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The Transmission of Monetary Policy Through Redistributions and Durable Purchases

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The Transmission of Monetary Policy Through Redistributions and Durable Purchases The Transmission of Monetary Policy through Redistributions and Durable Purchases Vincent Sterk and Silvana Tenreyro January 2016 CEP Working Paper 2016/1 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Vincent Sterk is a lecturer (assistant professor) in macroeconomics at the Economics Department of University College London. Prior to that, he was a PhD student at the University of Amsterdam and an economist at De Nederlandsche Bank (the Dutch Central Bank). His work aims to better understand the importance of fluctuations in aggregate employment, and in particular, the role of cyclical swings in house prices, firm start-ups and precautionary savings in them. A second line of research focuses on gaining a better understanding of monetary transmission mechanisms. A common theme in both lines of research is to explore the importance of heterogeneity among economic agents and non- linear effects. In 2011, Sterk received a medal for best PhD dissertation in economics, awarded once every three years by the Dutch Royal Society for Economics (KVS). Silvana Tenreyro is Professor in Economics at the London School of Economics. She received her Ph. D. in Economics from Harvard University in 2002 and an M.A. from the same institution in 1999. She is Co-Director and Board Member of the Review of Economic Studies. In the past Tenreyro worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and served as external MPC member for the Central Bank of Mauritius, Director of the IGC Macroeconomics Programme, Chair of Women in Economics Committee of the European Economic Association, Member at Large of the European Economic Association, Panel Member for Economic Policy, and Associate Editor for the Journal of the European Economic Association, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and the Economic Journal. She is a Lead Academic at the Centre for Macroeconomics, Research Associate at the Center of Economic Performance and at the Center for Economic Policy Research, and academic visitor at the Bank of England. Her main research interests are Macroeconomic Development and Monetary Policy. The CEP Working Paper Series is published by the Council on Economic Policies (CEP) — an international economic policy think tank for sustainability focused on fiscal, monetary, and trade policy. Publications in this series are subject to a prepublication peer review to ensure analytical quality. The views expressed in the papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of CEP or its board. Working papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicit comments and further debate. For additional information about this series or to submit a paper please contact Council on Economic Policies, Seefeldstrasse 60, 8008 Zurich, Switzerland, Phone: +41 44 252 3300, www.cepweb.org [email protected] ABSTRACT This paper studies a redistribution channel for the transmission of monetary policy. Using a tractable OLG setting in which the government is a net debtor, we show that standard open market operations (OMO) conducted by Central Banks have significant revaluation effects that alter the level and distribution of wealth in the economy and the real interest rate. Specifically, expansionary OMO generate a negative wealth effect (the private sector as a whole is a net creditor to the government), increasing households’ incentives to save for retirement and pushing down the real interest rate. This, in turn, leads to a substitution towards durables, generating a temporary boom in the durable good sector. With search and matching frictions, a form of productive investment is added to the model and the fall in interest rates causes an increase in labour demand, raising aggregate employment. The mechanism can mimic the empirical responses of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy interventions. The model shows that different monetary interventions (e.g., OMO versus helicopter drops) can have sharply different effects on activity. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND DISCLAIMER For helpful comments, we would like to thank Marios Angeletos, Marco Bassetto, Francesco Caselli, Larry Christiano, Carlos Garriga, Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler, Bernardo Guimaraes, Patrick Kehoe, Amir Kermani, Pete Klenow, Per Krusell, David Laibson, Francesco Lippi, Christopher Palmer, Michael Peters, Monika Piazzesi, Morten Ravn, Ricardo Reis, Martin Schneider, Rob Shimer, Harald Uhlig, Jaume Ventura, and seminar participants at LSE, Stanford, Berkeley, CREI, UAB, UCL, Mannheim, Sveriges Riksbank, EIEF, HECER, SED 2014, the Northwestern-UCL conference 2014, the 7th Nordic Summer Symposium in Macroeconomics, the Council on Economic Policies – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis – Washington University workshop on “Monetary Policy and the Distribution of Income and Wealth”, and the 2015 annual conference at De Nederlandsche Bank. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 2 Relation to the Literature .................................................................................................. 3 3 Empirical Evidence ............................................................................................................. 6 3.1 Monetary expansions and the response of durables and prices .............................. 6 3.2 High-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks ......................................... 8 3.3 Redistributive effects of monetary policy ................................................................. 9 4 Monetary policy shocks in a tractable heterogeneous agents model ............................ 11 4.1 Agents and demographics ....................................................................................... 12 4.2 Old agents ................................................................................................................ 13 4.3 Young agents ........................................................................................................... 14 4.4 Firms ........................................................................................................................ 14 4.5 Central bank ............................................................................................................. 15 4.6 Treasury ................................................................................................................... 15 4.7 Market clearing and equilibrium ............................................................................. 16 4.8 Adding search and matching frictions ..................................................................... 17 4.9 Absence of wealth effects in a representative agent model .................................. 19 5 Quantitative simulations ................................................................................................. 21 5.1 Parameter values ..................................................................................................... 22 5.2 The dynamic effects of open market operations .................................................... 24 5.3 Helicopter drops ...................................................................................................... 27 6 Concluding remarks ......................................................................................................... 30 References .............................................................................................................................. 30 Appendix ............................................................................................................................... 34 A. The response of different demographic groups ............................................................. 34 B. Model derivations ........................................................................................................... 37 1 INTRODUCTION A central question in monetary economics is how monetary policy interventions transmit to the real economy. This paper contributes to the literature by quantitatively studying a redistribution channel for the transmission of monetary policy that has been unduly glossed over by the literature. Using a tractable quantitative model, the paper shows that this redistribution channel can account for a significant fraction of the empirical response of key macroeconomic aggregates to monetary policy interventions. An important element for the transmission channel we emphasize is the rather uncontroversial assumption (applicable to the United States and other industrialized countries) that the government is a big net debtor in the economy (while households as a whole are net creditors1). Overlapping generations of households consume durable and non-durable goods and work and save for retirement through bond, money holdings, and durable goods.2 A temporary expansion in monetary policy carried out through open market operations (OMO), whereby the central bank purchases government bonds, pushes down the nominal interest rate and leads to a temporary increase in prices. This price adjustment, needed to close the gap between money supply and demand, causes a downward revaluation of the government debt, generating a negative wealth effect for the household sector.3 The fall in private wealth induces households to save a larger fraction of their income, as they seek to restore their retirement savings, pushing down the real interest rate. This in turn leads to a substitution towards durable goods, generating a boom in the durable good sector. With search and matching
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