Document of The World Bank Group
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized
Report No. 24172-GUA
GUYANA
POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Public Disclosure Authorized AND
JOINT IDA/IMF STAFF ASSESMENT
August 28, 2002 Public Disclosure Authorized
Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Caribbean Country Management Unit Latin America and the Caribbean Region Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the perfonnance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
GUYANA
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Joint Staff Assessment
Prepared by the staffs of the International Development Association and the International Monetary Fund'
Approved by David de Ferranti and Gobind Nankani (IDA), and Claudio M. Loser and Liam P. Ebrill (IMF)
August 28, 2002
I. OVERVIEW
1. The Guyana Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) builds on the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) discussed by the Boards of the Fund and the Bank in November 2000, as well as the National Development Strategy (NDS) designed in 1993. The NDS provided a framework for sustainable growth and poverty reduction in Guyana over a 25-year period. However, it did not examine in detail the costing of the Strategy or its financing. The PRSP builds on the framework established by the NDS, focuses more on the problems of poverty reduction in the medium term (2002-05), and links the poverty reduction strategy to its financing requirements. The PRSP also builds on the strategy outlined in the I-PRSP and explicitly shows the differences between the I-PRSP and the PRSP as a result of the broad consultation and analytical work that took place during the preparation of the PRSP (see Table 4.2 in the PRSP).
2. The PRSP was prepared by the government of Guyana in November 2001 and the underlying macroeconomic framework was updated in March 2002 as a response to changing conditions and to incorporate more prudent assumptions. In the original PRSP, output growth projections were higher than can be justified in light of the changed economic environment and likely external financing. The budget required to fully implement the PRSP exceeded the financing envelope so far identified by the authorities or committed by financing agencies. In particular, debt relief in 2002 was overestimated. In addition, sectoral growth projections were overly optimistic in light of the developments in the international economy since late 2001, the low level of private investment, and delays in the restructuring of key state-owned enterprises. Thus, the macroeconomic projections in the PRSP have been updated in an addendum to reflect more realistic assumptions.
I This Joint Staff Assessment was prepared in collaboration with the staff of the Inter- American Development Bank (IDB). - 2 -
3. The staffs believe that the PRSP provides an adequate framework for supporting the implementation of effective poverty reduction policies in Guyana, even though some of the PRSP targets are ambitious given the resources and capacity available (see paragraph 17 below). In this light, there are a number of steps the authorities could take to further improve the PRSP. The staffs urge the authorities to: (a) update, as soon as possible, the social targets and poverty reduction objectives embedded in the PRSP in line with the more realistic assumptions on financing; and (b) prioritize poverty-reducing programs and projects to ensure the efficacy and effectiveness of PRSP-related expenditures. Other key tasks for the government during PRSP implementation and subsequent revisions are to: (a) engage more consistently representatives from civil society groups, the private sector, political parties, and other branches of government, to deepen the discussion of the key choices and trade-offs facing the country; (b) ensure that there is a broad national dissemination strategy to inform the public about the choices made and help build consensus for the strategy; and (c) take concrete actions to address the governance, accountability, and corruption concerns raised during the consultation process.
II. PARTICIPATION PROCESS
4. The PRSP was prepared through a broad-based participation process that builds on the process started in 1993 during the preparation of the NDS. The NDS was reviewed through a participatory process involving about 200 people, while the I-PRSP involved little or no participation. After the I-PRSP and following the recommendations of the JSA for the I-PRSP, the government launched an extensive participatory process which touched every region and involved more than 8,000 people. Over 200 consultations consisting of 109 community consultations and 98 target group consultations were conducted in all 10 regions of the country.
5. The consultation process helped foster dialogue by bringing together diverse ethnic groups (including Amerindians) to discuss development issues. The staffs would like to underscore the good faith effort made by the authorities, their ability to capture and process comments made during the consultation and their acknowledgement of the benefits of a more open approach to policy formulation, including the potential for repairing ethnic and political divisions.
6. The consultation process was based on a fairly elaborate structure, involving a donor coordination unit, a PRSP steering committee, the PRSP Secretariat and the Resource Teams, as well as a broad range of community groups and other civil society organizations. 2A preliminary workshop was held with identified stakeholder groups and constituents to design the consultation process. This workshop laid particular emphasis on the need to consult with all groups, including those based on ethnic origins, gender, age, education and occupation. Before starting the consultation process, a Participatory Action Plan (PAP) was drafted by the PRSP Secretariat. The PAP was subsequently reviewed and modified through discussions with civil society, government and donor groups.
2 See Chapter 3 of the PRSP for details. - 3 -
7. Resource teams were trained in Georgetown on the conduct of the consultations, and the process was launched by President Jagdeo on June 18, 2001. The initial plan was to have 72 community consultations, but because of popular demand, the number of community consultations was expanded to 109. In addition, 98 target group consultations were held by civil society groups, of which 83 were carried out by religious organizations, and others by women, farmers, and youth groups. Consultations were also carried out in Amerindian areas. Following these local-level consultations, regional consultations were carried out in each of Guyana's 10 regions in an attempt to prioritize the findings coming from the community and target group consultations. The inputs from the consultations were fed into the development of a draft PRSP, which was circulated to key groups and discussed in October 2001 at a national consultation in Georgetown.
8. Despite the breadth of the consultations as noted above, the main opposition party did not formally participate in the consultations and subsequently complained that the consultations were not truly open to all groups, were dominated by govemment leaders, and did not include many poor areas. However, it is noteworthy that some members of the main opposition party attended the consultations in their individual capacities. Similarly, the Private Sector Commission, the largest organization of private companies with members across ethnic and political lines, did not formally participate in the consultations, because there was a perception that the exercise was largely focused on poverty reduction, rather than economic growth.
9. The PRSP candidly reflects the results of the consultations and the voices of participants. The draft PRSP was adjusted to reflect the priorities identified during the consultation process, as shown in Table 4.2 in the PRSP. These new areas of emphasis include discussions on governance, health, education, small scale businesses, rural electricity, housing and other topics. The consultations highlighted some essential issues:
* Poverty is clearly linked with inadequate employment opportunities;
* Key shortages in the education, health, housing and water sectors are a constant problem, as are the weaknesses in institutions designed to provide these public services;
* Ineffective and unresponsive government agencies, particularly at the local level, are seen as not providing key services and not listening to local preferences. At times, lack of oversight and control leads to corruption and misuse of funds;
* Many problems can be resolved at the local level without substantial resources, but with simple improvements in administration. For instance, by providing the public with the details of contract awards, it would be possible for local groups to be more active in the supervision of these contracts, and thereby reduce malfeasance. 10. The authorities have accepted the idea of a broad dissemination process for future steps. The PRSP has been made available in Guyana, and has been posted on the worldwide web. It has been distributed to all donors active in Guyana and their comments have been solicited. Also, the revised macroeconomic framework and the public sector investment program in the PRSP addendum formed the basis for the 2002 public sector budgets discussed and passed by parliament. Although a dissemination strategy has not yet been fully developed, the staffs and the authorities have agreed that the credibility of the PRSP will be increased when a broad dissemination campaign is undertaken. Thus, in the near future, the authorities plan to communicate with civil society and other stakeholders to: (a) explain the implementation constraints and the changes that have been made in the macroeconomic framework as well as in the public sector investment program; and (b) explain necessary changes to the objectives and targets of the PRSP. l i. While they have agreed on the importance of dissemination, the authorities have not decided upon a process of consultation with stakeholders in revising the PRSP or formulating PRSP progress reports. In the staffs' view, a mechanism is needed to provide for a continuous process of consultation with stakeholders to guide PRSP implementation and ensure that monitoring and evaluation take place within a participatory framework. The staffs urge the authorities to move quickly to develop such a process.
III. POVERTY DIAGNOSTIC
12. Using the 1992 Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS) and the 1999 Living Conditions Survey (LCS), the PRSP describes the poverty situation, but does not analyze the causes of poverty. The 1992 LSMS and the 1999 LCS provide some information on the dynamics of poverty at the national and regional levels. These surveys show a decline in the share of persons living in poverty from 43.2 percent in 1992 to 35.1 percent in 1999, and an even sharper decline in the share of the extremely poor.3 Unfortunately, the LSMS and LCS surveys do not provide enough coverage of thinly- populated regions with mainly Amerindian populations. The PRSP underscores the increase of rural poverty and the association between high dependency ratios and large family size with poor households. However, little information is given concerning the demographic and gender dimension of poverty. The survey data are complemented by qualitative information on poverty, derived mainly from the PRSP consultation.
13. The PRSP contains an analysis of the effects of past policies and programs on growth and development. The extreme statist policies pursued by the country prior to 1989 caused rising inflation, declining per capita income, and a deterioration of social services until the late 1980s. Unfortunately, detailed household surveys are not available from this period to enable a tracking of the trends in poverty. Economic stabilization and adjustment reforms enacted since 1989 helped restore growth, revamp social services, reduce the size
3From 1998 onward, GDP growth has been significantly less than during the period 1990-97. Therefore, the poverty incidence may have increased somewhat between 1997 and 1999. However survey data are not available for 1997. - 5 -
and presence of the public sector in the economy, and rebuild some of the deteriorated infrastructure. As a result, per capita income rose strongly and poverty fell substantially. However, these trends have not been sustained. The economy has barely grown since 1998; social programs remain weak and underfunded; there are clear gaps in education, health, water, and other key government services; and the quality of housing is poor.
IV. THE POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY
14. The staffs support the main thrust of Guyana's PRSP, which is to raise per capita output and employment growth toward the pre-1997 levels, improve social services, and expand and strengthen social safety nets. The strategy, which draws on views and aspirations that emerged from a wide-ranging consultation process, rests on seven pillars: (1) broad-based, job-generating economic growth; (2) stronger institutions and better governance; (3) investment in human capital, with emphasis. on basic education and health; (4) investment in infrastructure to support better services in water, sanitation and housing; (5) investment in growth-supporting infrastructure, such as roads, power and irrigation; (6) improved safety nets; and (7) special intervention programs to address regional pockets of poverty. To achieve growth in the medium term, the strategy emphasizes the need to create an environment conducive to private-sector-led, job-creating growth, in nontraditional, export-oriented sectors (such as labor-intensive manufacturing and services, ecotourism and timber), while continuing to rely heavily on recovery in the traditional agricultural export commodities (such as sugar and rice).
A. Targets, Indicators, and Monitoring
15. In the revised macroeconomic projections underlying the PRSP, the economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.7 per year during 2002-05. The original macroeconomic framework projected an average growth rate of 4 percent during 2002-05. The authorities' revised growth targets take into account updated projections regarding international conditions and are based on more prudent financing and expenditures. While the new projected growth rate is modest compared to the 7 percent achieved during the recovery period of the 1990s, it exceeds the sluggish performance of recent years (GDP growth averaged a mere 0.4 percent during 1998-2001). If some of the factors that ushered in slow economic growth in recent years (i.e., declining terms of trade, unfavorable weather conditions, social unrest and political uncertainties, or a combination thereof) were to occur in the years ahead, the projected growth could be hard to achieve.
16. Attaining the projected growth would also critically depend on the authorities' ability to mobilize the expected levels of external support, and on the timely implementation of key structural reforms. With respect to the latter, it will be particularly important to address institutional weaknesses and put in place systems that improve public accountability and governance. 17. The PRSP poverty-related targets appear to fall short of achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Moreover, given projected resources and implementation capacity constraints, major policy efforts will be needed to achieve even the PRSP targets. The PRSP does not provide projections of social targets to 2015. However, an extrapolation done by the staffs shows that the PRSP targets would not constitute sufficient progress towards the achievement of the MDG, particularly as they relate to the poverty rate, infant mortality, and maternal mortality (Table 1). For example, as shown in Table 6.1 in the PRSP, the strategy aims at reducing the percentage of persons living below the poverty line from an estimated 35.1 percent in 2000 to 31.4 percent in 2005, implying an average annual decline of 0.7 percentage points in the poverty rate. Although, this objective appears achievable given past experience and the projected GDP growth rate, a faster reduction in the poverty rate would be required to reach the MDG. In contrast, the target set for HIV/AIDS prevalence seems to be ambitious given current policies.
18. Nevertheless, the PRSP policy agenda is consistent with continued significant poverty reduction in the medium term. In the longer term, the authorities should set more ambitious targets consistent with the MDG, provided that sufficient effort is deployed now to improve implementation capacity and quickly put into effect critical structural and social policy reform measures envisaged in the PRSP.
Table 1: PRSP Projections Regarding Millennium Development Goals
2005 Millennitnm Development Goal Indicators Shared Between 1990 1999 PRSP 2015 Achieve (MDG) MDG and PRSP Actual Actual Projections Staff Estirates' MDG? Halve poverty and (1992) 2 malnutrition Poverty headcount rare 43.2 35.1 31.4 26.1 No Achieve universal primary Primary school net enrollment education ratio 92.8 96.6 100 100 Yes Infant mortality rate Reduce child mortality by (per 1,000 live births) 63.8 58 42 25 No two-thirds Measles: percent of one-year olds inmuunized 77 83 92 100 Yes Reduce matemal mortality Matemal mortality by three-Quarters (per 100,000 live births) ... 190 130 69 No HW/AIDS number of Combat HIVlAIDS, malaria, reponed cases ... 237 205 161 Yes and other major diseases Reported cases of HIV/AIDS _ mong women aged 15-453 ... 74 88 64 Yes Environmental sustainability Percent of population with I access to safe wate? 8 1 92 98 100 Yes
Sources: PRSP; and World Bank MDG database.
' For each indicator, the projected level for 2015 is calculated using a straight-line projection covering the period 2005-15 based on the PRSP expected trend for 1999-2005. 2 MDG goal relates to population living with less than US$I per day, whereas Guyana's 1999 national poverty line was equivalent to US$1.40 at mnarket exchange rates. 3MDG goal relates to 15-24 year old pregnant women. The increase between 1999 and 2005 hides an expected decline.starting in 2002. The projected level for 2015 is based on the declining trend expected between 2002 and 2005. 4MDG goal relates to percent of urban population with access to an improved water source. -7 -
19. In the view of the staffs, Guyana's ability to monitor and evaluate policies in general, and in the PRSP in particular, remains weak. The PRSP details weaknesses in the statistical system, including the national statistics office as well as difficulties with coordinating activities across the line ministries and among government, donor agencies and NGOs. While making a commitment to improve monitoring and coordination, the PRSP lacks a detailed strategy for addressing coordination gaps, strengthening the Bureau of Statistics, and putting in place systems and procedures in other government agencies to effectively capture vital data. In terms of monitoring the PRSP performance, the government plans a greater involvement of civil society by revitalizing the system of community, neighborhood, and regional development councils. These councils, which are elected positions, have fallen into disuse in recent years due to a lack of local elections. It is not certain that they would be revitalized in time to allow for adequate grassroots monitoring of the implementation of the PRSP. Meanwhile, the government intends to establish special committees within communities to monitor the PRSP implementation, but is not clear exactly how these committees will be organized and empowered.
20. The government's efforts to implement and track progress on the PRSP will be supported by a Bank-funded monitoring and evaluation program. The monitoring and evaluation system described in the PRSP is vague as it is still in its design stage. The staffs hope that the monitoring and evaluation system will include a tracking system by which citizens could give feedback on the implementation of the Strategy and raise concerns when needed. Through a technical assistance credit under preparation, the Bank and the authorities are working together to design an monitoring and evaluation system that involves improving coordination and oversight of poverty-reduction activities, strengthening the Bureau of Statistics, expanding technical assistance to line agencies with PRSP responsibilities, piloting a community-based monitoring initiative, and launching an outreach program for enhanced public access to information and broad-based dialogue on government expenditures and programs to reduce poverty. The IDB has also offered assistance in data collection, and for the strengthening of analytical capacity in the line ministries in quantitative data analysis, program evaluation, and policy formulation.
B. Macroecononmic Framework and Fiscal Choices
21. The revised macroeconomic framework presented in the PRSP addendum is sound and achievable. Compared with the previous macroeconomic framework in the PRSP, the revised framework is based on more realistic assessments of international market conditions for Guyana's main exports, available external financial support and implementation capacity. While additional external assistance and higher output growth would be welcome, it would not be prudent to base the strategy on optimistic assumptions. In this context, the revised framework aims at maintaining macroeconomic stability, while boosting domestic savings and investment to raise output and employment growth and promote poverty reduction on a sustainable basis. In particular, it envisages continuing price stability, output growth that gradually rises from 1.8 percent in 2002 to 4.2 percent in 2006, and an adequate official international reserve cushion to help deal with possible adverse exogenous shocks. While output growth rates are still ambitious considering the outlook for - 8 -
Guyana's main commodity exports, they appear feasible provided that there is considerable effort to improve governance and promote political stability, to strengthen key institutions (e.g., the ministry of finance and the Bank of Guyana) to implement key components of Guyana's ambitious strategy, and to implement critical structural reforms promptly (as noted in paragraph 16 above). Should higher growth or greater than expected external grants or other highly concessional resources materialize, these could be integrated into future revisions of the framework.
22. The revised framework is based on strong policy efforts. In particular, it envisages appropriately the implementation of: (1) fiscal and public sector wage policies that make room for increased spending on critical structural reforms and poverty-reducing programs and projects, and that limit the financing of fiscal deficits over the medium term to available concessional external resources, in line with satisfactory public debt dynamics and adequate credit expansion to the private sector; (2) a monetary policy that targets inflation in the low single-digit levels in the context of the existing flexible exchange rate regime; and (3) an ambitious agenda of structural reforms and public investment projects.
23. While the authorities need to do more work to identify the specific sources of economic growth in the various sectors, the policy choices underlying the revised framework are geared appropriately towards enhancing the productivity and competitiveness of all economic sectors. Crucially, the revised framework would promote private sector development via the implementation of a tax reform that reduces economic distortions while securing funding for critical public spending; and actions to bolster the soundness and efficiency of the financial system. The PRSP also supports steps to strengthen property rights (especially land titling) and actions to increase supply and reliability of economic infrastructures and services.
24. The fiscal choices underlying the revised framework are appropriate. The fiscal choices are consistent with poverty reduction, albeit probably not as quickly as is envisaged in the interim PRSP, given the overly optimistic assumptions incorporated in that document. They make room for sustainable funding of projects and programs that would raise growth in agriculture (from which most of the poor derive their livelihoods), increase the poor's access to health, education and utility services, and address specific poverty pockets. Provision is also made for government spending on programs to assist those who may be adversely affected by the structural reforms being envisaged. To ensure that adequate resources are available for poverty reduction in the medium term, the macroeconomic framework appropriately gives priority to: (1) on the revenue side, a reform of the tax system and its administration to secure adequate tax revenue growth (see paragraph 28); and (2) on the expenditure side, linking central government wage increases to inflation and productivity increases, restructuring or privatization of the state-owned bauxite and sugar companies to reverse the drain on the public finances that their operations entail and make them profitable, and taking steps to improve public expenditure management. - 9 -
C. Structural and Sectoral Policies, Policies for Social Inclusion and Equity, Governance, and Public Sector Management
25. The PRSP outlines a large number of key policies and projects in a wide variety of sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, governance, export and investment promotion, drainage and irrigation, sea defense, transport infrastructure, and special programs for rural and indigenous areas. Although the authorities have made some adjustments to the public sector investment program included in the original PRSP (as indicated in the addendum) to reflect more realistic assumptions on resource availability, in the view of the staffs, the investment program remains somewhat ambitious and reliant on many large, capital intensive projects for which public financing may not be sufficient and complementary private investment may not be forthcoming. As in the I-PRSP, the PRSP contains little or no analysis of the benefits and costs of the various projects proposed, and hence little ability to rank the importance of various initiatives. In many cases, the projects and policies proposed seem only tangentially related to poverty reduction. Thus, the staffs urge the authorities to further prioritize the programs and projects included in the PRSP to ensure that public resources are effectively and efficiently used toward poverty alleviation.
26. The PRSP indicates the government's desire to proceed with several large infrastructure projects. These include a new harbor, a new container port, a road connection to Brazil, and a new bridge over the Berbice River. While mentioned in the PRSP, some of these projects are not included in the public investment program as the government expects that the private sector will carry them out on a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) basis. However, these projects may or may not generate sufficiently high financial rates of return to attract private investment. In the context of the need to ensure continued progress toward fiscal and external viability, the staffs believe that the government should continue to refrain from contributing public resources to a project or from providing explicit or implicit guarantees of private sector debts related to a project unless its social benefits and financial returns are clearly demonstrated. In addition, infrastructure projects (particularly road projects in environmentally sensitive areas) should not be carried out unless a satisfactory environmental assessment has been undertaken.
27. In the sugar sector, the objective of the PRSP is to modernize state-owned production plants to achieve higher profitability and competitiveness in the medium term. Toward this end, the key action proposed in the PRSP is the construction of a new sugar mill in Skeldon. The strategy in the bauxite sector would be to divest in the short term while providing adequate safety net to affected workers. The staffs have been discussing these and related policy issues with the authorities in the context of an IMF PRGF arrangement and in preparation of a possible Bank PRSC.
28. The staffs support the authorities ongoing efforts to implement reforms of the tax system and the financial sector. Regarding the tax system and its administration, the PRSP proposes to strengthen the Revenue Authority and the system in general. In the staffs' view, in order to reduce distortions that undermine private-sector development and secure adequate revenues for public spending, tax reform should be comprehensive. It should include - 10-
important steps that improve the governance ot tax administration, and reforms that broaden the tax base while reducing excessively high tax rates. Regarding the financial sector, the PRSP lays out a reform agenda, and the staffs have been informed by the authorities that reforms will soon be put in place to address weaknesses in the sector. These are essential given the critical importance of the sector for financing private investment and growth.
29. On the issue of social safety nets, the PRSP includes an expansion of the funding for social funds which finance small projects in primarily poor, rural areas. However, Guyana does not have a well-targeted and extensive system of safety nets to cover the unemployed and those at risk of losing their jobs as a result of restructuring. The PRSP proposes new safety net programs, but details are lacking in terms of how they would operate, who they would cover, and how they would be funded. The authorities need to move promptly on the poverty and social impact analysis of proposed reforms (particularly in the bauxite and sugar sectors). In this regard, the staffs urge the authorities to take advantage of resources and expertise available among Guyana's development partners.
30. In the social sectors, the PRSP calls for major improvements in education and health. For education, this includes increasing the number of classrooms, trained teachers, and school materials, with the objective of increasing enrollment at the pre-school and secondary levels, reducing repetition and drop-out rates, and reducing crowding. Efforts will be made to introduce a school feeding program and improve the school transportation system. In the views of the staffs, these efforts will need to be complemented with actions to increase teacher retention in the Guyana education system and reduce teacher absenteeism. In health, the program includes an expansion of preventive care, increased training of personnel, and upgrading of equipment in health centers and clinics in rural areas. A national HIV/AIDS center will be established, and the Georgetown Hospital will be upgraded to handle specialized ailments now treated outside the country.
31. Guyana's future economic growth and poverty reduction depend heavily on agriculture and rural development. The PRSP addresses the need to modernize the rice industry, though the strategy does not provide specifics, including the appropriate role of the Guyana Rice Development Board. The PRSP also addresses land-tenure issues but without sufficiently specific objectives. In particular, the political, financial and technical constraints that limit surveying should be lifted, and the strengthening of the Deeds Registry expedited to provide for an efficient and transparent system to register real property and protect property rights. In the critical area of drainage and irrigation or, more generally water- control systems, the PRSP emphasizes the expansion of these schemes. However, taking into account the complex and ineffective institutional setup in the Regions, sustainable institutional arrangements (i.e., fanner control, operation, fee collection for management and maintenance) should be in place first to justify new public investments. In particular, regional and local governments should be modernized, appropriate drainage and irrigation legislation passed, and farmer-controlled solutions sought. -1l-
32. The PRSP also includes programs to expand rural electrification, sea defense, housing schemes (to regularize squatter area settlements), as well as a number of special projects for poor, rural regions that typically have large numbers of indigenous people, and are often excluded from public services. The PRSP also mentions programs to promote the use of information and communications technology to diversify the economic base, improve access and opportunities for the poor, and consolidate policy reforms in these sectors.
33. To protect the environment, the PRSP proposes to: (i) enforce the provisions of the Environmental Protection Act; (ii) promote public awareness; (iii) involve local communities in developing programs to manage vulnerable ecosystems and protect environmental resources; and (iv) promote the training of an adequate number of technicians to monitor adherence to legal environmental standards. However, there is no adequate linkage in the PRSP between the strategy to have large infrastructure projects built by the private sector and the strategy to protect the environment.
34. Excessive centralization and the need for local government reform emerged among people's major concerns during the PRSP consultations. Local governments lack capacity, are fiscally very constrained, poorly designed, and largely unaccountable; conmnunities perceive them as marginal players in service delivery. The government plans to undertake reforms to decentralize the provision of services, such as education and health, and to strengthen local governments, including via measures to improve the direct representation of communities on local government councils, tax collection, human resources of local governments, financial accountability mechanisms, expenditure tracking, and resource allocation mechanisms in neighborhoods and regions. The PRSP has not identified any major services which might be decentralized or what concomitant roles and responsibilities might be devolved to lower levels; it only recommends that items such as issuance of passports, land titles, birth and death certificates be decentralized.
35. The PRSP proposes some important reforms in the area of public sector management, transparency, and accountability. In this regard, it is essential that public sector institutions be strengthened, particularly in the areas of tax administration; financial regulation and supervision; government procurement, audit and accounting; budget expenditure management; and investment project selection, design, evaluation and execution. Such institutional strengthening may require, inter alia, appropriate wage differentiation to address human capacity weaknesses in key institutions. Moreover, developing the political will to enable the checks and balances in the system to work is critical if the proposed reforms are to succeed. In particular, the parliament needs to foster genuine debate, while the Public Accounts Committee of the parliament needs a real voice with respect to the annual budget submissions and in reaction to the Auditor General's annual report. There also is a serious need to undertake a more extensive reorganization of the civil service, within a sustainable public sector wage setting mechanism. It is also essential that specific steps be taken to reduce the level of discretion afforded certain public officials, strengthen the rule of - 12 -
law,. protect property rights, and generate greater confidence in the fairness and efficiency of the general legal framework that would encourage private sector economic activity and improve access to financial services for creditworthy borrowers.
V. RISKS TO THE STRATEGY
36. The staffs agree with the five major risks identified in the PRSP. These are: (i) national consensus; (ii) implementation capacity; (iii) availability of external resources; (iv) developments in the world economy; and (v) natural disasters.
* National consensus and race relations. The PRSP notes that sufficient degree of consensus may not have been reached to implement the strategy in a sustainable manner and raises doubt about the stance that opposition parties and labor unions might take in engaging the government in a constructive dialogue. However, the PRSP does not make a clear link between national consensus and race relations. Guyana is a country deeply divided along racial lines, and political parties reflect the same division. Racial and political tensions resulted in a series of severe disturbances after the national elections of 2001, and such outbreaks could reoccur in the future. In fact, the main opposition party did not participate in the PRSP consultation process, although some of its members were involved in consultations in their personal capacities. The PRSP envisages strengthening and deepening the dialogue between the two main political parties. Thus, it will be important that efforts aimed at reducing racial and political tensions be increased considerably.
* Implementation capacity and weak institutions. The PRSP acknowledges the risks represented by Guyana's historically limited implementation capacity. A serious problem is the difficulty in recruiting and retaining qualified professionals in the public sector. Although public service salaries have increased substantially in recent years, these adjustments have been across-the-board and therefore not adequate to attract and retain skilled persons in key positions, such as doctors, nurses, school teachers, technical staffs in the civil service, as well as senior and middle level managers. Given this capacity constraint and present institutional weaknesses, the strategy proposed in the PRSP seems to go well beyond what the government can effectively carry out. Moreover, the decision- making authority remains highly centralized, which undermnines morale in the senior civil service.
* Availability of external resources. The PRSP makes note of the possibility that the identified external resources may not be forthcoming in the magnitude envisaged in the Strategy. Indeed, at current commitment levels, it does not appear possible to implement the whole strategy as originally conceived. The updated assumptions in the PRSP addendum provide a more realistic view of resource availability for implementing the PRSP, and it is essential that the authorities continue to review projects and programs with a view to ensuring that high priority activities are funded and implemented. While additional highly concessional resources would be welcome and would be employed in the strategy if they become available, it is prudent not to depend on them at this time. - 13 -
* Developments in the world economy. Guyana depends heavily on a few products whose prices have been falling in recent years (rice, bauxite, gold), or whose continued protected access to European markets is likely to be phased-out in the medium term (sugar). Unless a major effort can be made, through an acceleration of structural reforms in order to induce private investment to diversify the economic base, Guyana will remain heavily dependent on these commodities, and attainment of its growth and poverty reduction targets may be jeopardized.
* Natural disasters. Guyana's past economic performance has been constrained, inter alia, by natural disasters. Going forward, the risk of natural disaster would be magnified if the PRSP measures in the areas of sea defense, drainage and irrigation, are not fully implemented.
37. The staffs see an additional source of risk related to public sector wage demands. The civil service unions are pressing for large across-the-board wage increases following the sizeable wage increases granted in 1999 and 2000. The unions are pressing for external arbitration and have threatened to strike if their demands are not met on a retroactive basis. Their demands, if intensified, could cause social unrest, disruptions in public service delivery and, if granted, would cause a diversion of resources from critical programs and projects associated with sustainable poverty reduction. In this context, it will be important that the authorities continue their efforts aimed at building a broad-based consensus in favor of a prudent public sector wage policy. This may include a medium-term wage policy framnework, which could help prevent the yearly Government-Union confrontations.
VI. CONCLUSION
38. Notwithstanding the above risks, the staffs of the World Bank and 1MF consider that the Guyana PRSP provides an adequate framework to continue Guyana's efforts to reduce poverty in the context of sustainable growth. The PRSP has been developed within a participatory framework, it candidly reflects the results of the consultations, and it provides a comprehensive picture of Guyana's development challenges. Moreover, the seven fundamental pillars supporting the poverty reduction strategy are sound, and the macroeconomic framework is based on reasonable assumptions concerning growth, financing and the international environment. Nevertheless, the authorities will face challenges in implementing the strategy. Success of the strategy will depend on the government's ability to undertake critical structural reforms, improve governance, strengthen the public administration, agree on a wage setting mechanism with public sector unions consistent with sound macroeconomic policies and sustained poverty reduction, and continue to engage stakeholders so as to increase the support to the strategy both within and outside the government. Successful poverty reduction will also depend on the maintenance of macroeconomic stability, and in order to achieve this, the government will need to be resolute in implementing the policies underpinning the macroeconomic framework. - 14-
39. In line with the authorities' view of the PRSP as a living document, the staffs believe that there is room for improvement in both the PRSP document and the PRSP process. Key areas of improvement include: updating the social targets and poverty reduction objectives embedded in the PRSP in the near term in line with more realistic assumptions on financing; prioritizing poverty-reducing programs and projects; implementing a process for incorporating stakeholderst views into the PRSP; a deeper analysis of the causes of poverty and the specific sources of economic growth in various sectors; and a strengthening of the monitoring and evaluation of the PRSP.
40. On balance, the staffs consider that the PRSP and its addendum present a credible poverty reduction strategy and provide a basis for Bank and Fund concessional assistance and for debt relief within the HIPC framework. The staffs recommend that the respective Executive Directors of the World Bank and IMEF reach the same conclusion. GUYANA
POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
November 2001
THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTiON STRATEGY PAPER
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
In 1988, Guyana introduced a floating exchange rate. Average exchange rates prevailing Guyana dollars (G$) per US$1.00, period average:
1989 27.1 1990 39.5 1991 111.8 1992 125.0 1993 130.2 1994 138.2 1995 141.9 1996 140.2 1997 143.6 1998 150.2 1999 176.2 2000 184.7
Fiscal Year: January 1 - December 31
Tables: Totals in tables may not always equal the sum of their components because of rounding. THE GUYANA POVERTY tDUCnN SMTEGY PAPER i88g,J ; ; l f ' V ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a dQ400~ GUYANA DATA PROFILE, 1996-2000
| | _| . v _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~770.1770.6 7722
i r.l - :' ti 3.58 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~.583.58 3.5 | Hl . ,,1,t':E _ ] ~~~ ~~~~65.0 ~~~~~64.566. 8 g-i-,E EIE! 1_ ~~~~~~~~376 ~~~~~36.038. | L u | - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~111.6108.0 105.
| e .j. '.5>^; ...... '.9- | l ~~~~~2.4 2.3 23
_ . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~19.1 12.8 1 35
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9.7 ; , 9,6;.6 , . ; . 6;.6,....l
g t_ 8~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~20 9 53.0 5930
' j l l l l ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~215 215 21
<=8 11 1l | 911> l ! ~~~~~~~~~~~~~28196251S 2816
i i 1i ', l 12 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~D929
i E E 3E! g ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~347.343.i 4769 . ;; E - -r ; ; 6 . : : s .- SSO~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5.1~~ ~ 59.~ 78075 ~~~~~~~75059.
'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3. 3041 295.03,
27.34 35A 39,
101U 99 1024
aJ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.InluA 102PC Sources:Bunbau Ministry d Stalislics;5Bank40 ot Finance, Guyana THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTnON STRATEGY PAPER
ACRONYMS AIDS fAcquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome IPED Institute of Private EnterpriseDevelopment BDU Business Development Unit I-PRSP Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper BEAM Basic Education &Management Protect IT Informafion Technology BERMINE i Berbice Mining Enterprise JAP GRNT JapaneseGrant BNTF Basic Needs Trust Fund LCS Living Conditions Survey I BOS Bureau of Statistics LDO Local Democratic Organ BOT I Build, Operate-Own LEAP Linden Economic Advancement Project CARICOM CaribbeanCommunity LINMINE LindenMiningEnterprise CBO Community-based Organisations LSC Lands & Surveys Commission i CDB Caribbean Development Bank LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey CH&PA Central Housing &Planning Authonty MIS Management Information System CIDA i Canadian Intemational DevelopmentAgency MMA MahaicalMahaicony/Abary CPCE Cyril PorterCollegeof Education MMR i Measles, Mumps, Rubella i CTB I CentralTender Board MOE I Ministry of Education CSEC Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate MOHW Ministry of Housing &Water 1 D&I Drainage& Irrigation MOU Memorandum of Understanding j DCU i DonorCoordination Unit NARI I NatonalAgricultural Research Institute DDB i District Development Board NCERD National Centrefor Educational Resources DFID Department for International Development Development DPT Diptheria, Pertussis &Tetanus NCLDO National Congress of Local Democratic Organs E-HIPC Enhanced Highly Indebted Poor Countries NDC Neighbourhood Democratic Council EIU Executive Implementation Unit NDS I National Development Strategy EPA Environmental Protection Agency NFMU National Frequency Management Unit ERP i Economic Recovery Programme NGO Non-govemmental Organization EU European Union NIS | Na!onal Insurance Scheme FIA I Financial Institutions Act NRC National Review Conference GDF Guyana Defence Force NTB National Tourism Board GDP Gross Domestic Product PAHO I Pan-American Health Organisation GEAP Guyana Education Access Project PAP Participation Action Plan GEC Guyana Electricity Corporation PCU People's Cooperative Unit GITC Guyana Industrial Training Centre PEIP Primary Education Improvement Programme GNCB Guyana National Cooperative Bank PFP Policy Framework Paper GNNL I Guyana National Newspapers Limited PIU Poverty Implementation Unit GNP Gross National Product PNC People's National Congress GNS Guyana National Service PPP/C i People's Progressive Party/Civic GNSC Guyana National Shipping Corporation PPFP Prvatisation Policy Framework Paper GOG Govemment of Guyana PRGF Poverty Reduction Growth Facility GOINVEST GuyanaOfficeof Investment PRS Poverty Reduction Strategy GPC Guyana Pharmaceutical Corporation PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper GPH Georgetown Public Hospital PRSS | Poverty Reduction Strategy Secretariat GPL I Guyana Power &Light PSC Pnvate Sector Commission GPOC Guyana Post Office Corporation PSIP I PublicSectorlnvestmentProgramme GRDB j Guyana Rice Development Board PSMP | Public Service Modernization Project I GS&WC Georgetown Sewerage& Water Commissioners PSU Public Service Union GSC Guyana Securities Council RAD Roads Administration Division GTIfi Guyana Technical Institute RCS Regional Consultation Supervisor i GUM Genito Urinary Medicine RDC I Regional Democratic Council GUYOIL i Guyana Oil Company SIMAP Social Impact Amelioration Programme GUYSUCO I Guyana Sugar Corporation SPS State Planning Secretariat GUYWA I Guyana Water Authority SSN Social Safety Net HFLE Health &Family Life Education SSRP Secondary Schools Reform Programme HIES Household Income &Expenditure Survey STI Sexually Transmitted Infections HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries STEP Skills Training &Employment Programme HIV Human Immune Deficiency Virus TA TechnicalAssistance ICT Information &Communication Technology TB Tuberculosis IDA Intemational Development Agency UNDP I United Nations for Development Programme IDB Inter-American Development Bank US United States IFAD Intemational Fund for Agricultural Development USAID United States Agency for Intemational IFI Intemational Financial Institutions Development [ILO Intemational Labour Organisation VCS Vector Control Service IMCI Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses WTO I Worid Trade Organisaton IMF - Intemational Monetary Fund THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTN STATEGY PAER
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .I CHAPTER 4: NATIONAL POVERTY STRATEGY ...... 26 A.Profile of Guyana .1 A. Main Objectives of the Poverty Reduction Strategy 26 Origins of the Report .2 B.Priorities of the Poverty Reduction Program ...... 27 C.Structure of the Report...... 2 1.Economic Policies to Stimulate Growth .28 2.Good Govemance and the Business Environment . 33 CHATE2 AALSISOFPOERY ...... 3..4.InvestmentHuanCapta inHuman...... Cap....tal.. ... 3 CHAPTER 2: ANALYSIS OF POVERTY ...... 4.Infrastructureto Suppor Services 40 A. The 1999 Living Condiions Survey ...... 5 5.Safety Nets 42 1.The Extent of Poverty inGuyana ...... 5 6.Infrastructure to Support Growth .42 2. Poverty Gap ...... 6 7.Special Intervenon Strategies .44 3.Charateristics of the Poor ...... ,.6 C.Comparison of IPRSP and PRSP aftr Public B.The Causes and Effects of Poverty ...... 7 Consultaions ...... ; 1.Poor Economic Policies ...... 7 2.Poor Govemance.. ,...... 8 CHAPTER 5: THE MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK AND 3.Non-growth Complemengng Infrastructure ...... 10 BUDGETARY IMPLICATIONS FOR 4.Deterioration of Social Services ...... 11 PRIORITY ACTIONS ...... 50 ,_ ~C. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and its Nexus A Economic Growth Prospects.50 with the Natonal Development Strategy .12 B. Maintaining External Viability ...... 52 CHAPTER 3: PARTICIPATION AND POVERTY C.The Resource Envelope 2002-10 .53 REDUCTION ...... 13 1.Resource Allocation for the Poverty Action Plan: 2002-06 A. Organizational and Insttutional Framework ... 133...... 3 ...... 1 The DonorCoordination Unit ...... 13 D. Costing of Programs in Priority Sectors ...... 56 2. PRS Steering Committee ...... 14 3.Poverty Reduction Strategy Secretariat (PRSS) and CHAPTER 6: IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING AND Participation Action Plan (PAP) ...... 14 COORDINATION ...... 57 4.The Resource Teams . , ...... 15 A. Implementation of the Poverty Program ...... 57 B. PRSP Consultations ...... 15 1.The Role of Govemment ...... 57 1.Community Consultatons ...... 15 2.Role of Amerindians inCommunity Development ...... 53 2.Target Group Consultatons ...... 16 3. Empowering Communities ...... 58 3.Regional Consultations ...... ,,,,.,,,,, 16 B. Monitoring ...... ,,, 5g 4.National Review Conference ...... 16 1.Data AvailabilGiy and Program Monitoring ...... 59 5.ParcipaonandtheMedia ...... 17 2.Relevance of Indicators ...... 60 C.Issues Arising From Consultatons . .17 3.Monitoring Strategies ...... 61 1.UmitedEconomicOpportunities , 17 4.DonorCoordination Strategy 61 2.Poor Goverancem. 19 3.Unmet Expectations inEducaon ...... 20 CHAPTER 7: RISKS OF THE STRATEGY ...... 63 4.Inadequate Delivery of Health, Water and Sanitaton Services ...... I...... I...... I...... -I..... 20 A.NationalConsensus ,63 5.Underdevelopment of the Housing Sector ...... 21 B.Implementation Capacity ...... 63 D. Regional Consultations and Prioriffsation ...... 23 C.Availability ofExtemal Resources ...... 64 E Integrating Recommendations from Pubilc Consultaton Into D. Developments in the World Economy . .64 the PRSP . .. 24 ... E.Natural Disasters...... 64 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRAUGY PAPER liSt of Boxes, Tables and Charts
Chapter 2: Box 2.1 Measurement and Trends of Poverty in Guyana ...... 4 Figure 2.1 Guyana - Absolute and Extreme Poverty, 1993 and1999 ...... 5 Table 2.1 Demographic and Economic Profile by Region ...... 5 Table 2.2 Guyana Household Surveys, 1992 and 1999 .5 Table 2.3 Guyana Poverty Gap, 1993 & 1999 .6 Figure 2.2 Guyana: Per Capita Income, 1966-2001 .8 Box 2.2 Local Government System At A Glance .8 Box 2.3 The Privatisation Process in Guyana ...... 9...... 9 Box 2.4 Guyana - Public Accountability and Tender Reforms ...... 10 Table 2.4 Guyana - Selected Social Indicators, 1990-98 ...... 11
Chapter 3: Table 3.1 Consultations Held Countrywide ...... 16 Box 3.1 Perceptions of Poverty inGuyana ...... 17 Table 3.2 Recommendations Identified During Consultations ...... 22-23 Table 3.3 Priorities Arising From the Regional Consultations ...... 24 Box 3.2 Lessons Leamed from Consultation Process ...... 2...... 25 Chapter 4: Table 4.1 Functions of Human Rights Commissions ...... 36 Table 4.2 Comparison of I-PRSP and PRSP Strategy, Policy and Programs ...... 48 Chapter 5: Table 5.1 Guyana - Selected Economic and Financial Indicators ...... 51 Table 5.2 Guyana - Balance of Payments ...... 52 Table 5.3 Guyana - Extemal Financing Requirements, 2002-2010 ...... 53 Table 5.4 Guyana - Poverty Reduction Budget Strategy .54 Table 5.5 Guyana - Budgeted Capital Spending in Priority Sectors .55 Table 5.6 Guyana - Budgeted Recurrent Spending in Priority Sectors .56
Chapter6: Table 6.1 Guyana - Quantitative Goals of the PRS .60 Chart I Poverty Reduction Planning Framework .62
THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
A. Profile of Guyana
Guyana is amulti-racial country with an area of about 215,000 square 1 kilometres and apopulation of about 747,000 or a population den- sity of less than 4 persons per square kilometre. Because of mas- sive emigration, the country's population growth in the past two de- cades has been marginal.
Bounded on the north by the Atlantic Ocean, on the east by Surname, on the south and southwest by Brazil, and on the west and northwest by Venezuela, Guyana isthe only English-speaking country inSouth Amerca. The country consists of four types of landform. The first is the flat, coastal clay belt where most agricultural activity takes place, and which is protected by sea defences, as they lie about 1.4 metres INTRODU CTION below sea level. The second isthe sand belt to the south of the coastal belt, which includes the intermediate savannahs. The third landform is an undulating, central peneplain, which comprises more than half of the country's area and in which is located lush, almost pristine, tropical forests and extensive mineral deposits. This land- form stretches from the sand belt to the country's southem boundary and also encompasses the Rupununi Savannahs, which border Brazil. The fourth landform isthe highlands, which are to be found in the midwestem area. This portion of the Guiana Highlands includes the Pakaraima mountain range.
Guyana lies wholly in the tropics and possesses an equatorial cli- mate that is characterized by seasonal rainfall, high humidity, and small variations intemperature. There are two rainy seasons, which occur from May to June and from November to January. The aver- age daily temperature is about 26.7 degrees Celsius.
The country is well endowed with natural resources, fertile agricul- tural land, diversified mineral deposits, and a large acreage of tropi- cal forests. The economy is basically natural resource based, with agriculture (mainly sugar and rice), bauxite, gold, and timber ac- counting for most of the output inthe productive sectors. Hydroelec- tric potential is immense.
Guyana is divided into 10 administrative regions with varying popu- lation density and economic activities. Region 8 is the least popu- lated with fewer than 6,000 people while Region 4,which includes the capital, boasts a population of almost 300,000. The low popula- tion density and difficult terrain in many regions make it costly to provide basic social services and develop infrastructure critical to support economic production. THE GUYANA POVERtY REDUCTN RATEGY PAPER
B. Origins of the Report
Despite its abundant resources, Guyana is one of the poorest countries in the Westem Hemisphere, with a per capita income of US$770 in 2000. In recognition of the country's high incidence of poverty, in 1993 the Govemment sought assistance from the Carter Center to develop 4homegrown policies' whose implementation would improve standards of living. The National Development Strategy (NDS) that emerged was deep in content and analysis. Its formulation was truly participatory. Over 200 professionals from Govemment and civil society, including NGOs, the business community and the University of Guyana, working in over 23 technical groups, were involved in producing this comprehensive document; the 6-volume NDS contains 42 chapters. During its preparation, and after the completion of the first draft in 1996, its formulators visited several regions of Guyana to leam the people's wishes, hopes and aspirations directly from them, and to obtain ideas for the solution of their local problems. The NDS was subsequently revised and updated in 1998 and 1999 by an independent group of members of civil society, tabled in Parliament in August 2000, and following a hiatus to accommodate preparations for elections, re-tabled in August 2001.
