Bard College Bard Digital Commons Senior Projects Spring 2016 Bard Undergraduate Senior Projects Spring 2016 Assessing the Theory of Demographics as Destiny & Patterns of Bloc Voting in the United States Nathan Benjamin Susman Bard College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.bard.edu/senproj_s2016 Part of the American Politics Commons, Civic and Community Engagement Commons, Community- Based Research Commons, Models and Methods Commons, Policy Design, Analysis, and Evaluation Commons, Policy History, Theory, and Methods Commons, Politics and Social Change Commons, Public Administration Commons, Public Affairs Commons, Public Policy Commons, Quantitative, Qualitative, Comparative, and Historical Methodologies Commons, Race and Ethnicity Commons, and the Social Statistics Commons This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License. Recommended Citation Susman, Nathan Benjamin, "Assessing the Theory of Demographics as Destiny & Patterns of Bloc Voting in the United States" (2016). Senior Projects Spring 2016. 386. https://digitalcommons.bard.edu/senproj_s2016/386 This Open Access work is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been provided to you by Bard College's Stevenson Library with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this work in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights- holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Assessing The Theory of Demographics As Destiny & Patterns of Bloc Voting in The United States Senior Project submitted to the Division of Social Studies of Bard College By Nathan Susman Annandale-on-Hudson, New York May 2016 Page !1 of !90 Table of Contents I. Introduction, Part One: The Browning (and Greying) of America…………………………………..3 II. Introduction, Part Two: The “Four Basic Assumptions” of the “Demographics as Destiny” Theory…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7 III. Defining Demographics……………………………………………………………………………………….17 IV. Minority Turnout Strategy: Democrats vs. Republicans……………………………………………..42 V. Minority Turnout and the 2016 General Election………………………………………………….…..60 VI. Voter Fraud and Gerrymandering………………………………………………………………………….69 VII. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………….88 Page !2 of !90 I. Introduction, Part One: The Browning (and Greying) of America The demographics of the United States of America are changing. As it is now, Black Americans comprise 13.6% of the total U.S. population1, while Hispanic or Latino Americans are reported to be 16.3% of the population according to the 2010 Census2. This is up from around 12 percentage points, respectively, for each these groups in the 2000 census. Minorities are participating in the electoral process in increasing numbers: In 2012, 17,813,000 blacks turned out to vote (a net increase of 1.68 million voters over 2008) while 11,188,000 Latinos cast ballots (a net increase of 1.44 million over 2008), according to a U.S. Census report)3. That same report notes that for the first time, the percentage of age-eligible blacks who cast votes, 66.2%, was higher than that of white americans, 64.1%. It should be noted that these figures refer to turn-out in a presidential election—with a Black candidate, the first minority candidate to be nominated by a major political party, and the first such candidate to win a presidential election— but it is also true that the rate of black voter turnout has been increasing steadily over the past 20 years. It would be understandable to regard these results as somewhat exceptional, but what cannot be disputed is that America is becoming an 1 "Black Population." Encyclopedia of the U.S. Census (2012): 3. Web. 2 "Hispanic Population." Encyclopedia of the U.S. Census (2012): 3. Web. 3 Jealous, Ben. “True South: Unleashing Democracy in the Black Belt 50 Years After Freedom Summer”. Center for American Progress. June 2014. Web. Page !3 of !90 older, darker nation. In fact, the United States is projected to become a majority-minority country by 20504. This means that there will be more black and brown people in the U.S. than there will be whites. A U.S. News and World Report article states that of the 20 Million children in 2014 who were under five years old, 50.2% of them were nonwhites. Of these 20 million children, 22% are black, and 15% are Latino, with the rest being Asians or other nonwhite groups. More than half of all kids under the age of 18 are projected to be nonwhite by 20205. America is a much more diverse country than it once was. With a record 14.6 percent of all new marriages in 2012 being inter-race, attitudes regarding miscegenation have also significantly shifted. Even in lily-white Iowa, with its 91% Caucasian population6, demographics are changing. Children of a race other than white and/or who are Hispanic represent 21.1 percent of Iowa’s 0-5 population and 17.2 percent of the 6-17 population, but only 2.9 percent of the 65-plus population. Over the last two decades, the Hispanic young-child population in Iowa has more than doubled, and, in fact, people of Hispanic descent are now the largest minority group in the state. Growth has not been limited merely to Hispanics, since all other races, including those who 4 Wazwaz, Noor. "It's Official: The U.S. Is Becoming a Minority-Majority Nation." US News. U.S.News & World Report, 06 July 2015. 