Eritrea: Scenarios for Future Transition Africa Report N°200 | 28 March 2013 International Crisis Group Headquarters Avenue Louise 149 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 Fax: +32 2 502 50 38
[email protected] Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... i Recommendations..................................................................................................................... iii I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. The Beginning of the End for President Isaias Afwerki? ................................................ 3 A. The Incident at Forto ................................................................................................. 4 B. 2012: The President’s Annus Horribilis? ................................................................... 6 III. The State of Eritrea ........................................................................................................... 10 A. The Foundation of a One-Man State ......................................................................... 11 1. The Dream Disintegrates ..................................................................................... 12 2. The Stifling of Dissent .......................................................................................... 13 3. The Removal of Checks and Balances .................................................................