In October 1999, the Govemment organised a Business Summit with the private sector to chart a new course of rapid investment and growth in Guyana, with the twin goals of employment creation and poverty reduction. The objectives of that Summit were to identify the constraints that impede private sector development, and to seek a consensus on the measures to be put in place to accelerate private investment. The Summit formulated an action plan to advance the course of private sector development and subsequently established a joint Govemment-private sector unit to oversee its implementation.
In 2000, using the vast information available from the NDS and the Business Summit, the Govemment began the task of developing a Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) that would place sustained emphasis on policies and programs that would markedly reduce poverty. There were very good reasons for this. In a 1992 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS), about 43 percent of the population was found to live below the poverty line. Although within a very short span of 8 years absolute poverty levels had fallen by over a third, the Govemment found it imperative to develop a comprehensive strategy that would further reduce poverty by 50 percent by 2015.
The Govemments Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) was accepted by the Boards of the World Bank and the Intemational Monetary Fund (IMF) in December 2000. A comprehensive public participation process to finalise the PRSP was then conducted until October 2001. The process was based on a plan which focused on face- to-face consultations and which was developed and adopted by large sections of civil society and the donor commu- nity. A Poverty Reduction Strategy Secretariat (PRSS) was established in the Office of the President to implement the Participation Action Plan (PAP).
The consultations were very successful. With actve participation by a large cross-section of the population, signifi- cant issues not mentioned in the I-PRSP were discussed. Many of the issues and recommendations from the public consultations have been incorporated into the PRSP. In addition, through prioritisation of recommendations, the consultations have assisted in the sequencing of programs and reallocation of resources. In short, the public consul- tations have markedly helped to improve the content and substance of the PRSP. C. Structure of the Report
Following this introductory chapter, Chapter 2 is devoted to the analysis of poverty. The key questions addressed concem the trends, characteristics, causes and effects of poverty. Here is a large country with diverse natural re- sources. It is one of the Caribbean countries which had a highly educated population. In the 1970s, Guyana also had one of the highest per capita incomes in the region. Although like many countries in the Caribbean, South East Asia, and Africa, it experienced the severe economic shocks that rocked the global economy and threw most developing THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER countries into a state of depression in the 1970s and early 1980s, many of those countries, especially in the Caribbean and South East Asia, emerged from these shocks and began a steady and sustained growth that has resulted in improved living condibions for their people. What went wrong with Guyana? What was different in Guyana?
Public participation is the focus of the next chapter. Although the l-PRSP benefited from the public consultations related to the NDS and the Business Summit, the public was not directly consulted in the preparation of the document. To benefit from the experiences and wisdom of the population, the Govemment, in close collaboration with civil society, developed mechanisms to freely allow the public to contribute to the enrichment of the PRSP., First, Chapter 3 reviews the organisational and institutional framework that underpinned the participation process. Second, it dis- cusses the implementation of the consultation plan, in particular, community, target group and regional consultations. Next, it presents the issues raised and recommendations proposed. The integration of the consultation results and the lessons leamed are also discussed in the final section of this chapter.
Chapter 4 presents a program designed to reduce poverty over the medium term. This program is informed by past experience, recommendations from public consultabons, and the Govemment's own development agenda. It out- lines the requirements for economic and social progress - the actions that must be taken to reduce poverty. The strategy is organised around interrelated requirements. First, there is the urgent need to improve the economic and regulatory environmnent to create economic opportunities, particularly for the poor, and to generate sustained growth. Second, there is the need for good govemance and participatory democracy at the community level. The third requirement is the construction and/or rehabilitation of complementing infrastructure to sustain growth, while the fourth is improving the delivery and quality of social services. The need to address regional pockets of poverty is also taken up in this section.
The macroeconomic framework and budgetary implicabons of the poverty program are addressed in Chapter 5. In particular, key assumptions that underpin projections of intemal and extemal balances are clearly spelt out. The financing requirements are discussed, taking into account resource availabilities, resource uses and financing gaps. Priority allocations of resources to sectors and their justification are also discussed in this section, as are unit costs of the poverty program.
Chapter 6 deals with the key issues of program implementabon, monitoring and coordination. The roles of Govem- ment and civil society, as well as institutional and capacity constraints, are outlined in this section. Measures to deal with capacity building, monitoring, reporting and coordination of the program are described.
Guyana's Poverty Reduction Program has also taken into account the present extemal and political environment. Even so, there are still risks that can affect the attainment of the targets set in the PRSP. This is taken up in the final chapter.
3 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Poverty is multi-faceted. It manifests itself in low and uneven levels of income and consumption, physical insecurity, poor health, low levels of education, disempowerment, high levels of unemployment, and social and geographical isolation. Understandably, different methodologies
some of these methodologies and their application to poverty measure- ment in Guyana. Until the 1993 household survey (see below), different methodologies were used to measure poverty by the Inter-Amercan De- velopment Bank (IDB), the Social Impact Amelioration Program (SIMAP), and the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO). In the absence of any meaningful survey data, per capita income was used as a proxy to measure welfare.
A NA IYS~IS ( Box 2.1: Measurement and Trends of Poverty in Guyana There are at least four different ways of measuring poverty. There isthe headcount approach generally used by the World Bank where standards of I living are measured by household expenditures per capita. The second meth- O F Iodology, the Human Development Indicator, calculated by the United Nations I Development Programme, isa composite measure of human development . lE D TV tcontaining indicators representing three equally weighted dimensions of human I development: longevity, knowledge, and income. The third methodology, the PO VER T Integrated Poverty Index, the Basic Needs Index, and the Global Indicator of Access to Cumulafive Social Development Index, calculated by the Pan Ameri- can Health Organisation, isderived from a twofold classification of countries: five income class groups based on Gross National Product (GNP), adjusted for purchasing power parity and degree of access by the population to five aspects of social development: health, education, nutrients, sanitaton, and economic resources. Of the data available, only the consumption-based measures cur- i rently provide sufficient information for analysis inGuyana. I Therehave been several attempts to quantify levels of poverty inGuyana over the last two decades. PAHO estimated that at least 50 percent of the population eamed less than 55 percent of the mean income in 1971. Based on this distribution of income, itwas estmated that approximately 38 percent of the population in 1971 fell below the poverty line. Boyd estimated that the poverty level had risen to include 65 percent of the population in 1988, and by 1989, 1 taking into account the rapid worsening of inflaton, that 75 percent of the popu- lation had incomes below the poverty line. The Ramprakash study in 1991 calculated that if receiving official nutritional requirements was the underlying i criterion, an estimated 86 percent of the populabon would fall under the poverty line. Both the 1993 and 1999 poverty surveys in Guyana used the headcount I approach. However, these measurements have their limitations. To account for the inherent weakness inusing either consumption or income data as the sole I measure of welfare, the PRSP will also discuss other indicators of well being, such as nutriton, life expectancy, and mortality, to the extent possible.
The 1993 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES)/Living Stan- dards Measurement Survey (LSMS) carried out by the Govemment, with assistance from the UNDP and World Bank, used the headcount index to measure poverty. The survey showed that about 43 percent of the popu- lation lived below the poverty line, with 29 percent living in extreme pov- erty. The incidence of poverty was highest in rural areas, particularly in interior locations. THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
A. The 1999 Living Conditions Survey
1. The Extent of Poverty in Guyana Figure 2.1: GUYANA * Absolute and Extreme Poverty, In 1999, Guyana completed a Living Conditions Survey 1993 and 1999 (LCS) to measure the impact of economic and social pro- * AsltemPovet grams on poverty. The survey indicated a reduction inpov- 45 erty levels. The proportion of the populaffon living below the 35 poverty line was found to be 35 percent, with 19 percent 2 living under condifions of extreme poverty. This represented E2 a decrease of 19 percent inthe incidence of absolute pov- 0 _ erty levels and of 34 percent in the incidence of extreme 5 poverty. Figure 2.1 shows the comparison of poverty levels 1993 YEAR 1999 in 1993 and 1999.
Table 2.1: Demographic and Economic Profile by Region The survey also showed that poverty lev- EIr Population Area Population Main Economic Activities els among all ethnic groups had de- Sq. Km Density clined. 1 18,294 7,853 2.3 Fruits (avocado, citrus), fishing, forestry, agm-processing (Heartof Palm) Poverty had also fallen in urban and 2 43,139 2,392 18.0 Rice, coconuts, fishing, fruits coastal areas, with Georgetown show- 3 95,276 1,450 65.7 Rice, sugar, ground provisions, fishing ing the highest reduction, while condi- 4 294,493 862 341.6 Rice,sugar,forestry(StCuthberts), tions in the rural interior had changed fishing, vegetables, livestock, poultry, marginally. processing, forest products, coconuts,
5 51,274 1,610 31.8 Rice, sugar, logging (Moraikobai), As shown in Table P.1, Guyana is divided groundprovisions,vegetables,fruit, into 10 regions, some of which are coconuts, livestock sparsely populated and remote. In four 6 141,455 13,998 10.1 Rice, sugar, cattle, logging, vegetables, of the regions, the sample size used in fruits, mining (bauxite) the 1999 survey was too small, and there- 7 14,682 18,229 0.8 Mining (gold), small scale farming, fore the results contained relatively large balata, ecotounsm 8 5,574 7,742 0.7 Miningb(gold, diamonds) usingmargins the of data error. to drawCaution statistically is required valid in 9 14,947 22,313 0.7 Livestock, craft, crop farming conclusions about poverty profiles at the 10 39,271 6,595 6.0 Mining, logging, farming (dverain area), level of each of the ten regions. Never- theless, the sample is large enough to make statistically valid conclusions at the Table 2.2: Guyana Household Surveys, 1993 and 1999 broad geographical level. A comparison ______^of the surveys at the broad geographical Hr* " xtrr P POW level appears in Table 2.2. Gw 1S 1992 1999 '99 1992 la 1992 1999 %rs StLO0%M Sg Regardless of the sample size, there is 45 5f f 1,91 9 0 2.9 16.3 U * -12U6 an inherent bias in using eitherconsump- OmLhM 214 26 E t13 23 17 1 154 OS * .77 NS RS m 1,2 SAt 2I7 V9 156 4S2 43 * 5. ion or income data as the sole measure R,dbtatw 1S 210 93 ,18i 70s SLO 7&6 MS 172 Us of welfare. In part, this is because neither Qam tt1,81 Z 12 9.126 2a7 21.3 42 35 * 47A measure captures the significant Yuderiypw progress that was made in improving 1094quariluriW exaifwd na..4b s phNS-rddat1g "riew health status, access to housing, educa- tion and public services, which are criti- THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTON STRATEGY PAER cal to one's standard of living. For example, many Amerindians who in the past did not have access to housing, water, and health and educabon facilities now benefit from these basic services. To the extent that the surveys do not capture these improvements, they tend to exaggerate the prevalence and depth of poverty. Also, in comparing the welfare levels of households in the interior to those in other areas, adjustments were not made for the alternative consumption pattems and variabons in the imputed value of certain items, furthier biasing the results. Table 2.3: Guyana Poveny Gap, 1993 and 1999
2. Poverty Gap Region 1993 1999 The poverty gap measures the depth of poverty. As Table Gap Gap 2.3 shows, in Guyana, the gap diminished between 1993 Georgetown 8.7 5.4 and 1999. Forthe country as awhole, itfell from 16.2 percent OtherUrban 6.3 3.0 to 12.4 percent. This means that there has been substantial Rural Coastal 14.4 11.3 progress in reducing both poverty and the depth of poverty. It Rural Interior 46.1 44.9 also means that in order to reduce poverty, growth is the Guyana 16.2 12A best opton. Sources: Bureau of Statistcs, 1999 GLCS and Wodd Bank, 1994 3. Characteristics of the Poor a) Demographic characteristics of the poor Most of the poor in Guyana live in rural areas. They are largely self-employed in agriculture or work as manual labourers. In urban areas, the incidence of the poor is highest among the unemployed and those working as domestic workers and in the construction sector. The proportion of poor households headed by women is similar to that of non- poor households, suggesting that female headship is not necessarily a cause of poverty. Similarly, the age of the head of the household seems not to have any bearing on poverty, the average age of the household head, at 43.6 years, being fairly even across all welfare groups. One of the main differences among poor and non-poor households, however, is in the number of people living in the household. Households in the poorest quintle are likely to have two more people, both of them children, than those in the other quintiles. This means that poor households are not only larger, but that each wage eamer, in a poor household supports a larger number of dependent children.
b) Geographic distribution of the poor Poverty is very unevenly distributed throughout the country. The lowest incidence of poverty is in the urban areas, where fewer than one in six are poor, although there are urban pockets of poverty where the incidence is higher than the norm. The highest incidence is in the rural interior. The high incidence of poverty in the hinterland areas is largely the result of isolation. These areas are far removed from the hubs of economic activity and are thinly populated, with less than 10 percent of the total populabon.
Communications between the coastal areas, where most of the economic actvities take place, and the interior are poor. Roads and telephones are practcally non-existent and often the only means of communication are airplanes and riverboats. Consequently, prices are higher, choices more limited, and public services more costly to render. Moreover, well-remunerated job opportunities are scarce. Although in recent years the mining and timber industries have provided job opportunities in the interior, this has also meant that several heads of household have had to spend extended periods away from home.
c) Education and labour force participation Levels of education among poor households are lower than those of the population as a whole. Less than 15 percent of the heads of poor households have completed a secondary or higher level of education. Educational attainment in rural areas, where many of the poor are located, is low. In the rural coastal regions, less than 14 percent of household heads have achieved a secondary or higher level of education as compared to 23 percent in Georgetown. The situaton is worse in interior regions where less than 13 percent of poor households have received secondary educa- THE GUYANA POVERTY RIDUCnION STRATEGY PAPER tion. About 41 percent of households under the poverty line are employed in agriculture. Although for the other sectors the linkage between the type of employment and poverty is not that clear, in construction there is a substantial number of unskilled labourers who work for very low wages and fall below the poverty line, as do domestic workers and other types of domestic help (see above). B. The Causes and Effects of Poverty
Although no one factor, or group of factors, may be singled out as the cause and effect of poverty, the evidence in Guyana suggests that low and/or negative economic growth accounted for the pervasive and persistent level of poverty in the country. This, in tum, stemmed from (i) poor economic policies; (ii) poor govemance; (iii) non-comple- menting growth-oriented infrastructure; and (iv) deterioration in the quantum and quality of social services.
1. Poor Economic Policies As a result of the 'statisr policies adopted by the Govemment from the mid-1970s to 1989, GDP fell by 3.3 percent per year between 1982 and 1990, and per capita income plummeted from US$600 to U$350 in the same period. In addition, real interest rates were generally negative, gross intemational reserves were depleted, and Guyana increas- ingly relied on suppliers' credit to finance its extemal trade. As economic difficulties mounted and extemal and intemal balances deteriorated, the country-was unable to meet debt service obligations, leading to the cessation of support from the Intemational Financial Institutions (IFI). This, in tum, further deepened the economic crisis, depress- ing investments, employment and growth.
By 1988, the Govemment controlled over 80 percent of the total value of recorded imports and exports and 85 percent of total investment. Import cover was less than two weeks, and there was virtually no new domestic or foreign invest- ment. -The most dramatic reaction to the deterioration in living standards and the increase in poverty was the massive emigration of highly trained Guyanese to North America, the United Kingdom and other countries of the Caribbean.
To arrest the worsening social and economic conditions, Govemment introduced changes in the economy with the implementation of the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) in 1989. The key elements of the ERP were (i) liberalisation of the exchange and trade system; (ii) removal of price controls and subsidies; (iii) removal of restrictions on capital flows; and (iv) reforms in tax policy and administration. In spite of the implementation of these reforms, the economy continued to contract, with GDP falling precipitously by 5 percent per year between 1989 and 1991 and inflation rising in excess of 100 percent in 1991.
In 1992, the Govemment accelerated the pace of economic and structural reforms. Measures were introduced to (i) strengthen and modemise the regulatory and supervisory framework of the Bank of Guyana; (ii) reform the financial sector, (iii) improve the legal and regulatory framework; and (iv) reform the judicial system and Deeds Registry. A new Companies Law was enacted, and actions were taken to establish regulatory frameworks for insurance and securi- ties trading. An ambitious privatisabon program was also implemented.
As a result, Guyana experienced sustained positive growth rates and single digit inflation. Real output grew at over 7.4 percent a year, allowing per capita income to increase from US$380 to US$750 between 1992 and 1996. This output trend was sustained by a buoyant intemational economic environment, underpinned by Guyana's access to preferen- tal markets and large inflows of private capital, and led by growth in gold, rice, sugar and forestry. Over the past three years, however, economic growth has slowed due to exogenous factors including a decline in commodity prices, unfavourable weather conditions and a difficult domestic political and industrial environment. Despite the rapid growth in per capita income over the last several years, Guyana still remains one of the poorest countries in the Westem Hemisphere. Figure 2.2 shows the trend in per capita income over the last 25 years. THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCnION STRATEGY PAPER
Figure 2.2: Guyana - Per Capita Income, 1966-2000 900 ____ ...... 2. PoorGovernance eoo . The_ economic! and political struc- 700 tures were discriminatory and un- 600 democratic, and lacked adequate 50soo0 \ / | representation to support rapid growth D 400 .a..n____/_ d employment creation in the pri- 300 ___ vate sector. The key issues in poor 200 govemance centred around (i) a rigid and non-participatory system of local 16, govemment administration; and (ii) 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 weak regulatory and institutional sys- Year tems. a) Non-Participatory system of local govemment Box 2.2: Local Government System At AGlance In 1980, the Govemment, through an Thel 980 Constitution identied these levels of govemment: Act of Padiament, implemented a law Supreme Congress of the People that divided Guyana into ten admin- Parliarrent istrative regions. Nafional Congress of Local Democratic Organs (NCLDOs) Neighborhood Democratic Councils (NDCs) Accompanying the ten regions, the People's Cooperative Units (PCU) Under the Local Democratic Organ (LDO) Act 1980, Guyana was divided into 10 law also provided for five tiers of lo- administrative regions, each with a local democratic organ known as the Regional cal administration (see Box 2.2). In Democratic Council (RDC). The RDC's primary duty isto ensure efficient manage- practice, only Regional Administra- ment and development of its area, to develop leadership by example, to organise tions, sub-regional divisions and, to popular cooperation in respect of the political, economic, cultural and social develop- mentof its area, and to preserve law and order. Each RDC elects one of its members some extent, the People's Coopera- to serve as member of the National Assembly. Inaddition, each RDC elects two of its tive Units (PCUs) became opera- members to the National Congress of Local Democratic Organs. tional. With the introduction of the LDO Act, the three tiers of Constitutional provision were used to legitimise and guarantee control of political power by the People's National Congress (PNC). The administrative apparatus of party paramountcy was made up of The local government system also the linkages between Regional Councils, the NCLDO and the National Assembly. suffered from an inherent contradic- The decision to hold local govemment elections,gave rise to the introduction of the tion and underlying structural defi- Neighborhood Democratic Councils with demarcation of 129 areas into which were absorbed the previous Village Councils, District Councils, and County Authority. ciency. From the outset, available Following the October 1992 general elections, the People's Progressive Party/ human resources did not match the Civic (PPP/C) Govemment approved 65 NDCs as the basis for the first local govern- demand and needs of communities. mentelections. These elections took place in 1994, after an absence of 24 years. The Growing inefficiencies and declining impetus for strengthening local govemment was given concrete support by Ministerial delivery of services at all levels gave Circularof October 1994, which delegated to the RDC, powersof supervision overthe NDCs. rse to negative political and social The new local govemment structure presently consists of 10 RDCs, 65 NDCs, 6 consequences at the community municipalities and 76 Amerndian Village Councils. level. Constitutonal reform in2000 created provisions for the abolition of two tiers of the 1980 Constitution -the Supreme Congress of the People and the NCLDOs -neither of which contributed to the effective participation of communities inthe local govemment Since 1992, Govemment has taken system. measures to promote the function- Although the law requires that local government elections should be held every 2 ing of the market and democracy. years, the Government alone cannot hold these elections. Under the Carter Center 9 Y- formula enshrined inthe Constitution, both the Govemment and the oppositon political The democractic process was parties would have to agree by consensus on the mechanism for holding of local institutionalised with the restoration government elections. With the ongoing dialogue between the two main politcal par- of free and fair elections. In particu- ties, it islikely that local government elections will be held in 2002. lar, local govemment elections were THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER held forthe firsttime inovertwo decades in 1994. Inaddition, conditions of service were improved forthe judiciary and facilities, including a Law Library, were established. Furthermore, indigenous peoples were empowered by the creation of the Ministry of Amerindian Affairs. Equally important, changes were introduced to make Parliament a more deliberative body. These reforms are supported by the several pieces of legislation passed by the National Assembly. However, much more remains to be done to fully involve communities in the management of their own affairs.
b) Weak reaulatory and institutional support Until recently, the regulatory and institutional framework was not conducive to private sector initiative and develop- ment. Systemic deficiencies such as poor land administration, a weak public sector and inefficient tender and procurement systems acted as major constraints to economic growth, thereby exacerbating the persistence of poverty. Inaddition, the 'critical mass' of necessary conditions, defined as the appropriate mix of land, credit, equip- ment and machinery essential for production, was largely absent.
Inthe public sector, the administration of state lands was poor. Official records for the most part were indisarray. Rents were at variance with market values. No clear criteria for the approval or denial of leasing applications for land existed. Procedures were extremely inefficient. Moreover, there was no land inventory database, and several institutions, often with weak management and overlapping legal mandates, acted as authorities, planners, or advisors in the utilisation of land for forestry, mining, housing, and agriculture. There was little or no coordination. Box 2.3: The Privatisation Process in Guyana As a result, the quality of services deteriorated, the qual- The privatisation of pubic enterprises began in 1989. The ity and composition of public employment, particularly process lacked transparency and accountability and was man- at aged inan ad hoc fashion. Indeed, the management of the at the management and technical levels, became se- privatsabion process came under severe criticism inthe World verely skewed and weakened, and financial manage- Bank's Public Administration Reform study. ment and control became over-centralised and inef- After the election of the PPP/C Govemment in 1992, a fech've. Perhaps not unexpectedly, there were overlap- Privatisation Policy Framework Paper (PPFP) was tabled in Parliament in1993. This paper was designed to improve the ping jurisdictions and functional responsibilities. Fur- transparency and accountability inthe privatisation of public thermore, the legal procurement framework for goods, enterprises. Itsetsouta3-staoeinstitutonalstructureconsisting works, and services was deficient and outdated. The of the PrivaUsation Unit, the Privatisation Board and Cabinet. organisational structure for procurement at the Central The Prvatisation Unit was structured as the technical secre- tariat reporing to the Privatisabon Board. The Privasation Board Tender Board was also weak and inefficient, lacked consisted of Ministers of Government, representatives of the transparency, and was govemed by procedures that private sector, the trade unions, and the consumer movement. were often cumbersome. Recommendations of the Board are subject to Cabinet approval. Since the publication of the PPFP, more than 20 public enter- prises have been privatised, bringing the total number of public Inaddition to these systemic problems, inthe absence enterprises privatised to 33. By the end of 2002, the Govem- of an investment guide and code, there was nothing to ment would have privatised three of the remaining six entities. inform potential investors of the existing incentive frame- The only three ommeroal entdGs nsotearmarked for pnvaesaont work or of any guarantees for the protection of their are GUYSUCO, GUYOIL and GNSC. Presently, these entities are undergoing structural reforms to improve their efficiency. investment, or of the procedures for the resolution of The Govemment's privatisation program has been very in- conflicts. On the contrary, restrctions on foreign cur- novative. Where Govemment has majority shares, itreserves- rency, transfers of dividends and profits, and the inabil- 10% of the company for acquisition by employees. Inaddition, ity of the Govemment to meet the foreign cumency needs the evaluation process of bids has been expanded to allow participabon by representatives of the various stakeholder of the deposits of foreign investors at the Central Bank, groups. created a perverse business environment. Guyana's privatisation program has been supported with technical assistance from the Woid Bank and the British Depart- Since the 1990s, the Govemment has taken steps to ment for Intemational Development (DF ID). Over this period, the institutional capacity of the privatisabon program has been improve the regulatory and institutional framework. The strengthened. As aresult, the privabsation process has been Guyana Lands and Surveys Commission was estab- shortened. lished to streamline the allocation of land titles, an In- THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCtION STRATEGY PAPER vestment Code was laid in Parliament to inform and protect potential investors, and civil service reforms were carded out in 1993 to rationalise the number of Govemment ministries. In addition, there were significant reforms in the regulatory framework. These included (i) the passage of the Financial Institutions Act (FIA); (ii) stricter prudential regulations; (iii) improved banking supervision; and (iv) the Money Laundering Act. As a result, a stable exchange rate and a viable financial sector were maintained.
Further, the Govemment took steps to improve ' Box 2.4: the efficiency and transparency of the Guyana- Public Accountability and Tender Reforms privatisation programme (see Box 2.3), to re- form the tender and procurement system, and Since 1992, the Government has undertaken fundamental reforms to to improve public accountability (See Box 2.4). procurementcorrect many systems.of the flaws Although in public the accountabilityConstitution required and in thatthe tenderthe Auditor and Towards this end, the Office of the Auditor General submit reports of public accounts to Parliament on an annual basis, General was strengthened and Constitutional this law was not complied with for more than 9 years. With a stronger requirements on the auditing of public ac- commitment to public accuntability, the newAdministration in1992 strength- countscopliedere ith, Inadditin, re- ened the Office of the Auditor General with increased allocation of resources. counts were complied with. In addition, re- As aresult, audited annual reports of public accounts have been submitted forms and systems were introduced to im- to Parliament since 1992. prove the Ministerial, Regional and Central In1996, the Central Tender Board Secretarat was established and pub- Tender Boards. In particular, public consulta- lic consultations were held with contractors and consultants to find ways to heldtakeoldesith todetemine improve the tendering and procurement system. As aresult, the Govern- tfons were held with stakeholders to determine ment implemented a number of measures including (i) public opening of ways of improving the procurement system. tenders; (ii)review and audit of the tender process by the Office of the Auditor General; (iii) nomination of independent evaluation teams; (iv)writ- Although these reforms may have contributed ten evaluation reports; and (v)regular meetings of the tender boards. In2000, Constitutional amendments required the establishment of aNa- to attracting investment, generating growth tional Procurement Commission to oversee the operabions of the Central and reducing poverty, it is clear that to encour- Tender Board. The Secretariat of this Commission will be established in age more private sector investment, in the 2002 and the Procurement and Tender (Amendment) Bill will be tabled in. context of liberalisation and globalisation, sig- Parliament by June 2002. Due to the Constitutional reforms that took place in nicanst a a2000, and the requirements for the establishment of the Public Procurement nificant structural and regulatory reforms will, Commission, the Govemment, despite public consultabions on the draft Pro- still be necessary. curement Act could not present the Bill to Parliament. With the anticipated establishment of the Commission in 2002, legislation to support the work of 3. Non-growth Complementing this body will be submitted to Parliament by the end of June 2002. Inhastucture The deterioration in intemal and external financial balances significantly reduced the resources available to maintain economic infrastructure, generate economic growth, and create employment. Since, over 70 percent of Guyana's populafion live in rural areas along a narrow coastal strip below sea level and are involved in agriculture, mining, fishing, forestry, road and river transportation, and maintenance of both sea defences and drainage and inigation (D&1) systems are critical to increased output. Yet, Guyana did not have the resources to maintain and/or rehabilitate its critical infrastructure. As a result, the transportation network fell into a serious state of disrepair, greatly increasing the cost of goods in Georgetown. It also made it costly for private entrepreneurs to operate, especially in the hinter- land. The lack of maintenance made interior roads impassable, and the deterioration of ferry services made river transportation and river crossing, in particular, a severe bottleneck to trade and economic production.
Frequent power outages forced businesses to operate high-cost generators. Companies that used water in industrial processes had to dig their own wells or truck water from central locations. The collapse of telephone services meant that it was very difficult to communicate within Guyana and overseas, forcing some businesses to operate entirely without telephones. Inadequate port facilities required expensive trans-shipment of goods to larger ports. The deterio- ration of the network of sea defences led to flooding of agricultural and residential land by sea water, which continues to threaten the coastal strip where most of Guyana's farmland lies.
Over the last decade, Guyana began to rehabilitate its economic infrastructure, including its road network, bridges, riE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
D&8,water systems, and sea defences. In tandem with these changes, more acres of land were brought under cultivation, resulting in the rapid expansion of rice and sugar production. This, in part, may explain the reduction of poverty between 1993 and 1999. Yet, to further reduce poverty to acceptable limits, it is crucial that infrastructure development is accelerated to sustain growth, especially in rural and hinterland communities.
4) Deterioration of Social Services Dwindling public sector resources led to a marked deterioration in public health and educational services and to a rise in poverty. In the health sector, several clinics and health centres lacked basic facilities, personnel, drugs and medical supplies, thereby denying many, especially the poor, access to health services, and forcing them to spend substantial portions of their income on private health care. In education, inequities in spending across and within regions and sectors; an exodus of trained teachers to the Caribbean and North America; and difficulties in stationing teachers at interior and rural locations affected quality, access, and enrolment and contributed to poverty in disadvan- taged areas. Managers frequently cited the low educational levels in specialised skills as one of the constraints to their companies' development. Vocational training facilities also began to experience shortages of the teachers and equipment necessary to provide adequate training in technical skills. In the water sector, poor quality often resulted in the contamination and spread of water-bome diseases. This affected the poor and was one of the major causes of infant mortality. In addition, poor quality housing, often characterised by large-scale squatting, unfit dwellings; and deteriorating urban neighborhoods, deepened the persistence of poverty, especially among children.
A reorientation of the budget has led to greater emphasis on social services since 1993. Schools and health centres have been rehabilitated/constructed and housing schemes have been developed. In addition, there has been a tremendous increase in the availability of drugs and medical supplies, and in the allocation of leaming materials. As a result, there is some improvement in key social indicators, as shown in Table 2.4.
But these successes are mixed. The number of households with access to water increased significantly and the level of immunisation was raised markedly. In other key areas such as infant mortality, there was a marginal decline. Worse still, there are emerging areas such as HIV/AIDS that require quick and urgent attention.
Insummary, the poverty profile points to a number of important factors for poverty reduction. First, the analyses suggest that economic growth is essential for poverty reduction. With per capita income of less than US$3 per day, there is very little scope for income redistribubon as a mechanism for poverty reducfion. Second, they suggest the urgent need to redress the uneven spatial distribution. This is crucial in efforts to integrate rural and interior economies into the overall development framework. Third, the analyses make clear the importance of sound economic policies, comple- mented by economic and social infrastructures and regulatory and insfitutional reforms. Finally, the analyses suggest the importance of developing human resource capacity to formulate and implement-programs.
Table 2.4: Guyana - Selected Social Indicators, 1990D98
Health Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) 52.0 50.0 49.0 47.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 58.0 Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000 chlidren) 90.0 . .. 65.0 .. 61.0 .. 83.0 82.0 79.0 Low birlh-wgt babies
Sources: Bureau of Statistics; Ministry of Education; Ministry of Health THE GUYAN POVERTY IEDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
C. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and its Nexus with the National Development Strategy
In recognition of the causes of poverty, the Govemment developed the NDS. The objectves of the NDS are to (i) achieve sustainable growth rates; (ii)reduce poverty; (iii) achieve geographical unity; (iv) ensure equitable geographi- cal distribution of economic acfivity; and (v) diversify the economy. The achievement of sustainable growth is predi- cated on prudent economic policy and management, including the introduction of far-reaching reforms-to-enhance the business environment; good govemance with inclusivity, participation, accountability and transparency; and development of strategic investments in the infrastructure sector to complement rapid private sector development.
Inaddifion, although rapid and sustainable growth may reduce poverty, the NDS advocates comprehensive reforms in the social sector as essenbal for improving service delivery, especially to the poor, and providing opportunities for the future. The NDS thus envisions significant increases in resources to provide universal access to secondary educa- ton, health, water, housing and other social programs. Further, the NDS provides a thorough analysis and proposes comprehensive recommendations for improving the regulatory and insttutional framework, laying out a broad legis- lafive agenda critical to the successful implementation of economic and social programs.
Although the NDS enjoys widespread support from the public, political parties and the donor community, there are disagreements on some of its recommendafions. The anticipated debate on the Strategy in the National Assembly will assist in producing a document that will be supported by all political parties and thereby secure its full implemen- tafion, regardless of the Govemment of the day. Already, Govemment is implementing several recommendations in the NDS and donor programming is being informed by this document.
The PRSP is directly linked to the NDS in the areas of economic policy, good govemance, infrastructure development and improvement in social services with the objecfive of reducing poverty. However, the NDS has limations which are addressed in the PRSP. The NDS is a strategy for development that spans a 25-year period and contains broad and general ideas of the way forward. However, it does not contain (i) an action plan for implementabon; (ii) costng; (iii) financing requirements; and (iv) sources of financing. In contrast, financing is available for the implementabon of programs in the PRSP, and the PRSP not only provides a strategy for poverty reducton in the medium term, it also sets priorities and develops an acfion plan for implementabon.
Like the Policy Framework Paper (PFP) that it replaces, the PRSP will be revised every three years through a partici- patory process. With its 25-year horizon, the NDS will serve as a reference document for future PRSPs. However, to maintain the relevance of the Strategy, the NDS itself will go through a series of consultations and revisions on a periodic basis, to take into account emerging issues, lessons learned, changes in development orientation and overall economic progress in Guyana.
12 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Clearly, the formulation and implementation of policies and programs designed to reduce poverty cannot continue to be the purview of the Govemment alone. Given the multi-faceted nature of poverty, it is impor- tant that key stakeholders, in particular the poor, become involved in programs that will affect them. The essence of public consultations, therefore, isto help Govemment not only to identify the prorties of stake- holders but also to determine ways in which they can contribute to the reduction0of poverty. This process of public consultations was launched on June 18, 2001.
Over 200 consultations, consisting of 109 community and 98 target group consultations, were conducted. This compares favourably with 72 con- sultations that were proposed inthe Participation Action Plan (PAP) com- pleted in May 2001. The consultations attracted over 8,400 participants PARTICIPATION with fairly broad representation from each of the 10 regions of Guyana. They enabled communities to share ideas on the nature, causes and AND effects of poverty and to make joint proposals for reducing it. Owing to the breadth and depth of issues raised and openness of dis- cussions and recommendations, the consultations yielded a better ap- POVERTY preciation of the perspectives of stakeholders. They also imbued stake- N z holdersnT X U with insights into their own role in bringing about change intheir ED u CTI n lives, as well as inmonitoring development activities in their communi- ties.
The success of the participation process is attributable to (i) a carefully designed organisational and institutional framework; (ii) widespread participation by members of Guyanese civil society; (iii) careful prepara- ton and training conducted before the consultations; and (iv)continu- ous adjustment during implementation of the plan in response to reali- ties on the ground. Important lessons were leamed that provide a guide for future consultations. A. Organisational and Institutional Framework
The strategy for public participation was predicated on encouraging broad engagement, involving key stakeholders in the consultation pro- cess, and providing flexibility to civil society to drive the process. This strategy led to the creation and/or strengthening of four units to imple- ment or monitor the participation process. These four units were the (i) Donor Coordination Unit (DCU); (ii) PRS Steering Committee; (iii) PRS Secretariat (PRSS); and (iv)Resource Teams.
1. The Donor Coordination Unit Govemment and donor relations are cordial. Nonetheless, the Govem- ment is committed to strengthening this relationship. Towards this end, a high-level committee consisting of representatives of donor agencies,
13 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTiON STATEGY PAPER mission heads, and line ministers was established. Specifically, the DCU was charged with the following: (i) estab- lishment of Thematic Groups, involving donors and line ministries to review, plan and develop project pipelines so as to minimise duplication of donor programs; (ii) review of the Participation Action Plan (PAP) and provision of continu- ous advice for its successful implementation; and (iii) strengthening of the capacity of line ministries to formulate policy anid improve their data collection capabilities. In recognition of these functions, the donor community provided resources to implement the PAR In addition, there is ongoing engagement to operationalise the Themabic Groups.
2. PRS Steering Commiffee The Govemment-established a PRS- Steering Committee comprising two representatives from Govemment and ten members of civil society drawn from the trade union movement, non-govemmental organizatons (NGOs), Amerindian groups, religious organisations, youth, women and the private sector. The Steering Committee provided advocacy for the PRS partcipation process. Its members participated in the public awareness program for the consultabon pro- cess. They provided leadership to the consultation strategy by establishing the nature of, and agenda for, consulta- tons, and identfied the types of consultation activities, their locations and venues, and the schedule. They also monitored implementation of the consultation schedule, making recommendations for fine-tuning the process, as appropriate, in light of lessons leamed. They assisted in the analysis of reports emanating from the consultations, identifying areas where coverage of the issues was deemed inadequate as a meaningful input to the drafting of the PRSP. In some cases, members of the Steering Committee also served as resource persons to the consultation process.
3. Poverty Reduction Strategy Secretariatand Participation Action Plan The Govemment established a Poverty Reducton Strategy Secretariat (PRSS) to manage the participation process. The PRSS was tasked with developing and implementing the PAP with the actve support of civil society.
In December 2000, the Executive Implementation Unit (EIU) at the Office of the President convened a workshop involving 25 representatives of civil society to design the PAR The workshop was designed to broaden ownership of the process, foster ongoing dialogue and collaboration between Govemment and civil society, and encourage stake- holder participation. The participants defined consultation as a mult-layered, multi-directional process which would lead to a common understanding of issues and a community-based set of solubons. They also identified stakeholder groups and constituents whose participation in the consultation process was deemed critical.
Furthermore, the participants identified the constraints to consultation in Guyana, highlighting the need to ensure that persons consulted represented a diversity of Guyanese across gender, race/ethnicity, culture, age, educabon, occu- pation and class. They also noted that the problem of functional literacy, the experience with consultation processes to date, the timing of the PRSP process, and the degree to which people saw the process as being politically driven could pose significant challenges for implementation of a participation plan.
In summary, the preparatory workshop gave directons on social, political and physical conditions for creating an enabling environment for the PRSP consultatior process. It also outlined strategies for engaging a wide cross-section of the populace and managing the process. It concluded its deliberabons by emphasising that following the consul- tabons in all regions, attenton had to be paid to the involvement of community members in the monitoring and evaluabon of initiabves arising out of the PRSP.
Following these workshops, the PRSS was established within the EIU to develop and implement the PAP, using the proposals of the preparatory workshop as inputs. The PAP detailed the organisational framework, operational mecha- nisms and resource requirements for effecting broad-based consultation. It also outlined the types of consultations: community, target group, regional and national; and how facilitators, rapporteurs and resource persons would be selected and trained. Resource materials were tested, a training program was designed, materials were developed for that program, and a communications strategy and feedback mechanism were defined. Finally, the PAP included
14 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCT1ON STRATEGY PAPER a calendar of events, and a budget for resources necessary to complete the PAP was attached to the plan.
The PAP went through a process of intense discussions, both among the donors and civil society. Several changes were made to improve its scope and depth and Govemment, sections of civil society and the donor community adopted the final plan. Following this, donors committed resources towards its implementation.
To begin the public consultation process, the PRSS prepared information briefs including a summary of key issues and proposed solutions, organised orientation sessions for key stakeholders, and conducted training sessions for the regional Resource Teams. The PRSS also established 8 regional Resource Teams to undertake community consul- tations, and persons were trained to carry out consultations in the other two regions. In addition, the PRSS trained Resource Teams for target groups such as religious groups, Amerindians, youth, women and a bauxite union, and distributed relevant materials to communities, target groups, post offices, libraries, and health centres.
4. The Resource Teams Following a 2-day training session in Georgetown, Resource Teams were assembled for Regions 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 10. Each team comprised facilitators, rapporteurs, resource persons and Regional Consultation Supervisors (RCS). Specific terms of reference were developed for each group of team members. The Regional Consultation Supervi- sors were very instrumental in the success of the consultations because they mobilised communities and liaised routinely with the PRSS. The facilitators, rapporteurs and resource persons successfully set the tone for full and open discussions, encouraging maximum participation in each session.
The establishment of the Resource Teams allowed the PRSS to conduct consultations simultaneously throughout the country and assured consistency in the consultabons and completion of questionnaires. One novelty was that in Region 9, the Touchaus or Amerindian village captains offered to carry out their own consultations. The rationale was that they better understood the culture, the people, the topography and language. The PRSS agreed to train the Touchaus and sent a team to the region. In Regions 1 and 8 (also interior locations), teams from Georgetown conducted the consultations. B. PRSP Consultations
To assure a participation process that would lead to common understanding of the issues and the means of address- ing them, the PAP adopted the proposal that the process of consultation should be multi-layered and multi-directonal, with four types of consultation which together, would enable informed decisions and ownership of the process and outcomes through dialogue and iterative engagement of both organised groups and unorganised constituents. The first type, the community consultation, was organised by the PRSS with the help of community members and Re- source Teams. The second type, target groups, involved organised groups building on existing networks to bring together their constituents to discuss the l-PRSP. Regional workshops enabled members of the representative assemblies, representatives of major groups, Govemment representatives and the general public to review the findings of the community and target group consultations. Finally, a National Review Conference was held to bring representatives of target groups, regions and communities together. Table 3.1 presents a summary of community, target group and regional consultabons.
1. Community Consultations On the advice of officials of the Regional Administration and various community representatives, the PRSS proposed conducting 72 consultations in the 10 Regions during the months of July pnd August. It intended that these consulta- tions would enable residents of defined catchment areas to participate in the workshops, not only leaming about Govemment's proposals for reducing poverty but making their own proposals on what they considered priority prob- lems and possible solutions to those problems. At these consultations, participants identified problems and solutions
15 THE GUYA POVERTY REDUCTON STRATEGY PAPER which they felt should be the concem of the Central Govemment and/or the Regional Administration, as well as those which could be addressed at the community and/or individual level.
As the plan for consulting the wider population of Guyana was implemented, the Resource Teams, community members and members of target groups requested that more consultations be held as a means of gaining greater participaton. The PRSS accorimodated these requests as far as possible. In the end, 108 community consultations were held.
2. Target Group Consultations Target groups were invited to discuss the l-PRSP and the related issues during their regular meetings or specially organised meetings. These groups were encouraged to work both at the individual target group level and through networks to which they belonged. They were also requested to encourage their constituents to participate in the community consultations, particularly if they were unable to participate in a target group consultation.
Among the target groups, religious organisations fully embraced the consultation process. Of the 98 target group sessions, a total of 84 were held by religious organisations. Other target groups which conducted consultations included youth groups, the Guyana Volunteer Consultancy, a farmers' group, groups of persons with disabilities, sugar estates and a bauxite company. One Govemment agency, the Women's Affairs Bureau, met with its constituents, carried out an in-depth review of the I-PRSP and shared their perspectves. The consultations held by target groups allowed for sharing of ideas across region, in several cases. This helped to identify some issues which were common to target group members, as well as issues that were specific to their geographic locations.
3. Regional Consultations The community and target group consultations generated far-reaching recommendations that would markedly assist in poverty reduction. Ten summary reports, one for each region, and comprising the results of community and target group consultations, were prepared and reviewed with the Resource Teams. At the end of the community and target group consultations, 10 Regional Consultations were held to priortise national issues on poverty reduction.
4. National Review Conference Table 3.1: Consultations Held Countrywide
To deepen the consultation , COSWBct9 'p TW; -ci TdfT1 process and provide feed- .1' .nG iip GoyfihReoonatil Ak back to the regions and com- 1 3 3 Noe 3 199 28 227 munifies on the final PRSP, 2 4 12 6Muslim 7 19 516 176 692 each region selected 5 mem- Unbn bers to represent it at the Na- 3 8 17 1Hindu 9 MuLim tional Review Conference 2Estates (NRC) held on October 29, 4 14 20 14Cfhusb 41 61 219 166 2,385 2001. The purpose of the ioMuslim NRC was to (i) review with re- 1Fgm gional representatives the cri- iTrvcnee teria for selection of issues 8 16 2 D2iabld and recommendations; (ii) 6 13 16 4Muslim 2 demonstrate that regional pri- 10Hndu orities have been taken into 7 4 1 UMnions 1 2 47 9 137 5 1 1 61 consideration in the final 98 3 11 II 65 126 PRSP; and (iii) review the includ. 58 - 58 mechanisms for implemen- 10 4 12 1 Unmine 1 13 516 241 757 tation, monitoring and evalu- oh 72n_ 1a 9 B207 s 6,893 1,!5
iR THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCflON SThATEGY PAPER ation. This step inthe consultation process was a key ingredient indeveloping consensus, transparency and credibil- ity for future consultations.
