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Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin and Citizen Science Opportunities

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Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin and Citizen Science Opportunities Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin and Citizen Science Opportunities Annual Water Course February 13, 2018 Dr. Gigi A. Richard Hutchins Water Center at CMU Professor, Geology 2018 Water Year Oct 1 Sept 30 2017 2018 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2017 2018 Water year is named for the year in which it ends How to define “normal”? todefine How 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 data to and meteorological hydrologic oftencompare We 1976 1977 1978 1979 1971 1980 1981 30 of a recent the average - 2000 = 30 years 30 2000 = 1982 1983 1984 “The new normal” = warmer, drier, lower streamflow lower drier, warmer, = normal” new “The 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1981 1990 1991 - 2010 = 30 years 30 2010 = 1992 1993 1994 - 1995 yr period 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 drier Warmer, streamflow streamflow than 1970s than 2003 and lower 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Image credit: Colo. Foundation for Water Education ~80% of Colorado's water = Colorado River water Importance of the Colorado River Water for nearly 40 million people Metropolitan areas have a combined metro gdp of $1.7 trillion (12th largest economy in the world) International treaty w/ Mexico and interstate compact between seven states Irrigates 2.2 million hectares of land (15% of US crops & 13% of livestock) Generates more than 4,200 MW of electricity Recreation & tourism A “ribbon of green” – riparian areas in the Southwest make up less than 3% of the landscape, but provide critical resources for over 75% of wildlife from US Bureau of Reclamation, 2012, Colorado River Basin Study Water Supply of the Colorado River Basin Colorado Average Precipitation 15.5 in/yr Grand Junction Boulder 20.7 in/yr 9.4 in/yr Denver 15.5 in/yr Fort Collins 16.1 in/yr Breckenridge (Elev. 9,600’) Annual high temperature: 48.9°F Annual low temperature: 18.1°F Average annual rainfall: 20.26 inch Av. annual snowfall: 163.6 inch (Period of Record : 01/01/1893 to 05/31/2016, from wrcc.dri.edu) Climate & Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin 34% of watershed receives < 10 in/yr 84% of watershed receives < 20 in/yr Most of the runoff is produced by only 15% of the drainage area Snow and Snowmelt Snowmelt is a significant contributor to runoff and water supplies over much of the Northern Hemisphere, and changes in snowmelt runoff will be one of the most pronounced hydrologic responses to global warming. Dingman, 2015, Physical Hydrology October 2, 2017 Hydrologic Importance of Snow About 1/6 of the world’s population gets 50-100% of can be up to 65% on north runoff from snow coast of Alaska In the western US, 80-90% of renewable water comes from snow (From Ed Kim, NASA, Snow-EX) A smaller proportion of snowmelt than of rainfall is evaporated and transpired Snowfall contributes proportionally more to runoff and groundwater recharge (From Dingman 2015) From Dingman 2015 Snow Properties A granular porous medium Solid ice + air (+ liquid water) = 3-phase system From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US Snow properties Snow density = mass of snow/volume of snow Percentage of water content From Judson and Doesken, 2000, Density of Freshly Fallen Snow in the Central Rocky Mountains, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 7, pp. 1577-1587. Snow properties Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) water content Snowmelt process From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US Snowmelt process Snow melts from the top down • Solar radiation • Air temperature • Wind From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US Upper How does this Colorado precipitation River Basin regime translate into timing of streamflow? Fassnacht 2006 Lower Colorado River Basin Annual Hydrograph at CO-UT state line Data from usgs.gov Colorado River at CO-UT State Line (1951-2013) Colorado River near 29 Road in Grand Junction 1983-1986 were wet years 1983 in the http://grandcanyon.com/ Grand Canyon (Read The Emerald Mile by Kevin Fedarko) Streamflow data from usgs.gov https://www.canyonology.com/running-grand-canyon-1983-flood/ Colorado River at CO-UT State Line Yampa River at Deerlodge, June 11, 2011, 23, 600 cfs (1951-2013) 2011 6th highest flood Flood at this gage Yampa River, June 8, 2011, 19,600 cfs at Maybell Streamflow data from usgs.gov Colorado River at CO-UT State Line 