Weekly Review // September 09 - 15, 2015 SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

Observatory

Southeastern Europe Intelligence Unit is formed by an ambitious group of young scientists which focuses on the political, economic, defense and security developments in the wider region of Southeastern Europe. Our main task is the “Southeastern Europe Observatory” to become a credible, detailed, objective and flexible “tool” of information and short analysis targeted at researchers and professionals who are interested in current affairs of this sensitive and crucial part of the European continent. In each weekly review, you will find the most significant news of the previous week in the region.

TOP NEWS FROM THE REGION

ALBANIA: - September 9th, The publication of the of the voter registration system, and the voters’ ability to final report by OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission cast their vote freely were the most important irregularities regarding the local elections in Albania on June 21st, 2015 during the elections. Finally, the report underlines that the raised different reactions in the country. Leader of the main elections were an important test of ongoing reform of local opposition party, the Democratic Party of Albania (Partia government and of Albania’s recent attainment of Demokratike e Shqipërisë – PD), Lulzim Basha stated that European Union candidate status. the report is the “black spot” of the electoral process in (www.albaniannews.com, www.osce.org) Albania since 2003 emphasizing that OSCE concludes that the elections were not free and fair, voters’ freedom was - September 9th , Leader of the opposition, Lulzim Basha violated and finally during the elections the state fought invited all Albanians to join DP’s largest protest ever against its own citizens. On the other side, Edi Rama, organized against the Government and especially against Prime Minister of Albania and leader of the ruling Socialist the duo Rama and Meta (Edi Rama, Prime Minister and Ilir Party of Albania (Partia Socialiste e Shqipërisë – PS) Meta, Speaker of the Parliament). According to Basha the reacted claiming that “DP leader is talking a lot of two men “have made alliance with the most dangerous nonsense” . According to OSCE/ ODIHR Election gangs”. (www.albaniannews.com) Observation Mission final report although the fundamental freedoms and rights were generally respected and the - September 14th, Albanian police announced that has elections day was assessed positively some important destroyed more than 650,000 cannabis trees worth seven procedural irregularities were observed. Politicization of billion Euros since the beginning of the year. Police were state institutions, gaps and ambiguities in the legislation on helped by their Italian counterparts who provided several important aspects of the electoral process, the information as well as helicopters for some operations. politicized nature of the Central Electoral Committee (CEC) Police Chief, Haki Cako said "Due to large-scale operations which undermined public confidence in the independence conducted last year, we had a decrease in the number of of the electoral administration, concerns about the integrity

1 Weekly Review // September 09 - 15, 2015 large areas where cannabis was grown". months we will stabilize the parliamentary majority in the (www.nation.com.pk) FB&H”. (www.sarajevotimes.com)

 BULGARIA: - September 9th, A major diplomatic  BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA: - September 9th, case broke out between Bulgaria and Russia when the first The Constitutional Court of Republica Srpska (RS) rejected refused to allow the Russian military aircrafts to overfly via the veto of Bosniak Muslims on the decision of National the Bulgarian airspace. Bulgarian Government announced Assembly on calling a referendum regarding the function of that had reliable information that the aircrafts did not carry the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of B&H. After the humanitarian aid to Syria but weapons and troops. Constitutional Court’s decision the referendum might enter Although the Bulgarian Deputy Defense Minister, Dimitar into force. Bosniaks raised questions over the referendum Kyumyurdzhiev said that there was not diplomatic pressure claiming violation of vital national interest but the Court had from other countries to Bulgaria Russian officials reacted different opinion. There are a lot of questions regarding the claiming that “Bulgaria acted like a vassal to United States”. constitutionality of the referendum since there is a Minister of Foreign Affairs, Daniel Mitov, stated that his controversy over the jurisdiction of RS’s National Assembly country will allow the Russians aircrafts to overfly over to call a referendum about this issue. The Party of Bulgaria only if Moscow agrees to inspections. Democratic Action (Stranka demokratske akcije – SDA) (www.novinite.com) which represents Bosniaks’ interests strongly reacted in Court’s decision and condemned it while it invited the September 13th, Bulgarian Minister of Defense, Nikolay international community and especially the Office of High Nenchev claimed that the armed forces will need millions of Representative in B&H (OHR) to take measures against a Euros to meet their current needs and expenses over the decision which violates the “Dayton Agreement” and next few years. More specifically he stated that the destabilizes the country. (www.sarajevotimes.com) increase of the minimum salary next year will require almost 29 million Euros more until 2018 while a - September 14th, The ruling coalition of SDA and Croatian modernization program for the improvement of the defense Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Hrvatska capabilities requires almost 77 million Euros. Finally 51 demokratska zajednica Bosne i Hercegovine – HDZ B&H) million Euros are required for the debt of the Military tries to resolve the governmental crisis which broke out last Medical Academy which occurred after a financial scandal June after the withdrawal of the third part, the Democratic earlier this year. Nenchev underlined once again that the Front (Demokratska fronta – DF). The coalition lost its armed forces does not receive enough funding to respond parliamentary majority and plans to replace DF with to their obligations and needs. Defense Minister has an ally another party. After a meeting which was held between the in his claims; the Bulgarian President, Rosen Plenveliev leaders of the two parties, Bakir Izetbegovic (SDA) and who strongly supports the increase of defense budget in Dragan Covic (HDZ B&H) in Mostar it was announced that order Bulgaria to reach the NATO requirements. On the the Alliance for Better Future (Savez za bolju budućnost other hand Prime Minister, Boyko Borisov has the opinion BiH – SBB B&H) is an option since both leaders agreed that increase of the military expenditure is not possible that SBB B&H has the necessary capacities to become a before next year. (www.novinite.com) governmental partner. Covic stated: “In the next two