5. Participation and the Media- During the lead-up to the regional consultations, the RCSs organised, with the support of the PRSS, call-in programs on local television stations, The purpose of these programs was to bolster interest and encourage larger attendance and more informed participation at regional consultations. In addition, the Resource Team members participated in programs aired on national television. After the regional consultations, the PRSS, on the advice of the Steering Committee, organised a feedback program to report on the results of the consultations. The RCSs and members of the Steering Committee and PRSS organised television and radio programs through which regional constituents were informed of the outcome of the consultations. Through television call-in programs, members of the public interacted with the panel to leam more about the Poverty Reduction Strategy. These programs generated a positive response from viewers and were therefore repeated inthe interval before the NRC. C. Issues Arising From Consultations
The issues and recommendations in this shetion arissuessl freommendathpuic onsul-invethhas Box 3.1: Perceptions of Poverty inGuyana section anse solely from the public consul- Poverty has different faces. Ithas an economic face, a social face and a tations. The Govemment does not neces- psychological face. Itravages the lives of people, even stripping them of their sadly agree with all of the analysis of the dignity. It makes people feel underprvileged and leads to feelings such as issues and/or recommendations made. frustraton, helplessness and despair. Yet, not all persons who are poor have no Needless to say, the public consultations vision of abetter life. Infact, many know what isneeded to help them change the tenor of their lives. What they would like to have is asay inthe policies and generated intense discussions and cov- programs designed to reduce poverty. ered several areas. These discussions did Poverty's economic face not only address issues inthe l-PRSP; they * Joblessness also offered broader and more inclusive * Under-employment def.nitionsof poverty (see Box 3.1) and * Lack of finances to satisfy the family's basic needs definitions of poverty (see Box 3.1) and Inabilitytoaccessloansforself-employmentoriobcreationthrough raised the risks of political uncertainties, lack of collateral skepticism about the intent of the process, * Child labour and the need for tangible outcomes in the Poverty's social face shortest period of time. By all accounts, the * High level of illiteracy process was taken seriously and the qual- Ignorant an d/or violent behaviour * High level of teenage pregnancy and single parenthood ity and volume of information that emerged * Highlevel of substance abuse (drugs and alcohol) demonstrate this. The results of the con- * Large number of idle men and women sultations could be broadly grouped infive Poverty's psychological face sectors, as follows: (i) limited economic op- * Low self-esteem portunities; (ii)poor govemance; (iii) unmet * Lack of knowledge * Lack of motivation to access vital informaton expectabions in education; (iv)inadequate * Feeling of hopelessness delivery of health, water and sanitation ser- * Dependency vices; and (v) underdevelopment of the But what is poverty? housing sector. Poverty is * Only eating apiece of cake and having asoft drink on Chrstrnas Day * Parents standing inline to collect used dothing and food hand-outs 1. Limited Economic * Fathers/husbands leaving families for long periods while working out Opporbinides of the community The major underlying issue within the eco- * People buying substandard, expired goods because they are cheap * Being unable to send children to school nomic sector was the need to create more * Overcrowding insmall, dilapidated structures jobs. Among the key constraints identified * Frequent illness because of poor diet were low commodity prices, inaccessible * Sin, punishment, suffering, hardship
17 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCT1ON SATEGY PAPER markets, narrowness of the economic base, limited access to credit, and the use of labour from other communities to do contract work. The focus was therefore on the following areas: (i) low levels of manufacturing and value-added; (ii) constraints to agricultural production.and productivity; (iii) underdevelopment of eco-tourism; and (iv) inequity in the tax system.
a) Low levels of manufacturinc and value-added Notwithstanding the abundant resources and opportunities for growth in the manufacturing sector, the general con- sensus was that there is an absence or inadequacy of processing facilities attributed to the difficult business anc political environment and the high cost of capital. This contributes to high levels of waste and spoilage of agricultural produce and low levels of job creation.
In addition, there is an absence of a legal/regulatory framework to support cottage industries and small businesses, many of which lack access to credit. Inaccessible markets, both local and foreign, for Guyanese products accrue from poor standards of product quality and packaging, dumping of foreign products, and inability of exporters to maintain and increase their share of foreign markets. As a result, there is no job security and often, producers of inputs, especially farmers, are paid uneconomic prices.
Unreliable power supply, the high cost of energy, and the absence of a deep-water harbour contribute to the high cost of producton and the uncompetitiveness of Guyanese products in regional and intemational markets.
b) Constraints to aaricultural production and productivity The key issues discussed in the agriculture sector related to delays in granUing of land titles, poor quality of extension services, high cost and misuse of pesticides, poor maintenance of drainage and irrigation systems, poor farm-to- market roads and high cost of capital equipment.
Long delays in granting land titles are responsible for difficulties in using land as collateral for loans. In addition, absentee landlords occupy large tracts of land while small farmers find it difficult to acquire and/or expand their current land holdings.
Farmers are in need of expert advice and support if they are to achieve higher yields and adopt appropriate agricul- tural practices. The number of extension officers in the system is inadequate, and in many instances, officers pay irregular visits to farms. In part, this is due to unavailability of transportation and accommodation. As a result, there is lower production and productivity, improper management practices for both crops and livestock and late identification of pest and disease outbreaks. In particular, acoushi ants pose a major problem for farmers, especially those in the hinterland areas. This leads to loss of income and increased poverty.
The poor state of the D&l systems contributes to severe flooding throughout the agriculture belt, resulting in destruc- tion of many farms and livestock. These problems arise from poor management, low levels of maintenance, and sea defence breaches.
The absence of demarcation between crop and livestock pastures is found to be a key impediment to the coexistence of crop and livestock farmers. The destruction of rice and vegetable fields by roaming herds of cattle leads to loss of income by farmers.
The lack of equipment and machinery, for both farmers a6d loggers, is identified as another constraint to pnvatd sector development. Many farmers and loggers, especially in Amerindian areas, have no collateral and cannot access loans. Some borrow at high interest rates to punrase equipment and machinery, but due to their small acreages and/or lack of concessions, may be unable to se ice their loans, often leading them to bankruptcy or loss of property.
18 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
The state of farm-to-market roads was described as inadequate. In several instances, there is poor maintenance of roads and bridges. Although several of these roads may have been repaired recently, due to substandard constructon work, overloading of vehicles and poor supervision of road use, these roads are impassable in the rainy season. Further, it is costly to transport produce from the hinterland areas to Georgetown or to extemal markets, and in many areas, access is simply non-existent. As a result, many farmers lose substantial income in the process, especially during the rainy season.
c) Underdevelopment of eco-tourism Eco-tourism holds great potential for job creation and economic expansion in Guyana. However, the consensus from the consultabon is that the sub-sector (i) is largely unorganised; (ii) faces limited intemational marketing; (iii) faces high cost of local travel; and (iv)is beset by an absence of skills within the industry.
d) Inequity in the tax system Taxation policy was described as unfair. In particular, (i) a large porton of taxes from big business goes uncollected; (ii) property owners scarcely pay taxes; and (iii) tax rates are too high.
2. Poor Govemance Five main issues were identfiied as indicative of poor govemance. These are the (i) poor performance of the RDCs and NDCs; (ii) insecurity and inadequate access to justice; (iii) corrupton and lack of accountability; (iv) discrimina- tion; and (v) insufficient attention to decentralisation.
a) Poor Derformance of Regional Development Councils and Neighborhood Democratc Councils The poor performance of RDCs and NDCs raised considerable concem. Several factors contribute to this state of affairs including (i) lack of consultation; (ii) poor communicabon; (iii) long delays in responding to problems; and (iv) unfulfilled expectabons. Participants also mentioned the insensitivity of NDC officials to the plight of their communi- bes; irregular and insufficient visits of Govemment officials to rural communites; and the long delay in and/or absence of local govemment elections. Further, concems were expressed about inadequate supervision of programs; the non- involvement of the community in planning; poor leadership; slow intervention of Central Govemment in dealing with NDC issues; and interference by various political parties in community development projects.
b) Insecurty and inadequate access to iustice Personal and property security was also identified as an issue of concem. Institutonal and political bureaucracy influences recourse to the law. It is affected by the recruitment policy and retention rate of police ranks; the absence of police outposts or stations in many communities; non-enforcement of existng laws to deal effectively with child abuse and domestic violence as well as limited support mechanisms to address these; slow justice administration, especially for the poor, and interference in the administration of justice.
There is frustration at the high level of crime and the inability of the security forces to deal adequately with criminals. There is a feeling that the legal system, with a backlog of cases, is biased against the poor, women, and children, who often cannot afford its high legal costs.
c) Corruption and lack of accountability Participants identified corruption and the lack of accountability as problems. Manifestations of these were identified as irregular practces at the level of RDCs and NDCs and improper award of contracts; lack of transparency and accountability by public officials; inequitable distribution of house lots; and overspending and poor implementation of capital works.
19 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
d) Discrimination There is a percepton that the various political parties that control RDCs and NDCs practise discrimination along racial and political lines. These practices are with respect to land acquisiton; jobs and benefits from development projects; and access to credit. There is also a perception of neglect of certain communities based on political affiliations.
e) Insufficient attention to decentralisation Participants also expressed concems about the degree of central control and administration of programs and busi- nesses in Georgetown, leading to discontent about undue centralisabon. Among the services which are centralised are (i) issuance of birth and death certificates; (ii)issuance of passports; (iii) issuance of land tites; (iv)processing and clearance of goods from customs; and (v)courier and other shipping services.
3. UnmetExpectations in Education The public consultations on education were insightful and generated heated discussion. Poor conditions of service were cited frequently and were attributed to low wages, lack of accommodation for teachers especially in hinterland and some coastal communities, and the absence of non-pecuniary incentives to retain trained teachers. Inaddition, teachers perform menial jobs such as cleaning of sanitary facilities and classrooms. As a result, there is high migration of trained teachers to the Caribbean and Africa. Also due to poor conditions of service, many schools are without social workers and counselors. There is therefore ahigh drop-out rate, especially at the primary and second- ary school levels, drug abuse among students, teenage pregnancy, suicide among youth, and indiscipline.
Overcrowding of schools was also seen as significant and results mainly from the lack of schools inseveral commu- nites. This also forces children to travel long distances to schools. The lack of other teaching facilities, such as Science and Information Technology (IT)laboratories, contributes to low performance by students, particularly in rural communities. In other cases, there is little or no access to secondary education and outreach programs are limited in scope.
In addition, many families'find it difficult to meet the cost of transportation, examination fees, other educational requirements, and provision of meals for their children. For example, the high cost of examinations, textbooks and other educational materials contributes to the high drop-out rates experienced in many communities. Many students end up providing assistance to their families outside of the classrooms. As a consequence, illiteracy rates seem high, especially in rural and hinterland communities.
Furthermore, many schools lack libraries while textbooks, school supplies, science equipment, and sports equip- ment are in perpetual shortage. Only a minority of schools have access to computers, and many students leave the school system without ever knowing how to tum on acomputer. Despite sacrifices made by parents and students, the education system does not train students for jobs nor does it provide adequate altematives for students who are less academically inclined.
4. Inadequate Delivery of Health, Waterand Sanitatfon Services The consensus was that the poor working habits of health care personnel affect the quality of health care delivery. Reference was made to discrimination at hospitals, the hostile behaviour of some Medex, absence of medical personnel at health centres, especially during the night, and poor physical facilities. In addition, the lack of basic equipment and medical supplies in the health centres, poor saniation at health facilities, and a low level of mainte- nance of health installations result in many communities being under-served. Specifically, inadequate supplies of drugs, discrimination in the distribution of medical supplies, poor storage of medical supplies, and marketing and/or prescription of expired drugs at Govemment facilities contribute to the seeking of altemative sources of care. The combinabion of these factors often leads patients to travel long distances to seek medical care or pay exorbitant fees
20 THE GUYAA POVERTY REDUCnlON STRATEGY PAPER to private practitioners who, in several cases, lack appropriate expertise.
Poor conditions of service also result in the migrabon and consequent shortages of medical personnel. This poses tremendous risks to patients and undermines Govemment investments in the health sector. Further, there are periodic outbreaks of infectious and other diseases, malnutrition, high levels of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), includ- ing HIVIAIDS, high levels of teenage pregnancy, drug abuse, especially among the youth, and unhealthy lifestyles.
With respect to the water sector, the three key issues identified were poor maintenance of water facilites; the poor quality of treated water; and insufficient access to potable water. The poor maintenance of water facilities results from poor contract work, low budgetary allocabons, and inefficiencies in the operation of GUYWA. The poor quality of water is the result of low maintenance of drainage facilifies, flooding, frequent damage to water mains, blocked drains, faulty pumps and lack of chemicals to treat raw water. In addition, many communities lack access to potable water and, in cases where there is access, supply is infrequent because of insufficient water pressure.
With respect to sanitation, the issues identified were inadequate dumpsites; absence of a nabonal policy on garbage disposal; an insanitary environment; and poor maintenance of drains. Underlying these issues was recognition that latrines and burial sites are sometmes too close to rivers, there is little or no desiltng of clogged drains, and defogging exercises do not take place on a regular basis.
5. Underdevelopmentof the Housing Sector With respect to housing, the key issues discussed included inadequate infrastructure. The absence of telephone lines in many housing schemes due to slow expansion of the development program of the local telephone company was raised. In cases where telephone lines are present, those living in poverty were discriminated against. Several communities have poor access roads and lack electicity and water.
Many claims were made about discriminatory practices in house lot disbtibution. The lack of transparency in the distribution system and the application of different standards to different people in the acquisition of housing lots warrant attention. In particular, housing lots are too expensive, making it difficult for the poor to own their own homes. In addition, existing lot sizes are too small, making it difficult for the poor to undertake kitchen gardens to supplement their incomes. There is also a lack of recreational facilities for children in developing housing schemes. In several instances, provision is not made for the prompt development of social infrastructure in these schemes.
The consultations provided a number of recommendations to address many of the above issues. These recommen- dations appear in Table 3.2.
21 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTiON STRATEGY PAPER
Table 3.2: Recommendations Identified During Consultations
Manufacturing and Value-added * Develop export and industrial processing zones * Restructure local industries to atract foreign capital U) ! * Provide technical assistance to local industries to improve management, quality standards, L) I * and packaging '" ffi * Develop a deep-water harbour * - * Develop legislation to support development of more cottage industries and small businesses = Agricultural Production and Productivity * Accelerate processing of land titles o * Improve extension services, providing adequate transportation for extension workers * Rehabilitate and maintain fam-to-market roads * Establish and enforce road use standards, especially inagricuitural and mining areas oC * Review the D&l systems before allocabon of addifional resources * 'Develop policy on demarcabton of crop/livestock farming C.) * Grant incentves for equipment and machinery depots throughout the country for agriculture E and logging. o Tourism * Increase Govemment involvement inpromoton of tourism o * Create a stable political and business-friendly environment s* Conduct sustained training of personnel within the sector LlJ Tax Reforms * Broaden the tax base * Reduce tax rates * Ensure equity inthe tax system Local Govemment * Increase community involvement inthe management of community affairs * Reform local govemment administration, re-establish village councils, and grant autonomy to communites to manage their affairs * Establish village and/or community project monitoring units * Ensure an open and transparent flow of informaton at the community level * Reform the procurement system and involve comniunifies incontract awards * Hold local govemment elecbons at which leaders are direcly chosen from their communities on a non-parbsan basis 42) Judicial Reform * Reform the Guyana Police Force co * Reform the legal and judicial systems a * Enforce laws dealing with child labour, child abuse and domestic violence 1.. * Strengthen community policing > Accountability o * Hold local govemment elections * Reform the procurement system * Enforce asset declaration by elected officials V * Publish criteria for the distribution of house lots O * Reduce the price of house lots O * Involve communifies inthe monitoring of community projects ( m* Develop mechanisms to withhold payment to contractors for inferior %works Discrimnation * Confinue, deepen and broaden dialogue beteen the two main political parties * Continue public awareness and educational prograrms on nafional unity by civil sodety and political parbies * Pass and enforce legislabon to deal with discriminatory practices, induding discriminabon against the disabled Decentralization * Decentralise essental services such as the issuance of birth and death certificates, * Decentralise passports and land bties * Decentralise customs clearance, courier and other shipping services to the regions
22 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Table 3.2: Recommendations Identified During Consultations (cont'd)
* Improve conditons of service for teachers, including higher wages, provision of non-pecuniary incentives such as house lots and duty free vehicles * Recruit social workers and provide similar conditions of service to assist inreducing dropout rates * Reintroduce religious studies, code of conduct for teachers and students, dress code * Construct and/or extend existing schools to address overcrowding * Develop a comprehensive program of school maintenance o Review and enforce school placement policy to ensure that children do not travel long distances * Provide dormitories for Amerindian students living away from home * Develop a policy for providing targeted subsidies to children from poor families to cover transportation, examination fees, and other costs related to educabon Re-establish school feeding program to include the provision of hot lunches for students LJ * Develop a national certification program of technical and vocational education, including skills training and basic education for school dropouts and out-of-school youth Develop a national register of skilled and semi-skilled persons by community and region for use by contractors and other types of employers * Supply required textbooks, laboratory equipment and other essential leaming matefials to students Apply acost recovery fee for textbooks issued to students, with students paying the full economic cost for mutlated or lost books Provide vouchers for textbooks to children from poor families Health * Improve training and conditions of service of medical personnel, including non-pecuniary incentives .2 * Develop acomprehensive maintenance program of physical facilities * Increase the allocation for drugs and medical supplies _ a Improve the distribution and storage of medical supplies, especially inrural and hinterland * communities * Expand public education and sensitisation programs on preventable diseases co) a Recnuit and retain social workers to provide counseling * Enforce the law on expired drugs and drug abuse O Water 015 *ater Drill wells incommunities that lack access to potable water 0 * Develop national rehabilitabon and maintenance plan * Increase the budgetary allocabon to procure chemicals, pumps and other essenial parts necessaryto improvewaterinfrastructure * Expand public awareness programs on home treatment of potable water and water SE conservaton * Sanitaton * Developanationalpolicyongarbagedisposal 0 j ' Recruitandretainenvironmentalofficers * Enforcelawsonenvironmentalsafety * Encouragecommunibestotaketheleadership rolein improving theirsanitaryconditions * Increase resources to maintain drains, institute regular defogging and minimise other environmental hazards * Develop physical infrastructure such as telephones, water, access roads, electricity and recreatonal facilities in new housing areas * Indude the provision of schools, post offices, police outposts/stations and other essential services Inhousing development planning O Increase size and reduce price of house lots Regularise squatter settlements D. Regional Consultations and Prioritisation The issues and solubons that emerged from the community and target group consultations are beyond Guyana's financial and human resource capacities. Therefore, priorities have to be set. However, to build credibility and institutionalise the process of consultation, Government chose to further consult the public to agree on regional issues and priorities, using community and target group summary reports. Specifically, the regional consultations were designed to review the community and target group consultations by region and prioritise issues and recom- mendabons. Regional consultabons were conducted in all the regions.
23 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATiGY PAPER
Table 3.3 provides a summary of priority solutions proposed by the regions. E. Integrating Recommendations from Public Consultations into the PRSP
The l-PRSP was revised to in- Table 3.3: Priorities Arising from the Regional Consultations clude the analyses from the pub- Priorities lic consultations. Based on the Maintain astable macroeconomic framework abusiness-friendly environment priorities identified,priorities sectoralsetoralientified, allo-allo-Create Support small businesses, cottage industnes and eco-tourism cations were also revised. The , Explore and exploit natural resources consultations further revealed E Develop IT-relatedexports several issues that are adminis- o B Rehabilitate and maintain farm-to-market roads and drainage and irrigation schemes 2 Construct adeep-water harbour trative and/or personal in nature , . Expand rural electrification and which provided important Broaden the tax base lessons to the Govemment (see EsReducetax rates Box 3.2); although the resolution - . e lhe tax system ofthese mayissues not require Reform local govemment administration of these issues may not require C> * Strengthen, deepen and broaden the dialogue between the two main political parties financial resources, resolving Improve public accountability them would boost confidence in Reoa)stc dinsrto public aouldmistrationfadidenvoe in Strengthen regulations and enforce laws on discriminatory practices public administration and involve , * Promote and enhance fundamental human rights communities in the monitoring of Reduce high levels of illiteracy including adult illiteracy their programs. Arising from the Reduce school drop-out rates issues raised and solutions pro- C Improve physical facilities and reduce overcrowding posed, and the fact that many of o * ReduceIntroduce high curricula transportafion reforms and other education-related costs these solutions do not require - * Train and retain qualified teachers, social workers and ancillary personnel substantial resources, detailed u, Improve access to quality education work programs are being devel- Provide targeted support to the poor opedw itholinerministries,kRDCs, Improve access to quality health services oped with line ministries, RDCs, Increasedrugs and medical supplies and improve storagefacilities for drugs and local govemment bodies. In ' and medical suppies addition, mechanisms are being Train, recrur and retain qualified health personnel developed for communities to Reduce the incidence and prevalence of malnutrition deelopedivle nteipe Increase public education inbasic health practices become involved in the imple- : * Improve access to potable water mentation of their programs, c 9 Rehabilitateandmaintainwaterinfrastructure pending legislative reforms in lo- Improve quality of water and management of water resources cal government administration. . ~ Maintain drains and more regulardefogging c Improve solid waste management MReduce bureaucratic inetia in the distribution of house lots Most of the recommendations m * Set national standards and improve transparency inthe allocation of land made concemed programmatic in Develop infrastructure inhousing schemes changes. Small business and O -- Regularisesquattersettlements * Provgde affordablehousn fiaance cottage industies received pro- posals for more support in terms of regulabons and credit availability. Infommation and communications technology was added to the agenda. More attenbon to agricultural extension services and machinery to support agriculture was suggested, as well as assis- tance to local industries to attract more foreign capital. In education, a change in emphasis to provide more teachers and support to parents was also high on the list. More medical facilities and personnel in under-served areas and more attention to HIV/AIDS were also recommended, as were reforms in housing to make land lots more easily available and more affordable. In addition, the special intervention strategies (see Chapter 4) were changed to reflect development plans initiated in the regions during the consultations.
24 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Box 3.2: Lessons Learned from Consultation Process Several important lessons were leamed about the role of public consultations, how communities should be selected, how much planning isnecessary, and what should be included in a public relatons strategy. Level of community expectations increased because of public consultations and dialogues Consideration of strategies for poverty reduction raises people's expectations since the ttle, poverty reduction, connotes immediate actons or instant gratification". Itis clear from the experience of the community consultations that people living inpoverty want change, are prepared to work for change and expect change to occur bringing with it immediate relief. This isso despite efforts to temper expectations. This puts enormous pressure on Government's ability to deliver services that require time, planning and resources. In addition, the macroeconomic framework of the IFIs remains the same, despite the increased resources required to effectively reduce poverty. Further, the term poverty reduction adversely affects national pride as it islinked with bankruptcy and mismanagement at the local and intemational levels. Italso affects personal dignity, leading to asense of hopelessness and despair. This isunnecessary, because it ispossible to achieve the very objectives embodied in the PRSP guidelines, both incontent and substance, using the concept of a wealth creation strategy, and to do so without creating discord and high expectations. Nations and people know that it takes time and sacrifice to create wealth. They recognize that wealth creation requires initiative, imagination and personal drive. Community selection was very important and using a variety of approaches enabled more communities to be involved Consultations could only be effected in a sample of communities. To increase the opportunity of wider geographic coverage, communities were grouped into catchmentareas. This sampling, of necessity, resulted insome communities not being the locus of the meetngs. Insome of these instances, members of communities opted not to partcipate because consultations did not take place intheir physical site. Inothers, historic and ongoing community conflict erupted during the sessions. Inyet others, community members felt discriminated against since their community was not selected as the location or could not be included at all. Itis important, therefore, to utilize mechanisms that provide for community involvement which may not include a face-to-face process. People need to be reassured that their voices are valuable and their ideas may be shared through different means. Inthe case of Guyana, people did have additional opportunities to express their views on television call-in programs. Special efforts were made to indude partcipants inthe regional consultabon who were not targeted inthe community and target group consultations. Resource persons and insome instances, members of the Steering Committee, engaged intelevision and radio programs to report the priorites selected by their regions. This was not originally planned but it proved to be extremely useful as it allowed the regions to have feedback on their regional priorities. Additionally, people were informed that this was just the beginning of the process and that other opportunities were likely to be afforded them infuture consultabons. Highly participatory planning requires flexibility in implementation Involvementof civil society and thedonorcommunity isessential for reducing conflictand providing the basisforsuccessof the consultaton process. InGuyana, the PAP involved key stakeholders from the beginning, and distributed background documents and provided face-to-face orientation sessions to awide group of people. Consultation reports were made available throughout the process to stakeholders and donors and they were also posted on the PRSP website. Continuous follow-up was made with identified target groups to solicit their participation. Training was provided to equip their personnel to consult their constituents and financial, material and human resources were put at their disposal. The degree of hands- on involvement was high; fortunately, this yielded good results inthe main. In some instances, regardless of the efforts made, the partisan interests of the leaders of some stakeholder groups denied their consbtuents the opportunity to present their perspectives en bloc. Equally important is understanding key stakeholders and providing them the opportunity to make their own decisions on the consultaton process. As mentoned inthe body of the report, a case inpoint was that inRegion 9,the Touchaus (Amerindian village chiefs) made a convincing case for carrying out their own consultations. The PRSS provided all the logistical and other support needed. Inthe end, the Touchaus carried out more consultatons than was planned by the PRSS and submitted acomprehensive report on their requirements. Itis important to build on this progress infuture consultations. Selection and training of resource persons is key Sometmes, participants at public consultations are very emotive. They may not have full understanding of Government programs and procedures and may lack adequate knowledge of budget constraints facing Govemment. Most Umes, participants present their personal grievances. To minimise this requires resource persons and especially, facilitators, who have athorough understanding of Govemment programs and constraints and can effectively steer consultabons to address core policy issues and programs. A public relations strategy is critical for community consultations A public relations strategy is critcal to the consultation process. Itshould serve to sensitze the potental paricipants to the process, motivate them to participate init, and disseminate its outcomes, helping to transform aculture of silence and inacton with respect to govemance and decision-making into one of citzen participation and civic responsibility. With respect to the PRSP consultabon process inGuyana, the centralized public relations efforts fell short of expectabons. Itfailed to recognize the value of locally relevant strategies. What worked well was the use of more indigenous and well-tried strategies such as the mobile public address system, the bell crier and house-to-house distributon of materials and other information.
25 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATKGY PAPER
Over the past decade, Guyana implemented far-reaching policy and structural reforms that saw a steep reduction in its poverty levels. Real income increased 70 percent and with it, the general welfare of the populabon improved. Average household consumption, in real terms, 4fi went up by 12 percent per year. Expenditure of the boatom 20 percent of the population rose even faster. Access to educarfon, health and water also showed marked improvement, particularly in Amerindian settle- ments where health centres and wells have been constructed.
In spite of these developments, poverty levels are still high. The recent public consultabons confirmed many of the causes that continue to per- petuate poverty and provided recommendations to deal with the prob- lems. Increasingly, the participants at consultabons placed priority atten- tbon on growth through expanded economic opportunities and improved NATIONAL govemance. The data in Guyana also show that economic growth is a necessary POVERTYw*r Iconditon for reducing poverty. During the past 7 years, GDP increased cumulatvely by about 37 percent while extreme poverty declined by 34 percent. This implies an elastcity of 0.7. Although this measure may be STRATEGY crude, itsuggests two important things. First, there is a strong posibve correlaton between GDP growth and poverty reduction. Second, reduc- ing extreme poverty by half will take less than 10 years with the imple- mentation of the sound economic and social policies discussed in the following sections. A. Main Objectives of the Poverty Reduction Strategy
Past experience and the progress made thus far therefore suggest three interlocking approaches to poverty reduction. First, the restoration of growth rates to pre-1997 levels; second, improvements in social ser- vices; and third, the expansion and strengthening of social safety nets. Towards this end, the main goals' of Guyana's poverty reduction strategy will focus on: (i) sustained economic expansion within the context of a deepening participatory democracy; (ii) access to social services in- cluding education, health, water and housing; and (iii) strengthening, and where necessary, expansion of social safety nets. To achieve these goals, Guyana has adopted a Poverty Reduction Strategy that rests on seven pillars: * broad-based, jobs-generating economic growth; * environmental protection; * stronger institutions and better govemance;
1 The Intemational Development Goals to the year 2015 indude reducing the incidence of extreme poverty by halt, reducing by Iwo-thirds the mortality rates for infants and children under five; eliminatng gender disparity in education (2005); and implemenfing in all countries, by the year 2005, natonal strategies to reverse trends in loss of environmental resource by 2015.
26 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
* investment in human capital, with emphasis on basic education and primary health; * investment in physical capital, with emphasis on better and broader provision of safe water and sanitation services, farm-to-market roads, drainage and irrigation systems, and housing; * improved safety nets; and * special intervention programs to address regional pockets of poverty.
Clearly, these pillars are mutually reinforcing. The pursuit of sustained economic growth, in part, depends on an enabling business environment, good govemance, facilitating infrastructure, and a trained labour force. A healthy work force, curriculum reforms and higher literacy rates are critical to meeting Guyana's development objectives. A stable political and industrial relations environment, anchored by practices of good govemance, is key to attracting foreign investment, improving the business environment and building confidence in the political and economic systems. Sustained increase in agricultural production will not be possible without improvement in farm-to-market roads and extension services, and maintenance and expansion of the drainage and irrigation system. Sustaining income generation at the lower end of production in agriculture, mining and fishery and creaUing jobs in the process will require a vibrant private sector that will take advantage of opportunities created by the Govemment and transform primary commodities into processed products. In all of this, consideration will be given to mainstreaming of gender, age and disability in the poverty programs. In summary, the strategy to reduce poverty is a package of interacting elements that need to be implemented simultaneously. Yet, for ease of presentation, components of the strategy are treated separately. B. Priorities of the Poverty Reduction Program
Given the limited human and financial resource constraints, it is important to set priorities. The public consultations recommended a menu of measures critical to economic expansion and poverty reduction. However, Guyana does not have all the resources to implement an over-ambitious program. The country still suffers from capacity and institutional constraints. Therefore, careful sequencing of programs is essential for effective implementation. In generating sustained growth, priority is placed on removing bureaucratic inertia through institutional and regulatory reforms, re-orienting the public sector to support private sector investment and improving infrastructure to comple- ment economic growth. These reforms are crucial in removing the bottlenecks to production.
In the area of govemance, priority is placed on participatory democracy at the community level, strengthening and deepening of the political dialogue between the two main political parties, and the strengthening of Parliament to conduct oversight supervision. The selection of these priorities is based on Guyana's recent and past experiences with political instability and its negative effects on investment; the strong desire of communities to become involved in programs that affect them; and Govemment's strong commitment to public accountability.
In the social sector, the emphasis is on access, relevance and equity. Yet, difficult choices were made, given the limited resource availabilities. In education, the priority is improving the quality of education and the conditions of service of teachers, reducing overcrowding, and providing targeted subsidies to the poor. Inhealth, priority actions will include increasing access to quality health care by the poor, improving the conditions of service of health care personnel, taking measures to reduce the prevalence and incidence of STIs and HIV/AIDS, and reducing malnutui- tion. In water, the priority is improving the poor's access to and the quality of water. Inhousing, the priority is providing basic infrastructure in new schemes, accelerating the processing of land tidles, and setting up a Revolving Low- Income Housing Fund. To address the pockets of poverty, priority is placed on regions where extreme poverty levels are high and on programs that will support a sustainable livelihood. Given the reforms in the public sector, including the restructuring of the sugar industry and potential sale of the two bauxite companies, priority is placed on expanding the social safety net to support displaced workers.
27 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
These priorities were selected on the basis of (i) the results of the public consultations; (ii) their economic and/or social rates of retum; and (iii) the opportunities that they offer to change the circumstances of the poor. Given capacity and institutional constraints, the implementation of these programs will be sequenced over a 4-year period from 2002- 05. It is also important to note that this is a rolling program that will be revised and updated every three years in response to results and an improved database.
1. Economic Policies to Stimulate Growth Given the evidence of a strong positive correlation between growth and poverty reduction, income redistribution is not a viable option. Guyana's poverty reduction strategy must be predicated on broad-based, labour-intensive, economic growth. Inthis sense, Govemment policies to stimulate economic growth are the most important elements of Guyana's poverty reduction strategy.
Over the last decade, Guyana's economic growth took place in the context of a sound macroeconomic framework supported by institutional and regulatory reforms. The Govemment will build on this progress in its fight to reduce poverty. The goal is to concentrate on programs that generate quick supply and labour responses and support the private sector in making the investments that are critical for economic expansion and growth. In pursuit of this goal, Govemment will focus on (i) maintaining a stable macroeconomic framework; (ii) adopting sector policies to stimu- late production; (iii) modemising the traditional economic base; and (iv) providing systemic support for private sector development.
a) Macroeconomic policies for economic growth For the last ten years, Guyana's record of macroeconomic management has been good. It has successfully man- aged monetary policies to maintain the stability of the exchange rate and inflaton and contained fiscal deficits to a range where, for the most part, it deposited money into the banking system. The Govemment will build on this progress. To maintain a sound macroeconomic framework, Govemment will pursue prudent fiscal and monetary policies to further reduce the fiscal deficit and maintain price and exchange rate stability.
i) Fiscal policy Fiscal policy will aim at increasing public sector savings and reducing domesUic indebtedness. In the area of revenue generation, Govemment will undertake a comprehensive review of the tax system with the objective of broadening the base and reducing rates. Specifically, it will undertake an analysis of the tax code and a review of the current system of exemptions. Further, Government will undertake a far-reaching assessment of non-tax revenues and fees so as to bring them up to date. To support these efforts, it will put measures in place to improve tax collection and administra- tion. In line with this, efforts will be made to staff the Guyana Revenue Authority to its full complement.
On the expenditure side, emphasis will be placed on (i) careful allocation of capital and recurrent expenditures, to improve transparency and enhance the impact on growth and social welfare; (ii) tighter controls and higher efficiency through the computerisation of the public sector payroll; and (iii) rationalisation and streamlining of the public sector. In addition, Govemment will improve the public accounting process through the strengthening of the Office of the Accountant General and implementation of program budgeting in Govemment ministies and agencies by 2004.
Further, Govemment will seek to implement a wages policy, working with unions to have a multi-year agreement. This will include monetary and non-monetary incentives and will improve predictability and avoid yearly conflicts. Further, emphasis will be placed on control of 'Other Charges", in particular, telephone charges, electicity bills and stationery supplies. In addition, due to the restructuring of the public sector, including the bauxite industry, the Govemment will develop policies to provide targeted subsidies to displaced workers.
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In addition, beginning in 2003, Govemment will carry out annual expenditure reviews in priority sectors, including health, education, water, housing and justice administration. These reviews will examine amounts of sectoral expen- ditures, and geographical and program allocations, and track the flow of resources from the line ministries to the Ministry of Finahce. The reviews will further provide information on policies, mechanisms and instruments that will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of expenditure. The timing is based on the need to build capaciy in many of the ministries.
ii) Monetary policies Monetary policy will continue to aim at maintaining price stability and safegulrding the Bank of Guyana's extemal reserve position. Through technical assistance, the Bank of Guyana will 0evAew its domestic debt policy with the objective of retiring domestic bonded debts and thereby reducing domestic interest payments. In particular, the Govemment will support the Bank of Guyana to promote a reduction in interest rates and improve payment systems and the diversification of financial products. It will implement legislative reforms to lower economic risk and expand the availability of collateral as a way of bringing down interest rates.
In addition, the Bank of Guyana will strengthen its supervision department and ensure compliance with the Financial Institutions Act. Further, the Govemment will continue its implementation of the Securities Act (1998), which will lead to the establishment of a stock exchange by June 2002. It will also establish the Insurance Regulatory Unit within the Ministry of Finance to assure prudent management of the insurance industry to support private enterprise and risk management.
b) §y1temic policies to support private sector growth and poverty reduction After several years of state intervention, Guyana's private sector remains embryonic. To ensure that rapid development and success keep pace with the rapidly changing extemal trade environment, Govemment's support is essential. Systemic support will be provided in (i) export promotion; (ii) investment promotion; and (iii) development and expan- sion of small business and cottage industries.
i) Export promotion Given Guyana's limited market, the objective of the Govemment export promotion program will be to create condi- tions for the export sector to be an instrument for sustaining rapid and broad-based growth. This will require maintain- ing a competitive exchange rate, eliminating trade barriers, and providing more effective export promotion services for Guyana's exports. In addition, Govemment, through Guyana Office for Investment (GOINVEST), will (i) provide infor- mation and company matching services; (ii) support local companies to participate in overseas trade fairs and domestic exhibitions; and (iii) coordinate industrial cooperation.
Further, (i) the National Bureau of Standards will be strengthened to enforce and maintain high environmental, hygienic, and production standards; (ii) technical assistance will be provided to firms to improve quality at the factory level; and (iii) information on WTO requirements regarding technical standards will be disseminated to the local private sector. To promote increased private sector participation in the economy, a stock market will be established to permit swifter and more transparent transactions for the transfer of ownership/shares in local industries and facilitate the sale and transfer of shares from privatised public enUties.
ii) Investment promotion With a high debt burden, a nascent private sector, and low technological development, foreign private capital will be critical to the economic and social transformation of Guyana. To stimulate foreign investment, the Govemment will (i) work with stakeholders to improve political stability; (ii) improve infrastructure; (iii) accelerate judicial reforms; (iv) sign trade treaties with its major bilateral trading partners; (v) expand trade and investment promotion abroad; and (vi) strengthen GOINVEST to better facilitate investment. Contacts with extemal investors already established by the
29 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Privatisation Unit under the ongoing Govemment Public Enterprises Privatisation Program, will also be exploited to attract extemal capital and technological innovation to promote both industrial and financial services development.
iii) Development and expansion of small businesses and cottage industries Since 1989, more than 200 small businesses have been established, creating over 8,000 jobs in the process. Although many of the products such as craft, mixed crops, livestock, and manufactured goods are traded domesti- cally, their export potential is high. While systemic support to the private sector will benefit small businesses and cottage industries, specific policies will also be adopted to give them prominence and to integrate them fully into the formal economy, given the potential for rapid job creation.
Towards this end, measures will be taken to (i) simplify the process of business creaton through revisions of the Companies Act; (ii) accelerate registration and licensing procedures; and (iii) implement curriculum reforms. In additon, Govemment will work with the Small Business Associaton, the Institute of Private Sector Development (IPED) and other stakeholders, to lay the Small Business and Cottage Industries Bills before the National Assembly. These Bills and their regulations will codify procedures to accelerate the rapid expansion of micro-enterprise and small businesses in Guyana.
Further, there is strong evidence in Guyana that access to savings, services, and micro-loans has raised and stabilised the incomes of the poor. IPED and the Bank of Nova Scotia, in particular, have been successful in facilitating credit, providing training, and supporting the development of micro-enterprises. This kind of intervention has been benefi- cial, particularly to low-income women.
Loan criteria at IPED and the Grameen-type program at the Bank of Nova Scobia are low, and technical and manage- rial support systems are well-developed. To support these efforts, the capital base of IPED will be expanded to allow the institution to further support small businesses and cottage industries and incentives will be granted to the Bank of Nova Scotia to expand its program. In additon, the transparency of the system of access to credit at IPED will be strengthened and a monitoring unit will be established to review credit policies. To promote compebtion in financing small businesses and cottage industries, Govemment will support the creation and/or strengthening of NGOs to develop a revolving fund facility.
c) Expanding the economic base to benefit the poor The opportunities for growth in manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and forestry are immense. Recent experience in other developing economies indicates that manufacturing can generate very rapid economic growth while employing substantial numbers of youth and women, who comprise a large portion of the poor. Development of agriculture can also contribute substantially to poverty reduction, as many of the poor live in rural areas and are involved in agriculture. Transformation of this sector, therefore, would provide quick income-generating opportunities for the poor. Finally, Guyana's bio-diversity provides the country with a unique tourism product whose full potential remains to be realised. Govemment strategy in these sectors will be to support the private sector by removing constraints that impede progress and to provide the infrastructure that stimulates production.
i) Improving the environment for manufacturing The manufacturing sector provides a key link between domestic raw materials and intemational markets and can greatly assist the attainment of higher income levels among the poor. In Guyana, the availability of raw materials such as agricultural produce, wood, and precious metals provide a strong basis for the rapid expansion of this sector. In response to private sector requests, the Govemment will develop garment-manufacturing parks in strategic locations to stimulate production of manufactured goods, and to take advantage of Guyana's access to markets in the United States of America through the Enhanced Caribbean Basin Initiative. Further, Govemment will study the economic feasibility of building a deep-water harbour. The inadequacies of Guyana's current port facilities and harbours have
30 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER been estimated to increase the country's cost of production of exports by 30 percent.2
ii) Eco-tourism and economic opportunities for Amerindians Guyana's pristine tropical rain forests, fauna and magnificent waterfalls have tremendous tourism potential. However, they are not well-known. The marketing of Guyana's forests will stimulate tourism and expand economic opportuni- ties fpr Amerindians to market their art and crafts, thereby creating employment opportunities for the extreme poor. The Ministry of Tourism, Industry and Commerce, in collaboration witq the Tourism and Hospitality industry, has developed an edo-tourism strategy to promote Guyana as a tourist destintion point. Within the context of that strategy the Govemment will implement a number of measures to develop the sictor.
First, in response to requests from the private sector, the Govemment will establish an autonomous National Tourism Board to license tourism operators and regulate, research, and develop tourism products. Second, guidelines will be put in place for the constnuction of lodges, and the establishment of buffer zones around interior lodges, in order to blend them into the environment and preserve the natural habitat. Third, the safety of tourists will be improved through better coordination between law enforcement agencies and tour operators. Finally, increased emphasis will be placed on (i) promotion of eco-tourism; (ii) collaboration between the major political parties and trade unions in creating a stable political and business-friendly environment; and (iii) sustained training of personnel within the sector to maximise Guyana's comparative advantage of eco-tourism within the Caribbean.
d) Restructurinq and modemising the traditional sector World markets have always been important, as exports have been the principal engine of growth as well as the main source of foreign exchange for Guyana. Unfortunately, Guyana's preferential access to certain markets is likely to be eroded and exports are likely to encounter. mwe intense competition. Sustained economic growth and poverty reduction, therefore, will depend on the ability of exporters to reduce production costs and develop new product lines. In line with these objectives, Govemment will redouble its efforts to support the restructuring of the traditional sectors.
i) Modemising the sugar industry Following many years of declining production and profitability, the sugar industry went through a period of restructur- ing in field and factory rehabilitation. In addition, a private sector firm was contracted to manage the operations of GUYSUCO. In 1999, GUYSUCO's production reached 321,000 tons, the highest level in over two decades. Gains were achieved in both factory and field performance.
In the past, GUYSUCO was able to sell its sugar largely because of its access to preferential markets in the European Union, the United States of America, and the Caribbean. Even so, these markets did not absorb all of GUYSUCO's exports and the company had to sell about 15 percent of its production at much lower prices in world markets, sometimes incurring losses on its marginal sales. With global trade liberalisation, access to preferential markets is likely to be further curtailed and Guyana will increasingly need to compete at world market prices.
The restructuring and modemisation of the sugar industry cannot be overemphasised. Sugar contributes 16 percent to GDP, employs over 25 percent of the public sector work force, and accounts for 22 percent of merchandise exports. With increased global competition and depressed commodity prices. Failure to move quickly to restructure the industry would have a devastating impact on poverty and also adversely affect Guyana's debt sustainability over the medium-term.
In light of this, in 2001 GUYSUCO developed a strategy to modemise the industry and to reposition itself both to profit from its comparative advantage as a competitive, low-cost, regional sugar producer and to reduce its production costs to be able to compete in intemational markets. In line with the recommendations of a cost-benefit analysis conducted recently, and as part of its overall strategy to improve its intemational competitiveness, GUYSUCO will (i) modemise and.upgrade the Skeldon factory; (ii) sell unproductive assets; (iii) restructure management contracts; and (iv) continue discussions with trade unions to link wages and bonuses to productivity and profitability indicators.
2 See 'Analysis of the effects on Guyana's export sector of changes in intemational markets, February 1996' by Amy Angel
31 In uuIW^rA6FvtK II KLUULlUnb |IKAIUT rAFZK
ii) Modemising the agriculture sector As many of the poor live in rural areas and are involved in agriculture, transformation of this sector will provide quick income-generating opportunities for the poor. Removal of constraints that impede progress will also reduce poverty. The strategy to transform the agriculture sector to benefit the poor will centre on the following elements including (i) acceleration of conversion of leaseholds to freeholds; (ii) expansion of land size for agricultural activities, depending on type of activity; (iii) emphasis on the improvement of extension services; and (iv) improved drainage and irrigation services,
In addition, Govemment will strengthen the Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) to carry out rice research to increase yields, implement a pure-line seed paddy production program, and devote more resources to improvement of milling yields. Through extension services, Government will seek to improve the management and use of fertilizers and pesticides to both increase yields and protect the environment. In response to private sector requests, GRDB, in collaboration with the Natfonal Bureau of Standards, will impose strict quality standards on rice products for the export market, while the Govemment will work with the CARICOM Secretariat to enforce existing protocols.
e) Develooing new sectors to support growth Guyana offers advantages in mineral and human resources that will be tapped in the medium term. Over the same time period, the economic opportunities presented by its proximity to markets in North America and its strategic location as a gateway to the Caribbean and South America will be developed. Towards this end, Govemment will pursue and promote the (i) exploration and exploitation of mineral resources; and (ii) development of Information Technology.
i) Exploration and exploitation of mineral resources Detailed geological surveys point to an abundance of mineral and other natural resources in Guyana. At present, about 35 percent of export proceeds come from bauxite, gold and diamonds. While the fortunes of the bauxite industry are declining, due to high producUon costs and increased competition, focus will be placed on extensive marketing of Guyana's potential in other mnineral resources. In line with this, Govemment will place concessions in all mineral categories under continuous review in an effort to attract investors.
ii) Introducing information and communications technology The implementation of an Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Strategy or 'Connectivity Agenda' will be another priority in diversification of the economy. It will be a pivotal tool to improve govemance, accountability and transparency, generate employment - especially for women and youth - develop human resource potential, and strengthen national unity. ICT will facilitate E-transactions; increase public sector efficiency and transparency; and grant citizens access to public services by making them available online (E-Government). Through outreach pro- grams, ICT will enable low-income individuals to gain access to the Intemet. It will also promote E-exports such as outsourcing and data processing; encourage economic diversification and create new jobs, particularly for the young; and establish network connectivity to lower unit costs and benefit from network extemalities. To take advantage of the opportunities in this sector, Govemment will (i) introduce communication reforms; (ii) provide incentives for the development of informatics parks with a full complement of infrastructure; and (iii) support the provision of training in Information Technology.
) Protectinq the environment Guyana is especially vulnerable to environmental pressures. Over three-quarters of the land area is forested and the ecosystem is generally fragile. The most populated area in the country, where 9 out of 10 Guyanese live, lies below sea level and is subject to flooding unless sea defences are protected. In addition, the economy is dependent on the exploitation of minerals and forest products which carries with it the risk of environmental degradation. To minimize the impact of environmental degradation, the Govemment's principal environmental policy objectives will be to (i)
32 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCrION STRATEGY PAPER enhance the quality of life without degrading or contaminating the environment; (ii) ensure sustainable use of natural resources for economic growth; and (iii) protect and conserve unique habitats, natural treasures and bio-diversity.
