CECONOMY AG 13 September 2019 Update to Credit Analysis
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
CORPORATES CREDIT OPINION CECONOMY AG 13 September 2019 Update to credit analysis Update Summary The negative outlook on CECONOMY AG's (Ceconomy) Baa3 rating reflects the uncertainty that currently exists over the execution of the company’s transformation programme and its ability to return to previous levels of underlying profitability. In addition, the rating is constrained by (1) the highly competitive, value-driven consumer electronics market; (2) the RATINGS discretionary and very seasonal nature of demand for large parts of the company’s product CECONOMY AG range; and (3) its relatively high reliance on its home market of Germany, thin profit margins Domicile Dusseldorf, Germany and limited scope for revenue growth. Long Term Rating Baa3 Type LT Issuer Rating More positively, the rating reflects Ceconomy’s (1) position as Europe’s largest electronics Outlook Negative retailer, with geographically well-diversified operations across 14 countries, including leadership positions in several large markets; (2) strong distribution network and improving Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown multichannel capabilities; (3) conservative financial profile, supported by low-funded debt reflect information as of the publication date. and short lease commitments; and (4) its equity stake in French peer FNAC DARTY SA (Ba2 stable) and the potential long-term benefits it can bring. Contacts Exhibit 1 High leverage owing to a decline in profitability and restructuring expenses but expected to Jeanine Arnold +49.69.70730.789 improve as strategic initiatives kick in Associate Managing Director Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA [email protected] Debt / EBITDA Downward tirgger Guillaume Leglise +33.1.5330.5979 4.5x AVP-Analyst [email protected] 4.0x 3.5x CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 3.0x Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 2.5x 30/09/2014 30/09/2015 30/09/2016 30/09/2017 30/09/2018 LTM Q3 2019 30/09/2019 (F) 30-09-2020 (F) 30-09-2021 (F) Japan 81-3-5408-4100 Forecast leverage represents Moody's forward-looking view, not the view of the issuer. EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™ Credit strengths » Largest European consumer electronics retailer, with geographically well-diversified operations across 14 countries » Leading market positions, including the large markets of Germany, Spain, Italy and Netherlands, supported by a strong brand recognition » Strong distribution network and improving multichannel capabilities MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES » Financial profile is supported by low-funded debt and short lease commitments Credit challenges » Execution risks around the recently announced transformation programme and uncertainty over the company's ability to turn around profitability » Seasonal and discretionary demand for a large part of Ceconomy's product range » Highly competitive market, with consumers focused on value » Still reliant on the home market of Germany, despite a wide geographical reach, » Limited scope for revenue growth and thin profit margins » Joint and several liability stipulated by the German Transformations Act to only hurt Ceconomy's rating if METRO AG's (Metro, Ba1, under review for downgrade) credit quality deteriorates materially Rating outlook The negative outlook reflects Ceconomy's recent decline in profitability and its high leverage for the rating category. The outlook also captures the uncertainties around the successful execution of Ceconomy’s restructuring programme launched in April 2019, and in turn, over the company's ability to recover its earnings and margins. Factors that could lead to an upgrade We could stabilise Ceconomy's ratings outlook if the company returns to sustainable growth in profitability, with more visibility around the quality of its earnings. A stable outlook would also require: » Ceconomy’s gross leverage to remain below 3.5x on a sustained basis; » Retained cash flow (RCF)/net debt to rise above 20% on a sustained basis; and » the company to maintain a good liquidity profile Factors that could lead to a downgrade Conversely, a downgrade of the company’s ratings would likely occur if: » Ceconomy’s gross leverage is expected to remain above 3.5x on a sustained basis » its RCF/net debt remains below 20% on a sustained basis A further deterioration in profitability for the fiscal year ended 30 September 2019 (fiscal 2019) or a deterioration in the company’s liquidity profile could also result in a rating downgrade. