CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 CMDR COE PROCEEDINGS 2014–2015 Editorial Board: Orlin Nikolov, Vassil Roussinov Mihaela Kouteva-Guentcheva Juliana Karakaneva, Jordan Tabov Lyubka Pashova, Nikolay Tomov Milen Milkov, Rositsa Ruseva Irena Nikolova, Iliyan Hutov Technical Board: Boris Guenov, Desislav Zmeev Svetlin Denchev, Zornitsa Doychinova CRISIS MANAGEMENT AND DISASTER RESPONSE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE (CMDR COE) 1 CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence (CMDR COE), September 2015 All rights reserved. Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence (CMDR COE) 34A Totleben Boulevard, Shipka Hotel, floor 2 1606 Sofia BULGARIA Phones: 359 29224700, 359 2 9224705 Fax: 359 2 9224755 www.cmdrcoe.org Published in Bulgaria ISSN 2367-766X Published by Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, CMDR COE Editors: Orlin Nikolov, Vassil Roussinov, Milen Milkov, Rositsa Ruseva, Juliana Karakaneva, Jordan Tabov, Lyubka Pashova, Nikolay Tomov, Mihaela Kouteva-Guentcheva, Irena Nikolova, Iliyan Hutov Front cover: Boris Guenov Design: Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence, CMDR COE CMDR COE Proceedings accepts publications submission of papers in the crisis management and disaster relief domain. Any views or opinions presented in this book are solely those of the author/s and do not necessarily represent those of the CMDR COE. Authors are responsible for the content of their papers and for the quality of the English language, used in the paper. It is also the authors’ responsibility to ensure that data have been collected in an ethical manner. Authors are responsible for disclosing potential conflicts of interest. 2 CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 Ladies and Gentlemen, Seeing the first issue of CMDR COE Proceeding I am pleased of our common effort. At times like these, it is important that we stand together with unity of purpose and unity of actions. I am confident that by working closely together, by coordinating precisely together, we reinforce our security environment. We live in a time when our security landscape is marked by persistent conflict, constant change, and enormous complexity as the future holds uncertainty of man-made crises – political, financial, and social, in addition to the increasing natural resource competition, demographic changes, violent extremism. Living in a world in which disaster can strike from a number of fronts we have an obligation to be better prepared to face and overcome challenges. This is not a concrete agenda full of deadlines but includes activities and performances, which in reality determine the effectiveness and profitability of our long-term ambitions. It is recognized that peace, security, development and stability are more interconnected than ever, placing a premium on close interaction amongst all actors involved assuming their respective roles in crisis prevention and management. My organization, the Crisis Management and Disaster Response Centre of Excellence maintains the idea that no one alone is sufficient to prevent or manage crises. Success requires enhanced interaction amongst the whole spectrum of actors at all levels before and during engagement. Based on our activities in the last 2 years the present issue of CMDR COE Proceeding 2014-2015 hereafter focus attention to factors that will largely shape, in my humble opinion, the implications to the complex of actions and interactions in response of disasters and management of crisis. Vassil ROUSSINOV CMDR COE Director September 2015 3 CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 C O N T E N T S ABOUT THE CMDR COE SEMINARS 8 AGENDA CMDR COE SEMINAR 2014 9 AGENDA CMDR COE SEMINAR 2015 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR EXPERT EARTHQUAKE RISK ESTIMATION FOR THE BULGARIAN TERRITORY USING GIS ENVIRONMENT - BUILDING RELEVANT DATA SETS 15 Mihaela KOUTEVA, Lyubka PASHOVA, Temenoujka BANDROVA, Silvia MARINOVA, Stefan BONCHEV, Mariyan MARKOV Introduction – The Earthquakes’ Lesson 15 Earthquake Risk - General Risk Concept 18 The UACEG - CNIP - БН 164/14 Project – Building Relevant Data Sets 21 Conclusive Remarks and Possibilities For Further Collaboration with Crisis Management and Disaster Response COE 28 THE SYRIAN CRISIS AND IMPLICATIONS WORLDWIDE 2011-2013 REVIEW 36 Boris GUENOV, Stoyan STOYANOV, Kostadin LAZAROV, Nikolay NIKOLOV, Orlin NIKOLOV Brief Chronic 36 The Syrian Crisis Affects 48 The International Humanitarian Response 61 Major Needs and Related Problems 63 The Refugee Impact 65 A SUMMARIZED ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE OF AREAS AFFECTED BY THE SNOWFALLS IN THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA AND A FORECAST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SITUATION 73 Aleksandar GEORGIEV, Stoyan STOYANOV, Kostadin LAZAROV, Desislav ZMEEV, Orlin NIKOLOV Day-By-Day Emergency