fenerF AEI Public Opinion S Studies POLLS ON THE ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY, GLOBAL WARMING, and NUCLEAR POWER Compiled by Karlyn Bowman, Resident Fellow, AEI, Eleanor O’Neil, Research Assistant, AEI, and Heather Sims, Research Assistant, AEI (April 2016) Special thanks to former Senior Research Associate Jennifer Marsico and former Research Assistant Andrew Rugg for their help compiling this document. The data in this report come from the archive of public opinion polls at AEI and from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research’s iPOLL Databank. To learn more about the Roper Center, visit http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/. Table of Contents The Environment and Energy ............................................................................................. 2 The Politics of the Issue .......................................................................................................3 Party Best Able to Handle Environmental Issues ............................................................3 The Environment as a Voting Issue: Exit Polls ...............................................................6 The Obama Administration and Environmental and Energy Policy ...............................7 President Obama’s Handling of Energy Policy ...............................................................9 The Bush Administration and Environmental Policy ....................................................11 The Clinton Administration and Environmental Policy ................................................16 Obama v Romney on the Environment, Global Warming, and Energy ........................17 Obama v McCain on the Environment and Global Warming .......................................17 Bush v Kerry on the Environment .................................................................................17 The Significance of the Issue .............................................................................................19 Personal Worries about the Environment ......................................................................26 Trends on Different Environmental Problems .............................................................. 28 Rating the Environment Today ......................................................................................33 Priorities and Trade-offs ................................................................................................36 Environmental Activism ................................................................................................42 Global Warming.................................................................................................................50 How Much People Know ...............................................................................................51 Is It Real? Americans’ Views ........................................................................................54 Is It Real? Americans’ Views of Scientists’ Views .......................................................62 Causes of Global Warming ............................................................................................64 Seriousness of Global Warming: Today ........................................................................68 Seriousness of Global Warming: In the Future .............................................................77 What Should Be Done To Address Environmental and Energy Issues .........................81 What Should be Done: Miscellaneous ...........................................................................97 Presidents’ and Political Parties’ Handling of Global Warming .................................100 Kyoto Protocol and International Efforts .....................................................................103 Cap and Trade ..............................................................................................................106 Energy Issues ...................................................................................................................108 Offshore Drilling ..........................................................................................................109 The BP Oil Spill ...........................................................................................................113 Keystone XL Pipeline ..................................................................................................119 Fracking .......................................................................................................................123 Nuclear Energy ................................................................................................................130 Attitudes Toward Nuclear Energy ...............................................................................130 Government and Nuclear Energy.................................................................................138 Nuclear Plants in Your Community .............................................................................141 Nuclear Energy Safety .................................................................................................144 2011 Japanese Nuclear Crisis ......................................................................................148 Three Mile Island .........................................................................................................149 1 The Environment and Energy This AEI Public Opinion Study examines polls on the environment, energy, nuclear power, and global warming. In the first section, we look at national polls on the politics of the environment. Democrats lead Republicans by a substantial margin nationally as the party best able to handle environmental issues. Surprisingly, no questions were asked during the 2012 presidential campaign about whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would be better at handling the environment. The absence of questions tells a great deal about how little the issue featured in the pollsters’ minds in the 2012 election. A few questions were asked about which candidate would be better at handling energy issues. We also include available trends from the major pollsters on how recent presidents have handled the issue in this document. Questions about President Barack Obama’s handling of the environment are not asked regularly by most pollsters. The President’s ratings on handling the environment have declined over the course of his presidency in most polls. In the latest poll from Gallup, taken in March 2016, 54 percent, down from 79 percent early in his presidency, said he was doing a good job handling the environment. Questions about George W. Bush’s handling of the environment were also not asked as often as questions about his handling of foreign policy or the economy, but he tended to receive negative marks on the issue late in his presidency. The data show that the environment is not an issue on the front burner for most Americans today. In Pew’s 2016 question about priorities for President Obama and Congress, 47 percent said “protecting the environment” should be a top priority. As a point of comparison, 75 percent said strengthening the nation’s economy and, separately, defending the country from terrorism should be a top priority. Still, more people in 2016 said protecting the environment should be a top priority than gave that response about dealing with global climate change (47 and 38 percent, respectively). Thirty-eight percent said global warming should be a top priority. In general, Americans today are sympathetic to, but not active in, the environmental movement. In Gallup’s latest question, asked in 2014, 18 percent said they were active in the movement, while 42 percent said they were sympathetic but not active. As for evaluating the impact of the environmental movement, 76 percent told Gallup in 1992 that the movement had definitely or probably done more good than harm. In 2010, 62 percent gave that response. In 1971, 42.9 percent of college freshmen said that being involved in programs to clean up the environment was an objective considered essential or very important for them. In 2014, 26 percent gave that response. There is no indication from this poll or others that young people’s commitment to a clean and healthful environment has lessened. They, like most Americans, simply attach less urgency to it than in the past. When the public cares deeply about something, as they do about the environment, they often give answers that are designed to keep the pressure on legislators. That doesn’t mean they are paying close attention to debates in Washington. The public rarely gives specific legislative advice about complex environmental policy debates. This document includes six major sections – the politics of the issue, the significance of the issue, global warming, energy issues, gas prices, and nuclear energy. For commentary concerning each of these issues, see the respective sections. 2 The Politics of the Issue Party Best Able to Handle Environmental Issues Let me ask you who you feel can do a better job on each of the same things – the Democrats or the Republicans… controlling air and water pollution? (Harris) In your opinion, which of the two major parties has the best vision to address each of the following major issues . protecting the environment? (Harris Interactive, 2016) Which political party, the Republicans or the Democrats, would do a better job protecting the environment? (ABC News/Washington Post) Which political party, the Republican or the Democratic, do you think can do a better job of protecting the