The Role of the Eleven-Plus Test Papers and Appeals in Producing Social Inequalities in Access to Grammar Schools
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The role of the eleven-plus test papers and appeals in producing social inequalities in access to grammar schools We use eleven plus test and appeals data obtained from a large local authority to explore how the process of admission to grammar schools produces such a strong social gradient in entry rates. We look at disparities between eleven-plus and subsequent SATs scores by social background for each element of the test. We then turn to whether the headteacher assessment panel seems to help or hinder poor students on the cusp of passing. Our analysis has implications for how to improve access to grammar schools for those from disadvantaged families. Introduction The Conservative Government, led by Theresa May from summer 2016, has stated its intention to remove the existing ban on opening new grammar schools in England, paving the way for the expansion of existing selective provision and new grammar schools in parts of England where they have not been seen for up to 50 years. The stated purpose of this new policy is to make ‘this country a true meritocracy – a country that works for everyone’ (Prime Minister’s Office, 2016). The Secretary of State for Education has stated that ‘lifting the ban that stops communities choosing new selective school places’ is essential if ‘we are to shift up a gear in social mobility in our country’ (Department for Education and The Rt Hon Justine Greening MP, 2017). Politicians’ difficulty is that, in the 163 grammar schools that currently exist, pupils who not eligible for free school meals are around six times more likely to attend than those who are (Cribb et al., 2013). Attendance at one of the 163 remaining grammar schools requires the parent, the child, and often their primary school to make a number of decisions, each of which might contribute to social inequalities in attendance rates. We provide new evidence on how this process works in Kent, a very large local authority in South-East England with 32 selective and 67 non-selective schools. The data allows us to present new, up-to-date evidence on how social disadvantage affects performance in different elements of the test and what types of pupils are successful in the headteacher appeal. Background literature on academic selection Most countries across the world track students into different types of educational institutions at some stage, but the age at which this takes place varies considerably. Economists make clear the trade-offs between the gains to student specialisation and the costs of tracking, with the optimal timing of tracking depending on the skills mix required in the economy (Ariga and Brunello, 2007). The implication of this is that as economies shift towards needing a larger proportion of the workforce with a general, academic education, early (i.e. younger than 15) academic selection of pupils is no longer optimal and can damage GDP through misallocation to tracks (Brunello et al., 2012). Early tracking, such as that seen in Germany and Austria, does not generally raise mean educational attainment in the country and there is some cross-country evidence that is may even reduce it (Hanushek and Wossmann, 2006). But equally, tracking too late may lower average academic performance (Ariga and Brunello, 2007). There are a number of studies that explore the impact of academic selection at age 11 for those areas where it remains in England. All these studies face the same major identification difficulties. Firstly, the local authorities who chose to retain academic selection in the 1960s and 1970s are more affluent than those who did not. Secondly, academic selection itself triggers huge cross local authority movements; one-in-five grammar school students currently cross a local authority border on their journey to school (Allen, 2016a). This in itself is likely the overstate the benefits of selective schooling systems. Finally, selection affects the kind of students who attend private schools in both the primary and secondary sectors, and we lack full demographic and attainment information on private school attendees. As many as 13% of those recently completing their education at grammar schools appear to have attended a private primary school (Nye, 2016). Aside from these identification hurdles, interpretation of estimates is difficult where selective and non-selective systems are highly heterogeneous. Bearing in mind these identification difficulties and the different methods that studies use to address them, the academic studies that do exist generally agree that the remaining selection at age 11 creates both winners and losers. Pupils attending grammar schools make gains in the order of 1/3rd - 2/3rd of a grade per subject, compared to attending a comprehensive school. Pupils attending secondary moderns (i.e. schools where students go who do not pass the eleven-plus exam) achieve lower grades, though perhaps just 1/10th of a grade less per subject (Atkinson et al., 2006; Coe et al., 2008; Levačić and Marsh, 2007). It is often said that, since there are three-times as many pupils in secondary moderns than there are in grammar schools, the overall impact could be zero. However, this would be an incorrect inference that treats grades as falling on a ratio rather than ordinal scale. This estimated loss of attending a secondary modern school is sometimes statistically insignificant though, given how porous county borders make it difficult it is to classify a secondary modern, it would not be surprising if it were seriously attenuated (Allen, 2016b). No study has found that lower attaining students makes academic gains in selective schooling areas. Academic selection necessarily exposes different sets of pupils to quite different peer groups and thus classroom behaviours, which in themselves alter their educational experiences. But Allen (2016c) explains there are likely to be other reasons why disparities in the quality of schooling are greater in selective school areas. Selective systems have far more pronounced inequalities in access to suitably qualified teachers than do non-selective systems. Compared to secondary moderns, grammar schools have fewer unqualified or inexperienced teachers, more teachers with an academic degree in the subject they teach and lower teacher turnover overall. It is still valuable to look to studies that estimate the impact of academic selection for those who were born in 1958 and 1970. The birth cohort studies are incredibly rich, compared to the modern- day studies that rely on administrative data. That said, they do explore the impact of attending a comprehensive school at a time when they were very new; in fact, many cohort members spent time in both selective and comprehensive systems. Furthermore, the secondary moderns were quite different to those operating today because teachers did not necessarily have degrees and students did not sit the same academic qualifications. Galindo-Rueda and Vignoles (2005) do find that the most able pupils in the selective school system did better than those of similar ability in the mixed ability school system, with no negative effects of tracking for low ability students. Dearden et al. (2002) show that, as a consequence, the men (not women) go on to achieve higher wages at age 33. But care with interpretation of findings is needed since those in selective systems also make faster academic progress during primary school, perhaps due to tutoring or because models are poorly specified (Manning and Pischke, 2006). While the literature is quite equivocal about what timing of academic selection produces the distribution of academic attainment that society desires, it is unambiguous about its impact on children who come from more disadvantaged families. Grammar schools, at least as currently set-up in parts of England, cannot benefit the vast majority of children from poorer families because they do not attend them. Just 2.5% of pupils in grammar schools are eligible for free school meals, compared to 8.9% of pupils in the surrounding neighbourhoods and 13.2% of pupils nationally (Andrews et al., 2016). Skipp et al. (2013) shows that these inequalities remain even where we compare pupils who achieve identical Key Stage 2 (KS2) marks at the end of primary schools. The magnitudes of these differences are quite large: they estimate that a free school meals (FSM) pupil achieving a high mark (a level 5) is one third less likely to get in than a similarly high-attaining non-FSM pupil. Burgess et al. (2017) create a socio-economic status index using rich neighbourhood measures based on the pupil’s postcode and from it show that it is really only the very affluent who make to grammar schools in significant numbers. Those at the very top of their SES index (the 99th to 100th percentile) have an 80% chance of attending a grammar; towards the bottom of the SES index (the 20th to 40th percentile) the chances of attending are just 12%. This makes it clear that there are some high attaining pupils from more disadvantaged households who do not make it to a grammar school. Across the world, higher levels of social segregation are associated with the prevalence of academic selection (Jenkins et al., 2008). The consequence of this is that countries with earlier academic selection tend to have greater educational inequality (Hanushek and Wossmann, 2006). In Switzerland, Bauer and Riphahn (2006) show that delaying the timing of academic selection improves educational mobility and reduces the educational advantage of the children of better educated parents. This finding is replicated in a state in Germany where academic selection is delayed for two years compared to the rest of the country, with clear positive effects for pupils with a less favourable family background and for those towards the lower end of the attainment distribution (Mühlenweg, 2008). In England, Chris Cook (2016) shows that pupils living in disadvantaged wards in selective areas have far lower educational outcomes than similar pupils in comprehensive areas.