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Desert Locust Technical Series PLANT PRODUCTION AND PROTECTION DIVISION LOCUSTS AND OTHER MIGRATORY PESTS GROUP No. AGP/DL/TS/35 DESERT LOCUST TECHNICAL SERIES Preparedness to prevent Desert Locust plagues in the Central Region an historical review Part 1. Text PREPAREDNESS TO PREVENT DESERT LOCUST PLAGUES IN THE CENTRAL REGION, AN HISTORICAL REVIEW Part 1. Text J I Magor 1, P Ceccato 2, H M Dobson 1, J Pender 3 and L Ritchie 4 1 Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Kent, ME4 4TB, UK 2 International Research Institute for Climatic Prediction , The Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA 3 7 Beverley Close, Rainham, Gillingham, Kent ME8 9HG, UK 4 The Old Cottage, Hollingbourne, Kent ME17 1UJ, UK Prepared for EMPRES Central Region Programme 2005 Revised for publication 2007 This review was commissioned by the FAO EMPRES Central Region Programme. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed, however, are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to those of the funding agency. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention or omission of specific companies, their products or brand names does not imply any endorsement or judgement by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations encourages the dissemination of material contained in this publication, provided that reference is made to the source. All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Chief, Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch, Communication Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to [email protected] © FAO 2007 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This review is dedicated to past and present locust officers who monitor and record the behaviour of the Desert Locust in its harsh environment and to the memory of Zena Waloff who with her staff pioneered the mapping, analysis and summary of Desert Locust records that contributed greatly to our understanding of the biogeography of this species and led to the Information and Forecasting Service that plays a vital role in Desert Locust management. The authors acknowledge their debt to the many authors cited who are too numerous to name individually. We are particularly indebted to the referees for their constructive comments, encouragement and detailed suggestions for improving the text during the revision of this study. Their painstaking reading identified many inconsistencies and obscure passages; any that remain are entirely our fault. iii CONTENTS Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ iii Contents.................................................................................................................................................. iv Introduction ............................................................................................................................................1 The review ......................................................................................................................................2 Terminology....................................................................................................................................3 1. Desert Locust plague prevention strategies 1920-1999 ..................................................................5 Brief overview .....................................................................................................................................5 Learning about Desert Locusts 1920-1941 ..........................................................................................6 Proposed plague prevention scheme 1937-1938.............................................................................7 Proposed Functions:...................................................................................................................7 Proposed Organization:..............................................................................................................7 Rethinking plague suppression and prevention 1940-1969 .................................................................8 Plague campaigns coordinated, plague prevention restructured 1940-1952 ...................................8 Interim plague prevention strategy developed 1956-1963............................................................11 Changes in knowledge, control and organizations 1949-1966......................................................11 Implementing plague prevention, 1964-1999 ....................................................................................13 Long-term strategy of plague control refined and adopted 1964-1969.........................................13 Sustaining plague prevention capacities .......................................................................................15 Plague prevention tactics for outbreak and upsurge populations .............................................16 Financing plague prevention emergencies during upsurges.....................................................19 Applying the latest survey and control techniques...................................................................20 2. Recession and upsurge populations 1920 to 1999 ..........................................................................21 Brief overview ...................................................................................................................................21 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................22 Plague initiation and decline in the Central Region 1920-1963.........................................................23 Data source 1920-1963 .................................................................................................................23 Central Region recession populations 1920-1924.........................................................................24 Plague upsurge and decline, 1925-1934........................................................................................24 Central Region recession populations 1934-1939.........................................................................26 The plague upsurge and decline, 1940-1948.................................................................................27 Central Region recession populations 1948..................................................................................29 The plague upsurge and decline, 1949-1963.................................................................................30 Plague initiation and decline in the Central Region 1964-1999.........................................................33 New concepts for evaluating plague prevention ...........................................................................33 Recession populations 1964-1967 ................................................................................................34 The plague upsurge and decline 1966-1969..................................................................................36 Recession upsurge 1972-1973 ......................................................................................................42 Central Region recession populations 1974-1976.........................................................................43 The plague upsurge and decline, 1977-1979.................................................................................45 Recession populations 1980-1984 ................................................................................................49 The plague upsurge and decline, 1985-1989.................................................................................51 Desert Locust recession populations 1990-1992 and upsurge 1992-1994 ....................................55 Desert Locust upsurges, 1994-1998..............................................................................................58 Preliminary conclusions and discussion ............................................................................................61 3. Evaluating the Desert Locust threat................................................................................................67 Brief overview ...................................................................................................................................67 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................68 The Desert Locust early warning system...........................................................................................69 Desert
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