NOT FOR PUBLICATION WITHOUT WRITER'S (:ONSENT

KBP-II INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS

HE MASERU RAID A new era of South African militarism

September 9, 1983 Mr. Peter Bird Martin Executive Director Institute of Current World Affair.s Wheelock House 4 West Wheelock Street Hanover, New Hampshire 0355 Dear Peter,

Helicopter-borne South African accurately reporting South ' s commandos attacked Maseru in early military ventures. However, to December 1982. The assault on the assume that they are incapable of capital of the independent black doing so is to be guilty of grossly nation of was claimed to underestimating the intelligence have been a pre-emptive strike and creativity of the men in control against African National Congress of these organizations. It is (ANC) guerrillas planning sabotage precisely this unwillingness to in . By its own admis- acknowledge publicly certain fine sion the South African Defense Force distinctions that is enabling the (SADF) was unable to kill three key South African Government to operate ANC leaders during the raid, and the with an increasingly free hand SADF's display of only a handful of against its opponents and enemies-- captured rifles and grenades strongly real or presumed. suggests the raid's purpose was primarily assassination. In the past few years, almost all dissident activities against In keeping with the tradi- South Africa have been labeled by tion of not criticizing the military, that government as the work of none of the South African papers terrorists. In South WeSt Africa/ discussed the raid as an assassinat- , the military wing of SWAP0 ion attempt. However, because it that has been waging an insurgent was unquestionably an action organ- war for seventeen years fights in ized to kill several important its own uniform and under its own people for political motives, it flag. SWAPO has public spokesmen easily fulfilled the requirements outside the country and has for such a label. declared itself at war with those who oppose majority rule in Namibia. Neither the government-dom- Nonetheless, it is termed a "communist inated press nor the South African terrorist" organization by South Defense Force are well known for Africa.

Kendal Price is a fellow of the Institute studying the cultures of South Africa, her black homelands, and the bordering African states. KBP- i i 2- In this case the propaganda thezbmeNtiol Resistance needs of the South African Govern- (M). This politically amorphous ment can be understood| they have organization is thought to have to try to convince the locals and considerable mterel support from outside world the guerrillas ae South Africa. On top of this, General more undesirable than they are in Magnus Malan the South African South West Africa/ Namibiao They Minister of Defense stated that must also justify the presence there should move anti-aircraft of a South Arican territorial force, missiles tothe area near its border Yet in the Republic of South Africa with South Africa, the SADF would this unwillingness to distinguish not hesitate to strike preemptively between mere protest activity, into Mozambique to remove them. He sabotage, and terrorism is a used the Israeli confrontation with carefully calculated tool new Syria over anti-aircraft missiles being used to justify virtually in the Bekaa Valley as an analogy, any otivities of the SADF--no implying that South Africa has a matter how extreme. All dissident need for or right to air superiority black South Africans and the over southern Mozambique. (It appears neighboring states providing they are pursuing that goal already. refuge have suddenly become very O a recent trip to the Kruger!Ge vulnerable. reserve this observer was six kilometers from the South African Of the so-called Front-line border with Mozambique. Even further independent states bordering outh east, which is to say on or inside Africa, Botswan hasthe most the Mozmbicn border I heard a number benign attitude towards its of jets flying at low level over the white supremist neighbor, and the bush. While information about SADF majority of 's indigenous border activities is for the most people the Tswana' s, live in part considered restricinformtion South Africa. Yet last year the and unwise to ask for, a park ranger Botswana homes of several South confirmed there is a South African African exiles were bombed, follow- airbse right in the k near the ed by a spate of refugee snatchings border. ) in which black political exiles were kidnapped from Botswana. South A successful Mozambican African Security Police were National Resistance sabotage implicated in the abductions. attack in Mozambique coincidentally had a direct effect on Zimbbwe's The defense force of Botswana fuel and rail links to the Indian is miniscule, but the cavalier Ocean. The southwestern area of attitude South Africa shows towards that borders South Africa Botswana's sovereignty both on the and Botswana has seen considerable ground and in the air has compelled strife in the past nine months as Botswana to purchase Soviet-made bndits and disenchanted former ar!ti-aircraft missiles. guerrillas loyal to Joshua Nkomo have openly begun to defy the Mozambique currently suffers Mugabe government. Nkomo has severe economic problems. Its repeatedly denied any knowledge of economic and political stability or control over these rebels. are being fuher disrupted by the highly successful sabotage of Unconfirmed reports detail how KBP-11 -3-