To achieve these objectives, Govemment's strategy will be to (i) rigorously enforce the provisions of the Environmental Protection Act; (ii) promote public awareness of the benefits of sound environmental policy; and (iii) involve local communities in developing programs to manage vulnerable ecosystems and conserve the resources of protected areas. In addition, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will monitor and enforce standards for air emissions, effluent discharge, and noise levels of industries; ensure stricter compliance with environmental management plans and conduct regular environmental audits; and promote the training of adequate numbers of technicians to monitor adherence to legal environmental standards.
2. Good Governance and the Business Environment Good govemance is essential for accountability, transparency and the restoration of confidence in the economic and political systems. Priorities in good govemance are predicated on establishing a stable industrial and political envi- ronment; accountability and probity in national affairs; equal treatment for all; and stakeholder inclusion in managing the affairs of the state. To these ends, Guyana reformed its Constitution to enhance fundamental rights and the rule of law. Major modemisation and decentralisation efforts are already underway in the executive branch. The National Assembly has passed laws empowering it to oversee all areas of Govemment policy and administration, while reforms are underway to strengthen the institutional and regulatory framework. In summary, the key elements of priorities under good govemance include regulatory and institutional reforms, public accountability, confidence building in the judicial and political systems, local govemment reforms and protecting fundamental human rights.
a) Institutional and regulatory reforms In improving institutional and regulatory reforms, emphasis will be placed on public sector modemisation; tender and procurement reforms: decentralisation of public services; and improving the land development and allocation frame- work.
i) Public sector modemisation Public sector expenditures account for about 42 per cent of GDP, with public investment accounting for about one- third of these expenditures.. Efficient use of public monies, therefore, is a must if Guyana is to grow fast and improve social conditions. The Govemment is keenly aware of the need to improve the efficiency with which it uses taxpayers' money. To this end, it is modemising the public sector. Far-reaching reforms will be undertaken to improve policy- making, project design, auditing, and tender and procurement.
The Ministry of Finance will be singled out for structural reforms so as to improve its capacity to formulate and implement policies. The State Planning Secretariat will be strengthened to improve project design, implementation and evaluation, both ex ante and ex post, to build project pipelines that will advance development and reduce poverty. The objective of these reforms will be to improve efficiency, complement private sector growth, and improve the delivery of services to the public. These reforms will be done without necessarily increasing the wage bill, beyond the limits of inflaton and productivity increases. Govemment has already eliminated redundant positions and reduced vacant positions in the establishment from over 25,000 to 12,000.
In addition, Govemment will further strengthen the Office of the Auditor General to enable it to carry out its functions effectively. Towards this end, training in key areas of auditing will be provided on a continuous basis. In addition, Govemment will continue its drive to complete its privatisation program by 2002. Specifically, GNCB Trust has already been brought to the point of sale, while the corresponding date for GNCB is June 2002 and for LINMINE and BERMINE, December 2002. The three remaining public enterprises, GNSC, GUYOIL and GUYSUCO will be restruc- tured and modemised.
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ii) Reforming the tender and procurement system In 2001, the National Assembly passed a law establishing the Public Procurement Commission. Budgetary resources were allocated in the 2001 budget to establish the Secretariat of the Commission. The Public Procurement Commis- sion will (i) monitor and review the functioning of all public procurement systems; (ii) promote awareness of the rules, procedures and special requirements of the procurement process; (iii) safeguard the national interest in public procurement matters; (iv) monitor the performance of procurement bodies; (v) approve procedures for public pro- curement; (vi) disseminate rules and procedures and recommend modifications to procurement agencies; and (vii) investigate complaints from the public.
With the establishment of the Commission, the Govemment will lay the Amended Tender and Procurement Bill in Parliament in 2002. The elements of the proposed amendment will include (i) the development of standard bidding documents; (ii) the revision of thresholds; and (iii) reforms of Regional Tender Boards. Simultaneous with these efforts, the public audit function will be strengthened to include more comprehensive operational performance audits of public sector programs.
iii) Decentralising public services The concentration of key public services in Georgetown is a source of major concem. Travel costs to Georgetown, especially from the hinterland and the more distant regions, are high, waiting time is costly, and frustrations are rife. To deal with these problems, key services to the public will be provided in the regions, including (i) issuance of birth and death certificates; (ii) issuance of passports; (iii) issuance of house lots and land titles; and (iv) processing and facilitation,of pxports. The Govemment will strengthen RDCs and support agencies to establish regional offices to carry out these functions.
iv) Improving the land development and allocation framework The newly enacted Guyana Lands and Surveys Commission (LSC) Act established a new semi-autonomous land agency with the authority to manage all public lands and develop land use plans, policies and information systems. The same office will process all applications for agriculture, eco-tourism, and industrial and commercial develop- ment. A computerized land information database is being developed to create and maintain up-to-date lease and land use records, facilitate rent billing and collection, and facilitate the identification of available lands for development.
To accelerate land titling and land allocation and to minimise the perception of discrimination in land allocation, criteria and standards for evaluation and approval of land applications are being developed for immediate implemen- tation. Legislation will be enforced against discriminatory practices, including gender and poverty bias in the alloca- bon of land rights.
Pursuant to Government's decision to convert small parcels from leasehold to freehold, several land development schemes are being regularised, and eligible parcels are being converted to freehold status. In addition, for those parcels that do not qualify for freehold, a new standard agricultural lease has been developed and is being imple- mented to provide for 50 years duration, and rights of mortgage, renewal and inheritance.
The LSC has been given the mandate to develop land use plans and policies. To this end, a public land inventory is being made. A Geographical Information System is being developed that will be used as a tool for land use planning. The LSC has acquired professional land use expertise that will guide the development of plans and policies.
b) Improving public accountability To improve public accountability, in 2001 the National Assembly passed a law establishing four National Assembly sectoral committees; dealing respectively with natural resources; economic services; foreign relations; and social services. These committees are responsible for the scrutiny of all areas of Govemment policy and administration. This innovation is important for a number of reasons. First, Pariament will do more oversight. Second, the reforms provide a more inclusive form of Government where the parliamentary opposition plays an active role in govemance. Third, the reforms will allow for better understanding of Government policy and effective implementation of programs. The Government will support these reforms by allocating resources for the effective functioning of the committees.
c) Building confidence in the poLitical system Since 1997, Guyana has faced difficult political problems stemming from pre- and post-elections disturbances. These uncertainties have affected business confidence and resulted in a reduction of private sector investment. After the 2001 elections, the Govemment and the main opposition party agreed to a number of measures to restore public confidence in the political system. Six task forces that report directly to the President and the Leader of the Opposition were set up to deal with key issues of concem to the two main parties. These task forces address: * local govemment reform to (i) ensure completion of the electoral reform process, (ii) monitor and guide the drafting, enacting and implementation of legislation granting greater autonomy to local govemments, and (iii) recommend measures for continuing education programs on the new local govemment system; * border and national security questions, namely, review of the status of Guyana's border and maritime issues and recommendations for short- and long-term solutions; * national policy on the distribution of land and house lots to improve the system of land allocation and ensure that policies are being implemented in a fair and transparent way; * bauxite industry resuscitation, to examine available options, taking into consideration the prospects of the industry and its importance to the communities concemed; * depressed communities; and * radio monopoly and non-partisan Boards, i.e., the issue of Govemment monopoly of radio and the question of non-partisan Boards of Directors for the state-owned media and National Frequency Management Unit (NFMU).
Since these task forces came into being, political tensions have reduced significantly. To sustain this progress, Govemment is committed to working closely with all stakeholders to maintain peace and stability, which are essential elements for investment flows and economic growth.
d) Reducina crime and improving administration of iustice The spate of violent crime and the long delays in dispensing justice continue to be major concems. To deal with these problems, the security agencies, in particular, the Guyana Police Force, will undergo comprehensive reforms. In particular, more police ranks will be recruited and retained, police outposts/stations wilj be opened in several commu- nities, increased resources will be allocated to training and forensic investigations, and community policing will be supported.
To improve justice administration, assistance will be provided to (i) refurbish court facilities; (ii) further improve facilities at the Law Library; (iii) introduce administrative systems and procedures to improve court records and transcripts; (iv) institute continuing education for the magistracy and judiciary; (v) review the emoluments of the magistracy and judiciary; and (vi) strengthen the independence of the judiciary. In addition, the Govemment will seek technical assistance for adjudicating the extensive backlog of cases. Further, laws will be amended and/or enforced and resources will be allocated to deal with child labour, child abuse and domestic violence.
35 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCrION STRATEGY PAPER
e) Reforming local government Discontent with the performance of regional and local administration is high. There is general consensus that communities should elect their own officials to represent their interests in terms of program development, implemen- tation and monitoring. Towards this end, the Govemment will (i) review the current status of legislation and identify parliamentary action required to give direct representation to communities; (ii)assess the revenue base and propose a basis, with checks and balances, for fixing the rates and revenue collection system; (iii) examine human resources requirements for enhanced and effective local government administration, including terms and conditions of service; and (iv)strengthen information systems for planning, monitoring, evaluation and reporting of programs. In addition, local govemment elections will be held on a regular basis. Anti-corruption legislation which was passed in 2000 will be implemented, and the Office of the Auditor-General will be strengthened to enforce the provisions under the law.
f) Protecting fundamental human rights Inview of the fact that Guyana is a multi-ethnic society with six ethnic groups, in 2000 Parliament passed a law to establish the Ethnic Relations Commission to promote racial harmony. In2001, Guyana's Constitution was amended, in part to promote the enhancement of fundamental rights and the rule of law. Four independent Commissions were named: Human Rights, Women and Gender Equality, Indigenous Peoples, and the Rights of the Child. The Govem- ment will provide resources to establish and/or strengthen these Commissions to enable them to fully execute their functions. Table 4.1 presents selected functions of the Commissions.
3. Investmentin Table 4.1: Functions of Human Rights Commissions Human Capital . In addition to maintaining pru- ~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I~~~~~~~dent fiscal and monetary policies Ethnic Relations . Provide for equality of opportunity between persons of different ethnic f and improving good gover- groups * Promote the elimination of all fomis of discrimination on the bais of nance, the Govemment's strat- race egy forpoverty reduction centres * Discourage and prohibit persons, institutions, political parties and around investment in human assocatbons from promoting discrminabon on the basis of race * Promote education and training programs capital. These investments will * Monitor and review legislabon to ensure that individual rihts are not be made in both formal and non- violated ~~~~~~~~formaleducaton and primary * Uaise with governmental and non-governmental organisatins to health care, with a focus on pre- * Educatethepublicabouttheirbasichumanrights ventative health care and in- Women and Gender Equaliy * Promote issues related to the enhancement of the status of women creased attention to HIV/AIDS. * Promote the integration of women's needs and interests and The Govemment's strategy is to mainstneaming of gender issues * Educate and monitr employers and the public on desirable accompany these actvities with employment practicesotowards women investments in physical capital * Recommend and promote the implementation of legislation and the to provide better water, sanitation, Iformulabon of policies and measures that would enhance and protect theslatusofwomen * and housing services. g i Promote and protect Om rights of indigenous peoples * Raise awareness of the contributons of and problems faced by, a) Education indigenous pwope * Promote empowerment of indigenous peoples, especially wth regard The Government's goals for to village councils inthe local government system education are to reduce illit- 1 *~~~~~Makue recommendations for the protection, preservation arnd promulgaton of the cultural heritage and languages of indigenous eracy rates, reduce drop-out and ipeoples | | repetition rates, especially at the Rights of the Child * Promote the rghts and interests of children primary level, increase second- * Monitor compliance and make recommendatons for compliance with ary school enrolment, and im- intemational oonventions on the rights of children * Monitor, evaluate and make recommendatorns on policies, procedures prove the quality and relevance and practices of organizations inorder to promote the rghts of children of education for all Guyanese,
36 Tht GUYANA POVtRTY RtDUCn1ON STRATnGY PAPIER especially children. To achieve these goals, the Govemment's strategy centres on (i) reforming the curriculum and expanding the teaching of Information Technology; (ii) increasing access to and attendance at secondary schools; (iii) increasing the number of trained teachers; (iv) complementing teacher's salaries with non-pecuniary incentives; (v) improving physical facilities to reduce overcrowding; (vi) targeting functional illiteracy among out-of-school youth; (vii) providing targeted support to the poor; and (viii) strengthening the Ministry of Education.
i) Curricula reforms Advancements in technology, changes in the global market place, trends towards the free movement of labour, the need for beKter understanding among the diverse cultural and ethnic groups, and the country's developmental thrust require a re-orientation of school curricula.
Curricula reforms will include (i) a pilot phase on the use of computers and the Intemet in school instruction; (ii) greater emphasis on Science and Technology in primary and secondary schools; (iii) introduction of national aptitude tests in Mathematics and language arts; (iv) maintaining balance between academics and the development of technical/vocational skills in secondary schools; and (v) expanding skills training in partnership with the private sector. Health and Family Life Education (HFLE), with its emphasis on respect for diversity, pluralism, tolerance, and respect for democratic values and human rights, is also being introduced.
In addition, emphasis will be placed on (i) mastery of literacy and numeracy skills; (ii) aligning teacher training programs at CPCE and NCERD with the requirements of the new curricula; (iii) integrating modem technologies into teaching, leaming and school administration; (iv) improving student and teacher aKtendance; and (v) enhancing equity in access to education.
ii) Improving access to and attendance at school As the target of universal primary education has been achieved, emphasis will be placed on expanding early child- hood education, reducing repetition and drop-out rates in primary schools and increasing the secondary school enrolment ratio from about 53 percent in 1999 to 75 percent in 2004. Within this target, and given the fact that approximately 70 percent of the population lives in rural and interior areas, the increase in enrolment, especially at the secondary level, will favour children in those locations. Towards this end, more secondary schools will be constructed and/or rehabilitated, especially in under-served areas. School mapping and space utilisation exercises will be carried out to inform transition planning and system planning, aimed at guaranteeing equitable access across geographic regions.
iii) Teacher training, ancillary personnel and emoluments There will also be a conscious effort to reverse the growth inthe percentage of untrained teachers. For this reason, the Govemment will implement measures to reduce student/trained teacher rabos from about 40:1 to 27:1 at primary and secondary schools. These measures will include (i) a review of the University of Guyana Diploma of Education Program to facilitate growth in the number of graduate trained teachers; and (ii) the expansion of distance education training centres to cover the 10 administrative regions. Further, Govemment will work with the Guyana Teachers Union to seek ways of improving the conditions of service of teachers, including the provision of non-pecuniary incentives. This is essential for recruiting and retaining teachers.
In addition, social workers and other ancillary personnel will be recruited to (i) provide counselling to students; (ii) work with parents and students to reduce absenteeism; and (iii) provide other essental support to students. Other mea- sures will be put in place to enforce discipline among students. Janitorial services will also be contracted out.
iv) Reducing overcrowding and increasing allocations for maintenance To reduce overcrowding in schools, Govemment will accelerate the implementaton of the (i) Secondary School
37 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION S1RATEGY PAPER
Reform Programme (SSRP); (ii) Guyana Education Access Project (GEAP); and (iii) Basic Education and Manage- ment Project (BEAM). Over the last several years, the Govemment has rehabilitated over 300 nursery, pdmary and secondary schools. The Government's medium-term educational program will continue to place emphasis on rehabilitation and construction.
To sustain this large number of facilities over the longer term, Govemment will allocate increased resources to maintenance. A school maintenance policy and strategy will be developed to establish guidelines for resource allocation, and preserve an improved leaming environment for students over the longer term.
v) Targeting functional literacy among out-of-school youth Govemment will build on the progress made in this area by supporting special education programs in Mathematics, language arts, skills training, and communication, self-development and leadership skills for out-of-school youth. This program will be pursued in partnership with the private sector and NGOs.
vi) Targeted subsidies to the poor Clearly, providing high standards of education with fully-equipped facilities will be costly. Parents are already paying fees for extra lessons, which have become the norm, and this adversely affects poor families. In many instances, students do not have the full complement of required textbooks. To overcome these problems, the Ministry of Educa- tion (MOE) will develop criteria for targeting poor families for vouchers covering assistance with textbooks, examina- tions costs and other education-related costs.
vii) Skills Training and Employment Program (STEP) The Govemment will promote STEP to deepen its partnership with the private sector in job creation. Emphasis in skills training and upgrading will focus on three major groups: (i) youth with primary and/or secondary education; (ii) civil servants in the lower grades; and (iii) self-trained artisans and technicians. The private sector will identify areas of need and quantify the average number of persons required in each area per year. A number of training options will be pursued including employer-based, private sector-based and public sector-based training programs. Towards this end, Govemment will place priority on the establishment of technical/vocational institutes and on a National Skills and Employment Register disaggregated by community and region.
viii) Strengthening of the Ministry of Education To improve the overall performance of the educafion sector, the MOE will adopt a more interactive management role. The Organisational Capacity Assessment for MOE completed in 1999 will define how this management role is assumed. Specifically, MOE will (i) develop an integrated resource management system that will enhance perfor- mance and accountability; (ii) implement strategies in four principal areas of management, including national strate- gic education policy, central ministry operational policy, regional education programs and improving management and functions of schools; and (iii) develop a human resource development program that will address the demand, supply, and placement of teachers as well as remuneration and benefits.
b) Health Although spending has increased in recent years and the sector has seen significant improvements, it is quite clear that important reforms will have to be implemented to reduce the common causes of mortality and morbidity and to provide equitable opportunities for people to access those sanitary and social measures and services that would protect, promote and maintain or recover health, especially among the poor. To achieve these goals, Government will focus on improving (i) matemal and child health; (ii) the incidence rates of communicable diseases; (iii) manage- t'nent of chronic diseases; (iv) nutritional status; (v) access to mental health services; and (vi) access to quality health care.
38 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
i) Maternal and child health Matemal and infant mortality and morbidity rates are too high, especially in poor communities. Govemment will implement the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI) and promote 'baby friendly" programs, while working towards ensuring that all health care workers are suitably trained and all hospitals are certified for Baby- Friendly Hospital status. It will also provide counselling services and supplies to health centres, with special attention to hinterland areas; fully implement the Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act; expand the PAP smear program; and augment immunisation programs to reduce the inequities that presently exist, particularly in hinterland areas.
ii) Communicable diseases The incidence rates of communicable diseases such as the vector-bome diseases like malaria, dengue, filariasis, and leishmaniasis, as well as HIV/AIDS, TB, acute respiratory infections, hepatits, and STIs are high. To redress this situabon, Govemment will (i) invest in chemotherapy; (ii) increase supplies, equipment and human resources for the Vector Control Services (VCS); and (iii) augment community mobilisation and educabon to alleviate conditions that foster the spread of such diseases. In addition, Govemment will (i) increase access to voluntary counselling and testing services in all regions; (ii) improve and expand the availability of services for diagnosis, treatment and care of STIs; (iii) increase access to condoms; and (iv) increase school programs on sexual and reproductive health.
With specific reference to HIV/AIDS, Government will increase resources to (i) develop an up-to-date STIs, HIV/AIDS database; (ii) expand the program for reduction of mother-to-child transmission to all regions; and (iii) train social workers to provide community-based education and counselling, especially to the youth. Further, increased alloca- tions will be provided to (i) procure drugs and/or support the manufacture of AIDS drugs in Guyana; (ii) sustain public awareness programs on HIV/AIDS; and (iii) increase access to anti-retroviral and other drugs and services to address HIV/AIDS. The AIDS ward at the GPH and the Mahaica Hospital will also be rehabilitated to accommodate patients with AIDS.
iii) Chronic diseases Chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and cancer affect large numbers of persons and lead to debilitating complications including nephropathy, neuropathy, cataracts and heart diseases. The inability of the current health system to treat special ailments such as hydrocephalus, spinal injury, and cardiac and kidney diseases affects the poor more than any other income group. The present arrangements under which patients are sent abroad for treatment are not only expensive and time-consuming, but because of delays, often result in the death of some patients on the waiting list. To improve the current situation as regards patients needing treatment regionally, Govem- ment will seek to expand the number of regional medical facilities which offer treatment to Guyanese patients, and encourage the private sector to define what role it can play in supporting patients with special ailments and disorders.
In collaboration with the private sector and NGOs, Govemment will also establish and equip facilities to deal with ailments and disorders such as cancer, and orthopedic, kidney, and other diseases. Specialists in these fields will be encouraged to visit Guyana to provide treatment, an arrangement which will provide many benefits including (i) reducing waiting time and mortality; (ii) building local capacity within the health system to undertake similar proce- dures; and (iii) providing better post-operative care to patients.
To reduce the incidence of complications associated with diabetes, hypertension and certain types of cancer, programs to improve prevention, early diagnosis and management of these diseases will be implemented, especially in the health centres, health posts and regional and community hospitals, and community-based education programs will be conducted. The Govemment has also decided that greater efforts must be made to address eye problems. Thus, a special program to reduce the huge backlog of cataract cases to a level that the present treatment capacity can manage will be embarked on during 2002. In addition, efforts to establish a low-vision centre will be continued. Finally, the Govemment will work with the private sector and NGOs to establish a dialysis centre in 2002, and the
39 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER cancer treatment centre will also be completed in 2002.
iv) Nutritional status To improve the nutritional status not only of women and children but of the entire population, with emphasis on the poor, priority attention will be given to (i) expanding school feeding programs; (ii)expanding services to pregnant and lactating mothers below the poverty level; (iii) providing support to the elderly and pensioners; and (iv)providing assistance to families of workers displaced by public sector restructuring. The core elements of the nutrition project are being designed.
v) Mental health The high incidence rates of suicide, street children, child abuse and domestic violence signify the degree of stress experienced in society. Govemment will (i) introduce community counselling centers; (ii)implement an aggressive anti-suicide program; (iii) provide facilities and services to street children; and (iv)support training and sensitisation programs on child abuse, domestic violence, parenting and stress management.
vi) Access to quality health care To improve access to quality health care, particularly in hinterland areas, facilities will be upgraded to provide basic health services, including immunisation, vaccination, blood and urine tests, and chest X-rays. Currently, many pa- tients travel to the GPH to seek these simple and routine services at a very high cost. With upgraded facilities, trained medical personnel, including doctors, nurses and technicians, will visit health centres in interior and difficult-to-reach regions on a regular basis to provide primary care services and perform simple operating procedures. Maintenance of health facilities is key to access, and the Govemment will review and develop a comprehensive maintenance program for health facilities throughout the country. Continuing education programs will be implemented to broaden the skills base of health care personnel.
Increased resources will also be allocated to the procurement of drugs and medical supplies and storage. A National Materials Management Agency has been established to rationalise and upgrade the procurement and distribution of drugs and health supplies throughout the sector. Reforms to tender and procurement will markedly reduce the delay often associated with the importation of drugs. Inaddition, the main drug bonds and stores of the major hospitals and health facilities will be computerised with modem inventory software; and the delivery of drugs and medical supplies outside of Georgetown will be undertaken incollaboration with the private sector. In addition, emphasis will be placed on improving storage facilities for medical supplies and drugs in health centres throughout the country, and existing laws on sale of drugs will be enforced.
Govemment is also committed to improving the efficient use of resources in the health sector. Therefore, medical facilities that are currently underutilised may be closed, following evaluation. The savings generated will be mainly applied to establishing more health posts in remote areas, and more generally, to providing afleet of ambulances and other transport facilities, improving radio, telephone, and other communication networks, and financing and expand- ing a program of rotating visits by medical practitioners, nurses and technicians.
4. Infrastructureto Support Services The poor state of Guyana's social and productive infrastructure is an important factor contributing to poverty. As the consultation process pointed out, there is insufficient access to potable water, a lack which affects the poor more than the non-poor and contributes to the spread of disease. Guyana's sanitation infrastructure is also deficient, with the poor often living in insanitary environments as a result of inadequate dumpsites for garbage, poor maintenance of drains, and poor placement of latrines and burial sites (too close to rivers). To address these problems, the Poverty Reduction Strategy includes components to increase investment in water, sanitation, and housing. In addition, to stimulate economic growth, it includes investments in basic infrastructure.
40 THE GUYA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
a) Water The Govemment's medium-term strategy inthe water sector will be dedicated to improving the quality and delivery of services, ensuring good and effective regulation of the sector, and implementing a subsidy program to help poor households connect to the system and/or pay a portion of their monthly bill. Specifically, the objectives of the water sector will include (i) provision of access to safe water to 95 percent of the population; (ii)establishment of a Guyana Water Company to provide economies of scale; (iii) streamlining of activities in the coastal zone with emphasis on treatment of raw water, and (iv)implementation of a comprehensive rehabilitation and maintenance plan.
Inaddition, more chemicals will be procured to treat raw water and maintain sanitary conditions in and around water conservancies. The Ministry of Housing and Water (MOHW) will coordinate its program with the Drainage and Inigation Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, as poor maintenance of D&l schemes is partly blamed for the contamination of water systems. MOHW will also mount public awareness programs to educate families to conserve and treat water.
Priority attention will be given to the rehabilitation and maintenance of the water infrastructure. Frequent damage to water mains due to old age, low water pressure, and low levels of maintenance compromise the quality and availabil- ity of water. To deal with these problems, the MOHW, incollaboration with the water agency, will prepare a multi-year comprehensive rehabilitation and maintenance program, for which an increased budgetary allocation will be granted.
To improve access to water, about 100 wells will be drilled, 50 windmills constructed and over 400 pumps installed in hinterland areas in the medium term. Pumping stations will also be rehabilitated and/or constructed in several hinterland areas. Inaddition, Govemment will rehabilitate over 150 minor water systems, involving the replacement of pumps and engines and refurbishment of electro-mechanical systems in rural areas. These improvements will bring immediate benefits to over 200,000 residents. Inmunicipal areas, the focus of the water program will be the construc- tion of additional ground storage tanks, and the drilling of new wells.
b) Sanitation The Govemment's goal in the sanitation sector isto improve the sanitary conditions of the population of Georgetown, and to reduce the current levels of environmental degradabion through improvement in the quality and availability of the water supply and sewerage services. Consistent with this goal, two major activibies will be undertaken: (i) rehabili- tation of the sewer system including cleaning, repair and replacement of yard and street sewers, refurbishment and reconditioning of pump stations, and rehabilitation and extension of the existing outfall; and (ii) construction of a sludge pre-treatment facility, including a pumping station, a bar screen, a grit removal chamber and a 2-day storage facility. In addition, more environmental health officers will be recruited to enforce existing or amended laws on environmental safety. In the medium term, Govemment will design another project to deal with sanitary conditions in the coastal belt.
c) Housinq Govemment's strategy in the housing sector will be to (i) strengthen shelter and land markets; (ii) expedite the divestiture of public land for sound residential settlement; (iii) accelerate squatter area regularisation, where appropri- ate, and relocate squatters from land that is unsuitable for occupation; (iv)advance the institutional strengthening of CH&PA; (v)establish basic infrastructure in new housing areas; and (vi) develop long-term planning towards housing development. Consistent with this strategy, Govemment will develop and prepare over 50,000 house lots. Inaddition, the reorganisation of CH&PA and reforms at the Deeds Registry will be accelerated to streamline the processing of titles and other land-related documentabon. This will eliminate the long waiting time, the backlogs, and the duplica- tion of effort that are now integral parts of land processing.
Inaddition, a policy framework paper on real estate development will be published in 2002. The paper will (i) lay out
41 THt GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION S1RAT[GY PAPER
the modalities and the roles of the private and public sectors in housing; (ii)examine financing instruments in the housing sector, (iii) consider reforms that will broaden and enforce compliance with payment of property taxes; and (iv) address the standardisation of buildings and materials, the accreditation of contractors and builders, and altema- tive building models, with the emphasis on cost reduction.
Further, emphasis will be placed on making housing affordable and accessible to low-income eamers. In line with this, a.Low-Income Housing Revolving Fund will be established to create the environment for competitive bidding by private contractors for the construction of various models of housing units, including 'shelr units: the emphasis will be on (i) low-cost construction and (ii) provision for the extension of housing units as household incomes increase.
Priority will also be given to developing housing infrastructure in new housing areas. In particular, the MOHW will coordinate with other Govemment ministries, agencies and the private sector to construct access roads, lay water infrastructure, and install telephone lines and electricity. Govemment will also allot land for development of facilities, including police outposts/stations, post offices, recreational facilities and other essential services.
5. Safety Nets The effective implementation of the growth strategy and equity-enhancing measures described above should lead to increased income and reduced poverty. However, many of the poor are so far below the poverty line that improved prospects for employment or sizeable increases in their incomes will still leave them severely disadvantaged. Others, for reasons of age, disability, or illness, are unable to participate in the economy.
Taking these factors into account, the Govemment will design a Social Safety Net (SSN) with the support of the donor agencies. The SSN will work to provide (i) cash and other support to displaced workers while they seek other opportunities in the labour market; (ii) support to pregnant and lactating women; and (iii) targeted subsidies in electricity and water tariffs to the poor, including the elderly, pensioners, and people with disabilifies. In additon, the SSN will provide the vouchers for textbooks, examination fees and other educaton-related costs for students in poor families. The Govemment will contribute budgetary support and strengthen the Ministry of Human Services and Social Security to carry out these functons. In addition, NGOs will be encouraged to support the implementation of this program.
6. Infrastructure to SupportGrowth The medium-term infrastructure strategy is to improve the maintenance, quality and coverage of sea defence, roads, and drainage and irrigaton schemes. This is vital for reducing poverty and ensuring access to economic opportuni- ties. Well-functioning infrastructure services can improve competitiveness and market access, which are key ele- ments for generating income and employment.
The overall strategy for infrastructure development will revolve around the following principles. First, Govemment will consider the use of greater private sector involvement in the implementaton of complicated infrastructure projects. Second, it will put together packages of sufficient size to make projects more attractive to intematonal contractors, without excluding local bidders. Third, it will pursue the creation of joint ventures for public works to encourage the transfer of technology to the local construcbon industry.
a) Sea defences About 90 percent of the populabon live on the coastal strip, which accounts for less than 2 percent of Guyana's land area. The soil in this strip is fertile although most of it is below mean high tide level and exposed to flooding. Sea defences are therefore crifical in protectng investments in agriculture, roads, communications, and water systems. The objective of the sea defence program in the medium term will be to reduce breaches, build local capacity to do maintenance and rehabilitation works, and increase community participation in the inspection and protection of the sea defence system. Increased budgetary allocations will complement donor support in maintenance and rehabilita-
42 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCrION STRATEGY PAPER tion works. The capacity of the construction industry will be improved through the training of local contractors and consultants in sea defence practices. In addition, greater reliance will be placed on local communities to monitor potential breaches and protect against the removal of materials for sea defence infrastructure.
b) Roads and river transort Road and river transport are by far the principal forms of transport in Guyana. Improving overall road maintenance, and rehabilitating farm-to-market roads, bridges, stellings and ferries would lower transportation costs and integrate rural economies with that of Georgetown. It would als,o lengthen vehicle life, save foreign exchange in fuel and spare parts imports, and generate savings in travel time.
The Govemment will therefore continue to rehabilitate farm-to-market roads, bridges, stellings and feries and allo- cate increased resources to preventative maintenance. The capacity of the Roads Administration Division (RAD) of the Ministry of Public Works and Communications, and of the Ministry of Local Govemment, which is responsible for the maintenance of main roads, will also be strengthened. To sustain the maintenance and reconstruction programs, several options, including user fees and the contracting-out of ferries to the private sector, will be considered.
In addition, Govemment will rehabilitate the Mahaica-Rosignol road and reconstruct the Mahaica, Mahaicony and Abary bridges. The Berbice River Bridge will also be constructed through build-operate-own (BOT) arrangements with a private sector company. The Govemment will construct the access road leading to the bridge at Everton. This infrastructure development will open up the eastem portion of Guyana and generate economies of scale, in particular, with the increased trade between Guyana and Surname and the restructuring of the Skeldon and Albion sugar factories.
Further, Govemment will work actively with its counterparts in Brazil and the private sector to study the economic feasibility of developing a deep-water harbour, a container port, and the construction of the Guyana-Brazil road. Guyana's strategic location vis a vis the Americas, particularly Brazil, offers natural advantages for the southem regions of Brazil to export and import goods through Guyana. The cost savings for Brazil are likely to be considerable while the job creation opportunites for Guyana and, in particular, the integration of the hinterland communities into the macro-economy, cannot be overemphasised.
c) Drainage and irrigaion The success of increased agricultural production in the rural economies will require the rehabilitation and improve- ment of D&l systems. Despite increased budgetary support to the D&l sector, the system is in a state of serious disrepair and neglect. This is attributable to (i) weak capacity to operate and maintain the system; and (ii) the overly complex and inefficient, multi-layered legal and institutional structure regulating drainage, irrigation and flood control.
To bring more land under cultivation, generate quick supply responses and benefit the poor in rural and interior locations, Govemment will implement the D&I rehabilitation master plan completed in 1998. The core elements of the plan include rehabilitation and maintenance of D&l canals, conservancy dams, kokers, sluices, and water pumps. To maintain D&I schemes, Govemment will establish Water Users' Associabons and charge them with responsibility for operation and maintenance of D&l work.
To improve the efficiency of the D&l system, Parliament enacted a new D&l Bill in 2000. Under the new law, a new Authority with wide powers over drainage, irrigation, and flood control actvibes is entrusted with the task of promoting the involvement of water users, local govemments, and the private sector in D&I actvities. Furthermore, responsibility is delegated to Water Users' Associations to provide services for the management, operation, and maintenance of the drainage and irrigation system, as well as flood control. In addition, Govemment will ensure an adequate and fair representation of water users and regional Governments on the Board of the new D&I Authority.
In the medium to long term, Govemment will implement Phase Ill of the MMA D&l systems between the Abary and
43 THE GUYMAA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Mahaica rivers, develop the Mahaicony Conservancy, and rehabilitate the Black Bush Polder and other regional drainage and inigation schemes. Additionally, the Canje River will be dammed to facilitate improvements in flood control. The completion of these projects will bring over 600,000 acres of arable land under cultivation.
d) Rural electrification Guyana's electricity system is relatively small, with about 90 megawatts of installed capacity and a peak load of 67 megawatts. The system provides services to about 60 percent of the population, mostly along the coast. In 1999, the Govemment privatised the Guyana Electricity Corporation (GEC). The new company, Guyana Power & Light Com- pany (GPL), is owned jointly by aconsortium consisting of the Commonwealth Development Corporation of the United Kingdom, the Electricity Supply Board of Ireland and the Govemment of Guyana. GPL is under a private management contract.
GPL's business plan for 2001-05 includes investments in the order of US$93 million and emphasis on rehabilitation and expansion of generation capacity by about 40 megawatts, interconnection of its three separate systems, rein- forcement of the transmission and distribution networks, and connection of new customers. Although GPL's expan- sion program allocates US$5 million for rural electrification of under-served areas, this is inadequate to meet unmet demand.
In recognition of this, Govemment will provide resources to expand and provide electricity to rural communities. Specifically, distribution lines will be extended by approximately 40,000 connections, mainly in the coastal regions close to existing distribution grids. Least cost solutions will be applied and subsidies to consumers will be limited to a portion of investment costs, with tariffs fully covering operation and maintenance costs. Towards this end, studies will be done to assess the economic cost of the system (i.e., long-run marginal costs of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution) for different sub-systems, geographic regions, and consumer groups.
At present, little or no information exists on current energy access and use pattems, and the local energy resource endowment of hinterland areas. Thus, resources will be provided to evaluate economically and socio-environmen- tally viable options and requirements and sustainable institutional and financing schemes for hinterland electrifica- tion.
7. Speciallntervention Strategies Although the small sample size of the LCS makes it difficult to provide regional and other comparisons of poverty profiles, secondary sources of information indicate that poverty levels remained the same or showed marginal in- creases in Regions 1,8 and 9,which are mainly populated by Amerindians. InRegion 10, the dependency on bauxite and the prospect of privafisation are likely to increase the current high levels of unemployment. In addition to the general measures that have been proposed for the reduction of poverty, therefore, Govemment will adopt strategies specifically targeted to the unique needs of these regions.
a) The Barima-Waini Proiect, Region 1 A substantial proportion of the population in Region 1falls below the critical poverty line. With a population density of 2.3 and a diverse and scattered settlement pattem, development intervention strategies in Region 1 will be costly. Nevertheless, Govemment will focus on improvements in economic opportunities, infrastructure, education and health as its key strategies in reducing poverty inthis region.
Ineconomic opportunities, extension services will be expanded; nurseries for peanuts developed; an agro-process- ing zone created; and a sawmill established, if economically feasible. In infrastructure, trails and bridges. will be upgraded; water transportation provided; wells constructed; and pumps installed in the main villages. In improving access to health care, emphasis will be placed on the procurement of mobile health vehicles that will visit villages and
44 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER settlements to provide care. Inaddition, the health facility in Kumaka will be upgraded and consideration given to the use of NGOs in providing health services on a commission basis.
Ineducation, emphasis will be placed on training teachers and other educational personnel from local communities and existing facilities will be upgraded to cater for the increased enrolment of nursery and primary students. Given the small population in the region, it will be more cost-effective to grant scholarships to Amerindian students to attend secondary schools in Georgetown. Boarding facilities will therefore be constructed and/or upgraded to house Amerindian students during school periods in Georgetown, as well as at the secondary schools in the regions.
Water transportation will be improved through the acquisition of small boats. This is crucial to assisting communities to transport their produce to markets in Charity.
To involve community participation in the monitoring of these programs, Govemment will work with the RDC and Village Councils to establish District Development Boards to take the lead role in this process.
b) The Region 8 Development Proiect As in Region 1,a substantial proportion of the population in Region 8 falls under the poverty line. With a population density of 0.7, it is very costly for Govemment to undertake infrastructural and other projects to support sustained growth in this region. Though farming and mining are the major occupations, because of the difficult terrain this region is far removed from major economic activities. School enrolment ratios compared to the rest of the country are low; and access to health care is poor. Nevertheless, it is imperative that Govemment develop programs to create opportunities for income-generating activities, while at the same time, improving access to education and health services.
The Region 8 Development Project will consist of five components. These are (i) economic opportunities; (ii) infra- structure; (iii) educafion; (iv)health; and (v)water improvements. Ineconomic opportunites, emphasis will be placed on plant nurseries; land distribution for farming purposes; provision of extension services; and the establishment of a sawmill, if economically feasible. Ininfrastructure, the focus will be on the upgrading of major trails and the rehabili- tation of bridges throughout the region so as to link main Amerindian villages. In addition, Govemment will establish a Hinterland Power Generation Commission to determine, recommend and formulate an electricity plan for hinter- land villages. In education, nursery and primary schools will be rehabilitated and upgraded throughout the region. In addition, consideration will be given to the construction of a secondary school to deal with the overcrowding that is presently experienced in the region.
Inthe health sector, emphasis will be placed on prevention, educabon, and the upgrading of clinics in major settle- ments. In the area of prevention, school facilities will be used to immunise students against MMR, DPT and other infectious diseases. In addition, education will be provided on teenage pregnancy, STIs and HIV/AIDS. The Mahdia Health Centre will be upgraded to facilitate simple medical procedures, laboratory tests, and X-rays. Priority attention will be given to training of personnel to staff health and educational facilities.
To improve access to, and the quality of water, 70 wells will be sunk and 85 water pumps installed inmajor villages and settlements. Amerindians living in local communities will be trained to carry out some of these infrastructural works and to maintain them.
As in Region 1,to involve community participation inthe monitoring of these programs, Govemment will work with the RDC and the Village Councils to establish District Development Boards to take the lead role inthis process.
45 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCnON SCATIGY PAPER
c) Runununi Development Proiect. Region 9 The Rupunini covers about 13,000 square miles of grassland savannahs in Region 9 and boasts a population of about 17,500. This area falls outside of the declared Forest Lands of Guyana. Its administrative centre is Lethem, a town close to the border with Brazil. Prncipal activities include livestock farming, fishing, hunting, and cassava and peanut cultivation. The potential of commercial cashew nut production is now being studied.
The Rupununi Development project has three components. First, it will focus on poverty reduction mainly by connect- ing economic activities in this region to the market economy. In this context, Govemment will consider the feasibility of developing an export-processing zone; resuscitating the St. Ignatius Livestock station; establishing plant nurseries; promoting exploration and exploitation of mineral resources; and supporting skills training. Other key aspects of this objective will be increasing access to health, education, and micro-financing, and developing smail infrastructure. In particular, emphasis will be placed on training local personnel to deliver health, education and other social services. Staffing of health posts and schools is key to improving the quality of services in the region.
The second component will focus on strengthening institutions to better control, plan, and develop the use of natural resources. Human resource development will be the key element. The third component will be the development of the Guyana-Brazil road. This is aimed at developing a corridor from which interior communities have access to the rest of Guyana. In addition, Government will work with the Brazilian authorities to strengthen border controls and address other security issues.
Implementation of the Rupununi project will create thousands ot jobs in construction, plantation farming, livestock development, mining and manufacturing. In addition, it will make it easier to post health, education and social sector workers to the region to facilitate training and improve the delivery of services.
To support project implementation, Govemment will work with the RDC to build on the work of the North Rupununi District Development Board. Towards this end, two more district development boards (DDB) will be established. Specifically, the DDBs will mobilise community participafion in their areas of jurisdiction to develop programs in collaboration with the RDCs and Village Councils.
d) Linden Economic Advancement Proiect, Region 10 Linden, in Region 10, a town with a population of over 35,000 people, was developed as a result of bauxite mining that prospered until the 1970s. However, adverse conditions in extemal markets and mismanagement of the bauxite operations contributed to a decline in production and the loss of market share. In 1991, the then Govemment signed a private management contract to run the operations of LINMINE. This resulted in the downsizing of employment from over 3,300 to about 1,400 workers. Since 1992, Govemment has been providing subsidies to maintain the operations of the mines and its workforce.
Although the OMAI gold mine, which came into operation in 1994, absorbed over 900 of LINMINE's retrenched workers, it is most unlikely that this high rate of labour absorption will continue. Indeed OMAI has already begun the rationalisation and contraction of its work force. Meanwhile, LINMINE has been offered for sale as part of the Govemments privatisation program. However, the Govemment continues to find it difficult to find a private buyer or a strategic investor. To mitigate the impact of these developments on the population, particularly in Linden and its environs, the Govemment will implement the Linden Economic Advancement Project (LEAP) in 2001.
LEAP, when completed, will revitalise the economy of Region 10. The core activities of the project include the establishment of a business development unit (BDU) for 'hand holding" assistance; the development of a business incubator for start-up operations; the establishment of the Linden Economic Advancement Fund for revolving micro- credits; an inward investment facility to attract local and foreign investment; the delivery of technical and management training; the development of local capacity for economic planning, project design and implementation; and develop-
46 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER ment of economic infrastructure, including roads, to support growth.
The successful implementation of these components of the project will assist the local private sector in creating and expanding businesses; and through infrastructure development and technical training, encourage new investments and the opening up of economic opportunities. The project is expected to create over 1,000 jobs and train over 1,500 persons in marketable skills.
Inaddifion, Govemment will develop new housing areas in Region 10 and work towards the resolution of the electrcity problems currently affectng the region. This is apriority area, as the success of LEAP and the privatisation of LINMINE depend on a reliable supply of energy. Further, the region, in particular its riverain communities, will benefit from the Government's water access program with the construcfion of wells in many communitfes.
e) Sustaininq the rural economy and competina in global markets The development of agro-industrial estates is premised on the following factors. First,.estates provide the ideal catalyst for accelerating the development of value-added products; and second, sustained improvements in income levels in rural areas are dependent on the speed with which. outputs in key productive sectors are processed and packaged for intemational markets. Therefore, to establish a linkage between rural economies and the export market, and to stimulate increased value-added production, Govemment will establish industial estates in Regions 2,3 and 6 to advance the processing of local raw materials for exports. The development of these estates will yield several benefits. It will (i) provide markets for local raw materials and sustained income for rural farmers; (ii)minimise the mismatch between supply and demand of inputs; (iii) generate over 15,000 jobs in rural and interior areas; and (iv) reduce rural-urban migration. Inaddition, it will increase demand for secondary school places, and for accelerated development of technicalVvocational institutes and skills and leadership training.
47 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTON STRATGY PAPER
C. Comparison of I-PRSP and PRSP after Public Consultations To the extent possible, recommendations from the public consultations have been incorporated into the PRSP. Table 4.2 provides a comparison of the l-PRSP and the PRSP.
