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Public Opinion Poll Residents of Kyrgyzstan

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Public Opinion Poll Residents of Kyrgyzstan Public Opinion Poll Residents of Kyrgyzstan August 6 – August 15, 2020 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by SIAR Research & Consulting. • Data was collected between August 6 – August 15, 2020 though computer-assisted telephone interviews administered via both mobile and landline numbers. • The sample consisted of n=1,223 residents of Kyrgyzstan, aged 18 and older. • A multi-stage sampling method was used to design a nationally representative sample according to National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic’s 2019 Demographic Yearbook of the Kyrgyz Republic (January 1, 2019). The sample was stratified by oblast/city and urbanicity. • An initial database of mobile and landline numbers was assembled that comprised two separate sources. Seventy- five percent of the database’s numbers are sourced from SIAR’s proprietary database of previous survey participant phone numbers. SIAR’s database is derived from phone numbers collected during nationally- representative surveys conducted throughout the past twelve months. The remaining twenty-five percent of the database’s phone numbers are randomly generated from area codes used by operators at the time of this study. Numbers were randomly selected from the combined database. • The respondent selection methodology depended on the type of line used to contact respondents. For mobile numbers, the mobile phone user is selected. For landline numbers shared by multiple individuals, the last birthday protocol is used for randomized respondent selection. • The data is weighted by oblast/city, urbanicity, age and gender according to the 2019 Demographic Yearbook of the Kyrgyz Republic. • The response rate for the survey was 47 percent. • The margin of error at the mid-range of the full sample does not exceed ±2.8 points at the 95 percent confidence level. • Interviews were conducted in Kyrgyz (63 percent), Russian (35 percent), and Uzbek (2 percent). • Cited bases are weighted. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. 2 Frequently Cited Disaggregates Disaggregate Disaggregation Category Base Bishkek City n=210 Chui Oblast n=187 Issyk-Kul Oblast n=93 Naryn Oblast n=53 Oblast/City Talas Oblast n=47 Osh Oblast n=240 Jalal-Abad Oblast n=232 Batken Oblast n=98 Osh City n=63 Urban n=436 Urbanicity Rural n=787 Men n=595 Gender Women n=628 Age 18-35 n=618 Age Groups Age 36-55 n=390 Age 56 and older n=214 Satisfaction with Satisfied n=398 Government’s COVID-19 Response Not satisfied n=814 *Cited bases are weighted. Margin of error will vary with sample size n 3 Geographical Key: 7 Oblasts and 2 Cities Bishkek City Issyk-Kul Oblast Chui Oblast Bishkek City Talas Oblast Jalal-Abad Oblast Naryn Oblast Osh Oblast Osh City Osh City Batken Oblast 4 National Outlook In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? All Respondents 41% 53% 6% Age Groups Age 18-35 41% 52% 7% Age 36-55 41% 54% 5% Age 56 and older 40% 54% 5% Gender Men 38% 58% 4% Women 43% 49% 8% Urbanicity Urban 28% 69% 4% Rural 48% 45% 7% Oblast/City Bishkek City 8% 88% 4% Chui Oblast 25% 68% 7% Issyk-Kul Oblast 20% 65% Naryn Oblast 25% 63% 12% Talas Oblast 34% 66% 0% Osh Oblast 49% 49% 2% Jalal-Abad Oblast 68% 31% 1% Batken Oblast 65% 14% 20% Osh City 79% 18% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer 6 In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? To what extent are you satisfied with the government’s response to the coronavirus? Satisfied 69% 27% 4% <1% 33% 67% Satisfied Not satisfied 27% 66% 7% Not satisfied Don't know/Refused to answer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer 7 In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? 100% 90% 80% 70% 65% 65% 66% 62% 63% 63% 60% 59% 60% 58% 57% 56% 54% 52% 52% 58% 50% 52% 53% 48%49% 50% 48% 45% 47% 43% 47% 45% 40% 44% 39% 41% 39%39%39% 37% 38% 38% 36% 30% 30% 33% 29% 30% 25% 31% 29% 28% 28% 27% 20% 23% 23% 17% 10% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 13% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 10% 10% 8% 10% 6% 9% 8% 11% 8% 7% 0% 7% Jul-15 Apr-05 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-14 Sep-11 Mar-06 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Aug-12 Aug-20 Dec-19 Nov-07 Nov-10 Nov-17 Nov-18 May-07 May-09 May-10 May-11 Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/refused to answer *Note: Comparison between August and previous polls should be treated with caution due to differing methodologies. The previous polls were conducted via face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. 