ex-Rhodesian soldiers and even ref- South African Government wants ugees crossing the border into South to have enough actual terrorist Africa are being trained, armed, activity in the country to justify and sent back into Zimbabwe to desta- almost any action it might conceive bilize the country through sabotage of against the ANC here or abroad. and random armed aggression. The (Until the bomb blast in aim of such covert action if reports May this plan presented little risk of it are true would be to push to white South Africans. Up to that Mugabe into open hostility with point the ANC had regrettable South Africa. This would give the tendency to kill -Nostly blacks South Africans a pretext to carry when it hose to direct violence out overt military activities against against individuals instead of Zimbabwe instead of limiting them- instllations. Their aim has selves to secret activity and a dlearly improved, though it is hostile domestic newspaper campaign j a pity that' to have attacked at all gives the appearance of having This mnipulation of neighbor played right into Pretoria's hands) states into an aggressive posture is the cornerstone of South Africa's The whole scenario makes being new and questionable policy of an inhabitant of one of the confrontation. The South African neighboring states dangerous, and raid on Maseru marks a noticable being a member of the ANC living acceleration of that policy. in a neighboring state increasingly fatal. However, another aspect of A foreign diplomat suggested the Maseru raid presents even more a disconcerting possibility in a disturbing possibilities for discussion in Johannesburg. He was black South Africans residing asked why the South Africans would within the Republic. be so heavy-handed in trying to wipe out a handful of guerrillas. Lesotho nationals allege that Did they not realize this was bound the government of Chief Jonathan to force the ANC to retaliate with in Maseru not only looked the genuine terrorism, that is, to other way but possibly encouraged start killing innocent civilians? the South Africans to attack members He responded that perhaps it is of the ANC residing in Maseru. The a mistake to assume the South reason may well have been that the Africans do not want the ANC to ANC members were doing a bit too move from Sabotage to terrorism. much consciousness-raising among the people of Lesotho, pointing out The hypothesis gains validity the inequities and corruption of when considered in ,light of South the Jonathan regime as well as those Africa' s apparent overall strategy of South ,Africa. toward blck opponents. While South Africa refers to almost all An aid-dependent state is what organized black opposition within one might call Lesotho, and cultivating the country as terrorist activity, so.urces of foreign aid could be de- it is well aware the outside world scribed as its chief export commodity. looks a labor strike with more Creating reasons for international tolerance than a bomb attack. For sympathy is cert.i.nly an ncillar_v this reason it is possible that the industry. Given nls counyr constant KBP-II -4-