Table 4.2: Comparison of I-PRSP and PRSP Strategy, Pqlicy and Program Strategy, Policy or Program Issue I-PRSP PRSP Targets inStrategy Government will... maintain sound Institutonal and regulatory issues added togrowth Revised -Growth macroeconomic, trade and investment target, some of which had previously been in framework govemancesection
Targets inStrategy Improve business environment Replaced by strengthened dialogue between the New target Govemance political parties, improved public accountability, justice administration reforms, and promoting fundamental rights and rule of law
Policy & Program No mention of local government Govemment wi strengthen Regional Development New -Govemance changes Councils (RDC), Neighborhood Development Councils (NDC), support regional offices, decentralise some services such as issuance of biht/deathwificates, passports, houselots&fies, export facilitation
Policies to Stmulate Good govemance discussed public Public service modernization described and text Revised Growth -Public sector sedorreforn in terms of matrices and updated with recent actions such as eliminating Reform redundancies redundancies
Policy & Program - Procurement legislation to be laid in National Assembly passed law. Govemment will Updated Reforming Procurement National Assembly estabish Public Poudremnent Commission and lay new Tender and Procurement Bill
Program -Expanding and Componentsof diversification more Expanding and diversifying economic base New Diversifying Economic narrowly defined rfocused to include restucturing traditional sector, Base new product lines, reorienting public agencies to support private sector development
Program Sugar modemisation suggested Modemisation ot sugar sector defined more Updated -Restructuring Sugar
Program -New Product Highlighted policies imp[emented Exploitation of mineral resources discussed New Lines and Exploration of Mineral Resources
Program -Information & No mention of ICT ICT agenda defined induding greaterconnectivity New Communications and e-Govemment Technology (ICT)
Program -Private Sector Business environment improved Systemic support to private sector development Updated &new Promotion including export promotion, investment promotion, restructuring of companies, and development of small business and cottage industries. Provision of greaterautonomy toGOlNVEST and establishment of a Revolving Fund
48 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Strategy, Policy or = Program Issue I-PRSP PRSP Program -Development Facilitating credittosmall business More emphasis on support to small business New and Expansion of Small through: simplifying regulabons goveming cottage Businesses and Cottage industries creation, improving registation, new bills Industry to acelerate expansion of small businesses, credit and training for IPED and Grameen-type program, prce and marketing information and technical support for small businesses
Program-Agricultural Not emphasised Agricultural technology concentrated on farmers in New Technology D&l area along with regularisation of land tenure and better land and water management
Program -Agricultural Calls for greateremphasis on Attaches extension services to improved D&l and Additional Extension extension inagriculture maintenance of farm-to-market roads
Program -Manufacturing Not emphasised Technical assistance to local industries inquality New control, packaging and management skills
Policy and Program Emphasis did not indude these Underutilised medical facilities will be closed to New -Health Facilities, concerns enable more health posts established, more Personnel and HIV/AIDS emergency equipmentand ambulances and totating medical professionals inremote areas
Improving conditions of serviceand non-pecuniary New inoentives for medical personnel. AJso, recruitment of social works for education for preventable diseases
HIVWAIDS comprehensive strategy to be prepared Revised by Govemment and donors, program emphasis on STI database, more social workers, drugs, more public awareness and rehabilitabon of AIDS ward at GPH and Mahaica Hospital
Program -Education Emphasis on schools Targeted subsidies including textbooks and New Support to Poor vouchers for textbooks, exam costs, and other Households education-rated costs
Program-HousingFunds Notmentioned Low income Housing Revolving Fund for New and Infrastructure competitive bidding for family units and housing infrastructure for new housing schemes
Rural Electrificalion Not mentoned Expand electdricity to rural areas New
Special Intervention Unden, housing scheme New Stategies Region 1,determining feasibility of asawmill, and New upgrading Kumaka health facility as well as dormitories insecondary schools inregions
Rupununi development prqect revised on basis of Revised Region 9plan developed during consultations to include livestock station, plant nurseries, mineral exploitation and skills training
Region 8plan added new oomponent for economic Revised opportunities to indude plant nurseries, land distrtbution for farming and more extension services. Also feasibility study for sawmill.
49 1HE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCnON STRATEGY PAPER
THE MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK 5 iAND BUDGETARY IMPLICATIONS FOR PRIORITY ACTIONS
This Chapter contains the budgetary framework of resource requirements associated with the priority actions defined in Chapter 4.The estimates to implement the action plan for poverty reduction are presented in the context of long- term macroeconomic and overall public expenditure frameworks, taking into account the expected availability of resources over the period 2002 to 2010. To implement the poverty program, the Govemment will undertake a pro- gramming exercise with a 5-year time horizon and annual revisions reflecting updated projectons of the macroeco- nomic framework and the global economy, and any adjustments that may be required. A. Economic Growth Prospects An important factor inthe successful implementation of the poverty program will be the creation of an economic policy framework conducive to restoring the intemational compefitiveness of the domestic economy, generating sustained growth, creating employment and protecting the environment. As a result, Guyana's 10-year baseline macroeco- nomic framework is based on the continuation of sound policies, deepened structural reforms, the pursuit of an ambitious social development agenda, in particular, in education and health, and the creation of job opportunities. It also takes into account a significantly less favourable extemal environment and a challenging domestic political situaton. Based on this scenario, its main elements are summarised below: * Average real GDP growth rate is projected at about 4 percent a year in 2002-06 and about 6.1 percent a year thereafter. Growth in the production of traditional crops is expected to pick up with the recovery of the agricultural sector due to increased production of sugar and rice. Growth in the non-traditional sectors, especially light manufacturing, expansion in gold and timber production, and development of new export- oriented industries will provide the impetus for continued high growth inthe outer years.3 * Expansion inconstruction activity will be the key catalyst over this period as large investment projects are implemented. Investment by the public sector is projected to be particularly robust during 2002-05 because of the restructuring of the sugar sector and the sharp increase in the public investment pro- gram. Private sector investment is projected to increase sharply, principally in connection with new mining and timber projects to replace existing ones and the development of new growth areas such as ICT. As these projects are very capital-intensive, especially in the initial years, the improvement in the overall GDP growth rate is expected to lag somewhat. * The wage bill will be limited to the expected rate of inflation and productivity increases. * Inflation is projected to average about 5.3 percent per year during 2002-06, reflecting a moderate easing of monetary policy in support of the growth objectives. Thereafter, inflation is projected to grow at 5 percent on average over 2006-10. * Interest on domestic debt at G$3.9 billion or 2.8 percent of GDP is siphoning off much-needed re- sources to implement poverty reduction programs. However, between 2002 and the end of 2005, this debt, which now stands at G$32 billion or 23.4 percent of GDP, will be reduced by G$12 billion, taking into account monetary policy.
3 See Chapter 4.
50 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
* In addition, the medium-temm macroeconomic framework incorporates estimates for the structural reforms envisaged inthe public service, the bauxite sector and the sale of the govemment-owned bank, GNCB. * The volume of exports is projected to grow at about 3.3 percent during 2002-06 and, thereafter, at an average annual rate of about 4 percent in the outer years, reflecting strong growth in the primary sectors of sugar, rice, gold, Uimber, and non-traditonal exports. * Import growth is projected at 5.2 percent between 2002 and 2006, attributable to the large public sector investment, including the restructuring and modemisation of GUYSUCO. After the completon of many of these key projects, growth in imports is projected to decline to 2 percent in 2010. * Net private transfers are projected to remain constant in real terms, while services are projected to benefit from lower interest payments and expansion intravel and communications services arising from eco-tourism activities.
Public savings are pro- jected to increase from -3.1 percent of GDP in Table 5.1: Guyana - Selected Economic and Financial Indicators 2001 to 8.8 percent of GDP in 2006 and, thereafter, to steadily in- 335 4 1.3 l.5 3.8 4.3 48 50 7.0 crease to 12.2 percent N=W GOP ,sdgcPpics) 5.1 5.3 7.8 7. 8 8.1 10.8 7.1 of GDP in 2010. Apart GcDp,,rc* 3.6 51 4.4 3.3 4.0 4.1 5. 44 6.1 15 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.0 S0 50 from generabng the re- C n, (wdopard) 5.8 4.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.0 5.0S. sources for the domes- RI'-- 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.8 7.9 8.2 102 tic component of in- E""w`-"(Vdne) -Z9 4.5 0.3 33 4.1 4.8 4.2 17 W"fcbdG compofenl*mt) olob m- .1.0 3.5 7.4 &I 81 12 1.3 Z0 vestment, the re- (InpurdUoGDP) strained growth of pub- I 22.3 230 30.9 33 3ZS 30.4 26.2 28.8 lic consumption envi- PsN* 8.5 9.7 1.1 1.5 128 1.5 1Z3 1S1 sioned in the strategy 1uku 13.8 13.3 18.8 20.8 18.8 17.9 1198 11.7 7.0 10 8to 7.5 83 7.9 7.2 148 will also be necessary 985 81 8.3 8 1 1.5 2.0 -1.8 Z 4 to establish and main- P,*ic.tr 0.5 -&I .3 1.3 4.7 5. 8. 12.2 Etan vam.oEa nrbmutbm -153 -20.0 -23.0 -258 -262 -n8 -19.0 -1Z3 tamn viable macroeco- t ,.i~ nomic balances. As P.6k.Sd. implementation of tR""" 348 49 5 54 35. 37S 37.2 352 sound policies contin- cuju 34.6 35.8 337 33.5 312 300 29.7 24.0 capitm 138 133 1&8 2308 19.9 17.9 119 11.7 ues, gross investment is Sa*" o.s -4I .03 1.3 47 5.9 8. 15.2 pmjecedt gmw rom u8m.I usssguul) -13.8 -1it5 -18.1 -18.5 -15.3 -12.0 -4.4 0.5 projected to grow from °mu~~sgGranisR PC r. 7.7 9.4 l09 1085 8.8 9.2 488 t8o 23 percent of GDP in Odce(9ar ns) 4.0 -7.1 -8.2 -.0 -5.4 -98 22 10 NM - bock ~~~~5865.3 7.2 8.5 8.8 5.9 1.5 to8 2001 to 26.2 percentof N 4=b 85 18 10 45 -91.5 92 47 -Z9 GDP in 2006. Public fr dbt mm thbgd yr investment will take the *bn-wac-a(andwpd) Farudnae*osdolft8nk4kgs,r 4.8 8U3 &1 0.0 5.8 9 17.B 4. lead role, with private Pk(MO 1.1 1.8 4,5 48 -Z4 1.2 -0.1 -12 sector investment 38 834.5 to3 8.8 82 87 17.8 8.4 catching up by 2003. E Table 5.1 presents se- Oi-uss dwu("COP 984 40 4- 44 48 -Z5 4.4 -1.8 IpMW.(nuus) 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 19 40 9 lected key economic ,i,,A,KI indicators over the me- wGm(Gs) 130.012 13897 147.304 158,332 172,312 188,042 208.033 31Z417 dium term. SaC ad
51 THE GUYAA POVERTY RtDUCnON STRATEGY PAPER
B. Maintaining External Viability
An integral element of the long-term economic strategy is maintenance of a viable balance of payments. Based on the assumptions outlined above, the extemal current account deficit (excluding official transfers) will rise sharply from 20 percent of GDP in 2001 to an average 23.4 percent of GDP between 2002 and 2006. This reflects the high import content of the public investment program. By 2010, the deficit of the current account balance will decline to 12 percent of GDP.
The capital account is projected to improve due to increases in extemal flows, including program loans and grants in the ealy years. Project borrowing is expected to increase sharply during 2002-06. However, program loans are projected to decline precipitously in 2004. The terms on new financing are expected to be highly concessional (mostly on IDA terms). Because of the continued vulnerability of the economy to extemal shocks over the medium term and the amortization of extemal debt, gross intemational reserves will be maintained at about 4 months of imports of goods and non-factor services during 2002 to 2006. Table 5.2 provides a summary of the balance of payments over the medium to long term.
Table 5.2: Guyana - Balance of Payments (in millions of US dollars)
Current account (excl. official transfers) .109.1 .146.3 .176.0 -206.1 .220.8 .201.4 *182.7 .158.2 Merchandise trade (net) -80.2 -98.1 -131.4 -162.8 .81.7 .165.4 .146.6 -127.0 Services (net) .76.0 .94.2 .92.9 -93.6 -92.0 -92.1 .96.6 9.0 Capibl and financial account 137.8 124.4 125.1 155.3 165.2 179.3 149.3 130.2 Non-financial pubfc sector(net) 59.0 89.9 87.1 108.3 85.2 85.3 453 32.2 Overall balance 67.1 .22 -51 -51 -56 .22 -32 *23 Financing -67.1 22 51 51 56 22 32 23 BOG netforeign asseis 461.7 -1.9 -20.8 -20.7 -1.9 -24.1 -31.7 -18. Change in NFPS arrears 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exceptional financing -5.4 32.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 23.0 14.8 Overall financing cap 010 S.2 46.6 46 5 2 2t1. 41.1 27.0 Remaining gap 0.0 t5.8 46.6 46.5 32.5 21.1 431 37.0 Gap to be filled by E-HIPC 0.0 15.9 30.0 30.0 30.9 29.2 31.7 25.1 Remainin canlaDsunott forthePRSI 0.0 .0.1 166 16.5 1.6 -8.1 11.4 11.9
SourceGovemment ol Guyana
11in 1998,Guyana received a debt stOckreduclion on Napls termsfrom PartsClub Creddors. inckhdmg Trinidad and Tobago. In 1999,e. namecrditors provideda turtherdebt stock reducton on Lyons terms. For 1999l inIaummed that Non-Partis Cbub bilateral redtor prmidesimilar debt reel. 21 Debtforgivenes oatfuture maturites i presented as a capitoltransfer amd debt forgiveness of arrearsend current maturibes is capteredunder exe ptonal financing. 31 Importsof goods and noniactor nerie s
1) The Extemal Financing Requirements While the policies adopted should boost export prospects and contribute to the strengthening of the balance of payments, attainment of the objectives stated above will require substantial assistance to augment domestic resource mobilisabion. As shown in Table 5.3, gross extemal financing requirements are projected to amount to US$1.4 billion over 5 years or about US$272 million a year during 2002-06, if intemational reserves are maintained at 4 months of import cover. Available financing will amount to US$905 or US$181 million over the same period. This will leave a financing gap of US$456 million or US$91 million per year. About US$288 million of the gap will be financed through debt restructuring, projected IMF purchases and concessional financing from IDA. In spite of this, between 2002 and 2006, the Govemment will have to secure extra financing of US$170 million to meet its poverty reduction targets. This large gap, particulady in 2005 and 2006, is attributable to phasing out of program loans from IDB and IMFand large repurchases to the IMF.
52 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Table 5.3! Guyana -External Financing Requirements, 2002X10 (in millions of US dollars)
Finandng requiremerns 223 257 281 285 315 247 External currnt account Cunentacount Defict(netofofcidattransfers) 176 206 248 230 211 176 NFPS anrtization 26 30 31 31 72 52 BOG amrtoization -8 -9 -8 24 22 9 of which: IMF 19 18 15 12 9 0 Gvss reserves (mcrease= +) 29 30 10 0 10 10 Avaiabtlefinandng 139 174 185 199 208 164 Oflcial transfers 29 29 27 28 28 18 NFPS toans 1/ 55 79 74 72 72 48 Plivate sector (net) 21 38 47 80 94 103 93 Pnogramtbans 17 19 4 4 4 4 Financ,ng gap 84 83 96 86 107 83 Net exceptional finanrng 67 67 68 41 45 38 Debt restructurlng 30 30 31 29 32 25 Debt relief 31 30 30 31 29 32 25 IMFPRGF (estmated) 25 25 25 0 0 0 IDAPRSC(Estimated) 12 12 12 12 13 13 Remaintnggaptofilled byPRS 17 16 29 45 63 45 Menorandum ttms: Import Cover Ratio (months) 4 4 4 4 4 4 Curmnt account (inmpeent GDP) -23 -26 -26 -23 -19 -12 uwe (U.S. otlrs) nit (til u4Z b t U1 1291
Soures: Govnment of Guyana 1/Exdudes multatera and btWa bance ofpayments supporl and inctuden shortoteon capital flow 21ncdudes netbslgn invest strrHmn cests, changesinnet toeeeep assets ofcow oa banks, aid enrs andomibas ol e banc ofpaymen 31EnhancOd debt riee. The financing gaps could be closed either by anficipated extemal support from bilateral and multilateral insttutions or reduction in the size of the poverty reduction program. Since the reduction of this program will not help Guyana to achieve its poverty reduction targets, Govemment will seek increased access to concessional financing from the multilateral and bilateral donors. C. The Resource Envelope 2002-10
Implementation of the poverty program, including programs and projects now being canied out, will cost US$3.9 billion over 10 years or about US$390 million per year. Of this amount, about US$3 billion or 75 percent will come from domestc sources while the remainder will be extemally financed. This suggests the need to double current revenues over the 10-year period.
However, between 2002 and 2006, total resources required to implement the poverty program will amount to $2.1 billion or $420 million ayear. Of this, $670.8 million or $134.2 million per year will come from extemal financing. Thus, unless additional extemal financing is secured the Govemment will have to carry about three-quarters of the cost of its poverty program. This means that mobilisabon of additional domestic and extemal financing is a must. This is crucial especially given the anticipated reducbon in official grants and the phasing out of program loans in 2004. In this regard, resources from budgetary revenues will remain high at 35.2 percent of GDP4.
4 This represents the highest rato of revenue to GDP of all HIPC counties.
53 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCnON STRATEGY PAPER
The effort to mobilise revenues will include comprehensive reform of the tax system so as to substantially increase revenues beginning in 2004. In 2002, a tax study will be undertaken to identify ways to broaden the base, while in 2003, the findings of the study will be taken to public consultabons and a program of action developed for implementabon by 2004. The second component to mobilise revenues will focus on strengthening the capacity of tax authorities through the recruitment and training of staff. The actons to be carried are outlined in Chapter 4.
Specifically, with regard to domestic resources, the Government will be guided by a policy of non-recourse to the banking system to finance budget deficits. In addition, it will lower the high budgetary costs of Treasury Bill operatfons by buying back these bonds as soon as possible, taking into account prevailing monetary policies.
Table 5.4: Guyana -Poverty Reduction Budget Strategy (in rmilofls ot us doliars)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010 Total Budget Resources 348.0 367.3 402.3 433.5 429.7 428.0 406.0 485.6 Domestic Resources 250.0 251.0 263.4 274 2 288.7 292.5 309.9 390.4 Extemal Resources 98.0 116.3 138.9 159.3 141.0 135.5 96.1 95.2
Use of Resources 344.7 358.8 402.3 433.5 429.7 428.0 406.9 460.5 Current 246.4 261.6 258.3 267.5 262.2 268.0 273.2 309.4 Non-Interest 180.6 197.2 200.8 212.9 210.4 218.2 209.2 245.7 Capital 98.3 97.2 144.0 166.1 167.5 160.0 133.7 151.1 Resource Gap 3.3 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.0) 25.1 Memorandum Items Total Resources as a perent of GDP 48.9 50.3 52.5 54A 51.1 47.9 42.2 37.6 Realgrmwthinresouroes 2.9 4.4 3.6 (6.1) (6.1) (11.9) (1.3) Public Investrnentto GDP 13.8 13.3 18.8 20.8 19.9 17.9 13.9 11.7 Public Consumption to GDP 24.7 24.7 24.1 24.1 23.7 23.3 19.1 15.8 Public Savings to GDP 0.5 (3.1) (0.3) 1.3 4.7 5.9 8.8 12.2 GDP mnp(USS) 712.1 730.7 766.8 797.4 841.5 892.8 961.1 1290.7
Sourme:Gomermnent of Guyana
The resource envelope presented in Table 5.4 is based on the long-term macroeconomic framework described above. It also incorporates key assumptions in the budget policy and other important sectors of the economy (mon- etary and extemal sectors), information on the likely timing of large projects, and the most recent forecast of the global economic environment.
1) Resource Allocation for the Poverty Action Plan: 2002-06 It is important for resources to be allocated to priority sectors that will generate growth and reduce poverty. rnonmy allocation of resources takes three factors into account: * First, aggregate allocabons take into consideration ongoing donor and govemment interventions and capacity and institutonal constraints. Weight is thus given to priority recommendations from public consultations, and the systemic interventions that will impact significantly on poverty reducton. * Second, costng for program actvites is based on historical cost pattems, adjusted for inflation and exchange rate changes. It should be noted that implementation of many of the program activibes is ongoing, either through donor assistance or Central Govemment financing. * Third, large projects included in the Govemment's budget are donor-funded. Therefore, as included in the budget, they take into account cost benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments.
54 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCnON STRATEGY PAPER
Yet, within the context of competing needs, there are compelling reasons for the allocation of resources to a number of priority sectors. Tables 5.5 and 5.6 provide a summary of priority allocations in the medium term.
(i) The allocation to support institutional and capacity building within the private sector is justified by its possible impact on job creation and therefore on poverty reduction. As noted earlier, the private sector in Guyana is nascent and unless support is given, it may be difficult to generate the required investments and secure the growth targets set forth in the medium term.
More important, such support will complement assistance given to the sector by donor agencies such as the European Union, USAID, and CIDA.
(ii) Ingood govemance, the allocation is justified by the need to implement the provisions of the Constitutional reforms and build checks and balances so as to create confidence in the political and economic systems.
(iii) The allocation to economic infrastructure is justified by the need to support rural and hinterland communi- ties that depend on drainage and irrigation, farm-to-market roads and improved sea defences to maintain and sustain their livelihoods. The allocation will complement other infrastructure investments from donor agencies such as the IDB, Table 5.5 - Guyana Budgeted Capital Spending in Priority Sectors CDB and the European 0 1 ) Union and create opportu- nities for rural and hinterland
2DDD ZOt am02 2Wo3 2m4 DO communities to increase TdC56PIhICSdJIQ1V 17,Nos 18,27.6 27,6712 32,97&1 3423.4 AMA production and generate AD=N=1rPftt 9.5m 1,172.4 28a35U2 21.18V ArA3 2 additional income. Pv.t,TaWCq Pnm 533 853 73J6 62 K82 707 Eccc 3,309.7 4383.8 11.474.3 11.92&0 12,926.0 13,44.1 Arm" 1,141L9 1,291.2 7,67ao 7,577.4 8,2154 8,3ssa (iv) The allocation to the so- Ekn-S'At s.9 101.0 231.4 239.2 2417 2558 DwqsarhW- 1.001 18.o8 1.Ja1 1,8707 V1iz9 z2187 cial sectors is justified by the hizbW Esfts ~~~48.054.2 22.2 77.0 291. 310.8 o m AqE*au 19.0 41.0 29&4 1025 107.1 Iii.7 urgency of the need to im- a"WLRhA**Q - 54405D s070.o s501a0 8521.o prove access to and the T,wtdpal S,,~~mDa% IMa 2,441 3.301.8 3,8.9 4,237.5 45720 RMmdS&l 1'383531.0 354.4 21.4 884.4 14701.4 1,114 quality of essential services r4*V 08 95a0 4314 474 4911 536 such as water, health, edu- PAh.hTAfia d S_ODd- 1,1.4 1.56.O 1,6972 183=4 Z356.8 221&.8 1.2 18so lOll 2119 231.8 234 cation and housing, espe- *T,WMWdS 2312 2s12 38.7 4018 4348 401s cially for communities in dis- Pw%"Aamii 4 -kft 357.0 6 5zo 4045 4348 4712 51a. s Sodd 6.2559 &71.6 8.438.1 5729.6 9,1431 9.M5 tant coastal and hinterland H.W" 41&9 .297.0 1,1117 1,2W11 1.13U3 31.W locations. This allocation is &WEft12hA&HDW .57.6 99.3 1024 1053 How Cali 75.6 400 4507 481.3 . =312 5727 all the more justified by the FM,G~r~0- fuIJ 11.0 510 2%19 2902 81. 89.2 fnig P4soW.doaMg-Hw 13.0 181.0 147.3 151.3 17253 1&08 finding that the incidence of E1xgm3,747.0 4,045.9 4.* 4,741.9 3156.4 ~ 60%0 poverty is higher in many of ok1dWDktdT40As 11,1 &1 MaD 116 14.8 11.1 these communities. lti~dTalrn9tm7080* 17.0 718 153.7 194 25 2141 "AkW"Pmw=-Ed--~ 711.0 797.0 731.5 833 682 75sz2 KUwardHxdg 28x 451.8 17212 27726 X6543 X8814 As mentioned above, de- FW WdVA96I0dsm 477.0 541.1 751.8 8192 87. 91 spite progress that has s hipauiu9 1910 61.3 311. 3313 3787 49.7 the H b-f8dw*=t 4812 5610 7910 893 8s8. 971. beenmadeinpovertyreduc- P*,"Aft",Roma-V44q 151. 5410 147.3 158.3 177.3 188o
Spealalfl1W0Pd" 1729 219A 2252 252.7 tion over the last several I Dkrats0i 96.1 1111 12a9 1474 years, the incidence of pov- 71.9 88.3 1044 1053 atul*v P0w wvwnx" erty remained high in three 6h188al88uViW0i 298.u 317.7 m3uo au regions, namely, Regions 1, S-G -ddo'". 8 and 9. This means that ei-
1/NwA,F,,,Aj, ther these regions did not ex-
55 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRAnGY PAPER
perence similar growth rates to Table 5.6: Guyana - Budgeted Recurrent Spending inPriority Sectors those of the other regions, and/ or their unique characteristics require innovative ways of reduc- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ing poverty. InRegion 10, as out- Total Recurrent Pubile Spendingll 32,978.7 36.960.5 38,577.8 42,261.8 43,077.0 45,980.8 Allocations to Priority sectors 12,554.7 13,968.9 17,778.5 21,863.4 22,041.9 23,981.5 lined above,lined ththeaove, situafonsituation is ddif_ Percent of Total Recu rrent 38.1 37.8 45.1 51.7 51.2 52.2 ferent. It is clear that restructur- Eeonomlc 143.4 151.5 546.7 591.6 824.9 881.4 ing or sale of the bauxite factory Business Suppon Services 143.4 151.5 546.7 5916 824.9 8814 Go-invest 46.5 40.1 110.4 116.2 143.6 151.6 will create major dislocatons for Private Sector Commission - - 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.1 workers. To deal with this situa- Revolving Fund . 230 5 238.3 266.2 294.9 Land Reform(LSC) 52.0 55.7 97.3 103.0 191.8 201.6 tion, LEAP will minimise the im- Bureau of Standards 449 55.7 09.3 114.2 2028 2124 pact of the sale and/or restruc- socIal 12,333.0 13,719.0 16,778.1 20,759.5 20,682.7 22,523.6 Health 4,584.0 4,934.0 6,135.0 6,396.0 7,058.3 7,683.1 turing of the bauxite factory. Drugsmaterials and supplies 1,142.0 1,120.0 1,774.2 1,B87.1 2,086.9 2.262 5 Maintenance 354.0 376.0 554 8 590.0 673 9 722.6 Training 127.2 119.4 240.2 254.2 311.9 352.5 Extemat Medical Treatment 40.0 40.0 256.6 108.3 114.4 121.0 Education 7,102.0 8,180.0 9,314.5 9.899.9 10,989.3 12,083 2 Teaching Supplies 291.0 364.0 617.9 652.2 754.3 863 2 Textbooks 614.7 655.2 675 7 737.2 Maintenance 355.0 344.0 613.5 571.3 798.1 892.6 Training 21 153.7 158.8 204.8 252 7 Targeted Subsidies 961 119 1 143 3 1685 Water and Housing 647.0 605.0 1.328 6 1,463.0 1.615.1 1.757.2 Materials and Supplies ...... 249.7 258 1 266.2 294.9 Maintenance ...... 345.8 417.0 491.4 526.6 D. Costing of Social lmpactAlleviation 3,080.0 1,0000 10000 Governance 78.3 98.4 453.7 512.3 554.3 576.6 Program s in LocalGovemment 78.3 98.4 184.9 194.6 206.2 218.6 Partiamentary Select Committee - * 76.8 99.3 102.4 105.3 Judicial Reform . 134.5 139.0 163.8 1685 PriorI i1ty> Human Rights andJusbce 57.6 79.4 81.9 042
Sectors Source.Gonemmrent ofGuyana Iv ContralGovemment Non-lntore.t Unit costing of priority programs is presented in Annex 5. Examples of how estimates of costs were arived at are as follows:
* In determining the unit cost of extension services, provision was made for a package which would effectvely carry out program targets, comprising (i) the critcal mass of extension officers necessary to carry out extension work; (ii) minimum wages for the extension officers; (iii) transportation services; (iv) rehabilitation of quarters for extension services; and (v) materials and supplies.
* In the case of drainage and irrigafion, the cost of 1000 feet of D&I maintenance work was used to calculate the amount of work that could be carried out in D&I rehabilitabon.
* To arrive at the unit cost of textbooks, the minimum number of textbooks required per student per grade was multiplied by the total number of students in the school system to calculate the total resources required to meet the goal of providing textbooks for students. However, given the binding resource constraints, these numbers were significantly pared down, while allocabon was provided to rehabilitate the Ministry of Educa- tion printery to begin the local development and printng of basic textbooks and exercise books, except books that have to be imported.
To the extent possible, the same rationale was used in calculating the .unit cost of priority programs.
56 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Guyana's poverty reduction program represents a major thrust in the Govemment's development agenda for the medium term, Successes in attaining the program targets will depend on effective implementation, monitoring and coordination. A. Implementation of the Poverty Program
The institutional framework of the implementation of the poverty pro- gram will rest on four pillars. The first pillar will be the Central Govem- ment, with emphasis on line ministries and agencies; the second, the Regional Democratic Councils; the third, the Neighbourhood Demo- cratic Councils; and the fourth, the Village Councils5. At the core of IMPLEMENTATION, implementation will be the development of a multi-year poverty action plan based on the PRSP. The poverty program will also include several mOnITORING" issues that were addressed at the public consultations but not included AND inthe final PRSR 1. The Role of Govemment COuORDINATION The involvement of communities inplanning, monitoring and coordinat- ing development programs is crucial to the successful implementation of the PRSR In the past, the two main agencies involved in poverty pro- grams in Guyana, the Social Impact Ameliorafion Program (SIMAP) and the Basic Needs Trust Fund (BNTF), adopted bottom-up approaches with broad-based parficipafion in the design and implementation of pov- erty programs. Specifically, these agencies, at the request of communi- ffes or of NGOs acting on behalf of communities, provided grant funds for projects in a wide range of sectors in all regions. Communities con- tributed 25 percent of the cost of the projects, usually in the form of labor, and many of the grants were oriented to the constructfon or rehabilitation of infrastructure.
Through this strategy, SIMAP and BNTF were able to reach several regions and localities where the poor live. Despite these achievements, targefing continues to be a real problem, particularly in interior regions. The difficulty in relation to interior regions reflects higher transportafton and transactions costs and other problems of implementing and main- taining projects in Amerindian communities.
The Govemment will build on the strengths of SIMAP and BNTF to reach the poor. To this end, SIMAP Ill will be implemented to accelerate initiatives to reduce poverty and the poverty map will be revised to take account of the 1999 Living Conditions Survey and the 2002 population census. Greater autonomy will be given to NDCs and Village Councils to
5 The idea of Village Councils, where oommunlles choose their laders on a non-partsan basis, will be part of the koal govemment reform program that will be proposed to Padiament
57 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER formulate and implement projects up to a given threshold. Close collaboration will also be forged between project participants, technical advisors and funding agencies to improve the development of community responsibility and to discourage extemal donor dependence.
Inaddition, line ministries will be responsible for the implementation of their programs, and emphasis will therefore be placed on institutional and capacity building within ministries in the context of the Thematic Groups (see below).
2. Role of Amerindians in Community Development Since 1993, several initiatives have been taken to integrate Amerindians into the mainstream of natonal life. Among these were the establishment of the Ministry of Amerindian Affairs and the creation of the Amerindian Development Fund. In addition, the Amerindian Skills in Community Development project was launched in 1994 to promote sustainable development in selected Amerindian communities by increasing their capacity to identify, formulate, manage, monitor, and evaluate sustainable community development actvities and projects.
The project was undertaken after careful research and used a participatory research approach which enabled Amerindians not only to conduct the actual surveys but also to contribute to their design and the analysis of the data collected. Govemment will build on this progress and involve the fuller participabon of Amerindians in the develop- ment of their communities. As part of this, Govemment, through SIMAP l1l, will finance small projects designed and implemented by Amerindian communities, based on specific eligibility criteria and operating regulations.
3. Empowering Communities Local govemment elections will take place in 2002. The reforms under the local govemment law will allow commu- nities to directly choose their representatives. These elected officials will play a key role inthe planning, implementa- tion and monitoring of projects within their communities. To support the work of local councillors and engender actve community participation in village affairs, provision will be made for the establishment of committees on public works, environment and sanitabon, drainage and irrigaton, educabon, water and health.
Inaddition, local councils will be strengthened to increase tax collection and improve management of their resources so as to complement Central Govemment spending in these communities. Towards this end, Govemment will support institutions and agencies involved in adult educabon to (i) train and prepare community members and (ii) build institutional capacity at the local level to assist councillors to effectively carry out program implementation functions.
While local govemment reforms and elections will significantly increase community involvement, success will de- pend on well-designed programs with quantitative benchmarks for monitoring and stict adherence to transparency and accountability. The Govemment is inthe process of developing legislation to give communifies more say in their development. More important, the Govemment will consider the allocation of block sums to communities to imple- ment their programs.
This will require Govemment to take immediate actons to (i)address capacity building at all levels; (ii)conduct local govemment elections and empower communities; and (iii) design clear lines of responsibility for the various organs of Govemment and agencies that will be involved in program implementation. At present, vacancies for technical and professional staff are high and widespread throughout the entire Govemment apparatus. The situation at the regional and community levels is even worse. Therefore, inthe short term, emphasis will be placed on technical assistance while the Public Service Modemisation Program (PSMP) is accelerated to streamline and modemise the public sector. Training at the regional and community levels will be carried out to support communities in the performance of their functions.
58 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
B. Monitoring Monitoring indicators provide a basis for the analysis of the impact of proposed programs on poverty reduction. Efficient monitoring and evaluation will depend on establishing an appropriate balance between input, access, output and outcome indicators. This is so, because poor performance of output and outcome indicators may reflect various problems in program design and implementation or extemal shocks.
Inputs may not have been delivered, indicating poor implementation, or inputs may have been delivered but without yielding the intended output, indicating inadequate program design. It is also possible that output may not lead to the desired development outcomes. In addition, cognizance needs to be taken of time lags in reaching outcomes. Generally, it takes several years after the implementation of social programs before the impact on output indicators (immediate goals) becomes measurable6. For these reasons, a combination of indicators including input, access, output and outcome will be utilised in measuring the progress of implementation of the PRSP. The usefulness of the monitoring will depend on the (i) quality of data; (ii) relevance of indicators; and (iii) monitoring strategy that will be adopted.
1. Data Availabiltiy and Program Monitoring Systems for data collection, collation and analysis are poor throughout Govemment agencies and ministries, in particular, in the social sector ministries. There is no standardisation of forms for data collection; no obligation to collect data, especially in hinterland and rural communities; and limited infrastructure and personnel. In addition, there is poor coordination among the central ministries and the several Project Executions Units (PEUs) set up to implement donor-funded projects. Even within ministries, Management Information Systems (MIS) units are weak and the work programs do not have any sense of urgency in collecting, collating and analysing key data critical to monitoring programs on a national basis. These problems are compounded by a poorly staffed, poorly-equipped Bureau of Statistics (BOS), lacking in expertise, that is unable to coordinate data collection functions in line ministries. The paucity of data is amply demonstrated in the Guyana Data Profile.
Dealing with these problems will require coordinated efforts by Govemment and the donors. Inparticular, it will require assessing baseline data, fully understanding the constraints, and providing resources to build capacity at the national, regional and community levels. This is crucial for improving the coverage, timely delivery and quality of data.
With support from the donor community, some progress has been made. In February 2001, the BOS conducted a baseline survey which sought to determine what data are available, their periodicity, and sources, as well as the requirements of stakeholders. The results of the survey showed that while there is general availability of data, in most instances, collection and periodicity are irregular. With the support of the donor community, in June 2001 Govemment established Thematic Groups with donors in health, education, water, and housing. Among the functions of the Thematic Groups is dealing with the data issue through medium to long-term institutional and capacity-building support.
Through the implementation of the ICT project, Govemment will utilise E-Govemment to advance its data collection and collation functions. With respect to data, E-Govemment will be designed to (i) create and sustain an electronic communications environment; (ii) ensure countrywide access to information; and (iii) develop standard formats for data collection.
6 Psacharopoulos (1994) gives an example of a World Bank-supported education project which took one year to be designed, justified and acceptd from appropriate funding, three years to supply facilities and to develop and supply improved teaching materials, and six years for the first students to graduate. The objectives of the program were to oontribute to economic gmwth, alleviate poverty, improve school quality and provide the labour market with appropriate skills.
59 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Inaddition, the BOS will be strengthened to carry out its functions, specifically inthe coordination of the collection of social sector data across ministries and PEUs. Inparticular, the unit for surveys will be strengthened, more staff will be recruited, and equipment will be upgraded. The Govemment will also seek technical assistance, with immediate effect, to assist in capacity building at the BOS. Towards this end, Govemment will initiate a comprehensive house- hold and expenditure survey biannually, beginning in 2002. These surveys, which will become part of the work program of the BOS, will generate statistical information essential in monitoring progress on PRSP implementation, complement other data sources, and improve regional, gender and general poverty profiles.
2. Relevance of Indicators In the short term, Govemment will upgrade its indicators to monitor its poverty programs while it implements its medium- to long-term strategy to expand coverage and quality of data. Staff will be trained and equipment provided to assist ministries to generate and improve the quality of the PRSP monitoring indicators. Table 6.1 provides a summary of indicators that will be usea to measure progress on implementation of the poverty strategy.
Table 6.1: GUYANA - QUANTITATIVE GOALS OF THE POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY
D h 1d, ,ggg 5 'm ' a mm. mm[ OUTCOME Population below the national povery line (%) .. .. 35.1 35.1 34.9 34.0 33.1 32.2 31.4 Enrolment and literacy %of prmary school entrants reaching Grade 6 82.1 83.2 83.4 83.4 83.5 84.6 85.7 86.9 88.2 Repetition rate (secondary) 14.2 13.3 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.3 11.2 10.1 9.5 Student/trained teacher ratio (primary) 55:1 55:1 54:1 54:1 53:1 53:1 52:1 50.1 48.2 Student/trained teacher ratio (secondary) 35:1 36:1 36:1 37:1 36:1 35:1 34:1 33.1 31.5 Gross nursery school enrolment 70 79 86 87 87 88 90 91 93 Gross primary school enrolment 105 109 110 110 107 105 102 100 100 Gross secondary school enrolment 65 68 60 62 65 68 70 72 74 %Trained teachers insecondary shools 56 57 56 55 56 57 60 62 64.5 %Trained teachers inprimary schools 50 51 50 49 49 52 55 58 61 Number of CSEC passes 57.3 37.2 46.9 46.7 51.4 52.5 55.5 58 62 Health and nutrition, sanitation Infantmortalityrate(per1OD000O) 59 58 58 57 56 50 47 45 42 Matemalmortalityrate(periO0,000) 190 190 190 188 187 170 150 146 130 1year olds immunised against measles 82.0 93.3 85.0 88.9 90.2 93.3 95.5 97.1 97.1 1year olds immunised against DPT 88.0 90.0 83.0 85.6 88.2 90.2 90.8 91.3 92 %of populabon with access to health service 88.5 89.2 89.8 90.4 90.5 92.5 93.7 93.8 94.0 %of population with access to adequate sanitation 88.5 88.3 88.3 88.4 89.2 89.4 90.1 92.1 93.2 NumberofreportedcasesofAIDS 115 222 237 248 227 225 220 210 205 ReportedcasesofAIDSamongwomen(15-45cohort) - 45 74 95 112 100 98 95 88 Water %of population with access to safe water 90.0 90.0 92.0 92.0 93.2 94.1 95.0 96 97.5 %of populab'on with access to treated water 34.6 42.7 49.3 53.3 56.2 59.1 60.5 61.8 62.3 Domestc households connected to water system a_ 45,000 50,400 57,960 65,000 68,200 71,500 73,400 75,000 78,000 Distibution network constructed (kilometers) aJ 200 210 230 230 250 263 275 278 280 Housing House lots distibuted 1,730 7,684 6,544 22,735 3,500 4,750 6,200 6,000 6,200 Land/House tilesdistributd 359 98 570 1,750 2015 5,200 10,200 12,000 15,500 Land distribution Agricultural lases 98 114 143 210 220 250 310 330 345 Business leases 68 74 86 97 105 110 122 140 150
The selecton of these indicators, in part, reflects the prioribes in the PRSP, availability and quality of data, and the periodicity of data. The indicators also take into account the capacity and institutional constraints that were outlined earlier. The indicators are also a mix of inputs, access, and outcomes. Clearly, while the monitoring of inputs will be possible from the start of the program, progress on access is more likely inthe medium term and outcomes inthe long term. The performance indicators are achievable both within the resource ceilings and capacity constraints.
60 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
3. Monitoring Strategies The monitoring strategy will involve (i)coordinating and reviewing the implementation status of the poverty program; (ii)tracking poverty expenditures; and (iii) involving communities in program monitoring.
a) Strenqthening the PRSS to coordinate the Poverty reduction program As the poverty program involves multi-sector activities and diverse functions, monitoring program implementation will involve coordinating poverty programs among the various agencies including line ministries, the State Planning Secretariat, SIMAP, the BOS, RDCs and NDCs, Village Councils, other govemment agencies and private sector organizations. The PRSS, therefore, will be retained and strengthened to coordinate and monitor poverty programs across ministries and agencies.
There are two reasons for this. First, Govemment entities are faced with inherent difficulties in coordinating activities across line ministries, and among govemment, donor agencies and NGOs. Second, the multi-sector nature of activities in the poverty program requires horizontal communication to accommodate and adjust, rather than the vertical lines of communication associated with line ministries. Inaddition, based on the outcome of the consulta- tions a 2-year poverty reduction action plan is being designed for line ministries, RDCs and Village Councils. This bridging plan will incorporate issues raised in the consultations, particularly those that could be addressed with very minimum resources.
b) Tracking poverty reduction expenditures A tracking mechanism that includes both ordinary and enhanced HIPC resources will be expanded to follow up on poverty expenditures inthe national budget. Budget codes for identifying poverty-related expenditures were developed with the World Bank and are included inthe PRSP as Appendix C. Such tracking of expenditures will include periodic analysis of the benefit of public spending and of the effectiveness of sectors in utilising funds earmarked for poverty reduction. In some instances, monitoring will also involve information on key inputs needed in sectors to deliver services effectively - teachers and books in education, or drug supplies in health care facilities. It will also include continued monitoring of and public debate on the composition of expenditures.
c) Community and NGO participabon in poverty pro-rams Communities will be involved not only in the monitoring of community-related programs but also in planning and implementation. Through local govemment reforms, communities will elect their own representatives. With the electon machinery in place, Govemment will work with other political parties to hold local govemment elections in 2002. The amendments to the Constituton that were passed in 2000 give broad functions to local govemment bodies. Such functions will be given effect to allow communities to participate in the management of their own affairs. The Govemment will encourage the establishment of committees within communities to monitor implementation of programs.
d) Community consultations for assessing progress in poverty reduction Inmid-2003, Govemment will hold public consultations to review the progress on the implementation of the PRSP. NDCs, RDCs, and Village Councils will be asked to comment on progress as well as target groups incivil society. In addition, through call-in programs on the radio and TV and community and regional consultations, a common set of indicators will be reviewed and changes recommended based on progress achieved. A revised program will be planned for the next phase of the PRSP.
4. DonorCoordination Strategy The Govemment will continue to collaborate with the donor communty on progress towards implementation of the PRSP and effective functioning of the Thematc Groups through regular meetings of the Donor Coordinating Unit. The involvement of donors in particular sectors will minimise duplication of donor programs and improve efficiency
61 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTnON STRATEGY PAPER in the use of donor resources. It will also provide appropriate support to build capacity, and review the status of implementation of the PRS.
Poverty Reduction Planning Framework
GOVERNMENT PROGRAM
_ _ 1._ __~~~~~~~~~~~~____ .__ _,1 .
_L7 7 _7z Annual Operating Mediumerammig nteQration of Poverty Reduction Goals, Plan Economic Objectives. Co-ordination and Monitoring of the Process
__, ______11 Economic and Social Programsl
NDS, PRSP l M, N PIntegration of Economic and Social Goals
Macroeconomic Medium-term Scenario and | Macroeconomic Framework Fiscal Framework
3-YearRolling < > Investrnent | 7,11 Government Budget
62 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
A central component of the PRSP consultations with civil society was the need to guarantee the long-term sustainability of the strategy. Successful implementation of the PRS presumes a set of initial favorable conditions. 1 These include, among others, achievement and maintenance of a national consensus on the strategy, the capacity to implement the program within a framework of good govemance pith citizen participation, the achievement of higher economic growth rates, gnd improved extemal economic and politi- cal environments. Put another why, a number of intemal and extemal factors could put the success of the strategy at rsk. Some of these can be influenced by Govemment and by other forces in society; others are exogenous to the domestic situation. A. National Consensus
RISK S The consultation process with civil society has had a breadth and depth never before seen in Guyana, establishing a positive momentum for a pro- F THU Icess of dialogue that can continue to be consolidated and strengthened as a OF THE*mechanism for examining and finding solutions to the many challenges S_ n"U_ - SfacingN the country. However, it is possible that a sufficient degree of consen- sus may not have been reached to implement the PRS in a sustainable STR ATEIGbY manner, especially with respect to the speed and depth of the reforms in economic and social areas, or the significant reallocations of public re- sources that are needed. Of particular importance in this regard will be the stance taken by opposition parties and the labor unions in engaging the Govemment in a constructive dialogue to move the process forward.
To minimise this risk, the strategy contemplates the establishment of an institutional framework with broad participation of the various actors of soci- ety, through which to develop a continuous strengthening of the dialogue as a means of reconciling differences of opinion. It is not possible to reach a total consensus, partly because of the lack of sufficient national and extemal resources to address all demands, but also because of deep-seated mistrust in the body politic. Nevertheless, disagreements can be minimised, based on joint efforts by the Govemment and organised civil society, so that the PRS can be seen as a long-term national program that transcends political or private interests. B Implementation Capacity
There is some concem within some sections of civil society and the intema- tional community regarding the country's capacity to fully implement the poverty program. This concem is based on Guyana's historically limited implementation capacity which reflects a number of factors, in particular, (i) inadequate human resources in the technical, managerial and administra- tive fields; and (ii) a still weak legal and institutional framework that does not yet guarantee sufficient transparency in contracting and implementing pub- lic works and services.
