HEADING TO GO HERE THE 2019 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN ELECTION STUDY Sarah Cameron & Ian McAllister School of Politics & International Relations ANU College of Arts & Social Sciences australianelectionstudy.org The 2019 Australian Federal Election Results from the Australian Election Study Sarah Cameron Ian McAllister December, 2019 Sarah Cameron School of Social and Political Sciences The University of Sydney E
[email protected] Ian McAllister School of Politics and International Relations The Australian National University E
[email protected] Cover image: Nic Ellis / AAP iii iv The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 Introduction 5 Policy Issues 7 Most important election issues 7 Preferred party policies 8 Tax policies 8 Climate change 9 Notes 10 Leaders 11 Does leadership matter? 11 Leader popularity 11 Leader characteristics 12 Leadership change from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison 12 Notes 13 Political Trust 15 Satisfaction with democracy 15 Trust in government 15 Who the government is run for 16 Notes 16 A Divided Electorate? 17 Gender gap 17 Generational divide 18 Battlers 19 Asset ownership 20 State differences 21 Notes 22 Explaining the Election Result 23 Understanding voters’ choices 23 Swing voters 23 Support for minor parties 24 Summary 24 Notes 25 Endnotes 26 Acknowledgements 27 References 28 Appendix: Methodology 29 1 2 The 2019 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents findings from the 2019 Australian Election Study (AES). The AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,179 voters after the 2019 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election.