Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin and Citizen Science Opportunities

Annual Water Course February 13, 2018 Dr. Gigi A. Richard Hutchins Water Center at CMU Professor, Geology 2018 Water Year

Oct 1 Sept 30 2017 2018

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2017 2018

Water year is named for the year in which it ends How to define “normal”? We often compare hydrologic and meteorological data to the average of a recent 30-yr period

Warmer, drier

and lower

1972 1982 1991 2001 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1971 streamflow than 1970s 1971-2000 = 30 years

1981-2010 = 30 years “The new normal” = warmer, drier, lower streamflow Image credit: Colo. Foundation for Water Education ~80% of Colorado's water = Colorado River water Importance of the Colorado River

Water for nearly 40 million people Metropolitan areas have a combined metro gdp of $1.7 trillion (12th largest economy in the world) International treaty w/ Mexico and interstate compact between seven states Irrigates 2.2 million hectares of land (15% of US crops & 13% of livestock)

Generates more than 4,200 MW of electricity Recreation & tourism

A “ribbon of green” – riparian areas in the Southwest make up less than 3% of the landscape, but provide critical resources for over 75% of wildlife

from US Bureau of Reclamation, 2012, Colorado River Basin Study Water Supply of the Colorado River Basin Colorado Average Precipitation  15.5 in/yr

Grand Junction Boulder  20.7 in/yr  9.4 in/yr Denver  15.5 in/yr Fort Collins  16.1 in/yr

Breckenridge (Elev. 9,600’) Annual high temperature: 48.9°F Annual low temperature: 18.1°F Average annual rainfall: 20.26 inch Av. annual snowfall: 163.6 inch (Period of Record : 01/01/1893 to 05/31/2016, from wrcc.dri.edu) Climate & Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin

34% of watershed receives < 10 in/yr

84% of watershed receives < 20 in/yr

Most of the runoff is produced by only 15% of the drainage area Snow and Snowmelt Snowmelt is a significant contributor to runoff and water supplies over much of the Northern Hemisphere, and changes in snowmelt runoff will be one of the most pronounced hydrologic responses to global warming. Dingman, 2015, Physical Hydrology

October 2, 2017 Hydrologic Importance of Snow

About 1/6 of the world’s population gets 50-100% of can be up to 65% on north runoff from snow coast of Alaska

In the western US, 80-90% of renewable water comes from snow

(From Ed Kim, NASA, Snow-EX)

A smaller proportion of snowmelt than of rainfall is evaporated and transpired

Snowfall contributes proportionally more to runoff and groundwater recharge (From Dingman 2015)

From Dingman 2015 Snow Properties A granular porous medium

Solid ice + air (+ liquid water) = 3-phase system

From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US Snow properties

Snow density = mass of snow/volume of snow

Percentage of water content

From Judson and Doesken, 2000, Density of Freshly Fallen Snow in the Central Rocky Mountains, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 7, pp. 1577-1587. Snow properties

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

water content Snowmelt process

From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US

From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US Snowmelt process

Snow melts from the top down • Solar radiation • Air temperature • Wind

From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US Upper How does this Colorado precipitation River Basin regime translate into timing of streamflow? Fassnacht 2006

Lower Colorado River Basin

Annual Hydrograph at CO-UT state line

Data from usgs.gov Colorado River at CO-UT State Line

(1951-2013) Colorado River near 29 Road in Grand Junction

1983-1986 were wet years 1983 in the http://grandcanyon.com/ Grand Canyon

(Read The Emerald Mile by Kevin Fedarko) Streamflow data from usgs.gov https://www.canyonology.com/running-grand-canyon-1983-flood/ Colorado River at CO-UT State Line

Yampa River at Deerlodge, June 11, 2011, 23, 600 cfs

(1951-2013) 2011 6th highest flood Flood at this gage

Yampa River, June 8, 2011, 19,600 cfs at Maybell

Streamflow data from usgs.gov Colorado River at CO-UT State Line

2012 Drought

(1951-2013)

Lowest peak flow on record at this gage

Streamflow data from usgs.gov Variability2013 in timing and distribution of precipitation resultDrought? in variable streamflow and availabilityFlood! of surface water supply Streamflow data from usgs.gov

Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ 80% of the Water

80-90% of the Population What do we do when we don’t have water when and

where we need it?21 From Colorado’s Water Plan, Draft, December 10, 2014, Prepared by Colorado Water Conservation Board Lake Granby (539,800 ac-ft), Shadow Mtn. (18, 400 ac-ft) and Grand Lake

3.8 maf

Blue Mesa Dam and Reservoir 1.1 maf 940,700 ac-ft capacity

Photos from USBR

1.7 maf

Dillon Dam and Reservoir 257,000 ac-ft capacity McPhee Dam and Reservoir 381,195 ac-ft capacity 1.8 maf 2.9 maf

From High Country News “…most regulated Central Arizona Project river in the world” 3.8 maf

1.1 maf

Total storage capacity is now 60 http://www.usbr.gov/lc million ac-ft  about 4 times the 1.7 maf long-term mean Glen Canyon Dam, annual flow at Lees 1963 Lake Powell 27 million 27 maf Consumptive use has Ferry (USBR 2012) ac-ft storage capacity 29 maf All-American Canal Photos by Peter McBride increased to about Photo from Nasa.gov 2.9 maf 90% of the long-term Colorado River Aqueduct averageLos Angeles annual & San Diegoflow at Yuma (Schmidt 2007)