basic needs, Jonathan was probably of South Africa, and potential hard-pressed not to tacitly approve foreign relief aid generated by the of or at least not interfere with the raid, the cost benefit of the raid. It presented him with the Lesothans killed by the South the possibility of ridding Lesotho Africans was very good. of individuals threatening to him while at the same time creating Lesotho is an independent a new reason for international black-controlled ntion. Yet attention and aid. eighty percent of its labor force worsin South Africa, the mjerity The results have certainly of its electricity comes from not discouraged this theory. The South Africa, and it is also physical damage to Maseru was landlocked by the white-minority limited to a handful of private ruled state. Its independence is residences. Most of the forty- a measured one at best. Essentially, two reported deaths were South Lesotho is a dependent sub-state African exiles and Supposed ANC of South Africa. Its government members. Only six to eight of obtained power by questionable means, the dead were reported to be inno- and suspended most democratic cnt Lesotho nationals. The South inst ituti ons. (In the last African Defense Force claimed they election t the point when he were killed by mistake in the appeared to be losing, Jonathan crossfire. (The ANC members called off the election, declared could not hve offered very much the results null and void, and resistence, if you consider that jailed the opposition.) most were killed while asleep in bed. Also, according to a This situation presents the white British expatriate working disturbing scenario of a black- in Maseru, the Lesotho Defense ruled state, de jure independent, Force's resistence consisted de facto dependent on South Africa, mostly of them running around covertly assisting Pretoria in the in the entirely opposite end of unsavory removal of mutual threats. town, firing their weapons This set of circumstances becomes into the air, and in general rightening when the following facts doing an unconvincing job of are considered at the same time: pretending to fight bck.) Pretoria is continuing in its attempt to remove forcibly the Several Lesotho nationals majority of South Africa's roughly are killed each week in fight- 20 million blacks to isolated ing between the government and and largely impoverished so-called the Lesotho Liberation Army. homelands. Four of these homelands So, for the Jonathan regime the (Bophuthatswana, Transkei, Ciskei raid was an unexpected boon of and Vends) have accepted so-called sorts. The total number of independence and have black leaders Lesothans killed by the South who have developed strong ties with Africans was not much greater Pretoria. In these homelands and than the average weekly death quasi-independent black states demo- toll. in terms of the amount cratic institutions are, to put it of international attention lightly, in the development stage. focused on Les0tho, condemnation South Africa is caught in its own KBP-II -5- name-game, being the only country in concealment for insurgents. (That the world that recognizes the border poses Such a threat hat the dependence of these homelands. It is South African Border Police still acutely aware of the fallacy it has do the patrolling there.) On both created, but it must stand by its sides of the border the indigenous own creations. people are Tswanas with strong family and cultural ties to-one Pretoria does not want to under- another. In Bophuthatswana,Pretoria mine its own efforts to gain faces the combination of a homeland recognition for the homelands by with a long, nearly indefensible obviously meddling with their politi- border, a common people on both cal affairs. Yet leaving these sides of that border, and South areas entirely to themselves would African laws that make it illegal create a security risk unacceptable for the South African Security to the South Africans. With the Police to empty their tactics on South African Seourity Branch the local population. Even if the unable to operate with complete black leader of BophuZhatswana was freedom in the homelands, a situation Willing to aid Pretoria, his exists that is of great concern security police could not match to Pretoria. the sophistication and effectiveness of the South African organization. However, the Maseru raid .may now serve as a precedent for One other factor that an entirely different approach to contributes to the likelihood of countering black insurgent movements. this scenario being acted out in the not-too-distant future is the South Africa massacred forty- increasingly arrogant attitude two men, women, and children in an of Pretoria. The government has internationally recognized begun to wear its pariah status independent black state. The like a new Spring fashion; alittle world was vocal in its criticism self consciously, but everywhere. but took no concrete action to It does not seem to care very much punish South Africa for its anymore what the outside world thinks excess. If South Africa begins of it as long as business goes on as preeive military operations usual with the multinationals. One against unrecognized quasi-independ- more verbal condemnation on the ent black states within its heap is of little concern to borders, no outside power is likely Pretoria. So, now when given the t0 interfere. In the future chance it appears to be shooting Pretoria may choose to use over- first and asking questions afterward. whelming military force against ay dissidents who fall into its Violence may escalate in South increasingly large and ambiguously Africa in the coming years, but not defined catagory of terrorists. necessarily because the blacks have beome any more disenchanted and For a hypothetical situation the ANC stronger. Bloodshed may where Pretoria might consider increase because Pretoria has attacking a homeland, Bophuthatswana discovered vis the Maseru raid a method is a good choice. Bophuthatswana by which it can kill large numbers is the only independent homeland tha+/- of ANC members or sympathizers has its own border with a foreign anywhere in and country, Botswana. The border area justify it as 'an act of self defense. there includes large tracts of dense bush that could provide good Sincerely,

Received in Hanover 9/26/83