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CROATIA: - September 12th, President of Croatia, model that has been used in Egypt in order to reassess the Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic paid a three day visit to Bosnia & results in Cypriot blocks. During the visit ENI – KOGAS Herzegovina from September 10th to 12th, 2015. During her had asked the Cypriot government for an extension earlier stay President Grabar-Kitarovic visited Republica Srpska in the year to re-evaluate its geological model after it twice (RS) where she met with representatives of the Croat failed to find exploitable hydrocarbons in Cyprus’ Block 9. community living in the Bosnian Serb entity. According to More specifically, the company had asked for an extension them Croatian state and its Governments did not help until February 2018 to reassess the energy potential in the Croats in RS sufficiently since only 3% of Croat refugees East Levant where it operates. Finally the Descalzi claimed have returned in their pre – war homes. According to data that natural gas found in Cyprus may enter the European from the Roman Catholic diocese of Banja Luka, around market through the company’s facilities in Egypt. 10,000 Croats live today in RS as against 220,000 before (www.cyprus-mail.com) the 1992-95 war. Croatian President expressed her disappointment for what Croatia does for Croats in RS and - September 14th, United Nations (UN) announced expressed the opinion that Croatia should increase its intensity of actions regarding the reunification process of financial aid and other assistance in order to facilitate the the island in the coming months since the two leaders of return of refugees to their home. (www.dalje.com) the devided communities, President Nikos Anastasiades and the self – proclaimed “President” of the occupied part CYPRUS: - September 9th, President Nikos of Cyprus, Mustafa Akinci agreed to intensify their work in a Anastasiades appointed Chief Superintendent Marios bid to reach a settlement as soon as possible. Special Christofides as the interim chief of the state’s intelligence Adviser of the Secretary-General Espen Barth Eide service. Christofides is the successor of Antreas Pentaras announced that Anastasiades and Akinci will next meet on who resigned last July due to a phone surveillance scandal. October 12th, and October 30th. President Anastasiades According to the Government Christofides will remain as expressed his determination “to work intensively in a bid to interim chief since the intelligence service “law” pending find an agreement that is acceptable to both communities, approval. (www.cyprus-mail.com) based on the recognised rights of European and Cypriot

- September 10th, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of the Italian citizens”. On the other hand Akinci expressed his will for energy company ENI paid a visit in Cyprus where he met comprehensive solution before the May 2016 parliamentary with President Anastasiades and expressed the company’s elections in Cyprus. (www.cyprus-mail.com) strong commitment to continue its exploration in Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where the corporation ENI F.Y.R. MACEDONIA: - September 10th, F.Y.R.O.M – KOGAS (South Korean energy company) holds three Army Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Metodija blocks. Descalzi linked the companies’ activity in Cyprus Velichkovski expressed his expectation that NATO will with the recent announcement of ENI that has discovered a invite his country to join the alliance at the summit planned gas field estimated to 30 trillion cubic feet in the Egyptian for Warsaw in 2016. General Velichkovski underlined that EEZ (Zohr field), the biggest discovery in the he expects all 5 countries of the Adriatic Charter will join Mediterranean and the world’s 20th largest. Acoording to NATO. Adriatic Charter is a US supported group of 5 ENI’s CEO the company may use the same geological states, Albania, F.Y.R.O.M, Croatia, Montenegro and

