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A Systems Thinking and Systems Theory Approach to Managing Cyber Security Risks

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A Systems Thinking and Systems Theory Approach to Managing Cyber Security Risks Cyber Safety: A Systems Thinking and Systems Theory Approach to Managing Cyber Security Risks Hamid Salim Working Paper CISL# 2014-07 May 2014 Composite Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) Sloan School of Management, Room E62-422 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02142 Cyber Safety: A Systems Thinking and Systems Theory Approach to Managing Cyber Security Risks By Hamid M. Salim Submitted to the MIT Sloan School of Management, the School of Engineering, and the Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of Master of Science in Engineering and Management and Master of Science in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in conjunction with the System Design and Management Program at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2014 © 2014 Hamid M. Salim. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author......................................................................................................................................... System Design & Management Program May 16, 2014 Certified by...................................................................................................................................................... Stuart Madnick John Norris Maguire Professor of Information Technologies, MIT Sloan School of Management & Professor of Engineering Systems, MIT School of Engineering Thesis Supervisor Certified by...................................................................................................................................................... Qi D. Van Eikema Hommes Research Scientist, Engineering Systems Division, MIT School of Engineering Thesis Supervisor Accepted by...................................................................................................................................................... Professor Leslie A. Kolodziejski Chair of the Committee on Graduate Students Accepted by...................................................................................................................................................... Patrick Hale Director System Design & Management Program THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 2 Cyber Safety: A Systems Thinking and Systems Theory Approach to Managing Cyber Security Risks By Hamid M. Salim Submitted to the MIT Sloan School of Management, the School of Engineering, and the Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science on May 16, 2014 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of Master of Science in Engineering and Management and Master of Science in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in conjunction with the System Design and Management Program Abstract “…we must think anew, and act anew…” - President Abraham Lincoln, December 1, 1862 If we are to manage cyber security risks more effectively in today’s complex and dynamic Web 2.0 environment, then a new way of thinking is needed to complement traditional approaches. According to Symantec’s 2014 Internet Security Threat Report, in 2012 more than ten million identities that included real names, dates of birth, and social security were exposed by a single breach. In 2013 there were eight breaches that each exposed over ten million identities. These breaches were recorded despite the fact that significant resources are expended, on managing cyber security risks each year by businesses and governments. The objective of this thesis was twofold. The first objective was to understand why traditional approaches for managing cyber security risks were not yielding desired results. Second, propose a new method for managing cyber security risks more effectively. The thesis investigated widely used approaches and standards, and puts forward a method based on the premise that traditional technology centric approaches have become ineffective on their own. This lack of efficacy can be attributed primarily to the fact that, Web 2.0 is a dynamic and a complex socio-technical system that is continuously evolving. This thesis proposes a new method for managing cyber security risks based on a model for accident or incident analysis, used in Systems Safety field. The model is called System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). It is rooted in Systems Thinking and Systems Theory. Based on a case study specifically written for this thesis, the largest cyber-attack reported in 2007 on a major US based retailer, is analyzed using the STAMP model. The STAMP based analysis revealed insights both at systemic and detailed level, which otherwise would not be available, if traditional approaches were used for analysis. Further, STAMP generated specific recommendations for managing cyber security risks more effectively. Thesis Advisor: Stuart Madnick Title: John Norris Maguire Professor of Information Technology, MIT Sloan School of Management & Professor of Engineering Systems, MIT School of Engineering Thesis Advisor: Qi D. Van Eikema Hommes Title: Research Scientist, Engineering Systems Division, MIT School of Engineering 3 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 4 Acknowledgments I was fortunate to have Professor. Stuart Madnick and Qi Hommes as my advisors, and I am profoundly grateful for their support and guidance during the process of writing my thesis. Professor Madnick believed in me and my research topic, and provided support when there was no wind to fill sails or when seas were rough. Because of his continued support and patience the ship stayed afloat. His cyber security expertise and feedback provided me with tremendous learning opportunities that helped shape my thesis and create a quality product. Qi brought new life to my thesis, and her expertise helped set sail on the correct course with reference to STAMP/CAST analysis that generated the much needed momentum. Her questions and feedback provided me with unique opportunities to reflect, think with more depth, learn, and continuously improve the quality of my work, specifically with reference to STAMP/CAST model application to cyber security. Thank you Professor. Madnick and Qi in helping me create a robust and quality product. I appreciate your time, help, and advice. Patrick Hale as always was available to serve as a safe harbor. As a mentor, Pat provided me with advice and support to work through challenges and set sail again towards completing my thesis. Thank you, Pat for acting as an anchor during rough seas and providing guidance. Many thanks to Jeff Shao (former SDM Finance Director), for always being approachable and eager to help me with financial matters. Thanks to System Design and Management (SDM) program staff for their administrative support. Inspiration provided by my parents has enabled me to achieve my goals throughout life. My father, from his extremely humble beginnings taught me the value of education and hard work. My mother, despite her very limited formal education taught me to read, write, and tie a necktie. Without my parents support and advice, I would not be where I am today, thank you Daddy and Ami for your guidance, advice, inspiration, values, and a loving family. My siblings and their families are dispersed across the globe, but were never too far to provide their support and encouragement. My profound gratitude to my sisters Fauzia and Sofia, my brother Sajid, my nieces Benish, Mahwish, Sidra, Zobia, and nephew Daanyal. “To reach a port we must sail, sometimes with the wind, and sometimes against it. But we must not drift or lie at anchor.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr. 5 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 6 Dedicated To my Dear Father – a proud Naval Officer, an Engineer, and an Entrepreneur Captain. M. Salim Anwar T.I. (M), P.N. Retired. And to my Dear Mother – the foundation and the guiding light of our family Najma Salim 7 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 8 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 15 1.1 Cybercrime Trend ............................................................................................................... 15 1.2 Cost of Cybercrime ............................................................................................................. 16 1.3 Asymmetries ....................................................................................................................... 17 1.4 Efficacy of Traditional Methods ......................................................................................... 18 1.5 Limitations of Traditional Methods .................................................................................... 22 1.6 Cyber Security Risk Categories .......................................................................................... 26 1.7 Holistic Approach to Cyber Security .................................................................................. 26 1.8 Thesis Structure .................................................................................................................. 31 2 Literature Review....................................................................................................................... 33 2.1 Chain-of-Events Model ....................................................................................................... 33 2.2 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) .................................................................................................
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