerable to climate change

 The increasing of the river water volume is the result of small glaciers melting

 The cyclical change of the Vakhsh River water discharge were used for prognosis river water flow by 2050

 The basins of the investigated rivers there are no stationary sources of pollution

 Formation of chemical composition of the rivers water is mainly due to the leaching of mineral rocks

 According to results of on isotopic analyses the main tributaries of the Vakhsh river (Surkhob, Obikhingou) have a glaciers feeds

 The underground waters reservoirs of the Muksu river basin in period of the snowmelt accumulate glacial meltwater and in the dry turn to water supply sources of the Muksu river Reservoir Microclimate Agriculture

Hydroresources Coal Oil Gas

Republic of Tajikistan: Hydropower resources - 527 Bln. kWt∙h Now used only - 5% In perspective- construction many middle and large HPS with reservoirs Mirror area at the optimum highest mark of the water surface of the reservoir 98 km2 Volume: full 10.5 km3 useful 4.5 km3 The length of the coastline of the Reservoir 234 km Water level at highest mark of the water surface of the reservoir 910 m

Nurek Reservoir For establishment influences of Reservoirs on

possible changes of Agroclimatic Resources we spend the analyses of climatic parameters of three

districts with developed Agricultural branches

(Dangara, Fayzabad and Yavan) adjoined to

Nurek HPS with reservoirs The influence of the Nurek reservoir on the microclimate of coastal areas

For the period 1968-2018 meteorological parameters adjoin districts have undergone a significant change

T (oС) - 0.50

Humidity (%) - 7.20

Evaporation (%) - 17.00

Precipitation (%) - 11.00 RECOMMENDATIONS Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Republic of Tajikistan  the organization of additional meteorological and hydrological stations for correct establishment of meteorological conditions and strict accounting of lateral inflows of the main rivers Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan  consideration and revision of irrigation norms of agricultural varieties in connection with climate change and the impact of reservoirs on the formation of the microclimate of the area and the broad involvement of biotechnology for the selection of varieties resistant to climate change Agency for Hydrometeorology and Sanitary-epidemiological service of the Ministry of health of the Republic of Tajikistan  Strengthening control over the quality of river waters in connection with the growing influence of return water from farms Center for Innovation and Renewable Energy of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan  intensification of work on the use of energy of idle discharges of water from reservoirs to produce gaseous hydrogen as carrier of green energy Application of project results

 On behalf of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Republic of Tajikistan the basic principles and technological features of the development of hydrogen energy were presented to the Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan

 At the request of the Agency for Hydrometeorology of the Republic of Tajikistan, applied work has been and is being carried out to monitor and determine the quality of wastewater from industrial and processing enterprises PUBLICATION Inom Normatov, Abulkosim Muminov and Parviz Normatov (2016). Perspective of the Agriculture Development of the Mountain Areas in Modern Condition of Climate Change. Book: Geostatistical and Geospatial Approaches for the Characterization of Natural Resources in the Environment: Challenges, Processes and Strategies. Chapter 4. Raju, N. Janardhana (Ed.), ISBN 978-3-319-18663-4, Jointly Published with Capital Publishing Company, New Delhi, India, 1st ed. 2016, XXIV, 969 p. pp. 931-935. Inom S. Normatov, Abulkosim Muminov, Parviz I. Normatov (2016). The Impact of Water Reservoirs on Biodiversity and Food Security and the Creation of Adaptation Mechanisms. International Science Index International Journal of Environmental, Chemical, Ecological, Geological and Geophysical Engineering Vol.10, No 5, 2016, pp. 564-570. Parviz Normatov, Richard Armstrong, Inom Normatov, Bakhtiyor Markaev (2016). The Hydrological Characteristics of Tributaries, Vakhsh and Rivers of in Condition of Climate Change. J. Hydrology (accepted). Parviz NORMATOV, Bakhtiyor MARKAEV, Inom NORMATOV. MONITORING OF CHANGE OF THE VAKHSH RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES HYDROLOGY IN CONDITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE// International Journal of Management and Applied Science, ISSN: 2394-7926 Volume-2, Issue-10, Special Issue-1, pp.55-58. Normatov P., Muminov A., Normatov I. Sh. (2017). Meteorology and Hydrology of the Tributaries basins of the Transboundary Amudarya River in condition of Climate Change //J. Modern Environmental Sci. and Engineering, V.64, No 5, pp. 86-97. Normatov P.I., Muminov A.O., Normatov I. Sh. (2017). Investigation of the Isotope composition of water (δ2Н, δ18О) Transboundary Rivers of Zeravshan, Vakhsh and their tributaries// Georg Bull., No 4(43), pp.134-141. Normatov P., Narzulloev N., Normatov I. Sh. (2017). Ecological aspects of the Transboundary Rivers water resource management of the Central Asia // J. Modern Environmental Sci. and Engineering, V.64, No 3, pp. 134- 142. Normatov P., Muminov A., Normatov I. Sh. (2017). Meteorology and Hydrology of the Tributaries basins of the Transboundary Amudarya River in condition of Climate Change //J. Modern Environmental Sci. and Engineering, V.64, No 5, pp. 86-97. Normatov I. Sh., Markaev B.A., et al.( 2018).Hydrochemistry and isotopic composition of the Vakhsh river and its tributaries // Proc. Rus. St. Hydromet Univ. -- №50. - P. 81-87 Normatov I. Sh., Muminov A.O., et al.(2018). Study the isotopic composition of water (δ2Н, δ18O) of Transboundary rivers , Vakhsh and its tributaries // Geograph. Bull. - 2018, - No. 4, pp.42-51 Normatov P.I., Frumin G.T., Normatov I. Sh., Markaev B.A. (2018). Hydrochemistry and isotope composition of the Vakhsh river and tributaries // Proc. Rus. St. Hydromet. Univ. A theor. Research journal. 2018. Is. 50. pp. 81-87. Normatov P., Normatov I. Monitoring of meteorological, hydrological conditions and water quality of the main tributaries of the Transboundary Amu Darya River. In Book: INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONS. ISBN 978-953-51-5889-9

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