63 THiE GUYANA POVERTYl REDUCTION STREY PAPER
To minimise the risks associated with low implementation capacity, the strategy contemplates faster and deeper institutional reforms in all areas including tender and procurement reform; significant and well-focused investments to train the necessary human capital; and modemisation of the public service. C. Availability of External Resources
For many years, Guyana will continue to depend largely on intemational aid to finance a rapid and sustained process of social and economic development and poverty reduction. If extemal resources, including debt relief under the HIPC Initiabve, are not forthcoming at the level expected, the objectives and goals of the PRS will not be totally achieved. Therefore, to minimise the risk of not attaining program goals, Govemment will collaborate with donors in order to secure resources for the implementation of the poverty program. D. Developments in the World Economy
Globalisabon presents both new opportunibies and threats to Guyana. Full participation in the world economy is an essential element for achieving the PRS targets. However, given the openness of the Guyanese economy, participa- ton also means that the domestic economy must face several risks, such as wodd recessions, financial crises, dramatic swings inthe prices of key export and import commodities, and lack of appropriate access to key markets. At present, these risks are clearly apparent, as expectations of growth in the short term are increasingly limited by factors such as the deceleration of the G-8 economies, on which Guyana is highly dependent, and a deterioration of the extemal terms of trade, especially due to the drastic and persistent fall of export prices and the Euro.
Guyana cannot control these extemal threats. However, the country can minimise their effects by maintaining sound macroeconomic policies, sector policies that encourage the production of export products, and a relatively high level of foreign exchange reserves that helps mitigate the impacts of an unfavorable intemational environment. Inthis connection, the PRS proposes a series of measures directed to achieving the development of sectors of high produc- tive potential, within a framework of macroeconomic viability. E. Natural Disasters
The topography of Guyana renders it vulnerable to natural risks. As this document has made clear, most of the country's key investments are inlow-lying areas and are protected by intricate systems of sea defences. Frequent and uncontrolled breaches due to unanticipated high tides will adversely affect sugar, rice and other agricultural produc- tion. In addition, unfavourable weather such as too much rain or drought can affect agricultural production. These risks, if they occur, will negatively impact on growth and poverty reduction targets.
64 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
.DDUCTlONq29
- a
THE APPENDICES
65 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING | TARGETS i _ _ _ Enhamce Mairain prudent Improve revenue Underlake comprehensrve review of taxsystem Tax studycompteled by end June2002 June20a2 GOGJUSAJDAJIFI World macroeconorric fiscal policy collection Broaden the tax base Stakeholdeis' workshop on study September Bank framework Reduce tax rates cornpletedby end September2002 2002 Revise and update fees Recommendations of study incorporated March 2033 Comptete staffing of Reverue Authorty and in2003 budget strengthen regioral revenue offices Recnuitmert of staff completed June 2002 GOG Provide resources to Revenue Authontyto effectivety cany out its functiors Improve expenditure Complete the compuiemation of public service Pension payrdi compulensed Done IDA provided suppod for control pWroll including pension. daily, weekly, morthly Regional payrols networked by September this task payees and issue adminslratrve directive to end 2001 Mach 203 wage payments outside the computrensed system Program budgeting for public secior Instidue program budgeting inall Govemment implemented by2003 December CIDNGOG minstnes and agencies, using action plan Agreement on wage poi cy and programs to 2032 dsveoped by GEMP r Improve industnal relations reached with Limit public sector wages to irilakion and Public Service Union June2003 productvity increases Systems inCludng inernea audits to Develop tighter controls and accounlability of non- deterrrine efficiency of spending developed wage and non-inlerest expenditures and repoded on aquaderty basis Mainain prudent NbMiain pnce and Conibruously review nionetary policy to accord Link monelary aggregates to private sector June 2003 IMF monetary policy exchange rate wih prvate sectoririvestment credd, investment and interest rales and integrty of the stabdity ConbruousIy remiew domestic debt policy to Set targels to reduce donmstic debl March 2002 financiae system reduceriscal burden on govemment Review and update monetary programrring to Provide quaerdy reporls on monetary Ongoing promvideaccurate forecasting aggregates and link to pnvate sector investmenl Strengthen the Irplemert provisior of FIA Subnil quaterly reports on status of Ongoing IDB financiarsystem Strengthen Banking Supervision Depadment of financial irsiltutions and provide DFID BOG to carry out its functions rcommnndaions for action November Present amual banking sopeMsion audts Bankmg supervi ion insututional 2001 strengtheming agreed to by IDA/IDB implemented
66 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTON STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS _ I_I Encourage and'or Establish stock Establish the Guyana Securities Membera of the GSC appoirted and a December DFID support prvate market Council (GSC) Secretanat estatlished 2001 sector to raise Establish the Guyana Secunties Deaerm Board of GASCI appointed and a December local finamicng for Association Secretanat esabtished 2(01 investment Procu'e equipment and human resources to Work prograrmrs for GSC and GADSCI Decerber operalionalise stock excharge developed 2001 Equipment for operationalisation of stock June 2IC2 wechange procured and mstalled and staff recruded Develop pnvate Completeconrcep paperon modaities of Pnvatesectorconcept pepersubrited Dore N/A development bank establihng aprivate development bank (Done) Grant incentrves for the establishmert of development bank Adminmstrative order on rcenkves issued Done Regulatory and Irprove efficiency Modemise the Ratiomalse roles, resporrsibtdies and otipub of Assessmerts of rmndtnes and agenies Decernber iDS instuticonal of the publi sector pttlicsector and minsines and government agencies corrIpleted 2001 framework indelivery of restnrcture the Establbh clear lines of repoting Action dan of program impemertation September seMces pLiblic sector Review job descriptiorn, work pro nramsand devetoped 2002 condtiorrs of service Morntonri tameb agmned upon March 2003 Ir prove framework Establish an autonomous tand agency Legstla(ion passed establahing Done IDB/GOG for land Proces all land applcatiors inone office autonorrious land agency development Cormputemse land intorTnaion Develcp transparert mechanisms inland Standardskcntena forlanddstnbLion January2(O2 dstribution published Regularise squatter holdings Targets set for reducing squalter holdings June 2002 Corwed leesehodd to freehold Targets set for accelerating leasehold to September freehdd tdle 2002 Reform tender and Establih Public Procurement Comnmssion Members of Commrsin appointed and January2(02 GOGIE-HIPC procurement Lay amended tender and procurement bill in Secrelanal estabtished Partiarrent Mondorable indicalors set on tender and June 2002 Imrplemenit provisions of amended tenider and procurement impiemertation procurement bill Evaluation crtena for tenders publihed September _ _ _ _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2002 Decetralese publi Strengthen regionet adinstrations and agencies Number oservmes deltvered by regional January2003 GOGIE-HIPC services to provde basic seMcessuch as the isuance of admindtr2tiors and agencies increased bidh and death certificates and passports Resources allocatedto strengthen reg onal Mach 2002 gvwermenb and agencies Quarteriy feedback from commundies in June 2002 regions through PRSP reports -Ongoing
67 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002.2005
POUCY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS . Modemmse the Restnicure and Increase efriciency Modemise and upgrade the Skeldon facoy Studies agreed to inthe action plan Decenber DFID/GUYSUCO/CDB Iraddional economic modemise the of he sugar indLsity Restrotiure management conraCts conpleted 2001 base sugar industry to deal with erosion Limit rwestments inthe Demerara estates to Targets set for reducing cost of production January2002 of preferentiat routine operations and maintenance overthe medum term market access Contirue dscussions wdh uriors to tink wages Tenderfortheconstniction d the Skeidon December and bonuses to productlvdy and profitability factory 20)1 indicators Increased resources allocated to researrh March 2003 and development Modemise the Increase eftiziency Strengthen NARI to caryy out reseach for tigher Rice yietds per acre January2003 E-HIPC/GOG agnculture sector of agnculture yielding and pest resitant seed varieties Exporl votumes and sates of agricultural January 2004 production wdh produce enphass on itprove extension services to the agrculture National Bureau of Standards Reporis on Novenber exports sedor ernorcement ofslandards of expogabte 202 -ongoing Seek technicat assistance to suppod reseaich produce and development efforts We dplomatic and dther mechanims to expand and martain mrarkes Expand the inmprove the Respond and Develop garment manufactunng parks to ltake Commitment obtained from pnvate Open IDA economic base to environment for consider private advantage of EnhancedCBi investors beforeconstructionof parks IDB support the poor manufactunng sector requests for Review feasibility studies of building deep pod Volume of expors on quaderty basis Open Government i tncia support harboir with private sectorsupport Employment crealed onsemFannual basis Open E-HIPC tosutain program Develop new Package and Grant concessions to oil and mineral prospecing, Numberof corcessions granled Decernber GOG product iines market Guyana's exploration and exploitation companies 20)2 E-HIPC vast mnerat and Conistanty review incentives inthe miningsector Atual rnvestmens October2C04 fossil resources to make ivestmenis altracbte Employment and foreign excharUe October2905 abroad contributions Develop Inforniation Liberalse the communicatiors sector Information Technology Authoriyset up June 2003 iDB Technology Accelerate ITtrarung Corpetdive bdding included indocuments June 20X0 GOG business Develop Information Techndogy parks in foriT connecbivdy response to private sector request Nunber of rimE expressing irterest Decenber Promrte Guyana as adestination for ouEwurcing 2002 and e-exporis Volume of exports Decerrber 2003 Nunter of jos crealed (emp cymert Decenber creation) 2003
68 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POUCY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING | TARGETS ______Accelerale Develop Estabish an aulonomous National Tourism Board Numrber of new businesses created in the January2003 GOG development of conprehenswe to promote and regulate the indLstry sector E-HIPC eco-ouism strategyfor eco- Provide training for jobs wihin the tourism Nufber of jobs generaled June 2003 touism ndustry Cortributions to foreign exchange Marh 2)04 development in Estabish guidelines for the preservation of response to pNate ervironment sedor demards Suppor prate sector to i rprove securty for tourists Supporl private Aggressivety Strengthen Provide informabon and corrpary matchng GOINVEST strengthened both in September GOG sector development support privale instrtuional suppod seMces equipment and staffing 2002 E-HIPC sectorto expand forinvestment and Suppor local companies to paricipate in Regular markel bnefs dissermnated for Decerber and martain export promtoion overseas trade fairs and domestic exhibitions Guyana's main exports 20)2 markets Work with unons and poldical paries tormaintain Increase ininvestments and- ouaput and Decemiber stable potitca and indistnal relations exports inthe medium term 2004 Grant adonomy to GOINVEST and expand its furrtior_s Develop and Iiplementspecitc Enac Smell Businwss and Cottage IndustnresAct Revised Small Bnsiness and Cottage June2tXQ GOG expand small polices to integrate Sirplify the process of bsinesscreabion and indusiies B11laid inPadiamert E-HIPC businesses and smalt bisinesses regisralion Public consultations on irtegralion of coHtage industnes and coHage Suppcrt competiiion inmicro-credit finarcing formnaiand non-formal economies September indstnes into the cormpleted 2102 fonmal economy _-__emb ___ Enhance Promote Guyanas Estabish an atlonomoDs National Tounrsm Board Personnel appoirted to the Board September GOG framework for eco- eco-ounrm Set gUdelines for eco-ourim development in 202 EHIPC tourism iMdemabonally orderto proled and preserve the nalural habit Work programs for the Board agreed upon Mrch 2003 development Reform school curnciuum to retled the potential of eco-touism Guidelines aproved March2_ Improve good trrplemenr Establoh the Establsh Secretanats for these committees Staff for committees recruted June 20X0 GOG governarce Consbtutional commitees on 0 Provide oversight supervision to work of Equipment procured for thefurctioning of June 20Q E-HIPC reforms to imrprove Natural Resource; Government fices public - (i)Economic Allocate resources to the functioning of these Nunmberof hearigs of comnrittees September accouMrability Services, (ii) commMtees 2 Foreign Relaionsr and (rv Social Servces
69 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING ______TARGETS ______Enhance Cortirue politcal Expedite the work program of task forces Frequenwy of press releases from bilateral Ongoing GOG conidence dialogue between Imrplement recommendations meetings E-HIPC bildidig measums Government and the Cortirue to search for new areas where Speedwith which recommendabons are December tosustamn political man opposiion government and oppositon canwork together implemented 2001 and economic pary Assessmert of general serne of feeling June 2002 stabildy and securdy Number of expressions of interest and June2004 _ _ _ _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~aCtualinvetment tak(nsg place itmprove justice introduce far- Refturbshcouri facilities Reduction inbacktog of cases June 2003 E-HIPC adminmtretion reaching reforms in I riprove facilities at the Law Library ReduCion incn merates June 203 judkiary and iaw Develop admnistratrve systems and procedures Adddional staff mcruded for Guyana Police December ernorcemeri to i mprove mcorcls and trenscnpts Force 2002 agencies InstitLie cortinuing education for the magstracy inproved corditiors of work Mach 2)02 and judiciary I roprved performarce of members of the January2103 rimplement Police rforrrms Gvyana Potice Force Seek technical assdstarnce to help adjudicatirg _ cases Reform local Grant drmc Reviev statLuso local govemment laws and make Legetlaive refomis on local government June 200 E-HIPC government representation to amendments to give direct representation to syslemcompieted commuribes to communities Local council elecbirns conducted December choose their own Review NDCs and RDCs and make them more 2;Xi2 leaders accountable Drseminalion ofinlonnabon on programs Ongoing Grant aulonomy to reformed Iccal government by community leadeis on quadlerty basis systers to pdanand implement programs within Declaralion of asseis by elected officials Ongoing set bints before entenng and/or demMimngoffice Strengthen inlormetron systens incommunUties Audded accounis of local government Ongoing Sel mechansmrs within reformed system to bodies. improve accourtablidy and ranspareancy Establihed and functioning commiltees January 2)03 Require commundies to estabibsh working committees inpubhc works, eduzcatior health water and saritation and good govemanre Strengthen the capacity of community members to govem
70 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS Improve Mainlan stability of Rehabilitale and Develop sea deferce maindenance strategy Increased expendddure insea defence September E-HIPC rnfrastnrLure to sea detence mairtain sea Seek lechnical assistance to provide indutry mairtenamce work 2002 supporl growth infrastnrcture and deerrce specific suppod to the privateseclorlo undedake Increased nunberof raining and Decenber ircursions inthe infrastricture large sea defence projects workshops on techniques of sea defence 21X2 most produclive EliKd commumity invovement insea derence mairtenance September land areas Drotection Reduced number cr breaches 2(02 Expand air, road NMrtain and Rehabilitate and maintain bridges and farm to More community participation inmonitonrig Ongoing E-HIPC and river improve market roads road use and road mairtenarce tran6sporabon inrrastruzture to Develop anational road martenance program Fewer complaints on use of walersystems November network support productive Set mri mum road staridards 2002- Ongoing activies Rehabilitate and irrprove stellmngs, vessels National road maindenance program November Rehabilitate htiedand aistnips implemented 2003-Ongoing Expand and rriprovecapaityto Imrplement the D&l Act Members of Board appanted and equipped Decenber E-HIPC improve drainage carry out ewpanded Set up anew Board of Directors wdh private to irrplement their fnmtions 2002 and imgation D&l project sector participation to manage D8J schemes Redukced flooding in arming areas Novenber schemes Seekcommunily padicipation inmanagingwater 2(02 resources Measurable rrcrease inagncultural outpul June 2003 Underdake contnuous dredgng of water systems March 20)2 to minimise flooding and poor functionring of the DUJschemes Develop and implement regular and roub e D8J mainenance proaram Provide electncdy Expand power Implement niral el ecriffcation program 40C000 rural households over3 yeas September IDB to underserved distnbution tines to Cornplete studies on least ccst solutions and connected 2004 areas r-ral areas provide largetedsuppod to poorfamilies Wodkshops on opbors of providcng power August 202 Focus connections to more populaied areas to hinterand commuribes organzed Evaluate sustanable ways of developing and connecting powerto hnterand commundies Itrprove social Irprove amcess, Expand preventative Mount rogiJarimmunsabon and other prograrms Begin appropnation to purchase June 200 E-HIPC condcdions by coverage and care and reduce the to contain malaria, NM and other irfectiou equipment, drugs materials creating access to quality of heath incidence of other diseeses E-HIPC health services care, especially to frequently occurrng Defog malana-infested areas, especially in Lower incidence of malana, STis, HIV and March 2003 the poor diseases hinteland locations on aregularbass other iriectious dseases, lower mortality rates
71 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCniON STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS l l _ l _l Provide medical Rehabiliate the Mahaica Hospital and corvert Lower incidence and prevalence of HIV Decenber E-HIPC care to HIVlAJDs- into Nationals AIDS Certre 2003 related patients Develop an up-lo-date STI, HIVlAIDs database Lower number of reported cases of AIDS Decenber Recnuid and train social workers to provide 2003 counselling incommundies Encourage manufactunng of HIV/AJDS dnugs Develop and irrplemerd astBtained public awareness progrars inSTI, HIV/AIDS Improve medcal Broaden functions of doctors, nuses and Lower patient/doctor and patient/nurse September E-HIPC facilties and dielicans inhealth centres to include basic ralios 2004 condborrs of servce training and edication of personal hygiene June 2004 for medical Upgrade healthcentres andclirics innural and Infant and matermal mortality rales personnel interior locations wlh X-ray machines, laboratory June 204 faciliies and screening equipmerd, radio and Lower number of patients attending telephone comrrunications and generators Georgetown Public Hospital Develop a rotating scheme of visitation for specialised doctors and nurses to prwide expert services to people innural and intenor locations on regular basis Review allowarces and fringe beneflts of health personnel stationed ininterior and rural locations Provide non-pecuiary ircentive to retain medical personnel Improve Introduce market pnnciples inthe procuremert National Materiabs Management Agency September E-HIPC procurement and and delivery established 2003 delivery of drugs Corrputense the national dnrt bond and stores at and medcal GPH and other regional hosptabs Regular repods from regional and cstict September supplies Ensure regular delivery d medcal supplies and hospitals, health clinics about the state of 200-Ongoing drugs and storage systers inrural and Hnteitand medical supplies and dnugs commundies Improve efficiency in Review medical facilities throughout the country Lower number of patients on wading lisis September E-HIPC the use of health Closelell facildies that may no longer be for overseas care 20X0 services necessary Reduce numberof patients an waiting list Corrprehensive repod on medical facildies January20C'3 Seek and sign cortracts with at least 3regional and an action plan for iniple mentation hosptals inCARICOMto provide specialised submritted services especialiv to the poor
72 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCnION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002.2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING | TARGETS _ _ _ Provide Upgrade facildies at Deterrmne core areas o highest frequency of Needs assessmend compleled October2(B2 E-HIPC corrpreherrsrve the Georgetown specialised ailments solutincto the Public Hospdal to Deterrine the feasibildy of creating new Trarsparent standards of eligbilitycntena June 2002 special ailments handle treatment of departments and upgradgr equipment and developed and published inpapers that could not these special facildies presentybe ailments Recnuid, train and assign nurses and doctors to treated inGuyana these departmerits to work with Wpeds and to _ revde post-operative care Recrud on contract. Seek assistarre fmomdonor agencies. WHO, Numberof GLyanese andforeign June 2004 E-HIPC on a regularbasis, NGOs and national medical associations d expatrates providing services intemabonal expers renowned experts inspecial areas of need to vrsd Guyana to Loer number ofpabents on waiting list September peiform the 2004 specialtsed servEe Develop human lIprovecoverage, Reckice repetion Reduce drop-oit rates inprimary schools Lowerrumber of drop-ouls September E-HIPC resource errolmerd and rates inpnmary Recrud and retain counsellorsocial workers 2003 development performance of schods and especially insecondary schools Lower repetition rates atpn mary schools June 200 students infirst increase enrolment Introduce cuiricula reforrs to make education January2003 and second cycles insecondary more relevant to Guyanls developmert and Higher errotments at secondary schools January2003 schools requiremerts at the work place Place errphasis on lReracy and numeracy Higher number of schools withcomputers January2005 mastery and other leamrg tectnologes Integrate mDdem technologies into teaclirng, leaming, and school administration Redice Build nursery schools Lower teacheriupil rat o June 2003 IDB overcrowding in Rehabilitate/reconstruct pnmriaiy schools Smaller class sizes September IDA schools and Rehabiltate/recorBstrct secondary schools 2003 increase enrolrmnt Develop and implement acomprehersiveschool Nurnber of schools rehabildtated June2=C mamrtenance program _ Train, recruit and Increase growth inteacher training Trained teacherto pupl rabo at 27 1 September E-HIPC retain trained Accelerate in-seMce training for urtrained 2004 teachers and social teachers Inrproved student test scores June 2004 workers Inprove condbiorm ol service ofteachers and Reduced drop-out rates October2004 social workers including the use of non-pecuniary Reduced number of untrained teachers by May 2005 incertives 50 percent
73 THE GUYAA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATRS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS _ _ _ _ Improve aptitLude in InstRtle Nabonal Standards Aptiude test in Reducedfunctional itiderecy January2004 GOGIE- Mtvhematics and fMhenmats and Language Arts Inproved Mathemrratcs and Englsh January2004 GIPCADBADFID Engleh Language Develop clear guidelines forstudenl promotion Languaee test scores Provide required Charge studerts textbook fees on an amual Inrezmasednumber of textbooks inschools January2lX3 E-HIPC texdbooks to basis students and Cornduct study to determine students eligible for Study on targeted subsides completed January21X2 implement cost targeted subBides recovery Target students from poorfarnilies and gve them Nurberof targeted studerts receinmg January2004 vouchers to rent books ard exemnpI them from subsidies examnationfees Charge full cost for lost or nidilated books without exeplion Estabish aschool Provide breakfast and hd lunches for pnmrary Lwerdrop-outl rales September E-HIPC feeding progam and secondary school students 2002 Imple menl cost recovery Irproved test scores June 20X0 Provide vouchers for students of poor families Use local produce and engage local commurdies locater Itrsmtie strict hygieric and environmertal starndards _ Establish school Work with donors to acquire school buses Nunberof school buses September E-HIPC trasportation Develop martenance workshops and recruit 2003 system lechniciams to mairdainvehrcles Higher level of putciuality atschools June2003 itpiement cost recovery making emeptions for Lower drop-ouls July 2004 children from poor families Improveeficierecy Ensure good and Create Guyana Merge GUYWA and GWSC Legslation to establsh the Gwana Water June2002 E-HIPC inthe quality and effedive regulation WaterCompanyrlo Ratioralie and streamline staffingforoperational Cormpanypassed delivery of water of the sector replace GUYWA efficiercy Board of Directors to manage the September supply and GSWC Develop stem and dalabase and improve billing autonomOus agency established 2002 and collection of waler rates Revied water rates published June 2003 Revise water rates to meet operational costs ..
74 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS l Expand access Expandwater Conrecl commuribes to watersystems Higher population with arcess to potable September E-HIPC/EUjDFID and quality of services to rural and Consbuct waterwells water 2004 water especially intenor Install windmills and wafer pumps locaiorns Develop national water maintenaice plan and Households cornecled to wafer Janiary aOU4 implement it DOMnbuiion network connected Procire chemicals to treat raw water Develop systems to protect the integnty of water reservoinskonservancies Improve co-ordination of the water agency and the D&t.Depadment of Mnsrvy of Agricuturne Accelerate housing Support families to Strergthen shelter Develop and prepare housing schemes wih Number of house lots distnbuted June 20I2 IDE development ownhomes and land markets, infrastructure developmert fordistribuiion Land and house tiles ditnbuted June20t2 andfacilitate Impemern the National Building Society Higher modgage loars approved June2003 potential Amendmeri Act Number of new homeowners accessing homeowners Streamline the operations of the Deeds Regstry RevoMng Fund December Issue policy framework paper on real estate 2X03 development wRh clear gudelines Establish Low-income Housing Revolvmng Fund Crtena for house lots allocation published June 2002 Mnirnrse peiceplion of discn imnation inhouse lots allocation Ratioralse the Coenplete costJbenefit analysis of public land Public workshop to dscuss master pNan October 2002 E-HIPCAIDB devestRure of public proposed for divestiture held January 2003 land forsound Develop master plan of housing schemes Recommendations from works hop residential including schools, banks, post offices and other implemented settlement social servces and enfoice corrpliance by deveopers Accelerate squalter Determine optimum number of residential Reduced squatting October 2003 E-HIPC/EUADB area regulasation buildings insquatting areas Identtly areas for relocation New housing schemes October 2004 Organse workshop with squalters and agree on selecion cntena Agree on location for squatters December Relocate squatters 2004 Issue land tales before relocation Develop basic infraestncture inregularised Numberof cases prosecuted June 2003 squatting areas Review penal code on squatitrig and enforce _____.______complriance wBh the law ______cor__pl _r_c__w_h_the_law
75 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POUCY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONfTORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS _ _ Inprrovebasic Redice the curreri Rehabildals sewersystesm Cleaner srmronmertal suiroundings June IDB sanRtaion level ofsandary Corshtsludgepre4reatnent plant Regilar repors on status of program 2002iongoing E-HIPC degradation Corsbuxt garbage disposal plants implemeriation published September Rec rmerononmental officers to enforce 20X13 exitsinglamended laws on environmental safety Nurber of persors prosecuted forvolatirg January2103 the law Direcglytarget Reduce poerty Secure adddional Request addiionl finarcing from donors to Loan agreemeris signed June2002 IDB poverty and gqap funding for SlfAP directly assist the poor errpowering and BNTF Build provisions inloan agremerts to allow the Nurrberofcomrrundies appling to use Marh 2002 commumbes commuribtesto developtheirown projects within SIMAP and BNTF resouices for community ageed firancial and eligibility thrsshdds deveopmont Cortinue to provide support to pregnant and lactabrg mothers New poverty map published June2002 Develop anew pwerty map Evaluate the perforrmnrce of SIMAP and BNTF in Nubserof pregnart and lactating mdhers August 2003 reaching the poor and indroduce reforrm if receiving support necessary Reformsocial Revsw actuarial Recorciletwo studies Studies recoricrled September IDB secunty studss of ILO Irrplement recommendations 2002 contributions Determine the Expand coverage of corinbutors Nubrier of new contbactors optiors of June 2003 increasng social secuniy beneffls and provide recommendation for reforming the NIS .__ Carry ot Strengthen sector Iiprove capacity of Determine dala gaps essential to irrmprwe Quarterty/anrual reondabeindicators daia January2002- E-HIPCADB insstRlutonal agercies/rriristies NIS/Planning Units mondonrg of PRSP indtcators inline Mnistries generated orgoing strengthening to monitor/evaluate EstablshisWtngthen planrerg skills inline program Mnistnes Quarterly/annual reports on progress of Establishtrenghen MS inPlanrnng Units and PRSP impemerfation generated Noverrmber set out leCarfnCtioris 2002 - orgoing Develop and implement work prograrms of .______thematicgroL_s
76 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
GUYANA POLICY AND PERFORMANCE MATRIX, 2002-2005
POLICY AREA OBJECTIVES STRATEGIES REQUIRED ACTIONS MONITORING INDICATORS TARGET SOURCE OF AND AND MEASURES DATES FINANCING TARGETS Targei regQormswlh Develop special Target specdric Expand agrictltural supporl services IncreasedfoodArvestock production October2003 E-HIPC extreme poverty intervention armas essendial in Develop seed nuisenes projects improving econofc Rehabilitate St. Ignatius Livestock Stalion Higher errolment inschools September and social welfare Provide farming imrplements 2004 Provide boas to faciliate marketing orfarm Number of jobs (wage eamers,setr September produce employed) 2004 Rehabilitate trails, bridges, and odher modes of transpoalaion Train persons incommunlies inteaclirhg healih -______-cam, aidothersocral seri_es Revtalise economic Inpltemeri the LEAP project 100tjobs created over3 years June 2003 EU actMlies inRegion Develop new housing schemes Nunter of house lots and tiUes June 20Q E-HIPC 10 Resolve electricity problems Nunber of wells dug January ax3 Expand access towaterin riverain areas AJlocaion to road rehabilldlion incneased June 2003 Rehabilitate key roads to suppod productive ___. __ __.__.,. .,.,.______._sector Improve poly tIrprove data Srergthen line Develop standard formats for data cdlecion. Staff locaed inregoros and providedwith Decerber E-HIPC anrsiain colleclion and minrstries and especiallysocial sector data equipmert 2002 minstries and coverage government Strenrshen managemeri inormabon sWerm agercies throughoul agercies Assign statisticians and MS personnel inregions Qualiy and coverage ofdata rrproved Augusi2003 Government tocdleo economic and soctal data Quantdatrve targets expanded September ssem Co-ondinate datawo* and irstihLdional 2003 strenthening with donors Reguiar feedback provided from Thematic January 2002 - Define more clearly the role of the Groups to Donor Co-ordination Meetings orgoing .-- ____ ~~~~~~~~ThamatlicM#orkingGroups .-- ~--.--- Eriure effectwve Co-ordinate Strengthen the Retanco-ordinatorofthe PRS and recruit two Work prograrm completed and Ap n2I 2 E-HIPC implementation of poverty reduction Povedy Redrcton supporl staff dsse in rated to stakeholders poverty reduction strategies to Strategy Secretarial Monfor poverty reduction work prograrms of Commurnties and minstries vrsrted to June strategy minimrse NDCs RDCs and tine mndtnes follow-up 202hongoing duplicetron Prepare quaderty imjemeimtation status Follow-up workshops to get commnrity November Assist comnundies incdlaborelion wdh SiMkP reactions to poverty programs organsed 2002 and BNTF indevelopirg poverty reduc ig
77 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION SMtAUGY PAPER
APPENDIX 2A GUYANA OPERATIONS OF THE NONFINANCIAL SECTOR (mprcent of GDP unless daifse stated)
... IiS ii1,, . ; ,II 1. 111 .!. . a Revenue 34.6 326 33.4 34.9 35.8 35.9 37.2 36.2 CentralGovenrTenrt 31.8 31.9 31.1 31.5 3Z0 31.9 31.1 320 Tai revnuue 29.3 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.1 28.4 29.8 oW Inpcwtrnlatedrevenue 11.9 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.8 11.3 10.5 8.7 In etaxes 123 123 1 13 124 17 127 15.0 Non-Tax Reveues Z5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 21 20 1.3 Pubdic,nterpises Z8 0.7 22 3.4 3.8 4.0 6.1 4.2 Total Revenue 35.7 324 321 27.1 27.0 268 280 23.1 QCrrdt ENMdlure 3Z9 31.6 29.8 23.7 23.2 2Z8 21.9 18.9 Expenditure 48.4 49.1 525 544 51.1 47.9 436 35.7 Currentexpendture 34.6 35.8 33.7 33.5 31.2 30.0 29.7 24.0 Noniiterestuarrerntesp8xibre 25.4 27.0 26.2 26.7 25.0 24.4 2311 19.0 rivPersonalerndurrts 11.0 11.5 11.1 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.5 9.0 Oha goods and sevices 6.3 6.4 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.2 Cost of SunLMalRefom 0.0 0.0 o.o 1.9 0.6 0.5 0.0 eo Intrest 9.2 8.8 7.5 6.8 6.2 5.6 6.7 4 9 Exteam(re-hipc) 5.3 52 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.0 2.9 Dlresc1/ 3.9 36 32 Z8 24 20 27 21 CtapiexwdtureandNetLendng 13.8 133 18.8 20.8 19.9 17.9 13.9 11.7 Cenrta Goerrnent 122 11.2 14.9 17.5 16.6 14.9 1Z4 11.0 StateCaporatior,sandNIS 1.6 Z1 3.9 3.3 33 3.0 1.5 0.7 ofw OnlendngtoGuysuco 0.0 0.0 26 Z2 Z2 Z0 0.0 0.0 Current balance 0.0 -3.2 -0.3 1.3 4.7 5.9 7.5 122 Overalbalancebeforegrants 13.8 -16.5 -19.1 -19.5 -15.3 -1Z0 -6.4 0.5 Grants 7.7 9.4 10.9 10.5 9.9 9.2 &6 Z6 HIPCrelief 4.3 66 7.2 69 6.6 61 5.7 1.1 Cther 34 28 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.2 29 1.4
Overall balance after grants -6.0 -7.1 -&2 -9.0 -5.4 -28 22 30 Total finandng 60 7.1 82 9.0 5.4 Z8 -22 -3.0 Net Fcreign Finandng 5.6 5.3 7.2 9.5 6.9 5.9 1.5 Z9 Net Domestic inarmdng 0.5 1.8 1.0 -0.5 -1.5 -32 -3.7 -5.9
Memanwdum tn 0iginalHIHPC Rfief 4.1 4.4 33 3.1 30 28 24 1.1 O-HIPCrnlatedaxrentsocialsectrspencir 9.5 9.9 11.6 112 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.8 O-HIPC related catal social sector sperdin 5.0 7.0 5.4 4.2 3.5 34 3.4 3.4 EnhancedHIPC Peief 0.3 22 39 3.8 37 3.3 3.3 1.9
Nriinal GDP at Maket pices (G$m) 130,01Z0 136,927.8 147,303.8 15&33Z2 17Z311.7 188,041.5 208,033.4 312,4166
Sce: G nrrentofa yana
78 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
APPENDIX 2B: GUYANA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (inmfoines ofUS d0ara)
Currant account (exd. officdaltransfer) .109.1 .1463 4176.0 *208.1 -220.8 .201.4 .182.7 .158.2 Merclranlnse rade(not) -80.2 .98.1 .131.4 -162.8 *181.1 .165.4 .146.6 .127.0 Exports(fo.b.) 505.2 5091.5 525.4 553.5 597.4 637.7 677.1 815.9 of mwhi: Bauxite 76.4 70.5 727 74.9 77.1 79.3 793 838l Sugar 11117 119.0 111.8 117.1 125.0 132.6 140.4 166.4 Rice 51.8 5no 59.9 684 76.8 86.7 959 126.0 Gold 120.3 128.0 136.0 1358 147.5 155.0 160.9 174.1 rumber 17.3 16.0 16.9 228 26.9 26.4 30.7 44.0 Re-exports 25 25 25 2 7 2.8 30 .12 .9 Ollhern 1162 116.5 12a6 131.7 141.4 1526 166.7 2188 Imports(sit) 5815.41 607.6 656.8 716.3 77.2 803.1 8236 943.9 Capitadlgoods 131.6 133.7 162.5 174.9 1906 196.3 198.6 220.0 ConsumergoDsf 164.4 167.0 178.7 197.2 213.8 2209 227.9 264.0 Fueland lubricanrts 121.0 130.0 132.8 142.4 156.1 159.9 163.9 176.9 OlthrInermlnediate 160 2 170.9 182.8 201.8 218.7 226.0 233.2 270.1 Miscellaneous 0.2 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 Services (not) .76.0 .94.2 .92.9 .93.6 -92.0 .92.1 .96.8 *98.0 Nonfactorservima -23.9 .40.9 .415 .43.6 -44.6 -44.0 .45.4 -51.3 Fwctorservices -52.1 -533 -514 -49.9 -47.5 .48.1 -5112 46.7 Mentprivate transfems 47.0 46.0 411,3 98.2 53.0 56.2 60.5 68.8 Capital and financial account 137.8 1124.4 125.1 155.3 165.2 179.3 149.3 130.2 Capltlaccountt 1121 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 Finndal accont 197.8 124.4 1125.1 153 165.2 179.3 148.3 125.2 Non-financialpublicnsectDr (nal 59.0 89.9 87.1 198.3 85.2 853 45.3 32 2 Netofficiallmfrafis '13.4 36.5 28.0 25.8 27.0 28.2 28.2 102 Netofficial bonwin 43.0 534 58.3 79.5 50 2 57.1 17.1 14.1 Projectloanm (cin. Guynuco) 38.7 40.3 55.2 70.5 73 5 72.4 72.4 48 5 Pragrarnonn 30.1 40.4 292 31.2 16.0 16.0 17.0 17.2 Resbructuredstoc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Amartsztan .237 -27.2 -26.1' .30.2 -31.3 .31.3 .72.3 .51.6 Scheduleda,ortzffbon -237 -27.2 -26.1 -30.2 .31.3 -31.3 -72.3 .51.6 Othe (sno-areer) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Othearpbkc neclor(net) (mod. Guysuco) 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 Privatesector (net) 78.7 34.5 3800 47.0 80.0 94.0 103.0 93.0 Chae inNFA of commurcial banks 1.6 -5.1 -17.0 -8.0 -5.0 0.0 00 0.0 OthershrtiltefnnfowslTrndacedil 100 -6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 -7.0 Fomigndirnclinsntent (net 67.1 45.6 54.0 55.0 85.0 94.0 133.0 100.0 of whrichr:sales ot assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Enmm=rd o.,stetons 38.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 1.0 5.0 Overall balance 67.1 -22 -5i .51 .56 -22 .32 .23 Financing .87A1 22 51 51 98 22 32 23 BOGnotforeign assets .61.7 -1.9 -20 8 -20.7 -1.9 .241 .31.7 .108 Assets (incean-) -29.7 25.8 -29.1 -30.0 -10.0 0.0 -10.0 -100 Renervaassets .29.7 25.8 -29.1 .30.0 -10.0 0.0 -10.0 -10.0 LiabilIest -32 0 -27.7 8 4 9.3 8.1 -24.1 -21.7 -8.8 Of which: useof LMFcrsdi(net) -10.9 -16.3 164 17.3 16.1 -16.1 -13.7 0.0 CharngeinNFPS arrnar 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0 0 Exceptionalfinancng .5.4 32.0 25.0 25.0 250 25 0 230 14.8 DebtreOat (origial HIPCfrom 1999) 0 0 32.1 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 23.0 14.8 OQsmllonoanc,n 6.9u 8- 46. 46. 221 VA 41. ZLO Remaininggap 0 0 15.0 46.6 48.5 32.5 21.1 43.1 37.0 Gapto befined byE4HIPC 0.0 15.9 30.0 30.0 30.9 20.2 31.7 25.1 RemaIningcap Isunod or tlhe PRSI 0.0 -0.1 16.6 16.5 1.6 -8.1 11.4 11 9 Memorandum hemn Gronsmintratainnal reserves 297 271 300 330 340 340 350 390 (monthsofin,ports)3Y 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 nlnremston reserves 9.4 9.5 9.5 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.5 12.9 ExpDrtsofgoods andnonfactor servrcs 6945 674.2 695.8 728.3 770.1 825.8 871.0 1036.1 Importsof goods andnormfaciservices 788.6 813.1 860.6 934.7 1004.4 1035.3 1063.0 1214.4 Exportsof gDodsand services 98.1 92.3 90.7 91.3 92.5 92.5 90.6 80 3 lmportsofgoods andservices 110.8 111.3 113.3 117.2 119.4 115.0 110.6 94.1 Currnt account(in percent ofGDP) -153 -201.0 -23.0 -258 -26.2 -22.6 -19.0 -12.3 Overallbalance (in percent of GDP) 9.4 -8.3 -6.6 -6.4 -66 -2.5 -3.6 -2.6 Tamsoftmade (percentegncman) -7 9 4.2 2.1 1.1 3.0 0 2 0.6 -0.8
79 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTON STRA.TGY PAPER
APPENDiX 2C: REAL OUTPUT AND PRICES
__~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I ., ,.II ,dIi iI. I
bNnalGDP at WketFiosE 130,012.0 136,927.8 147,3038 158,332.2 172,311.7 188,041.5 208,033.4 3124166 NbrinaGDPatFactr Cc6t 108,086.0 115,079.8 124,343.2 133,379.5 144,7250 157,973.2 175,599.2 280,231.0 Rod GDPatFar Cos 5,385.7 5,457.4 5,646.1 5,8618 6,115.3 6,410.3 6,733.6 8,703.0 (knA pn tae t-e)
NomralGDPat bket Nces 5.1 5.3 7.6 7.5 8.8 9.1 10.6 7.1 NlGDPatFatCot Z8 6.5 8.0 7.3 8.5 9.2 112 11.7 Red GtP at Facr Cst (0.7) 1.3 3 5 3.8 4.3 4 8 5.0 7.0 Agji8e (9.1) 0.1 3.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 6.1 0.0 Sugar (14.9) (0.2) 32 5.0 5.0 5.0 8.2 0.0 Mrirng andQuaq6ng 5.9 (3.2) Z4 Z5 3.4 3 7 3.8 00 BaSt J1 (19.4) 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gdd Z8 6.1 3.5 3.5 4 8 5.1 5.2 0.0 M ninfarig (11.7) 4.0 37 3.8 60 6.0 80 0.0 CaG1tron 6.6 4.0 6.0 9.0 7.0 8.0 7.0 0.0 Seicis 6.7 Z7 3.5 2.6 3.3 4.1 3.5 0.0 Rliess Coi PimP(ag) 6.1 35 55 5.5 5.5 5.0 50 5.0 Ca,w PtF (wx d) 5.8 4.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.0 50 5.0 GPW (m arkeIxt ) 59 39 4.0 3.5 4.3 4.1 5.3 0.1 GOP elatoriatr cos 3.6 5.1 4.4 3.3 4.0 4.1 5.8 4.4 Tim O traie (7.9) 42 2.1 1.1 30 0.2 0.6 (0.8) Exct Lnit value (1.0) 4.5 2.8 2.0 3.6 20 1.9 0.3 IlqWt uit vaue 7.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 06 1.9 1.3 1.1 Parb c ty CPt(enda *c4: Z6 Z3 2.0 Z2 22 2.2 22 2.1 memo NmalGICPn aketw IceUS$ 71Z1 730.7 7668 797.4 841.5 89Z8 9611 1,290.7 PopMicaoGrwth 0.3 0.3 Z4 Z8 3.3 3.8 4.0 5.9 FWi0 l papWita (G$S) 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.2 102 PMa Gu nmA perCapta 0.3 Z4 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.0 5.9
Soaa Gmen tcd Gofana
80 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
APPENDIX 2D: GUYANA MONETARY SURVEY (in billions of Guyane-sedollars, end of penod)
1.Bank of Guyana Net foreign assets 1/ 21 19.8 23.0 25 6 32.4 35.5 365 39.7 54 2 Foreign assets 54.6 53.8 56.6 66.6 70.6 726 76.8 95.7 Foreign liabilities 34.8 30 8 33.1 34.1 35.2 36.1 37 1 41,5 Netdomestic assets it .5.3 -7.5 .9.1 *14.0 -16.3 -15.5 -14.8 -181 Net credit to public sector -37.4 -38.5 -42.9 -46.4 -44.9 -414 -35.6 -213 Liabilities to commercial banks .15.3 .13.9 -13.5 -14.0 -15.3 -16 2 -19.2 -27 8 Other items net (inrcluding 47.4 46 5 45 4 44.0 42.3 40 6 38.6 29 5 valuation adjustment) 1131 0.0. 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0.0 Currency in circulation 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.7 19 2 21 0 24 9 36.1
11.Banking System Netforeign assets 1/ 22.8 27.1 33.0 41.7 46 1 47.4 50.9 66 7 Bank of Guyana 19 8 23.0 25.6 32.4 35.5 36.5 39.7 54 2 Comrmercial bankrs 3.0 4 0 7.4 9.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 12 5 Netdomestic assets 11 62.6 85 5 65.1 63 7 60.6 7708 97.5 14688 Domestic credit 32.9 38.3 35.4 35.4 41.5 52 9 75 2 137.0 Public sector -25.9 -24.3 -32 1 -38.8 -41.3 -39 9 -40.0 -48.6 Bank of Guyana -37.4 -38.5 -42 9 -464 -44.9 -414 -35.6 -21.3 Commercial banks 116 14 2 108 7.6 3.6 1.5 -4.4 -27 3 Central government 15.4 16.5 16 5 16 5 16.5 16 5 16 5 16.5 Public enterprises andother -3.9 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -23 -2.3 -2 3 Private sector 587 62.6 67.5 74 2 82.8 92.8 115.2 185.5 Other items (net) 1/31 29.8 27.2 29 7 28.3 27 1 24,9 22.4 11.8 Broad money 4t 05.4 92 5 98.1 105 4 114.7 1252 148.4 215 5 Narrow money 24.8 26.5 28.1 30 2 32 9 35 9 42.5 61.8 Of which Currency incirculation 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.7 19.2 21 0 24 9 36 1 Time andsavings deposits 60.6 66 0 70.0 75 2 81.8 89.3 105.9 153 7 (Percentage change from end-period a year ago) Domestic credit 12.9 16 5 -7.5 -0.1 17.4 27.5 42.0 7 7 Pubicssector 33 6.1 -32.2 -20.8 -6.4 3 5 -0.3 :5 3 Private sector 5.2 6.6 7.9 9.9 11.7 12.0 24.1 7 0 Currency in circulation 8.0 6.9 6.0 7 5 8.8 9 1 18.5 5.4 Broad money 4/ 10 9 0.3 6.0 7.5 0.0 9.1 18 5 5 4 (Change relative to broad money at threbeginning of tihe12*mnonth period) Netforeign assets 14.6 5.0 6 4 8.9 4.1 1.1 2.8 2.1 Net domestic assets -36 3.4 -0.4 -1.4 4.7 8.0 15.7 3.3 Domesfic credit 4 9 6 3 -3.1 0.0 5.8 9.9 17.8 4 8 Public sector 1.1 1.8 -8.5 -6 8 -24 1.2 -0.1 -1.2 Private sector 3 8 4.5 5.3 6.8 8.2 8.7 17.9 6.0 Othreritems (net) -8.5 -30 2.7 -1.4 -1.1 -1.9 -2.0 -14 Memorandum items: Income velocity of broad money sl 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 11.5 Gross official reseirves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0 (US$ millions) 295 8 280.9 300.0 330.0 340 0 340.0 350.0 390.0
Sources:Govemment ofGuyana 1/Fur 1997 and 1998. adjusted for transfer of fureign tiabrlles tramOre cerntat bank ts thecentrl govamment. 2/ Thereduction ir 1999 in the central bankrs liabgites tDtire CARICOM Clearing Facility under the HIPC IniWtiate has been incorpsratedintire net fsreig;n assets and sother dsmeshc tabitites afttie BankrofGuyana. 31Including tosses associated with exchrange rate changes and eperationat tosses ofthe centrat bank. 4/Including deposits denominated inU S dollam. 5/ NsminalGOP at market prices divded by tre aeeragestack of money(measured asthe sim pie averag e of Ore current period stock andOre StoCk 12-manOrs earrner). 61/Ratioof oommercial banksdeposits with the central bank to requiredreserves.
