WEBINAR – UPDATE ON THE SOUTH ASIA PULSE MARKET
18 June 2019 WEBINAR AGENDA
AEST Agenda
1500 – 1502 pm Webinar commences and Opening by P S Krishnan, Head of Marketing – South Asia, Austrade
1502 – 1507 pm Overview by Sam Guedouard, Adviser - Food & Agribusiness, Austrade
1507 – 1517 pm Australian Government initiatives & priorities for pulses exports to South Asia by Dr Nora Galway, Counsellor (Agriculture), Australian High Commission, New Delhi
1517 – 1527 pm Overview of Pulses Market in Pakistan by Bilal Doni, Director, Doni Group
1527 – 1537 pm Overview of Pulses Market in Bangladesh by Fahim Wahab, Ghazi Commodities Limited
1537 – 1558 pm Q&A / Interaction
1600 pm Webinar concludes
2 Presented by: Bilal Doni Pakistan Pulses Production (Mtons)
2019 Commodity 2016 2017 2018 (expected)
Desi Chickpeas 300,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Kabuli Chickpeas 60,000 60,000 75,000 40,000
Red Lentils 15,000 15,000 15,000 10,000
Yellow Peas 0 0 0 0
Black Matpe 3,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Pakistan Pulses Import (Mtons)
2019 Commodity 2016 2017 2018 (expected)
Desi Chickpeas 155,000 420,000 215,000 100,000
Kabuli Chickpeas 170,000 180,000 200,000 225,000
Red Lentils 127,000 96,000 89,000 100,000
Yellow Peas 217,000 206,000 200,000 225,000
Black Matpe 64,000 86,000 67,000 75,000 Current Market Scenario (International Market CNF Karachi)
• Australian Desi Chickpeas (2017/18) - $550/mt
• Australian Desi Chickpeas (2018/19) - $590/mt
• Australian Nugget Lentils - $455/mt
• Australian Nipper Lentils - $455/mt
• Australian Kabuli Chickpeas 7/8MM - $510/mt Current Market Scenario (Local Market Equivalent)
• Australian Desi Chickpeas (2017/18) - $530/mt
• Australian Desi Chickpeas (2018/19) - N/A
• Australian Nugget Lentils - $450/mt
• Australian Nipper Lentils - $450/mt
• Australian Kabuli Chickpeas 7/8MM – N/A Trade Opportunities and Threats (Pakistan and Australia) • Historically decent import volume from Australia
• Substitute origins of pulses
• Price sensitivity of pulses importers Trade Simplified HOME PAGE WWW.GRAINSBAZAAR.COM
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Fahim Wahab Ghazi Commodities Limited [email protected]
Austrade Pulses Webinar 18 June 2019 Ghazi Commodities Limited Bangladesh: Key Highlights
Geography: Economy: - Bangladesh is a delta formed - GDP @ official exchange rate from 230 rivers. = $261.5 billion (2017 est.) - Terrain is mostly flat alluvial plain; - Bangladesh's economy has hilly in southeast grown roughly 6% per year since 2005. Area: - The IMF calculates - Total: 148,460 sq km Bangladesh’s economy - Land: 130,170 sq km growing to $322bn by 2021. - Water: 18,290 sq km GDP composition, by sector of Population: origin: - Eighth most populous nation - Agriculture: 14.2% (2017 est.) - 159,453,001 (July 2018 est.) - Industry: 29.3% (2017 est.) - Services: 56.5% (2017 est.)
Source: CIA The World Factbook Ghazi Commodities Limited
Estimated Consumption of Pulses in Bangladesh Trade estimates the Annual Consumption of all Pulses in Bangladesh = 1.2 Million MT to 1.3 Million MT, off which:
Yellow Peas Desi Chick Peas Red Lentils Others: 450K - 550K 200K - 230K 400K 120K - 150K Entirely imported Entirely imported 100K locally produced Green Mung Beans Major Origins: Major Origins: 300K imported Black Matpe Canada Australia & Myanmar Major Origins: Toor Russia/Ukraine Consumption: Australia Other peas & beans Consumption: 65% - 70% = Whole Canada 35% = Whole 30-35% = Dall Consumption: Mostly produced locally. 45% = Dall (Split & Football) & Almost entirely processed Any shortfall imported 20% = Flour Flour into Football from Myanmar & India Ghazi Commodities Limited
Estimate of Pulses Acreage & Production 2014-15 to 2016-17 Name of Crop 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Area Product Area Product Area Product (Acres) ion (MT) (Acres) ion (MT) (Acres) ion (MT) Gram (Desi 17,468 6,672 15,026 6,382 14,615 6,237 Chickpeas) Arhar (Toor) 1,421 603 1,331 566 1,275 552 Masur (Red Lentil) 359,367 167,261 381,653 158,228 382,224 168,837 Motor (Peas) 18,749 7,385 17,931 7,372 17,497 7,191 Green Gram (GMB) 96,076 32,737 101,566 36,954 102,311 34,783 Black Gram (BMP) 96,264 33,400 98,006 35,151 102,838 39,187 Kheshari (Vetch) 277,621 120,714 280,415 122,408 276,829 119,344 Total 866,966 368,772 895,928 367,061 897,589 376,131
Source: Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics-2017, 29th Series, April 2018, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Ghazi Commodities
Limited Desi Chick Peas
- 40% to 50% of annual demand consumed during Ramadan.
- In Bangladesh Chickpeas is consumed whole – with the skin.
- Trade is very sensitive to small variances in seed size and colour of seed coat.
- Uniform seed coat colour and seed size is very important. Ghazi Commodities
Limited Whole Red Lentils
- Bangladesh prefers extra small lentils size. - Consumers buy football only, and splits are used by HoReCa segment. - The local origin lentil has a big premium over imported lentils due to small size and preferred taste. - Main origins are Australia (nipper / nipper type) & Canada (crimson / crimson type), but Russia & CIS are origins showing future potential. - Millers are generally willing to pay premium $15 - $20 for Australian Nippers. Any higher and they switch over to Crimson. Ghazi Commodities Limited Conclusion
- Kaspa Peas – South Australian Origin – is a niche demand.
- Bangladesh will always have demand for pulses, unlike India & Pakistan, where self sufficiency is possible. Demand expected to grow proportionally to income and population growth.
- Business is conducted through Letter of Credit. This is a mandatory rule set by the Government of Bangladesh.
Thank you!