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 13 September 2019 CECONOMY AG: Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Key indicators Exhibit 2 Key indicators Ceconomy AG 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018 6/30/2019(L) 12-to-18 month view Revenue (EUR Million) 21,738 21,870 21,605 21,418 21,412 21,400 - 21,600 EBIT / Interest Expense 2.2x 2.8x 3.1x 2.9x 2.3x 2.5x - 3.0x RCF / Net Debt 25.8% 26.0% 23.2% 24.6% 27.3% 25% - 35% Debt / EBITDA 3.6x 3.0x 3.4x 3.2x 3.5x 3.2x - 3.7x All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations This represents Moody's forward view, not the view of the issuer, and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures. Source: Moody's Financial Metrics™ Profile Headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany, Ceconomy is Europe's largest consumer electronics retailer, operating two brands: Media-Markt and Saturn. The company generated revenue of €21.4 billion in the last 12 months ended 30 June 2019, is listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and has a current market capitalisation of around €1.6 billion. The company has four anchor shareholders: Haniel, Meridian Stiftung, Beisheim and, since summer 2018, freenet AG. In aggregate, these shareholders own around 53% of Ceconomy’s voting shares. The company was created by the demerger of the former METRO Group, whose shareholders agreed in June 2017 to split the operations between Ceconomy and Metro Wholesale & Food Specialist. The latter covers the wholesale and retail food operations and was renamed Metro AG. As part of the demerger agreement, Ceconomy retained a 10% stake in Metro AG, of which 9% were sold to EP Global Commerce in September 2018 and June 2019 while 1% will be held, for tax reasons, until at least September 2023. Ceconomy owns a 24.33% stake in French consumer electronics retailer FNAC DARTY SA. Ceconomy includes its proportion of FNAC DARTY SA's earnings in its reported EBITDA and EBIT. However, in accordance with our standard practices, we remove this income out of Moody's-adjusted calculations of profitability and relevant credit metrics. Exhibit 3 Exhibit 4 Diversified revenue and earnings in Europe... … but with some concentration in Germany Revenue breakdown for the 12 months ended 30 June 2019 Breakdown of EBITDA before special items for the 12 months ended 30 June 2019 Eastern Europe Eastern Europe 7% 6% Western & Southern Europe Western & 29% Southern Europe 33% Germany, Germany, Austria, Austria, Switzerland, Switzerland, Hungary Hungary 60% 65% Excluding segment ”Other” Excluding segment ”Other”. Source: Ceconomy's quarterly statements, 2018 annual accounts Sources: Ceconomy's quarterly statements, 2018 annual accounts 3 13 September 2019 CECONOMY AG: Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Detailed credit considerations Weak metrics for the rating category, but earnings should improve over the next 18 months owing to new management's transformation programme Ceconomy is currently weakly positioned in its rating category, as reflected in the negative outlook assigned in October 2018, following several profit warnings and some uncertainty over its earnings recovery prospects. Since then, the company has embarked on an ambitious transformation programme (called Reorganization & Efficiency Program), announced by the new management team in April 2019. The plan includes some short-term restructuring initiatives which aim to reduce the complexity of Ceconomy’s decentralised model and reduce its cost structure. The company targets annual run-rate savings of €110 million-€130 million, with a full year impact from fiscal 2020. The company aims to reorganize its central functions and optimize its portfolio of operating entities. The implementation of this restructuring programme will translate into cash costs of around €200 million, which will be fully expensed this year, but with a cash impact split between this year and the next. While these costs will weigh significantly on the company's reported earnings in 2019, in line with our accounting practices, we do not consider these restructuring costs as exceptional items, and as a result, credit metrics will deteriorate materially in fiscal 2019. Over the longer-term, the plan also strives to accelerate the shift towards online sales and improve its supply chain efficiency towards a more customer-focused approach. Exhibit 5 We expect earnings to reach a low point in fiscal 2019, but restructuring initiatives should support profit recovery from 2020 EBIT as reported by the company, excluding FNAC DARTY SA's contribution Reported EBIT Restructuring charges Savings EBIT margin % (RHS) 600 2.5% 500 400 2.0% 300 1.5% 200 100 1.0% In In euro millions 0 -100 0.5% -200 -300 0.0% FY2017 FY2018 LTM June-19 FY2019E FY2020E Fiscal 2017 excludes Russia. Sources: Moody's Investors Service, company's financial reports While this major transformation programme seems well on track today, as illustrated by the recent agreement with workers council, we believe the overall program still present some execution risks, and as such, there is downside risk to our base case for the 2019-20 period.