81 THE GUYAHA POVERTY REDUCTO STRATEGY PAPER
PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM, 2000-2001 (GSmillion)
EXPENDITURE2000 LATESTESTIMATE 2001
PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL METPStP 20419J 034.0 120M53 18034.2 7983.2 10011.9 TRANSFER 1200.0 00 1200.0 2680.0 0.0 2600.0 TOTALPSP 216193 t334.0 13205.3 206342 7903.2 12689g CENTRALGOVERNMENT 16707. 833U4.0 0373.0 17990.6 7903.2 100073 PttBUCCORPORATIONS 4911.5 0.0 4911.5 2602.6 0.0 2602.6
ECONOMICSERVICES 6110.1 325.0 5793.1 4146.1 394.0 37S2.1 AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY &FISHING Soume 3250 22 14i3945 3.59 AgrLSecrtoran IDB 106.0 1000 60 54.0 51.6 24 Adnrin0aeMand Managermen IDB 00 00 0.0 20.7 28.7 00 Agd.Developrmentfitng ) LOCAL 5.0 00 50 10.0 00 100 AgrIDeveopment (GDF) LOCAL 5.0 0.0 5.0 55 0.0 5.5 A91Equ*rmnt (Regions) LOCAL 40 0.0 40 00 0.0 0.0 AgdiSetorHybndLoan IDB 2400 130.0 1100 300.1 200.0 1001 AQuaeuturrDevepnenl LOCAL 120 00 12.0 26.4 10.3 161 Ardia lnsert,na5on/ NDDP LOCAL 5.0 0.0 5.0 6.5 0.0 65 Drelnap &Irrgabon (Regionn) LOCAL 248.0 00 2480 2386 0.0 2386 Geodet Survays LOCAL 0.O 00 80 g.0 0.0 90 GRDB-C2CapdW2tWa LOCAL 15.6 0.0 15.6 15.0 00 15.0 MardsRice Ming Complex tAPGRNT 14 00 1.4 00 00 00 GuyanaSchWofAintdtume LOCAL 70 00 7.0 72 00 7.2 GUYSUCO-CapIIWors LOCAL 41542 0.0 41542 2300.0 0.0 2300.0 Mahalcn4 WotrcDny-AbaryPmjewt tTALY 23.0 0.0 23.0 35.0 0.0 350 ntnuaedaSavannahs OAS 300 20.0 100 17.1 9.6 7.5 ManneDevelnpmnent LOCAL 20.0 0.0 200 27.0 00 27.0 NanndAgrn. Researcthlnsltn(NARI) LOCAL 10.0 0.0 10.0 535 355 180 NabSnlLand Regialon LOCAL 180 0.0 18.0 18.0 0.0 190 NewGuana Makeng CoaporabDn LOCAL 0.5 00 0.5 3.0 0.0 3.0 Rehab.ofDranage 6 diagnoAmnas LOCAUEHIPC 5750 0.0 5750 625.0 0.0 625.0 ExlensionServces LOCAiWEHIPC 0.8 0.0 0.8 108.0 00 108.0 RuralSupport Prnot IFAD 80.0 750 5.0 50.3 583 0.0 MANUFACTURING 40.0 40.0 ml 0u0 54 IndushtalDenetnpmnr LOCAlIEHPC 40.0 0.0 40 0 542 00 54.2
82 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM, 2000-2005 (GSmillon)
BUDGET2000 BUDGET2001 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
MINING 509 6 0.0 509.6 146.0 0.0 146.0 Dredging LOCAUEHIPC 80.0 0.0 80.0 1060 0.0 106.0 LindenMIning Enterpnse LOCAL 31.5 0.0 31.5 40.0 00 40.0 BertiiceMining Enterpnise LOCAL 398.1 0.0 398.1 0.0 0.0 00
ECONOMICINFRASTRUCTURE 560L7 3285.8 2322.9 3813.8 1741.6 2072.3
POWER 27.5 0.0 27.5 26.4 _0 26.4 PnwerExtension (Regions) LOCAL 11.5 0.0 115 6.8 0.0 68 PowerGeneration LOCAL 16.0 00 16.0 16.0 00 16.0 PowerPlant LOCAL 0.0 00 0.0 3.6 00 3.6
TRANSPORT&COMMUNICATION 37681 18301 1938.0 2410.9 6607 1750.2 Adrministration&Supervysion LOCAL 40 0.0 4.0 247 225 2.2 AirTratficSerfvie LOCAL 0.0 00 0.0 2.3 00 2.3 BlackBush PaiderRoad LOCAL 15.0 00 15.0 15.0 00 15.0 BinticaltssanojMahdiaRoad LOCAL 150 0.0 150 405 0.0 40.5 BridgeRehabilitabon IDB 179.2 128.8 50.4 299.2 215.7 83 5 DemeraraHarouru ridge LOCAL 300 0.0 300 50.0 00 50.0 DredgingsPldtLaunchins LOCAL 80.0 00 80.0 85.0 0.0 85.0 EssequiboCoastRoad IDAJLOC 6670 548.0 119.0 108.1 19.5 88.7 FerryServices EU 90 0 0.0 90.0 44.5 40.0 45 GuyanaOiaCompany LOCAL 107.2 0.0 107.2 119.2 0.0 1192 Georgelown/SoesdykeiRosignol Road IDB 740.0 540.0 200.0 132.1 123.3 8.8 GNNL-Capital Works LOCAL 5.9 0.0 59 2.1 00 2.1 GNSC-Capital Wrks LOCAL 53.2 0.0 53.2 392 0.0 392 GPOC-Capital Works LOCAL 82 0.0 8.2 2.2 0.0 2.2 GBC LOCAL 30.4 0.0 30 4 45 00 4.5
83 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
PUBLIC SECTQR INESTMWNT PROGRtAM200D2105D (GS rillon)
BUDGET2000 BUDGET2Z0 PROJECI 1OIAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOIAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
Hneiand Ajirstp LOCJAEHIPC 150 00 1DS0 180 0.0 180 LaidTraspogt LOCAL 254 0.0 254 27.2 00 27.2 ltm'n Audit I0D 88 8.8 00 &8 58 00 tLad vleopnl l onis) LOCAL 25.0 0.0 25 0 1.9 0.0 1.9 Larid&Wa1 T lnsp(fpons) LOCAL 21.6 0.0 21.6 11.8 00 11.8 Lard Tr$itt LOCAIJEHIPC 6.7 0.0 6.7 281 0.0 2&1 Mbbietemfiad LOCALEIEHPC 40.0 0.0 40.0 250 0.0 250 Misela s Pa LOCAL 4400 0.0 440.0 55O0 0.0 55D.0 Narvig Aicds LOCAL 20.0 0.0 200 200 0.0 20.0 ei orrigodFFeyVesseIs LOCAL 50.0 00 50.0 600 0.0 6MO ningofShips LOCAL 00 00 5D.0 650 0.0 650 lalAir Ned EU 215 20.0 3.5 19.1 180 1.1 RDaMainteance Fund LOCAL 40.0 0.0 400 504 0.0 504 FWa (RpIors) LOCAIJIPC 237.5 0.0 37.5 Z g0 0 0 2290 SeoesdiykAnden Rbhay CDB 639.5 5845 55.0 2359 215.9 2D.O SIngs &Wwve LOCAL 6D0 0.0 60.0 5&O 0.0 5.0 UrbanFRDads& n LOCAL 40.0 00 40.0 40.0 0.0 40.0
WATER 18131 14557 357.4 13766 JQ9. 295.7 EasiDwa WaWmCvaw,c ID0 3CO.0 250.0 50.0 143.0 122.0 21.0 Gw e0bRe0rnial &eage 1a3 173.6 159.0 14.6 563 55.5 08 SoidWastePrec IDB 19.8 180 1.8 5O 5.0 00 PFueWaer Supyy- GDF LOCAL 50 0.0 5.0 2 9 0 0 2 9 PRzeWaterSiy-Newnstdm EU 143.0 1250 180 48.0 30.0 160 NRuSWawtff(Hinwtm LOCAJEHIPC 200 00 20.0 15.0 0.0 150 Watr Tenca Assstao COBJD 107 9037 195.0 1OS34 868.4 1680 Wai SLWiy-papons, LOCAL 53.0 0.0 53.0 S5O 00 530
84 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY FAPER
PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM, 2000.2005 (GSmillon)
BUDGET2000 BUDGET2001 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
GENERAL PUBLIC SERVICES 4525.6 1379.0 3146.6 76343 2021.1 5652.2
ADMINISTRATION S PLANNING 1946.5 38Z0 I9OZ 36220 2Z7A 3344.5 Administralion S Managenment LOCAL 32.0 0.0 320 4Z0 0.0 4Z0 BuildIngs LOCAL 5.6 0. 5.6 21.0 0.0 21.0 Buiklings-Administration LOCAL 45 0° 4.5 127 00 12Z7 BureauoftSWdards LOCAL 15.0 0.0 150 Z5 0.0 2.5 Diretrof PubllcProsecution LOCAL 20 00 Z0 Z2 0.0 2.2 Equipnent LOCAL 17.0 0.0 17.0 3.7 0.0 3.7 Fumiture&EqoLipaent LOCAL 31.1 0.0 31.1 39.2 0.0 39.2 Govemment Buidngs LOCAL 102.7 0.0 1027 85.5 00 85.5 Guyana NationalService (GNS) LOCAL 10.0 0.0 10.0 00 0.0 00 HydrometemobgicalServices LOCAL 22 0.0 2.2 3 2 0.0 3.2 Expanded Economic Opportunities Proj. USAID 0.0 0.0 0.0 273.2 270.0 3.2 CatcmmResource &Management Program CIDA 24.0 18.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Loanto Public Corporation LOCAL 1200.0 0.0 1200.0 2S20.0 0.0 2600.0 MmorWorks LOCAL 25.0 00 25.0 10 0.0 130 Offi e&ResidenceofltePrsident LOCAL 3.0 0.0 3.0 IZ9 0.0 129 OfficeEquipment LOCAL 00 0.0 0.0 44 0.0 4.4 OfficeEquLpmentandFumitume LOCAL 0.0 00 0.0 1.8 0.0 1,8 Ofce Fumitureand Equipmnt LOCAL 0.0 00 0.0 0.8 0.0 08 OfriceofOmbusrnan LOCAL 00 0.0 0.0 04 0.0 04 ParDment Office LOCAL 5.0 0.0 5.0 6 0 0.0 6.0 Public ServiceAppelate Tdtunal LOCAL 0 00 2.0 20 0.0 20 Publ'icServ Comindssion LOCAL 20 00 20 22 00 22 Public UUDtiesCommission LOCAL 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0 0 1.2
85 THE GUYANA PovEiTY IREDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM, 2000-2005 (G$million)
BUDGET2000 BUDGET2001 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL'
SeconrdayInfrtruclum IOA/LOCAL 0.0 00 0.0 21 00 2.1 Natunal Insuranre Scheene LOCAL 4Z6 0.0 42.6 0,0 O.0 0.0 StudentLoan Furd LOCAL 350.0 0.0 350.0 475.0 0.0 475.0 Supremetlagisrab Court LOCAL 35.0 0.0 350 5.5 00 5.5 Stengthingt eRegistry LOCAL 32.0 200 12.0 8.5 7.4 1.1 TeachingService Comrmrsiorn LOCAL 3.8 00 3.8 l,0 00 1.0
CONTRIBUTIONTOINTERNATIONAL AGENCIES 750 0.0 750 3600 00 360.0 CarnbbeanOeveopent Bank LOCAL 45.0 0.0 45.0 180.0 0.0 180.0 Inter-AmerianInvesunentCororation LOCAL 0.0 00 0.0 180.0 0.0 1800 Inter-Airercan DevelopmrentBank LOCAL 30.0 0.0 30.0 180.0 0.0 180.0
PUBUCSAFETY 190.1 00 190.1 117,4 00 15i34 Agr Equpnent -Prisos LOCAL 7.2 0.0 7.2 11t 0.0 11 Buwloings-Prisons LOCAL 25.0 0.0 25.0 125 0.0 12.5 Comllm.Equiiment -F[e LOCAL 1.9 0.0 1.9 35 0.0 3.5 Eqtmer a Fumibre -Poice LOCAL 9.0 0.0 90 5.5 0.0 5.5 Equipfment&Fwture -Fie LOCAL 1.0 00 1.0 1o O.0 1.0 Equ4inent (HomeAffairs) LOCAL 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 Equipment-Poroe LOCAL 28.0 0.0 280 300 0.0 30.0 FbeAAmbulances&Statbns LOCAL lao 00 180 10.0 0.0 10.0 GeneralRegistarOfico LOCAL 4.1 00 4.1 5.0 0.0 50 Land& WatBr Tramnsport -Fire LOCAL 17.0 0.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 39.0 Land&WaterTransport-Pnisors LOCAL 1Z2 0.0 1Z2 25.0 0.0 25.0 Lard &Transport Equtfpnent - Police LOCAL 20.0 0.0 20.0 45 0.0 4.5 OtherEquipment - Prisons LOCAL 5.7 00 5.7 4,5 00 45 Polie Statina &Buiidntqs LOCAL 35.0 00 35.0 7.5 0.0 75 Tools& Equipwent -Fire LOCAL 5.0 0.0 50 6.8 0.0 68
86 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM, 2000-2005 (G$million)
BUDGET2000 BUDGET2001 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
OTHER FIXEDINVESTMENT 2313.9 13410 9730 35350 17437 1791.2 Bas0cNeedsTrust Fund CDO 117.4 100.0 17.4 150.0 130.0 20.0 Corentyne&Essequibo (Sea Defense) IDB 915.0 776 0 139.0 750.0 646.0 1040 Emergencytorks (SeaDefense) LOCALtEHIPC 325.0 0.0 325.0 650.0 0.0 650.0 Essequbo 8 West Demerara EU 60.0 60.0 00 8.6 7.1 1.5 ELNinoPmject IDA 4463 4000 46.3 955.2 613.7 341.5 GO-Invest LOCAL 30 0 0.0 30.0 1.3 0.0 1.3 Guyana RevenueAuthority LOCAL 5.7 0.0 5.7 85 0 00 85.0 GUYOIL-Caprfa Works LOCAL 107.2 0.0 107.2 1583 00 158.3 NGOSupport ProgrammePL480 USAID 7.0 0.0 7.0 587 00 58.7 Poverty Programme LOCALtEHIPC 235.3 0.0 235.3 250.0 0.0 250.0 Seaand River Defense LOCAL 100 0.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 West Coast Befbice (SeaDefense) CDB 55.0 5.0 50 0 458.0 3470 111 0
SOCIAL SERViCES 5367.0 33443 2027 5040.0 3826.6 12134 EDUCATION 3061.4 22623 799 2 3056.7 25519 504.8 Adult Edtcafion Assocation LOCAL 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 00 0.6 Building- NafronaiUbrary LOCAL 25.0 0.0 25.0 120 0.0 120 BuramtsSchool ofArts LOCAL 3.0 0.0 3o 20 0.0 2.0 CamegieSchool of Home Ecoriomlcs LOCAL 2.0 0.0 2.0 29 0.0 2.9 CntchlowLabourCotege LOCALtEHIPC 12 0.0 1.2 17 0.0 1.7 Devetvment of TextBooks LOCAUEHIPC 11.1 0.0 11.1 9.5 0.0 9.5 Fumiture&EqulIpent LOCAL 35.0 0.0 35.0 14.2 0.0 14.2 Fumiture&Equipment -Education LOCAL 00 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 2.3 G.I.T.C LOCAUEHIPC 3.0 0.0 30 3.0 0.0 3.0 G T.1 LOCAUEHIPC 10.0 0.0 10.0 45.0 00 45.0
87 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
PUBLIC SECTORINVESTMENT PROGRAM, 2000-2005 (G$million)
BUDGET2000 BUDGET2001 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
UndenTechnical Institute LOCAUEHIPC 100 0.0 10.0 5.0 00 50 MuseumDevelopment LOCAL 8.0 0.0 8.0 4.5 0.0 4 5 NationalArchives LOCAL 1 0 00 1.0 2.1 0.0 2.1 NationalSchool of Dance LOCAL 1.0 0.0 10 1.0 0.0 10 NewAmsterdam Technical Insbtute LOCAL 35 0.0 35 3.5 0.0 3.5 Nursery,Primary &Secondary Schools LOCAL 750 00 75.0 45.0 0.0 45.0 OtherEquipnent LOCAL 2.4 00 24 1.5 0.0 15 PnmaryEducation Prject IDB 1558.0 1430.0 1280 1909.4 1763.4 146.0 President'sCoHege LOCAL 5.7 00 5.7 5.8 0.0 5.8 ResourceDevelopment Centre LOCAL 11.0 0.0 11.0 45 0.0 4.5 GuyanaBasic Education Trainin,g CIDA 1500 150.0 0.0 27.6 27.5 0.1 SchoolBuildings (Regions) LOCAL 226.1 0.0 226.1 550 0.0 55.0 SchoolFunniture &Equipment LOCAL 200 00 20.0 3.1 00 81 SchoolFurnitue (Regions) LOCAL 35.0 0.0 35.0 B.5 0.0 85 Guyana EducationAcess Projecrt DFID 220.0 220.0 0.0 255.0 255.0 0.0 SecondaryRetommProject IDA 539.4 462.3 77.1 5596 5060 536 University of Guyana- Berbioe LOCAL 90.0 00 90.0 45.0 0.0 45.0 University of Guyana-Turkeyen LOCAL 15.0 00 150 23.0 0.0 23.0
HEALTH 316.4 800 236.4 126.0 186 1074 Buildings -Health LOCAL 32.0 0.0 3Z0 125 0.0 1Z5 Buildings-Health (Regions) LOCAUEHIPC 110.4 0.0 110.4 65.0 0.0 65.0 Equipment(Regions) LOCAUEHIPC 38.9 00 38 9 4 3 0.0 4 3 Equipment- Health LOCAL 177 0.0 17.7 9.3 0.0 9.3 Fumiture&Equipment LOCAL 1.5 0.0 1.5 52 00 5.2
88 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
PUBLIC SECTORINVESTMENT PROGRAM, 2000 2005 (G$million)
BUDGET2000 BUDGET2001 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
Fumdture&Equipment -Heafth LOCAL 25.9 0.0 25.9 2.4 0.0 24 TechnicaiAssistano IDB 90.0 800 100 27.3 18.6 8.7
SIMAP 1107.1 950.0 157.1 938.0 7750 1630 Simap-Phasell , IDB 11071 950.0 157.1 938.0 7750 1630
HOUSING&COMMUNITY SERVICES 882.0 52.0 830.0 919.3 481.1 4382 Amerindian Development LOCAL 650 0.0 65.0 55.0 00 55.0 LowIncome Settlement IDB 64.0 52.0 120 5052 4811 241 Building- CulturalCentre LOCAL 7.5 0.0 7.5 8.2 0.0 82 Infraslructure Develpment &Building LOCAL 650.0 0.0 650.0 175.0 00 1750 Intrastructum Development LOCAL 4.0 0.0 4,0 20.0 00 20.0 InfrestructureDevelopnent (Regions) LOCAL 60 00 60 4.5 00 4 5 LandDevelopment (Regions) LOCALIEHIPC 48.0 0.0 48.0 280 00 28.0 NationalTrust LOCAL 2.0 00 2.0 2.9 00 2.9 YouthandSports LOCAL 13.5 0.0 13.5 820 00 82.0 Tourism Development LOCAL 220 0.0 22.0 38.5 00 38 5
Source:State PFanring Secetariat
89 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
(GSminllon)
BUDGET 2002 BUDGET 2003 BUDGET 2004 BUDGET 2005
PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
TOTALPSIP 27,157.0 16,323.9 11338.9 32,910.7 18,625.1 14,342.4 34,288.9 19,964.0 14,409.8 33,685.0 19,162.5 14,611.5 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 21,947.5 12,5233 9,429.4 21,735.6 15,205.1 12,837.3 28,591.4 11,14.0 12,517.3 28,018.9 15,4t2.5 12,645.4 PUBUC CORPORATIONS 5,709.5 3,800.0 1,909.5 5,225.1 3,420.0 1,805.1 5,692.5 3,800.0 1,892.5 5,686.1 3,700.0 1,966.1
ECONOMIC SERVICES 7,555.7 4,413.5 3,148.0 7,831.5 4,310.7 3,632.6 8,620.3 4,813.0 3,764.8 8,463.7 4,545.0 3,926.3 AGRPCULTURE, FORESTRY&FISHING Source 7Z3047 4 4135 2 897Z0 77085 4..,3107 3404s 8,3923 486n0 3536 8,1787 454504 3S413 AgnculturalSuppctSecvicesProgram IDB 33.0 28.5 4.5 374.6 342.1 325 529.5 4950 345 515.2 475.0 402 Agri. Development (Regons) LOCAL 15 2 00 15.2 15.5 0.0 155 162 00 16.2 17.1 00 171 Agi DeveIopment (GDF) LOCAL 65 0.0 6.5 6.8 0.0 68 72 00 7.2 8.1 00 81 Agn Equipmeni (Regons) LOCAL 00 0.0 58 00 00 68 0.0 0.0 7.5 00 00 76 Aquaculure Developrneni LOCALIHIPC 36.0 0.0 36 0 37.0 00 37 0 38.0 00 380 40 0 0.0 40 0 ArMificallnseminabon/NDDP LOCAL 75 00 7.5 7.9 00 7.9 85 00 8.5 8.9 0.0 8.9 Dranage&Irrgabon (Regions) LOCAL 150.2 00 150.2 215.0 0.0 2150 217.0 00 2170 220.0 0.0 220.0 GeodeXc Surveys LOCAL 9.2 00 9.2 9.5 0.0 9 5 10.2 00 102 109 00 10.9 GRDB-CaprlalWorks LOCAL 155 0.0 155 15.8 0.0 15.8 15.9 0.0 159 162 0.0 16.2 Guyana SchocoloAgricullure LOCAL 155 0.0 15.5 15.9 00 15.9 16.4 00 16.4 17.2 00 17.2 GUYSUCO -Capital Works IDNCDOBAFID 5,400.0 3,800.0 1,600.0 5,070.0 3,420.0 1,650.0 5,550.0 3.800 0 1.750 0 5,520.0 3.700 0 1.820 0 Mahaica-Mahaicony-AbaryProjecl ITALYALOCAL 237.5 1925 45.0 1962 150.2 460 248.0 200.0 48.0 490 00 49.0 Intermedale Savannahs OASILOCAL 48 0 32.5 155 51.9 33.4 18.5 20.2 00 20 2 22.5 0.0 22.5 Manne Developmeni LOCAL 45.0 0.0 45 0 56.0 00 56 0 58.0 0.0 580 61 0 0.0 61.0 National Agri ReearchInsiIuIe(NARo LOCALIE4HIPC 100.0 0.0 1000 112.0 0.0 112.0 1130 00 113.0 1150 00 1150 National Land Regstration (L&SC) LOCAL 24 2 00 24.2 24 8 00 24 8 251 00 251 25 1 0.0 251 New Guyana Marketing Corporahon LOCAL 12.5 0.0 12 5 15.5 00 15.5 15.9 0.0 15.9 18.2 00 18.2 Rehab.dDrainage&IrrabonAreas LOCAUE-HIPC 550.0 0.0 550.0 875.0 0.0 8750 890.0 0.0 890.0 8980 00 8980 EHension Serv,ces LOCALIE*HIPC 235.0 0.0 235.0 240.0 0.0 240.0 242.0 0.0 242.0 243.0 0.0 243 0 RuralSupporlPrject IFAD 3639 3600 39 3691 365.0 4.1 3712 3680 32 373.3 370.0 33
MANUFACTURING j1^Q 0 22 80 S 22 22800 0 0 228 Indjslrial Development LOCAL/E4HIPC 171.0 0.0 171.0 228.0 0.0 228.0 228 0 00 228.0 285 0 0.0 285 0
90 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTnON STRATEGY PAPER
i.~~S., tI =;12iL.ia .. 'II (GS milgon)
BUDGET2002 BUDGEI2003 BUDGET2004 BUDGET2005
PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL MINING u 0.0 80 0 .0 0 0. 0 0 0 Linden Mining Enterpnse LOCAL 40 0 00 40.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 00 00 00 0.0 00 Berbice Mining Enterpnse LOCAL 40.0 00 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 00 0.0 00
ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE 7,9?32 6,384.9 2,638.3 11,4893 7,996.0 3,494.3 11,916.7 8,296.0 3,620.7 11,120.9 7,686.0 3,638.9 POWER 1315j4 11000 2154 16.0 1150.0 Zii 12Z1.5 1055 21i 1037.3 82KU 217 Power Extension (Regons) LOCAL 69 00 69 7.2 00 7 2 7.3 0.0 73 7.5 00 75 PowerGeneration LOCAL 18.5 0.0 18.5 188 0.0 188 19.2 0.0 .192 19.8 00 19.8 UnderservedAeaElecinticationProg ID8 1,2900 1,100.0 1900 1,3400 1,150.0 190.0 1,245.0 1,0550 190.0 1.0100 8200 1900 InlormatinCominicabionTechnology 108 4450 3800 65.0 1,140.0 9500 1900 1,440.0 1,250.0 190.0 1,540.0 1,350.0 1900 Miroenterpriseproject EU 1154 1140 14 1536 1520 1.6 1613 159.2 2.1 1643 162.1 22
TRANSPORT &COMMUNICATION 4380.5 2.641.9 1.738.6 7392.3 4810 .0 25644.3 6.944. 4327,0 2.617. AirTransport Reform Program IDB 6720 616 0 56.0 272 5 270 0 25 79 6 77 0 26 87 7 85.0 2.7 Black Bush PodderRoad LOCAL/E-HIPC 75.0 00 75.0 77 0 00 77.0 78.0 00 780 82.0 00 82 0 Barbtcassano/Mahda Road LOCAL/E-HIPC 95.0 00 95 0 102 0 0.0 102 0 105.0 00 105 0 109 0 00 109 0 Bridge Rehabdidation IDB 9G00 845 0 55.0 935.0 850 0 85.0 1,010.0 915 0 95.0 1,021.0 920 0 1010 DemeraraHarbour Bridge EU 48.9 00 489 498 00 49.8 50.1 0.0 50.1 51.5 0.0 515 Dredgng LOCAL/E-HIPC 135.0 00 135.0 365 0 00 365.0 368 0 0.0 368 0 372.0 0.0 372 0 FerryServices LOCAL 800 0.0 80.0 1122 00 112.2 115.5 0.0 1155 1201 00 120.1 4-Lane Harbour Bndge/Georgelown Road CDB 2100 190.0 20 0 495.0 450.0 45 0 75.0 70.0 50 50 00 50 West Demerara Highway CDB 93.0 85 0 80 805.0 760.0 45.0 845.0 795.0 50.0 872.0 820.0 52.0 RehabillationofNrhaica-Rosignol Road IDB 890.0 845.0 450 1,460.0 1,330.0 1300 1,810.0 1,650.0 1600 1,597.0 1,452.0 145.0 GNNL-CapdalWorks LOCAL 18 0.0 1.8 1.6 00 1.6 1.5 00 1.5 1.6 0.0 1.6 GNSC -Capdal Works LOCAL 40 2 0.0 40 2 385 0.0 38 5 37 8 00 37.8 38.5 0.0 385 GPOC-CapdalWorks LOCAL 17 0.0 17 1.2 00 12 11 00 1.1 1.2 00 12 GBC LOCAL 33 5 00 33 5 34 2 0.0 34 2 35 8 0.0 35 8 36 8 00 36.8
91 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
(GS mDlon)
BUDGET2002 BUDGEr2003 BUDOET2004 BUDGET2005
PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
Hinte4iandAkslnp LOCAL/E-HIPC 750 00 750 860 0.0 85.0 88.0 0.0 88.0 90.0 0.0 900 Land Transport LOCAL 33.2 0.0 33 2 34 2 0.0 34 2 35.8 0.0 35.8 36.4 00 36.4 InlernalAudi IDB 5.5 5.5 00 2.3 00 2.3 25 00 2.5 2.6 00 26 Land&WaterTranspoul LOCAIE-HIPC 1500 0.0 150.0 1S00 0.0 1600 168.0 0.0 168.0 172.0 00 172.0 GeorgeltwnlTimein Bypass IDB 57.7 55.4 2.3 1,280.0 l11500 130.0 1,504.0 1,352.0 152.0 1,145.0 1,050.0 95.0 Miscelaneous Roads LOCAUJE-HIPC 300 0 0.0 300.0 540.0 0.0 540.0 545.0 0.0 545 0 550 0 0.0 550.0 Navigatonal Aids LOCAL 23.8 0.0 23.8 22.6 0.0 22 6 20.8 0.0 20.8 21.2 0.0 21.2 Reconciioning d FerryVesselr. LOCAL 5561 0.0 551 55 2 0.0 55.2 55.3 0.0 55.3 56 3 0.0 56.3 Reconditioning dShips LOCAL 52.1 0.0 52.1 49.8 0.0 498 48.8 0.0 48.8 49.2 0.0 49.2 Road Mainltenano Fund LOCAL 52 2 52.2 55 2 0.0 55.2 56 3 0.0 56.3 57.3 0.0 57.3 Roads (Regions) LOCALIE4HIPC 200.0 0.0 200.0 25560 0.0 255.0 260.0 0.0 260.0 262 0 0.0 262.0 Stelings&Wharves LOCAL 57.5 0.0 57.5 59.2 00 59.2 60.5 0.0 60.5 61.2 0.0 61.2 Urban Roads &Drainage LOCAL 42.3 00 42.3 44.8 0.0 44.8 45.9 0.0 45.9 462 0.0 462
WATER 22273 1.643.0 584.3 2.731.0 2.035.0 M.0 31419 .2382.0 759.9 3138. 2438.0 700.8 SdidWaslePrqect IDB 192.1 1850 7.1 650.0 560.0 100.0 1002.0 850.0 152.0 1102.0 950.0 152.0 GS6WC Maintenance Program II IDB 229.0 208.0 21.0 232.0 210 0 22 0 275.0 250.0 25.0 283.0 265.0 18.0 IrprovemendinSanitation LOCALJE*HIPC 98.0 0.0 98.0 105.0 00 1050 110.0 0.0 110.0 115.0 0.0 115.0 Pure Water Supply -GDF LOCAL 8.2 0.0 8.2 8.8 0.0 8.8 89 0.0 8.9 9.8 00 9.8 Urban Devopnment Prcecl iDB 165.0 150.0 15.0 187.2 170.0 17.2 189.0 172.0 17.0 193.0 175.0 18.0 RehadolRuralWatersystems LOCAL/E4HIPC 150.0 0.0 150.0 155.0 0.0 1550 157.0 00 157.0 162.0 0.0 162.0 WaterSupptyTechnicalAssislancefRehabCDB/EUADA 1,385.0 1,100.0 285.0 1,393,0 1,1050 288.0 1,400.0 1,1100 290.0 1,274.0 1,048.0 226.0
92 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
(GS millIon)
BUDGER2002 BUDGET2003 BUDGET2004 BUDGET2005
PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
GENERAL PUBLIC SERVICES 3,759.5 1,212.1 2,497.4 4,7108 1,295.5 3,415.3 4,490.4 1,442.3 3,125.5 4,708.8 1,648.8 3,139.4
ADb1NISTRATION &PLANNING 13247 55.4 1269.3 1.602.4 1 25.5 i476.9 1.288.4 1423 1.146.1 935.8 148.8 787.0 Adrinistration &Management LOCAL 22.5 0.0 22 5 22.6 0.0 22 6 22 8 0.0 22 8 22.9 0.0 22 9 Rehabiliation Buildngs&Electncal Wiring LOCAL 600 00 600 87.0 0.0 87.0 88.0 0.0 880 91.0 0.0 910 Buildngs-Adminiration LOCAL 19.5 00 19.5 18.9 00 18.9 18.6 0.0 18.6 18.8 00 188 Bureau d Standards LOCAL 2.8 00 2.8 2.8 0.0 28 28 00 2.8 2.9 0.0 2.9 Direclorco Public Proseculion LOCAL 11 0.0 If 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.2 00 1.2 Equipment LOCAL 2.4 00 2.4 2.5 00 2.5 2.5 0.0 2.5 2.6 0.0 26 Eipulpment - GDF LOCAL 58.0 0.0 58.0 65.0 00 65.0 72.0 0.0 72.0 72.0 0.0 72.0 Fumriure & Equipment LOCAL 30.2 00 30.2 29.8 0.0 29 8 29.4 0.0 294 29.8 00 29.8 Govemment Buildngs LOCAL 40.0 00 40.0 48.6 0.0 48 6 47.9 0.0 47.9 48.9 00 48.9 Hydrometeroogca IServces LOCAL 38 0.0 3.8 4.2 0.0 4.2 4.8 0.0 4.8 4.9 00 4.9 Caricom Secretariat Headrquaders Edg. GRANT/LOCAL 540.0 0.0 540.0 700 0 0.0 700.0 375 0 00 375 0 0.0 0.0 00 Loan toPublic Corporation LOCAL 0.0 00 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 MinorWorkrs LOCAL 28.8 0.0 288 302 0.0 30.2 31 2 0.0 31.2 32.8 0.0 32.8 Office&ResidenrcecdthePresident LOCAL 5.8 00 58 62 0.0 6.2 65 0.0 65 6.8 0.0 6.8 Office Equipment LOCAL 0.7 00 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.6 06 0.0 06 0.7 0.0 0.7 Office Equipment and Fumdure LOCAL 0.3 00 03 0.3 0.0 03 0 3 0.0 03 0.4 0.0 0.4 Office Furniture and Equipment LOCAL 6.8 0.0 6 8 6.7 00 67 6.6 0.0 6 6 6.7 0.0 6.7 Office d Obusman LOCAL 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.0 1.3 13 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.0 1.4 Parliament Offioe LOCAL 5.8 0.0 58 62 00 6.2 6.5 0.0 6.5 6.6 0.0 66 Prqetd Developnent &Assistance LOCAL 72.0 00 72.0 73.0 00 73.0 75.0 00 75.0 76.0 0.0 76.0 Public Serce Commission LOCAL 2.3 00 23 2.3 0.0 23 2.4 00 2.4 2.5 0.0 2.5 Public Utldies Commission LOCAL 1.3 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 13 1.4 0.0 1.4 15 0.0 1.5
93 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
(GSmflHon)
BUDGET'2eo2 BUDGET 2003 BUDGET2004 BUDGET 200
PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
SecondaryInlrastrudure CDB 57.7 554 2.3 130.7 125.5 5.2 147.7 142.3 54 154.4 148.8 56 National Insurance Scheme LOCAL 16.0 0.0 15.0 16.0 0.0 16.0 16.0 0.0 160 16.0 0.0 160 Student Loan Fund LOCAL 2822 0.0 282.2 272 1 00 272.1 245.2 0.0 245.2 250.2 0.0 2502 SuprereMagistrate Court LOCAL 48 8 0.0 48 8 55 9 0.0 55.9 65.2 0.0 65.2 66.8 0.0 668 Teaching Service Commission LOCAL 45 00 4.5 46 00 4.6 4.8 00 4.8 51 0.0 51 Vechicular WeighlControl Programme LOCAL 10.0 0.0 10.0 125 00 125 12.8 00 12.8 12.9 0.0 12.9
PUBLIC SAFETY 22 Q 2SM2 3i1m 0 3 i2 0. 2u. i 35i5 0. 3 Agi.Equipment-PPnsons LOCAL 115 0.0 115 12.9 00 12.9 15.8 00 15.8 159 00 15.9 Buildngs -Pnsons LOCAL 42.9 0.0 42.9 45 9 00 45.9 48.9 0.0 489 492 0.0 49.2 Comm Equipmenl-Fire LOCAL 2.2 0.0 22 2.2 0.0 22 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.4 0.0 24 Equipmenl &Fumdure -Police LOCAL 122 0.0 12.2 128 00 12.8 132 0.0 132 13.5 0.0 13.5 Equipment&Fumiture-Fire LOCAL 07 0.0 07 08 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.0 II 1.2 00 12 Equipment(HomeAHairs) LOCAL 1.2 0.0 12 13 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.0 1.4 Equipment-Pdoice LOCAL 68.9 0.0 68.9 78.5 0.0 78.5 95.6 00 95.6 110.2 0.0 1102 AmNulances&FireSlations LOCAL 268 0.0 26.8 273 00 27.3 30.2 0.0 302 459 0.0 459 General Regstrar Office LOCAL 7.9 0.0 7.9 8.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 0.0 8.0 12.5 0.0 12.5 Land &Water Transporl -Fire LOCAL 189 00 189 19.1 0.0 19.1 19.2 0.0 19.2 19.3 0.0 19.3 Land &Water Transporl -Prsons LOCAL 128 00 128 13.2 0.0 13.2 13 5 00 13.5 13.9 00 13.9 Land &Transpol Equipment -Police LOCAL 28.3 0.0 28.3 30.2 0.0 30.2 30.8 0.0 30.8 35.9 0.0 35.9 Olher Equipment -Pnsons LOCAL 5.8 0.0 5.8 5.6 0.0 56 5.4 0.0 54 55 0.0 55 PoiceSlations&Buildings LOCAL 48.3 0.0 483 502 0.0 50.2 55.1 0.0 55.1 599 0.0 59.9 Tods &Equipmene -Fire LOCAL 78 0.0 78 8.2 0.0 8.2 85 0.0 8.5 8.8 00 88
94 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
(GS millon)
BUDGET 2002 BUDGET 2003 BUDGET 2004 BUDGET 2005 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL OTHER FI'ED INVESTMENT 2.1386 1.206. 931.9 2.792 2 1.170.0 1i622.2 2.3.1 1300.0 I.. 3.3755 1.500. 1.956 Basic Needs Trust Fund CDB 2531 190 0 631 2821 220 0 62.1 310.2 250.0 60.2 310.8 250 0 60 8 EastCoaslDemerara(SeaDefense) LOCAL 100.0 0.0 1000 215.0 0.0 2150 2170 0.0 2170 2250 0.0 2250 EmergencyWorks(SeaDefense) LOCALIE-HIPC 3250 0.0 3250 8150 0.0 8150 828.2 00 828.2 8672 0.0 8672 Sea Defense Program EU 865 5 850.0 155 968 2 950 0 18.2 1,070 5 1050.0 20.5 1,438 2 1,250 0 188.2 G04nvest LOCAL 75.0 00 75.0 77.0 0.0 77 0 0.6 0.0 78 0 06 0.0 82.0 GUYOIL-CapIalWorks LOCAL 135.0 00 135.0 62.2 0.0 62.2 489 00 48.9 50.2 00 502 NGO Suppoa Programme PL480 USAJD 52.4 00 52.4 51.8 0.0 51.8 50 6 00 50 6 52 2 00 52.2 PwetyProgramme LOCAL 150.0 0.0 150.0 255.2 00 2552 256.1 00 2561 2602 00 260.2 ShorezoneManagement LOCAL 15.2 0.0 15.2 15.2 00 152 15.2 0.0 15.2 152 00 152 West Coasl Berbice (Sea Defense) CDB 167.4 166 7 07 50 5 00 50.5 55.8 00 55 8 155 9 0.0 155 9
SOCLAL SERVICES 7.351.4 465.0 2695.4 7.71.4 4405.8 3.313.6 8.110.7 4.703.5 3407. 8 242 2 4722 3.519. EDUCATION 2.263.7 13015 962.2 2.278.5 1175.6 1.102.9 2.466.7 1.329.5 1137.2 2.541 1 1.5.5 1.187. Adilt Education Associabon LOCAL 0.8 00 0.8 0.8 0.0 08 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 12 GEAP DFID 57 8 57 0 08 65 8 65 0 08 75.8 75.0 0.8 83.2 82 0 12 Buiidng- National Lrbrary LOCAL 42 3 00 42 3 458 00 45 8 50.5 00 50 5 55.2 00 552 BurrwEs School o hA LOCAL 2.9 00 2.9 30 0.0 30 30 0.0 30 3.5 00 35 CarnegieSchoodld HomeEconomics LOCAL 12.5 00 125 155 0.0 155 255 00 25.5 35.2 0.0 352 CnichlowLabourCo(iege LOCALUE-HIPC 2.5 00 25 28 00 2.8 2.9 00 .29 3.5 00 35 Deparlment o Culture LOCAL 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 00 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 00 00 Developmentd TexlBooks LOCAL/E-HIPC 111.2 00 1112 1119 00 111.9 1122 00 1122 1132 00 1132 Technical Vocational Inshtute CDB 203.0 185.0 18.0 271.0 250 0 210 277.0 255.0 2Z.0 283 0 260 0 23 0 Furnilure &Equipment LOCAL 39.5 00 39 5 40.2 0.0 40 2 421 0.0 421 42 5 00 42 5 Fumiture &Equipnent -Education LOCAL 15.5 00 15.5 159 00 15.9 162 00 16.2 16 8 00 16.8 Cynl Potter College d Educabon LOCALUE-HIPC 22.0 00 22.0 150 00 i5O 19.2 00 192 20 0 0.0 20 0 GI.TC LOCAU/E-HIPC 527 00 527 537 00 537 539 00 539 558 00 558 G.T.I LOCAtE-HIPC 57.9 0.0 57 9 60.0 00 60 0 60 8 00 60 8 621 00 62 1
95 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
(GSmilion)
BUDGE'2002 BUDGET2003 BUDSET2DO4 BUDGET2VO8
PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
Linden Technical Insitute LOCALUE4HIPC 59.8 0.0 59.8 589 0.0 589 57.9 0.0 57.9 55.2 00 55 2 MuseumDevelopment LOCAL 2.6 0.0 2.6 2.7 00 2.7 2.7 0.0 2.7 28 00 28 National Archives LOCAL 155 0.0 15.5 15.9 00 15.9 15 9 0.0 15 9. 16.2 00 162 National Schod d Dance LOCAL /5 00 15 Is 00 15 1.6 0.0 1.6 1.7 00 17 NewAmsterdamTechnical Institute LOCAL 45.0 00 450 602 0.0 602 452 0.0 452 46.2 0.0 462 Nursery, irmary&SecondarySchods LOCAL 75.0 00 75.0 78.0 0.0 780 820 00 820 850 0.0 850 Other Equipment LOCAL 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 00 15 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.6 0.0 1.6 BEAMS IDB 640.0 5750 65.0 745.0 650.0 950 9000 780.0 120.0 9300 7800 1500 PresidentsCollege LOCAL 10.1 0.0 101 10.2 0.0 102 10.3 00 103 10.5 0.0 10.5 ResourceDeuelopmentCentre LOCAL 79 0.0 7.9 79 0.0 79 7.9 00 79 8.2 00 82 Guyana Basic Education Training CIDA 28.6 28.5 01 28.8 28.6 0.2 287 285 02 288 28.5 0.3 SchodBuildings(Regions) LOCAL 102.2 0.0 102.2 149.5 00 1495 1456 0.0 145.6 148.5 00 148.5 School Fumdure &Equipment LOCAL 7.9 00 7.9 7.7 0.0 7.7 7.5 00 7.5 7.7 00 77 Schod Fumiture (Regions) LOCAL 86 00 86 8.8 00 88 89 00 89 89 00 8.9 SeoondaryRelormPrqecl IDA 535.5 5130 22.5 2694 247.0 224 286.8 266.0 208 308.8 285.0 23.8 UnrverslycdGuyana- Berbice LOCAL 95.0 0.0 95.0 1227 00 1227 122.9 0.0 122.9 100.2 0.0 1002 Univensly d Guyana -Turkeyen LOCAL 65.0 0.0 65.0 75.0 00 75 0 78.0 0.0 78.0 90.0 0.0 90 0
HEALTH 108Z J 394 5 6926 1352 0 4.827 869 8 1 4227 52 00 Q2 77i .2 491 0 9`192 Buildngs-HeaNh LOCAL/E4HIPC 115.5 0.0 1155 150.0 00 1500 165.0 00 1650 1680 0.0 168.0 NutltionalProgram IOB 208.0 1900 18.0 2750 2500 25.0 308.0 282.0 26.0 274.0 249.0 250 Suildngs-Heath (Regons) LOCALIE-IPC 150.0 00 1500 1880 00 188.0 192.0 0.0 1920 199.0 00 1990 Equipmenl (Regions) LOCALdE-HIPC 150.0 00 150 0 205.0 00 205.0 210 0 0.0 2100 215 0 00 2150 Equipment -Health LOCAL 7.7 00 7.7 76 0.0 76 75 0.0 7.5 7.5 00 75 Public Hospital Georgetown LOCALIE-HIPC 135.0 00 135 0 138.0 00 1380 142.0 00 142.0 145 0 00 145.0 Fumdture &Equipment LOCAL 75 00 75 7.8 00 7.8 82 00 82 83 00 83 MahaicaHospitallorAids LOCAL/E-HIPC 57.0 00 570 95.0 00 95.0 95.0 0.0 950 95.0 00 950
96 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
(GSmlflon)
BUDGET 2002 BUDGET 203 BUD GET 2004 BUDGET 2005 PROJECT TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL TOTAL SPECIFIC LOCAL
Furniture &Equipment -Health LOCAL 365 00 35.5 37 2 0.0 37 2 38.8 00 38.8 40 0 0.0 40.0 Sedor Programme - Heafth LOCAL 84 0.0 84 8.1 0.0 8.1 8.0 00 8.0 82 00 8.2 HIVIADS Special Program CIDA 1980 190.0 80 228.1 220.0 81 248.2 240 0 8.2 250 2 242.0 82 Technical Assistance 108 14.5 14.5 0.0 12.2 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00
SIMAP 9SA0 mu duQ 99216 97h 42.5 J0&2 WS S15I7 1J032 S 90 0 52 S SIMAP-PhasellI IDB 946.0 900.0 46.0 999.5 9500 49.5 1,0262 9750 51.2 1,0325 9800 52.5
HOUSING &COMMUNITY SERVICES 2.449 0 ±l.nf 639 0 724282 1.i0 89i2 2.52L0a 1607.0 914i0 27fi36 170I 0 9336 AmerindanOevelopment LOCAL 650 00 65.0 885 0.0 88.5 90.1 00 90.1 92.5 0.0 925 Low Income Settlement IDB 593.7 560 0 33.7 613.5 575.0 38.5 685.9 645 0 40 9 692.2 650.0 422 Buiidng-CulturalCentre LOCAL 8.4 00 8.4 8.4 0.0 8.4 8.4 00 84 8.5 00 85 tntrasrudure Developmentt&Buildng LOCAL 75.0 0.0 75.0 162.0 0.0 1620 165.0 00 165.0 172.0 00 1720 Land Development (Regons) LOCAL/E-HIPC 195.0 00 195.0 233 0 0.0 233.0 239.0 0.0 239.0 242.0 00 242 0 National Trud LOCAL 3.8 0.0 3.8 36 0.0 36 3.5 00 3.5 36 0.0 36 Housing EUA.OCALIE-H 1,390.0 1,2500 1400 1,1700 958.0 212.0 1,177.0 962.0 2150 1,186.0 9700 216.0 YouthandSpots LOCAL 76.0 00 76.0 1050 0.0 105.0 1070 0.0 1070 110.0 0.0 110.0 Toursm Development LOCAL 42.1 0.0 42.1 44.2 0.0 44.2 45.1 00 451 46.8 00 46.8
SPECIAL INTERVENTION PROJECTS II 3§ 2 nu1i h0 3SL2 614 2liLA 4D4A1 10. 2210 4ZL LEAP EUIE-HIPC 2921 250.0 42.1 309.2 265.0 44.2 315.1 2700 451 324.8 2780 468 Rupu nuni Development Prqect E-HIPC 1425 00 142.5 143 0 00 143.0 150 0 00 150 0 152.0 00 152.0 Regon8PProed E-HIPC 95.0 0.0 950 114.0 0.0 1140 1140 00 114.0 1330 0.0 1330 Re9onl Prqect E-HIPC 76.0 0.0 760 95.0 0.0 95.0 95.0 00 95.0 95.0 00 950 INSTllUTIONAL STRENGTHNING t 10 uL Am1 1104= 111.1 4 luL I02 = lilA 4g2Q2 MinistrycdFinance GEWiE-HIPC 137.0 950 420 140.5 980 42.5 1425 100.0 42.5 143.6 1010 426 Minisry dHousing LOCAL/E-HIPC 54.1 0.0 541 50.2 0.0 50.2 49.5 00 495 502 00 502 Midnry d Health LOCAIJE-HIPC 36.2 00 362 38.4 00 38.4 39.4 0.0 39.4 38.5 0.0 38 5 Minisry d Educabon LOCAL/E-HIPC 50.2 0.0 50.2 48.2 00 48 2 47.2 00 47 2 482 00 48 2 Lands andSurveyCornmission DFIDIE-HIPC 1266 72.4 542 149.3 70.1 792 1294 502 792 128.6 50.2 78.4 Bureau of Standards LOCAL/E-HIPC 72 2 0.0 72 2 72.2 0.0 72 2 73.2 00 73 2 68.5 00 68 5 Bureau odStatisics LOCAL/E-HIPC 75 0 0.0 75 0 75 0 00 75.0 750 0.0 75.0 750 0.0 75 0 Putbic Sector Modernisation Prject IDB 480.0 4400 40 0 495 0 450.0 45.0 559 0 509.0 50 0 562 0 510 0 52 0 National Tourism Board LOCAIJE-HIPC 36 0 00 360 36 0 0.0 36.0 35 6 00 35 6 36 8 00 36 8 SourceStle PlanningSecretariat
97 THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTlON STRATEGY PAPER
EXPENDITUREIPROJECT DtNISIOPEAGENCYCODE CODE RATIONALISATION
EwsnvivtSevces AgSedLam Drv508 13002 FIatructuesupp:C Ag Delpfyri O(RO-l) Reon 13001,17001,19001Tedmic nppall tosmnall rmC AisdFSW Drv512 120045 Aquacutoidwelopmnl Drunap wd htaib(Rvg-s) Regi 13001,13004 tbnvW of ibtdra Rehabd &I Aa Div503 13003 9t Obihftastbucum tMARI Div510 Maihnt c of h hl ElWmn E niugiyRedlfita5v (D81) DN502 13008 intenanceof inastuch" -Ftod PiJdon Pgipumve O 502 13008 Ptection dv6uvwzlo vio oi _uvo Rurl;lSpport Pl i Div508 17011 .hstrductr rdioance andtechica suppatto ond tWil Ruod1port Pmirme L 509 17001 bIrasburocrsm.tum andadirkl uipl tooial t2111 AgWS&H WPRogire Div50t 13005 MleWiMed an aledi trnmto mnaietivoo Exot n SAlos Div500 17019 TOtoclCO pa to MatbfReMs Cmpswid Liveelodi aiutu Agency21:02 231 Tedvuodsuppt b m2 i famn v4.WGuy-a Mkbnvg C _PMeb. Div50 33000 Business upa l servs Naioal Diy Develo Pmlnrngrau DMv508 17009 Tdalce swppt IToDdairpsodov NaondAgricle RPodlc bsttot DSv50 17004 Tecnic sptobwo aumes
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SonDl Dr195 DhS537 15001 Maintenanceof infatrudture Ddng DN520 14010 Ens00ruucfintas8uctv Power Pow Exsolsion Div531;537;539 23W3 np aveasetoelawrlty Paw GSenetion Div522 26003 torve accs to kebIly Trarmportid Covimckatton AfTransp tjed Div517 16001 lvinebacnVtaotfidancy Div520 15006 Regil AialjportPiod Div520 12008 W0dersarce, haItructur fnltadAPk Div520 140109 Wpm Intailaaeostsaicbe ando'aksoh lUlellanaea Roas Dh520 14007 tkbA'_nanad Ihniitoote RoodEboaraice Furd DhO521 14013,14004 lwntei_ dof hstulc/l Roads(RM ) Div520 14001.4,5 tlupio soo avs tD eAmes aid n2hsv Regimn 14001-2 Ito v voia soosto servces aid nvaokat E bo GoutRoad Dbi521 14001 1rp1e Iteroraools sovoces.0 iokets UraonR 1aid Draidage Dh520 14000 M Sntoriibsto r vdwg(ReogIm) Div520 14DD6 bogmvest ava tosardoes aId metret Regic 11001 lv eolilaacaslitD meaidNWMtul Stallg Div520 15003,26001 beptmotcEmtmdkincy WaterTrnst Div520 27001,3,5 lvma to,caEson cdwby Div535:537,539 24002 biprmv ol eco to bvi _andna0el s Wat andSanitalon ElNnoEmnViyRabb4SGC Div501 13008 Povlisi of biloc sal rsilces-war -GuyWa Div501 13008 P ionof basic oal strvavs-waer Water&UP,O-hs) Div539,540 20001 P asod basicsodal sesame -eter SoldWatsb Diaa Dhv522 30001 Piovl d basicsocial searcc as- Enaon EandDDw WalerCa rievay Dlv508 13004 Pmsvs db iesodalseras -ltwe Educen GuyanaSciodcidAgdic DDV00 17005 TdroSarn Guyan,Natorl Sevme Div501 51002 Tadvicaltidng, ea_mewit Youbrkdvv pamrre DN520 45009 Joboeawion, youth anren dt Youli TuWdo Agency54.02 44:05 Yutlr empowmnt Hur2n SvAe -Plo ZCexdpasv) Age 4302 Suppato somlgday pgn
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|fi|}0fS,1 }ii[ 11f}|3|33 111|If I~~ ThE CUYANA POVERY REDUCTION SlrATEGY PAPER
AGENCY NAME AGENCYICOA CODE 11
EDUCATION 1t D t expermiture Minstsy of Educabon and 10 Regional Education Pmgranses and ' "wt MinistryoCufture Yout and Spo rogramme 2-Cufture Teach8ngupptes COA 120 Marderta COA 142-143,150,164,182,183 Salaies COA 101-107 Cp aexpendflwu PEIP Div 542 Ministry of Education Div 543 SSRP Dv 544 Regin 1 Div531-12003,25003 Region 2 Div 532 -12002,25001 Region 3 Dv 533 -12001,25003 Region 4 Div 534 -12001,25001 Regbn 5 Div 535*12003,25001 Regin 6 Dv 536-12D02,25001 Region 7 Div 537 - 12001.25003 Region 8 0iv 538 *12001,25001 Region 9 Div 539 -12001,25004 Region 10 Dv 540 -12002,25001 Culture Div 541
HEALTH 11 Curnt expendte Mitbyof HeaMth,GogeStwn Pubric Hospital and 10Regional O whicl HearthPlogrammes Dnugs.matnrals, and mwppoas OA 120 Maintersnoe COA 142.143,150,164,182,183 Salaries COA 101-107 CRPttatexptd&au Health and Labour Div 515 Healb Dv 516 Region 1 Div 531-12001,25005 Region 2 Dv 532 -12001,2i002 Region 3 Div 533 -12002,25001 Region 4 Div 534 -12003,25003&4 Region 5 Div 535-12004,25003 Region 6 Dv 536-12003,25003 Region 7 Dv 537 -12002,26001 Region 8 Dv 538 -12003, 25004 Region 9 Dv 539 -12002,25005 Region 10 Dlv 540 -12003,25003
HOUSING &WATER Cwmnex,pendture Miistry of Housitg and Water Agency 45 Salaries CapitalexpeAn Ministry ot Housing and Water DIV523 Water Supply Improvement Proie Dv 524 Grgeown Remedial and Sewaerage Poec Div 525
POVERTY ALLEVIATION PROGRAMS 21 Education SIMAP Dv 503.04v546 Hefth BNTF iv 526 -19001 Waw Bupply Sudet Loan Dv 52 -440C3 Inbasure Povet Prografmes v52-44006 Other i-EHIPC
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MldYd ADRLVUS NOU3DI3U ALa3AOd VNVAlD IH1L THE GUYANA POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PAPER
Appendix S. GUYANA -UNIT COSTS AND INDICATIVE AVERAGE ANNUAL BUDGETS OF SELECTED POLICY ACTION: r, Gsyarndi13
iil,l:'lill'£'~Miii IJUSTIFICATION POLICYACTONS PROJECTEDUNITCOST AWNAGSANNUAL souc win
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104 ______MINISTRYOFFINVANCE IN REPLYING QUOTE DATE Main& Urquhart Streers, IHERLEOF ANDNN...... Georgetown, Guyana.