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Bosnia & Herzegovina. Albania and Croatia have joined the appointment of several SDSM (main opposition party) alliance so far while F.Y.R.O.M and Montenegro have put a candidates in the Government while in mid January current strong candidacy to become full members. General Prime Minister Nicola Gruevski will resign and give his Velichkovski added “We know that inviting a country to join office to a new person coming from VMRO-DPMNE. Finally NATO is a political decision, but when it comes to meeting early parliamentary elections will be held on April 24th, the conditions for membership, F.Y.R. of Macedonia has 2016. (www.mia.mk) done it long ago and is a leader in the region. Our battalion GREECE: - September 10th, Greek unemployment battle group has also been qualified as leading in the rate showed a slight increase in June 2015, rising to 25.2% region”. Greece has been blocked F.Y.R.O.M’s entrance to from 25% in May, noted the Hellenic Statistical Authority NATO at the Bucharest summit in 2008 due to the “name” (ELSTAT). Furthermore, according to the data, the Greek dispute. (www.mia.mk) unemployment rate has decreased since its all-time-high in September 2013 (27.9%), especially after the economy stabilized over the last year. However, it still remains at double the Eurozone’s average rate, as noted by Reuters, which stood at 10.9% in July, its lowest level in the last three years. (www.reuters.com, www.statistics.gr, www.greekreporter .com)

- September 11th, The leftist party Coalition of Radical Left (Συνασπισμός της Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς –SYRIZA) is expected to be the winner of the coming elections on September 20th, 2015 without gaining the absolute majority of the Parliament. Under this circumstances SYRIZA will be obliged to form a Government either with his current ally,

the right party Independent Greeks (Ανεξάρτητοι Έλληνες – F.Y.R.O.M Army Chief of Staff ANEL) if the make it to enter the Parliament or with new Lieutenant General Metodija Velichkovski partners. However, almost 64% of the voters believe that Photo source: www.arm.mil.mk Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras made a mistake by calling early elections and this may cost to his party the absolute - September 15th, Katica Janeva, Public Prosecutor of dominance in the Parliament. Tsipras this week ruled out Gevgelija, has been appointed as the state’s Special cooperating with the main pro-euro opposition parties - prosecutor after an agreement of the four largest parties of New Democracy (Νέα Δημοκρατία - ND, the Socialist Party the country (VMRO-DPMNE, SDSM, DUI and DPA). The of Greece (Πανελλήνιο Σοσιαλιστικό Κόμμα – PASOK) and Council of Prosecutors has ratified the Parliament’s the centrist «To Potami» (To ποτάμι). (www.reuters.com) proposal fulfilling a part of the political agreement brokered by the EU in order to normalize the country’s political life. - September 15th, While the number of refugees entering Next step of the agreement’s “road map” is the the Greek islands of East Aegean Sea in increased the EU

4 Weekly Review // September 09 - 15, 2015 announced that will provide Greece with 30 million Euros in MOLDOVA: - September 13th, The “Dignity and order to support the country’s efforts to deal with the crisis. Truth Platform” organized a new demonstration in Chisinau The Greek Ministry of Interior submitted all the necessary against the Government bringing thousands of people in documents for the establishment of an agency that will the streets of the city. Representatives of the civic group handle the money given for the refugee crisis. Moreover, announced the establishment of a new party in order to Natasha Bertaud, another European Commission express their interests adding that they demand early spokesperson noted that FRONTEX, EUROPOL, and elections in spring 2016. Leaders of the platform claimed European Asylum Support Office agents will be deployed at that they will continue their protests expanding them all the port of Piraeus (Greece) and Sicily (Italy) to help with over the country. (www.moldova.org, www.moldpress.md) the registration, identification, and location of migrants and refugees. (www.kathimerini.gr)

 KOSOVO (Under 1244 UNSC Resolution): - September 9th, According to the Kosovo Minister of Internal Affairs, Skender Hyseni stated that his country does not face significant threats and the security situation is good.

However he underlined that his Ministry and the security services are vigilant for potential risks. Finally he added Thousands of people demonstrated in Chisinau that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is in close cooperation Photo source: www.moldova.org with the state’s intelligence service (Agjencisa së Kosovës për Inteligjencë – AKI) regarding early warning of possible MONTENEGRO: - September 15th, Prime Minister, security threats. (www.gazettaexpress.com) Milos Djukanovic had a telephone conversation with the - September 9th, Leaders of the opposition have called U.S. Vice President, Joseph Biden where the second people to join protests in order to overthrow Kosovo expressed his support in Montenegro’s efforts to join Government. The opposition parties of “Self-Determination” NATO. He added that the country should continue the (Vetëvendosje – VV), “Alliance for the Future of Kosovo” reforms focusing on corruption and organized crime. He (Aleanca për Ardhmërinë e Kosovës – AAK) and “Initiative added that the U.S is prepared to support extending a for Kosovo” (Nisma për Kosovën – NISMA) are trying to membership invitation to Montenegro at December meeting conduct a joint effort against the Government although they of NATO Foreign Ministers. Djukanovic expressed the have failed to form a united opposition front. The protests opinion that Montenegro’s accession to NATO will will focus on the two agreements the Government has strengthen regional stability in Southeastern Europe and signed; The Association of Serb majority Municipalities and demonstrate NATO’s credibility regarding “open door” demarcation with Montenegro. The question is whether or policy. (www.balkans.com) not opposition will manage to mobilize people sending a th message to the Government. (www.gazetaexpress.com) ROMANIA: - September 11 , The European Commission (EC) spokesperson, Natasha Bertaud, said that Romania and Bulgaria fully meet the criteria for

