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BOFIT Weekly Review Yearbook 2019 BOFIT BOFIT Weekly Review Yearbook 2019 Bank of Finland BOFIT – Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Weekly Review Editor-in-Chief Jouko Rautava Bank of Finland BOFIT – Institute for Economies in Transition PO Box 160 FI-00101 Helsinki Phone: +358 9 183 2268 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.bofit.fi The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2019 4 Jan 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/01 Continued low growth forecast for Russian economy this year State banks dominate Russian banking sector Moscow stock exchange’s dollar-denominated RTS index declined 8 % last year 11 Jan 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/02 Rosstat released revised figures for GDP and domestic demand in 2016 and 2017 United States moves ahead on dismantling sanctions on aluminium giant Rusal In Russian corporate debt increases have occurred in interfirm trade credits 18 Jan 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/03 Russian oil fund shrank in 2018, but central bank foreign currency reserves grew Consumer price inflation accelerated in Russia 25 Jan 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/04 Russian export earnings up significantly in 2018 Russian foreign debt declined last year Topics at Moscow Gaidar Forum feature future economic growth and national projects 1 Feb 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/05 United States Treasury lifts sanctions on Russian aluminium giant Rusal Russian industrial output grew at a moderate pace last year Central Bank of Russia resumes forex-buying mandated by fiscal rule 8 Feb 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/06 Russian economy’s growth rate accelerated in 2018 Higher oil prices boost surplus of Russian federal budget Russian real disposable income still well below 2014 level 15 Feb 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/07 Russian inflation accelerates slightly in January Growth in Russian household borrowing accelerated in 2018 Russia’s goods trade surplus last year was larger than before 22 Feb 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/08 Russian government releases new guidelines for national projects Russia last year produced and exported more gas and oil than before Russian retail sales up overall, but growth has slowed in recent months 1 Mar 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/09 Credit rating agency Moody’s upgrades Russian sovereign debt Russian population declines slightly in 2018 as immigration flows drop considerably Corruption dies hard in Russia 8 Mar 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/10 Russian government sector finances improved further last year Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline construction continues; EU reaches preliminary agreement on gas directive changes 15 Mar 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/11 Recovery in Russian fixed investment continued in 2018 Finnish exports to Russia slackened last year BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2019 22 Mar 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/12 BOFIT forecast sees lower growth of Russian economy ahead Growth in Russian industrial output revived in February Rapid growth in use of payment cards in Russia 29 Mar 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/13 Large disparities in Russian regional economic development President of Kazakhstan resigns Russia actively engages in trade with its neighbours 5 Apr 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/14 New data on last year’s improved performance of Russian economy Russia’s national ecology project addresses a range of environmental issues New bridges across Amur River are set to open soon 12 Apr 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/15 Russian export earnings rather flat; recovery in imports continues to stall Russian growth in the past couple of years driven largely by extractive sector, trade and public administration Russia’s car manufacturing industry continues to recover 18 Apr 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/16 Direct investment outflows from Russia remain significantly larger than FDI inflows Revenue boom of Russian federal budget begins to normalise Russian spending on private insurance increases 26 Apr 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/17 Steady rise in Russian industrial output Russia’s foreign debt up slightly in the first quarter Recent restrictions on Russian trade add to challenges facing Ukraine’s new leadership 3 May 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/18 Russian budget surplus expected to shrink in the next few years Little progress in reducing poverty, even as Russian living conditions generally improve Russian president tours East Asia 10 May 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/19 Russian defence spending large, even after declines Russian services trade grew last year Progress in two natural gas transhipment terminals in Russia’s Arctic and Pacific coasts 17 May 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/20 Sluggish growth in Russian foreign trade Dollar remains the dominant billing currency in Russian foreign trade Difficult to form a full picture of Russia’s sizeable public sector procurements 24 May 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/21 Russian first-quarter economic growth