2012 Drought (1951-2013) Lowest peak flow on record at this gage Streamflow data from usgs.gov Variability2013 in timing and distribution of precipitation resultDrought? in variable streamflow and availabilityFlood! of surface water supply Streamflow data from usgs.gov Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ 80% of the Water 80-90% of the Population What do we do when we don’t have water when and where we need it?21 From Colorado’s Water Plan, Draft, December 10, 2014, Prepared by Colorado Water Conservation Board Lake Granby (539,800 ac-ft), Shadow Mtn. (18, 400 ac-ft) and Grand Lake 3.8 maf Blue Mesa Dam and Reservoir 1.1 maf 940,700 ac-ft capacity Photos from USBR 1.7 maf Dillon Dam and Reservoir 257,000 ac-ft capacity McPhee Dam and Reservoir 381,195 ac-ft capacity 1.8 maf 2.9 maf From High Country News “…most regulated Central Arizona Project river in the world” 3.8 maf 1.1 maf Total storage capacity is now 60 http://www.usbr.gov/lc million ac-ft about 4 times the 1.7 maf long-term mean Glen Canyon Dam, annual flow at Lees 1963 Lake Powell 27 million 27 maf Consumptive use has Ferry (USBR 2012) ac-ft storage capacity 29 maf All-American Canal Photos by Peter McBride increased to about Photo from Nasa.gov 2.9 maf 90% of the long-term Colorado River Aqueduct averageLos Angeles annual & San Diegoflow at Yuma (Schmidt 2007) Hoover Dam, 1935 Lake Mead 29 million ac-ft storage capacity http://www.nydailynews.com/ Photo by Peter McBride From High Country News 1983 Flood Natural Variability Controlled Variability Filling Lake Powell Oct. 1921 Hydrology Resulting impacts Peak flows Base flows Ecological – riparian & aquatic Total flow Invasive species Habitat alteration Sediment supply & channel morphology Water Quality 4 endemic endangered fish species Channel Q T DO simplification Salinity Selenium From VanSteeter & Pitlick 1998 How do we use water in Colorado? Use ac-ft/yr Public Supply 950,000 Domestic Fresh 42,500 Irrigation 10,900,000 Livestock 41,300 Aquaculture 137,000 Industrial 146,000 Mining 32,000 Irrigation Thermoelectric 86,300 89% Total 12,335,100 Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp. Irrigation withdrawals, 2010 #2 ID #1 CA #3 CO 755 mgd 563 mgd 703 mgd 579 mgd Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp. Current Water Conditions Are we in a drought? Precipitation 2017 Water Year 2018 Water Year Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ WY 2018 Snowpack Above Average 2018 About Average Below Average 2018 Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ Current Soil Moisture (from models) Green = Moist Yellow/red = Dry Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ Current Storage Blue Mesa Reservoir Summer 2017 Maps from https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/ Temperature Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ Why snow monitoring? Does temperature really matter? May1, 2017 WY 2017 Snowpack Above 2017 Average About Average 2017 Maps from http://climate.colostate.edu/~drought/ 2017 2018 From https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/ 2017 2011 2012 2018 From https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/ From https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/ Importance of monitoring snowpack Snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest lower elevation snowpack in mountain regions is most sensitive to drought and warming temperatures In Colorado, most watershed monitoring occurs in the high elevations Most streamflow monitoring is at lower elevation Image courtesy of Stephanie Kampf and Steven Fassnacht. https://coloradoencyclopedia.org/article/snow Snow monitoring network Map adapted from Hammond et al. 2017 from Hammond et al. 2017 Results from 2016 Water Year During the 2016 water year, the Front Range sites generally had deeper snowpack and longer snow duration MODIS satellite than the Grand Mesa sites imagery showing changes in snow at Snow cover remained at the Front Front Range (left) Range persistent site into June on the and Grand Mesa Front Range, whereas much of the (right) study snow at the persistent site on the watersheds from Grand Mesa had already melted by April to June 2016 early June. (from Hammond et al. 2017). Instrument failures at some of the Grand Mesa sites led to some data loss The Future…Climate Change Projected annual temperature change for Colorado under RCP 4.5 for 2035-2064 compared with the 1971-2000 average. The dots show the median change across the model runs, and the boxes show the range between the 25th percentile of the model runs and the 75th percentile and the bars show the 10th and 90th percentiles.
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