5 Ibid. 6 Grier, Peter. "Too White? Iowa Is 91% White, but Does That Mean It Shouldn't Vote First?" The Christian Science Monitor. The Christian Science Monitor, 03 Jan. 2012. Page !4 of !90 identify as multiple races, have seen population growth7. Iowa’s population is projected to continue becoming more diverse over the next decade, although at a slower rate than during the beginning of the century. The growth of minority communities is a key component of overall population growth in the state. Without growth among children of color and/ or of Hispanic descent, Iowa’s young child population would have declined statewide and in 70 of 99 counties. An equally compelling trend-line to study is the change in demographics in terms of age, which can affect the strength of the narrative of change in party alignment along racial lines in ways that may not always be linear. According to Pew Research Center, American fertility is at an all-time low, with 62.5 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. A University of Nebraska- Omaha study based on recently released data from births in 2013 has recently challenged conventional wisdom by suggesting that fertility rates amongst different ethnic groups in America are now much more similar than in the recent past, with Hispanic birth rates declining every year between 2007 and 2013 to 83 births per thousand women ages 13-44, while black non-Hispanics give birth at a rate of 65 births per one thousand women in the same age group. Prior to the recession, the black fertility rate was nearly 30 points below the Hispanic rate. The U.S. white non- Hispanic fertility rate has held stable since 1990, with 60 births per 1,000 women. Thanks to advances in medical technology, one in seven Americans was over the age of 65 in 2014, and in 15 7 it should be noted that the Census’s identification of people of two or more races is a fairly recent development, so it is difficult to determine objectively what percentage increases mean in this case. The possible consequences of this development are at this moment too speculative to be included in this assessment of the debate regarding the significance of demographics in determining general election outcomes. Page !5 of !90 years, that will change to one in five Americans8. The age of America’s population has increased at an unabated pace, with a median age over 40 years old in many states, and America’s population also grew at a faster rate in the older ages than in the younger ages from 2000-2010. According to the U.S. Census, “Between 2000 and 2010, the population under the age of 18 grew at a rate of 2.6 percent. The growth rate was even slower for those aged 18 to 44 (0.6 percent). This contrasts with the substantially faster growth rates seen at older ages. The population aged 45 to 64 grew at a rate of 31.5 percent. The large growth in this age group is primarily due to the aging of the Baby Boom population. Finally, the population aged 65 and over also grew at a faster rate (15.1 percent) than the population under age 45.”9 The graying of America, coupled with the inherent differences between how young and old people vote, both within and across racial lines, will strongly affect the 2016 general election and all elections hereafter. II. Introduction, Part Two: The “Four Basic Assumptions” of the “Demographics as Destiny” Theory After the election of president Barack Obama in 2008, many professional prognosticators predicted a bleak future for the Republican party. The exit poll showed that President Obama strengthened the party’s hold on blacks and Hispanics, as well as young voters, constituent groups that pundits claimed were to become the Democratic Party’s core electorate. He carried Hispanics 8 "Public Health and Aging: Trends in Aging --- United States and Worldwide." Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, n.d. Web. 9 “Age and Sex Composition: 2010.” U.S. Census (2010): 3. Web. Page !6 of !90 67 to 31 percent, despite Republican opponent John McCain's support of comprehensive immigration legislation (in 2012, he carried Hispanics 71-27%)10.