Introduction 1

Item No B6 By: Assistant Director (Schools and Early Years)

To: School Organisation Advisory Board --- 12 February 2003

Subject: CASE FOR RE-ESTABLISHING A SECONDARY SCHOOL AT AYLESHAM

Classification: Unrestricted

File Ref:

______Summary: This report has been written in response to a request from Mr. Hansell (Member for Dover Rural). It recognises that there is a strong feeling within the Aylesham community that its secondary school should be reopened and explores the issues relating to this.

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Introduction 1. (1) Aylesham had its own secondary school until the early 1990s when it was closed because its numbers had declined to the extent that it was no-longer viable under Local Management formula funding. It was evident at that time, that children from a wide range of surrounding communities were not attracted to attend a secondary school in Aylesham in preference to schools elsewhere.

(2) Following the closure of the school, the buildings were developed as a community centre with a range of facilities including pre-school provision and IT. resources for adults.

(3) In 2001, the popularity of Sandwich Technology School, the school of choice for most Aylesham children, rendered it unable to offer places to that year’s cohort of Aylesham children. Sandwich Technology School has Foundation status and manages its own admissions. Aylesham is on the outer margins of the area from which it draws its pupils.

(4) In 2002, most Aylesham children transferring to a high school have obtained places at Archers Court or Astor schools in Dover. A few have gained places at Sandwich Technology School.

(5) The case being put forward for re-establishing a secondary school at Aylesham rests largely upon current proposals for the construction of between 800 and 1,000 new houses in the village. The earliest that such building could commence is 2004 and the rate of development is likely to be approximately 100 houses per year. Kent uses a research-based formula to calculate the numbers of pupils which new houses generate. For secondary (ages 11-16) this is 15 pupils per 100 new houses.

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(6) The number of primary age children in Aylesham as in the County as a whole, is currently falling which means that there will be fewer to transfer to secondary, and hence many children generated from new housing will simply fill current school places.

(7) The new housing at Alyesham is also a one-off proposal that is not intended to be followed by any further large-scale housing development, and hence the growth in pupil numbers that it will bring is most unlikely to be sustained.

Background 2. (1) Numbers of secondary school pupils in the Dover District (including those generated by new housing) are currently forecast to rise modestly until 2006-07 when it is anticipated that they will decline (see Appendix 1). Much will depend upon the pace with which new housing developments are completed, but even with anticipated new housing the overall numbers of children in primary schools are forecast to fall in most parts of the district.

(2) The forecasts in Appendix 1 already include the pupils likely to arise from 875 of the 1,000 dwellings proposed at Aylesham (the remainder would follow in the years beyond the end of the current projection period at 2011-12).

(3) Sandwich Technology School and Archers Court School in Dover have recently each been enlarged by a form of entry. A further two forms of entry are planned for Sandwich to meet existing pressure of numbers and prepare for proposed housing development in Sandwich and at Ash. These increases in capacity, together with improvements to accommodation at other schools should ensure that there are sufficient secondary school places to meet projected demand, although the timing of their completion may require temporary arrangements to overcome short-term difficulties.

(4) Two factors annually place additional pressure upon secondary school places in the Dover district:

(a) Roman Catholic children from the Folkestone area seek places at St Edmund’s school in Dover;

(b) Sandwich Technology School names three Thanet primary schools in its admissions criteria. Significant numbers of children from these schools apply for places at Sandwich.

(5) The impact of these two factors annually creates a degree of uncertainty about the sufficiency of secondary school places in Dover and Sandwich. Nevertheless, any future need to create secondary school places beyond those already planned would, on current projections, amount to one or a maximum of two additional forms of entry but not to a need for an additional school.

(6) It is difficult to be precise about the size which a secondary school must attain to be viable under Local Management, however OfSTED suggest that 6 forms of entry (180 places) is an ideal minimum size for a secondary school. Also the pupil numbers would need to be generated over a period of only a few years rather than spread over many years.

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The Proposal 3. (1) The viability of a secondary school at Aylesham would depend upon significant numbers of children from other nearby communities selecting it in preference to alternatives. Such a preference was not evident prior to the previous school’s closure.