5 Weekly Review // September 09 - 15, 2015 becoming members of the Schengen area. However she Kosovo Minister of Education, Arsim Bajrami, this is the stressed that the decision belongs to the European Council first official distribution of Albanian – language books to and it is not a matter of the EC. Romanian Prime Minister, school in Presevo Valley (where a large Albanian Victor Ponta complaint about injustice: “Now we can see community exists) since the end of the war in the injustice done to Romania with the Schengen 1999. (www.balkaninsight.com) accession, as the very same countries that now ask us to - September 11th, Albanian leaders of South Serbia plan to help with the refugee problem are the countries that have establish their own municipal union, like the Serbian one in postponed our Schengen accession”. (www.romania- Kosovo. Mayor of Bujanovac, Nagip Arifi, stated that they insider.com) think of forming the Association of Municipalities in order to - September 14th, Romania faces financial sanctions due to protect their civil and human rights which are violated by its opposition against the mandatory refugees’ quotas for the Serbian authorities. On the other hand Serbs have the EU member states. The management of the refugee warned their authorities for potential provocations in the crisis has divided the EU countries since a certain group of region. (www.balkaninsight.com) them including Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania claims that the proposed quotas will bring to their territory more refugees than they could handle. On the other hand the other EU states propose cutting of the EU funds against the so-called “Eastern Block” which opposes to the EU refugees management. According to the EC proposals, Romania should receive 6,300 refugees, while the country claims that it could not receive more than 1,700 people. (www.romania-insider.com)

SERBIA: - September 9th, Antenna group, owned to the Greek businessman Kyriakou, acquired a controlling Mayor of Bujanovac, Nagib Arifi stake in Serbia’s B92 broadcaster station for undisclosed Photo source: www.balkaninsight.com fee. B92 is one of the most influential stations in the country by developing a multimedia broadcast platform SLOVENIA: - September 10th, The Government including TV, digital media and radio. By this acquisition dismissed the head of the Defence Ministry's intelligence Antenna group has presence in six countries of and security service, Gorazd Rednak, who has resigned Southeastern Europe (Bulgaria, Greece, Montenegro, since June 10th, 2015. The newly appointed General Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia). (www.ant1.gr, Director Franc Trbovsek is considered as the appropriate www.broadbandtvnews.com) one for the position by the Minister of Defense, Andreja

- September 10th, Serbia and Kosovo agreed to exchange Katic. Rednak has been considered as responsible for his school textbooks. Serbia will provide books for the Serbian service weakness to provide credible assessment for the community in Kosovo while Kosovo will supply with books potential effects of the state’s telecommunication company the Albanian communities in Serbia. According to the TELEKOM. (www.primorske.si) 6 Weekly Review // September 09 - 15, 2015

 ------EDITORIAL TEAM TURKEY: - September 10th, Social tension rises in Turkey as the escalation of violence between Turkish Ioannis Karampelas armed forces and the outlawed Kurdistan’s Workers Party Editor in Chief (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê – PKK) infiltrates in Turkish society. In September 9th, 2015 Turkish nationalists demonstrated across the country and attacked in the Assistants offices of the largest Kurdish party in Turkey, People’s Demetra Bitsa Democratic Party (Halkların Demokratik Partisi - HDP) in Ankara, and Alanya. Moreover the mobs attacked in Hyrriet’s (a center – left newspaper) offices in Istanbul for a second time in three nights. Although HDP distanced itself from PKK attacks high ranked officials of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) insist on targeting the Kurdish party for the outbreak of violence in the country. For instance Deputy Prime Minister, Yalcin Akdogan acused HDP of supporting PKK’s action claiming that “HDP is the extension of PKK”. (www.neurope.eu, www.hurriyetdailynews.com)

- September 11th, Almost two weeks before the November 1st parliamentary elections the parties intensify their efforts to form alliances and coalitions in order to strengthen their power. First of all of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) which did not achieve to receive enough votes to form a single party Government in June’s elections conducts negotiations with the Islamic based Felicity party (Saadet Partisi – SAADET). SAADET asked for twenty seats quota while AKP offered six – seven seats, an offer that was not accepted. However AKP approaches members of SAADET, such as Fatih Erbakan, the son of Necmettin Erdogan, offering them places in AKP’s ticket in a try to weaken SAADET. On the other hand there are rumors that the Nationalist Movement Party (Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi – MHP) tries to form a nationalist front with the Islamic based far right Great Union Party (Büyük Birlik Partisi – BBP). (www.aljazeera.com)

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