May 23, 2002
Mr. James Wolfensonh President The World Bank 1818 H Street N.W. Washington, D.C
Dear Mr. Wolfsonh:
I am pleased to inform you that the governmenfs revised macroeonomic fiamework and Public Sector Investnent Program (PSIP) in the PRSP addendum described in my letter to you dated April 10, 2002, form the basis for the 2002 public sector budget rcenly enacted by parliament and assented to by President Jagdeo.
As you know, the government has prepared 3 coningency PSIP that is consistent with the revised macroeconomic framework. The contingency PSIP reflects, among other things, a more conservative estimact of the expected resource flows in view of the fact that Guyana may not reach the E-HIPC completion point by June 2002 Under this conservative assumption, the envelope for central government PSIP has been lowered by 13.8 percent while the total envelope of the non-financial public sector PSIP has been lowe.red by 19.6 percent.
In light of the unanticipated lower financing, the Government is seeking ways to mobilize additional resources to implement its PRSP. On the basis of the outcome of our revenue mobilization efforts, the govenunent will determine if changes in indicators and targets are warranted, Should such changes become necessary, the PRSP will be updated in line with our view that it is a living document we wil keep you and your staff informet of the process- Meanwhile, the government will continue its efforts to dissemint both the revised macroeconomic framewofk and the final PRSP to the civil society and its stakeholders. Yours sincerely,
Saisnarine Kowlessar Minister of Finance
Cc: Ms- Terrie O'Leary, Executive Director Ms. Orsalia Kalaniz.poulos, Director, CMU Mr. Norman H4icks, Sector Maniger, PREM Mr. James Droop, Countiy Coordinator PEIOJEI TOVAL 7E?C LOCA 60AL OW= LOCAL gOTAL e1CWI to= TOTAL B9!C7I LO CA
Faftm8ET*A;r4-Hc:z LOCAL 2I u 2e 25 O. 20 2 0. to 22 0e 2.8 LOCAL 0 0. 6.LO . 0O 60US 6.O 6 0.0 6D Iwwwsp:zpmA aDA 16" 150I OO 20.1 2200 6.1 246 240 02 2502 242D 62 t YkdAsb*t 5D620 UO60D 6O2. 0.0 00 0 10 00 0O OD 0.0
c Oa am lo fl DulO s _.. a2 IW 1 OA PA W.P6xPbI tw 035.3 G03 t6o0 C9/i 050 o. oIa MSD ii 1ur3.s O 6M t
==C=m Osg 1:1 5 MA xjpoS SD.l 1 .1 MIA1 IA IA InMi2 1=S to2 MAmq6DmbdwOC tAL MO 0.0 Su OD 125 6us 41 OA 65 57.9 eD 57.9 twim= mg BI&Om41. 0 913.06 5711^srs oDS 6410 4A0 602 422 -cucate tOCUL 95 ao0.0 0.5 10.0 0.0 100 10.5 0 15 Its 0.0 1t.0 I,Dmcmaaf LOCAL 40650 OD 400 410.9 0.0 416. 420.A Os 40.0 422A 0Q 422 taœDmcvato tOCAJD 735.0 OA 50 42.0 42.0 54 DD 5OA 60.6 OA 6S0 NIR=l =w .0 0a OA 63 010 6D (Lo 0.0 00 G .9 0.0 6.9 Imt EU1OCALE. 108 150.0 1 0 76o.0 60J0 2121D 061.0 6D0 2610 01 Om0 261S YvO cS-p= MocAL 2n.S OA 20 24.7 0.0 245 2A0 2S9 .2 0.0 212 W UnKLa40 LOCAL 16Qo oa 150.0 157J 00 tS7 C65A Oa 1i5A4 1731 OD 17,S5 blcuIn tWAL 610 0.0 O 65D eo 6u5 OD tG. 17.0 0.0 17A 0
(aLEW n U Emam Ai anLo U1 MA 0211. m 4PW1 _DMOM LS*P EUA6C 2020 200. 20 1002 2a5.0 44.2 315.6 no.0 45.1. J248 276.0 48.0 mvau2Dmtv=APm" E411PC 60D oi M0 7ZO 0.0 72D G14 0A C0A 6051 0o 603 PGcmaft:;d e44C 6. O 07.6 n2G OD 72. 752 cO 7512 7J 0.0 77n Balftba e-w LOZ 0.0 02 D94.0 0D . eD es0 CA 0.0 0A Cmilt=oUlWFN IL UK EiQ mu am muaa am E001 MA mu ms I001 mlcyaFolf f41C 20.0 OD D.0 140.6 ca0 42. t42S 1000 425 143.6 101D 42s Lini cvdsac.? 1 120. 200.0721 240 9D) 240 9 OD M9A 34D 01 3 Plbft3SElodft!ZKScm m3B D Su 5D.0 SD I666 1500 1 225D = 25.0 m09 270 34A P>t2cstow LOlCALEO 25D) O0 25D A0 0.0 036 380 0.0 60 432 O 4312 dlqdWARC mIDC 30.0 25D SD 6. OA 61 7r2 0.0 7.2 60 0.0A0 Xv=ZVSRmtq DUDE~~~~~~~~~~~~~J3 GUO12" cnOC 2305 N.
11AL SPEC9W LOCAL VO1AL OeC LOCAL TOTAL Ucw: LOCAL MAL GPM= WCAL
LOCALlE4JF 100 00. 10.0 5.0 OD 15D lOb O 100 21A 0.0 21.6 LOCAL la 00 5. 0.0 5.3 5O 0.0 63 33 0.0 3 NZXAMIp LOCAL 2D 0 2.0 2.1 0D Li 22 O 2.2 23 0.0 2.3 !dM2aW dOv LOAL IS OD 1OA D1 O.5 0.0 1.? .1 O.D 1.7 N C hl 1bQd LOCAL 03 0 0 0.0OD DAOA3 03 0. 0.0O 9 9An.P,ftA et=±rvS LOCALE4G 300 230.0 9223 0.0 236D 23.D O 22.0 241D 0.0I Z41 Oda I LOCAL 1 0D 13 J OD iD 1.1 00 1.7 Ii 0.0 lli 6D3 IDa 34.0 W3 0.0 7311 40 0lS 1775 7A00D 07. 077.5 Wnu 97 pcdhdbec-P LOCAL u0 O D 0 0.0 0D BA 0D 0.0 (0 0.3 0.0 e.3 cw0CD=twOcUlm4LOO. 70D OA 7.0 7.0 09 7A 7l 0.0 7.T 81 0.1O 8l CIliA 60.0 GU O 190 20 02 m1 0al 02 2D 29 0.3 LOCAL 9013 Oil 810 10U5 0.0 1045 107.1 0.0 1072 913 0.0 123. w DA 209 OD 20 21.0 O D 29.0 221 03 2±1 232 0.0 232 sct=lf=hn (Fv LoCAL 25..9 25 27V2 0.0 272 2.4 0.0 20 50D 0oo D0. ItmnRyPWokpmc MA 08.7 522 03 217.9 247. 382 220 200.0 26D0 2025 10O0 22.5 1A3i _dn-ft! LOCA 90.0 01) 9503 1tJ 0.0 I.S 1ISA 0.0 101.4 IT" 030 '13 udvoG c - h t Al. 300 OD 300 31.5 0.0 311 331 0.0 33.1 34.7 0 34.7
COMWIDOw1FOW 1 j.fiOa OD iAu 3 fnu 0.0 0.0 CDB LOca 120 OD 13a 120.7 O D 253 123 010.0 3152.1 O.0 1u.1 MD LCCAL 04. 0D 4 17 0.0 153 113 0.0 7TJ "A O.0 t90 OlmCllNoEnlmC". tOCA 0O 0 .0 GOA 0.0 33 23.0 0.0 23.0 2a3 0.0 25.3
HEALTH OmXz CAT 410.0 SS,7,4 AIA4 MUO 419A S3A 4O1.0 4 BLIOM H3"am LOCALUE4. 427 0D 420 tDA 0.0 60A 0D 0.0 6a 723 0.0 2. N P o0 DO 00 275D 0 250. 2J 303 22. NA 2741 249.0 25.0 LOCALE4WF 903I 0.0 I032 905.9 03 0i9 109.5 0.0 9036 1101 0.0 110.0 0V4ig51i$ms) WAL94,G 52.9 OA MD 533 0o. as 652 0.0 552 67A O n7A tXm*"lH$3 LOCAL 4D 0O 4D 42 0.0 42 4.4 0 4.4 4B 0.0 43 EqeP vo-Lufo ULOCAL 15.0 0.0 15.0 00 953 IBS98. 0.0 IS5 11.4 0.0 7TA PAMVO d tLOCALM4UF 60 03 0.S 6iS 0. 6Z5 83 0D 0.9 6s2 0.0 652 Ft & n tEwtowLOCAL 77 0.0 75 7.0 073 O. 0 82 0.0 k7 wboca"bModfu WcmAI Q0 09 O 583 0.0 59 B59 (LO s3S 05 0. 605 PRoJa 10ore VEC LO OTAL NIZ:Fs LO= a TOTAL OPECIF LOC A TOIAL BlFWM LOCAL
WitBIFMDNElBIHMi 1.707.7 _ M04. S9TA MUSs 97 1.1is 21a L I.IODD1 20.2 1.15D 1.A58 Scfti:kl1^sFwd CDD 09.0 46o 230 2BL 21tlD B2.1 3102 a10D D.2 3IDD 250 ZD W oDVcfw Co=3amod . 09 s 31.0 2A 4.72 C 00 m 232 0.0 23 242 O . 24.0 ' EacPCWWU(ac4' LDCA-5K 400. GOD 4CDD0 475.0 0. 4tSD0 4600 0D 4CD 51DD E0 510.D r4 S:z3D:bsP {U N~~~~~~~~~~~~21.5vlD 1.5 7U2 MOW 12 DtU M.11 211. IP382 0eOD 11119 aO4n;s LOCAL 2.2 OD 2U e.4 to 4.4 4.0 OD 49 49 Q04. GUYDU.-oC;wt-, LOCAL 113.1 OD 1YSD0 B22 0.0 022 CZ9 OO 411S liD2 OD 502 woolP:rmoRQDI lfGM Q0 Oh aD 0A4 OLO OA 6!0 ,0 as D] D0 95 LOCAL 4eO OA 4CJ0 41290 0 0 5 412D0 43 02fl O I 4542 494.2 coolCe:st ) ODD501.0 02D11 990 So05 00a as sa Q0D 55D IISD OA 150.
coEa ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.1 ,O4 T 7,24M e .8a TA 4M .2 M 7 i 4 n 19.0 BIKIN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~L51t0 IJODQ 1.13110 Q M 1,.7TU 1,14U i 2M4D 1i79 .I SI.S210.51 JA.6 IM& f.m Edhan t~~~ ~ ~~Q.6 ~~OCALD0 0D 0. 0.0 ale Q0 OA 0 12 OD0 12 PEW 09 Z9.T I77S '1312 0.0 O 0.0 0.0 O9 D OD 00 OD° U 13EA OFW CJOO 51DD OA) 64Q8 640.61 0.0 651A Ul 0 OD 5ffA 662A DO Ob"- -,LMa LOCL &O on0 890 U 0.0 04 u OA 8.8 D3 OD gJ8 emm:Egsdwobt LOCAL 26 09 2A 2.6 0 0 2AB A uLO a a CL OA 2.9L< Co .110 FD11 Iv1 LOCAL 4.0 OD 41A 4.2 QO 42 [A 09 4A 4D 090 4.A r8A ZlfCdw cDI-o 209.0 4D0 2.0 2. .OD0 ao OD 3a 4i 20 4.30 Dwcea-kd ± LOCMA4U 14.0 26. t40 72.4 0.0 2 2() OD eD 9424 0.0 94.0 o 5e*fOdddbM1 COD o0.0 on D01 131.0 l0.0 214' t42.0 12D0 22D 15D0 0sD. 2510. FvwbafEO*o LOCAL 9.6 Oa 29.5 41.5 0.0 41.5 43a5 OD 415 46.7 oh§ 45,7 Cw1FdwCdreurwxLOCK4- 2415.5 OD 155 7iA 10.0 10.2 17.5 09.0 I1 1729 00.0 12
K C C^e LOCALE4 2.0 OA 22 l0O 0.0 Ga l.e 09 40 4.8 O. 4J3 O0J.TC lOBALGE-F 6.0 0D SD 7.6 00 7.5 9.0 0,0 OD 01 IO.B QTD &LOCALW 40D 0D 14L0 412.0 0..04. 420 0D 105.0 142.0 0.0 142.0
do CU 2K2 Dl - G 1004 GU 3wasm C C Tzcr 1sTOTAt 875I0 L L TMAL 2EC14 II tOAL TOTAL SPSCCIPI LOCAL TOIAt S6IC tLOC acIlA cLOCA J25 0.0 3.5 2.1 0.0 37 GA On 1Di 4.1 0.0 4.1 ° OWv IOCAI 15.0 0.0 15D0 15.0 0.0 UD. 16.5 OD9 155 17A 0D lIl aLWP£jCiu LOCAL t.0 0.0 50 5. 0.0 5.J 05 00 11 SO 0.0 sa9 bvcmsawma gm=LCA 0.0n 1 10.0 MO 0.A5.6 17.1 OD 17.8 19ll OD 9. cm SloLmmFcu1 LOCAL 4.00 0,0 491D 614 0.0 514.6 SW2 0D 5402 5472 (L0 6UT.2 a cow L ISO O 110 15.D 0.0 tied 165 0 1OS 1JA O. 01.4 TOWNIomftombfL UIAL 2.2 OD 22 2.3 0.0 2 2A O 2A 2g QO 2S 1dtDmu LOCAL 130 130°0 1MG oD 3ns0 343.3 00 i433 15. On I6D5U
FUWC1AFET'f ml MAA0f 11 SilSL R W AF %q Pflt LOCAL 1.2 OD 12 I Q130.0 1.3 OD I1 IA On 1.4 0dIb PfS LOCAL 00 00 JDD 33.5 0.0 3.5 J3. 00 33.1 34.1 0.0 141 CWMEWiOsW.F6be LCCAL 3.5 0.0 s 3J1 0.0 17 30OD 3L0 4.1 t0 4.J EPti0GaAmPdkD LOCAL U. OD 01 10.0 A0.0 M0 105 OA 10.5 lob Q0. 1I.0 9qG1IAF.dtn~FT1 LOCAL t.2 OA 12 IJ 0.0 1. 1. 0.0D3 IA 00 1.4 qul1nI94>uASbtd2 tOCAt I.7 OA I] I a 0.0 I.0 3.0 09 ID e20OA c Ept i2- LOCAL 35.0 0D 3J5. 3 0.0 3. J3J 09 30.0 405 0.0 40.s5 AgtJI ILFOKSbU= LOCAL 2.0 0.0 26D 29.3 0.0 20.3 27 O3D0. 27.8 0.0 2Q G7WRtaUOMw LCAL 50 0.0 50 5O3 0.0 5.3 Di5 0.60 .5 I'D Qh0 50 8 lIjdAW*fnt an.RF" LO n.o o. nD ml 00 75.7 60.5 0.0 80.5 Su 0.0 845 Lcii8wdraxwrIAtnu LOCAL 5.0 t.o 5.0 5. 0.0 5.3 5.5 GA0 5.5a a0a U LuA1t1mt;E9*IPd 0 LOCAL 20. Di 2000 350 0.0 2050 20.0 OA 20D.0 210D 0.0 21013 Oftf*400.fm tOCL 4.0 O0 4D 4.2 0.0 4.2 4A Oa 4A 45 0.0 46 POftoasAqp LocAI CO.O O 90D0 Du9 QO. 94.5 99. OD 99.2 1042 0.0 1042 1004 AEi*m: -sh tLOCAL 6.0 0A 6D 0 0.0 0.3 5 0a9 GA Os 0.0 60
. _ . . . _ _ _ . . _ _ _ _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I - -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-
9SJCT TOTAL Y CM WCAL TOTAL M%Ug LOCAL TOYAL 1LQCAL TOTAL pT0C7 LOCAL
OSmALPIEJCIEaWIE 4.1010 09. 33J s 1.090 SM&S 11D. , 4Xg MA 1,120A oa.oo ;,
AWNWIRA!D4ffLKAUU4, 4.33 f.l l 2.31A _ l 2J.DtSA 9 4S 2 U iL4 J 1I 1 LOW 210. 44.1 lA2 202174.0 D 2 IDS 104 U 35.4 12 M~~n~hUlpW~~~dffi~~ LOCA a0. GU. A0 05 110 05. 0.0 022 cm. 0.an0. LOCALh 0.0 1. 20.5 0.0 3 21. QO 215 22.0 0.0 22 loSWl 400 0.0 40. 4O 0.0 420o4.1 to, 4LI 48.3 0.0 40.3 A*ftw0 b LOAL 450 0.0 4) 47O3 t0 47. 4D0i 0.0 4. S2.1 oo S2.1 EO2oUbM) LOCAL 2S. 0.0 251 273 00 2721 0.0 7 30.1 0Du .1 EW*4o LOCAL 18.7 OD IOU 19. 0.0 10M 112.9 00 1o2 117, 0.0 117. opeolpacy LOC 45. 0.0 47.3 0.0 47. 400 0.0 400 s21 A 62.1 EtWM- F LOCAL 2:.0 0.0 200 2X6.0 0.0 24. 21112 to 2153 20 0.0 60 RDSWNa10wprm LOL 30.2 0. 30 It.7 L? 333 0.0 2. 35. 00 35.0 G 5aW":=jpA0W LOCAL 5A.0 D0 20.D 21.0 0. 21.0 2LI 0.0 221 2.2 0.0 23.2 EWa 15.0 S.6 10.0 02 0.0 4.2 4J 0.0 4.0 4.9 OD 49 0 Cc5cilS l Q92NT&C 00 0.0 OD 1. 0. 30.0 DD0 3mo 0D 0 0.0 Q7Ft8=AW"- LOL 2.0 ODI2 1 0.0 .1 MA 0.0 04 94. go 9430 Nft&rdmA=lt:mj LOCM 2.0 OD 2 2.1 0.0 21 22 0.0 2.2 2.3 0D 2 4 O eC LOCAL 10.0 OP 100 10 0.0 10.B fl.0O115 0D 11.0SOD IIt, I LOCAL 40e 04 4D 42 0.0 4.2 4 4.4 40 00 4.5 C2c>&S>4nt LOCAL tl .D t11 12.1 O IZ1 27 0.0 12.7 12.2 OA 11. LOrCAl 0.7 O0, 01 0,7? .0 0W 00t 0.0 DJ.0 0D0 40D MOW, adFr7Cr LOCAL 0.3 0D Di 0.3 0.0 01 0.3 0.0 0.3 0i 00 0U WmnnhomdEqgvno LOtAL .0 0.0 O 7.1 0.0 t.l 7.6 0.0 ?g 7?D 0g i c7MWO2f=XLOCAL. 05 0.0 OA0.5 0.0 0.5 4.6 0B 0OA 0.5 D 03 ctftmaem123 LOCAL 10.0 MD 1on l. ODI ID IOA11.0 11.0 tin .0 11E tda0m o,il6AsdA= LOCAL 250A OA 2sDD 262.0 OD 202.0 270.1 0.0 22B.1 2000 0D 2911S Am8w&vCaM6u LOCL 2.0 0D 20 2.1 Os 2.1 2t2 MD 22 2 0. 2. 0W BUW2z1Ca~) *LOCAL 0o OA 00 000 0.0D0 O0D U OD 0.0 o
. _ _ .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-.
P0OJICT TOTAL M iC t.CAL TOTAL SCIRC LOCAL TOTAL S EICC LOCAL TOTAL C2cC LOCAL ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--
l0.±2t5dAh3t LOCALO40 9.0 ODD 108D 21B 0.0 21.0 13.4 0.0 6O4 12.3 0 1L3 Lc ruuwi LOML 2.5 es I5 u 0. 2.2 O. 2.0 2.9 0.0 2.9 Lcd 6 c=nut LCCALIJ0. 94 oA D4. 0s. 0.0 , 0.8 w0e 0.0 1m. 805.0 0. 105.5.
O=# wt: N;? . 4184 4n N6 1 D 901am- n 10. out1 GM C2i ACW2t= WlSCL*8 0D9 0.0 no0 C00D OA 40 482. on 412D 415.0 0.0 416.0 WOA 20 0.0 A0. 21D O61 211 22.1 O 22.2 232 00 22 b IIc2A7Fchy i IDULOCAL 05 0 G8. 093 0.0 88.3 88. 00uOA 53 6sJ OD 88.3
LOCAL MD 0.0 GO.0 6D3 00 03 OA 410 40.2 0D 4D.2 rAMdg=dPm EU 2.o0 29n. 1.0 22 0. 5.2 688Y 00 903a 5 OD Sr. re:0 Vz3b LOCAL43.10Q 2a7.t 0 231. 22. 0o 228 210 OD 2108 2221 00 mD rbh LOAL 50.0 .O 509 1A 0.0 I2.5 65.8 0D 511 675 OD 87 5op Pub" LOCAL 7.0 0D 79 7.4 0.0 7.0 73 0.0 7.7 0.1 OD Ql vdw rGOOOOp LOSAL 30.0 0.0 30S 31.5 0.0 31. 33.1 0.0 3QO 37 0.0 343
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(Annual peatagp changt) Nominal GDP? o MEkeE P=es 5.1 0.7 6.2 s9 5.4 s.1 62 Nomina GDP at Factor Cod 2A 3.2 5.2 5.8 S5 5.2 6.4 Real GOP at Fkeor Cost (0.7) 0.s l.s 2.7 3.0 3A 4.2 AgId4caae (9.1) 3.4 3.3 32 3.1 4.1 6.7 Mining and Quanyi4g 5.9 (3.2) (13A) 2.) (3.3) (15) 0.0 Manufacturing (11.7) 0.2 3.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 Consnaion 6.6 2.1 10.0 60 6.0 s.0 4.0 Seices 6.7 (0.6) 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.4 Pricet Consun Pnrice(avg) 6.1 2.7 4.3 4.5 3.5 2.8 2.5 Cotsumcr Prices (end-pd) 5.3 15 4.d 4.0 3D 2.5 2.5 GDP Dcfltaor(mark-e1pckes) 5.9 (0.1) 4.4 3.1 2A 1.7 1.3 GDPDeflator(hfnorcsc) 3.6 2A 3.4 3.0 214 IA 1.2 Term of nrde (7.9) 7.4 (1.3) 13 3.1 1.0 0.5 Expon unit nluc (1-0) 2.5 0.8 1.2 3.7 1.S 1.3 Import unit valuc 7.5 (4.6) 0. (0.1) (0.0) 0.3 0.1 Parmer cauntzy CPZ(cndpciod) 2.6 1.1 15 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 (Guyna dollars per U.S. dollar) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Exchanp rate (period avage) 11126 17.6 194.2 203.2 206.0 207.2 207.8 Exhapnge rae (end.of.period) 134.3 1195 200.9 204.9 206.7 207A 208.0 Deprciion (+. period rag) 2.7 2.6 2.4 3.2 3.0 2B1 2.7 Dcprciatiot (+, cod.of-peiod) 2.3 2.2 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 memo NominulGDPimarkeltpriceUSS 712.1 6975 715.7 724.6 753.2 727.1 103.11 Populadon Growth 0 (02) 0.a 1.7 L0 2.3 3.2 Rel Ouwt per pita (OSS) 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 73 7.4 7.1 Real Growth in Ourpuper CapIt (0) 0.8 1.7 2.0 23 3.2 sourcrt ovttuen of Goyva in co I~~~~~~,2"q._vi . a""a gn3it:a' ' ' I0g'Ie 11 1 i ;l i@ ztt@)R; I^ ii R3ecgzafla V;#e-hgJ2 ; -In JIA~~~~~ u~~~~~~1 g Ii 1~IIf Ii ~ I |~| | |Afig,|131 11||W1HAu. |IE|I ]| .. UC C 04/15/2002 15:03 FAX 692 22 58329 Dr CODY FII1PONG 204 Appendi 2A. Gnyanc: OpmiJoms of the NoaLandI Public Sector cut pnre ootGDP umI o _a4muLgat4 2000 2t01 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Rsvcnne 333 33.1 3L2 35. 3 3.7 31.0 Ccntrul Govemment 313 31.S 31.4 33.0 33.9 33.9 33.8 Tax rvenue 29A 2W3 295 30.6 31.0 30.9 30.9 f/w Inonrrcatcdrernzvuc 11.9 11.2 11.7 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.6 lCOe ux 123 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.4 1Z6 12.6 Mom-Tax Rcvewes 2.4 2.6 1.9 24 3.0 3.0 2.9 Public _eiprises 2.0 1,6 0.3 2.9 2.7 2.6 32 Totalnevaue. 35.7 35.1 333. 34.6 Xs 34.3 33.9 CurmaExpenditure 329 31.8 35.S 31.7 31J 31.S 30.7 Net bliEntTnrsfcms (.L 1.7 L5 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 Expcndlwru 47.7 43 47. LU S4.4 5 480 Currenl tpe3diwe 33.9 343 34M0 34.8 3338 34.4 33.4 Nonimgae c = eapeud iwg 24.7 254 25.7 27.9 27.0 27.3 27.1 o gPIS caaouhmes oal 11.0 11.3 11.4 12.0 11.4 11.3 11.0 Other gods and serVmceS 6.3 6c. 7.1 7.2 73 7.8 3.1 TranSfes 37A 7.3 7.2 75 7.3 7.2 6.9 rnte 9.2 39 UJ 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.3 Exerl (PMch*) 5.3 S5. 4.7 3.2 3.1 3.3 23 Domnsicll 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3. 3.6 3.5 Capittl expdulue and NctLending 3s3 14.0 13A 15 9 20. 161 143 C.enlrit Oovenent 12W 12.6 12.5 14.7 199 15.3 13.4 Staw CporpSonsandNMS 1.6 1.A 1 1.2 0.7 0.3 1.1 Current balsEat 4.1 -12 -13R 1.2 2.9 2.4 3.6 Overall balance befere granu -13.9 -15.2 .U56 .15.7 -17.8 -13.7 -I1D (rins 7.7- .3 2.2 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.3 HIPC rlief 4.3 6.1 5I 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.1 OCdw 3.4 2.2 2.4 2.7 29 3.1 3.2 ovell balne tile? grants - 63 .9 -1.4 -9.4 -12 .. -5.7 TOUI fnancing 6.2 69 7.4 9.4 122 1.3 5.7 Nect Fore;p Finanng 5.6 6.9 52 8.7 82 8.0 46 Net Domeszc Fimcing 0.6 0.0 2.2 0.7 4.0 Di 1.1 tHominal GDP at Margetpr cC (GSa) 130.012.0 I30N59,9 139,002A 147,214.9 1S5,172. 163.114.0 173301.S Sur: Oov9mwmw Guyan 04/15/2002 15:03 FAX 592 22 58329 Dr COBY PI1k ONG I03 Appendis Tabe 1: Guyana: sdctM Emaok and Finandal idleaonrs 20 2001 2002 O 1004 200S 2006 Prud.d" ad pim Ral GDP toArCoJU) -0.7 0QS IJ 2.7 3.0 3.4 4.2 Nomiinl GDP(ma*r eeprt) 5.1 0.7 62 5.9 5. 5.1 62 GOPPdenatoq(Facot) 3.6 2A 3.4 3.0 24 3.8 [2 Corauw crp a(ava ) 6.1 2.7 4.3 4. 3.5 e 2.5 Cnu pmapriode(cod orpulid) SJ 1S 4.4 4.0 3.0 2.5 25 Ral GDP pert piti 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.7 Exrut oTGOOd en Savke -2]1 -61 -1.6 -0.1 -.i -1.0 linponaof Godstat Services -.2 -3.6 1.5 3.1 -24.t Nsduna accouats Invesment 22.6 21 22.0 25.0 33.5 27.5 26.2 Pnivieset 8.8 79 8.'O 9.1 10.9 11.4 II.7 Publicror 133 1t0 14.0 1159 20.6 16.1 I4.5 National saving 7.3 Li 1Ii 4.7 S.0 83 9.7 Priane ctoi 6.f d3 3.5 3.5 5.2 5.9 6.1 Pubric Ms -12 -1.7 1i 2.9 2.4 3.6 Exrigma canunvat otbol1ae -15.3 -48. 20.2 S 203 -23.4 -19.2 -16.5 PubUic setor Revenue 53.0 33.1 32.2 35.9 36.6 36.7 37.0 Expundime 47.7 413 47.8 50.6 54.4 S0. 48.0 Current 33.9 343 34.0 343 33.5 34.4 33.4 Capinal 13. 14.0 13.8 15.9 20.6 16.1 14.5 Saving 0.5 4.0 4.0 OS IA 1.0 2.2 OiWWJ bale (bsoru p%nU) -13.9 -25.2 -154 -14.7 -17.8 -13.7 .11.0 Gran (incloding HIPC eiic) 7.7 63 L2 5.3 S.5 S.4 5.3 Ovemnall ta(eferpam) -.2 -69 -74 -9.4 .12.2 43 -5.7 ,4ttextemal fnawing 5.6 6.9 5.2 8 82 a.0 *.6 Net domutic finncing 0.6 0.0 2.Z 0.7 4.0 0.3 1.1 (Pacmtogp changc live to broad money at thebegninIg oft ywu Money and credit (ead o(puc DOMCietiCaudit ofthebackn system 4.9 3.6 6.2 2.2 2.8 2. -1.4 Public sectoer(n) 1:1 2.9 1.9 -2.8 -1.7 .2.5 -3.0 Privac or 3. 0.7 4.3 4.9 4.5 4.5 1.6 Bmtod rdncy 1009 t.9 5.8 6.7 6.0 5.9 2.5 3.uaml setor Ovmull baace otpawnmus (%GDP) 8.7 0.6 0.2 -0.3 j5 .0.5 -1.9 Impnt Co-cc (Monts) 4,5 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.8 .3.8 . Memorndum ltcmss: Nominal GDP(CSbillion) 130012 13086O 139002 147218 155173 163114 173307 So.ce: Cove,n'rG@yar' 04/15/2002 15:03 FAX 692 22 58329 Dr COBY ftfib2OG 002 * Imnerest on domestic intrest at GS3.9 biUion or 2.8 percent of GDP is siphoning much needed resources to implement poverty reducing programs. Towards this end, beginning 2002, domestic debt, which now stands at G S32 billion or 23A pcrccnt of GDP, will be reduced significanily by end 200S taking into consideration broad monetary policy targets. * In addition, The medium temn macroeconomic framework incorportes estimaics for the structural reforms envisaged in the public service bauxite sector and in the sale of the restructuring of the government-owned bank GNCB. * The volume of expots is projected to be flat during 2002-2006 and thereafter grow at an annual rate of about 4 percent in the outer years reflecting strong growth in the primary sectors of sugar, rice, gold, timber, and nontaditional exports. * Import growth isprojected tD gow at 2.7 percent between 2002 and 2006 attributable to the large public sector investment including the restructuring and modernization of GUYSUCO. After the completion of many of these key projects, thc growth in imports is projected to decline. * Net private ransfers are projected to remain constant in real terms, while services are projected to bciiefit from lower interest payments and flom expansion in travel and communcations services arising from eco-tourism activities. I have attached, heewith, the detailed macroeconomic tabtes These tables with the cover letter represent the addendum to the PRSP. This less favorable outlook was occasioned by (i) the deleterious effects of the September 11 2001 tenorist attacks on the United States; (ii) lower than envisaged aternal financing, and (iii) lower and uncertain timing of enhanced debt relief. While the policies and programs in the PRSP remain unaltered, it is clear that unless more resources, both external and domestic, are mobilized, the Government will not be able to meet its objectives and goals set out in the PRSP. In this regard, the Govemnment, with the support of the donor conmmunity, will organize a donor conference, and with technical assistance from the IMF expeditiously develop an action plan on tax reforms with a view to mobilizing additional resources to implement the PRSP. Yors sincereby, 7 raine Kowliessar Minister of Finance Cc: Ms. Temrie O'Leary, Executive Director Ms. Orsalia Kalantzopoulos, Director, CMU Mr. Norman Hicks, Sector ManWer, PREM M. James Droop, Coamtar Coordinator 04/15/2002 15:03 FAX 592 22 58329 Dr CODY FIRMPONG O .? id t-s i%u ot ort EMIN lISTRY OF FINANCE .I it W.. o)r Main & Urquhort Sreees, 4t '" ~\') '~* Georgetown. Guyana. April 10, 2002 Mr. James Wolsonh _ _ _ Presider,t GW C The World Bank 1818 H Strece, N.W, iz Washington, D.C Dear Mr. Wolfensonh: You may mecall that on Fcbnrsy 22,2002 the Govemment of Guyans submitted its Poverty Reduction Strtegy Paper for consideraion by the Board of the World Batk At the time of submission, the Government had indicated that due to the changed extemal environment. it would reVise is PRSP macroeconomic famework for the medium-term (2002.05) once its negotiations with the 1MF on the three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Svrategy was completed (PRGF). I am pleased to infonm you that the Government mnd the 1MF have successflily completed negotiations of a medium-term term macroeconomic program, which would be supported by a new three-year arrangement under the PRGE. We continue to believe that our mcdium-term macroeconomic -growth objectives discussed during the public consultations are attainable but agree to present the conservwive estimatis worked out with te DMF staff. Consistent with thc revised framewor&c • Average real CDP growth rate is projected at about 2.7 percent a year in 2002-2005 and about S percent a year theredfter. Growth in the production of traditional crops is expected to pick-up with the recovery of the agricultral sector due to increased production of supr and rice. Growth in the nontraditional sectors-especially light manufactufing-and expansion in gold and timber production would provide the impetus for continued high growth in the outer years. • Tnvesunent by the public sector is projected to be particularly robust during 2002-2005 becase of the resucuring of the sugar sector and the sharp increau in the public invesment program. Private sector is prpjccted to increase sharply in the outer years, principally in connection with new mining and timber projects to replace existing ones and development of new growtb areas such as ICT. As thews projects are very capiul intensive, especially in the initial years, the improvement in the overall GDP growth rate is expected to lag somewhat T*he wags bill will be limited to the expected rare of inflation and productivity increases * il1aion is projected Io average about 3.0 percent per year during 2002-2005 to reflect a moderate easing of monetary policy in support of the growth objectives. Thereafter, intlation is projected to grow at 5.0 percent on avragc over 2006-2010. IBRD 25723 40'k Mo,an.Aono GUYANA A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C SI 01 NEWREI ATLSEEANTI MA+4AIC -REGION 4 R IONERE C 9REGION 7 hCC MEEDENESDhS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~USHLOT \D/IA r ' ji o t e p of 4 2 K~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~eomintonsan any#b> K .. m~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ n hsmad o 2 { og ~~REGION 8 l R :1 o a jKURUPUde o t l _e n / nxV / ) SU RI NA M E 21 ASA ) g ~~~~~~denominationsand any PRIMARYROADS \/ / Ii on this mo,o do not SECONDAIRY ROADS j / \1 The World Bank Glroup, TRACKS > ) ( MI.<; /) \t \\ status of any territory, or ony endorsement RAILROADS I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~reeeteeof such TO\NNSO LEIHM 9 INTERNATIONAL AIRFPORT {> 02\ REGION BOUNDARIES \ i _ INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES SADCE ) \i WICHAs^AI REGION 9 / 9 MILES RD A 0 10 20 30 40 50 L ASHALTO ) I 0 20 40 60 B0 / \ KILOMETERS60 fLUDA /7 L Area ofMap \/2 WT ~~BRAZI B R A Z I L MARCH 1994 IMAGING Report No.: 24172 Type: PRSP