(2) Before considering which communities might send their children to a secondary school in Aylesham, three preliminary factors must be considered:

(a) places would be available at other schools and so parents would need to make a conscious choice to send their children to Aylesham, rather than to alternative schools; (b) a proportion of children obtain places in selective schools each year. This figure is higher than the County average of 25% in some of the communities near to Aylesham;

(c) one of the primary schools in Aylesham is Roman Catholic Aided and currently sends a high proportion of its pupils to Catholic secondary schools in Canterbury and Dover. Some children from other nearby schools also elect to attend C of E or Catholic secondary schools. It must be assumed that many children would continue to make this choice even if a secondary school was opened in Aylesham.

(3) In order to consider the potential demand for places at a secondary school in Aylesham, (see also map as Appendix 2) primary schools within a 5 mile radius are listed in Appendix 3, with commentaries on the likelihood of their children electing to attend a secondary school in Aylesham.

(4) The data in Appendix 3 demonstrates that a secondary school in Aylesham would at best attract children who did not:

(a) gain a grammar school place;

(b) seek to attend a church aided school; or

(5) The data also suggests that the only primary schools likely to send any significant numbers of children to an Aylesham secondary school would be Aylesham, Adisham, Barham, Nonington and St, Joseph’s. This would not generate sufficient children to create a viable secondary school. Current demographic trends in Aylesham suggest that pupil numbers will again begin to fall when the construction of new houses is completed around 2014.

(6) To create a viable secondary school of minimum 6FE at Aylesham implies drawing pupils away from other secondary schools, which would consequently damage such schools due to a reduction in their rolls and therefore their budgets.

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Resource Implications 4. (1) The capital cost of establishing a secondary school at Aylesham would be considerable, whether it was new-build (approximately £15m plus land) or reinstatement of the existing building (with consequent loss of the community facility). There is no Basic Need case in the Dover District sufficient to fund this and new borrowing arrangements for LEAs are unclear at this time.

(2) Once established, the school would need to attract sufficient pupils to generate funding to meet its revenue costs. Projections suggest that it would be unable to do this.

Transport and Road Safety Implications 5. (1) Opening a secondary school at Aylesham would gradually reduce the need for children from the village to travel to Dover, Sandwich and Canterbury. Some travelling would continue, however, due to children attending grammar and denominational schools.

(2) It cannot be assumed that existing Aylesham secondary school children would leave their current secondary schools upon the opening of a secondary school in Aylesham. Some, particularly years 10 and 11 pupils engaged in GCSE courses, would probably wish to continue where they are.

(3) While a journey to Aylesham might be shorter for children from nearby communities, it would be little different or even longer for others within the 5 mile radius than travelling to their current schools. Indeed creating a school of viable size might bring significant extra traffic into Aylesham.

School Improvement Implications 6. (1) It is difficult to identify any school improvement implications, other than those associated with reduced time spent travelling.

(2) Factors which might potentially have a negative impact on school improvement are:

(a) interaction with a narrowed social peer group;

(b) difficulty in attracting a sufficient supply of high quality teachers in an area which already experiences some problems in recruiting teaching staff;

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Conclusion 7. (1) Taking the minimum size for a viable secondary school as 6 forms of entry, and knowing that other schools are available within several miles, it is unlikely that the Schools Adjudicator would approve the setting up of an unviable school. Evidence currently suggests that a secondary school at Aylesham would not achieve the necessary number of pupils to ensure its viability.

(2) The closure of Aylesham Secondary School in the 1990s was unpopular with local residents, but new national funding arrangements made it inevitable. It is appreciated that the Aylesham community wishes a secondary school to be re- established and believes that new housing might strengthen its case. However, projections do not currently suggest that even with 1,000 new houses that there will be enough secondary pupils on a continuing basis to support a viable new secondary school at Aylesham.

Chris Jones District Schools Officer - Dover Tel: (01227) 284462

Background Documents:

None

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APPENDIX 1

TABLE SHOWING CURRENT CAPACITY AND FORECASTS INCLUDING PROJECTED SHORTFALL IN PLACES FOR 2002 TO 2012 – ALL DOVER DISTRICT SECONDARY SCHOOLS (YEARS 7 - 11)

SCHOOL STANDARD STANDARD AMP 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 NUMBER * NUMBER CAPACITY CAPACITY (YRS 7-11) SELECTIVE SCHLS Dover Grammar Schl for Boys 120 600 680 553 558 549 551 544 532 522 514 503 495 Dover Grammar Schl for Girls 120 600 672 573 576 567 552 553 540 530 523 512 505 Sir Roger Manwood’s Schl 120 600 869 688 703 687 672 675 660 648 639 623 617 Total Selective Schools 360 1800 2221 1814 1837 1803 1775 1772 1732 1700 1676 1638 1617