well below expectations Tainted oil fouls Druzhba oil pipeline Russia’s hydrocarbon-centric energy security doctrine stresses import substitution BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2019 31 May 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/22 Russian industrial output growth accelerated in April Changes in the country structure of Russian inward and outward foreign direct investment Russian expenditure on travel services abroad grew slightly last year 7 Jun 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/23 Russian share prices up this year; substantial growth in bond markets Fewer sectors in Russia targeted for direct investment from abroad Intra-elite competition increasingly reflected in institutional behaviour in Russia and the economy more broadly 14 Jun 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/24 Statistical reforms provide improved picture of Russian household spending Chinese and Russian presidents extol good economic relations at St. Petersburg economic forum Kazakhstan’s acting president Tokayev wins presidential election 20 Jun 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/25 Central Bank of Russia lowers key rate Rapid expansion of Russian consumer borrowing raises concerns Russia’s labour force shrinks along with unemployment 28 Jun 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/26 Russian first-quarter growth supported by extractive sector and certain service-sector branches Russia tries to strengthen import substitution policy Russia suspends flights to Georgia after July 8 5 Jul 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/27 Russia’s population declines, greys and increasingly packs into cities OPEC+ keeps production ceilings in place 12 Jul 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/28 Russian economic growth driven almost exclusively by private consumption Russian foreign trade contracts slightly Increase in outflows of private capital from Russia 19 Jul 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/29 Russian federal budget produces strong first half surplus Druzhba pipeline again operating at full capacity since July Russia’s contribution to global oil, gas and coal production held steady last year 26 Jul 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/30 International Monetary Fund lowers growth forecast for Russia Russia posts tepid first-half growth Significant economic differences across Russia’s cities with populations of more than one million 2 Aug 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/31 CBR again lowers key rate and forecasts moderate inflation Russia tries to promote the ruble by easing the repatriation requirement for export earnings Russia has a large, but relatively poor, middle class 9 Aug 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/32 Russia moves its large excess oil tax revenues from 2018 into the reserve fund Russia continues to accumulate foreign currency reserves Recent studies examine transport projects in Central Asia BOFIT Weekly Review – Russia 2019 16 Aug 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/33 US imposes new sanctions on Russia Kremlin imposes strict economic targets on regional leaders IMF Article IV consultation reiterates calls for Russia to maintain economic stability and move on reforms 23 Aug 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/34 Russia’s economic growth remained slow Russia’s goods trade stays rather flat Moderate rise in Russian government spending 30 Aug 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/35 Implementation of Russia’s national projects plods ahead UNCTAD’s estimate of ultimate sources of foreign direct investment emphasises Western investment in China and Russia 6 Sep 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/36 Russian fixed investment developments vary across sectors Russia streamlines visa rules Finnish-Russian trade remains sluggish 13 Sep 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/37 Russia’s central bank lowers key rate and revises forecasts downwards Ruble rate and oil prices weaker after strong performance early in the year Russian and Indian leaders meet to discuss economic relations 20 Sep 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/38 Lower growth in Russian construction activity Russian competition bureau has plenty on its plate Russia and Belarus discuss deeper economic integration 27 Sep 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/39 Russia announces ratification of the Paris climate accord Russia discusses how to invest government reserve fund assets Chinese premier talks up trade during his Russia visit 4 Oct 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/40 BOFIT’s latest forecast sees Russian economic growth falling to 1 % this year Stimulus included in Russia’s 2020−2022 government sector budget framework 11 Oct 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/41 Russia’s foreign currency reserves swell to highest level in years Russia and Turkey want to increase bilateral use of their currencies Russia ratifies Caspian Sea accord Monitoring of partially completed fixed investments in Russia is difficult 18 Oct 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/42 IMF lowers growth forecast for global economy Russian imports on the rise; modest capital flows Report finds that one in three Russian workers involved in informal employment 25 Oct 2019 BOFIT Weekly 2019/43
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