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Millenni@ls politically unclaimed generation THE REASON-RUPE SPRING 2014 MILLENNIAL SURVEY About This Report The Reason-Rupe 2014 Millennial Survey was conducted by the Reason Foundation and made possible thanks to generous support from the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation. YouGov conducted the survey collecting responses from 2,000 young adults ages 18-29 between February 28 and March 11, 2014. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.4%. Special thanks to Tyler Koteskey, Yuvi Delgado, and Zachary Christensen for their research and creative assistance, and to the many individuals who provided valuable input into the survey design and research process. Released July 10, 2014 Polling Director Emily Ekins [email protected] Creative Design William Neff, Carlos Gutierrez Contact Kristen Kelley, Communications Specialist [email protected] Cover page design by Carlos Gutierrez 2 Table of Contents I. Key Findings ....................................................................................................... 5 II. Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 8 III. Who Are the Millennials? .............................................................................. 12 IV. How Do Millennials Describe Their Political Views? ................................... 14 Millennials’ Political Ideology ...................................................................................................... 16 Millennials Tell Us What Their Political Label Means to Them ................................................... 18 Ideological Self-Placement on Economic and Social Issues .................................................. 24 V. Who Are Millennials Planning to Vote For? .................................................. 28 Would Millennials Vote for a Non-Traditional Candidate? ...................................................... 29 VI. How Much Confidence Do Millennials Have in the President, Congress, and Major Political Parties? ............................................................................... 31 Presidential and Congressional Approval ................................................................................ 31 Trust in Political Parties .................................................................................................................. 32 VII. What Are Millennials’ Views on the Role of Government? ....................... 36 What Do Millennials Think Government Should Do (Or Not Do) ............................................. 37 To Stimulate the Economy, Millennials Support Policies that Limit and Policies that Expand Governmental Scope ..........................................................................................................................42 Millennials Don’t Want Government to Promote Traditional Values ............................................................43 VIII. Do Millennials Have Confidence in Government? .................................. 44 IX. Do Millennials Want “Big Government”? .................................................... 46 Are Non-white Millennials More Likely To Support Large Government? ................................ 48 Millennials Respond More Favorably to Concrete Proposals to Limit ..........................................................49 Government Than Abstract References About Government’s Size .............................................................49 X. What Are Millennials’ Views of Business? ..................................................... 51 Millennials Like Profit and Competition .............................................................................................................52 For Millennials, Business Is Not The Enemy.........................................................................................................53 For Millennials, Less Expensive Imports May Trump American-Made ...........................................................53 XI. What Kind of Economic System Do Millennials Want? .............................. 55 52% of Millennials Pick Capitalism over Socialism; 64% Prefer a Free Market Economy Over a Govt-Managed Economy ...................................................................................................55 Millennials May Not Know What Socialism Means ..........................................................................................56 Support for Socialism Peaks in College ............................................................................................................57 Millennials Like Markets But Aren’t Sure if they Promote Opportunity ..........................................................58 3 XII. How Do Millennials Think the Economic System Works? .......................... 61 Millennials Aren’t Sure Whether a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats ............................................................................61 Millennials Say Hard Work Pays Off ...................................................................................................................63 Do Millennials Believe in Self-Determination? ............................................................................ 63 Millennials Believe Self-Determination Drives Wealth and Success ..............................................................63 Millennials Primarily Blame Personal Decisions for Poverty, But Also Think Environmental Factors Are Important ...............................................................................................................65 Do Beliefs About Self-Determination Help Explain Political Attitudes? ................................... 66 Beliefs About Self-Determination Tied to Economic Ideology and Partisanship .........................................68 XIII. Is Experience with Discrimination Tied to Political Attitudes? ................. 69 Experience with Discrimination May Impact Attitudes Toward Government and the Economic System .........................................................................................................................................70 XIV. What Do Millennials Believe Is the Ideal Society? ................................... 72 How Do Beliefs About What’s Fair Help Explain Political Views? ............................................. 75 XV. Where Do Millennials Stand on the Issues? ............................................... 78 Fiscal Issues ....................................................................................................................................78 Health Care ...................................................................................................................................79 Social Security ............................................................................................................................... 81 Millennials Support Private Retirement Accounts, Even if Cuts to Seniors’ Benefits Required ...............................................................................................................................................................82 Education ......................................................................................................................................83 Lifestyle Liberty .............................................................................................................................. 84 Same-Sex Marriage ...................................................................................................................... 87 Is Same-Sex Marriage a Deal-Breaker Issue? ............................................................................ 87 Abortion .........................................................................................................................................88 Drinking Age .................................................................................................................................. 89 XVI. Do Millennials’ Underlying Values Impact Their Support for Individual Autonomy?.......................................................................................................... 90 XVII. Concluding Thoughts ................................................................................ 91 Appendices ........................................................................................................ 93 Appendix 1: Survey Methodology .............................................................................................. 93 Appendix 2: Breakdowns of Ideological Labels ....................................................................... 94 Appendix 3: Millennial Issue Priorities .......................................................................................... 95 Appendix 4: Millennial Voting Preferences ............................................................................... 96 Appendix 5: Explaining Methods Behind Indices .................................................................... 100 Self-Determination Index ..................................................................................................................................100 Belief in Self-Determination: Do Millennials Say Personal Decisions or External Forces Primarily Explain Wealth or Poverty? ...............................................................................................................100 Notes ............................................................................................................................................101 4 I.