NON SELECTIVE Archer’s Court School 180 900 845 809 817 822 820 811 809 807 825 831 829 Astor School 240 1200 1387 1232 1218 1199 1204 1198 1175 1155 1141 1109 1099 Castle Community Schl 120 600 699 415 405 389 378 378 358 345 332 320 312 Sandwich Technology Schl 240 1200 1242 1024 1091 1104 1117 1112 1082 1069 1050 1036 1025 St. Edmund’s Catholic Schl 120 600 781 669 700 702 711 710 701 697 696 692 685 Walmer Schl 117 585 779 757 777 781 780 758 728 703 683 660 643 Total non selective schls 1017 5085 5733 4906 5008 4997 5010 4967 4853 4776 4727 4648 4593 GRAND TOTAL 1377 6885 7954 6720 6845 6800 6785 6739 6585 6476 6403 6286 6210 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 Forecast pupil numbers including 6787 6950 6952 6986 6984 6873 6805 6760 6659 6601 possible pupil housing product Surplus based on current Std. Nos 98 -65 -67 -101 -99 12 80 125 226 284 (Yrs 7-11) Surplus based on AMP capacity 1167 1004 1002 968 970 1081 1249 1194 1295 1353 (Yrs 7-11) Surplus based on AMP 67 -153 -227 -288 -258 -160 -127 -54 76 155 when sixth form included

* Standard Number: Schools must admit at least up to this number each year. Note: The overall AMP capacity will be increased by work which is in progress or recently completed at the following schools: Dover Grammar School for Girls Archers Court Capacities include proposed enlargement of Sandwich Technology School currently subject to public consultation

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APPENDIX 3 Communities within a 5 mile radius of Aylesham

Adisham Of 20 year 6 pupils, 40% transferred to a grammar or church aided secondary school in 2002. Other children might choose a secondary school in Aylesham but this cannot be certain Aylesham 28% of its 49 pupils obtained grammar school places in 2002. It Primary may be assumed that most non-selective pupils would choose to attend a secondary school in Aylesham. Barham 70% of Barham children transferred to a selective or church aided secondary school in 2002. It cannot be certain that the remainder would have chosen to attend a school in Aylesham. Bridge and Of 51 year 6 pupils, 78% transferred to grammar, church aided or Patrixbourne independent schools in 2002. There are strong links with Canterbury secondary schools and it is unlikely parents would choose a secondary school in Aylesham. Cartwright & This school is in Ash. It is near to Sandwich and has strong links Kelsey with the secondary schools there. Eastry Eastry is also close to Sandwich and not likely to use a secondary school in Aylesham. Eythorne & There are strong existing links with Dover schools. It cannot be Elvington assumed that these communities would wish to change this. Goodnestone This school is part of the Sandwich consortium and has strong links with Sandwich secondary schools. It is unlikely that parents would relinquish these and choose a secondary school at Aylesham. Littlebourne Littlebourne is significantly closer by road to Canterbury than to Aylesham. Lydden Lydden has easy access to Dover secondary schools. Nonnington Of the 8 Nonington children who transferred to secondary school in 2002, 6 obtained places in grammar schools. The pupil roll at Nonington is currently increasing and it is unlikely that such a high proportion of children will gain selective places every year. Selsted Children from Selsted currently transfer to Folkestone secondary schools and would be unlikely to consider a school at Aylesham. Sibertswold Almost all children from this school travel to Dover for their secondary education. The journey by bus to Aylesham would not be greatly easier than to Dover, and so there is no reason to believe that current practice would change. St Joseph’s 72% of St Joseph’s year 6 pupils transferred to either a Roman Catholic or a grammar school in 2002. It is reasonable to suppose that more parents might choose a non-church school if there was one in Aylesham, but this cannot be certain. Wickhambreaux This school is much nearer to Canterbury than to Aylesham. Wingham This primary school sent 60% of its 30 year 6 pupils to grammar or church aided schools in 2002. The remainder overwhelmingly chose Sandwich Technology School, which names Wingham in its admissions policy.

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3rd draft – 21 January – to go back onto WP.

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