8 How would you describe the current economic situation in your household? All Respondents 9% 63% 24% 4% <1% Age Groups Age 18-35 10% 66% 20% 3% <1% Age 36-55 8% 61% 28% 3% <1% Age 56 and older 10% 56% 28% 6% Gender Men 9% 62% 24% 5% <1% Women 10% 64% 24% 3% Urbanicity Urban 10% 57% 30% 4% Rural 9% 66% 21% 4% <1% Oblast/City Bishkek City 4% 49% 41% 6% Chui Oblast 2% 66% 29% 3% Issyk-Kul Oblast 5% 68% 1% Naryn Oblast 55% 41% 4% Talas Oblast 4% 70% 22% 4% Osh Oblast 10% 65% 16% 9% <1% Jalal-Abad Oblast 23% 61% 16% <1% Batken Oblast 4% 85% 10% 1% Osh City 20% 60% 19% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer 9 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted) Economy - unemployment 61% COVID-19/Coronavirus 51% Corruption 49% Healthcare 38% Economy - cost of living 25% Education 24% Economy - other/general 22% Economy - poverty 20% Social services/benefits 16% Migration 15% Internal conflicts 13% Economy - small businesses 11% Agriculture 9% Housing 8% Infrastructure 7% Water 7% Crime/safety 6% External conflicts/war 5% Electricity 4% Environment 3% Natural disasters 3% Terrorism 3% Border issues 2% Malnutrition 2% Other 7% No problem 1% Don't know/Refused to answer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% *Responses receiving less than 2% are collapsed into Other. 10 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; top 10 responses displayed) All Respondents Bishkek City Economy - unemployment 61% Healthcare 70% COVID-19/Coronavirus 51% Corruption 67% Corruption 49% Economy - unemployment 64% Healthcare 38% COVID-19/Coronavirus 52% Economy - cost of living 25% Education 48% Education 24% Internal conflicts 34% Economy - other/general 22% Economy - poverty 27% Economy - poverty 20% Economy - other/general 26% Social services/benefits 16% Economy - cost of living 25% Migration 15% Economy - small businesses 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chui Oblast Issyk-Kul Oblast Economy - unemployment 62% Economy - unemployment 47% Corruption 49% COVID-19/Coronavirus 36% COVID-19/Coronavirus 36% Economy - other/general 31% Economy - other/general 32% Healthcare 29% Economy - cost of living 29% Education 15% Economy - poverty 29% Corruption 15% Healthcare 24% Economy - poverty 14% Social services/benefits 22% Economy - cost of living 13% Education 21% Social services/benefits 11% Economy - small businesses 12% Migration 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 11 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; top 10 responses displayed) All Respondents Naryn Oblast Economy - unemployment 61% Internal conflicts 83% COVID-19/Coronavirus 51% Healthcare 58% Corruption 49% Environment 44% Healthcare 38% Electricity 38% Economy - cost of living 25% Corruption 28% Education 24% Agriculture 25% Economy - other/general 22% External conflicts/war 21% Economy - poverty 20% Infrastructure 20% Social services/benefits 16% COVID-19/Coronavirus 13% Migration 15% Malnutrition 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jalal-Abad Oblast Talas Oblast COVID-19/Coronavirus 63% Economy - unemployment 72% Economy - unemployment 62% COVID-19/Coronavirus 67% Corruption 32% Corruption 55% Healthcare 30% Healthcare 51% Economy - cost of living 26% Economy - cost of living 42% Migration 24% Agriculture 23% Education 19% Social services/benefits 23% Economy - other/general 14% Education 23% Social services/benefits 13% Migration 19% Economy - poverty 12% Infrastructure 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 12 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; top 10 responses displayed) All Respondents Osh City Economy - unemployment 61% Corruption 86% COVID-19/Coronavirus 51% Economy - unemployment 65% Corruption 49% Economy - cost of living 46% Healthcare 38% Economy - small businesses 27% Economy - cost of living 25% Economy - poverty 25% Education 24% Economy - other/general 24% Economy - other/general 22% COVID-19/Coronavirus 22% Economy - poverty 20% Terrorism 10% Social services/benefits 16% Housing 6% Migration 15% Water 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Batken Oblast Osh Oblast Healthcare 73% Economy - unemployment 63% COVID-19/Coronavirus 68% Corruption 53% Economy - unemployment 55% COVID-19/Coronavirus 52% Economy - other/general 40% Migration 27% Corruption 31% Healthcare 25% Agriculture 30% Economy - poverty 23% Social services/benefits 28% Education 20% Infrastructure 22% Economy - cost of living 20% Education
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