Development 73 Analysis and Forecast of the Hydrometeorological Situation in the Republic of Bulgaria for the Next Two Weeks 81 Analysis of Road Traffic Situation Related to Current Landslides Activation Processes 86 Conclusions and Proposals 88 4 CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 THE DISASTER IN THE CITY OF VARNA ON 19 JUNE 2014 – OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS 92 Stoyan STOYANOV, Philip SPASSOV Introduction 92 Climate Assessment 92 Severe Weather Conditions Color-Codes 92 Meteorological Data for the Period 18-20 June 2014 – Provided by NIMH - BAS 94 The State Agencies Reaction 95 Analysis of the Overall Situation and Available Data 97 Conclusions and Recommendations 104 NATO CRISIS MANAGEMENT 107 Vassil ROUSSINOV, Stoyan STOYANOV Etymology 107 NATO’s Strategic Concepts 107 Crisis Decision - Making at NATO 108 NATO’s Role in Crisis Management 109 Prepared for Article 5 Operations 109 Engaging in Non-Article 5 Crisis Response Operations 109 NATO and Disaster Relief Operations 109 A ‘’Comprehensive Approach’’ to Crisis Management 110 NATO’s Readiness Action Plan 111 Conclusion 112 CLIMATE AND GEOGRAPHICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE URBAN OPERATIONS - ALLIED COMMAND TRANSFORMATION URBANIZATION PROJECT (Project 75_01_31 (New Concept 1)) 114 David J. KILCULLEN Definitions and Sources 114 Primary Geography and Climate Concerns Impacting on NATO in 2035 116 Impact of Geography and Climate on NATO in 2035 118 Conclusion 123 THE CONDUCT OF FUTURE OPERATIONS IN THE URBAN LITTORAL AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR NATO 127 David J. KILCULLEN Defining the Urban Littoral 127 5 CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 Impact of the Urban Networked Littoral 133 Joint NATO Urban Littoral Operations 135 Technology in the Urban Littoral 141 Threats in the Future Urbanized, Networked Littoral 142 Implications and Capability Gaps 145 Key Findings and Conclusions 147 USE OF THE MILITARY IN HUMANITARIAN RELIEF 150 Frederick C. CUNY Introduction 150 Reasons for Involvement 154 Deployment Scenarios 155 Deployment Models 158 Case Studies 159 The Nature of Third World Disasters 165 Dilemmas Facing Foreign Military Units in Humanitarian Operations 167 Conclusions 171 DEVELOPMENT OF DISTRIBUTED ENVIRONMENT IN SUPPORT OF SECURITY CAPABILITIES IN THE BALKANS REGION 173 Orlin NIKOLOV Introduction 173 Joint Initiatives with the Neighborhoods 174 Conducting of the Experiments and Exercises 178 Results Affected by Conducting of the Exercises 182 SEETN Project 184 Conclusion 190 INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENT FOR CRISES MANAGEMENT AND DISASTER RESPONSE TRAINING 193 Irena NIKOLOVA, Nikolay TOMOV Introduction 193 CMDR Training Trough a Civilian Perspective 194 Simulation and Gaming in CMDR 195 Integrated (Distributed) Training Environment 198 6 CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 The Simulation 199 Interoperability GapIntegrated Management of CMDR Training Environment 200 Computer Assisted Exercise Concept 203 Conclusions 203 REDEFINING THE ROLE OF HUMANITARIANORGANIZATIONS IN TAKING CARE OF CIVILIANS DURING EMERGENCIES 206 Katarina STRBAC Emergencies - How to Define? 206 Emergency Preparedness 207 Types of Emergencies 209 Humanitarian Organizations 209 Type of Humanitarian Organizations 210 Improving Standards for the Provision of Aid 215 Conclusion 217 ANTI-TERRORIST SYSTEM FOR CONTROL, ANNOUNCEMENT AND REACTION (ASCAR) 220 Nikolai Mladenov, Georgi Petkov, Stiliyan Kalitzin, Nikolay Valev, Nikolay Mihaylov Introduction 220 ASCAR Overview 221 Objectives and Motivation 222 Inovations and Scientific Value Behind the System 222 Conclusion 230 7 CMDR COE Proceedings 2014-2015 ABOUT THE CMDR COE SEMINARS The CMDR Interagency Interaction Seminars are annual events which gather subject matter experts, researchers and educators, planners and developers, consultants and various actors working in the crisis management and disaster response domain in order to promote a lively debate on these issues. Every year, a lot of representatives of different NATO and PfP nations take part in the CMDR COE annual seminars. The annual event aims to improve the common understanding of interagency cooperation in the area of CMDR and to contribute to the Comprehensive Approach in this field. The latest CMDR COE annual Interagency Interaction Seminar was carried out in the period 8-9 JUN 2015 at Boyana Residence, Sofia, Bulgaria. This annual event, third in a row, enables SMEs from NATO and Partner nations to share their views and thoughts in perspectives on cooperation and collaboration issues of common interest. The CMDR COE intent is to facilitate the exchange of ideas regarding transformation throughout the transatlantic community by creating a common understanding in the sphere of crisis management and disaster response. Contributions have been sought from people active in