Hoover Dam, 1935 Lake Mead 29 million ac-ft storage capacity http://www.nydailynews.com/ Photo by Peter McBride From High Country News 1983 Flood

Natural Variability Controlled Variability

Filling Lake Powell

Oct. 1921 Hydrology Resulting impacts Peak flows  Base flows  Ecological – riparian & aquatic Total flow Invasive species Habitat alteration

Sediment supply & channel morphology

Water Quality 4 endemic endangered fish species Channel Q T DO simplification Salinity  Selenium 

From VanSteeter & Pitlick 1998 How do we use water in Colorado?

Use ac-ft/yr Public Supply 950,000 Domestic Fresh 42,500 Irrigation 10,900,000 Livestock 41,300 Aquaculture 137,000 Industrial 146,000 Mining 32,000 Irrigation Thermoelectric 86,300 89% Total 12,335,100

Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp. Irrigation withdrawals, 2010

#2 ID #1 CA #3 CO

755 mgd 563 mgd

703 mgd

579 mgd

Are we in a drought? Precipitation

2017 Water Year 2018 Water Year

Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ WY 2018 Snowpack

Above Average

2018

About Average

Below Average

2018

Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ Current Soil Moisture (from models)

Green = Moist

Yellow/red = Dry

Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ Current Storage

Blue Mesa Reservoir Summer 2017

Maps from https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/ Temperature

Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/

Why snow monitoring?

Does temperature really matter? May1, 2017 WY 2017 Snowpack

Above 2017 Average

About Average

2017

Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ 2017

2018

From https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/ 2017 2011 2012

2018

From https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/ From https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/

Importance of monitoring snowpack

Snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest lower elevation snowpack in mountain regions is most sensitive to drought and warming temperatures

In Colorado, most watershed monitoring occurs in the high elevations

Most streamflow monitoring is at lower elevation

Image courtesy of Stephanie Kampf and Steven Fassnacht. https://coloradoencyclopedia.org/article/snow Snow monitoring network

Map adapted from Hammond et al. 2017

from Hammond et al. 2017 Results from 2016 Water Year

During the 2016 water year, the Front Range sites generally had deeper snowpack and longer snow duration MODIS satellite than the Grand Mesa sites imagery showing changes in snow at Snow cover remained at the Front Front Range (left) Range persistent site into June on the and Grand Mesa Front Range, whereas much of the (right) study snow at the persistent site on the watersheds from Grand Mesa had already melted by April to June 2016 early June. (from Hammond et al. 2017).

Instrument failures at some of the Grand Mesa sites led to some data loss The Future…Climate Change

Projected annual temperature change for Colorado under RCP 4.5 for 2035-2064 compared with the 1971-2000 average.

The dots show the median change across the model runs, and the boxes show the range between the 25th percentile of the model runs and the 75th percentile and the bars show the 10th and 90th percentiles. As Temperature  Evaporation will 

Crop transpiration 

Evaporation from soils 

Lake Powell Irrigation 

Streamflow  Annual Evaporation ~600,000 ac-ft/yr Impact on Earlier peak streamflow Projected monthly runoff change for Colorado River Headwaters for 2035-2064 compared to 1971-2000

Mar-May  Jun-Sep  The Future Increased temperatures Earlier peak runoff and Increased length Increased lower late- of growing season evapotranspiration summer flows

Decreased Increased water Increased annual runoff demand frequency and severity of Lower wildfire Increased Streamflow vulnerability to beetle Decreased Decreased infestation water quality overall water supply

Recreation impacts – skiing, fishing, boating Increased groundwater usage

From Colorado’s Water Plan, Draft, December 10, 2014, Prepared by Colorado Water Conservation Board Planning for Resilience

Variability in P & Q “The Gap”

Global Climate Change Increased temperature Increased variability

USBR 2012 Funded by: Collaborators: • Kira Puntenney • Dr. Stephanie Kampf • Dr. Greg Newman Support from: • Dr. Michael L e f s k y INTERMITTENT STREAMS

Streams that do not flow continuously in space or time

Photos by John Hammond CROWD SOURCING

STREAMFLOW PRESENCE/ABSENCE OBSERVATIONS CROWD SOURCING

JOIN NAVIGATE RECORD

STREAMFLOW PRESENCE/ABSENCE OBSERVATIONS JOIN JOIN

streamtracker.org NAVIGATE

ROADS TRAILS

MOBILE APPLICATION or G P S U N I T Established

NAVIGATE l o c a t i o n s

DOWNLOAD Established Or Create New Location NAVIGATE l o c a t i o n s

Stream Tracker locations nearby STANDING FLOW WATER NO FLOW RECORD

M O B I L E APPLICATION or P A P E R DATASHEETS ENTERED ONLINE RECORD

Easily view data to track change FLOW over time NO FLOW Changes in flow Changes in flow Major changes in flow from precipitation 367 sites 2,217 observations EMBRACE THE SCIENCE Looking toward a resilient water future for the Colorado River Basin… Thank you

coloradomesa.edu/water-center Yampa River, June 2011, G. Richard