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also had benefitted from being able to “minimize differences” By Eric Francis between themselves and Republicans, especially in rural areas, says Lublin. hen the new Arkansas speaker of the House Arkansas’s shift to a GOP majority was merely an extension banged the gavel to open the 89th General of a broader Southern trend, where the delegations to Congress Assembly, history was made. went Republican first, followed by state legislatures, says Merle It just wasn’t the history everyone expected Black, professor of politics and government at Emory University a year earlier. Instead of welcoming the first in Atlanta. African-American speaker in the state’s his- “This is kind of a trickle-down thing,” says Black. “The Wtory, members were greeting the first Republican speaker since realignment started with presidential politics back in the ’50s, Reconstruction. and it takes a long time to come down to the levels of state leg- In March 2012, Representative Darrin Williams (D) was chosen islatures. Local politics is where your inherited party loyalty speaker-elect, setting Arkansas means more than anything else. up to have its first African-Amer- “When … ‘Democrat’ is ican speaker. That is, until voters something you have to explain elected enough Republicans for to people, that’s when the the party to claim the House and Democrats are really in trouble. Senate. In the House, Republican It’s just totally the reverse of Davy Carter won the leadership what it used to be with respect position after a last-minute bid to Republicans,” Black says. that gained the support of only Ultimately, though, several a few Republicans but almost all SOLID factors that helped polarize the the Democrats, who considered rest of the Southern electorate him to be more moderate than came to bear in Arkansas: race, his colleague Representative economics and social issues. Terry Rice (R). The Reagan Influence A Southern Trend When Ronald Reagan was With the Arkansas House SOUTH elected in 1980, 40 percent of and Senate now in GOP hands, RECENT REPUBLICAN VICTORIES IN THE white voters identified as con- the Republican takeover of state ARKANSAS GENERAL ASSEMBLY COMPLETED THE servatives. By the time he left legislative chambers in the for- SOUTH’S TOTAL TRANSFORMATION TO THE GOP. office in 1988, that percentage merly solid Democratic South is had jumped to 60. complete. Republican ranks increased “It started with the Florida by 50 percent in the 1980s, Senate going from a Democratic majority to a tied chamber in many white moderates among them. “When they started draining 1992. Ever since then, the South has gradually moved toward a majority of white conservatives and white moderates [from the the direction of the Republicans,” says Tim Storey, an elections Democrats], they had enough votes among whites to put them in analyst for NCSL. power,” says Black. “There wasn’t a single Republican chamber in And the shift just continued, culminating in 2010. “The 2010 the South 20 years ago; now every one is. That’s a elections were, I think, a reaction to the Obama-Pelosi economic tectonic shift in the political landscape.” agenda, which was way too liberal for these Southern states. “Arkansans are conservatives,” Speaker Car- That also accelerated in 2012. So the Republicans have had two ter says. The state was last to join its neighbors, cycles in a row at the state legislative level, where they went not because it doesn’t share those same con- from being slightly under 50 percent to now being 62 percent of servative values, Carter says, but because of its Speaker all [Southern state legislative] members,” Black says. most successful political son—what he calls the Davy Carter (R) As conservative white voters started shifting to the GOP, Bill Clinton influence. Arkansas social issues gained a higher profile within the party, says Lub- Clinton probably was an influence, says lin. “Typically, abortion under Ronald Reagan and gay rights David Lublin, professor of government at American University more recently. Those issues, along with things like school prayer in Washington, D.C. But previously, Arkansas’s Democrats and gun control, have tended to propel conservatives into the Republican Party,” he says. Eric Francis is a freelance journalist and Arkansas native. When Democrats could no longer play down the differences

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between themselves and Republicans on those issues, moder- now, I’ve got Republicans holding 62 percent of all legislative ate and conservative voters—who used to trend Democratic— seats in the South,” he adds. “It’s a big shift. Democrats are moved solidly into the GOP’s camp all over the South. “People down to 37.5 percent, the lowest they’ve been in recent times.” who hold conservative views on those things tend to be highly Black goes so far as to suggest the Democratic Party in the conservative in the South,” says Lublin. South is in its worst position since Reconstruction, and he thinks its chances are about to get worse. The Race Issue “In all these Deep South states, this was the first time in the The GOP’s gains among white voters in the Deep South had election cycle where the Republicans controlled the redistricting roots in the turmoil of the 1960s as African-American voters process,” he says. In 1992 and 2002, for the most part, Democrats began to move away from Abraham Lincoln’s GOP. “In the Deep still controlled the process. They didn’t necessarily get what they South, you’ve got this incredible racial polarization across the par- wanted, Black says, but they were in charge. Not this time. ties,” Black says. The racial division among voters is reflected in the demographic breakdown of The Crystal Ball legislators, he says. Given this trend, what are “Across the Deep South— the chances the Democrats will Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, regain sway in the South any- Mississippi, South Carolina—54 time soon? percent of all Democrats in state “Those numbers may fluctu- legislatures are African-Amer- ate a little bit, but I think we’re ican and 36 percent are white. looking at Republican majori- It’s literally an African-Amer- ties across these Southern states ican dominated party in state for the foreseeable future,” legislatures. The Republicans in Black says. the Deep South are 99.4 percent Storey agrees, noting there’s white.” no other part of the nation that In the Upper South states— is so unified in the shift to GOP Arkansas, North Carolina, Ten- dominance. “In other regions nessee and Virginia—more whites you’ve got some Republican (60 percent) than African-Ameri- chambers, some Democratic; cans (38 percent) still hold Demo- in the South it tends to go all cratic legislative seats. In Florida, one way or all another way,” he the party is split fairly evenly: 47 says. “This could reflect a lon- percent African-American and 45 ger-term shift for the South into percent white. the GOP column.” And then there’s Texas. The Jay Barth, a professor of Democratic Party in the Lone Star state is “18 percent white, politics at Hendrix College in Arkansas, isn’t as sure. He isn’t 25 percent African-American, 54 percent Hispanic, and about 3 convinced Arkansas voters are going to follow the path of other percent other minorities,” Black says. “In the Texas House and Southern states and push the GOP to a larger majority right away. Senate there are only 12 Anglo Democrats.” “After the closeness of the battle in the House, I’m not con- vinced that the momentum toward Republicanism is going to GOP Grip continue as emphatically,” he says. “I think the Republicans Just how dominant is Republicanism in the South? Profes- have some advantages in the state, looking forward, especially in sor Black can cite statistics at a fevered pace to demonstrate the terms of the parts of the state that are growing fastest. But there’s totality of the party’s grip in the region. a model out there—the Kentucky model. It’s just a bigger ver- “Take the 11 Southern states and their 22 state legislative sion of Arkansas in some ways. And it’s had a very stable, two- houses, and Republicans have a majority in 21 of those,” he says. party system in state politics, even though in the federal races “The only chamber they don’t control outright is the Virginia Democrats tend to get shellacked.” Senate, where there’s an even split between the two parties.” And that, Barth speculates, is how things might shape up in Since the tie-breaking vote rests with the Republican lieutenant future Arkansas elections. governor, however, it’s safe to say the chamber is functionally “It’s a different scenario than what we’ve seen elsewhere in in GOP hands. the South, where once Republicans gained control they kept on “The Democrats do not have a majority in any Southern leg- trucking,” he says. “I feel we’ll see something different develop islative chamber at this moment. That’s really amazing. Right in Arkansas.”

STATE LEGISLATURES | JULY/AUGUST 2013